Showing posts with label Holman Jenkins. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Holman Jenkins. Show all posts

Thursday, June 27, 2019

The Past 10 Days Shows Corporo Media Remains As Clueless As Ever On How To Cover Trump




"Trump spouting off doesn’t qualify as news. But will the press ever acknowledge that before 2020?"-  Eric Boehlert, smirkingchimp.com,

Sad to say the past ten days shows the corporate (mainstream) media is as clueless as it's ever been in its ability to critically cover Trump's shenanigans.  Even the past 48 hours have disclosed demonstrations of absolutely pathetic journalism and reporting. From NBC's Richard Engel altering the words actually used by the Iranian leaders to describe the latest White House tightening of sanctions ("having mental illness" instead of "being afflicted by mental retardation") to ABC's Terry Moron....excuse me, Moran, asking Trump yesterday if he plans to block Robert Mueller from testifying.

In the Engel case, if you're a bona fide reporter, you faithfully report the words actually used by the other side when it "fires back"  (one of the media's favorite phrases) at Trump.  You do not alter them to suit some notion of political correctness or whatever. In the case of ABC's Terry Moran, a serious reporter does not toss a purposeless, inciting,  'softball'  question at a confirmed autocrat.  But that only begins to scratch the surface. 


 As media watchdog Eric Boelhert recently observed on the events since Trump's Orlando 2020 rollout (smirkingchimp.com):

"Touting Donald Trump as a "rock star," and genuflecting at the altar of his "greatest show yet," the media showered the president with unnecessary attention all last week in honor of his re-election rally kickoff in Orlando, Florida. The coverage, which was so reminiscent of 2016, raises fresh concerns about whether the news media learned anything from previous campaign about covering a whiny bully like Trump. Will journalists still view him through the lens of celebrity and hold him to almost no substantive standards, while echoing his lies and bogus attacks on Democrats? Coming off monumental failures in 2016, the press seems poised to stumble through another campaign to failure. Especially since, following the 2016 debacle, most in the press refused to concede that mistakes had been made, let alone offer up much serious self-reflection.

It's likely the White House loved how rally week played out, with an avalanche of coverage that mostly just regurgitated Trump's stale, familiar rally speech, which leans heavily on victimhood. One of the media themes regarding Trump's event was that, with his endless attacks on Hillary Clinton, he's stuck in the past. But the same point can be made about the press, which seems determined to hit rewind for 2020. And that means a return of the circus-like, spectacle-type campaign coverage Trump loves."



The preceding pretty well sums up the media's passive compliance and  incompetence in the face of a confirmed sociopath, con man and derelict buffoon they still treat as a legit, qualified leader instead of the abominable criminal he is.  And this is damned important. Because if he's given the deference due to a real, worthy chief executive instead of a wary eye and criticism, he will act the part of an unchained loon - as he has with the migrant kids locked up in abominable detention centers, or performing like a rabid ape at his recent Orlando launch rally.

My beef?  The press and media basically treats him way too seriously.   Joy Reed nailed it in her Tuesday night segment on All In, calling out the New York media especially for its kid gloves approach to Trump.  The reason? They've "known him for decades" and love covering him for the "entertainment value".  What Eric Boelhert called "viewing him through the lens of celebrity". But see, this is no longer entertainment. This is about the survival of our democracy  and not allowing it to descend into a Trumpian autocracy.(Nicole Wallace aptly says we're in a "national emergency".) Some of us can indeed see that, but too many are blind, bored or uninterested.  Especially too many in the media.

Why is it even ordinary citizens are finally seeing through this miscreant's actions and behavior but so many in the fourth estate can't?  As expressed by one letter writer to the Denver Post yesterday (p. 15A):

"Trump has marginalized just about every race, sexual preference and religion.  He's called the media the enemy.  He's ruined relations with our allies while adoring our enemies. Where's the line? What's it going to take for people (e.g. media) to condemn Trump?"

But here's the rub.  The "people" (media, the press) who should be condemning his vile behavior, or at least checking him when he grants them interviews, aren't. Twice last night I watched network TV news reporters asking Trump about the disgusting conditions at the border with migrant kids wearing clothes saturated in their own snot, urine and vomit, and only a concrete floor to sleep on.  In each case, Dotard immediately launched into his diatribe of lies, "Obama set up those cages!" and the reporters sat there deaf, dumb, stupid and stupefied. No comeback, no check, no challenge.  

That wasn't all.

Sunday I watched slack -jawed as the CBS media lapdog Margaret Brennan interviewed Bernie Sanders on 'Face The Nation' and challenged him on his opposition to Trump's Iran response.  Here's the main blow by blow from the interview which encapsulates all that's wrong with today's media and why Walter Cronkite would be gagging at Brennan's performance.

Brennan began by asking:  Was President Trump’s decision this week to call off that strike the right one?” .


