How Our Understanding of the Black Death Has Been Advanced By Genomic Evidence - & A Study Of Medieval History

14th-century painting with Belgian citizens burying the victims of the Black Death

            St. Sebastan Chapel in Garmisch, Germany, showing Black Death striking villagers

In a recent (June 12)  WSJ Review piece (Black Death: Shadow Over the World)  by Kyle Harper, we read:

"In the immediate aftermath of the 14th-century Black Death, a highly educated Venetian wrote a chronicle claiming that the plague had wiped out a third of his city’s population. Another account from Venice, composed around the same time, claimed that more than half were lost in the pandemic. 

"A remarkable inscription in the Scuola Grande di Santa Maria della Carità (a kind of 14th-century Knights of Columbus) carved right after the outbreak put the city’s death toll at two out of three. Yet another Venetian chronicler claimed seven out of 10. And by the reckoning of one observer, the mortality carried off three out of every four inhabitants.

Welcome to the challenges of writing the history of the Black Death, the great pandemic of bubonic plague that ravaged the late medieval world. "

Ravaged is correct. And we saw some of the lasting residue when we traveled to Garmisch, Germany in 2013 and beheld the detailed art work on St.Sebastian Chapel wall, not far from our guest house. 

After ten minutes or so in the chapel, noting the fetid odor, we exited at the rear and walked outside to find a green expanse of about an acre. On entry, we saw a small notice that this hallowed ground (extending behind the chapel)  formed a "cemetery". Oddly, there were no grave markers. Evidently, at least 1, 100 plague victims were simply buried in unmarked graves. Likely these victims made up the faithful of the small congregation, while others ..e.g. unbelievers, witches, or Jews who perished, simply had their bodies consigned to huge funeral pyres -  actually manifested throughout Europe during the Black Death. (Europe lost an estimated one-third of its then population.)

                                       Plague mask displayed in Oberammergau

                                  Plague reaper in Oberammergau town square

A few days later, our German friends Reinhardt and Elli drove us to Oberammergau.  There they pointed out  engraved iron works displaying other unsettling images of the Plague "Reaper".  These were often accompanied by prayers or other pleas to spare the town. Reinhardt related that the plague toll was fearsome with so many corpses piled up in the streets and few places to put them.  Most had to be carted away to be incinerated in open pits.

In regard to the WSJ reviewer's issues, here is the problem: there were multiple waves of the Black Death - with different intensity or 'ferocity' if you will. What he focuses on is the 14th century version. But what we beheld in our German visit were the inescapable residues of the 17th century version.  What gives?  

The 14th-century Black Death and later 17th-century outbreaks (like the Great Plague of London) were later found to be distinct, centuries-separated waves of the same continuous pandemic. They were also found to be genetically related, driven by the same bacteria (Yersinia pestis), but which differed significantly in how rapidly it spread and how society responded in each era.

The target flea for the Yersinias pestis bacterium is Xenopsylla cheopsis. Once it infects this flea, Yersinias' tendency is to keep on multiplying until it eventually totally blocks the flea's oesophagus making the critter chronically thirsty. The flea must then seek blood sources, i.e. rodents, humans. Since rats are the most prolific, and especially at the times of the plague bred relentlessly because of horrific hygienic conditions, they were the primary vectors.

The Black Death (1347–1351) marked the devastating start of the "Second Plague Pandemic." (the first occurring over 527- 565, during the reign of the Roman Emperor Justinian, and hence called 'the Plague of Justinian') This wave did not end in the 1300s; rather, it repeatedly recurred across Europe, the Middle East, and North Africa for over 300 years, culminating in major 17th-century events like the Great Plague of London (1665–1666).

Despite the 300-year gap, medical knowledge barely advanced. In both the 14th and 17th centuries, people did not know about germs and attributed the plagues to divine punishment, the alignment of the stars, or "miasma" (bad air).

During the 14th-century Black Death, the Italian city of Venice originated the concept of isolating victims. By the 17th century, these practices had evolved into highly organized systems. In 1665, London strictly enforced quarantines by boarding up infected households and marking their doors with a red cross.

