Jason Zweig writes in his recent WSJ column (‘Why It’s So
Hard To Spot A Stock Market Bubble):
“If the stock market’s a bubble, that’s dangerous. If you’re
positive it is—or isn’t—a bubble, that could be even more dangerous.
In April, semiconductor stocks rose more than 38%, their
highest monthly return since February 2000. Google’s parent, Alphabet GOOGL -0.32%decrease;
red down pointing triangle, gained 10% on April 30, adding more than $421
billion in market value in a single day—the second-largest one-day gain for a
stock in history, according to Dow Jones Market Data.”
Mr. Zweig goes on to note that in a recent issue of his Newsletter he asked readers: "Are we in a bubble?"
According to Jason: "Readers from the U.S. and across the world replied."
The examples he gave were nearly evenly split between those forecasting a bubble, e.g. "In short, YES. We are definitely in a bubble" And:
"No, it's not a classic bubble".
And:
"While the increase in prices is extraordinary, prices continue to rise because earning continue to rise. Earnings are the mother's milk of the market".
To which Mr. Zweig replied:
"Sorry, folks, as I've warned before, bubblespotting is a lot harder than it seems. If identifying a bubble were easy then we could all do it."
But for sure some can do it better than others, because they factor history into the mix, like Andrew Ross Sorkin - author of the recent book 1929 delves . A lengthy tome that delves into the lead up behind the worst stock crash in history. Below is Sorkin's 60 Minutes interview with CBS Leslie Stahl:
Andrew Ross Sorkin on worrying similarities between Wall Street today and 1929's pre-crash market
"Fooling yourself into thinking you can find absolute safety in any asset yielding more than 1 percent is a terrible idea. We live in a 1 % if not a sub-1% world right now. Nothing you can do can change that. "
He then cited inflation-protected U.S. savings bonds earning 1.06 % and CDs that "earn a pinch more" but "anything above that comes with risks and risks have consequences".
Now, back to my 1999 book, The Elements of the Corporatocracy where I wrote in Chapter 5 (The Market Corporatocracy):
"By the October 19, 1987 Market crash, the speculative economy had sucked nearly $1 trillion
from people who had invested, and could least afford to lose money. However,
they were constantly besieged with the 'buy and hold' mantra to ready them for
the next plucking.
Meanwhile, a host of factors contributed to the speculative frenzy and fed it such as: the passage of the 401k as a substitute pension plan which would replace defined benefits (in real money) that had been received until then. Thus, workers were now expected to place their savings - whatever they could muster - at the mercy of a market that was anything but merciful.
This
based future retirements on 'phantom money' and the shenanigans of shysters on
Wall Street (see e.g. 'License to Steal:
The Secret World of Wall Street Brokers and the Systematic Plundering of the
American Investor' , 1999). Then add to this morass the constant shrinkage
of bank (pass book) interest rates, as well as CDs - forcing vulnerable people
to chase yield in risky vehicles for which they were never prepared.
These items drove herds of common ordinary people into the 'market' who otherwise may never have ventured there. Just as before 1929- millions of ordinary folk were driven into the infamous 'investment trusts' that caused them to lose everything. These 'investment trusts' were the forerunners of today's mutual funds) and then - as now - touted as "the little guy's way to enter the stock market".
The more recent piling into the market with 401ks, IRAs, etc, resulted in a never before seen phenomenon. What mass speculation did was to drive P/E ratios (the price to earnings of stocks, and averaged out, for mutual funds) to incredible overpriced magnitudes. Some stocks and funds were trading at over 30 times earnings just before the '87 crash, and all during the 90s the average was at 45 times earnings. This was nuts, disclosing grossly overvalued stocks. "
There you have it in a nutshell and why we are also in a bubble now that may cause even vaster consternation when it bursts. Excessive borrowing on credit has gone into fueling stock purchases - especially of the AI offerings - promising riches that may never arrive based on posts I have made earlier, i.e.
Is A 'Wave of Pain' Headed Our Way From the Ongoing Strait of Hormuz Blockage?
Sorkin's take on this year's stock boom echoes similar worries, and warnings. As when he tells Leslie Stahl:
"We are either in a remarkable boom, or everything's overpriced."
Well, everything IS overpriced because the prices have been magnified along with the stock buying power using leverage. This is in addition to the fact that the consumer protections after the last big crash don't exist anymore, including the Consumer Protections Bureau (as Sorkin pointed out). As he spells it out in terms of his concerns:
"There is speculation in the market today, there is an increasing debt in the market today, and all of that's happening in the wake of the guard rails coming off."
Including guard rails that had earlier allowed only the wealthy to invest in private companies - like AI startups - before they go public. Why the big deal? Because private equity outfits don't need to adhere to sundry disclosure rules, so those who invest are basically gambling. Historically, average Americans of marginal wealth weren't allowed to invest in these private companies but now - "in this era of democratizing finance there's a lot of people who want access to that" (in Sorkin's words).
So basically, we are set up to see one of the biggest stock crashes in history. You can bet your sweet bippy on it. Especially as so many now flocking into the risky investments are of the mind the former guard rails were just "protecting us from getting rich".
Now they will learn they were actually being protected from losing their asses and having to eat Alpo the rest of their days. As Sorkin put it at the end: "I wish I wasn't saying this, but I can assure you we will have a crash."
See Also:
A.I.-Bubble Angst Spills Into Bond Market - What It Means
And:
Brane Space: A Brief History Of Bear Markets For (Primarily) Younger Investors
And:
And:
Are Small Fry Biotech Investors Really Getting "Hosed" In The Equity Markets? Looks Like It To Me
And:


