Will Trump Allow Space Weather Prediction Initiatives To Proceed?

Several posts ago (July 18) I highlighted how our space weather forecasts are rendered replete with errors by virtue of changing magnetic fields. These can be localized solar region fields such as occur near sunspots (and which trigger large flares) or larger scale solar magnetic fields that interact with Earth's magnetosphere.  In any case, space weather research is motivated by the quest (and need) to understand the proximate and distal effects that solar activity has on the near Earth space environment. It also includes the effects on our electronic infrastructure.

In my June 10, 2012 post I noted that the CME (coronal mass ejection) you don't want to see is the one that smacks our planet broadside, sending power grids crashing down like so many tenpins, knocking out GPS satellites, and in general making life miserable for millions. As I noted in an earlier blog:

http://brane-space.blogspot.com/2012/01/monster-plasma-blob-headed-for-earth-is.html

 We narrowly dodged such a monster six months before that blog post was written.  Less well known is that barely five weeks later, on July 23, a solar storm manifested which had a magnitude comparable to the classic Carrington event. It narrowly missed Earth but provided an object lesson on the need to plan and monitor for such intense events.

While it is some comfort to know that flare energy (as well as that to power coronal mass ejections) is limited by the magneto-hydrodynamic potentials available on a star like the Sun, this is not really much consolation if and when a major energy burst whacks us straight on broadside with 1 million amp field-aligned induction currents that have the potential to take out all our power grids in a cascade of failures. Space weather aficionados call such maxi-catastrophes "Carrington Events" after the signature original event that transpired in September, 1859. This event incepted geo-magnetic currents so large that for days telegraph operators could actually disconnect their equipment from battery power and send messages solely via the emergent "auroral currents".

In our own current situation, we've become a more vulnerable society by constructing mammoth, interlocked  power grids which can crash if the right combination of factors is imposed. While we do have high voltage transformers that connect directly to the ground (zero or earth potential) to neutralize power surges from lightning strikes, these don't afford any protection against powerful geo-magnetic currents that are induced in the earth and flow upward into the grid. Then ...one such mammoth event, could spark calamity.

Over the last two years of the scientifically savvy Obama administration, notice was taken of these solar events and a strong impetus provided to monitor space weather and devise strategies for forecasts and dealing with impacts. In October, 2015, for example, the White House Office of Science and Technology released the National Space Weather Strategy:

http://bit.ly/space-weather-strategy


And also an accompanying action plan:

http://bit.ly/space-weather-action


Subsequently, an October 13, 2016 executive order called for space weather preparedness and efforts to minimize the extent of economic loss and human hardship from adverse space weather events such as powerful CMEs. See, e.g.:

http://bit.ly/space-weather-EO


One thing all workshop participants agreed on even then is that despite major developments in space weather modeling, the forecasting is still in its infancy. As I pointed out in my previous post on space weather, a lot of this can be attributed to inadequate data or observations by which to construct theoretical models. Let us note here that these are the gold standard for prediction, as opposed to relying on brute statistics - often using ex post facto methods.

One of the shortcomings which I noted before is the dearth of space craft between Earth and the Sun. One of the primary monitoring craft we have is confined to the L1 (Lagrangian) point i.e. where Earth's and Sun's gravities balance out. This is the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) satellite which can measure the intensity and magnetic orientation of any CME that sweeps by it. There is also the Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) and the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO).

A huge current problem is that ACE is nearly on its last legs and a replacement monitor is needed, lest we become "blind" to the killer CME with our name on it.

Is the Trump bunch doing anything to repair the ACE or ensure the other craft remain in prime monitoring positions? We don't know but it appears all these programs have been left to languish along with the development of forward strategies to deal with space weather cataclysms. One thing we do know is the space budget has been cut and severely.

The biggest need currently is open access  to models in space weather research. Such models being readily accessible to the space weather community will ensure we move forward expeditiously in forecasting, testing and validating models.

On the positive side, . Ed Perlmutter (CO-7th) introduced the Space Weather Research and Forecasting Act.  The Act strengthens space weather research by directing federal agencies to develop new tools and technologies to improve forecasting and set benchmark standards to measure space weather disturbances and their potential impacts to Earth. The legislation outlines clear roles and responsibilities for the federal agencies which study and predict space weather events, including the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the National Science Foundation (NSF), the Department of Defense (DOD), and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA).

Additionally, the legislation enhances the relationships between federal agencies, academic researchers and the commercial industry. The legislation also directs NOAA to develop plans to provide a back-up for the aging Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) satellite, the only currently operating satellite providing imagery of space weather that could impact Earth.