With a derisive chuckle, Bernie replied,

 “See, it’s like somebody setting a fire to a basket full of paper and then putting it out. He helped create the crisis and then he stopped the attacks.

Sanders was referring to something evidently not even on Brennan's radar, that Dotard had torn up the original Iran nuclear agreement that had been working. Iran had not been processing any nuclear materials. But since it was an accomplishment of Obama, Trump had to destroy it, degenerate egomaniac that he is.

He went on noting that Trump  thinks that a war with Iran is something that might be good for this country.  Brennan interjected, idiotically and uncritically blabbing:
"He was just doing a limited strike,” .
Bernie then properly hammered this semi-qualified, media lite bimbo, his voice dripping with sarcasm:

“Oh, just a limited strike, well, I’m sorry. I just didn’t know that it’s okay to simply attack another country with bombs, just a limited strike — that’s an act of warfare.”
Indeed, and Sanders rightly let it be known by his response that a "limited" strike might not be taken as such by an already besieged nation that felt the only recourse was to hit back with full force - missiles aimed at Israel and Saudi Arabia and thousands of strikes against shipping, planes as well as strategic sites.   And this country of 80 million would not roll over like Iraq.

 Sanders basically showed Brennan how to do her job as opposed to acting as a PR pawn for the Trumpies. Not that Brennan was paying any attention, any more than Chuck Todd while providing Trump a grand stage to  bloviate on 'Meet The Press', all the time holding the imp to no substantive standards - again viewing the mutt through the lens of celebrity.  Only occasionally trying to press him, but then allowing Dotard to gain the upper hand.

After lambasting the media's coverage of the campaign rally in Orlando,  Boehlert neatly summarized how the media, namely ABC,  were the willing handmaidens to Trump's ego in a shameless hour of broadcasting his lies:

"Trump talking = news is a ridiculous formula for newsrooms to be using in 2019. Yet last week, we saw ABC News adopt that premise, when the network aired an hourlong prime-time special of, well, Trump talking. There was absolutely no news hook for the unusual programming event, which featured ABC's George Stephanopoulos shadowing Trump over the course of two days last week and recorded Trump lying relentlessly. Not surprisingly, the somnolent show was a ratings flop.  Still, the press seems committed to the idea that every Trump utterance is wildly important and newsworthy"

WHY?   Would the press confer such gravitas on a deranged ape?  I think not.  What the media need to be doing is pulling the plug on the Trump show not amping it up.  The WSJ's Walter Mead two days ago nailed Trump's shtick (p. A15):

"Trump has shrewdly deployed the power of fame. He has turned American politics into the Donald Trump show, with the country and the world fixated on his every move, speculating feverishly about what will come next. Whether threatening on Twitter to rain down destruction from the sky, reining the dogs of war at the last minute or stage managing high stakes summit meetings. He is producing episodes of the most compelling reality show the world has ever known".

And doesn't need or want!  I mean, do I really need to state the obvious that this is unnatural? That a real leader ought to be quietly working for his country in the background and not be seen or heard at every turn?  If Trump is unable to rein himself in to at least feign sanity, then it is up to the media to censor his nonstop "reality show"  mindfuck barrage,  to spare the sanity of the rest of us.  Interestingly, this would also go hand in hand with doing its job.

Boehlert again:

"And yes, the rally coverage featured the hallmark media whitewashing that so often protects Trump supporters from the harsh glare of reality. Trump was met in Orlando by "cheering and chanting supporters," reported USA Today, and by "thousands of adoring supporters," according to Politico. Both of those cheerful descriptions remind me of the bland, innocuous ways his supporters were often described in 2016. What has traditionally been missing from the nonstop deluge of Trump voter stories? A look into the dark nature of Trump Nation, and an open acknowledgment that his base is often fueled by racism. Trump's candidacy was driven by immigrant-bashing, and so too has his presidency been. But when journalists profile his faithful supporters, acknowledgment of Trump's racist rhetoric rarely comes up. The problem with that type of whitewashing is that the Orlando rally attracted throngs of proud white nationalists, who clearly have become part of the Trump's political coalition, and whose presence was not mentioned in most press reports. And really, just the whole fascist vibe of the rallies is badly underplayed by the press."


That last sentence about white washing gets to the core of the problem - the media's selective emphasis on Trump's braggadocio while downplaying the clear fascist  undertones. Oh, and failing to call out the hundreds of execrable lies each time he opens his mouth..  But alas, some Trump lubbers - like the WSJ's Holman Jenkins ( 'Trump's Finest Hour',  yesterday, p. A15)- drool over his shameless prevarication:

"He is good at bringing Trumpian impulses and instincts into every situation, including in deciding which untruths to wrap himself in."

Seriously? Trumpian impulses and deciding which untruths to wrap himself in?  Then we are appalled at the possibility Americans are becoming desensitized to Trump's lies and performances. 'Desensitized' meaning inured to them to the point of shrugging shoulders and saying 'So what? At least he didn't shoot anyone in the middle of Fifth avenue.'