Ultimately, while the 14th-century Black Death was a sudden, apocalyptic shock to a completely naive population, 17th-century outbreaks were part of a long-established, evolving disease cycle within a society that was actively learning how to isolate and manage the spread.  

The WSJ reviewer specifically zooms in on Thomas Asbridge and his take in a recent book, noting:

"One contemporary Florentine writer considered it the worst natural disaster since the biblical flood. In “The Black Death: A Global History of Humanity’s Most Devastating Pandemic,” a vivid and sweeping new history of the outbreak, Thomas Asbridge concurs, judging it “the worst natural disaster in recorded history.

The survivors who wrote about the plague leave no doubt that the Black Death was catastrophic. And as Mr. Asbridge points out, thanks to the spread of the new technology that we call paper, there was rather more contemporary writing about the Black Death than previous disasters. Consequently, we know a tantalizing amount about the plague. But the predicament we face in deciphering the Venetian statistics is hardly unique. Modern historians must try to reconstruct the nature, extent and consequences of this horrific calamity from anguished and often contradictory reports.

Mr. Asbridge’s strategy is to explore “a series of representative case studies (or what might be termed micro-histories).” He surveys the general course of the pandemic in Venice but also focuses, for example. In the example of Venice, Mr. Asbridge breezily concludes that the plague took up to two-thirds of the population, without making a compelling case for this figure among the many credible possibilities."

But 'breezily' claimed or not, author Sean Martin, 'The Black Death' (2007) correctly notes what we now refer to as 'the Black Death' was actually the second pandemic of the plague. Also up to two-thirds of the population was wiped out. How? Because there was no effort at serious isolation of the infected or any attempt to target the actual sources (rats), rather giving in to superstitious rot.

Given existing knowledge had not yet accounted for bacterial existence, blame was most often based on "supernatural" or "spiritual" attributes. I.e. blaming people who were likely not pious enough, or committed foul deeds, or were miscreants in some other fashion, e.g. "witches", atheists, heretics or ....Jews. In many regions, alas, Jewish populations were blamed for the plague's spread, part and parcel of the misbegotten German Völkisch tradition.  

Harper, the WSJ reviewer, Harper goes on:

"Anyone bold enough to attempt a new history of the Black Death today deserves our empathy. The topic is unwieldy, and fundamental mysteries abound. Did the plague hit China? How did the plague stick around for nearly half a millennium after the initial wave, causing repeated outbreaks? Why did Europe rebound from demographic catastrophe while much of the Near East stagnated?"

He basically answers these questions himself in subsequent paragraphs, acknowledging Asbridge's  insight into medieval history ( a reader in medieval history at University of London) but giving short shrift to the science. I.e. he was merely guilty of "sidelining the scientific evidence in favor of the written testimony":

"New DNA evidence transformed what we know of the plague even during the eight years that Mr. Asbridge spent researching and writing this book..

Only two decades ago, it was widely doubted by specialists that the Black Death was caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, the agent of the bubonic plague. Then technological advances made it possible to sequence DNA recovered from archaeological samples and determine that Y. pestis was indeed the cause. We are also learning more about the evolutionary history of this devastating bacterium, which has haunted human societies since the Stone Age."

This is a critical point and one that can't be emphasized enough.  As Harper elaborates:

The genomic evidence has been critical in pinpointing the reservoir of the plague in Central Asia and in tracing its lightning-fast diffusion along trade routes. The DNA evidence is also helping us understand how the plague stayed around for centuries. (In short, it lurked in local animal reservoirs.) As Mr. Asbridge rightly recognizes, this longevity was a crucial dimension of the bacterium’s historical impact. The Black Death was not a one-off. It was the beginning of a long age of plague."

Indeed, and as I already noted, i.e. this wave did not end in the 1300s; rather, it repeatedly recurred across Europe.  Why? Because the bacterium was endemic.