Even if by some small chance the Act passes the House, we have to hope it also passes the Senate and that Trump manages to muster enough sense to sign it. Don't hold your breath.

See also:

http://www.spaceweather.com/

New Research Into The 'Slow' Solar Wind Sheds Light On Its Source.

The solar wind is a  1, 610,000 km/h stream of charged particles constantly emitted by the Sun in all directions. However, solar wind dynamics are maddeningly complex as the original contributors to the Solar-Terrestrial Predictions Workshop held in Meudon, France (1986) learned.

For example, fast solar wind can attain speeds in excess of 500 km/s and emerges from coronal holes. These latter comprise dark holes visible in coronal imagery indicating where the Sun's magnetic field lines open up and extend into space thereby providing an escape channel for hot solar plasma. In the coronal image below these holes, as well as magnetic field arches, can clearly be seen:

This fast solar wind  is differentiated from the much slower moving stream of solar wind that floods the solar system continuously, and defines the "slow wind". It defines what we call the heliosphere which is essentially the solar wind's" bubble of influence.

The heliosheath occurs at the far edge of the heliosphere. More technically, it occurs between the "termination shock" and the "heliopause".

Thus, it marks a boundary at the edge of solar system space. In May 2005, NASA announced that Voyager 1 had crossed the termination shock and entered the heliosheath in December 2004, at a distance of 94 AU. 

While we can tie the fast solar wind to coronal holes, the origin of the slow solar wind has proven far more difficult to untangle.  One way to possibly resolve the issue is to examine data from the slow wind  intercepted by several near Earth spacecraft.

In fact, this has been reported now by Kepko et al (Geophysical Research Letters, 2016)  see e.g.

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL068607/full


who have used such data to trace the slow wind's origin. This entailed examining its charge state ratios. For example, it has been found  that the ratio of charged oxygen atoms (ions)  O+7/ O+6,   well reflects and tracks the level of entropy and conditions at the solar surface (cf. Wimmer-Schewingruber et al, 1997, J. Geophysical Research)  Thus, the slow solar wind exhibits higher  O+7/ O+6  ratios than the fast wind.  The slow wind also displays high  O+7/ O+6 variability (cf. Zurbuchen et al, 2000, op. cit.).

The point is that these charge state ratios as well as elemental composition can serve as "fingerprints" for the specific conditions that generate the solar wind. The authors used measurements of charge state abundance and composition measurements at 12 minute intervals made by the ACE (Advanced Composition Explorer)  and WIND spacecraft.  The research team found that the plasma measurements fluctuated at roughly 90 minute cycles.  (This agreed with previous research on charge state and composition variability)

Thereby, Kepko et al discovered that the charge state and composition properties of the slow solar wind oscillate in nonrandom patterns. The oscillations occurred between patterns more typical of fast solar wind and more typical of slow wind. Specifically, the proton (H+) density within the plasma was three times higher at the midpoint of the cycle before decreasing. Meanwhile, the helium, carbon and oxygen abundances peaked late in the 90 minute cycle.

This pattern of oscillation indicated the charge state and composition of the slow wind originate in the solar atmosphere itself, not in transit from the surface. How can this be? Well, only magnetic reconnection at the solar surface could cause the solar wind to alternate properties characteristic of both fast and slow aspects. In other words, what we have is strong evidence for a magnetically-driven slow wind source with the potential to overturn previous models. As the authors put it (op. cit.):

"The major conclusion from our study is that the slow solar wind exhibits a quasiperiodic variability with a time scale of ∼90 min, with a repeatable, systematic, elemental abundance signature. Further, on this time scale, the wind speed shows no correlation with the repeatable charge state or elemental abundance signatures.

This result has far-reaching implications for understanding slow wind origin. First, it rules out all quasi-steady models such as the expansion factor. In the quasi-steady models the solar wind plasma properties in any flux tube are set by the geometry of the flux tube in the corona, which determines the heating and momentum deposition along that flux tube."

In the above quote what Kepko et al are referring to are the "expansion factor" wind models that predict the slow wind issues from the tube like stretches of space containing the solar magnetic field as it peels off into space away from the Sun at the edges of coronal holes. Thus, the authors' model offers instead strong evidence for a magnetically driven slow wind source..

Why is it important which model is correct? Because we will then  be able to more accurately forecast solar wind phenomena including the occurrence of magnetic substorms at Earth's magnetophere.  In effect, we would be better able to protect infrastructure, including power grids on Earth, from the vagaries of space weather.

