Stellar Emission and Absorption Processes Revisited (1)

In a previous set of blog posts from six years ago, e.g.

http://brane-space.blogspot.com/2012/04/simple-solar-radiative-transfer-1.html

I examined the basic conditions for radiative transfer in a stellar medium or atmosphere. Of course, this is barely one half the story. Ultimately, the solar physicist examines radiative transfer to obtain first clues in how to understand emission and absorption processes which can occur in that atmosphere.

In this post we examine details of emission and absorption in terms of what are called transition probabilities.  Basically one can consider and evaluate three possible cases:

i)                   A stimulated emission probability

ii)                 A spontaneous emission probability

iii)               An absorption (or negative emission) probability

We will use a condensed notation in order to not have too much notation clutter within a limited blog post space To do this we will apply the following symbols to the differing probabilities:

A₂₁ = spontaneous emission probability;  I _{u 21} B ₂₁  =  stimulated emission probability,  and lastly,   I _{u 21} B _12.   =  absorption probability 

    Of critical importance in considering transitions between energy states are the statistical weights of the states, which we denote by g. Then given statistical weights[1], say g₁ and   g ₂, we first wish to show that:

g₁    B _12.  =   g ₂ B ₂₁

 In other words, the absorption probability for state g₁ must be equal to the stimulated emission probability for state g_2..  There can’t be more transitions than the numbers of electrons available for them in those states. For thermal equilibrium, especially, we have detailed balancing. i.e. the number of transitions from level one to level two must be equal to the number of transitions from level two to level one.

From level 1 to level 2 we may write:  N₁ I _u  B _12.

From level 2 to level 1 we write:  N₂  (A₂₁   +  I _u  B _12.)

For detailed balancing we require:

 N₁ I _u  B _12.   =  N₂  (A₂₁   +  I _u  B _12.)

We note here that in thermodynamic equilibrium Boltzmann’s equation applies:

N₂ / N₁   =  I _u  B _12./ (A₂₁   +  I _u  B _12.) =  

 [g₂ / g₁ ]   exp (- E2 – E1) / kT

Where E2, E1 designate the respective energy levels.

Then:  I _u  =  2h u ³ / c ²  [1/ exp (hc/lkT]

As T ® ¥     and  I _u  ® ¥  

 Then:

  B _12./ B ₂₁    =  g₂ / g₁   or   g₁    B _12.  =   g ₂ B ₂

We also need to show, for detailed balancing:

A _21./ B ₁₂    =  2h u ³ / c ²  [g₂ / g₁ ]

We use:

I _u  B _12. =  

(A₂₁   +  I _u  B _21.) [g₂ / g₁ ]   exp (- E2 – E1) / kT

And:

I _u [B _12.- B _21. (g₂ / g₁ )  exp (- E2 – E1) / kT]

 =    (A₂₁)  (g₂ / g₁ )  exp (- E2 – E1) / kT

®  I _u [B _12.- _. (g₂ / g₁ )( g₁ / g₂) B ₁₂  exp (- E2 – E1) / kT

I _u =  A _21./ B ₁₂  (g₂) e ^{(- E2 – E1) / kT}/ g₁  [1 - e ^{(- E2 – E1) / kT}]

=       A _21./ B ₁₂  (g₂ / g₁ ) [e ^{(E2 – E1) / kT}   -   1]

=   2h u ³ / c ²  [1  / e ^{hu / kT}   -   1 ]

And:   

A _21./ B ₁₂  (g₂ / g₁ ) =    2h u ³ / c ² 

Then:   A _21./ B ₁₂    =  2h u ³ / c ²  [g₂ / g₁ ]

Thus, we see that in thermodynamic equilibrium, the ratio of populations in upper and lower levels is given by the Boltzmann formula. In most solar applications of interest, the stimulated emission is negligible compared to the spontaneous emission.

     Note also that Einstein showed that the spectral line transition probabilities are related by:

A _21.=  8 p h u ³ / c ²  [B ₂₁] =  8 p h u ³ / c ²  (g₁ / g₂ ) B ₁₂    = 

6.67 x 10 ¹⁶ [g f/g2  l²   Å]

Where g is the Gaunt factor, of order unity and f is the oscillator strength. The latter generally has specific values for discrete transitions. (For the strongest spectral line from a level one in an atom one can usually use f = 1.)

