Showing posts with label Bill Clinton. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bill Clinton. Show all posts

Monday, November 12, 2018

Skewering Peggy Noonan's Twaddle About Dems "Making Deals" With Trump


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"Watch him go, this psychopathic, gaslighting, brat, preening, pious-posing, egomaniac idiot of a president. Some of us watch in awe, plenty of us in disgust.  He can’t be cornered. Never backing down; he always doubles down. If he’s caught lying he tells a bigger lie. If he’s called on hypocrisy he’ll outmaneuver through more audacious hypocrisy. If he’s attacked, he counter-attacks tenfold. He’s a douche bot, a stable genius at only one thing, a one-trick phony."  - Jeremy Sherman, blogging today on smirkingshimp.com

"Rs had a huge structural advantage going into 2018. The fact Ds may net 40 seats is a rout, period. The argument that it's not as bad as Obama's 63-seat loss in 2010 is laughable." Amy Walter

Peggy Noonan's recent WSJ column  (Nov. 10-11, 'America Could Use Some Deals', p. A13) brings into question her own mental stability or at least the validity of her political perceptions. We don't know for certain, but looking back on a number of her previous columns from last year- in which she analogized Trump to a "weepy", drama queen brat beyond any self-control - it is evident she's done a 180 degree about face.  Yes, it is possible for columnists to perform such head snapping changes, but then we must question the basis. Is it an honest turnabout? Or is something more sinister at work, or even a variant of the well-known Stockholm syndrome? Inquiring minds really want to know.

 For example, last year she roasted Trump in her column 'Trump Is Woody Allen Without The Humor' (July 29-30, p. A13), writing:

"The president's primary problem as a leader is not that he is impetuous, brash or naïve.  It's not that he is inexperienced, crude and an outsider.  It's that he is weak and sniveling. It is that he undermines himself almost daily by ignoring traditional norms of American masculinity".

She goes on to clarify what she means (ibid.):

"He's not strong and self-controlled, not low key and determined: he's whiny, weepy and self-pitying . He throws himself sobbing on the body politic. He's a drama queen."


To make her point there was even an accompanying graphic image of a weepy- faced Trump on Mount Rushmore, which she certainly would have had to approve for it to be shown along with her text, i.e.
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Over the past week alone, even before her column appeared, we beheld even more Trump drama queen histrionics. For example, that pathetic news conference, where he lacked even the most minimal mental maturity to acknowledge the massive loss of the House to the Dems. Also, castigating and mocking a CNN reporter (Jim Acosta), who attempted to ask a question - and even siccing a lackey to try to take away his mic, e.g.

Is this presidential behavior? Is this the behavior and mental heft of a person who inspires deal making? What about when he deliberately eschewed a visit to an American cemetery for WWI vets  because it was raining and he didn't want to get his hair wet?  He let John Kelly go in his place, while he holed up in luxury quarters at the American Ambassador's residence in Paris. (He fobbed off his absence with a daft "security" excuse - despite all other leaders being present.  As one U.S. security specialist put it:  "For such an event there are always alternative ways to work around any weather or security issues." )

Is that  dodging of a solemn ceremony marking the 100 -year anniversary of the end of the Great War, presidential behavior? Or is it the behavior of an entitled brat, lout and coward - a "Captain Bonespurs" - who himself dodged military service five times using bone spurs as an excuse?

No, it more falls in line with blogger Jeremy Sherman's take at the top of this post.

Then, over the weekend, we beheld even more infantile, self-obsessed and even cowardly behavior, i.e. trying to undermine our democracy by playing to the Reep goons in FLA when poll workers in Broward country are trying to do a recount in two knife-edge close elections (for Governor, and Senator).  Trump also recklessly (and ignorantly) insinuated himself into the Arizona Senate race, demanding (insanely) a "re-vote", not just a recount. This foolishness prompted Joe Scarborough to weigh in this morning:

  "Again, all of this caravan talk, all of these racist ramblings by the president right before the election - especially attacking Hispanics- he said it was going to have an impact in Nevada and Colorado and it did. He lost.  Trump surprised people in 2016, but now too many believe he will be surprising them for the rest of their lives."

Even in other columns, Noonan acknowledged that Trump - by such childish, divisive and disruptive tactics - was his own worst enemy and not contributing to national civility or unity. Only rank polarization. For example, 2 weeks earlier ('Defuse America's Explosive Politics' Oct. 27-28, p. A1), writing:

"The president knows half the country is watching and dislikes and disdains what it sees. What he doesn't seem to know is that the unstable are watching too. They get revved up, ginned up...there is danger in this."

So what now? She believes since the midterms he's suddenly matured into a real adult? And now because she has suddenly imagined Dotard a statesman the rest of us are supposed to stop in our tracks and welcome "deals".  Dream on, Peggy!

One must ask because now in her recent weekend column we find a serious claim suggesting  this orange  imp has evolved enough for the new Democratic House to be able to make "deals" with him.  Noonan writes, for example (ibid.):

"Democrats should understand the president wants a deal. He's in another circus phase, he needs to show he can roll with history's punches. And there's a sense he actually yearns for greatness."

Peggy, you've either lost your mind or left it in a wine bottle somewhere. Yearns for greatness?  How about yearns for drama queen status like you claimed a year ago? How about acts like an entitled, peevish brat as you've consistently claimed in a number of columns since Dotard's inauguration?

  Or, maybe- being generous -  Noonan is suffering from the conservo variety of Stockholm syndrome.  You know, the variant WSJ op-ed writer Lance Morrow put out there recently ('We've Grown Accustomed To Trump', p. A19, Oct. 19): 

"Trump's peculiarities don't seem unusual when compared with the extreme bizarreness, not to mention pathology, on the Left".

Adding, as if in mindless afterthought:

"People can get used to the strangest things, once the novelty has passed... .Familiarity and the passage of time may breed a certain kind of acquiescence, even grudging acceptance.  We see a touch of the Stockholm syndrome."

So maybe Miss Peggy has just had too much of the Dotard's dyspeptic antics. Perhaps then she can no longer summon the intestinal fortitude or outrage against the slimeball traitor who tries to pass as "president". Perhaps she's bowed and yielded to his craziness like the once outspoken GOP Senate stalwarts - Lindsey Graham and Bob Corker - who had initially criticized his demeanor and base instincts. But have since acquired the spinelessness and silence of little lambs terrified of a big, bad Wolfie.

