Monday, January 20, 2025

The Irony: A Climate Change Denier Acknowledges It's Real - By Scurrying Indoors For His Inauguration

                    

"I gotta move my inauguration indoors 'cause of a polar vortex!!"

Diagram showing extent of 2022 polar vortex


John F. Kennedy did his speech without an overcoat in a 7-degree wind chill.. But Trump posted on Friday that the “Arctic blast” would force the shindig inside, to the Capitol Rotunda. Given Trump’s obsession with crowd size, many wondered if he was just shivering at the thought that the weather would keep spectators away.” – Maureen Dowd, “Trump Brings A Chill To Washington’, NY Times, Jan. 18

"So much for global warming!"

That was the emphatic declaration of an acquaintance in Barbados when the last polar vortex arrived a couple of years ago.

Casual ignorance in scientific matters always appears to surface when contra-indicated events occur - like the polar vortex- in an era like global warming.  Which we are in, otherwise called  "the Anthropocene"  I.e. the current geological age, viewed as the period during which human activity has been the dominant influence on climate and the environment.

So the exceptionally cold temperatures expected in D.C. today, for the felon's inauguration, seem to contradict what we know scientifically. Hence it incepts cognitive dissonance amongst the hoi polloi, and especially climate change-global warming deniers like Dotard Trump. But lo and behold Dotard has reacted as if climate change is real, because he has acknowledged the polar vortex swooping down on Washington is real. And the polar vortex is a direct offshoot of global warming.

So let's try to trace the logical sequence here for those who somehow believe the frigid air driving Trump's event indoors mean global warming is a "hoax" (In the words of the late climate change denier, Screwball Senator  James Inhofe (OK).)

The first element is the Arctic air dipping deep into the States (see top graphic from 2022 vortex), which we now know is a result of what's been called the polar vortex.  Technically, the Arctic polar vortex, is a ring of strong westerly winds that form between 10 and 30 miles (16-48km) above the North Pole every winter, enclosing a large pool of extremely cold air. The stronger the winds, the more air inside is isolated from warmer areas. When the vortex is stable, the polar jet stream shifts northward, helping to keep the coldest air within the Arctic.

However, when this stable scenario breaks down, it can mean an intense cold snap at mid-latitudes, where the U.S. lies. When the vortex weakens, its pattern of winds changes from a circular ring to a wavy band that loops further south. This unleashes the cold weather normally retained at the pole further to the south. One senior Accuweather meteorologist has described it:

"like a large chunk of ice that breaks off of a glacier and floats southward with the current – with the current being the jet stream winds." 

The polar vortex doesn't always influence the weather in the mid-latitudes, but when it does the effects can be extreme.

                                                                         

Prof. Gunther Weller, UAF, 1985


The phenomenon was originally proposed by a climate scientist - Prof. Gunther Weller-  of the University of Alaska-Fairbanks, more than 39 years ago. (When I was a research assistant in space physics at UAF. Weller's office being just down the hall from mine at the Geophysical Institute.) 

He defined it as a normally stable system circulating around the Arctic, like a massive cyclone. (Weller called it a "stable polar cyclone".)   However, with increased warming in the Arctic-  especially more than anyplace else on Earth-  the circulation in the vortex was weakened and the vortex’s frigid air spills southward – discharging energy and creating the record breaking cold we’ve been seeing.  

Prof. Weller’s original work at UAF entailed extraction of Arctic ice cores from a depth corresponding to geological time frames, dating back 80,000 years. His results, from 1986-87 showed the greatest ambient temperatures corresponded to the highest CO2 concentrations recorded in the ice cores. Also, the largest increases in temperature have occurred over recent decades, when the CO2 concentration has been highest.

Prof. Weller and climatologist colleagues in the Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences also proposed the concept of “tipping point transitions” for climate, for which the control parameter (e.g. CO2 concentration) governed critical inputs (global mean temperature, heat index, etc.) as well as external (weather) conditions, including rainfall, drought, storms and the onset of a hypothetical polar vortex (not yet established in 1985,  see e.g.

