Current European heat wave relative to earlier periods
Parisians desperate to cool off on a 46 C day
Londoners cope with a 35 C day in UK heat waveThanks to a new climate analysis we now know the heatwave scorching western Europe is the
most severe and widespread ever and is only possible due to the climate crisis
driven by fossil fuel burning. This, of course, introduces the role of tipping points.
Prof.
Gunter Weller (formerly of the Univ. of Alaska-Fairbanks Geophysical
Institute) as long ago as 1985-86 forecast warming of the Arctic leading to
a global tipping point in temperatures. He predicted that by the 2010s heat
waves occurring in limited planetary regions (say Europe, India or western U.S.) would
be 3-4 C warmer than heat waves experienced by those regions in the 1970s. In
fact this has been found to be the case.
Prof. Gunther Weller (UAF), 1987 A new analysis by scientists from the World Weather Attribution (WWA) consortium shows how rapidly extreme heat is worsening regional heat waves exactly as Weller predicted. Weller's forecasts in 1986 were based on the increase rate of CO2 concentration build up in the atmosphere (it was 347 ppm in 1986). Warning that concentrations in excess of 410 ppm would unleash heatwaves 3-4C hotter than those in 70s.
Coincidentally, as recently as 2003, a heatwave like the current one in Europe would have been 2C cooler due to the lower level of global heating at the time - and the lower CO2 concentration (376 ppm). In 1976, another famous heatwave year, it would have been 3.5C cooler. (I.e. 3.5 C warmer now). All this would have led Weller to remark: "I told you so!".
In line with Weller's tying CO2 concentrations to more significant regional heat waves half of Europe’s 850 largest cities are enduring
their worst ever heat stress. This stress represents a combination of temperature and humidity. Such muggier conditions mean sweating is less effective at cooling the body,
making heatwaves even more dangerous.
The analysis comes as the UK recorded its hottest
ever June temperature on Thursday, 36.7C (98.06F) in Somerset, and much of
western Europe recorded a sharp rise in medical emergencies, including some
deaths. In summer 2022, more than 60,000 people died due to a heat wave in
Europe. The statistical analysis needed to assess the impact of the current
heatwave will take time to complete. Nonetheless, the heatwave is certain to
exact a heavy toll and is also disrupting lives and livelihoods, with schools
closed, hospitals
struggling and rail and air journeys cancelled across the continent.
Just as concerning are the sweltering night-time temperatures currently about 100 times more likely today than in 2003. Prof. Weller, in his 1986 forecasts warning a significant component of his tipping point would be increasingly higher night time temperatures coinciding with higher daytime temperatures. A recipe for increasing heat deaths in regions like Europe where barely 25% have air conditioning.
The WWA scientists, meanwhile, have warned that without urgent climate action, future heat conditions
would get even more extreme and the current summer could seem relatively cool
in retrospect. This again aligns with Weller's predictions of 3-4 week long heatwaves by the 2030s with temperatures in the 40- 50C range.
Dr. Theodore Keeping, an extreme weather research associate at Imperial College London and part of the WWA team, has noted:
“This is the most severe and widespread heatwave to have ever
affected this large a region of Europe. We found that in the last 50 years, during which time the planet has warmed by
1.1C, the chance of a heatwave like this has changed immensely. This event
would not have been possible in June without climate change. "
He added that many capital cities were experiencing not only their
hottest recorded three-day period in June but the hottest three-day period at
any time of year. At least 100 million people in Europe were expected to face
temperatures above 35C on Thursday.
The scientists used wet bulb globe temperatures to assess
the additional
impact of high humidity. Prof. Keeping noting:
“It accounts for the ability of the human body to
cool itself down. With the worst conditions ever experienced in 45% of cities
over 50,000 people, the health impacts of this heatwave are likely to be
extremely high. The speed of change is startling.”