The radiation density is defined:

u _u =  4 p  B _u /  c  =  8 p h u ³ / c ²  [1  / e ^{hu / kT}   -   1]

With the Planck function:

B _u  du   =  2h u ³ / c ²  [1  / e ^{hu / kT}   -   1 ] du

This is for the frequency domain, but can also be expressed in the wavelength domain:

B _l  dl   =  2 p h c ² /l⁵   [1  / e ^{hc / kl T}   -   1 ] dl

(Be careful treating the differential for  the frequency!)

du  = (- c/ l²) dl which must be used when transferring from the frequency scale Hz ^-1 to the wavelength scale

 (cm ^-1 or m^-1)

For hydrogenic atoms (Z » 1) the absorption cross-section, a _u , plays  a critical role, defined:

a _u  = 2.815 x 10 ²⁹    Z ⁴/ n ⁵ (g /u ³)

Or:

a _u  =  7.91 x 10 ¹⁶   Z ⁴/ n ⁵  (R_y / h u)³  g

(cm ² / bound electron in state n.)

Where R_y  is the modified Rydberg constant for atomic physics.  In terms of the standard Rydberg constant, R_∞ = 1.0974 × 10⁷ m⁻¹, it is:   R_y  = hc R_∞  = 13.605 eV.

When dealing with complex atoms one needs to allow for the number of electrons in the absorbing state:

a _u  =   4 p/ c  (B _ne) h u

where B _ne is the Einstein coefficient or “continuum f-value”. Thus, it may also be posed:

a _u  =  8.067 × 10^-18      (df/de) 

(cm ² / bound electron in state n.)

A useful table that will come in handy for spectral line computations is the following:

Quantum Numbers and Energies For Hydrogen Atom:

Ground state s1       n    ℓ     m ℓ       m s	Energy E1 (eV)
1     0      0        +½ 1     0      0        -½	-          - 13.6 -         - 13.6
First Excited States n    ℓ     m ℓ       m s	Energy E1 (eV)
2     0       0       +½	-          3.40
2     0       0       -½	-          3.40
2      1      1      +½	-          3.40
2      1      1       -½	-          3.40
2      1      0      +½	-          3.40
2      1      0       -½	-          3.40
2      1      1      +½	-          3.40
2       1      1      -½	-          3.40

Inspection of the table above shows two quantum states with the same energy (-13.6 eV) and eight states with (-3.40 eV).  Thus, two states are degenerate for the n=1 level and eight states are degenerate for the n=2 level.  Since g _n = 2n², then:

At the n=1 level the statistical weight is:  g ₁ = 2(1)² = 2

At the n=2 level the statistical weight is: g ₁ = 2(2)² = 8

Problems for Budding Astrophysicists:

1)Consider a gas of neutral hydrogen. Using the Boltzmann equation and the information in the table above, compute the temperature at which one will expect equal numbers of atoms in the ground state and the first excited state.

2) For the Balmer a line (called H- alpha), we know:

E3 – E2 =  - 13.6 eV ( 1/ 3 ²   -  1/ 2 ² )   = 1.88 eV

a)     From this information calculate the ratio N₂ / N₁    for T = 10 ⁴ K

b)     Obtain the specific intensity from: 

I _u  =  2h u ³ / c ²  [1/ exp (hc/lkT]

3)Calculate  the transition probability (  A ₂₁  ) you get using the Einstein equation:

 If:   A _21.=     6.67 x 10 ¹⁶ [g f/g2  l²   Å]

What possible errors might cause the values to diverge? (Take g = f » 1)

---

[1] The “statistical weight” or degeneracy is just the number of different atomic sub-states included in the state being considered.  As we saw each atomic state of angular momenta L,S leading to total angular momentum J can be split by magnetic field into 2J + 1 states. Then for all J levels of a term LS there are: 

g(L.S) = (2L + 1)(2S + 1) = S _j (2J + 1)

different M _j sub-levels possible. For a hydrogenic shell (n) there are  2n ²  sub-levels possible.

Stocks Dive - Do We Blame The Flattening Yield Curve Or Trump's "I Am Tariff Man" Jabber?

Yield curve behavior since 1977  (from T. Rowe Price Investor Bulletin)

Oldster Stock trader in a near fit on the NY stock exchange yesterday after stocks tank - when Dotard bragged: "I am Tariff Man!"