Eric Alterman, writing in a piece ('Lord of the Lies') appearing in a recent issue of The Nation (June 5-10, p. 10) notes, for example:

"Daniel Dale of The Toronto Star, who tracks Trump's deceptions, says that most journalists rarely bother to mention that Trump's statements are filled with falsehoods. 'If you watched a network news segment, read an Associated Press article, or glanced at the front page of the city that hosted him, you'd typically have no idea that he was wholly inaccurate'.  Most coverage, Dale points out, reads something like 'Trump speaks to big, excited crowd, insults X and Y, talks policy Z'"

Which is a sorry, cartoonish template that - if Walter Cronkite were alive today - he'd laugh at. He'd wonder what school of journalism the perpetrators had attended - if they did at all.  Incredibly too, Trump often lies about the lies and the media almost never really hone in on it.  Well a few did when Trump blurted out in a tweet several days ago: "I had nothing to do with Russia helping to get me elected!"  Huh?  The detestable toad then denied it, insisting to the yapping press corps that he never said any such thing. A Freudian slip then?

Alterman near the end of his piece writes "thankfully most Americans don't believe Trump" - citing fewer than 3 in 10 according to a WaPO Fact Checker. However he also writes:

"What worries me, however, is that people don't realize how much more dishonest Trump is than any of his predecessors. Only about 50 percent of Americans think he is 'less honest' than any previous president".

Which thereby conflates most presidents as liars in some form and worse, fails to hurl Trump into the depths to which he belongs.  Much of this again, is because of the media and mainstream press which often repeats his idiotic tweets without criticizing them properly - merely assuming (as in the case of the Pelosi fake video) most Americans have the intelligence and sense to separate what's factual from rubbish. Well, they don't!

How to respond?  In particular how should the media treat them: as official communications with all the gravitas of a presidential official statement or announcement - through the orthodox, standard channels? Or as disruptive refuse no better than environmental toxic waste?

Some (e.g. Journalism prof Indira Lakshmanan)  have proposed repeating the tweets, but then doing a fact check. The problem with that is twofold: first, most people will have already seen the tweets say on the morning or evening news. Doing a follow-up fact check will then be too late and of minimal impact. Thus, Trumpers' erroneous beliefs and fables are merely reinforced in a kind of confirmation bias. (As manifested in a recent Justin Amash town hall, with one of  his conservo constituents, see e.g. the lead off link below.)

Second, the very act of repeating the offending tweet has the effect of dignifying it - even if unintentionally.  (The same, obviously, applied to the treatment of the Pelosi fake video).  All of which speaks to the media, national press' problem of how to cover Trump. A problem that - from where I stand - still hasn't been solved.   I fear we are going to see a replay of the "celebrity" treatment seen in 2016, as opposed to relentless and hard hitting critical coverage.  Making Trump prove all his assorted outlandish statements in interviews, at rallies etc., not just blindly accepting them because. "he's the president". 


The WSJ's William Galston at least sounded an optimistic note when he wrote ('Trump's Polling Proves Character Counts', yesterday, p. A15), noting how even polls of Republican voters show disapproval of his behavior (e.g. 41 % are "exhausted",  53% are "embarrassed"). Writing based on this:

"If my hypothesis is correct, then Mr. Trump's conduct and character will be a central issue in the 2020 general election".

Maybe, IF the media does its job and stops treating him like he's a celebrity, and instead holds him to account as an unqualified buffoon who snuck into power using the Electoral College.


See also:


Excerpt:

"With his interview of Donald Trump, Chuck Todd threw the country under the bus. He gave the president a prime-time platform to peddle his sociopathic lies, with little pushback. He gave legitimacy to those lies and the liar who tells them.


It is almost impossible to overstate the damage Todd’s boot-licking performance has does to civic discourse, public trust, cultural norms, respect for journalism, and even constitutional government. For, now, where is the bottom? What is the institution in our society that people can trust to ferret out truth from lies, sociopathy from civility? "


And:

https://splinternews.com/go-off-bernie-1835800763

Excerpt::

"The bar has gotten so low for the Trump administration these days that there’s a temptation to praise the president every time he makes a decision that, accidentally, if you squint and tilt your head a little, looks like a good idea. Take last week, for instance, when Trump called off a last-minute retaliatory strike on Iranian regime targets in response to the loss of an unmanned surveillance droneThe press, a lot of the time, goes along with this. Here’s CBS’s Margaret Brennan, framing the question in a predictably dumb way when interviewing Senator Bernie Sanders on Sunday’s Face the Nation. ...Lean in, Bernie. You’re an utterly mirthless old man confronted by a perfect encapsulation of the hypocrisy of both your potential opponent and how the press covers him. "

Friday, January 11, 2019

"The World Is Quietly Getting Better"? The Facts & Evidence Don't Support That Meme


Conflicts over roughly the last 65 years and the casualties estimate for each. World quietly getting "better"? Judge for yourself!