No wonder, then, she continues down the rabbit hole of her own Stockholm-syndrome ideation, scribbling:

"Do it with him. Newt Gingrich wasn't the friend of the calculating, louche Bill Clinton, and Mr. Clinton didn't like those mean-minded, selfish right wingers. Yet together they made pretty good music."

Peggy here mixes apples and oranges. At least Bill Clinton-  call him out for his lust faults- still possessed a functional brain and  rational mind. This allowed him to have a presidential demeanor - especially when it came to conducting press conferences and policy debates. He wasn't awake at 3 a.m. dashing off wild, insane email insults to political opponents. Or, giving in to  paranoid ideations and half baked conspiracy memes to do with "caravans" or sinister motives behind his political opponents' every action.

Nor did Bill Clinton make everything about himself. In other words, he wasn't a malignant narcissist saddled with a disruptive, bullying persona. It was this maturity and also degree of self-awareness that allowed Clinton to make deals with the Republican opposition which Trump will never be able to do with the Democrats. In fact, we already beheld Trump's incredible immaturity and incapacity for deals some nine months ago, when one day he agreed to a DACA deal with the Dems, then blew it up the next day. That was after watching FOX News and seeing how his cheering gallery was foursquare against it.

Does Peggy seriously believe the Dotard could just change that much in 9 months? Really?

How the hell would any sane, serious D-legislator be able to make a "deal" with such an unstable, mercurial buffoon? Particularly if all of his previous words and actions disclose he's emotionally and mentally unfit to do so? Well, Noonan seems to lack the minimal mental fitness to be able to explain that  - far less how she could also earlier recognize his emotional retardation but now thinks of him as a latter day Winston Churchill. 

Noonan's "Dem deal" argument rests on another daft trope: diminishing the blue wave,  for whom   many cluelsss pundits(e.g. CNN's Jake Tapper) it never occurred. Or to others (WSJ's Kim Strassel) it was confined to "progressive" bastions, thereby revealing again the power of cherrypicking as an art form for pseudo-journalists. To Noonan (ibid.):

"A record 114 million Americans went ot the polls and did what they tend to do in normal presidencies. Since World War II the average loss for the president's party in  a midterm is 30 House seats. Mr. Trump's party appears to have lost 35....This wasn't the registering of a national rejection, more like business as usual."

Huh? And in what parallel universe have you managed to pull out that twaddle? Or was it out of your ass, akin to Trump's modus operandi?  In fact, as Ari Melber  pointed out Saturday night, given the massive machinery of gerrymandering the Republicans had in place, all those House wins, not to mention flipping 7 governorships - represented a massive repudiation of Trump and his policies.

After playing a Jake Tapper clip where he says "This is not a blue wave, this is not something that is knocking out all sorts of Republican incumbents."    Melber responds:

"That was on election night. Did we hear that right? The point is this is not which particular people missed the wave, or hyped early predictions instead of waiting to hear what voters actually said.  Many outlets in the press did that, including the Washington Post, and we rely on their reporting all the time.

All of this matters because some of the media still don't get it. The media mistake in 2016 was not predicting in the wrong direction, it was trying to predict the outcome at all. And now pundits think their mistake was under estimating Trump in their predictions, and now they're correcting that by underestimating the blue wave in their predictions.  Guess what?  They're all still predicting instead of listening."

In other words, the pundits are still doing ex post facto predictions, as opposed to learning directly from voters what transpired, in conjunction with the actual data.  No wonder there's so much gobbledegook about the blue wave, including that there was no massive repudiation of the human maggot in the White House.  As Melber goes on to say, while presenting a graph of 4-yearly election results:

"Listen to the voters, who we only get to hear from every two or four years, and we can hear them rejecting Trump. And choosing Democrat in every race in the past twenty -six years except one. And rejecting Trumpism roundly this week."

(Showing a graph - histogram - indicating  6.1 percent more Americans voted Democratic in the 2018 House race.)

This is also where Noonan's superficial trope of "normal" results in midterms flounders, because she takes no account of the more sophisticated gerrymandering (using micro data from voters and computer models) that has come into play. As pointed out by guest Lawrence O'Donnell:

"Flipping the House is the hardest thing you can do in politics by far,  especially when the party in power is capable of the kind of gerrymandering we've seen. We're talking twenty first century gerrymandering.  In the twentieth century for example they didn't have computer modeling. They didn't have all the assets, and all the incredible micro-data about the individual voters. So the twenty-first century Republicans are the best gerrymanderers in history. So to run against that and somehow pull out a win is huge. And even where they didn't pull out wins they made every Republican in the country feel insecure.  If you are not safe as a Republican senator in Texas then you are not safe anywhere.  So these are massive changes."

All this shows how little Peggy Noonan knows that she can write such pablum about there being no real rejection. As Lawrence O'Donnell put it, "Given the economy was doing well, it wasn't the economy the voters were rising against it was Donald Trump.".

  But even that blue wave "down spin"  pales beside the next set of  Noonan balderdash:

"The Democrats will launch new probes, in part  because they can't help themselves. It's in their DNA and they're all jacked up on Watergate retrospectives in which the herioic congressman finds the searing truth.."

Uh no, you stupid ninny.  The Dems will launch probes because they are long overdue. Because the GOP lapdogs and quislings have simply bent over for Dotard and not done one thing to check his most abominable policies - whether on DACA,  separating immigrant families and locking kids up, or using his office as an ATM, along with his Trump Hotel not far from the WH. And let's not even get into how he's kept his tax returns under wraps, like the still unreleased files from the JFK assassination.

The Democrats, in other words, will finally ensure our government is divided as the Founders intended, as opposed to a rubber stamp,  one party state run by an unqualified, TV- Twitter addicted,  tyrant dictator - as well as a traitor.  But it is delusional patter like this that allows Noonan to try to make the specious argument that they need to make deals with Dotard.  Hell, she even offers this bit of "advice" after insisting that a "better path" than "fruitless fighting" (recall Noonan is the one who originally called Trump a whiny brat!):

"But Democrats first need to change their style."