The Financial Times lead article yesterday was blunt in accounting for the major stock market selloff, traced to the yield curve dipping more than 10 basis points below its historical low since June, 2007.  As the FT report noted:

 "A swift turn in bank stocks saw Wall Street fall sharply after noon on Tuesday, while further falls for the tech names dragged the Nasdaq Composite back into correction territory. That comes against a backdrop of falling yields, as government bonds rally, and one key indicator - the yield curve - again started to signal low-growth or possibly recessionary economic conditions. "

Meanwhile, the WSJ take ('U.S. Bonds Gain As Stocks Sink', p. A1)  on yesterday's stock dive read as follows:

"U.S. government bond prices rose Tuesday, pushing the yield on 10-year Treasury notes further below 3%, as investors sought safer investments during the stock-market selloff.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell for a sixth consecutive trading session, settling at 2.921%, from 2.990% Monday. The yield has fallen to its lowest level in almost three months after reaching a seven-year high of 3.232% on Nov. 8.

Yields, which fall when bond prices rise, declined along with stock prices as investors—including pensions, individuals and mutual funds—turned to less risky assets amid unsettled markets, analysts said. The rally in bonds intensified as major stock indexes extended losses during the trading session.

The fall in stocks—which sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average down nearly 800 points—erased Monday’s gains as skepticism grew about whether the trade truce between the U.S. and China will do more than temporarily stall the escalating rhetoric and tariffs from both sides.

---   The gap between yields on the two- and 10-year Treasury note yields narrowed to 0.110 percentage point Tuesday, the smallest difference since 2007. Investors closely watch the distance between the shorter- and longer-term yields because short-term rates have exceeded long-term ones before every recession since 1975, a phenomenon known as an inverted yield curve.

What is the yield curve and why does it matter? Why does its flattening strike fear into the investor's heart?  First, let's clear the air that one large component of the stock dive yesterday was simply that investors don't trust Trump to behave in relation to the artificial "90 day truce" on tariffs he set up with China's President Xi at the G 20 summit.  They aren't buying it because most are pretty sure Dotard will find some lame excuse to trash it and go back to his 25 % promised tariffs on another $200b worth of Chinese goods.  Hell, just before stocks started tanking yesterday it was Drumpf who took to Twitter and barked:

"President Xi and I want this deal to happen. But it probably will. But if not remember I am 'Tariff Man'"

Translated for  Wall Street: "I don't give a flying fudge stick about this deal, and I am just itching for a way to quash hit and hit 'em with more tariffs."

And look, by now President Xi Jinping has to know he is dealing with a dyspeptic toddler in a stage of  severe arrested development, who's also so unstable that no genuine deal is feasible. This is on account of the very nature of the man: a two-bit, lowlife Queens real estate crook and con man grifter.  A  thug at heart, whose folks had to dispatch him to a NY military school after cops caught him using his  'designer' switchblades on alley cats.  This is the loose cannon mutt we now have as resident.

Thus, I  believe the trade truce is merely a pause in ongoing trade hostilities and the main casualties will remain the Trumpie base,  who can't seem to slaver enough at Dotard's feet.  That's the nature of the beast, or at least this beast.

As regards the flattening yield curve - that also is a big worry.  As observed in the WSJ piece (see bottom of this post) :

"The gap two- and five-year yields inverted Tuesday, following Monday’s inversion of the spread between three- and five-year yields."

As I noted in previous posts on the issue, the U.S. Treasury yield curve - the spread between 2- and 10-year Treasury bond yields- has flattened sharply this year  but has not yet "inverted" - which most investors take as a sign of a looming recession. Specifically, recessions tend to occur once the "flat" yield curve becomes "inverted" - with short term (e.g. 2 -year)  bond rates higher than long term (e.g. 10 year) rates. As a recent T. Rowe Price Investor Bulletin notes (p. 4) this condition has transpired before each of the past nine recessions dating back to 1955.  Hence, while it isn't a 100% absolute predictor, it is a significant historical marker..

The T. Rowe warning - assuming one can take it as such - is (ibid.):

"The yield curve is not flat yet ...but it could be by next March if the Fed maintains its 0.25 percent per quarter pace of rate hikes and the 10-year Treasury continues to meet resistance above the 3.0 percent level.  Starting the historical average 16-month clock from the spring of 2019 would raise the specter of a major downturn by 2020."

Interestingly, this take also conforms with the one of Matt O'Brien writing in the WaPo ('Reasons There Really  Might Be A Recession In 2020').    O'Brien tags the "two big risks" today as: 1) the rising interest rates (which ought to also include the Fed cutting back on its QE policy, and 2) the difference between the government's 10-year and 2-year borrowing costs are beginning to flash yellow.

In other words, the yield curve is flattening . In O'Brien's explanation:

"When long term rates are lower than short term ones - what's known as an inverted yield curve- it's telling us that that markets think the Federal Reserve is going to have to stop raising rates and start cutting them in the near future."