Five Major Climate Tipping Point Manifestations & What They Mean

But at the same time the most distorted polar vortices allow a flow of warm air into the Arctic, e.g  see top graphic from 2022 event.  In other words warming a region that ought to remain frozen over in the planet's natural state.

In other words, the polar vortex is the first sign of an ongoing Arctic instability associated with its extraordinary polar warming - again first revealed by Prof. Weller as early as 1986. Further, Weller predicted the vortex events will become more extreme as the melting ice proceeds faster. Hence the instability will become more and more pronounced leading to more extreme events in the years to come, finally leading to the ultimate - the runaway greenhouse effect

By then, the Arctic 'fridge' will have been totally defrosted leading to monumental climate upheaval and prolonged heat waves around the world - as well as the first "year of no seasons."

Bottom line: Don't take the frigid D.C. temperatures today as any evidence there is no global warming! But do take Trump's running inside the Capitol Bldg. with his Tech Bro billionaires as evidence that he finally believes global warming is real. After all, he's taking the polar vortex as real.  

On another, somewhat related, note I applaud the Clintons, the Obamas and Nancy Pelosi for absenting themselves from today's atrocity: the installation of a felon as president of these United States. And I am not along, e.g.

by Robert Reich | January 19, 2025 - 6:27am | permalink

— from Robert Reich's Substack

The day on which we celebrate Martin Luther King Jr.’s birthday will also be one of the darkest and most shameful days in the history of this nation, when the man who attempted a coup against the United States will be sworn in for the second time as president.

Let me reassure you about a few things.

First, if you’re outraged, disgusted, or depressed by this, you are hardly alone. Even though Trump got the most votes, his margin of victory was razor-thin. More than a third of eligible voters (many of whom voted for Biden in 2020) didn’t even vote. According to yesterday’s New York Times/Ipsos poll, most Americans are either worried or pessimistic about Trump’s second term. Half of America hates him.

I also want to assure you that although Trump is bonkers, his madness will be contained.

The federal courts — most of whose judges were nominated by Democratic presidents — will help limit his illegal or unconstitutional recklessness. (The Supreme Court reviews fewer than 1 percent of federal cases.)

Trump’s own obsession with the stock market will limit his wilder economic ideas, such as imposing tariffs on all nations, which would cause the market to plunge.

The Republican majority in the House is so narrow that a couple of members can derail or kill anything Trump wants.

» article continues...

See Also:

by Jaime O’Neill | January 20, 2025 - 7:02am | permalink

"As long as a single thing is there to suppose...somebody will be there to suppose it."
— Saul Bellow, The Actual, his penultimate novel.

Countless people living and dead have borne more sorrows than we may have yet known, but we have known our share of sadness, too. No one gets through this vale without tears.

But I can think of no sadder day than this one, January 20, 2025, a day that will live in infamy no matter how much effort and expense goes into prewriting history and sugarcoating this bitter pill. We are destined to be fed more lies more steadily by even more sources of fascist re-fashioning of reality. History shows little hope that the richest people will ever show mercy to those who are not rich. The weight of darkness descending on us is palpable. The sense of powerlessness is hard to bear. Hope is hard to muster. We know bad things are coming; we take refuge in a desperate desire that the future will be less bad than we imagine. We steel ourselves.

» article continues...

And:



And:

by Chuck Collins | January 18, 2025 - 5:58am | permalink

by Chuck Collins and Sarah Cohen

Welcome to the age of Oil-Garchy, where the concentrated wealth and power of the fossil fuel industry dominates our political system. After donating heavily to Trump’s campaign, the industry has already begun to reap return on their investments.

Trump has nominated some of the most vociferous climate deniers and advocates for the oil, gas, and coal industries for key positions overseeing the environment, energy, and public lands. Former Congressman Lee Zeldin has been nominated to run the Environmental Protection Agency and Chris Wright, CEO of fracking company Liberty Energy, is poised to oversee the Energy Department.

In addition to putting drillers in charge of the watershed, the financial returns are beginning to flow in likely anticipation of pro-oil and gas policies. The top 15 fossil fuel industry billionaires have already seen their personal combined wealth rise from $267.6 billion to $307.9 billion, a gain of over $40 billion, or 15.2 percent since April 2024.

» article continues...

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