## Friday, September 30, 2016

### Latest Study Shows Earth Is At Its Hottest In 120,000 Years

A new study shows the Earth is on track to be warmer than it has been in about 120,000 years, and is locked into eventually hitting its hottest mark in more than 2 million years. Carolyn Snyder, as part of her doctoral dissertation at Stanford University (she's now a climate policy official at the EPA)), created a continuous 2 million year temperature record, much longer than a previous 22,000 year record. Snyder’s temperature reconstruction, published Monday in the journal Nature, doesn’t estimate temperature for a single year, but averages 5,000-year time periods going back a couple million years.

Snyder based her reconstruction on 61 different sea surface temperature proxies from across the globe, such as:  ratios between magnesium and calcium (Mg/Ca), species makeup and acidity. But the further the study goes back in time, especially after half a million years, the fewer of those proxies are available, making the estimates less certain, she said. Snyder, unlike the climate change deniers, also acknowledged her estimates are rough with large uncertainties. But she also found that the temperature changes correlated well to carbon dioxide levels.

Snyder found that temperatures averaged out over the most recent 5,000 years — which includes the last 125 years or so of industrial emissions of heat-trapping gases — to be generally warmer than they have been since about 120,000 years ago. Also, two interglacial time periods, the one 120,000 years ago and another just about 2 million years ago, were the warmest Snyder tracked. They were about 3.6 degrees (2 degrees Celsius) warmer than the current 5,000-year average.

Using the link to carbon dioxide levels and taking into account other factors and past trends, Snyder calculated how much warming can be expected in the future. Assuming climate factors are the same as in the past, she found that Earth is  headed for 7 degrees (about 4 degrees Celsius) of warming over the next few thousand years. Lest anyone believe this is incomprehensible, let's recall a Reuters report from July, 2010:

"the Met Office Hadley Centre and other climate research centres  imposed (a projection of 4C temperature increase) on to a Google Earth layer. It's a timely arrival, with warnings this month that current international carbon pledges will lead to a rise of nearly 4C ."

Google maps projection of 4C greenhouse world  - showing from five years ago that Snyder's figures are in the ballpark for realistic expectations.

Meanwhile, a Guardian UK article from May 17, 2015 bluntly pointed out:

"A paper used for guiding future business planning at the Anglo-Dutch multinational assumes that carbon dioxide emissions will fail to limit temperature increases to 2C, the internationally agreed threshold to prevent widespread flooding, famine and desertification. Instead, the New Lens Scenarios document refers to a forecast by the independent International Energy Agency (IEA) that points to a temperature rise of up to 4C in the short term, rising later to 6C."

The message?  Given that once a runaway threshold is hit (which it likely will be once we pass 4C and continue to 6C)  these numbers will settle into a permanently heated planet- inexorably leading to the condition of a second Venus. See e.g.

In other words, all the quibbles aside, Carolyn Snyder's figures are definitely plausible, and may even be too low, given the Hadley,, IEA findings disclose a 4C rise by 2100. Snyder herself observed:

This is based on what happened in the past, In the past it wasn’t humans messing with the atmosphere.”

Yes, well it was mainly  volcanoes - but even now they can't compare to humans. A good parameter is the "ACM multiplier" (cf. Volcanic Versus Anthropogenic Carbon Dioxide in Eos: Transactions of the American Geophysical Union( Vol. 92, No. 24, June 14, 2011, p. 201)   The essential data of the paper is shown in the accompanying graph, for which the dots show a time series of the anthropogenic carbon dioxide CO2 multiplier (ACM) calculated from time series data on anthopogenic CO2 emission rates and Marty & Tolstikhin's (1998) study of preferred volcanic emission rates.

In their paper appearing in Chemical Geology (Vol. 145, p. 233) the latter authors gave a preferred estimate of 0.26 gigaton per year for present day global volcanic emission rate and injection. Their study encompassed CO2 emissions from divergent tectonic plates, intraplates (plumes) and convergent plates - e.g. displaying volcanism.

Moreover as the Eos paper observes, their computations "assessed the highest preferred minimum and maximum global estimates, making them appropriate high end volcanic limits for the comparisons with anthropogenic CO2 emissions covered with in this article".

To that extent, the Eos author (Terry Gerlach of the U.S. Geological Survey)showed from his time series that the projected anthropogenic CO2 emission rate of 35 gigatons per year is 135 times greater than the 0.26 gigatons per year emission rate for volcanoes, plumes etc. This ratio of 135:1 (anthropogenic to volcanic CO2) is what defines the anthropogenic multiplier, an index of anthropogenic CO2's dominance over volcanic inputs.

It is also worth mentioning how the ACM data show an astounding rise in the CO2 multiplier from about 18 in 1900, to roughly 38 in 1950, which parallels the vastly enhanced use of automobiles as a primary mode of personal transport - with the planet now saddled with nearly 600 million vehicles! Every manjack in a third world nation even seeks to own one!