The final paragraphs of Harper are worth repeating:

"Like any pandemic, the Black Death was simultaneously a biological and a social event—shaped by both the innate characteristics of a microbe and such all-too-human factors as political systems, religious beliefs and public-health responses. "

 Which brings to mind the tens of million of blithering morons in Trump era 1.0 who clamored for "escape" and pursuit of their "freedom" even as Covid-19 deaths soared past 1 million in the U.S. 

And:

"The deepest mystery of the plague is why this bacterium—in normal times a pathogen of wild rodents—erupted to cause some of the most world-altering disease outbreaks on record. "

Author Laurie Garrett's sober take, i.e. in her book The Coming Plague (p. 169), may be the best rejoinder to this:

"An individual microbe's world is limited only by the organism's mobility and its ability to tolerate various ranges of temperature, sunlight, oxygen, acidity or alkalinity.  Wherever there may be an ideal soup for a microbe, it will eagerly take hold,  immediately joining to the local microbial ecosystem of  pushing and shoving struggle for survival.... In this fluid complexity human beings stomp about with swagger, elbowing their way without concern into one ecosphere after another. The human race seems equally complacent about blazing a path through a rainforest with bulldozers and arson  - or using an antibiotic 'scorched earth' policy to chase unwanted microbes across the duodenum."

See Also:

 Visits to Plague Towns in Germany - Some Unsettling Sights

And:

What We Learned In Germany Regarding Its 17th Century Black Death Scourge

A Math Treat: D.E. Littlewood's Elegant Introduction to Non-Commutative Algebras (Pt. 1)

  In his timeless monograph 'The Skeleton Key Of Mathematics' (CHapter XIII, p. 101, Algebras) D.E. Littlewood gives us one of the best introductions to that domain of mathematics.  He starts in a logical place, Hamiton's 19th century development of the quaternions.  He begins by looking at Hamilton's approach to vector and scalar products, i.e. in 3 dimensions:

Then noting(p. 102) :

 "A vector (e.g. R) with components x, y,z would be denoted by:

 xi + yj + zk"

Adding:

"If for the law of multiplication it is assumed (for the unit vectors):

i ² = - I,  j ² = - I,  k ² = - I, 

i j =k,  jk = i, ki = j

ji = -k,  kj = -i, ik = - j

Then the product of two vectors (xi, yj, zk), (x' i, y'j, z' k) will have a scalar part which is equal to the scalar part with the sign reversed, and a vector part equal to the vector product. Thus:

(xi, yj, zk) (x' i, y'j, z' k) =  - (xx' + yy' + zz') + i(y z' - y'z) 

+ j (zx' - z' x)   + k( xy' - x' y)

The quaternions so formed will obey all the laws of numbers except the commutative law for multiplication. Most importantly, they are associative, i.e. three quaternions A, B, C satisfy:

AB (C) =  A (BC)

"If then:

 Q = x ₀ +  ix ₁   +  jx ₂  +  kx ₃

is any quaternion, the quaternion obtained by changing the sign of the vector part ( Q = x ₀ -  ix _{1  -}  jx _{2  -}   kx ₃ ) is called the conjugate quaternion.  The product of a quaternion with its conjugate is a positive non-zero scalar, i.e.

  ( x ₀ +  ix ₁   +  jx ₂  +  kx ₃ )  (x ₀ -  ix _{1  -}  jx _{2  -}   kx ₃ ) = 

_{(x 0} ²+  x ₁ ²  +  x ₂ ² +  x ₃²)

which is called the norm of the quaternion.  It is thus always possible to divide by a quaternion, except of course by zero, e.g.

I/ (x ₁ +  ix ₁   +  jx ₂  +  kx ₃ ) =

 (x ₀ -  ix _{1  -}  jx _{2  -}   kx ₃ / _{(x 0} ²+  x ₁ ²  +  x ₂ ² +  x ₃²)

Quaternions with real coefficients, or real quaternions, are thus said to form a division algebra.

If complex coefficients are allowed, however, division may fail. This is given that for complex numbers it is possible that:

 _{x 0} ²+  x ₁ ²  +  x ₂ ² +  x ₃²   = 0

without all the quantities (_{x 0 ,}  x _{1 ,}  x _2 ,  x ₃  ) being zero.