Maybe O'Brien saw ahead to the NY Federal Reserve Chief's (John Williams)  comment yesterday that he "supports further rate hikes" - which unnerved the Street.  Anyway, O'Brien goes on to write that the ''good news is this hasn't happened yet, but the bad news is that it probably won't be long before it does."   But I am not so sure. If a recession is in the offing, the Fed would also know that if it leaves the existing rate too low (say relative to what is regarded by most Fed heads as the "neutral rate" - say 2.75%)  then there would be too little latitude left to lower rates when an actual recession hits. As I believe it will before the end of 2019. Why? Because all the Trumpies' borrowing  and debt will come home to roost- not to mention the upheaval from Dotard's trade war with President Xi.

What can savvy investors do? Stay tuned and keep monitoring the financial pages for signs of the inverted yield curve.  (Also watch out if a gov't shutdown occurs, again thanks to Dotard Donnie's imbecility and belligerence.)

See also:

http://brane-space.blogspot.com/2017/11/has-stock-market-dodged-bullet-in.html

How Could The Press Not Know The Frackers Would Renege On Their Promises In Colorado?

It is now well known that  Colorado Proposition 112 was sunk in the midterm elections by nearly 200,000 votes.   In the wake a number of subsequent Denver Post letter writers wailed: "What is wrong with our citizens that they're not able to see this initiative was a GOOD thing?"   Indeed,  its adherents insisted the passing of 112 would bring long sought sanity to neighborhoods throughout the state.

This was especially after a number of disasters including the home explosion in Firestone nearly 18 months ago that killed two men. The incident was blamed on a leaky flowline from a nearby well that hadn’t been capped properly.   The frack well disposition called for in 112 was itself more than reasonable, i.e.


This is given how so many thousands of home -owners living near frack wells have had their lives overturned by noise, odors, and illness - mainly respiratory.  So what happened to sink it?

Mainly the fracker backers -  with $30 million to work with - plastered their brain washing ads all over Colorado TV stations, with the assistance of the inbred (with the Koch brothers) Colorado oil and gas industry.  It also didn't help that the Denver Post chimed in against it, in editorials, claiming "it is easy enough to oppose because though it was billed as having reasonable set backs from occupied structures, the language of the ballot proposal actually would have been an effective ban on future drilling"

To which one can only respond, 'so what?'   The state already has more than 51,000 active wells churning out their toxins, sludge and noise non -stop. How many more do they want? When is enough, enough?  Even The Denver Post, as far back as May, 2014, in a special investigative piece observed:

“There’s about one gallon of toxic liquid penetrating soil every eight minutes....drillers churn up 135 to 500 tons of dirt with every new well, some of it soaked with hydrocarbons and laced with potentially toxic minerals and salts...The overall impact of the oil and gas boom is like a death sentence for soil. It could be the next limiting component when we talk about feeding the planet and having a sustainable lifestyle- - because all the good stuff is gone and the soil is being degraded.”

Isn't that serious enough to want to curb future drilling? I would think so! Given fracking conditions have only gotten worse, what happened to the Post in the intervening years?  The question deserves an answer, and it is obvious; The Post has been bought out - as I noted in my April 18 post- by a hedge fund: Alden Global Capital.  This buyout came on the heels of circulation declines which saw the proportion of ads vastly increase as original reporting and investigation decreased.  Basically the Post, like many other U.S. news papers, media, had mutated into a propaganda arm of Neoliberal capitalism.

But what caused my eyes to pop open is how a recent Post editorial ('The Oil And Gas Industry Disappoints', Nov. 11, p. 3D) actually admitted the paper had been gamed by the frackers. We learned therein:

"One day after defeating Proposition 112 by more than 200,000 votes, the industry tossed all of that goodwill in the trash with a proposal from one operator to drill under Standley Lake and nearby open space in Westminster." 