Interestingly the only volcanic event which even came close to human emissions in the last several decades  was the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines in 1992. It generated CO2 emission rates roughly between 0.001 and 0.006 gigaton per hour, or closely approximating to the 0.004 gigaton anthropogenic per hour (e.g. based on 35 gigatons per year).Thus, as the Eos article observes:

For a few hours individual volcanoes may emit as much or more CO2 than human activities. But volcanic emissions are ephemeral while anthropogenic CO2 is emitted relentlessly from from ubiquitous sources..

Which means human activity is a vastly more significant source of CO2 and the major reason we are approaching a CO2 concentration (taken to be from 550- 600 ppm)that marks the threshold to the runaway greenhouse effect.

Scientists have given various reasons for past changes in carbon dioxide and heat levels, including regular slight shifts in Earth’s axial tilt. But on the evidence, including the work done by Prof. Gunter Weller in the 1980s at the University of Alaska-Fairbanks, it now appears increased CO2 from carbon combustion dwarfs all other factors.

Prof. Gunther Weller at the Geophysical Institute - UAF, ca. 1986

Prof. Weller first presented this in his detailed ice core measurements in a 1987  research report and showed that the Arctic temperatures (then) were some 7F warmer than rest of the world. The ice cores available at his Atmospheric Physics lab (part of the Geophysical Institute in Fairbanks) were extracted from Arctic ice at depths corresponding with geological time frames dating back over 80,000 years. His results showed that the greatest ambient temperatures corresponded to the highest CO2 concentrations in the ice cores. Also the largest increases in ambient temperatures have occurred over the past 50-60 years, during which the CO2 increases have been largest. Since then this relationship has only been further corroborated.

Flash forward now and at least four outside scientists praised the Snyder study’s tracking of past temperatures, with assorted caveats that its becomes less certain it is as one gets deeper in the past. Jeremy Shakun of Boston College said “Snyder’s work is a great contribution and future work should build on it.”

But many of the same scientists said Snyder’s estimate of future warming seems "too high". Shakun called it unrealistic and not matching historical time periods of similar carbon dioxide levels. But the point he is missing is that this isn't a "similar period for CO2 levels". (Especially given greenhouse gases such as methane- with even higher forcing factors-  are now increasing at even faster rates than CO2.)  See e.g

http://brane-space.blogspot.com/2015/05/methane-release-increases-because-of.html

Outgassed methane, say from melting permafrost, delivers roughly the same forcing (nonlinear)  'punch' in 20-25 years that CO2 does in 100 years. Prof. Weller's own Arctic measurements project a melting Arctic and runaway greenhouse onset within a century. And once the runaway threshold is hit there is no turning back, there will be no going back to "ice ages".  The point? Extended five thousand or two million year records will be impossible to assess anyway because no humans will be around to do it! The runaway greenhouse effect will take out human civilization, making it an extended "extinction event" as real as a Torino 9 asteroid strike.  So if there are any "caveats"  they ought to focus on the uncertainties in Snyder's past record assembly, but not her temperature projections going forward.

Michael Mann of Pennsylvania State University, called the study "provocative and interesting" but said he remains skeptical until more research confirms it.  I believe more research has done that, as with Weller's work and also the forecasts of the Hadley UK Met Office and the  International Energy Agency.   Mann found the future temperature calculations “so much higher than prevailing estimates that one has to consider it somewhat of an outlier.”

But my 0.02, and I admit I am not an atmospheric physicist (but I do plow through many climate papers), is that it is smack square in the realm of realistic expectations, so not an "outlier" at all as we will soon see in the coming decade.

### Newsflash: 2016 Election Voting Has Already Begun

Even as we learned yesterday that Libertarian Gary Johnson further disqualified himself from serious presidential candidate consideration, there was 103 year old Rulene Steineger putting most everyone younger to shame as she pushed her walker to the polls in Iowa. She was one of the earliest voters in a state (among eleven) for which voting is already going on. These  include: Iowa, Idaho, Wyoming, North and South Dakota, Minnesota, Illinois, Maryland, New Jersey, Vermont and Maine.

As for Rulene,, her reasons for early voting were pretty clear:

"I'm a hundred and three. That's the reason I'm voting early. I'm not taking any chances."

Indeed, and she's made clear her vote is for Hillary Clinton, so she's not taking any chances that  the Trumpster clown will sneak in by even one vote in Iowa - grabbing its electoral stash.  Meanwhile, for the first time in its 34-year history, USA Today's editors have come out against a presidential candidate, writing:

DON'T VOTE FOR TRUMP

"Trump is...by unanimous consensus of the Editorial Board, unfit for the presidency".

