Showing posts with label Joseph Berardino. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Joseph Berardino. Show all posts

Wednesday, March 15, 2017

"Fearless Girl": An Empty Symbol For Misplacing Girls' Aspirations

The "Fearless Girl" statue faces down Wall Street's famous Charging Bull.

"That we Americans allot the richest rewards of our economy to speculators, is a question of mores; that we allow one-sixth of our fellow citizens to be ill-housed, ill-clad, and ill-nourished is a question of morals. That we shrink from our problems instead of attacking them with eagerness, generosity and hope is a question of morale. The questions are obviously interrelated." - George P. Brockway, in 'The End of Economic Man - Principles of Any Future Economics', p. 86.

The statue 'Fearless Girl' became an instant icon of women's liberation and strength just hours after  it had been placed in front of the famous Wall Street bull in celebration of International Women's Day. The statue is meant to honor women, specifically those in finance who are "historically forgotten". The problem is that high finance, not only in the U.S. but around the world, has made a veritable mess not only of women's lives but men's as well, namely on "Main Street" and for Main Street priorities. Hence, the statue is really an empty symbol paying homage to a system that has more exploited than helped average Americans.  It may make some little girls feel "fearless" for a bit - staring down that bull  - but in the end Wall Street will have its way and grind everyone under unless it is tamed, regulated.

With the Trumpies ready to water down the fiduciary rule - the one that requires financial advisors to disclose any conflicts of interest - things are not going to change for the better any time soon.

It was George P. Brockway in his 'End of Economic Man' who noted that  ultimately our choice as a society is to reward either markets and speculators or the commonweal based on "Main Street". So far, we've made mainly the wrong choices and allowed the market to dictate our future and quality of life.  This has been from its domination over our health care via shares purchased for various insurance companies, to its yen to replace workers with automation to jack up share price for the benefit of speculators.

And let's also be aware that it is Wall Street that has been pushing incessantly for the privatization of Social Security. One big reason the Street desperately wants Social Security monies in its insatiable maw is that it it's pretty well exhausted the largest (boomer) 401k market - and they'll soon be cashing out, along with their IRAs.

Nowhere is the distortion more evident than in the 401k and investments made there, which puts the ordinary person at great financial risk.  Perhaps the best financial education I ever received, was thanks to William Wolman and Anne Colamosca in their book 'The Great 401k Hoax', (2002), which offered the best advice for recognizing real returns as opposed to the bubble variety. With their solid arguments they showed, for any given fiscal environment, what a realist investor could expect to make. As they noted, one needed to look carefully at the percentage profits returned by X, Y or Z company. If it is averaging 1.3% a year, then that is the real return you can expect.  The stock hawkers bejabber of 10% annualized returns, or more often, 7 percent, is purely designed to lure the unwary into stock investment.

The authors' arguments were further reinforced about 6 years later in a Financial Times article (‘A Metaphorical Proposal’, Mar. 13, p. 11A, 2008) by Michael Skapinker. He cited remarks by Joseph Berardino – chief exec of Arthur Andersen- who noted how the existing reporting system “fails to communicate essential information about the real risks facing companies” to the small investor.  If the small investor doesn't know these risks, how can he make judicious choices? He can't.

Skapinker quoted Berardino as noting how accountants can only issue generic ‘pass’ or ‘fail’ judgments on companies – but never disclose the red ink being bled by a company that’s been passed. (What's referred to as a “bleeding edge” company wherein auditors are actually resigning). As the author notes, to do so would precipitate a collapse in share prices. Duh! (But, tough luck!)


Wolman and Colamosca, meanwhile, paid great attention to how the 401k has been abused and misused, usually by financial shysters - often in workers' companies, but also on the "Street".  Their primary beef? The 401k was never designed as an "investment" vehicle but as a purely savings medium! It was meant to salt your money away in safe, low risk abodes - while being matched by your company to some degree- and all the while not having to pay taxes on it. But almost from the start of the plan, named after the section in the tax code, people -workers were driven to put money into stocks, mainly equities, and other high risk instruments.  Little wonder, that small fry investors in 401ks have been fried and refried, over and over again.

They will be again, as sure as the Sun rises in the morning, once the new stock bubble bursts, as it will. As George Brockway has observed: the purpose of every Bull market is to take back all the gains made, mainly from small investors.  So, why would any little girl want to be part of this system? Why not instead be inspired to be a "fearless climate scientist" or astrophysicist?