 Oh, the horror! Who would have thought? Well a lot of us did suspect, so why not the Post's editors? Why play like total naifs now?  Would the Post have taken back its dismissal of 112 had it known of the frackers' bad faith? Hell no! They even generated the same arguments in this editorial as the previous one (e.g. "an effective ban on future drilling" blah blah), as well as adding this baloney, in the wake of the Dems taking both state houses and the  governorship:

"We hope the Democrats show restraint that recognizes the important role this industry plays in our economy and in powering our homes"

In fact, the fracked shale oil plays little or no role in "powering our homes". That goes to light sweet (e.g. Brent) crude, shipped in from outside. The fracked crap - kerogen - we produce, is shipped elsewhere, including to China.   As Robert Heinberg explained in his book, Snake Oil : How fracking's False Promise Imperils Our Future:

"Kerogen is not oil. It is better thought of as an oil precursor that was insufficiently cooked by geologic processes. If we want to turn it into oil, we have to finish the process nature started: that involves heating the kerogen to a high temperature for a long time. And that in turn takes energy- lots of it, whether supplied by hydroelectricity, nuclear power plants, natural gas, or the kerogen itself. "

Being an "oil precursor" means it's much more volatile and doesn't take much to explode, say from a collision or derailment.  

 So we take the Post's post game caterwauling with a grain of salt.

See also:

http://www.resource-media.org/drilling-vs-the-american-dream-fracking-impacts-on-property-rights-and-home-values/

Republican Poltroons In Wisconsin Seeking to Kneecap Dems Need To Be Made To Pay

As a born and bred Wisconsinite (Milwaukee) , it upsets and outrages me no end to see how the GOP swine in that state are such sore- ass losers they're now trying to repeal the voters' will. In case you haven't heard,  GOP state lawmakers worked into the night Monday to advance Republican legislation to scale back the power of the incoming Democratic governor and attorney general, limit early voting and change an election date to help a conservative justice keep his seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court.

There is no way to put it other than outright blatant,  Banana Republic-style tyranny - which needs to be stopped in its tracks.  Because this is nothing less than a transparent effort to repeal the results of the midterm elections which didn't go the way the Wisconsin 'pukes wanted. Well, hell, the Colorado 'pukes didn't see things work out either, as the state Dems got a trifecta - snaring the governorship, AG, as well as both state houses. But you don't see Colorado Republicans (with a majority in the state Senate) trying to mash things up for incoming Dems  in a lame duck session. Displaying sore loser vitriol in a sick, scorched earth and sour grapes reaction.

But see, in Wisconsin it's a different animal given how much the state is gerrymandered by the same Reeptard swine.  As reported last night on Maddow, the Dems in the Nov. 6th midterms won the popular vote for the Wisconsin State Assembly by 53% to 45% and yet - get this - because of systemic gerrymandering the Reeps still kept 64 % of the seats in the Assembly to the Ds 36%.   That means that come January,  despite the colossal win for Wisconsin Dems, the Reeptards will still control the state legislature.

And now the bastard filth want to consolidate their power even more by limiting the incoming  Governor's power as well as making the new Dem attorney general report to THEM instead of to the Governor. No, folks, you cannot make this shit up. This is happening in plain daylight in Wisconsin.  All this while these execrable maggots also amp up voter suppression, by dialing back early voting. They've since seen they lost big for major state offices because so many citizens early voted - and they want to stop that. But see, that's the only way the Reeps can win, by cheating, by denying votes.  (This change, mind you, would also cost the state nearly $7 million more tax dollars to implement.)

Bottom line: the Reep swine are doing everything they can in this lame duck session, at any cost, to strip power from the Democrats -  who just beat the holy Hell out of them in the Nov. 6th election. They want to make sure the Dems don't gain any more ground and get any more power - if the Reeps can keep them from getting it.  As Maddow put it, "this is the new Republican playbook" - or in Janice's parlance, "the vermin playbook".

But hold strain! This shit is going down in other GOP loss states too! In Michigan now, Republican lawmakers are attempting similar efforts to those in Wisconsin before new officeholders are sworn in.  Again, we behold the same sore loser temperament as the 'pukes try to rein in power for the newcomers so they can't have the leverage the 'pukes had in their term. It just shows the degenerate nature of these imps that they could stoop so low to resort to anti-democratic perfidy to get their way, when the elections - the voice of the voters- kicked their sorry scum asses out.

Drafted in secret, the  GOP Wisconsin legislation was rushed to the Joint Finance Committee on Monday for its only public hearing. Legislators and outraged citizens scrambled all weekend to parse more than forty serious changes to state law embedded in the 141 pages of text. The legislature is expected to vote on the bills today and then signed by ex- Gov. Simpleton Scott Walker.

Among the numerous provisions included in the legislation are ones that would limit early voting to two weeks; give Republicans more control of the state agency overseeing job creation; curtail the governor's ability to write state rules and adjust public benefits programs; and allow lawmakers to replace the attorney general with private attorneys at taxpayer expense.