Once more we behold the meme of humanity "getting better", this time trotted out by Greg Ip, e.g.



Of course this is codswallop, but ironically - if facts are only in the background and dire events kept "quietly" on the backburner - or on page 23 - then yes,  it is possible to accept it.  But any study of events over the past century or so belies the claim and the incipient basis for this fantasy.    As Exhibit A readers are directed to the graphic above showing just the conflicts that have gone on for the past fifty years or so- and the numbers of dead  estimated for each.  And this doesn't even take into account the ongoing Syrian Civil war, the numbers of dead there (est. over 1 million) and the vast number of fleeing refugees.

Ip is correct that "for most of recorded history humanity lived on the brink of starvation"  and "as recently as 1980 half of the world lived in extreme poverty", i.e. consuming less than the basic necessities - valued at $1.90 a day.  Meaning that since then the lot of global humanity has improved. No argument there, but at what cost as Neoliberalism has dominated global economics?    Well, the answer appeared in the Market Outlook section of the same day's WSJ  (p. R1) exploring 'The World's Growing Debt".  That debt, as the article notes, now stands at "$250 TRILLION" - and as the author puts it, "the world has never had so much debt".  But "growing debt goes hand in hand with growing economies" . Why? Because in the Neoliberal model growth is predicated on expectation of return in the future and leverage. Hence, Neoliberal investors are prepared to use leverage to buy stocks in companies just as companies are prepared to use leverage, i.e. go into debt, to expand. 

Why is this a negative? Because growing debt cannot be sustained. It portends a depression of extreme proportions and a return to the unthinkable poverty Ip claims is a thing of the past. Think of twenty years in a Great Depression,  few or no jobs, no capital  (far less credit) to form businesses or income for citizens. Think, in other words, of the current government shutdown and no pay, zilch, but for everyone! Well, everyone except the über wealthy like Jeff Bezos',  worth $130 b.

The fact is that even now - before a calamitous trigger brings the "house" down, Neoliberal economics has been shown to be a failure. As reported in The Denver Post last Sunday ('High Number Of Americans Getting Absolutely No Raises', p. 5K):

"Nine years into what is currently the second longest recovery in U.S. history  an unusually large number of workers is still stuck with frozen paychecks."

And corroborating this, in an article in The Washington Post today about how displaced federal workers are having to sell precious belongings to make ends meet in this Trump shutdown, we read:

"In the United States, living paycheck to paycheck is disturbingly common, regardless of profession or location. A recent report from the Federal Reserve revealed how little cushion most Americans have in their budgets: Four in 10 adults say they couldn’t produce $400 in an emergency without sliding into debt or selling something, according to the figures that surveyed households in 2017, a relatively prosperous year for the American economy."

A "relatively prosperous year" but for whom?  Not for millions of middle or working class stiffs, or the federal employees caught in this shutdown atrocity spawned by the Right's blowhards - and Dotard Donnie acting as their slave.  This is all despite the fact that the GOP and Trump promised workers better wages with the massive tax cut passed in 2017.  Now, however, we see there are no real wage gains - plus we are saddled with an addition of $1.5 trillion to the national debt, now expected to top $22.5 trillion this year.  And to add insult to injury, the demented Trump vermin now talk of raiding the disaster relief funds (for Puerto Rico, Texas, California etc.) to pay for Trump's  - or rather Limbaugh's and Ann Coulter's ...Wall.

How long can the party go on? That is the question of the moment. The answer is that the payment will come due when the first major crisis erupts and the system finds itself unable to continue without the essential resources to sustain the population.  What might that be? An immediate trigger would be a devastating nuclear war  in which nearly all of ten thousand megaton warheads currently  in nuclear powers' arsenals are detonated within a day or less.  Then civilization as we know it ends, especially with nuclear winter. 

Or, it could be a global event that cripples economies across the planet such as a pandemic of Avian Flu or even a re-assorted H1N1 virus - the same which spawned the 1918 pandemic that killed 100 million. (I will have a post about this pandemic next week).  Less  likely would be a monster solar  flare hurling a super stream of charged particles in a coronal mass ejection (CME)  with the potential to knock out all our power grids and GPS satellites . Bear in mind that GPS, besides providing directions for road users, allows synchronized cell phone conversations, as well as orchestrates air traffic not to mention 'date stamping' on most financial transactions and guiding the dynamic positioning of the majority of deep sea oil drilling and gas operations. 