Therefore complex quaternions do not forma a division algebra.  It can be shown, however, they are equivalent to the algebra of two rowed matrices, if we set:

Thence we have here one of the most elegant - and simplest- presentations of non-commutative algebras. As well as the basis for what we call 'algebras' in general.

Next: Higher dimensional algebras

The Untold Story Of The Reagan Tax Cuts? Conservo Parrots Still Remain Dishonest In Disclosure

 

The Laffer curve: David Stockman ate it up

Arthur Laffer in 1974 had a new theory on why tax rates were inefficient and high, or one might say "inefficiently high".  Meeting with Dick Cheney, and eager to please then President Gerald Ford,  Laffer  proceeded to sketch his infamous diagram for his "Laffer curve" on a napkin in a DC restaurant on why the rich could be said to be "over taxed".

As drawn, it was totally convincing, especially for a guy like Cheney with minimal math skills. Note the line defining the highest marginal tax rate of 70% for Gerald Ford's presidency. What Laffer's curve sought to show is that by cutting that rate down, say to 50%, one could increase the revenues by nearly 35%! Of course, the 50% turned out to be wholly arbitrary and in fact after Reagan became President in 1980 the rates were cut down to 50% by 1981, then to 28% (by 1988). After all, if one could increase revenues by cutting taxes 20%, imagine what one could do by cutting them more than 40%!

Thus did Laffer's curve become the basis of Reagan's tax cuts 1981 and the whole tax cut meme ever since. This despite the fact that in reality no community or even human body has managed to GROW by virtue of starving! But try to tell the bulk of Americans, who continue to buy into this codswallop at a mind-boggling rate! Despite the fact there's never been evidence it's actually worked!  

Enter now Phil Gramm and Michael Solon ('The Surprising Truth About Reagan's Tax Cut, WSJ,  June 20-21, p. A11) who continue to spread Reagan tax cut fantasies. They insist that a 

"bracket creep" (because of inflation at the time)  was actually responsible for expanding deficits, not the Reagan tax cuts.  But is this true, or are these two conservo experts (one at American Enterprise Inst. the other at Hudson Inst.) just playing word games?

Note that when Laffer's crappola was first presented to Reagan's budget maven David Stockman there was no mention of tax bracket influence. So how did Laffer manage to convince Stockman that HIGHER tax rates cause revenues to decrease?  Well, he  argued that higher tax rates on the rich would only cause them to work fewer hours, or if REALLY rich, invest in fewer projects, enterprises, hence create fewer jobs. Thus, revenues over all would decline, first from the working rich because Uncle Sam would get less taxes by virtue of their reduced work, and also from the investing rich because they'd create fewer jobs and thus no workers would be around to pay the taxes Uncle Sam wants. Thus, Laffer argued, the higher tax rates were inefficient!  No mention at all of how abandoning them would explode deficits.

Fortunately, enough economic real indicators existed - even then -  to test Laffer's curve on an empirical basis. Thus, given the progressive Reagan cut - from 70% to 50% by 1981, then down to 28% by 1988, it should be possible to match the claims against economic reality. Especially, given one would expect to find lower debt % of GDP if Laffer's claims were true.

A first full examination of the empirical effects arrived in a text  (The Indebted Society, 1995) by  James Medofff and Andrew Harless, wherein they found, p. 23:

"For the health of the economy, Reagan's policies turned out to be just about the worst thing that could have happened: investment did not increase, growth continued to stagnate, and the federal deficit ballooned to new dimensions....

In 1981, the year Reagan took office, the public debt was 26.5 % of the gross domestic product (GDP)....In 1993, the year that Bush left office, the public debt was a staggering 51.9 percent of the GDP."

(Gramm and Solon cite a recorded deficit of 2.6% in 1980 - but NOT the deficit for the year 1981- after Reagan took office)

Thus, we have the first evidence that Laffer was plying smoke and mirrors, not sound economic policy! If the debt as percentage of GDP nearly doubled by the end of the Bush Sr. presidency (and recall he kept Reagan's rates for most of his tenure) then we see what a disaster they were.