The paper also referred to a "dangerous demagogue" and a "serial liar' who "traffics in prejudice". With Clinton, the board split, half for half against. The main complaint was "Clinton's sense of entitlement and her lack of candor and her extreme carelessness."

The paper made it clear, however, they were not endorsing Clinton, but "disendorsing Trump'> They are basically okay with voters making any choice other than Donald J. Trump.  Meanwhile, we learn the Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson (who for some reason many millennial Sanders' voters seem to be attracted to) has now confirmed his status as a clown and dunce.  See e.g.

http://brane-space.blogspot.com/2016/09/gary-johnson-passes-moronic-wannabe.html

In the most recent iteration, Johnson was asked by MSNBC host Chris Matthews, "Who's your favorite foreign leader?" To which Johnson grew pop-eyed, stared at Matthews and burbled "I...I...I'm having a brain freeze!"  He never could get a coherent response out though at one point he said "the former Egyptian President", but got hoist on his own petard when asked: "Which one?"

Does this guy belong anywhere near the oval office? I don't think so, not if he has to take a crash course in current world leaders and their nations. And certainly not if he couldn't even reference the Syrian crisis city of Aleppo (see previous link).  Yet, despite these major pratfalls, Clinton is still having to dispatch special teams to try and get the younger set on board who appear entranced by Johnson. Well, let's hope they soon wake up. Or as Bill Maher put it two weeks ago< "what the hell are you thinking?"

The general election is technically 39 days away, but in theory could well be decided before then, by virtue of early voting. I already identified eleven states for which it is already going on.  The early voting calendar and provisions, conditions can be found here:

https://www.vote.org/early-voting-calendar/

Regarding efforts to return jobs and prosperity Trump appealed to the old trope of cutting corporate taxes, and pushing the bunkum that the corporations are too impecunious (because of taxes) to create new  jobs. In fact, they have been sitting on more than $1.3 trillion and been using to do share buybacks rather than invest in new plants or labor. Putting the country in further fiscal jeopardy by cutting corporate taxes will merely make matters worse. What I loved most is seeing how Hillary got the Donald to lose his cool on multiple occasions, often leading to increased sniffling, interruptions and aimless demagoguing rather than debating. For example, at one point Hillary got a jab in noting how Trump declared climate change to be a "hoax". This elicited the instant Trump response: "I did not say that!" (He did, in 2012.) The idiot actually fired off a tweet to the effect that "the concept of global warming was created by and for the Chinese." In fact, if this ignorant twit knew anything, he'd have known that the "concept" was actually proposed more than a century ago by Svante Arrhenius, see e.g. http://warming.sdsu.edu/ But in any case, Trump was caught in another lie. Overall his lie ratio to Hillary's was something like 25:1, if anyone was actually counting. Trump went on to claim he "believes in all forms of energy" - which means the most CO2 generating fossil fuels including coal, shale oil and tar sands crap. All of which also implies he cannot take seriously their proven impacts on global warming. What I hated the most was a (mostly) meek moderator (Lester Holt) who repeatedly let this bombastic clown talk over his time limit and interrupt his opponent. I could maybe tolerate Holt overlooking Trump's parade of lies and exaggerations (which later fact checkers would expose), but when he permitted Trump to exceed his two minute limit for about the tenth time, I got fed up. As wifey asked: "What is wrong with Hillary? Why doesn't she interrupt him?" I had to point out she was probably drilled in proper debate decorum and told not to be so boorish. But as we know, Trump, on the other hand, makes up his own rules as he goes along. Of course, this appeals to his "basket of deplorables". One woman in a focus group this a.m. on CBS, asked what advice she would have given Trump last night, offered: "I'd have told him to answer the question asked, then STOP talking!" Bingo! She summarized Trump's primary debate defect in one sentence. The boor's predilection to talk over one's debate opponent as well as the moderator. As CBS political guru Bob Schieffer put it: "A debate with the worst decorum I've ever seen." (Thanks to Trump). The most amusing part was to do with Trump's taxes and him trying to compare his not releasing his tax returns with Clinton not releasing her emails. In fact, that's a false equivalence. Hillary's emails have already been litigated, both by the Justice department (FBI) and by the media. On the other hand, Trump has kept his tax matters a virtual state secret so we don't even know who he is beholden to, or if he even paid any taxes at all. When Mr. Holt asked him why he would not release his tax returns, as other presidential candidates have done for four decades. “I don’t mind releasing — I’m under a routine audit,” Hillary correctly pointed out this is total balderdash as the IRS has made it patently clear a person undergoing audit is perfectly free to release his or her tax returns. So, that was an invalid excuse, and we must wonder what nefarious aspects Trump is trying to hide. More worrisome, what mass of information might he keep from us if President? A nuclear deal with North Korea? Maybe giving them lower yield nukes (which might fit on rocket warheads) if they turn in higher yield ones? Who the hell knows? This is a character who - by his current refusal to disclose - would offer the only reply as "Trust me". As Hillary put it: "It must be something really important, even terrible, that he’s trying to hide. If he were to get near the White House,” she continued, “what would be those conflicts? Who does he owe money to?” When Trump criticized Hillary for using a private email server, Hillary didn't hem and haw this time, but came out directly and admitted: “I made a mistake using a private email,” Almost every media observer and commentator in the days leading up to last night all agreed Trump had one major task: to persuade uncommitted voters that he had the competence and temperament to be commander in chief. Most everyone also agreed that was a relatively low bar for a traditional nominee to pass, but a critical one for Trump given his history of making inflammatory and insulting remarks to almost every demographic group. Alas, for Trump groupies he failed to even meet that low standard last night. Best debate moment? When Trump brought up Hillary's stamina and she retorted: "When you travel to 112 countries and sit through a House committee for eleven hours then you can talk to me about stamina." Don't let the spinners blind you: in a crucial venue to decide the next President, Hillary Clinton made a superior case, even with her foibles. She was well prepared, had the majority of facts at her command, while Trump was grossly unprepared - opting for rambling repeats of his earlier Reepo rhetoric. Worse, he was easily rattled - often losing his train of thought - making one fear what would happen in a ferocious encounter with Putin or the Philippines' Duterte (a Trump mirror image). Hillary isn't perfect by any means, but anyone who watched last night's debate and doesn't believe she's better prepared to be President than Donald Trump either needs a brain transplant, or a psychological exam. In the choice offered in this election, she clearly trumps Trump. The rest of the world and most rational people know it. We can only hope there are enough sensible voters left in the U.S. to ensure this clown doesn't emerge a commander -in -chief. See also: http://www.salon.com/2016/09/27/hillary-dominates-and-donald-trump-gave-the-worst-debate-performance-of-any-candidate-ever/ And: http://www.salon.com/2016/09/27/the-most-abnormal-event-ive-ever-witnessed-in-a-wild-battle-between-hillary-clinton-and-donald-trump-lester-holt-was-the-big-loser/ ## Monday, September 26, 2016 ### About That Snowden- Leaked "Top Secret" Video With The English Speaking Alien Image of EBE on Snowden's recently released file video from June, 1964 The unusual "top secret" alien video released by Edward Snowden on Aug. 21 - prefaced as "Project 220675" - has incepted a lot of ruckus in cyberspace. It was evidently uploaded by Snowden as part of his recent NSA files release and still has millions of viewers puzzled, and debating its credibility. The take appears to be about 5 to 1 that the "alien" (actually an EBE or "extraterrestrial biological entity" - which claims to be from Earth's past) is either a puppet or CGI creation. Both presumptions are nonsense as I will show, and probably explained by the fact those offering them weren't alive or watching TV back in 1964. Nor did they have an appreciation for 1964 technology. First, let's start eliminating complaints that don't hold water: 1) "It was made in 2016 and fake-dated June 9, 1964" Nope. It was indeed, made in June, 1964 as the cover title indicates. The diction of the "interrogator" as my linguist friend "Rebecca" observed, "places it totally in the 1960s" including the cadence, accentuation, nasal emphasis and mid-Atlantic origin for that time, as well as turn of phrase, e.g. "Try me" One seldom, indeed, hears anyone saying "try me" these days. At least I haven't and wifey admits the same. 2) "There