Don't believe the power grid is that vulnerable? Then you're living in fantasy land. The map below shows the extent of Russian hacking efforts into the power grids of at least 24 states (cf. WSJ today, 'Russia Hacked U.S. Grid', p. A9):

Map showing at least 24 states where Russian hacked into the power grid. (From WSJ, p. A9)

Then how successful were they? According to a cyber security chief (Jonathan Homer) cited in the article,  referring to a utility company briefing paper : "The Russians had penetrated the control system area of utilities through poorly protected jump boxes".  The latter are really computers that enable technicians to move between two systems: the internet and critical control networks (walled off from the web for security purposes.) 


But consider this: if the Russians could so easily create havoc - admittedly with the help of malicious or spoofed emails- imagine what a well-placed CME could do. Many experts agree a simple solution would be to install large enough resistor -capacitor systems at critical locations (e.g. near power plants or major cities)  in order to sever any CME-driven upward field aligned current connection to the grid. The problem? Major U.S. power companies don't want to assume the cost for any voluntary installations, which could run $100,000 per transformer. Hence, the grid remains unprotected against the rare - but potentially calamitous - Carrington event CME.

 

My point? The Neoliberal capitalist system, built as it is on fossil fuel consumption and competitive individualism, would not be resilient enough to survive such an event. Further, the debt amassed already would ensure returning to our present civilization unlikely if not impossible.  Hence, a dystopic future awaits  humanity  (maybe a rung or so above Dark Ages' level) though the Neoliberals can't seem to see it.

 Ip brags that "as of September half the world - 3,8 billion people - are middle class or rich" - but that is not a permanent attribute or constant. Those numbers can be wiped out in an instant by one catastrophic event - OR by an encroaching cataclysm such as extreme climate change, i.e. the onset of the runaway greenhouse.

And what of climate change? Is it even on Ip's radar? Well yes to the extent he writes:

"The warming climate is a consequence of all those new middle class entrants burning fossil fuels. Yet obsessing over such perils is how we'll likely solve them. Take global warming: Public concern over climate change is rising in the wake of wildfires and floods."

Well, if that was really true how account for the fact carbon emissions actually rose 3.4 percent the past year, e.g.

It appears to me the public is not as invested in controlling climate change as he claims, which in the first instance would mean accepting a significant fuel tax. But look how that worked out in Macron's France with all the Yellow vest riots.

This  Neoliberal blind spot, which also entails forecasting outrageously high economic growth  despite the ravages of climate change (Ip predicts GDP 400 % bigger by 2100) is more or less the same idiocy adopted by WSJ resident denier Holman Jenkins   Jenkins,  recall, insisted ('Climate Change Is Affordable', p. A15, Nov. 28) that the latest IPCC climate assessment allows us to "arrive at a manageable $510 billion in estimated climate-related costs by 2090"

 But as I noted in my post of October 10th, after the original IPCC report came out:

"The cost of doing nothing until 2040 and allowing the now forecast 4C rise (more likely 6C) by 2100 will be well over $100 trillion in worldwide costs - from the mega-disasters including massive flooding, fires, to loss of jobs, homes, infrastructure - including power stations."

And let's note that one of Jenkins' standard ploys is to whine constantly about  "doom mongers", i.e. those of us seeking to control fossil fuel consumption.  But look,  if people were rational beings, as opposed to pawns and zombies manipulated by the media pundits and BS'ers like Jenkins and his WSJ op-ed cohort, fear would not be necessary . Able -minded citizens could examine the climate news and data dispassionately e.g.   Climate report understates threat

And arrive at the same conclusion as climate scientists like Myles Allen.  Prof. Allen,  an Oxford University climate scientist and an author of the IPCC report. was quoted in one NY  Times piece after the release of the UN report:

"It’s telling us we need to reverse emissions trends and turn the world economy on a dime,”


This is, of course, why in my first post this year I predicted climate change would become unstoppable, e.g.

2019 Forecasts: Climate Change Becomes Unstoppable...

The very fact we in the U.S.  were unable to limit our carbon emissions -  even as coal plants closed - -  supports this. Totally.  I hate to puncture Greg  Ip's little pink balloon of false hope, but there it is. Sometimes you have to put on your 'big boy' pants and face cold, hard facts.

The latest news that the oceans are now 40 percent warmer ought to also strike  fear (or at least a dose of reality)  into the hearts of those like Jenkins, as well as puncture the presumptuous optimism of those like Greg Ip (and Steven Pinker).  See e.g.


Ocean heat is climbing 40% faster than thought - Axios



Hitherto, let us note, the world's oceans have provided a buffer to moderate the warming by absorbing excess CO2 in the atmosphere.  But when the seas absorb CO2 from the atmosphere carbonic acid is formed - and the oceans become acidic. The particular chemical reaction is:

H2O + CO2 -> H2 CO3

The lower the pH level in the seas ('7' is neutral pH), the more acidic they are. This is also worrisome because mass extinctions of marine creatures in the past have been linked to instances of ocean acidification.  But now with oceans much warmer it is clear we are approaching another tipping point where the limits of  the oceans' CO2 absorption may have been reached and now we may well be in for the worst.  