Commenting on the WWA analysis, Simon Stiell, the UN’s climate
chief - quoted in The Guardian, said:
“Climate change is running rampant, caused by the world’s
addiction to burning coal, oil and gas. But the solutions are equally clear: a
faster shift to clean energy – which is now much cheaper than fossil fuels – as
well as protecting forests and building climate resilience.”
This is even more critical given that wider use of air conditioning can't be depended upon - either in the U.S. or Europe. How
will communities adapt to constant power grid breakdowns arising from
electricity overuse - say during prolonged 3 to 4 week 35- 40C heat waves? The
answer isn't clear apart from utility companies rationing the 'juice'. This may
mean doing without electricity for extended periods each day in 40C + heat waves, perhaps up to 12
hours or more. Can Americans adapt to such rationing? Most
power grids as currently designed will no longer work 24/7 but have to be shut down because of the
lack of capacity as millions try to stay cool - overtaxing the
system.
And we haven't yet gone to the threat of transportation and infrastructure damage such as expansion of rails for rails systems. This led Deutsche Bahn and other rail companies to warn against all nonessential travel over the weekend. Meanwhile, as temperatures hit 104 F outside Berlin, the concrete of the A2 highway burst because of the insanely high temperatures.
Let's be clear the WWA team research is not fanciful or 'scare mongering' any more than Dr. Weller's 1986 work at the Geophysical Institute. Both used observed and reliable forecast
temperature data (ice cores in the case of Weller) to render predictions, In the WWA case it meant analyzing the hottest three-day period across a large area of
western Europe, sitting under a “heat dome”.
Using peer-reviewed
methods, they unequivocally found that climate change was the driving force
behind the severity of the heat. In Prof. Weller's case, he unequivocally found from the increased CO2 concentrations found in ice cores that climate change was definitively behind future heat waves in disparate regions - from India, to Europe to the USA.
Both the WWA and Weller ruled out natural variability of the weather. In Weller's case from solar variability (thanks to inputs from the Space Physics Dept.) In the WWA's case discounting particular influences from the El
Niño event that began in the Pacific Ocean 2 months ago. The current weather
pattern, a blocked high-pressure system trapping hot air over Europe and
drawing warm air up from the Sahara, is not unusual in summer, the scientists
said. Instead, the level of heat has been supercharged by global heating. Prof. Gunther Weller would concur.
The UK government’s
official adviser, the Climate Change Committee, said in May that the country’s
infrastructure was “built
for a climate that no longer exists”.
That advisor is spot on correct. Most illuminating has been a weekend (June 27-28) WSJ article ('Americans Get Humbled In Heat Wave', p. 1A), noting:
"Americans in Europe have been getting the shock of their lives this summer as temperatures soar to new records across the continent. Highs have approached 100 degrees Fahrenheit in the UK this week. For the tourists from some of the muggiest U.S. states there is bewilderment: How has a lifetime of sweltering heat not prepared them for this?"
With a common refrain quoted from one American from Texas (similar to others from FL, NC):
"Being a Texan, it kind of feels embarrassing to be in London, and be like, 'I can't handle the heat here'"
Or as another Yank from NC put it:
"These heat waves are different. You can't get any reprieve from it. Once you do get hot, you stay hot."
Even more sobering, as the article puts it:
"Heat waves are becoming more common in Europe - this is the second in two months - and deadly."
So one almost felt sorry for the Americans visiting London, many for the first time, who expected "mostly overcast skies and cool temperatures in the mid-60s or low 70s."
Well, they would have had to have visited London in July, 1978 when we did, having to wear light jackets (or sweaters) most of the time, e.g.
Near River Thames, London, July 1978
Me in Hyde Park, Janice at Greenwich Observatory, July 1978For now these Yank tourists can take some solace in the
observation (WSJ, ibid.):
"But extreme temperatures aren't yet a fact of every day life."
However, if Prof. Weller's forecasts hold they soon will be. Needless to say, we are glad we visited London (10 days) when we did.
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