As Cara Sheffler of The Guardian recently put it:

"State Street Global Advisors, the investment firm behind the ‘Fearless Girl’ sculpture temporarily placed in front of the famous Wall Street bull, pulled off a formidable marketing coup when they placed the statue there on Women’s Day. But let’s not kid ourselves into thinking that it is a brave feminist statement. It is not.  Fearless Girl doesn’t have to worry about affording college – she’s owned by an investment firm! No one can shut her out of the economy, as so many of her flesh-and-blood sisters have been: she owns Manhattan real estate. In the financial district, no less! No wonder she’s so fearless."

Indeed. And another reason she's so fearless is that she isn't subject to Pareto economics the way the rest of us mortals are. (Nor would any females ensconced in the towers of high finance.)  So it is a fact that with few exceptions, modern economics has dictated we are all subject to the Pareto utility function, to Pareto efficiency:














Basically, we are graphing "utils" or nominal units of "utility" on the vertical axis, vs. value of dollars used or consumed along the horizontal. The curves are displayed for two populations, one "rich" (say earning in the top 1% or $340,000/yr.) and the other "poor" (earning about $14,000/yr.). The key aspect to note is the width corresponding to the "delta x" portion of the gradient (delta U over delta x) which translates into the net dollar's worth for each population. As readers can see from inspection, the width of $1 for the rich is significantly longer than the one for the poor. This translates into the argument that the buck is worth more to the rich man, and hence, any transfer from the rich to the poor hurts the rich more than it helps the poor .

Thus, by Pareto's original example (in quotes): Allowing the wolf in the wolf-sheep combo to EAT the sheep expresses less overall "hurt" or pain on it than permitting the sheep to remain unscathed, thereby merrily prancing away eating its grass while the poor wolf starves. "The wolf" let us again bear in mind in concert with George Brockway's thesis, is the Wall Street paradigm.

The Pareto utility also explains why former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan went on record in an appearance before congress (in 2003) to assert that "Social Security benefits need to be cut to pay for Bush’s tax cuts."  What on Earth was the man thinking? Well, he's thinking on the basis of Pareto efficiency!    Social Security payments, especially with COLAs, do everything the Fed Chairman didn’t want. They pour more money into the economy, but not via productive labor or market indices, returns. People receive their checks merely by existing and breathing day to day, and having paid into the system with FICA deductions. Even then, they receive far more in benefits than actually paid in, making a total mess of "utils" earned.

"The Street" isn't happy with this set up because it is cut out of the Social security income stream especially via potential juicy fees, commissions.  For example, if these expenses and commissions total 3.5% per annum, half of a 7% return is wiped out, leaving our exuberant investor with only 3.5% takings. If the particular privatized account is "churned" - meaning subjected to lots of internal exchanges and activity - that fee/commission factor could easily become 8%, 10% or more. The person left with virtually NO gain. In a down market this would amount to a nightmare.

What about health care? How does it work under a Pareto system? The clue was revealed by Academic Economist (and former Reagan Advisor) Martin Feldstein, after being awarded the presidency of the American Economic Association in 2004. A large part of his address was devoted to the issue of health insurance. Feldstein made the case that health care is in trouble in this country because deductibles and co-payments are too low, and as a result people (mainly the non-wealthy partially subsidized by health insurance) over use the system and go to the doctor too many times.


Hence, it more redounds to the benefit of shareholders (of stocks in health insurance companies) if a sick person is paid something like $134 not to see a doctor, given each doctor visit (then) costs on average $150. In like manner, the Repuke health plan is designed to benefit stock shareholders by containing and minimizing care rather than expanding it. Hence, the $800 b in cuts to Medicaid by 2020 will achieve Ryan's Randian goal of capping health costs as it "de-federalizes" care.


So why erect a "fearless girl" statue facing the notorious Wall Street Bull and encourage women and girls to entertain becoming fellow shysters to the sharks already there? It makes little sense, not that many of them would anyway. (Hopefully!) I can't imagine thousands of women leaving noble professions like nursing or teaching to become cutthroat shylocks on Maul Street. Or, perhaps I have too much of a 60s perspective.

Cara Sheffler again:

"Having it all” for most women won’t mean being Marissa Mayer or Sheryl Sandberg. The women’s movement, the marches for equality, are not about making every little girl a CEO, but rather about rendering the national dialogue more inclusive. Ironically, womensmarch.com has launched a campaign to convince Americans to divest from banks that support the Dakota pipeline.