Referring to  abandoning "post-Clintoniam era hissing at hearings and wearing pink hats making them look like fools."

Wait! You are conflating Dem LAWMAKERS in the House with the people  - the American women mainly -  that Dotard has repeatedly insulted. But they aren't the ones in a position to make deals with Trump, you ignoramus!   These "pink hats" women (who you  blithely call "fools")  are the ones who just sent a real  blue wave message to your new hero's sorry,  maggot ass, i.e.  that pussy grabbing will not be rewarded!

But see, her conflation of House reps  like Adam Schiff et al (who will actually wield the power to conduct probes) with the Democratic voters - who've had to put up with Trump's antics the past 2 years -  serves her purpose of scapegoating Dem legislators.  It was this last spiel insulting millions of American women that made me believe she's not so much mentally deficient now, as showing she's been a Trump lackey all along.  All those columns blasting his weepy, childish, selfish ways? Mere posturing to try to pretend - or have her readers pretend - that she's "objective".

This is in many ways as off the wall and detached from reality as the losing GOP faction here in Colorado (victims of a real blue tsunami not just wave) wailing in the press (Denver Post yesterday, p. 1A) how badly they lost, and ruminating on the changes they need to make - especially with independent (unaffiliated) voters who now comprise the largest voter segment in CO.

True to their clueless, intellectually unmoored form, we see them arguing - as Jeff Hunt (president of the conservtive Centennial Institute did,-   that, get this:

 "Conservatives need to do a better job of translating Trump to the state's unaffiliated voters."

As if these unaffiliated voters - like yours truly -don't already know Trump is a deranged, self-serving, authoritarian asshole. In other words, we need no "translation" of this odious imp, we just need him out of our lives.  But those like Noonan and Hunt will never ever see that. Only that if they must explain the Dotard a wee bit better for the rest of us - the sane (but enraged and outraged) contingent. Newsflash! No amount of "translation" or explanation will make us detest Trump any less, or make him acceptable. He isn't fit to barter for the preservation of junkyard dogs, far less make deals with the Democrats.

In fact, only one Colorado Republican  (Ken Buck) in that Denver Post piece had the honesty and fortitude to tell the unvarnished truth of why the GOP lost big in the Centennial State:

"Republicans have lost their brand. For example, the party claims to be fiscally conservative but it has racked up a trillion dollar deficit"

In other words, the Repukes have joined themselves to Trumpism, so much so they have mutated to become Trump's party- and only a sallow, pitiful shadow of what a proper conservative party used to be.  Trump and his lackeys like Noonan and Hunt will likely say the only way for their corrupt party to survive is to finally tie their fates to his will and insanity.  Then castigate Democrats for finally reinstating a government of checks and balances.

But that way lies a complete debacle in 2020 when we finally get rid of Trump, Trumpism and the GOP mutants and toadies that now feed off Dotard's toxic effluent - as they pollute  our national media  landscape. And splinter the body politic into rival warring tribes.


See also:



And:

Europe is "Praying That Trump is a One-Term President"

Tuesday, September 4, 2018

If Not For A Skank Named Linda Tripp, Bill Clinton Never Would Have Been Impeached

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The "most hated woman in America" - Linda Tripp - after the skank ilegally taped Monica Lewinsky and released the tapes to Ken Starr.

As confirmation hearings for Brett Kavanaugh are set to open this week it is well to bear in mind he worked for Kenneth Starr, the infamous lawyer who led the "Whitewater"  investigation of President Bill Clinton in the 1990s. Kavanaugh, as we've also since learned - was one of Clinton's most outrageous inquisitors even interrogating him on the amount of ejaculate he produced with each liaison with Monica Lewinsky. Now seriously, is it any wonder Ms. Lewinsky had the sense she was born with when she walked out of an interview yesterday when the prissy media idiot asked if "you expect a personal apology"?   Lewinsky said she "can't do this" as she walked off the stage- realizing her dalliance with Clinton was as a grown, mature woman who made her own choices - not a puppet tool or victim who merits a "personal apology".

Kenneth Starr  himself was honest and forthright - at least for one sentence- when he wrote  in his WSJ Review piece ('The Impeached President',  Aug. 30-31, p. C1):

"I deeply regret that I took on the Lewinsky phase of the investigation."

But adding:

"As I still see it 20 years later, there was no practical alternative to not doing so."

But in truth, there was.  However, that would have meant refusing to make use of an illegally procured tape made by a virago named Linda Tripp, who violated Maryland state law by obtaining not just one - but multiple  tape recordings  (over the phone)  without the knowledge or consent of her friend Monica Lewinsky.

 Later (p. C2) Starr writes that the "sun could have set on the whole Whitewater investigation" but for the choices subsequently made, i.e.  when a phone call  came into the prosecutor's office on Jan. 12, 1998.  As he informs us:

"Prosecutor Jackie Bentley was working at our office about 9 p.m. when he got a phone call from a woman who at first declined to give her name. 'So let me get this straight', Jackie said into the phone, 'You've tape recorded calls from a woman who had an affair with the president? '

"Jackie asked her a few questions. Then the woman dropped a bomb: "You know me, I'm Linda Tripp. I was a witness in the Vince Foster case ...Foster was the lawyer in the White House Counsel's office who had committed suicide in July 1993. Tripp had been Foster's executive assistant.

"Tripp explained that Monica Lewinsky, a White House intern , had struck up a relationship with the president during the government shutdown in November, 1996, when interns manned the phones and delivered documents. Lewinsky, then 22, and Clinton began having sexual trysts in a hallway off the Oval Office.  Working at the Pentagon the following summer, Lewinsky began confiding in Tripp."

But this confiding occurred because Monica trusted Tripp and was woefully  unaware of the nature of the two -bit skank with whom she shared her most intimate secrets.  With "friends" like that you don't need enemies.  Ironically, while Monica was mature enough to make her own sexual choices she appeared to need a crash course into the psyches of human detritus and vermin like Tripp.

As most of us who were alive at the time know, Starr couldn't get gnatshit out of  sawdust in the Whitewater investigation so had to pursue the irrelevant angle of Clinton's sex life- thanks to Tripp's  interjection of criminally- obtained tapes. . Evidently, neither Starr nor his lackey Jackie , was smart or perceptive enough to ask if Tripp violated Maryland law in making the tape. Some prosecutors!