was no really good color TV back then" Not true! The 'Bonanza' western was very popular in 1963-64 and in full color. Walt Disney's 'Wonderful World of Color' had been airing since 1959. The color in the Snowden -leaked video file is certainly not a patch on what one saw back then, but that is what 52 years storage can do. 3) "The 'alien' is either a puppet or bad CGI" Actually, neither. Not CGI because the technology didn't exist in 1964. Nor a puppet because the blinking eyes and mouth motion make it improbable. It was likely a carefully costumed human, of which many were seen on sci -fi TV shows ca. 1963- 64 including 'The Twilight Zone' and 'The Outer Limits': See e.g. this "alien" from the latter show: Note the dimensions of the expanded skull in relation to the narrow jaw, which is somewhat similar to the 220 675 "alien". Some have commented that the latter's "glowing eyes" had to be cgi, but this again isn't true. Check out the Outer Limits episode 'The Galaxy Being' featuring a microwave alien with glowing eyes. It would be within 1964 TV technology to have those superposed on a skull such as shown above, and 'Voila!' we have Snowden's EBE. Well, at least a fair approximation. See also this image below from the Outer Limits episode 'Nightmare": Before continuing, I sent my Barbadian friend John Phillips (a bio-geneticist and biologist) the file video link, e.g. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cwIozu-plFM He vehemently disagreed with my take. According to him: "Your hypothesis is a clever debunking but doesn't hold up. This thing, whatever it is, is quite real. Look at the articulation of its limbs. More important, pause it and examine the scale (width) of its limbs and the contours of head and neck in relation to its shoulders. There is no normal, non-deformed human that could fit into any such costume. If not an actual alien, it is clearly a genetic experiment gone awry. A mutant? Maybe carried out at Area 51? Who knows? But it's definitely not a human in make up!" I pressed him also as to whether it might be a puppet but he concurred with my own assessment that the blinking eyes make that - if not impossible- about as likely as our having another major hail storm at our location before the end of the year. (However, as I summarize at the end, it could have been one of the earliest animatronic robots - which appeared at Walt Disney World by the early 1970s. Wikipedia also notes that by 1965 the first animatronics figure of a person was created by Disney. This is not to say prototypes weren't around before then - and they certainly weren't beyond the capacity of the military or security state to create - say for simulation or training purposes). Perhaps the most trenchant objection widely seen on the net is: 4) "Look how few people are interested in it, no big news media are touching it!" This is the key point for why few people are going to take it seriously even IF it was real. My argument is that the video file IS real in that it was made in June, 1964 as the date cover stamp indicates. But it is not real in the sense of a literal interrogation of a real alien from Earth's future. The giveaway is the label tag at very bottom of the cover title lead -in, which identifies the source as: Air Technical Intelligence Center (ATIC) But as anyone who's investigated UFO claims knows, that designation was changed on September 21, 1959 to Aerospace Technical Intelligence Center. The failure to alter the source label tells me that what we are looking at is indeed from June, 1964 but is a simulation of an alien interview, not an actual one. (Or, if you prefer, a mock interview.) Another clue that it's just a simulation is the "MAJ 12" on the same title, which refers to Majestic 12. This was supposedly a covert group of top specialists, scientists, government honchos, military who were keeping alien, UFO files from the public. But up to now no one has proven this secret group exists, although my now deceased middle brother Jerome (who served in the USAF) did show me some documents headed "Majestic 12 - Secret Eyes Only" in 1986. Alas, I've been unable to independently confirm the authenticity. (If I can locate the files I will post scans.) Barbadian psychologist Dr. Pat Bannister - who also proposed a theory of mind linking lying and conspiracy awareness,, e.g. http://brane-space.blogspot.com/2016/04/higher-iq-liar-children-conspiracy.html Once told me that the constant debunking of events "at the extreme spectrum of believability" e.g. like alien abductions (which a few of her patients claimed) and UFO -alien visitations, meant that if actual evidence ever was revealed it would be unlikely to be accepted. She called it the "cry wolf" template. Repeat a wild claim often enough, have it or some variation repeatedly debunked, and ultimately when the real claim is validated no one will believe it anyway. In Ufology the hoax examples are endless, from the George Adamski scam to more recent UFO and alien abduction hoaxes and claims - which anyone can find by googling. But what interested me more than the imagery was the content of the ATIC agent's exchange with the purported EBE. I found most of the EBE's answers compelling and logically coherent - as I will show -but way too prolix for a genuine EBE or alien. It appeared to me more like a human (or disguised human voice) delivering prepared responses that were intended to push the interviewer to hone his own questions. Again, more like a simulated questioning than a real one. The ATIC interrogator first demands: "State planet of origin." To which the EBE replies: "Earth." My initial reaction was "Hogwash!" - as it followed too closely the 'Conquest of the Planet of the Apes' script where three ape astronauts from Earth's distant future end up on Earth in its past (ca. 1972). However, before passing immediate judgment I wanted to hear more: The ATIC agents then states, "OK, yesterday and I quote, you told us, and I quote, 'thousands of light years to get here.'" The EBE answers "Yes." The ATIC interrogator then demands that the entity tell the truth, and delivers a threat ("I'll wring your damned neck!" ?? ) that has been subject to audio distortion. The EBE answers, "It is truth. I am from Earth. From your future. To travel in time is to travel in space. Offset spatial divergence." This is a correct description of relativistic displacement through time, which also involves movement through space back to where an object was during the target time, or forward to where it will be. Thus, movement can occur in time, and have a space offset. For example, stay where you are- maybe sitting on a chair - and let one minute elapse on your watch. You have performed a 'movement in time' and a corresponding movement in space of 460 m, based on Earth's rotation rate of roughly 1,000 mph. (I.e. you are not simply sitting on a stationary Earth but a rotating Earth). This imaginary spatial displacement can also be easily be computed, using the speed of light c: Im(x) = i(300,000 km/s x 60 s) = 18,000,000(i) km That is, you have traversed 18 million imaginary kilometers or 11.25 million miles in imaginary space. (Im(x) is the symbolic representation for an imaginary space (x) transition. This concept can also be used to invoke hypothetical extraordinary distances (and velocities, i.e. v = 2c) to show imaginary times can be obtained- but this would necessitate backward displacement in time. For time dilation we have from special relativity: t' = t [1 - v2/c2]½ Let, v = 2.0 c (the EBE's rate of displacement) so: t' = t [1.0 – 2.0]½ = t [-1.0]½ = it There are 9.5 x 1015 meters per light year Take D = 2,000 LY: D = (2,000 Ly) x (9.5 x 1015 m/Ly)= 1.9 x 1019 m