More impressive yet was Medoff and Harless' analysis in their chapter 'Let The Eat Cake' (p. 84) which looked at actual data(p. 87)and found that: 

"high tax rates are associated with higher productivity growth. There is a consistent and strong relationship.". 

This was written barely a year into Bill Clinton's imposition of a marginally higher tax rate on the wealthiest, and we saw after the fact more than 20 million jobs created, even as the deficits decreased. Plus a healthy ($600m) surplus was left for Bush Jr. - which was then promptly pissed away in his tax cuts!

Less well known, but which I can document since I lived there, is that supply side economics was tried in Barbados, in FY 1987. The usually democratic socialist state had just elected a new government (in 1986) that was determined to experiment for the first time with the 'trickle down' supply side bunkum adopted by Reagan. They totally eliminated all taxes totally for those earning under $15,000/ year and also cut marginal rates in most income categories from 20-30%. 

They were warned by the country's top economists it would lead to economic disaster, but they took no heed. Finding it more to their liking to pander to a naive (then!) populace to garner votes, they couldn't renege once in power, especially if they wanted re-election.

The supply side idiocy was implemented for tax year 1987 and beyond when the chickens came to roost.  Five years later (and with cost of the losing of 35,000 out of 105,000 jobs, with reserves barely at $11 million, the island had to go to the IMF for loans as its cash flow had evaporated. 

The IMF injected nasty medicine - in the form of across the board pay cuts of 8 percent for all civil servants and higher taxes- though devaluation of the currency was avoided. To escape the deficit pit created succeeding governments had to also impose VAT or value added taxes, including on foodstuffs. This also serves as an object lesson to all who still believe supply side baloney can work in any venue, or that tax cuts are an answer.

What was the biggest irony of all? That one of Reagan's top professional economists, Martin Feldstein, actually pooh-poohed Laffer's curve. In a 1986 econ article Feldstein admitted he "never believed Laffer" and referred to his "curve proposition" as the "height of supply side hyperbole". The tragedy is that Fedlstein's article was snuffed by the Reaganites, and Feldstein himself never broached it, especially after being given an office in the administration. A pity, because decades of foolishness and pain might have been avoided.

Because of that, the belief that tax cuts for the rich are the best way to apply them remains dogma, especially among Republicans. But let's never forget the underside of their credo: that tax cuts are pushed not merely to benefit the rich, but to "starve the beast". In other words, dissolve and destroy social welfare protections if at all possible.  True to form, Gramm and Solon in their WSJ piece write:

"It was the explosion of social welfare spending that became the driving force in icreasing the federal budget deficit and has been ever since."

Adding:

"The legacy of the Reagan program is that by reversing the growth of the welfare state and cutting tax rates Reagan gave the nation 25 years of prosperity."

No mention that during his two terms in office, the national debt nearly tripled, rising from under $1 trillion to $2.6 trillion, owing to out of control defense spending.  

Nor that the Reagan  indirect Social Security cuts in 1983 (that raised the retirement age, delayed COLAs and increased taxes on S.S. to 50%) had any effect on slowing the deficits.

See Also:

 "No One Is 'Gutting' The Safety Net" - How The Wall Street Journal Editors Went Adrift In Their Own Codswallop

And:

AGAIN: Contrary To WSJ - Why JFK Was NOT A Supply Side Tax Cutter

And:

Higher Tax Wealth Flight Is Irrational Given We Know Higher Tax Rates Generate Higher Productivity

Scorching European Heat Wave Shocks American Tourists & Bears Out Forecast Of A Climate Tipping Point

 

Current European heat wave relative to earlier periods

Parisians desperate to cool off on a 46 C day

Londoners cope with a 35 C day in UK heat wave

Thanks to a new climate analysis we now know the heatwave scorching western Europe is the most severe and widespread ever and is only possible due to the climate crisis driven by fossil fuel burning. This, of course, introduces the role of tipping points.