Look,  the ratfucker Wisconsin GOOPs  have made no effort to hide their intentions: to continue their hold on state government, even at the expense of core democratic principles like respect for the separation of powers and majority rule. The  Repuke legislation would nullify the decision-making of Wisconsin’s voters, who rejected Republicans for every statewide office in the November midterms.  This means it is time for political warfare, and strenuous, aggressive protests - not just phone calls and emails (more on this later).

In written testimony, Democratic Gov.-elect Tony Evers asked Republican lawmakers to abandon their lame-duck session instead of trying to “override and ignore what the people of Wisconsin asked for this November.”   As Gov-elect Evers put it:

"This is rancor and politics as usual,”    Adding:

“It flies in the face of democratic institutions and the checks and balances that are intended to prevent power-hungry politicians from clinging to control when they do not get their way.”

Bingo!

At a stop in Wausau yesterday, Mr. Evers said he would consider litigation should any of the measures become law, telling reporters:

"We will actively be looking at either to litigate or do whatever else in our power to make sure the people of Wisconsin are represented at the table," .

What's else can be done?  The citizens of Wisconsin and Michigan need to summon their voices, passion and resources and pound the offending Repukes into submission. Mount serious major protests in every venue but especially the state capitols of Madison (WI) and Lansing.   In addition, citizens of both states need to take their protests directly to the front of GOP goons' homes - make their presence (and outrage)  known  - loud and clear!  Go to the state directory, consult their names and addresses, and mount targeted protests accordingly.  The top two GOP vermin to single out? Robin Vos -  Republican Speaker of the Wisconsin State Assembly-   and Scott Fitzgerald, the Senate majority leader.

These repigs have to be made to understand they can't hide in their homes as they mount such treachery to democratic values.  Flooding GOP lawmakers with calls and emails is a good first step - but phone calls and emails can always  be ignored- especially by entitled tyrant swine.. Protesters with signs screaming right in front of their homes can't.  This is the time to bear down!

This is clearly an attempt to undermine our democracy in Wisconsin," said Josh Kaul, the Democrat who beat Republican Attorney General Brad Schimel and would lose many of his powers in the legislation.  So what to do? Well, if the Reeps get away with their perfidy the new Dem AG will have to report to them. Plus, slimeball Walker swears he will appoint Schimel as a Waukesha County judge before the two complete their terms.

Never mind. Wisconsin citizens, if I know them as I believe I do, will get out and manifest their outrage in open defiance and mass protests - carried out in the state capitol, in Milwaukee and Green Bay,  and in front of the homes of these degenerates who have the gall to call themselves "lawmakers".

Wifey doesn't agree that encouraging mass protests, including in front of the offenders' homes, is the way to go. ("It will backfire!")  But I say it is,  especially when the Reep maggots disrespect the voters' will to such a foul extent. They have to get it through their thick heads that elections have consequences - and if they won't admit or concede them- the citizens (of both Wisconsin and Michigan) will have to do it for them.

Given, however, the main votes have been taken, the only hope going forward is for Evers and company to file lawsuits, and the Wisconsin and Michigan voters to turf these reprobates out when the first chance arises.

Enough said!

See also:

'They’re Throwing A Fit': The GOP’s Desperate Power Grabs Show How Weak The Party Has Become

Why I'm Tuning Out All The Hullaballo (& Hagiography) On George H. W. Bush (Guest Blog Post)

This post by Will Bunch at smirkingchimp.com, says it all:


      

Will Bunch

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George H.W. Bush

George H.W. Bush Was A Family Man And War Hero Who Gave America Its Horribly Destructive Politics

Excerpt:

There's an old maxim that funerals are not for the dead but for the living. If so, what are we to make of the nationally televised, days-long orgies of misty, watercolor memories from Beltway-insider politicos and elite journalists that erupt whenever a prominent national leader passes away?

True, nostalgia sells because it's must-see TV for the older-skewing audience addicted to cable news, but in a pundit-driven world where spin doesn't stop at the grave, the life of the recently departed is often reconfigured — if not starkly reinvented — to fit the politics of the living.

That will never be more true than this week, as Friday's death of the 41st president, George Herbert Walker Bush, at age 94, will be wielded like a club by Washington insiders to drive home the contrast between his post-World War II-era of country-clubbish, Cold-War-consensus politics and the go-it-alone crude divisiveness of the current occupant of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue — not to mention the last era when (some of) his fellow Republicans didn't oppose popular stuff like balanced budgets or clean air.