Or: D = 1.9 x 10 16 km The time t' required is imaginary – worked out from:: (-1t/2.0) x (1.9 x 1016 km) / (300,000 km/s] = -i3.1 x 1010 s On this basis it appears the EBE is referencing a "space-like interval" between two events: his own origin event departure point, and his (past) Earth arrival event. From Wikipedia: "When a space-like interval separates two events, not enough time passes between their occurrences for there to exist a causal relationship crossing the spatial distance between the two events at the speed of light or slower. Generally, the events are considered not to occur in each other's future or past. There exists a reference frame such that the two events are observed to occur at the same time, but there is no reference frame in which the two events can occur in the same spatial location. For these space-like event pairs with a positive spacetime interval (${\displaystyle s^{2}>0}$), the measurement of space-like separation is the proper distance, ${\displaystyle \Delta \sigma }$: ${\displaystyle \Delta \sigma ={\sqrt {s^{2}}}={\sqrt {\Delta r^{2}-c^{2}\Delta t^{2}}}}$ (proper distance)". The ATIC agent then asks, "So aliens took over our future?" The response is "No" and the entity then explains that it evolved from us. In the spacelike interval context given above this makes sense. It evolved from us perhaps over millions of years and came from our future in imaginary time - i.e. as if using a faster than light mode of spatial displacement. In essence then, when the time between two events is shorter than that which light would take to traverse them (at c = 300,000 km/sec) the interval is "spacelike" and no causal relationship exists. Thus the previous example using v = 2c fits this mode. The EBE is then asked what it is doing here on Earth now. It answers, "Observing. Since evidence was destroyed." The ATIC interrogator asks "How?" and the EBE's answer is "Nuclear war." When asked to expand on that, the EBE responds: "Dogma. Political and religious dogma. It is the root of all major conflict of your species. In your next century, access to weaponry of mass destruction by states that are ruled by dogma will destroy your species". Note first the EBE's reference to "the next century". Since the interview year is 1964 and the comment was made in the 20th century then the "next century" is the current one - the 21st. Right now, the stage is already being set for possible nuclear confrontation between India and Pakistan. Each has 50-150 nuclear weapons and (as reported, p. 11, in the latest TIME) moved closer to conflict after 18 Indian soldiers were slain in Kashmir in a recent attack by Pakistani-led terrorists, Jaish -e-Muhammad. Quote: "Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is now under pressure to retaliate with military force." Another "dogma" state, North Korea, has recently conducted its 5th successful nuclear test and is working toward mounting nuclear warheads on ICBMs that can reach the U.S. Nations such as Pakistan, North Korea and Iran are all ruled by dogma, and all possess, or are attempting to possess, nuclear weapons. Most interesting to me is when the question is asked, "So you know how the universe was created?" To which the entity responds: "Yes." The ATIC questioner then asks, "So you've seen God?" The EBE's answer is "We have evolved past a need for superstitions, the need for a god and other myths." This suggests that the EBE or its impersonator is indicating that beyond a certain evolutionary stage the brain will have advanced beyond the need to entertain deities. Recall that this tendency is a particular property of the OAA or orientation association area. (See e.g. Why God Won’t Go Away: Brain Science and the Biology of Belief’. by Andrew Newberg and Eugene Daquill). For more on this see: http://brane-space.blogspot.com/2010/12/god-is-found-inside-brain-1.html The ATIC interrogator then suggests, "How about we concentrate on your time?" The entity responds, "You are not capable of accepting or understanding the discoveries of my time." The interrogator responds, "Try me." The EBE's response is, "the nature of the universe, the origin of so-called life, it is known." The ATIC interrogator also asks the EBE, "So how was the universe created and why is it so perfectly made for us?" This has been suggested by some (e.g. Whitley Streiber) to be a clue that the video is a hoax because the fine tuned universe idea "didn't arise until much later" (likely with Fred Hoyle's 1984 book 'The Intelligent Universe'). But in fact, the idea had been around since 1961 when physicist Robert H. Dicke claimed that certain forces in physics, such as gravity and electromagnetism, must be perfectly fine-tuned for life to exist anywhere in the Universe. This was then refined to the "anthropic principle" - proposed in Poland ca. 1973- that held only we on Earth have benefited from such fine tuning. The EBE's response is direct and takes note of the modern multiverse proposal: "There are an infinite number of universes.. Each with different physical properties. Virtually all do not support like, such as you know it We exist in a universe that does support so-called life." The EBE (or EBE impersonator) is not referring to Hugh Everett's 'many worlds' interpretation of QM but rather actual parallel cosmi incepted from the selfsame primordial vacuum state (via inflation) as our own universe. Thus, an actual primordial vacuum - not a human observer or consciousness making observational choices- is the source of the real parallel universes. Hence, all putative parallel universes plausibly emerged from the primordial vacuum the way ours did, e.g. from the Big Bang. See e.g.: http://brane-space.blogspot.com/2011/09/are-there-parallel-universes.html Just as interesting is when the ATIC agent inquires: "What happens when we die?" Whereupon the EBE replies: "Death is a human construct. It does not exist. You will experience, you have experienced, every instance of a so-called life." The ATIC agent seeks clarity, asking: "So let me get this straight. There's no death and we all experience each other's lives". To which the EBE responds, "In essence, yes." This is rather esoteric but might refer to Frank Tipler's notion of "eternal return" discussed in his book, The Physics of Immortality. A Wikipedia summation can be found here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eternal_return An alternative interpretation is one I explored four years ago, As I noted: "(Stuart) Hameroff's basic argument then, is that death doesn't mean the final termination of consciousness, so much as the end of its localization. If that is so, you cease to be a "person" or an individual identity and instead merge with other dispersed quantum wave forms (I have called them "B-waves" or de Broglie waves) to enter an "oceanic" state. " I added that this oceanic state was identified as the "implicate order" by physicist David Bohm, in his superb book 'Wholeness and the Implicate Order'. It referred to a higher dimensional reality into which we are subsumed. At another point the ATIC agent interjects: "So you know the meaning of life?" The answer is, "Not meaning, nature." The interrogator responds, "What's the difference?" The EBE's answer is, "Meaning is ascribed. Nature is the objective reality." This is a subtle point that might be missed by many. "Meaning" is what our limited brains impose on physical reality to make it more accessible. Our brains' frontal lobes evolved to parse meaning seek it out It is often culturally or religiously molded and often independent of actual facts, evidence. Nature is associated with objective physical reality, i.e. independent of our brains' filters on that