 That phone call at 9 pm. on Jan. 12, 1998 then should have been a total dead end. Either Starr  himself or a separate court ought to have disallowed the use of secretly made phone tapes of  confidential conversations with Monica Lewinsky by Tripp.   Tripp lived in Columbia, MD at the time-  where wifey and I also resided - and it was widely known Tripp violated Maryland statutes against taping phone conversations without informing the taped party.  Technically then, the Lewinsky tapes (Tripp incited Monica for more and more details at each taping)  ought to have been inadmissible. But Ken Starr disregarded the law when it suited him and used said tapes to trap Clinton in a lie ("I did not have sex with that woman!") which then became the basis for his impeachment.

It was the Starr Report, co-authored by our little wannabe SC weasel Kavanaugh, which laid out the  spurious case for Clinton’s impeachment and removal from office, based on Lewinsky's illegally- obtained taped spiels with Tripp, i.e. about a blow job and soiled dress.  After the case broke, and Ken Starr emerged as "special prosecutor" no one believed it would go anywhere, since Starr would not be able to use illegally obtained evidence. As it turned out, after Kavanaugh signed on as a Starr stooge and Clinton inquisitor, it didn't really matter. It turned out some laws could be ignored.  Despite that, Starr in his WSJ piece clearly had misgivings about his investigatory reach as when he writes:

"I turned to those who had authorized me, asking them to weigh in. I complained that the Justice Department should either rally to our defense, or if I had in their view gone off the rails, Attorney General Reno should fire me. But Reno didn't fire me nor did she defend me. This was moral cowardice."

TO which I concur.  At the end of the day, Reno ought to have given Starr and his odious  team the boot, given they had invoked illegal evidence (Tripp's taped recordings)  to justify going after Bill Clinton. Case closed.  Unlike the current Mueller investigation, pursuing actual conspiracy with a foreign adversary to gain power,  the Clinton 'blue dress' evidence really did constitute a "witch hunt".  This is given Tripp's nefarious role and now we've since learned the roles of other Reich wing apparatchiks. 

Barely more than a year after that phone call to Bentley, a lengthy, documented account emerged (see e.g.  'The Right Wing Web', February 22, 1999, Newsweek, p.34)  about a NY Reep media mole (associated with Alfred Regnery and the Regnery press) named Lucianne Goldberg.   To jog readers' memories, Regnery has been famous for publishing such classics as:










According to a TIME expose piece ('Read and Right', Sept. 17, 2012,  p. 16), the number one publisher of anti-Obama books was Regnery Publishing Inc

Anyway, according to the Newsweek article, it was Goldberg who knew Tripp was friends with Lewinsky, and egged her on to surreptitiously record phone calls with Monica concerning her sexual contacts with Bill. This sordid sleaze tactic kind of reminds us of many other Right wing dirty tricksters, from Lee Atwater, to Nixon "ratfuckers" Roger Stone and G. Gordon Liddy, and more recently (2015) the CMP bunch that infiltrated Planned Parenthood to make surreptitious (and specious)  "fetal tissue"  videos.

In other words, the information that drove Kenneth Starr to go after Bill Clinton (despite his second thoughts)  was tainted from the get go - not only by the sources instigating the release of the info - to use Tripp to call Starr's office on that January night in 1998. But the whole Right wing web that was determined to try to bring his presidency crashing down and repeal the votes of millions.  There is no analogy, not one, with the current Mueller team investigation, and anyone who seeks to make an equivalence ought to be recognized as an untrustworthy actor in the public communication sphere. 

Tuesday, July 10, 2018

Kavanaugh Not The Worst SC Pick - But He Still Merits Scrutiny - Not A Rubber Stamp

Brett Kavanaugh
While Brett Kavanaugh is the least deplorable Trump SC pick, that doesn't mean he gets a free ride.


Well, today much of liberaldom can breathe a (small) sigh of relief that Donnie Dotard didn't select Amy Coney Barrett (previous post) as the Justice to replace Anthony Kennedy. As I noted, the selection of Coney Barrett would have amounted to a judicial travesty no less disastrous than the Bush Sr. choice of Clarence Thomas in 1991.  So, perhaps before the left gets hysterical over the Kavanaugh pick it needs to bear in mind Trump's choice could have been way worse.

Of course, to a patient notified he's actually contracted  dysentery,  as opposed to cholera, this is small consolation.

For those who may not know, Brett Kavanaugh worked in the Bush Jr. White House before being nominated to the DC court of appeals in 2003. He was confirmed in 2006 after Democrats mounted a long fight against his nomination on the grounds that Kavanaugh was overly partisan.  That take was not completely unjustified given Kavanaugh worked for Ken Starr, the infamous lawyer who led the "Whitewater"  investigation of President Bill Clinton in the 1990s.

As most of us who were alive at the time know, Starr couldn't get gnatshit out of the Whitewater investigation so had to pursue the irrelevant angle of Clinton's sex life. That also would have been a total dead end had Starr been disallowed the use of secretly made (criminally made) phone tapes of  confidential conversations with Monica Lewinsky by one Linda Tripp.   Tripp lived in Columbia, MD at the time-  where wifey and I also resided - and it was widely known Tripp (who worked at the Pentagon as a high grade gopher) violated Maryland statutes against taping phone conversations without informing the taped party.  Technically then, the Lewinsky tapes (Tripp incited Monica for more and more details at each taping)  ought to have been inadmissible. But Ken Starr disregarded the law when it suited him and used said tapes to trap Clinton in a lie ("I did not have sex with that woman!") which then became the basis for his impeachment.

Kavanaugh also helped author the Starr Report, which laid out the  spurious case for Clinton’s impeachment and removal from office, based on Lewinsky's illegally- obtained taped spiels with Tripp, i.e. about a blow job and soiled dress.. To make matters worse, Kavanaugh also did legal work for the Bush campaign during the Florida election recount.