See also:

George H.W. Bush Empowered Atrocity Abroad and Fascists at Home

by William Rivers Pitt | December 5, 2018 - 8:11am | permalink

 

 

And:

read more | Sam Pizzigati's blog | login or register to post comments | 166 reads

Barry Lando

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George H.W. Bush | Iraq

Poppy Lit the Fire: Bush and Iraq

Colorado & The Mountain West - The Next Firestorm States?

"Tropical regions with one day of severe humid heat now can expect 100 to 150 days by 2070, if current greenhouse gas emissions continue.  World population of 8.6 billion is forecast as 8.6 billion in 2030, 9.8 billion in 2050 and 11.2 billion in 2100...in a world shrinking for human use, and more of it uninhabitable, unproductive and submerged."   - Bert Melcher, letter to the Denver Post, Dec. 2, p. 3D)

The apocalyptic scenes in the final '60 Minutes' segment last night were hair raising and outright terrifying - and that's for people watching them from afar. I refer to the horrendous Camp fire that tore through northern California leaving over 173,000 acres barren and full of ash and detritus, with recovery workers having to sift carefully through incinerated remains in search of human bones, teeth.  If they were found, they were carefully placed into paper bags then carried back to a makeshift lab for DNA analysis.   Using this technique, 41 bodies-identities were recovered from the ashes.

The scenes of the fire itself, taken by a fire brigade team, could have been out of Dante's Inferno. Flames reached everywhere and in no time - making escape almost impossible. The head of the Fire rescue team described flames two hundred feet in height - that's as tall as a twenty story building-- and "miles in width" - burning up the equivalent of "one football field a second".  A computer simulation was then rendered to show how fast it spread on a scale topographical map. The question arose as to whether this conflagration was unusual or other states could also experience it.

Ironically, barely two hours earlier I'd just finished reading an unnerving article ('Climate Change Clobbering Colorado And Western U.S.) in Sunday's Denver Post (p. 1B). The map accompanying the article (see below) made it clear western Colorado has had at least the same increase in temperature as the torched areas of California, and also many of the same conditions, especially prolonged drought, many dead or dying trees and people who are building homes close to them.


Basically, the changes in temperature as well as increased drought -  compared to California-   shows all these states are also on track for raging firestorms.  The 300 scientists who produced the National Climate Assessment, including several based along Colorado’s Front Range, point to recent ruinous climate events as evidence that global warming is affecting the United States as never before and threatening to disrupt lives coast to coast. Those impacts are pretty much locked in until 2050 due to past emissions that raised atmospheric carbon dioxide levels to 410 parts per million. What happens after 2050 depends on how fast humans reduce air pollution from burning fossil fuels, clearing forests and other human activities that further load the atmosphere with heat-trapping greenhouse gases.

I already made one unpopular forecast in a previous blog post, to wit,  that humans needed to get 500 million autos out of circulation in the next few years to have any chance at all limiting a greenhouse hell. Will that happen? How can it when so many of our species see the motorcar as their primary ticket to "independence".  Even wifey admitted she'd shudder to think of doing without her Buick Encore - even for a day.  But what about it and the hundreds of millions of cars like it pumping the atmosphere full of CO2?   "Do not go there!  We are not having this conversation!"' she retorted.  Fine, then we all just agree to do or say nothing and let any 'outsiders' bear the burdens, while the planet slowly roasts and us with it.

Look, folks, no one said this was going to be easy.  And if no one is the first to act, then no one else will do so.  We could as well become like slowly boiling frogs.  According to Brad Udall, Colorado State University climate scientist quoted in the Post:

“The message just gets louder and clearer as the years go by. We have got to deal with this problem. We’ve had event after event after event over the last 10 years with climate change written all over them. We have another 80 years ahead of us. And with the current projected air emissions, the future is bleak,.. We need a sane and safe way to wean ourselves off fossil fuels over the next few decades, doing the least harm we can do to our economy but doing right by the environment. … We have to cease all greenhouse gas emissions as soon as practical.”

Jared Polis, our state's newly elected governor, added:

"States must lead the way, because the federal government has dropped the ball.  My administration will be looking carefully at various options to not only deal with the potential short- and long-term impacts from climate change, but how to do our part to combat the root causes of global climate change through bold, proactive policies to transition to renewable energy.  Climate change is a blinking red light, and we have to act now or our children will end up suffering the consequences of inaction.”

What gives in the Mountain  West?

Well, bigger wildfires and a lengthening “fire season” for starters.   These have combined with population growth and reckless home building in burn zones, making destruction of people and property more likely.  For example, as seen in California’s recent devastating wildfires and fierce burns in Colorado this summer. Additionally, the record-low mountain snow in southern Colorado and higher temperatures has accelerated a climate shift toward aridity that favors frequent ignition.