Calming the Hysteria: No, Earth Wouldn't Have Been "Destroyed" Had That Flare-CME Struck

As usual, much of the media has to use hysteria to command attention. And so numerous media sources reported in the past few days that a monster solar flare- that erupted two years ago (July, 2012) could have "destroyed the Earth", while others asserted "we'd have been sent back to the Dark Ages."  All that, if the event had occurred a week earlier.


According to an astrophysicist from University of Colorado quoted by The New York Post:

"If it had hit, we would still be picking up the pieces,”

He then added:

"I have come away from our recent studies more convinced than ever that Earth and its inhabitants were incredibly fortunate that the 2012 eruption happened when it did.  If the eruption had occurred only one week earlier, Earth would have been in the line of fire.”

Yes, but "line of fire" doesn't mean the end of civilization.

Sadly, much of this was based on exaggeration and hysteria.  Note I had also referenced the effects of CMEs or coronal mass ejections in earlier blogs, and the expected effects on human civilization, e.g.

http://brane-space.blogspot.com/2012/06/cme-that-you-dont-want-to-see.html

Based on the above content (and other posts I've written on the subject) the Post did get this much correct:

"It’s believed a direct CME hit would have the potential to wipe out communication networks, GPS and electrical grids to cause widespread blackout.......Just 10 minutes without electricity, Internet or communication across the globe is a scary thought, and the effects of this event could last years. It would be chaos and disaster on an epic scale."

Well, uh yeah, things would get very inconvenient! Make no mistake people would likely have to do without their computers, smart phones, Ipads, Facebook, GPS systems for 6 months or so, maybe longer. The NASA release also made some rough analogies to the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and "disabling everything that plugs into a wall socket" as well as "most people wouldn’t even be able to flush their toilet because urban water supplies largely rely on electric pumps.”

In other words, you'd definitely be faced with horrendous and messy issues in the wake - but "back to the Dark Ages" ? Well ok, maybe for a few months. But it would not compare to the aftermath of a nuclear war, for example, which could erupt if we were stupid enough to follow the advice of Johnno McCain and other dumbass Reeptards to "teach Putin a lesson".

But equating not having internet or smartphones or Facebook to the "dark ages" - that's a bit of exaggeration! Well, ok, maybe not given the extent to which most moderns are hooked on all these devices and pastimes.

But as I noted in the above line to do with CMEs, many of the problems that might be caused by their smacking us at the most inopportune time are soluble. For example, our power grids could be protected by the simple expedient of installing large enough resistor -capacitor systems at critical locations (e.g. near power plants or major cities)  in order to sever any CME-driven upward field aligned current connection to the grid. Recall from my basic physics blog, e;g. http://brane-space.blogspot.com/2011/06/introduction-to-basic-physics-electric.html    that resistors act to limit current and also capacitors can do the same by collecting charge.

The problem? Major U.S. power companies don't want to assume the cost for any voluntary installations, which could run $100,000 per transformer. Hence, the grid remains unprotected against the rare - but potentially calamitous - Carrington event CME that smacks us broadside.

Government, of course, could easily provide subsidies to help pay for the C-R systems to protect the transformers, but the moron Tea Baggers infecting our nation (and one whole party)  won't hear of such a thing. They won't tolerate giving any "blank check" to government to subsidize  power companies, especially to build capacitative-resistance systems to protect our power grids. These jerks with their triangle hats still live in the 1790s, after all!

Ok, so forget the "expensive" solution above. Even a bit of help could still be available if we knew the direction of an oncoming powerful CME event and had some time to prepare. Right now such an entity exists: the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) satellite which can measure the intensity and magnetic orientation of any CME that sweeps by it. The problem is that ACE is nearly on its last legs and a replacement monitor is needed.

Fortuitously, a fully -ready space craft that can undertake ACE's duties exists. The problem? This Deep Space Climate Observatory (or DSCOVR) sits mothballed in storage at the Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt,  Maryland. It sits idle because the Obama administration's $47.3 million budget request to refurbish and launch DSCOVR has been forthwith rejected by the Republican-controlled House.

So there it sits, and here we sit, on a planet becoming ever more vulnerable to the ultimate 'blowback' from  the Sun's "burps" - as Neil deGrasse Tyson called them on Bill Maher last night.

So maybe, just maybe, the Reepos really don't care if people have to do without Facebook or smartphones for a half a year, or can't flush their toilets for lack of electric power. I mean, they still haven't furnished all the money needed for the Superstorm Sandy victims, many of whom still sit in darkened homes without electricity or running water.

Maybe the Republicans would prefer that condition for the whole country!