Recall in that 2000 election, Jeb Bush had the voter lists scrubbed of tens of thousands of Afican Americans, who by a majority vote Dem. Greg Palast documented this  in his book,  'The Best Democracy Money Can Buy' detailing how 90,000 and probably more like 180,000 legal black voters were removed from voter lists in Florida, using the ruse that convicted felons can not vote in that state. Jeb Bush awarded the contract to the firm that submitted the higher bid, Choicepoint.  It then scrubbed from the voter rolls all names that were clearly black (e.g. first name Jamail, Devante or Kinesha,  for instance), that bore an arguable resemblance to a felon’s name.   End result? The SC handed the FLA electoral votes to Bush Jr.   Even Vince Bugliosi, who later blew it in a 2,500 page tome on the Kennedy assassination, got this one right. That was  embodied in his 2001 book, 'The Betrayal of America: How the Supreme Court Undermined the Constitution and Chose Our President'.

All of this in concert peeved Democrats no end, as it should have.

Alas, Kavanaugh is also a Roman Catholic - like Amy Coney Barrett - and he  discussed his Catholic faith last night in his acceptance blurb, proclaiming: “I am a proud member of the Catholic community in DC.”  Providing this disclosure while noting the priest for whom he served as an altar boy was in attendance for the announcement.    The good thing is he doesn't go in for speaking in tongues or getting esoteric divine messages.  The bad thing is abortion rulings could still be an issue for him. Or rather for those of us who defend a woman's right to abortion.

We already know, for example, that last fall Kavanaugh wrote a decision siding with Trump administration lawyers to block a migrant teenager in Texas from being released from custody to get an abortion.  He also criticized his colleagues for "creating a new right for unlawful immigrant minors in U.S. government detention to obtain an abortion on demand."  If Kavanaugh had been successful, he'd have pushed the teen into her second trimester.  Reinforcing this position, Kavanaugh also wrote,  “the Government has permissible interests in favoring fetal life, protecting the best interests of a minor, and refraining from facilitating abortion"

So the jury is still out on his abortion stance, and yes, that ought to concern pro-choice folks.

At the same time, let's bear in mind the guy is almost like kryptonite for social conservatives.   Indeed, many of those groups have warned that Kavanaugh is "insufficiently conservative", citing decisions on Obamacare and abortion where they have felt that he did not go far enough in his opinions. In particular, they cite a 2011 ruling in which he dissented from a decision that the Affordable Care Act was constitutional solely on jurisdictional grounds and not as a matter of law. The American Family Association, a prominent fundamentalist Christian group, came out on Monday night against Kavanaugh’s nomination because his “reasoning on religious liberty, Obamacare and issues concerning life have proven to be of major concern”.

That social conservo knock was more than good enough for many libs (including me) to assert Kavanaugh to be the least of four potential evils. Again, try to think of it  not as conferring kudos but as electing to contract dysentery instead of cholera, Ebola or smallpox.

Still there are other issues that invite strong scrutiny of  Kavanaugh, especially given his views on whether presidents (like Traitor Trump) can be indicted or even impeached.  This is critical in light of Robert Mueller’s continuing investigation into possible collusion between Russia and the Trump campaign.  Indeed, Sharilynn Ifill speaking last night (on 'All In')  before the announcement, noted it is an anomaly of the first order to have a likely criminal president making a Supreme Court pick at this time (perhaps weeks before being cited as an unindicted co-conspirator in the Russia probe),

 Thus, it is eminently justified that Kavanaugh face tough questions about his views on whether sitting presidents can face criminal investigation. For example, Senate Dems can cite a 2009 law review article, in which he stated that impeachment was an adequate safeguard “if a president does something dastardly” writing:

“The President’s job is difficult enough as it is. And the country loses when the President’s focus is distracted by the burdens of civil litigation or criminal investigation and possible prosecution.”

Aww...boo hoo hoo, cry me a river, do.   But see we aren't talking about a normal, legitimate president here, but a buffoon and layabout who spends most of each day watching cable TV (FOX News) and tweeting. A guy who can't even be bothered to read his daily briefs and has spent more time now away from the White House - playing golf or hobnobbing at Mar-a-lago and Bedminster, than all previous presidents put together.   THIS is a doofus whose focus is already distracted and besides, wouldn't know how to do the damned job even if someone tried to donate a teaching video. ("The Presidency  101").

Hell, five days into his presidency he  even bawled that the job had  turned out to be too much for him to face. Too many details, too much stuff to master for an extensive government bureaucracy.  Hence, his penchant for becoming a cable TV and tweet addict. See e.g.

http://theconcourse.deadspin.com/donald-trump-stunned-to-learn-presidency-is-an-actual-j-1792215349

Excerpt:

Being president is harder than Donald Trump thought,” begins the article, neatly capturing the blithe, criminal ignorance that characterizes both Trump himself and the many dozens of millions of morons who thought he should be the leader of the free world. Yes, being the president is a harder job than Donald Trump would expect, because Donald Trump had never previously held an actual job, because actually, spending your inheritance on a succession of failed cons is not an actual job."

The irony is that this consummate  asshole who is also a likely traitor,  selects a 53-year-old who has impeccable academic credentials and has authored over 286 opinions.  Unfortunately, one of those could grant Trump a "get out of jail free" card if somehow the culmination of the Russia probe reaches the Supreme Court.

Thus, the Dems must be as sure as much as they can be that Kavanaugh will act as an independent justice, and not seek to exonerate Trump because his job is "difficult enough as it is".   As per an op-ed in the NY Times:

"Fair questions would include inquiries not just about Judge Kavanaugh’s past writings and activities but also about how he believes various past notable judicial cases (such as Roe v. Wade) should have been decided — and even about what his current legal views are on any issue, general or specific."

The specific questions that ought to be considered by the Judiciary Committee, start with his opinion piece on relieving presidents of strong legal blowback, i.e., in terms of being questioned by Trump prior to the announcement:

"What were you asked about this article? What did you say? What assurances did you offer? What kind of things did the White House want to know?"

This is given Kavanaugh is the only person on Trump's short list who specifically wrote that  presidents should have protection from investigations. If it can be ascertained he was pumped by Trump to bolster that opinion or act on it (in Trump's case),  protecting Trump from a Mueller subpoena, the Dems need to full bore oppose it.

