Evidently, the Pew Research Center has made an astounding discovery in its most recent study of the American electorate. Turns out the political spectrum in this country is fragmented across nine different groups which include: (ibid.)
Solid Liberals (14%)
"Strongly pro-government, support the country's increasing racial and ethnic diversity, and nearly two thirds of whom assert religion isn't that important to them.
Hard-pressed Democrats (13%)
"Very cynical about government and critical of business. Views immigrants as an economic burden and cultural threat."
New Coalition Democrats (10%)
"Strongly pro-government, hospitable to immigrants. Very religious and socially conservative."
Staunch Conservatives (9%)
"Extremely critical of the federal government. Nearly half believe President Obama was born outside the U.S."
Main Street Republicans (11%)
"Highly critical of government. Strongly opposed to abortion and same sex marriage. Mostly opposed to social welfare programs, and generally ngative about immigrants."
Libertarians (9%)
"Economically very conservative but moderate to liberal on social issues. Critical of government interventions."
Disaffecteds (11%)
"Highly critical of government and business. Majority thinks the country can't solve any of it important problems. Religious and socially conservative."
Post-Moderns (13%)
"Generally supportive of government. Very liberal on social issues, including same sex marriagne, but very pro-Wall Street, saying it helps more than hurts."
Bystanders (10%)
"Highly unlikely to vote (61% say they seldom vote though they do voice political opinions). Nearly two fifths have never ever registered to vote."
According to the Pew Research Center:
"These findings are emblematic of the deep polarization that now shapes American politics
But what's amazing to me is why this should be amazing or even news. Of course the country is fractionated in umpteen ways, and I'd warrant the nine groups Pew cites are even an over-simplification. What would one expect when the nation's educational system has become fragmented across school districts (often with highly politicized school boards that even censor school textbooks) with no single set of academic standards or a national curriculum. Thus, a student in Texas or Mississippi would learn something totally different in Biology from a student in New York or Massachusetts. Factor in the divergent cultural and social milieus peculiar to each geographical region, and you have even more intense divides.
The endemic Balkanization doesn't even end there. Once the student has graduated or is out of school, he segregates further by selecting those news organizations, outlets or internet sources that feed into his existing predjudices rather than challenge them. He inevitably becomes - adding in Facebook, Twitter and other media - his own echo chamber. His echoes resonate with those of others of like mind and sympathies, while he avoids those sources and outlets which cause him mental uncertainty, or even anger - by contradicting his deeply held beliefs, most of which are untested.
Then there is inevitably the fractionation of an "elite" group in society, who are better at processing information and hence have much more profound knowledge and insight quotients. They read more (some average 55 books a year and more, and deep stuff, not pabulum) and also are more patient when initial news stories break -waiting for the nonsense and bilge to fall out over days, or longer. John Gapper of The Financial Times (May 5, 'Half-Baked News from Abbottabad') actually refeenced this phenomena in the wake of bin Laden's killing, writing:
"If you are adept at sifting information ...this is all to the good. The elite audience knows more and can sort through the noise to find the signal". Gapper then added that a typical behavior of the elites is always to wait patiently and not swallow whole the first news that emerges in a frenzied 24/7 news cycle.
That's why those who are part of that audience held back and didn't jump at the first news items, including that Obama held his wife in front of himself for "self-protection", and started shooting thereby drawing return fire, and so on. The "elites" smugly understood that those were PR-engineered cover stories almost always came first, and in this case, were not vastly different from the original Pat Tillman bunkum - later found out to be horse manure.
My point is that these disparate ways of treating and dealing with information are part of the reason the electorate divides as it does. In order to have less or zero polarization or difference between the categories, one would need to have a more uniform means of delivering information, as well as a more equally educated or critically trained populace. That would mean more equal education and aptitude, and alas, we simply don't have that.
In terms of extrapolating its study results to next year's election, the Pew Center points to a clash between the "staying power of a conservative movement that flexed its muscles in 2010" versus "the strength of the coalition Obama assembled when he took the White House in 2008." Thus, if conseervatives are at the strength and energy levels they exhibited in November last year, it is absolutely essential that Obama get his coalition to the same level. That means not making major political errors in any of the key states he took. (In my next to last blog I specifically referenced Colorado, and how he stands to lose its nine electoral votes if his DOJ and DEA continues rampaging toward knocking out the state's budding Medical Marijuana businesses. Since he could easily lose five of the states he won last time (VA, FL, OH, IN, NC) this makes Colorado's retention more important. More worrisome has been a Pew Center Associate Director's observation, that Obama's presidency has been the "inverse" of what he expected. As Michael Dimock notes:
"He did just the opposite of what I expected. He didn't galvanize strong support on the Democratic side, and he got the conservatives and Republicans' blood boiling.
These are oversights he can't afford to make in the run-up to the 2012 elections. He needs above all, not to alienate key parts of his coalition or they won't be there to cast votes for him. A particular tragedy if the Repubs sweep both houses of congress too!
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