 Indeed, since the Industrial Revolution the acidity of the oceans has jumped 25 % from a pH of 8.2 to 8,.1 according to the U.S.  Global Change Research Program;s 2014 National Climate Change assessment. If current trends continue unchecked the acidity would increase 100-150 percent above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century, according to Carol Turley of the Plymouth Marine Laboratory in the UK. 

 But it seems now that with the oceans much warmer the carbonic acid concentrations may have peaked but the outgassing of CO2 may be not far away. If so, we may have passed the point of no return. In an article appearing  in Eos Transactions of the AGU (Vol. 83, No. 34), from August 20, 2002, ‘Progress Made in Study of Ocean’s Calcium Carbonate Budget’, we are alerted that sedimentary carbonates represent the largest reservoir of carbon on Earth. The author also notes that “a third of the anthropogenic CO2 that has been added to the atmosphere since the middle of the 18th century has been absorbed by the oceans”. This means that the oceans, acting as CO2 reservoirs, have actually masked the worst effects of global warming and that when their saturation point is reached, the spillover effect will be rapid and calamitous indeed.

The oceans now being 40 percent warmer means that saturation point is quite near. If so, the tipping point that sends our civilization crashing is also not far away, all Greg Ip's assurances notwithstanding. 

World getting quietly, relentlessly better?  Sure, from the perspective of an ostrich

Friday, December 28, 2018

Holman Jenkins' Quest For "Climate Maturity" Ought To Start With His Own Op-Eds













Image result for brane space, Holman Jenkins
Above: U.S. maps comparing increase in days each year above 95 F (top) and increase in degrees F for average summer temperatures (late 20th century vs. mid -21st century predictions).


Looks like the WSJ's Holman Jenkins is at it again, or maybe he wearied of pumping and humping his "Hillary, James Comey, FBI" conspiracy codswallop   for now.   Little Holman asks in his latest piece ('Will 2019 See Climate Maturity?" p. A16):  

"For almost 40 years, science has failed to advance on a basic question: how much warming can we expect from a given increase in atmospheric CO2"

He then goes on to cite IPCC estimates in the same ballpark as those from the Charney Report in 1979, i.e. :  "A doubling of CO2 corresponds to a temperature increase between 2.7 and 8.1 degrees Fahrenheit."  Jenkins'  purpose is to try to show the wide variability in projected temperatures doesn't square with the claim of higher CO2 being a confident temperature indicator. Hence, climate scientists are nowhere near "climate maturity" if they are unable to specify the temperature increase much better, say to a doubling of CO2 concentration

But, of course, little Holman - who likely never took a college thermal physics course in his life-  plays fast and loose using his journalistic license.  My point? The very expectation that a climate scientist can be as precise in temperature forecasts tied to CO2 is itself a sign of scientific immaturity and indeed juvenile on its face.

Let's examine why. First, what we do know is that for the previous 800,000 years (thanks to the ice core analyses of climate scientists like Gunter Weller,


CO2 levels never exceeded 300 parts per million.  Prof. Weller's results showed that the greatest ambient temperatures corresponded to the highest CO2 concentrations in the gas extracted from the ice cores.  The CO2 concentration was about 280 ppm at the start of the Industrial Revolution and is now approaching 415 ppm.    We also know (again from ice core studies) that there has never been an ice age when the CO2 concentration exceeded  200 ppm.   This is critical because it tells us (like the Keeling curve, top)  in the most general terms that CO2 is indeed tied to temperature increases.   The question then is why these increases cannot be quantified more exactly. 


One reason is the differential properties of cloud cover in terms of albedo (or degree of reflection of solar energy back into space.)  A major research paper in this regard appeared in Eos Transactions: 'Can Earth’s Albedo and Surface Temperature Increase Together’ (Vol. 87, No. 4, Jan. 24, 2006, p. 37) wherein the authors pointedly noted evidence that Earth’s albedo increased from 2000 to 2004 but that this had NOT led to a reversal in global warming. They also remarked on apparent temperature anomalies and divergence between differing altitudes but pointed to the differences between clouds at those altitudes.

The authors cited (to then) the most up to date cloud data from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP). The data – from a range of meteorological satellites covering the entire Earth- disclosed the most likely reason for the anomaly was primarily in the redistribution of the clouds. As the authors observed:

"whereas low clouds have decreased during the most recent years, high clouds have increased to a larger extent leading to both an increase in cloud amount and an increased trapping of infrared radiation.”


 The complex  issues surrounding cloud feedbacks and their relation to temperatures was discussed in a previous blog post, including the most recent research, e.g.

http://brane-space.blogspot.com/2017/01/decomposing-cloud-feedbacks-enhances.html


As I noted in that post, regading  the convergence of cloud properties in relation to global warming:

"Zelinka et al discovered that all climate models agree on the direction of three main feedbacks that accompany global warming. First, upper level clouds rise to higher altitudes in all models, warming the planet by trapping more heat. Although this was previously known, the positive feedback is actually smaller and better constrained than past research has suggested. Second, low-level cloud cover decreases in all models, warming the planet by reflecting less incoming sunlight back to space. And third, optical depth of low-level clouds increases in all models, cooling the planet by reflecting more sunlight."