See also:

http://www.smirkingchimp.com/thread/bill-blum/80068/brett-kavanaugh-trump-s-supreme-court-pick-will-drive-u-s-law-hard-to-the-right

And:

http://www.smirkingchimp.com/thread/cody-fenwick/80067/5-things-you-should-know-about-trumps-supreme-court-pick-brett-kavanaugh

Friday, April 27, 2018

Elitists Need An "Excuse" To Slam Trump? How About Just Watching This A-Hole In Action - Like On FOX Yesterday

Image result for Trump rage images
"I'll call Fox and Friends any time and sound off! I'm da Prez!"

One of the ongoing concerns of media and culture analysts (e.g.  David Frum in 'Trumpocracy - The Corruption of the American Republic') is that the thing occupying the White House will have its behavior "normalized" and become more and more accepted. One of the first putative signs of this would be a steady diminution of outrage, people no longer willing or able to call this degenerate on anything - or even use epithets to describe him.  That is a point many suspect we're rapidly reaching.

It doesn't help either to have Rightist, Trump ass- lickers like the WSJ's William McGurn ('The Elitists' Trump Excuse', yesterday, p. A 11) insisting it's all liberal and media "elitist" huff and puff because we disdain "Trump's brand of vituperation".  In other words, we attack the Trump Thing because of its constant attacks on the values, virtues and norms that  "democracy requires to survive."

Thus, like Jim Comey, we declare this maggot is "morally unfit" for the Oval Office. In fact, many of us go beyond Comey and declare this loathsome loser and con man is mentally unfit to hold office of any kind, even dog catcher in Podunk, Arkansas.  As 'Exhibit A' you need look no further than the 31 minute insane rant Dotard unleashed yesterday morning on Fox and Friends, e.g.

But hell, don't just take my word, watch it and make up your own mind.  At the end of it you tell me if you really, truly believe this type of unhinged behavior is presidential in any measure, or that it doesn't degrade the office as well as the person holding it - not to mention the country. Think before you answer! Can you really visualize a President Obama calling in to MSNBC's "Morning Joe"  to deliver such an extended rant, or a JFK or FDR?    Let me back up, visualize any other president calling in an extended TV rant when he's supposed to be doing the work of the country?   (As one former FBI agent put it on 'All In', "That's the time he's supposed to be going over the nation's security issues in the Presidential Daily Briefs!")

If you can imagine another president - even Gee Dumbya Bush-  doing the same, then you inhabit a different universe from the one I'm in.

To put a perspective on it, even the illustrious Steve Doocy - main anchor of the FOX trio - and most famous for burning his hands while trying to roast marshmallows, actually trying to cut the Dotard off after 28 minutes, saying "Mr. President, we know you have a MILLION things to do...."    Well, evidently not.

But the blowhard imbecile kept on ranting for another 3 minutes before the station had to pull the plug on the fool, with the Fox trio saying "Adios".

But why be surprised? We knew from this time last year the piece of waste occupying the office hates to work, he'd rather loaf, watch TV, tweet and rant.  Recall 'the Donald' has never really worked at a real job outside of owning his family branding business (who could order anyone to do his bidding) and being a NY real estate weasel who used bankruptcy (of multiple casinos) to make more $$$.  Hell, five days into his presidency he  even bawled that the job had  turned out to be too much for him to deal with. Too many details, too much stuff to master for an extensive government bureaucracy.  Hence, his penchant for becoming a cable TV and tweet addict. See e.g.

http://theconcourse.deadspin.com/donald-trump-stunned-to-learn-presidency-is-an-actual-j-1792215349

Excerpt:

Being president is harder than Donald Trump thought,” begins the article, neatly capturing the blithe, criminal ignorance that characterizes both Trump himself and the many dozens of millions of morons who thought he should be the leader of the free world. Yes, being the president is a harder job than Donald Trump would expect, because Donald Trump had never previously held an actual job, because actually, spending your inheritance on a succession of failed cons is not an actual job."

 But hey, if the job is too much maybe he ought to resign
. It beats wasting time tweeting, watching TV for nine hours a day, and ranting like a nut railing about UFO "invasions" on talk radio.  Or as one MSNBC guest put it on 'All In' last night: "The rant reminded me of my Uncle Willy who calls in to sports radio and unloads his bile every other day."


Anyway, McGurn asks in his op-ed piece:

"So which is more damaging to the American body politic - the schoolyard taunts and threats of Trump, or the anti-Trump opportunism of 'polite' society?"

But given the opposition  of "polite society" - i.e. that which upholds and values norms, decency and decorum-  is the only edifice standing against normalizing Trump, that's an easy call.  As David Frum has put it in his book, the longer Trump remains in office the greater  the corruption of our democracy. This is  because his behavior becomes more and more accepted, as outrage is lessened ("too much to be outraged over")- until daily rants on FOX ("Trump TV") become a way of governing. This we cannot allow, whether McGurn and his ilk like it or not.

McGurn's other complaints - as if  we "elites"  are trying to impose fascism on the Trumpies,  are all red herrings. Examples:

- "Good liberals once found the idea of spying on American citizens without just cause unconscionable... But when the target becomes a former Trump campaign associated, it becomes OK."

Hold strain there, Willy.  Carter Page was ID'd  as a suspected foreign (Russian-linked) agent long before U.S. FISA warrants were issued to monitor him. This was by way of foreign intercepts of his assorted meetings with Russian FSB, GRU etc. agents.  For the U.S. then not to do anything would have made our own intel agencies appear slack and incompetent.

McGurn again:

"James Clapper revised procedures to make it easier to unmask Americans  in intelligence reports, and share the information, making leaks all but inevitable. The illegal leak of Mike Flynn's name in connection with a phone conversation with Russia's ambassador was one result."

C'mon, Willy, pull your head out of your fat ass.  Going after Flynn was perfectly justified given he was wheeling and dealing with the Russkies, via phone calls, and  after Obama had imposed sanctions, and even before the Trump cabal had assumed office.  Besides, Flynn's calls were again picked up via foreign intel intercepts which were forwarded to the CIA, NSA etc. For our intel agencies to do nothing while foreign agencies monitored Flynn, Carter Page and others would have been irresponsible.

McGurn ends by writing:

"The point to the double standard isn't in any way to justify Mr. Trump's more boorish displays. It is, however, to say that the standard ought to work both ways."