Not every person has the option to do so, but women need to divest at a deeper level: we need to divest our values of social equality from Wall Street success. We need to understand that economic justice is not the plot of Working Girl; economic empowerment is not taking a helicopter to East Hampton every weekend during the summer season."

Exactly so. But how many  will process that?  How many women and girls mesmerized by that statue facing the bull will grasp that it likely has little to do with establishing economic justice? How many others will realize that just becoming a broker on Wall Street, where you might try to make a mint or earn vacays to the Hamptons, is not exactly economic empowerment for the many?


Most spot on, she writes:

"Feminism is about human decency, not molding young girls in the image of a banking industry that bets against us, shorts us, and then receives government bailout money.

It’s an industry that always has enough in its coffers to bet on both horses. America has companies on both coasts – on Wall Street and in Silicon Valley – that need to be shamed into civic responsibility, yet demand equal protection before the law. They restructure, outsource and demand tax breaks as job creators. Yet the cities in which they are located squeeze out the middle class and become bedroom communities for their very wealthy employees and clients. "

I could not have put it better, and Ms. Sheffler hits several notes to do with the Pareto model that are important, especially shorting the public then getting bailouts and the gentrification aspect noted at the end. Lastly:

"We need women who will realize new possibilities for companies to work toward the common good, to use capitalism to extend the promises of our founding documents to all, rather than serving as a pernicious, perfectly legal tool of oppression. We need female lawmakers to do that, too.

We need to remember these ladies, and we need symbols that will help us to do so. Some, of course, interpret a little girl staring down the mean, old bull of Wall Street as doing precisely that. But it’s really hard to take on Wall Street when you’re funded by Wall Street. That’s something Fearless Girl is sure to find out ."


Again, why not more inspiration for little girls to become scientists?  There was a lame effort back in 2012 called “Science: It’s a Girl Thing!” . The letter I in “science,”  once one accesses the site,  is a tube of lipstick.   The defense for this vacuous nonsense? Máire Geoghegan-Quinn of the European Commission explained that the campaign was trying to “overturn clichés and show women and girls (and boys too!) that science is not about old men in white coats.”    But that is not the way to do it.

Meanwhile, spokesman Michael Jennings added that the clip was “intended to catch the attention of the target audience – 13-to-17-year-old girls,” in a “fun, catchy” attempt to “speak their language to get their attention.”

Errrr.......you really want to know the best way to get their attention? You detach them from their ipads, iphones, cell phones, and Facebook obsessions then let some intellectual light in. You try to stimulate the radiance of that "light" by encouraging independent inquiry. You don't feed their culturally-biased fantasies with superficial baloney and bunkum.

Nature editor Helen Pearson called it “packed with painful patronizing cliché,” while Victoria Herridge, a paleontologist at Britain’s Natural History Museum, declared it “beyond parody… all the things we worry about with gender stereotyping and body image these days.” Meanwhile, University College London social psychologist Petra Boynton succinctly asked, “For the love of all things holy, what is this crap?”

What is it indeed? Basically, as most of us see it, a case of the "tail wagging the dog". The demeaning, superficial and lowest common denominator culture attempting to entice young females into the rarefied realm of rigorous science....by appealing to lowest common denominator social or personal appearance obsessions.

To me, the "fearless girl" attempt to get more girls into Wall Street finance is no different.  What we need is not more traders,  brokers or hedge funders ensconced on Wall Street but a lot more female scientists, and physicians. Especially with the looming shortage of the latter. And the way to encourage them isn't with tubes of lipstick and vacuous 'fun' themes but getting them excited with the subjects by inspired teaching, or well thought out appeals to girls' intelligence.

Above all, as George Brockway argued in his book, we need to restore the balance between Main Street and Wall Street, not distort it further.


Friday, August 19, 2016

Do Americans Really Deserve The Mockery of the Money Men For Avoiding Stocks?

















In a recent issue of MONEY magazine (September, p. 16) millennials and other demographics  were raked over the coals for their aversion to the stock market, say keeping their savings in cash instead of the stock market. The piece noted:

"Across all age groups only 16 percent said the stock market was the best place to keep money long term, despite its higher returns."

The short article goes on to single out millennials especially given 32 percent of them say cash is a superior investment to stocks.  Then adds: "If you had invested $10,000 in the Vanguard 500 stock index 10 years ago you'd have $20, 940 today."

