Wednesday, August 19, 2026

Can Reading Good Fiction Cure "Conspiracy Obsession"'?

 


David Baldacci's recent WSJ Review article ('Our Obsession With Conspiracy Theories Is Human, So Is The Cure', Aug.  15-16, p. C1) makes some valid points regarding the genesis of CTs but in the end fails to ma ke adequate distinctions. Especially between outright lying, misinformation, disinformation, propaganda - as well as information warfare and the role of conspiracy analysis.  

On account of this lack of discrimination, Baldacci is able to claim that simple fiction-novel reading can be a "cure", i.e. 

"Maybe more storytelling, more imagination, more fiction is what's needed to combat the unreality spun online."  

Adding: 

"I don't mean to say that fiction is a substitute for a good education, but at our best we novelists probe deeper truths precisely because the facts cannot always, ever, be totally known."  

But with diligent, education-based research, they can mostly be known and I'd argue enough to distinguish between codswallop and a coherent conspiracy that actually did occur. For example, the Iran-Contra conspiracy as explained in detail in The Iran-Contra Report, (1994) published by Random House at the behest of Independent Counsel Lawrence E. Walsh.  

The basic facts to take away concerning the  Iran-Contra conspiracy are these:


- Reagan admin. shipping Israeli Hawk and TOW missiles to Iran from 1985-86 to obtain the release of American hostages held in the Middle East. This was despite an embargo on such sales.

- The money from the sales of these arms was to be funneled into Nicaragua to support the Rightist “Contras’, a violation of the then
Boland Amendment, and basically exposing the Reagan administration’s covert support for paramilitary activities conducted against the Sandinista government.

As noted in Walsh’s Introduction (p. xv):

The Iran and Contra operations were merged when funds generated from the sale of weapons to Iran were diverted to support the Contra mission in Nicaragua.  Although this diversion may be the most dramatic aspect of Iran-contra, it is important to emphasize that both the Iran and contra operations, separately, violated United States policy and the law.”

Corroborating this, on July 18, 1981 the then USSR's TASS news agency reported the emergency landing near the USSR-Turkish border of an Argentine-registered transport aircraft leased and flown by Israelis, carrying a full load of US weaponry and military spare parts. The US Assistant Secretary of State for the Middle East, Nicholas Veliotes, subsequently investigated this occurrence and concluded that the downed aircraft was on its third such flight in a series of shipments of US weapons to Iran which had been authorized by high officials in the Reagan Administration.

In terms of the scale and scope of the deal, on p. 338 of the Iran-Contra Report we see: “3300 TOWs for hostages”, then on p. 339, we note: “In fact, 1,000 TOW missiles had been delivered to Iran between February 15 and 17, 1986.”

These facts were germane and important because they disclosed the extent of the conspiracy as well as the people involved.  But this is the essential nature of all real conspiracies in the political realm to somehow leverage power to the advantage of those seeking to impose their own agenda.  Note the elements of outright lying, misinformation and disinformation were all integrated into the conspiracy to make it work - at least until it was exposed.  

In the case of the JFK assassination conspiracy all of these elements were also present, in addition to outright manipulation of the physical evidence. For example, use of mortician's plaster to make the rear of Kennedy's skull appear intact - as opposed to the occipital region being blown out, as first exposed (below right) by David Lifton in his book, Best Evidence

Other interventions included the destruction of the limo, a well as Kennedy's suit coat with the clear bullet hole in the upper back-shoulder area, e.g.  Which then allowed Warren Commissioner Gerald Ford to alter the direction of bullet entry to conform with the nonsensical 'single bullet theory'  - thereby eliminating the need to look for any additional assassins.


Which then allowed Warren Commissioner Gerald Ford to alter the direction of bullet entry to conform with the nonsensical 'single bullet theory'  - thereby eliminating the need to look for any additional assassins.  Numerous other manipulations were also done by the Commission including the falsification of the FPCC handbills reportedly handed out by Oswald- and reported by Military Science professor John Newman in his book, Oswald and the CIA.  Of course, Newman also revealed Oswald's CIA files which the Warren Commission kept concealed.

In previous blog posts I noted Barbadian psychologist Pat Bannister's categorization of those who invoke conspiracies and how she differentiated them. As part of her construction of a theory of mind, specifically showing the role of lying in young children, she also noted adeptness at detecting lies was linked to accurate detection of real conspiracies. 

For example, in connection to the Kennedy assassination real lies have been uncovered, not just Gerald Ford's manipulation of the autopsy report, i.e.  .


But in lying about key details to do with Oswald's USMC shooting scores. 
Taking one specific example, Mark Lane showed the misdirection used in the Warren Report to do with the conditions applicable to Oswald's USMC  rifle test scores, citing the questioning of a Major Eugene D. Anderson in reference to Commission Exhibit No. 239. (p. 124).  From his ambivalent  testimony, the WC simply published Anderson's speculations on what the weather on May 6, 1959 might have been - e.g. for Oswald to have achieved low test firing scores.. 

Anderson at first  saying "it was an ideal day" for firing conditions then that "it might have been a bad day for firing the rifle"  But as Lane pointed out (ibid.):

"Although the Commission adopted and published the major's speculation on what the weather 'might well have been'  there was no need for imprecision on this point. Whenever weather is a factor in a court case in the United States, the records of the United States Weather Bureau are subpoenaed and presented as a matter of course.  ... The Weather Bureau records show that the day was not 'windy, rainy, dark', it was sunny and bright and no rain fell."