The progress toward tying cloud properties to higher temperatures is a work still in progress and requires not only factoring in albedo, but also resolving the types of cloud feedbacks into the underlying mechanisms in play.  Until this aspect is resolved, and given the wide distribution of cl0uds in the atmosphere, there will be large uncertainty in terms of the predicted temperature.  Is Jenkins even aware that no  experimental scientific quantity is given as a single absolute number but with a range "+" ?  I doubt it. 

What about temperature measurements themselves?  Much needed light was shed on this by Thomas Karl, Director of the National Centers for Environmental Information of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, in a June 4, 2015 paper which appeared in the journal Science.

This concerned inconsistent data treatment, particularly in processing sea surface temperatures - especially as measured by buoys.   This error was likely compounded in conjunction with the misinterpretation of Hadley UK Center future projections on climate that I've already discussed at length, e.g.

http://brane-space.blogspot.com/2013/06/george-will-no-warming-for-last-16.html

I would even venture to say that the preponderance of false judgments by too many (mainly conservatives like George Will,  i.e. in his only recent appearance on Bill Maher's Real Time) is due to inadequate study of the climate backstory. That includes the role of changing carbon isotope ratios over geological time, e.g.

http://brane-space.blogspot.com/2010/12/carbon-isotope-ratios-and-climate.html

As Thomas Karl observed, quoted in Eos Transactions - Earth & Space Science (July 1, 2015):

"The biggest takeaway is there is no slowdown in global warming".

Indeed, he added that warming the past fifteen years is the "strongest it's been since the latter half of the 20th century". Putting an exclamation point on that, July that year (2015) was the hottest July since records were initiated. 

Readers can learn more on  the background issues here:


http://news.mit.edu/2017/correcting-records-thomas-karl-0425

Why the measurement difficulty? Well, because the data gathering and process of analysis are inherently complex.  In order to achieve such measurements, i.e. as to how Earth's average global temperature is increasing, there's a lot of "sausage making".  


First, scientists must combine thousands of measurements from Earth's surface, taken by land instruments, ships. buoys and orbital satellites.  Second, each of these has its own random errors, all of which must be identified. Not only must researchers comb through the data to eliminate these errors, they must also correct for any differences in how each type of instrument measures temperature.

Thus, the authors of Prof. Karl's  Science paper had to dig into NOAA's global surface temperature analysis data to examine how sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were being measured. SSTs are measured in various ways:



-  collecting ocean water in a bucket and measuring its temperature directly

- measuring the temperature of water taken in by a ship engine as a coolant

- using floating buoys moored in the various oceans

Each technique records slightly different temperatures in the same region so scientists have to adjust and 'harmonize'  the data. In the past couple decades the number of buoys has increased - adding 15% more coverage to the ocean. But because buoys tend to read colder temperatures than ships at the same locations, a measurement bias is introduced which must be corrected for. This was the primary task set out by Karl et al.  They corrected for the bias by adding 0.12C to each buoy temperature.
 


By then combining the ocean data with improved calculations of air temperatures over land around the world, Karl and colleagues found that overall global surface warming over 2000-14 was 0.116C per decade or more than twice the estimated 0.039C starting in 1998 that the IPCC had reported.


Basically then, the WSJ's know nothing climate opinionators  like the editors,  Holman Jenkins, Dan Henninger etc. are guilty mainly of rank ignorance in: a) not knowing how sea surface or other global temperatures are processed, and b) failing to appreciate the significance and why the rise in temperatures fully comports with Hansen's model.  Oh, and oversimplifying the CO2-temperatures connections with the intent to misinform.

All of this also comports with the latest reports  from the IPCC, e.g.

http://brane-space.blogspot.com/2018/10/new-ipcc-report-confirms-humans-have.html


And even warnings from the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists that the warming risks are understated, e.g.

Climate report understates threat

Excerpt:

"So far, average temperatures have risen by one degree Celsius. Adding 50 percent more warming to reach 1.5 degrees won’t simply increase impacts by the same percentage—bad as that would be. Instead, it risks setting up feedbacks that could fall like dangerous dominoes, fundamentally destabilizing the planet. This is analyzed in a recent study showing that the window to prevent runaway climate change and a “hot house” super-heated planet is closing much faster than previously understood."