reality. For example, human brains have evolved to search for meaning or purpose in the universe which is a major reason they cling to God or promote the invention of gods. These artifacts help us to assign meaning to our lives which - to the brain - would otherwise be "meaningless". Another crucial interlude opens when the ATIC interrogator asks, "What do you base your morality on?" The answer is "Compassion and evidence." The first part could easily be traced to Buddhism where compassion - for all living things - is the primary virtue taught. As an example, the compassionate person extends and enhances life for all things, even insects, birds, rats etc.. He is also incapable of hateful or destructive thoughts or inimical beliefs toward others. On the other hand, the angry person entertains hate and vicious beliefs, including that his beliefs are superior to all others and indeed, that if others don't cooperate with them they will suffer grievous future harm - perhaps in a "next life". To the Buddha, this sort of thinking exemplified the epitome of desire turned inward toward spiritual arrogance and pride. The second aspect, "evidence" has been a long time element of scientific Materialist morality, meaning that we predicate behavior on the evidence that it is constructive for the whole community not a small part of it. An evidentiary morality, indeed, would most likely be based on provisional ethics, see e.g. http://brane-space.blogspot.com/2014/08/absolutist-ethics-needs-to-be-replaced.html In summary, this video is definitely entrancing but I simply don't buy that it is a literal interview with an actual EBE. (Apologies to John Phillips, but I believe he is wrong - as he is on global warming- which he claims is "not all human-induced"). My conclusion is that it is an elaborate simulation of a potential future encounter in which an EBE might be interviewed. Perhaps ATIC intended it as a training exercise just in case a genuine EBE turned up. What is this EBE in the simulation? Possibly an audio animatronic robot, into which a pitch-altered human voice has been piped (though some insist an analysis was done which rules that out, but they haven't cited any specific source). Or it could be a severely anorexic person made up as an EBE. Who knows? In any case, what was encouraging was to at least behold answers, responses to the ATIC agent that would do any actual EBE (or alien) proud. ## Saturday, September 24, 2016 ### Colorado Climate Change Future: Grim - According to New Report Fires like this will be common in Colorado in 25-30 years. A newly released report (on Thursday) commissioned by three Front Range cities forecasts grim climate conditions for Colorado - certainly for the Front Range, and likely the entire state. This according to the Louisville, CO-based Rocky Mountain Climate Organization.. The forecast includes an increase in the average number of days with temperatures over 100 F, as well as increased precipitation for other areas, i.e. featuring severe winter or summer storms. Already, here in the Springs - two months ago- we were lashed with the worst hail storm in memory with hail stones up to the size of softballs. We just had our entire roof repaired following hail strikes with pits, holes that one roofer compared to "meteorites" - an exaggeration but he got the point over to us. Now, we are awaiting one entire south side of the siding to be replaced after it was literally ripped into multiple holes by the hail. According to the insurance company (Hartford) hundreds of homes have been affected putting enormous pressure on roofers and others in the area, now forcing wait times of many weeks to complete repairs. This is only a taste of what's to come if the RMCO projections turn out to be even 50% correct, and there's more reason to believe the probability will be a lot higher. Much of this isn't surprising in that NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) made similar predictions, including for the entire Rocky Mountain West, some six years ago. They projected hotter, drier conditions with extended droughts and enhanced fire danger especially as the forests ravaged by the mountain pine beetle spread. See, e.g. this report on the pest. http://extension.colostate.edu/docs/pubs/insect/05528.pdf What this pest does is nothing short of horrendous, in converting living plant tissue into highly flammable dead bark for which the slightest spark can start a conflagration. Those readers interested in a detailed account of the trepidations of this pest can get hold of the superb book: The Dying of the Trees. You can read a shorter account here: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/18/science/18trees.html?pagewanted=all The point is the beetle is a major catalyst for all the ongoing and uncontained Colorado wild fires, including the nearby Waldo Canyon fire four years ago. At the time I posted that thermal currents and winds also dispersed parts of the fire's burgeoning smoke plumes eastward, toward the east side of Colorado Springs where we live. Basically, if heat-trapping emissions into the atmosphere keep increasing, the northern Front Range climate by 2050 will be fundamentally different. According to lead researcher Stephen Saunders, director of RMCO,: By the middle of the century, summers here will be as hot as summers have been recently in El Paso. Half the houses in Denver today do not have air conditioning. We’re going to be facing serious threats to people’s health because of these temperature increases,” Adding: Temperature increases also will drive wildfires, increased evaporation from reservoirs, changes in snowpack, and enormous increases in energy use for air conditioning. These temperature changes will affect every aspect of our life.” Already, Denver's average summer temperature has increased. This year, the average temperature in Denver for June, July and August was 72.7 degrees — 1.5 degrees higher than the annual average of 71.2 dating to 1872, said Kyle Fredin, meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Boulder. If current trends in heat-trapping emissions continue, Denver residents by 2050 will face an average of 35 days a year where temperatures hit 95 degrees or hotter, the study found. Right now, the average is five days a year. Boulder by 2050 will have an average 38 days a year with temperatures exceeding 95 degrees and, by the end of the century, an average of 75 such days a year. The studies found Fort Collins by 2050 will have an average 24 days with temperatures exceeding 95 degrees and 58 days on average by the end of the century. These numbers may not significantly impress many people, but they should given they mean vastly more demands on the power grid, already stretched energy sources. Currently, half the houses in Denver lack air conditioning as noted above by RMCO Director Stephen Saunders. The proportion is even greater here in Colorado Springs (65%). That means more health problems for those who don't install it, but it also implies the probability of more power outs if all those people do. This is something the deniers need to register as they keep pooh-poohing consequences of a rapidly changing climate. According to a Denver Post account (Sept. 23, p 1A) the RMCO report was commissioned for the purpose of: "helping Colorado prepare and are based on government temperature data and university consortium climate models. RMCO does advocacy work in favor of limiting greenhouse gas emissions in addition to climate research. Denver environmental health officials commissioned the Denver climate analysis. Boulder and Fort Collins analyses were done as part of a$57,300 project run by the Colorado Department of Local Affairs.