But comments like these are easy to make with 20-20 hindsight and not knowing what events may lie ahead.  For example, what happens if a guy has been investing for some 25 years and just as he retires and needs that money  - which hitherto had been on paper- the market craps out? Well, depending on how severe the downturn he may be out of luck and have to live very frugally - even if not going back to work to try to recoup his losses. The wise guys at MONEY never tell you that part.

Or other aspect of the investment game.

Let's take the case of new investors rushing into Company "XYZ" which goes public and issues 10 million shares of stock to 2 million people, for $50 a share. The market capitalization here is therefore $500 million. This total capitalization is what determines payouts in the end. Say, for example, the original stock share plummets after ten years to 50 cents a share. The market capitalization has now decreased a factor of 100 ($50/ $0.5 = 100) to $5 million. If there are no 10 million investors, the share price can be no more than 50 cents a share and that is the maximal cashout (redemption) amount. Thus if all ten million stock holders cash out at once they will (theoretically) get 50 cents a share.

But since stock managers do demand  expenses, commissions, etc. the actual payout may be a lot less. Thus, what theoretically might look like 50 cents per share on paper, for an actual mass redemption, will really end up as probably only ten cents per share.  Think this is a nutso example? I have news for you! Back in 2011 according to The Financial Times yesterday, Marley Coffee had a share valuation of $6.50 (each). Two days ago it was down to 1 cent.

While all this is dreary news for stock pumpers, we haven't even gotten to taxes yet. Most people are abysmally ignorant in terms of the returns after taxes. In fact, given recent high share prices as indicated by the price to earnings (or P/E ) ratios,  a typical stock fund investor must wait an average of 28 years to double his profits, with taxes and expenses taken into account.

How badly do taxes eat up returns? Stock guru  John C. Bogle once provided an estimate ('Fund Fees Are Beyond Excessive', Mutual Funds, 10/ 98, p. 80: "In a normal environment, stocks give 10% nominal annual returns, but after incomes taxes, and after inflation, investors might get real returns of 5%. "   And we haven't even factored in commissions, other expenses yet!

A Stanford University study- based on the median return of 62 mutual funds- showed that $1 invested in 1962 would have grown to $21.89 by 1992, on a pre-tax basis. The study disclosed that the $1 would have grown to only $9.87 on an after-tax basis. And the investor would have had to come up with $12.02 to pay the taxes.   By contrast the study showed that a “conservative” investor who put assets into a U.S. Savings Bond in 1962, had every $1 become $10.93 by 1992.

Of course in today's low yield, zero interest rate (effectively) environment, most finance mavens such as run MONEY will regard anyone who goes for savings bonds today a dunderhead. But are they really?

Let us recognize that the market is already in asset bubble territory. Arch-forecaster Nate Silver, in his book, The Signal and the Noise- Why So Many Predictions Fail But Some Don’t  warns (p. 347):

"Of the eight times in which the S&P 500 has increased at a rate much faster than its historical average over a 5-year period , five cases were followed by a severe and notorious crash, such as the Great Depression and the Black Monday crash of 1987”.

Interestingly, two of the largest stock market dives have followed two of the biggest bubbles: the first of 37.85 percent and on the heels of the bubble that formed from Jan. 14, 2000 to Oct. 9, 2002, and the second of 58.78 percent that formed (mainly due to the housing bubble) from Oct. 9, 2007 to March 9, 2009.

Another warning alarm is traced to higher share prices arising from company stock buybacks, which really amounts to a form of liquidation (which I will elaborate on soon). WHY would a company need to buy back its own stock to create an artificial rise in share price if the company is genuinely doing well? It makes no sense. If a sound going to use any extra money for anything it ought to be for paying dividends, not stock buybacks!

But stock buybacks have been "going through the roof" lately.  A recent NY Times piece ('The Buyback Illusion.', Aug. 14, Business, p. 1) noted they are more often "a way for executives to make a company's earnings per share look better because the purchases reduce the amount of stock it has outstanding"  Also, "when per share earnings are a sizable component of executive pay the motivation to do buybacks only increases."  The problem is that ultimately this game amounts to a "liquidation program". In the scheme of reinvestment one has buyback in which a "shrunken pie is divided among fewer people" and actual reinvestment which "grows a bigger pie" via affirmative moves that benefit Main Street not just Wall Street..

Why aren't the little guys more aware of how they're being shafted? Maybe for the same reason, as former trader Michael Lewis has observed ('Flash Boys') , they're not paying attention to how flash trading is ripping them off via "millisecond" advantage and thereby gaining pennies on the dollar with each trade made. They essentially gain those pennies (which add up to billions over time) by getting shares redeemed before you can via that slight micro-time advantage.

