Sunday, July 31, 2011

NO BOGUS DEFICIT DEALS!!!!


The latest, from DailyKos:

By all accounts, it looks like a deal is about to be announced in which the debt ceiling is hiked in exchange for the promise of major spending cuts, including to entitlements, totaling at least $2.4 trillion.

Anything can happen, but it apppears the GOP is on the verge of pulling off a political victory that may be unprecedented in American history. Republicans may succeed in using the threat of a potential outcome that they themselves acknowledged would lead to national catastrophe as leverage to extract enormous concessions from Democrats, without giving up anything of any significance in return.

Not only that, but Republicans — in perhaps the most remarkable example of political up-is-downism in recent memory — cast their willingness to dangle the threat of national crisis as a brave and heroic effort they’d undertaken on behalf of the national interest. Only the threat of national crisis could force the immediate spending cuts supposedly necessary to prevent a far more epic crisis later.



Since last night I've had the ominous feeling that behind-the -doors meetings with Boehner and McConnell at the White House were nearing a "Neville Chamberlain" moment. I deduced this mainly from the shit-eating grins on the faces of the two Repukes which could barely be concealed. As I said in an aside to my wife: "I just hope Obama isn't planning to give away the farm to appease these guys!!"

Then, this morning the leaks began and none of them sounded good which is why the Net and especially Left Blogosphere has erupted like a supernova. Because what those like me smell is a grand betrayal.

MSNBC correspondent Luke Russert in one interlude mentioned trying to reach a point of "equal pain" divvied between both sides. But the plan on the table, for which some details have leaked, is ten times worse than Harry Reid's!

What "pain" might the Repukes endure?

"Some" defense cuts!

What pain might our side endure?

Possibly automatic cuts (up to $1.8 trillion) on Medicare!

Are you shitting me?? Defense cuts on their side for massive Medicare cuts on ours! That's no deal! That's not shared pain!

Meanwhile, Obama (now being called 'O'Bummer' on more and more left blogs) continues to bend over backwards to appease these miscreants to the point where you now actually wonder if he'll give in the whole 9 yards and allow a "balanced budget amendment" which would be the end of this nation. At one time, Obama said emphatically NO deal unless revenues are on the table, at least $400 billion in tax increases (he wouldn't even put the repeal of all the Bush tax cuts on the table).

Then, next, we heard he agreed with the Reid plan which offered NO revenue and $2.7 trillion in justy spending cuts, but at least no entitlement reforms.

Now, we hear that because of Repuke intransigence (and it is THEIR intransigence) he's prepared to cop to this cockamamey "automatic trigger" cum 12-man committee deal that pairs deep social safety net cuts vs. defense cuts for the repukes and again, no taxes!

This is an outrageous piece of bollocks and unworthy of any Dem president. You cannot give all your cards away and take all your D-poker cohorts' money and chips and give to the other side just to get them to keep playing! This is nuts!

Grow some balls, Mr. President! At least stick to your guns and demand the other side allow some revenue increases! You can't put ALL the onus for deficit repair on spending cuts! Apart from wrecking the economy (given it's poison in a demand poor environment) it will eliminate your plans for a 2nd term, by not only engendering a diminished no-growth, high unemployment environment but also pissing off your base!

Now, we need to get into some cartoon logic now which is being circulated by the WH gurus or some aides within. That is, no matter what odious, sellout deal is struck, the progressives will go along and stop bitching and also cease any efforts to force Obama into a primary competition next year.

The cartoon reasoning implicit in this hogwash is that progressives will be so terrified of the nutsos on the Right, say like getting one look at Michelle Bachmann or Sarah Palin and pondering them with the red box, they'll run to the polls to cast votes for Mr. O. Unfortunately, this is batshit crazy-think.

First, it shows these dipshit, pro-sellout aides aren't following the left blogs very carefully (especially the letters sections). One of the recurring themes in them is to just LET Bachmann or Palin and a Repug majority get in to "teach the Democrats how to fight for once".

The reasoning is that since Dems won't act like real Dems, since they take the base for granted given they have the Senate and the Executive, then mayhap being in the political wilderness for 4-6 years (and being forced to fight endlessly) will incite them to grow a spine. I don't say I necessarily see the benefit of this tack, but it is gaining momentum and gathering memetic inertia which will be difficult to stop.

Second, the pusillanimous tactics of the Dems, especially the White House, are beginning to feed the same lackadaisical attitudes embodied by the question: 'What's the point?', that created the massive abandonment of voting last November and drove the Repuke capture of the House. It seems to be accumulating pressure now, especially among the youngest voters, as well as many blacks and the elderly (who may just be put off by possible Medicare cuts on the table).

Do I think Obama will have to face a primary challenger next year? No, but it won't matter. If the base is de-energized because they've beheld their once proud and self-proclaimed fighter cave, it'll all be over but the pundit post -mortems.

Now, WH pseudo-experts may query why the Left and their cohort would "allow" this to happen? The answer inheres in what I call the "American Idol" voting paradigm. (Which I hear - from my wife, an avid fan- has often caused many worthy singers to be ditched in favor of lesser ones because the superior singers' specific fans just assumed everyone else would vote for them.

In the same manner, no single, de-energized pro-Dem person staying home will believe he or she could be uniquely responsible - say if Bachmann wins, or Palin- but will just assume too many more will go to the polls and vote anyway. After all, on many forums and blogs you still see often as many Obama apologists and defenders as critics. So the 'stay home' voter will simply assume those defenders will make up the slack of those like her who refuse to go out, not being motivated enough. Thus, one has at once the disqualification of any personal liability or responsibility for the bad outcome, matched with the passive-aggressive act of rejecting the standard bearer - by simply not showing up. ("Well, I didn't actually vote against him, I just expressed my discontent by not voting!")

But, as we know, that passive strategy can and does backfire, which is why it's so very dangerous and ALSO dangerous for WH ├╝ber-strategists who believe the "base will be too terrified" not to stay in line. What they aren't processing is that each leftie is supposing his fellows will "remain in line" while he takes the election off as being uninspired!

If this occurs in states in which Dems have lost governorships and legislatures (like Wisconsin, Florida, North Carolina, Indiana) it means Obama could easily lose those states and end up a one-termer. Especially if he loses Colorado too.

The moral of the story? It would be better for Obama to take a chance and courageous dare by invoking the 14th amendment (sec. 4,5) and raise the damned debt ceiling unilaterally, than to accept a tawdry imitation of a deal which will entice his base to finally abandon him as an empty suit...and more talk than 'hope and change'.

If, on the other hand, the repugnant "deal" cited by Daily Kos (top) is made, then we must rely on the House and Senate Democrats to shoot it down by vote. If Obama refuses to save himself, they must do it for him!

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