Denver officials commissioned this study for \$9,000 “as a way to frame our actions on climate, both for the mitigation of climate altering greenhouse gas emissions and the adaptation to a warming, altered climate,” city spokeswoman Kerra Jones said. “This study was intended to bring real data into models that could project what that might specifically mean for Denver and the metro area.”

Officials in the three cities that commissioned the study are also painfully aware of the role of increased CO2 emissions. (An appreciation that's been slow to emerge in the right wing City Council members here in the Springs). Prompted to act,  Denver officials last year issued a Climate Action Plan calling for citywide cutting of emissions by 80 percent, below 2005 levels, by 2050.

Unfortunately, as the Post notes, "local efforts to reduce emissions from vehicles, factories, the oil and gas industry and other sources in Colorado likely would make a small difference because climate change is driven by global-scale increases in heat-trapping gases." So unless thousands of other municipalities around the planet  take action, the difference in conditions will hardly be noticeable. It is a global problem.  According to Saunders, quoted in the Post:

All this depends on global emissions. However, people around the world will be looking to see what we do here in response.”

Indeed. A prime reason we moved to Colorado 16 years ago was because we believed it to be one of the few places - given its mean altitude - that might weather the worst excesses of climate change. It now appears we were wrong, but when we look around and see the likely impacts on other areas -including Barbados - we still realize we probably have been relatively lucky. Besides, neither of us are likely to still be around when the worst arrives!