Prof. Gunter Weller (formerly of the Univ. of Alaska-Fairbanks Geophysical Institute) as long ago as 1985-86 forecast warming of the Arctic leading to a global tipping point in temperatures. He predicted that by the 2010s heat waves occurring in limited planetary regions (say Europe, India or western U.S.) would be 3-4 C warmer than heat waves experienced by those regions in the 1970s. In fact this has been found to be the case.

                                              Prof. Gunter Weller (UAF)

 A new analysis by scientists from the World Weather Attribution (WWA) consortium shows how rapidly extreme heat is worsening regional heat waves exactly as Weller predicted. Weller's forecasts in 1986 were based on the increase rate of CO2 concentration build up in the atmosphere (it was 347 ppm in 1986). Warning that concentrations in excess of 410 ppm would unleash heatwaves 3-4C hotter than those in 70s.

 Coincidentally, as recently as 2003, a heatwave like the current one in Europe would have been 2C cooler due to the lower level of global heating at the time - and the lower CO2 concentration (376 ppm). In 1976, another famous heatwave year, it would have been 3.5C cooler. (I.e. 3.5 C warmer now).  All this would have led Weller to remark: "I told you so!".

In line with Weller's tying CO2 concentrations to more significant regional heat waves half of Europe’s 850 largest cities are enduring their worst ever heat stress.  This stress represents a combination of temperature and humidity. Such muggier conditions mean sweating is less effective at cooling the body, making heatwaves even more dangerous.

The analysis comes as the UK recorded its hottest ever June temperature on Thursday, 36.7C (98.06F) in Somerset, and much of western Europe recorded a sharp rise in medical emergencies, including some deaths. In summer 2022, more than 60,000 people died due to a heat wave in Europe. The statistical analysis needed to assess the impact of the current heatwave will take time to complete. Nonetheless, the heatwave is certain to exact a heavy toll and is also disrupting lives and livelihoods, with schools closed, hospitals struggling and rail and air journeys cancelled across the continent.

Just as concerning are the sweltering night-time temperatures currently about 100 times more likely today than in 2003. Prof. Weller, in his 1986 forecasts warning a significant component of his tipping point would be increasingly higher night time temperatures coinciding with higher daytime temperatures. A recipe for increasing heat deaths in regions like Europe where barely 25% have air conditioning.

The WWA scientists, meanwhile, have warned that without urgent climate action, future heat conditions would get even more extreme and the current summer could seem relatively cool in retrospect. This again aligns with Weller's predictions of 3-4 week long heatwaves by the 2030s with temperatures in the 40- 50C range.

Dr. Theodore Keeping, an extreme weather research associate at Imperial College London and part of the WWA team, has noted:

“This is the most severe and widespread heatwave to have ever affected this large a region of Europe. We found that in the last 50 years, during which time the planet has warmed by 1.1C, the chance of a heatwave like this has changed immensely. This event would not have been possible in June without climate change. "

He added that many capital cities were experiencing not only their hottest recorded three-day period in June but the hottest three-day period at any time of year. At least 100 million people in Europe were expected to face temperatures above 35C on Thursday.

The scientists used wet bulb globe temperatures to assess the additional impact of high humidity. Prof. Keeping noting:

 “It accounts for the ability of the human body to cool itself down. With the worst conditions ever experienced in 45% of cities over 50,000 people, the health impacts of this heatwave are likely to be extremely high. The speed of change is startling.”

Commenting on the WWA analysis, Simon Stiell, the UN’s climate chief - quoted in The Guardian, said: 

“Climate change is running rampant, caused by the world’s addiction to burning coal, oil and gas. But the solutions are equally clear: a faster shift to clean energy – which is now much cheaper than fossil fuels – as well as protecting forests and building climate resilience.”

This is even more critical given that wider use of air conditioning can't be depended upon  - either in the U.S. or Europe. How will communities adapt to constant power grid breakdowns arising from electricity overuse - say during prolonged 3 to 4 week 35- 40C  heat waves? The answer isn't clear apart from utility companies rationing the 'juice'. This may mean doing without electricity for extended periods each day in 40C + heat waves, perhaps up to 12 hours or more. Can Americans adapt to such rationing? Most power grids as currently designed will no longer work 24/7 but have to be shut down because of the lack of capacity as millions try to stay cool -  overtaxing the system.