Already, since we moved to this state in 2000, we've been affected by no less than three monster wildfires, including the Waldo Canyon fire, and the Black Forest fire, see e.g.

http://brane-space.blogspot.com/2013/06/aaarghh-smoke-fills-air-again-more-wild.html

No surprise then the cumulative forest area burned is increasing rapidly as the graph below shows:


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Federal wildfire analysts have calculated that the 24 million acres burned across the West between 1984 and 2015 was twice what would have burned had global warming caused by humans not happened.  Fires incepted by climate change worsen the problem of more people building homes in forests and flammable former agricultural fields. Colorado state forester Mike Lester said in an interview with the Post that house-building and other urbanization in burn zones has left more than half of Colorado’s population — 2.9 million people — threatened by wildfire. That’s up nearly 50 percent from 2 million in 2012. State task force recommendations to limit construction in what insurers designate as the “wildland urban interface” mostly have been ignored by state lawmakers and property developers.

The more people moving into burn zones, the harder it becomes to restore forest health because safety margins are narrower.   Forests need fires to regenerate, to a point, but totally suppressing fires sets up bigger fires in the future..But this shows again that a large part of the problem is too many people moving into this state, which has too little available land for them to live. (And the situation isn't helped by all the fracking that's going on, and no greater offsets allowed from homes after Prop 112 was defeated. See my post tomorrow).

Global warming is disrupting water flows, too, complicating the water supply necessary to allow more population growth in Colorado and other parts of the arid West. Rocky Mountain snowpack dipped to record low levels this year. Climate scientists have documented lower flows in rivers, including the Colorado River that farmers and urban developers tap as the main source serving 40 million people across seven states. Looming shortages already compelled state officials to prepare emergency plans for curbing use of water from the government-built reservoirs and irrigation systems that enabled settlement of the West.  And there is more and more serious consideration of adopting "toilet to tap" water recycling systems.

Beyond water conservation, some cities are pushing for construction of new and expanded reservoirs to try to store more water when rain falls.

Higher temperatures alone  have forced lifestyle changes, keeping people and pet animals indoors. Since we moved here from Maryland, the number of 90-plus degree days have increased from barely ten to more than twenty-five.  The increasing temperatures even forced us to install a central air conditioning system 5 years ago - something we didn't want to do because of the adverse impact on global warming. Up to then we'd been using a swamp (or evaporative) cooler which is much more eco-friendly.  But as daytime temperatures topped 90 degrees for consecutive days the system simply wasn't able to handle the thermal burden.  All you'd end up getting is hot air blowing out the vents.

Besides, climate scientists say the rising heat hits the elderly hardest, along with children and low-income people who cannot afford to run air-conditioning systems. Still, I already noted two posts ago  how a/c units are forecast to increase to 3.5 b or more by 2050 placing inordinate demands on power grids.  So apart from keeping older farts and kids from croaking of heat stroke, this is not necessarily a good thing.  Increasing demand for artificially cooled air dramatically pumps more CO2 into the atmosphere even as it strains electricity grids, leading to power outages.  Indeed,  at the cusp of the runaway greenhouse effect - say by 2060-  one can argue the various power grids around the world will not be able to keep up with demand - not with 40-50 day heat waves at 110-115 F temperatures.

 Add to all that the fact  the conditions are favorable for mosquitoes and ticks to spread more sickness, including the Lyme disease, and you have a vastly higher misery index. One of the newer additions is the  Asian Longhorned tick, i.e.


 that can infect humans with a form of hemorraghic fever.  The critters are asexual so one of them can lay as many as 2,000 eggs at a time without ever mating.

The Zika virus is  also spreading northward.

According to Gregg Garfin, a University of Arizona climatologist who co-authored parts of the national assessment focused on Colorado and southwestern states:

"The droughts, fires, threats to water supplies and heat waves — those things are all amplified and exacerbated by these increases in temperature,   Fossil fuel extraction is probably really good for the economy in the short term, If you look at the long term, then we have to take into account the effects of heat-trapping gases warming up the lower atmosphere. It is important to see the connections."

Will we see the connections, or will we wait until it's too late to do anything? My bet is the latter.  So long as so many view their automobiles and "independence" more important than the planet's capacity to support present day humans - and future generations - we are for the high jump.  Even Janice agrees with that but it will not be her car put on the sidelines first.