But by resorting to false analogy McGurn is indeed justifying Trump's more boorish ways.  He's saying in effect we have no right to cast "stones' of opprobrium at this mental and moral misfit because we've allowed greater "sins"  of omission and commission to go unanswered. Seeming to forget or dismiss the fact that Bill Clinton was impeached based on illegal wiretaps made by then Columbia, MD resident and Pentagon flunky, Linda Tripp - when MD law expressly  made recording phone calls a felony without notifying the other person on the line (in this case one Monica Lewinsky).   Ken Starr, then special prosecutor, used those illegal phone recordings to go after Clinton - with the Reepos jumping on the illegal wiretap bandwagon to hang him out to dry.

So don't hand me any BS about "double standards".  Trump, by not only flouting standards but breaking laws as well (e.g. obstruction of justice) merits at least impeachment, and probably indictment as well.


See also:


https://www.cnn.com/2018/04/26/opinions/trump-fox-news-interview-dantonio-intl/index.html

And:

http://www.smirkingchimp.com/thread/p-m-carpenter/78895/trumps-latest-meltdown

Excerpt:

"The NY Times' reporting, however, captured a president in mental and emotional free fall, such as, "Even the Fox hosts seemed concerned as the president railed at length about the 'fake news' media. 'I’m not your doctor, Mr. President, but I would recommend you watch less of them,' one of the hosts, Brian Kilmeade, told him.""

Wednesday, November 29, 2017

Has The Stock Market Dodged A "Bullet" In The "Unlucky Sevens" Streak? NOT If The Reep Tax Cuts Are Passed!

No photo description available.
Graph showing the stock crashes for years ending in '7'. (From The Wall Street Journal, p. B18, Oct. 18)

Many headlines have been generated in the past nine months or so warning of an imminent stock market correction or even crash.  Such headlines have included:

'A Case For The Bulls Is Hard To Warrant' - James Mackintosh

E'verything Is Awesome! Now Is The Time To Sell Your Stock' - James Mackintosh

'Warning Signs Mount As Stocks Stumble'   WSJ,  'Business & Finance', Aug.. 21

'Crashes Are Inevitable But That Doesn't Mean Now'  (WSJ, Oct. 9)

Perhaps the pithiest advice offered in these assorted stories was by Mackintosh in his 'time to sell your stocks' piece, noting:

"Investors believe that bear markets only come with recessions, and so reassure themselves that there is no sign a recession is imminent, repeating the mantra that 'economic cycles don't die of old age'. Unfortunately, this is both wrong and useless.

First, 20 percent drops happen outside recessions, as in 1987 and 1966. Second, economic cycles can be killed by a financial crash, and as the late Hyman Minsky pointed out, the longer a financial cycle goes on, the more likely it is to turn to excess and end badly. Worse, there is no reliable method of forecasting a recession, so even if it were true that only a recession can end a bull market, that isn't a lot of use to investors."

Adding:

"When everything is awesome it is best to prepare for things being a little less awesome in the future, even at the cost of missing out on some of the gains."

A few months earlier, Mackintosh's column was preceded by one  ('Do You Have The Stomach For The Next Stock Crash? ) in The Denver Post Business Section, written by Charlie Farrell, the CEO of Northstar Investment Advisors LLC,  wherein he writes:

"For the past eight years, investors have enjoyed a steadily increasing stock market. Memories of the 2008 crisis have largely faded and many investors have forgotten that sinking feeling. But if you want to avoid the mistakes investors made during the last crisis, you should start thinking bad thoughts. Yes., bad thoughts. Start training your brain and your guts for the next stock market decline. Why? Because big stock market crashes and declines happen and they pose a big threat to your wealth."

Of course, Farrell is quite correct and it's been literally known since the birth of the stock market that  all bull markets end in veritable crashes, the purpose of which is a massive transfer of wealth to the upper crust . (See e.g. George P. Brockway,  'The End Of Economic Man'). 

SO there have been endless warnings, some of which have come to pass, i.e. such as those who were correct about the October, 1987 stock crash.   But what about the more recent one in 2008? Too many members of the "dismal science" missed it, perhaps because they didn't put 2 + 2 together to grasp that years of the Bush tax cuts - taking place during de facto 'war time' - preceded it.  Add to that the fact that a bubble had been created and you had all the elements necessary for a crash. All that was needed was a 'trigger' and that was provided by the infusion of financial toxic waste known as credit default swaps. These unstable instruments (buried in bonds) found their way into everything from collateralized mortgage obligations to pension fund investments and most were classified as 'AAA' despite the fact there was no basis to do so.

The failure of the credit agencies themselves to be onto the junk bond nature of CMOs and allowing the presence of fractions of  toxic  CDS bonds in each – then designating the whole AAA - led directly to the collapse of the credit markets in 2008. The realization of their presence across the financial spectrum triggered a credit freeze then crash. (See e.g. http://brane-space.blogspot.com/2008/12/financial-black-hole.html )

Fast forward now to the latest take: that the current market may well be on its way to defying a nasty "unlucky -sevens" trend (WSJ, 'Market's Unlucky -Sevens Streak In Danger', p. B18, Oct. 18). What ate we talking about? Basically, a pattern that has held for U.S. blue chip stocks for at least the last 130 years.

Specifically (ibid.):

"For the past 13 times that a year has ended in seven, going back to 1887, the Dow Jones Industrial Average or its predecessor has suffered a sharp downturn at some point between August and November. The average downturn has been a little over 13 percent according to the research firm Leuthold Group."

The piece by Spencer Jakab goes on to note:

"The most memorable of those drops was 30 years ago. The 1987 stock market crash sent the Dow tumbling 22.6 %, its worst single day percentage loss ever, including a selloff that began earlier and wiped 36 percent off the Dow's value."

So the gist of Jakab's piece is this unlucky streak is "in jeopardy".  But is it really?

The problem with all pattern -based reasoning or templates is that there is no bearing on actual causes, and causal relations. Theodore Moois, the author of the monograph 'Predictions', for example, (p. 156), observes that the factors that most impacted the 1987 crash were the energy oscillations at that time in terms of energy prices, relation to consumption, and lack of investment in new jobs. In particular "stock market plunges manifest themselves during the downward trend of the energy oscillation and hence correspond to a downturn in the economic cycle".