Jenkins' biggest wet dream is the Right's "carbon tax" idiocy which he claims:

"For decades this was the recommended policy of economists of every political disposition, but increasingly dismissed on the hard-bitten left as 'right wing dogma'"

Well, he has the last part correct, but why? Well, because this "tax" - the spawn of economists who fancy themselves real scientists like physicists -  has nothing but hot air behind it.  It is a mere McGuffin, tossed out for the non critically thinking to guzzle as a specious counterpoint to actual fuel taxes.  The reason is because "The revenue obtained via the tax is not always used to compensate for the carbon emissions on which the tax is levied"  

More specifically, if you are going to tax something, the price or value needs to be known. But up to now  all efforts of U.S. legislation that might have put a price on carbon have failed.  So there's no known way to practically tax it and hence to compensate for actual carbon emissions.  In other words the whole scheme is a joke.  It will not delay or abate the coming Climate Armageddon one iota.   This is what leads little Holman to belch such bollocks as:

"If climate politics reaches its overdue maturity, it will advance on the right rather than the left under the aegis of tax reform."

That form of "advance", of course, will mark zilch in physical reality - where it counts - and by then we will already be in the throes of the runaway greenhouse.  I hope Holman and his Right cadre of nincompoops have plenty of emergency generators to keep their a/c going when the runaway emerges.  They will need it.

It is evident to me that Holman Jenkins, along with his denier cohort,  are the ones who need to attain climate 'maturity'.   A first step would be to see if they are even qualified to comment on climate change, say by passing the thermal physics quiz below:

---------------------------
In each case, either solve the problem as given, or provide the correct answer (A, B, C , D or E) for multiple choice:

1) An air conditioner has a power rating of 1.0 kilowatt. A solar panel on the roof of a house has a collective efficiency of 12% and is 5 meters by 5 meters. The solar power (insolation) constant is 1360 watts per square meter. Assuming the ac will be run from 11 a.m. to 4 p.m. , will the panel be able to achieve the objective? Assume no cloud cover, and no significant variation in insolation. Show all working.

2) A hot air balloon of constant volume contains air at 100 C. The fraction of this air which escapes if the temperature is increased by 1 K (Kelvin) – the pressure remaining constant is:

A) 1/ 373 B) 1/ 273 C) 1/ 100 D) 374/373 E) 101/100

3) The first law of thermodynamics is often stated in the form: Q = DU + W. Which of the quantities, Q , DU or W must necessarily be zero when a real gas undergoes a change at constant pressure?

A) Q only B) DU only C) W only D) none of DU, Q, W E) all of DU. Q, W

(Note Q denotes heat added, W is work done, and DU denotes change in internal energy)

4) Two identical copper calorimeters of mass 0.1 kg contain 1 kg of water and 2 kg of alcohol, respectively. It’s found that they both take 60 minutes to cool from 350 K to 300 K under similar conditions. Find the specific heat of the alcohol (in J/ (kg K) ) based on this information:

A) 600 B) 2060 C) 2100 D) 2140 E) 3800

5) Which of the following statements about temperature is NOT true?

A) It represents the amount of heat contained in the body.
B) It is a measure of degree of hotness or coldness of a body
C) It is a property that determines the direction of heat flow in a body.
D) It is a measure of the average kinetic energy of the particles of which it’s composed.
E) It may be measured by examining the length of a column of mercury.

6) A detector of thermal energy is placed an equal distance in turn from each of four faces of a hollow metal cube full of water. The reading on the detector is greatest when the face is turned toward the face that is:

A) painted silver B) painted shiny white C) painted dull black
D) highly polish E) neither of the faces makes any significant difference

7) A bottle of water is placed in the freezer of a fridge and forgotten. It’s recovered after 24 hrs. and found to be broken. The reason for breakage is:

A) the bottle expanded as it cooled 
B) water expanded more than the bottle as it froze
C) the bottle contracted as it cooled
 D) the water contracted as it froze
E) the water and bottle both expanded as they cooled

9) The diagram below shows two bodies of equal mass (A and B) within a thermally insulated material. A has a thermometer inserted to take readings. A was initially at a temperature of 100C and B at 50 C when placed in thermal contact.


[ [A][B] ]


a) Find the temperature of the system of two bodies in thermal equilibrium. Is this the same as the reading of A’s temperature? (Show work, explain)
b) Which body undergoes a positive change in entropy?
c) Which body undergoes a negative change in entropy?
d) What is the total entropy change for the system, A + B?

10)a) Describe the principle of operation of a basic, glass-enclosed greenhouse. What specific features enable more heat to be collected within than available from the immediate, outside environment?

b) One kilogram of mercury is initially at 0 C. Find its change in entropy when heat is slowly added to raise its temperature to 100 C.

Data: Heat of fusion for Hg = 1.17 x 10 4 J/ kg, specific heat (Hg) = 138 J/ kg C; Melting temperature (Hg) = -39 C)

Specific heat (H2O) = 4,200 J/ kg C

Marking scheme: Problems 1 through 8, 8 marks each. Problem 9: 16 marks ; Problem 10: 20 marks