Readers may recall high frequency trading (HFT) first came to light in the May 6, 2010  “flash crash” of over 500 points. This event brutally demonstrated the perils of so –called “flash trading”. Then we first learned of the high speed computers which use special algorithms to detect large buy and sell orders then adjust their trades to take advantage. Since the high speed computers can act in nanoseconds( to either buy or sell) with the flash information, they inevitably get the better of the more conventional (slower) investors. The “flash crash” likely occurred because a number of flash computers processed information too quickly or inaccurately inciting a mass sell off.

But we're still not done in terms of running the numbers of potential stock or mutual fund losses. To get down to cases, a stock – or mutual fund- that drops in share price from $20 to $10 has suffered a 50% loss. But for that $10 stock or fund share price to return to $20 it must gain 100%, or double. This may take not just two or three years, but more than TWENTY!

Many people who risk money in the markets do not  know that if a share of anything goes down by 20%, it requires an advance of 25% to get back just to the breakeven point. If the value of a share drops 40 percent (as has occurred with some recent mutual fund hits since 2013), you'd need a 66.7 % advance to break even. If the share drops 50% - as already noted- a 100% gain must be registered to return to ‘break-even’ (i.e. you’re not losing more than what you already paid).

Here's the deal: I don't care what your returns or share prices show on paper. That is just phantom money.  Phantom money is not real, spendable money until it is redeemed.  Until then you can't build a secure income stream around it because it's variable. - from day to day and week to week as the markets gyrate over every little thing.  The problem is that the odds of getting a clean redemption, i.e.maxing out your returns just when you want them, are less than 1/2 day out of 365  (or about 1.3 in 1,000)  according to the author of 'Surviving the Coming Mutual Fund Crisis'.   He notes that only 5 % of mutual fund holders manage to redeem their shares in time to reap maximal returns.

Michael Lewis, author of The Big Short, has noted the stock market  is "built on quicksand, and people who invest in stocks are not paying serious attention to the underlying fundamentals."  Instead they're being mesmerized by flickering numbers on crawl screens, and carried away by temporarily inflated share prices and think this will net them compile a hearty retirement nest egg.

Lastly, one of the most enlightening articles that ever appeared in The Wall Street Journal, had to be from Nov. 27, 2003, page D1, 'A Harsh Truth: Most of Your Investments Won't Make Money- Even in the Long Term.

That was the precise and exact header from the article, a copy of which I preserved.

The article noted what I have numerous times, that taxes (capital gains), fees, commissions and other expenses will essentially eat up any gains from most investments. And that is in a GOOD YEAR! Over time, even a long haul, the average gains are barely over 2% when taxes and expenses have been deducted.


Are the millennials dummies then for avoiding the stock market? Maybe not as much as the mavens at MONEY magazine believe. Of course, when I use the term "cash" I do not mean that literally as in stashing it in mattresses. I mean in terms of income, over speculative instruments. I.e. money market accounts, CDs or other safe income investments.

If, however, a person - millennial or other - comes into a windfall and can afford to part with a hundred thou in a loss without wasting time making it up, I say 'go for it'.  Make wise choices and perhaps pick an index fund but don't interact too much.  But if you  don't have the money to lose, never mind the green eyeshade types - you're best in conservative instruments. This is especially if - like Joseph Berardino warned in an FT piece some years back -the current reporting system “fails to communicate essential information about the real risks facing companies” to the small investor.

Berardino warned that accountants can only issue ‘pass’ or ‘fail’ judgments on companies – but cannot disclose the red ink being bled by a company that’s been passed. (What's referred to as a “bleeding edge” company wherein auditors are actually resigning). To do so would precipitate a collapse in share prices.  Who gets stuck by this 'black hole' of information? Why the little guy investor, of course, aka Joe Schmoe.  Under such conditions, the small investor risks his money and security, by investing in ANY non-FDIC insured monetary device.

A word to the wise: DO what feels right for YOU. Just be sure you're not just stashing cash in a mattress.

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Update:   As per a report in today's Denver Post Business Section (p. 15A) a participant in a Morgan Stanley 401k filed a lawsuit Friday against MS for "millions of dollars in losses" suffered by nearly 60,000 participants. Morgan Stanley was blamed for a plethora of fund offerings "with poor track records and high fees".