Let us also note in conjunction with this that the 1987 crash occurred after a major tax cut was enacted via the Economic Recovery Tax Act in 1981.  Included in the act was an across-the-board decrease in the marginal income tax rates in the United States by 25% over three years, with the top rate falling from 70% to 50% and the bottom rate dropping from 14% to 11%.  The cut itself may not have been as toxic, but Reagan also launched a $2.2 trillion defense spending spree - effectively burning the fiscal candle at both ends.  This, I believe, set the stage for the 1987 crash.

The 2008 crash occurred after years of the Bush tax cuts which drove the deficit even higher and also:  "The 2000s- that is the period immediately following the Bush tax cuts – were the weakest decade in U.S. postwar history for real, non-residential capital investment. Not only were the 2000s by far the weakest period but the tax cuts did not even curtail the secular slowdown in the growth of business structures."  (Financial Times analysis, in 9/15/10)

What one must conclude is that while the credit meltdown with CDS infusion was the proximate trigger for the 2008 crash, the Bush tax cuts were the effective distal cause - specifically on account of the lack of investment, which itself created an "energy sink" in terms of the transactions between workers-consumers and employers.  Because many workers barely benefitted from the cuts , millions had to go into credit card and other debt to make up for the dearth in earnings. Much of this was needed for health care, and utilities. The narrow vision of these tax cuts -  like the current ones on offer (giving those making over $5m /year a $200k cut) left the jobs-energy landscape as a wasteland. Also, the bubble created - including by selling millions of sub-prime mortgages to borrowers who couldn't really afford them, paved the way to a crash.

For reference, the top marginal tax rate during the Bush years (for income tax) was reduced to 36% from the 39.5% during the 1990s Clinton Years. Over the 1950s and into the 1960s (until about 1964) the top marginal rate was at 91%, going down to 65% by the mid -60s. The low level of 50 % wasn’t reached until Reagan arrived and passed his tax cuts in 1981. (And we note here that the debt as a percentage of GDP rose to nearly 30% during the Reagan years, caused by his tax cuts in conjunction with mind boggling military spending.)

Another telling statistic from the FT study is the growth rate for investment in equipment and software for business. They note that this ranged from 5.7% a year to 9.9% in earlier decades but was reduced to 1.9% during the 2000s.  Meanwhile, “average growth in non-residential structures ranged from 1.3% to 5.7% from the 1950s through the 1990s but declined 0.8% during the 2000s.”
A fair and timely question must be asked at this point:

Why do Republican tax cuts lead, counter-intuitively, to industrial decline, stagnant wages, and finally financial collapse? The fact is that high marginal tax rates strongly correlate with economic growth.  In December 2010 Mike Kimel examined the effects of cutting the top marginal tax rate:
….real GDP also grew faster under Bill Clinton, who raised taxes, than it did under Ronald Reagan. In fact, from 1981 to the present, the period in which Reagan’s philosophies have reigned triumphant, the correlation between the top marginal tax rate and the annual growth in real GDP has been positive. That is to say, higher top marginal tax rates have been associated with faster, not slower real economic growth. Conversely, lower top marginal tax rates have coincided with less economic growth.

The positive relationship between the top [higher] marginal tax rate and the growth in real GDP is very nearly bullet-proof. For instance, it extends all the way back to 1929, the first year for which the government computed GDP data. Additionally, higher marginal tax rates are not only correlated with faster increases in real GDP from one year to the next, but also with increases in real GDP over the subsequent two, three, or four years. This is as true going back to 1929 as it is for the period since Reagan became president. In fact, since the Reagan Revolution took hold, similar relationships have existed between the top marginal rate and several other important variables, like real median income, real private investment, consumer sentiment, the value of the dollar relative to other major currencies, and the S&P 500.  
Lower tax rates in any given year are associated with slower growth rates for each of these variables, whether those growth rates are measured over periods of one, two, three or four years.

What is the takeaway here? Although Treasury guy Steve Mnuchin predicts a stock market crash if the Reepo tax bill isn't passed, e.g.

http://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-news-mnuchin-says-crash-if-no-trump-tax-reform-plan-2017-10

The fact is that all the historical evidence points to the opposite. I already referenced the lack of investment during the Reagan and Bush tax cut years, but less well known was what transpired before the 1929 stock market crash.  Calvin Coolidge signed into law the Revenue Act of 1924, which lowered personal income tax rates on the highest incomes from 73 percent to 46 percent.  Two years later, the Revenue Act of 1926 law further reduced inheritance and personal income taxes; eliminated  many excise imposts (luxury or nuisance taxes); and ended public access to federal income tax returns. The tax rate on the highest incomes was reduced to 25 percent.

The result was a speculative frenzy in the stock markets, especially the application of structured leverage in what were called at the time "investment trusts." In September 1929, this edifice of false prosperity began to wobble, and finally crashed spectacularly in October,  1929.

Again, I submit that energy oscillations - usually as liabilities  -are also tied to these tax cuts and lower tax rates. It takes energy, after all, to build new plant for labor or even less carbon -generating  energy infrastructure,  e.g. solar collectors, wind turbines.. But if corporations merely use the money to buy back shares as a form of tax avoidance, the energy goes nowhere useful. (As Joseph Stiglitz noted this morning on 'Morning Joe').  Lower tax rates  encourage taking wealth out of industrial companies; the wealth taken out must then be "put to work." That means more money chasing "investment opportunities" (instead of real investment in capital goods and employees), leading to price increases in financial capital or real estate or some other asset.  The end result? An energy use distortion in an environment of low aggregate demand and high deficits (set to get much higher) setting the stage for a deleterious energy oscillation leading to a crash later next year.

I predict that if this Repuke tax "reform" bill passes, then we will see a monster crash (up to 40 %)  by October  of next year.  You can make book on it.

See also:

http://www.smirkingchimp.com/thread/richard-eskow/76434/orrin-hatch-s-bullcrap-on-taxes-is-exactly-that

And:

http://www.smirkingchimp.com/thread/jack-lessenberry/76454/how-the-gop-tax-bill-would-ruin-michigan

And:

http://www.smirkingchimp.com/thread/steven-rosenfeld/76431/why-arent-dems-in-congress-raising-more-hell-to-oppose-the-worst-gop-tax-bill-ever