And we haven't yet gone to the threat of transportation and infrastructure damage such as expansion of rails for rails systems. This led Deutsche Bahn and other rail companies to warn against all nonessential travel over the weekend. Meanwhile, as temperatures hit 104 F outside Berlin, the concrete of the A2 highway burst because of the insanely high temperatures.

Let's be clear the WWA team research is not fanciful or 'scare mongering' any more than Dr. Weller's 1986 work at the Geophysical Institute.  Both used observed and reliable forecast temperature data (ice cores in the case of Weller) to render predictions, In the WWA case it meant analyzing the hottest three-day period across a large area of western Europe, sitting under a “heat dome”. 

Using peer-reviewed methods, they unequivocally found that climate change was the driving force behind the severity of the heat. In Prof. Weller's case, he unequivocally found from the increased CO2 concentrations found in ice cores that climate change was definitively behind future heat waves in disparate regions - from India, to Europe to the USA.

Both the WWA and Weller ruled out natural variability of the weather.  In Weller's case from solar variability (thanks to inputs from the Space Physics Dept.) In the WWA's case discounting particular influences from the El Niño event that began in the Pacific Ocean 2 months ago. The current weather pattern, a blocked high-pressure system trapping hot air over Europe and drawing warm air up from the Sahara, is not unusual in summer, the scientists said. Instead, the level of heat has been supercharged by global heating. Prof. Gunther Weller would concur.

The UK government’s official adviser, the Climate Change Committee, said in May that the country’s infrastructure was “built for a climate that no longer exists”.

That advisor is spot on correct. Most illuminating has been a weekend (June 27-28) WSJ article ('Americans Get Humbled In Heat Wave', p. 1A), noting: 

"Americans in Europe have been getting the shock of their lives this summer as temperatures soar to new records across the continent. Highs have approached 100 degrees Fahrenheit in the UK this week. For the tourists from some of the muggiest U.S. states there is bewilderment: How has a lifetime of sweltering heat not prepared them for this?"

With a common refrain quoted from one American from Texas (similar to others from FL, NC):

"Being a Texan, it kind of feels embarrassing to be in London, and be like, 'I can't handle the heat here'"

Or as another Yank from NC put it:

"These heat waves are different. You can't get any reprieve from it. Once you do get hot, you stay hot."

Even more sobering, as the article puts it:

"Heat waves are becoming more common in Europe - this is the second in two months - and deadly."

So one almost felt sorry for the Americans visiting London, many for the first time, who expected "mostly overcast skies and cool temperatures in the mid-60s or low 70s."

Well, they would have had to have visited London in July, 1978 when we did, having to wear light jackets (or sweaters) most of the time, e.g.

Near River Thames, London, July 1978

           Me in Hyde Park, Janice at Greenwich Observatory, July 1978

For now these Yank tourists can take some solace in the observation (WSJ, ibid.):

"But extreme temperatures aren't yet a fact of every day life."

However, if Prof. Weller's forecasts hold they soon will be. Needless to say, we are glad we visited London (10 days) when we did.

See Also:

Could UK summers get even hotter and are we ready?

And

THE CLIMATE IS COMPLETELY F*CKED | The Kyle Kulinski Show

And

Europe's heat wave is worst ever recorded, researchers say - The Washington Post

And:

Nope, The Climate Crisis Has Not Been Overwhelmed By Affordability Because It's Real And Isn't Going Away

And:

Do We Really Trust Roger Pielke Jr's Advice On Climate Change Adaptation?

And:

Five Major Climate Tipping Point Manifestations & What They Mean 

And:

Dismantling Of Premier Climate Research Facility Here in Colorado Will Have Repercussions Worldwide

And:

New Research Paper Shows Climate Models May Be MORE Accurate Than Reported

And:

• 'Climate Change Isn't The End Of The World' - Total, Absolute Bollocks...