On exposing this egregious omission or oversight, for example, Lane was able to show the sundry others clearly used to distort public perceptions, such as the phony FPCC and bills and the omission of more than 200 material witnesses.

Dr. Bannister  published papers, mainly appearing in university symposiums, showing that conspiracy investigation arose as an evolutionary adaptation to the (earlier evolved) ability to lie. In her conception, if conspiracy is among the most sophisticated forms of lying (entailing misdirecting actions as well as words)  then an evolutionary  "equalizer" was needed in order to expose it so this advanced lying would not be to the total future detriment of a tribe, community or nation.

Think of it: effective conspiracy (a surreptitious plan to alter outside events to a group's advantage)  is not merely a simple matter of bending the truth, but deforming it in an extended manner over time - to achieve a specific end or manifestation in the real world that provides a substantial benefit to the architects.

It requires not only the awareness of what's in the minds of those one conspires against and those who might try to detect the plan, but also predicting in advance how they might act or respond to prevent the conspiracy from being executed in the first place. And also predicting how future inquirers might be impeded from exposing it decades later.

Thus, as Bannister pointed out in a 1972 UWI  symposium, the Kennedy assassination conspirators would have to know not only how the normal law enforcement structure would respond, but also the official  paraphernalia needed to misdirect it in the case of an accidental encounter while the plot was unfolding. (Thus, years later, with the publication of Abraham Bolden's 'The Echo From Dealey Plaza', we learned about the role of the stolen Secret Service Commission books, and the crucial role they played in misdirecting authorities from the actual plan, locations of the real assassin and his assistant at the Grassy Knoll. (When a Dallas Motorcycle cop got to the Knoll to confront 2 strangers, they each produced a Secret Service Commission book.)

The conspirators would also have to be able to predict where the biggest potential threats might lurk, where the odd citizens with movie cameras (like Abraham Zapruder and Orville Nix) might be, or those with still cameras (like Mary Moorman). Thus, they'd need to have special teams ready to confiscate them.  The greatest level of forward planning and cognition was reserved for the autopsy - which had to be carried out in a secure venue under full government control (at Bethesda Naval Hospital not Dallas' Parkland Hospital) so that the actual entry and egress points for the bullets could be manipulated as well as x-rays, regular photographs.

In other words, in concert the JFK conspiracy effort amounted to one of the most sophisticated lies in history, fooling a generation almost totally  until at least the JFK Records Act required long stored documents, files be released to the public. Bannister didn't accept any of this was hopeless, and whatever the conspiracy, there would always be 'x' other minds capable of detecting its mechanisms ex post facto from clues that the conspirators left behind. 

In Bannister's mode of thought then, the conspiracy alert sounder had to possess a theory of mind at least equal to the conspiracy planner's, certainly in finally exposing it.  Yes, there could be missteps - especially given the conspiracy planning side would inevitably add further layers of lies ex post facto to throw off conspiracy investigators. Not to mention having in place conspiracy "debunkers" - like Gerald Posner and Vince Buglosi-   to attack those like Mark Lane et al who revealed the facts.

These would be in the form of blatant, sophisticated attacks using misinformation and disinformation or simply ridiculing any person that even suggested conspiracy - no matter how well -versed or grounded the person's information and formulation. It was basically a race between successful gaming of the public mind and press via actual conspiratorial  actions (in cover ups) and exposing it at a deeper cognitive level by those with conspiracy awareness and the education allowing sustained research.

Given Prof. Bannister's theory of mind, conspiracy awareness leading to rational investigations and coherent research has led to the implication of the CIA in the Kennedy killing, under the direction of Allen Dulles as well as William Harvey, via the Staff D operation. This was amplified dramatically when the CIA Handbook for Assassinations turned up (following Operation PBSuccess in Guatemala in 1954), e.g.



not to mention the shocking details therein of special hit teams.
As noted in Document 1:

"The idea of forming assassination teams ('K' groups) apparently originated with Castillo Arenas in 1952.  Adopting Castillo Arenas' concept the [  ] chief routinely included two assassination specialists in his training plans.  CIA training for sabotage teams in early 1954 also included creating a 'K' group trained to perform assassinations."
 
Bannister coined the term "conspiracy culture" to distinguish it from "conspiracy research community". The latter she envisaged as the province of mature, rational adults who committed time and energy to serious analysis and research. The former was the realm of fantasists and overgrown adolescents who created such detritus (passed off as conspiracy) as the mRNA vaccine nonsense - supposedly interjecting 'nanobots' into unsuspecting bodies, as well as the QAnon rubbish of Dems eating babies, or Pizzagate - which had Hillary operating a child sex ring in a pizza parlor in D.C.

All this brings us to Baldacci's insistence that a good novel, or any form of good fiction can save the day and ward the reader off of baseless conspiracy fluff. But the catch here is that the novelist doesn't ring up hundreds of errors himself in portraying his theme. Alas, this is what famed novelist Stephen King did in his 2011 '11/22/63',  which I noted in a detailed post at that time:



So one might again say "reader - and writer- beware". Imagination is a useful entry into fiction, but there is no substitute for a solid education and research.


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