Showing posts with label Zeke Emanuel. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Zeke Emanuel. Show all posts

Thursday, April 16, 2020

Why Holman Jenkins & His WSJ Wrecking Crew Want To Get You Back To Work Prematurely





In  what Janice calls "Americans' last IQ test"  we beheld Capt. Bonespurs bellowing about getting the U.S. economy open before May.  Fortunately, the CEOs of major companies in a meeting with the imp pushed back, saying 'Whoa! We need lots more testing first!"  This echoes Dr. Tara Narulla's warning this a.m. - to those who have ears to listen and a brain to process: 

"We need tests to be ubiquitous, efficient and to have a rapid turnaround time.  Without that we're really flying blind - and it's not just a question of opening the economy but keeping the economy open. If we can do that and fix the problems on the supply side then hopefully we can reopen the economy and keep it open."

Clearly, Dr. Tara gets it - like nearly all medical specialists and especially the epidemiologists.  She gets that the economy cannot be prematurely opened - without enormous viral blowback  i.e. until an effective mass testing program is underway. This is one which can test 20 % or more of the population, as opposed to the barely 1 percent thus far.  But while she gets it, and millions of Americans do as well, we behold a build up of  irrational impatience in a number of places, from Vegas to Lansing, Michigan, even as the mitigation is beginning to work.  For example, we saw last night and this a.m parading Tea baggers holding 'Don't Tread on Us!' signs as well as others with 'Liberty once lost is lost forever' signs.  Hey, Trumpista dolts, how about your life once lost is lost forever?  Then you won't have to worry about any income, period!

Meanwhile, Vegas' mayor Carolyn Goodman belched out: "This shutdown has become one of total insanity!"  Uh no, my dear mayor lady, it's become an effective means to prevent Vegas' hospitals from overflowing with Covid patients.   But lest we come down too hard on these minor leaders like Goodman - or South Dakota's  clueless governor Kristi Noem (who refuses to shut down despite one of the biggest clusters in the nation) or the hoi polloi screaming protests for "taking their liberties", let's look further afield at the real culprits.  The brigands in media - mainly reactionary right trolls - who keep feeding these memes- energizing the "revolt of the dummies" to borrow J's parlance.

Start with the WSJ editorial scribes themselves (i.e. 'It's Still America, Virus Or Not!', April 13, p.  A16) who Joe Scarborough ripped to shreds just two mornings ago, e.g. "Who do these Wall Street  Journal editors think they are?  They yelp about liberals just wanting to feed money to workers instead of going back to their jobs. When they can sit in their nice home offices and not have to worry about getting sick!" 

Of course, though Joe focused on the rush to get back to jobs, the Journal's editors went even further off the deep end in their bogus arguments, ibid.:

"The First Amendment still stops government from prohibiting the free exercise of religion, and still guarantees the right to free assembly."

Incredibly conflating the first amendment and free exercise of religion with the right to assemble cheek to jowl amidst a pandemic..  So with the spread of such deformed and misbegotten memes it's no wonder we have seen as many fellow citizens as we have devolve into stupidity.  It seems, as Janice is wont to say, "in this country the virus of stupidity is as rife as the bat virus."  Well, yeah, ok, I have to agree if we see these Tea Party -like protests continue.

 Then there is the Journal's proudest provocateur and rhetorical bomb thrower, Holman Jenkins Jr. In an earlier (April 7) blog post  I already highlighted his  daft op-ed ('Was Dr. Strangelove an Epidemiologist?')  where he trots out a medical resident named Joseph A. Ladapo (of UCLA) who claimed in a recent op-ed that "the shutdowns if prolonged will only make matters worse."      Adding that even when restrictions are lifted "we will emerge right back where we started.... and no matter what our hospitals will still be overwhelmed."

Says who?  As I observed at the time one was left to wonder where this quack came by that "Eureka" brain fart.  In fact, Jenkins' balderdash was pure propaganda only spun to try to get pressure on the medical community to loosen standards and allow the virus to resume its hatchet job on hospitals, nursing homes, meat packing plants and prisons.  It can't be otherwise, i.e. like Jenkins Jr. really cares because every word he writes (e.g. 'Sweden Is a Viral Punching Bag', WSJ, April 15, p. A15) reinforces the conclusion he's out for one thing: reopening the economy too soon so he can quickly resume his evening dinners of foie de gras and wine.  Most telling in his latest (April 15, ibid.) jeremiad against the medical community:

"When it's all over, academics will look seriously at how the lockdown strategy compares with alternative strategies .  They will ask how much of our apparent curve flattening to date was due to individuals taking precautions, how much to heavy -handed government intervention. How many lives- and more realistically years- were really saved by our efforts?"

Again, the  little Neolib mutt just doesn't get it.   He doesn't get that the core issue is preventing our limited medical system (including in terms of supplies raided by Trump, Jared & Co.) from being overrun. Already in NYC the past two weeks we've beheld a system at the very brink - often with double the number of Covid patients for the ER (or ICU) capacity.  Did Holman see any of this?   The fact that New York's system didn't tip over into chaos was all because of the mitigation efforts which he belittles, suggesting some alternative mode of solutions exists. It doesn't, other than in his febrile mind.

Another crass and cynical aspect of the above quote from Jenkins' piece is the question, 'How many lives- more realistically years- were really saved by our efforts?'  This rhetorical bit and its implication may have been missed by many.  What he means by referring to "years saved" is the fact that older Americans - say in the 70-85 year bracket, don't have that many years of their life left anyway, say compared to young sprats, millennials etc.  Hence, the deaths of older Americans in his quantitative risk vs. benefit view don't count as much toward being "saved", if lost to Covid.  One hundred seniors with maybe two years left each (on average) to live in nursing homes, by his reckoning, adds up to 200 years saved. Compared to 100 millennials with maybe 50 years each left to live.  In this way, Jenkins can pretend to minimize the loss of life, the same way his conservo compadre Bill O'Reilly could when he said of dying seniors in nursing homes, "They were mostly on their last legs anyway."

But look, without any valid cures, treatments or vaccines,  we are all for the high jump anyway, say if the economy is prematurely opened. Especially before widespread effective testing and contact tracing. This is the method we are left with, whether Jenkins Jr. likes it or not. Or his WSJ compadre Daniel Henninger (WSJ, today,'Restore Laissez -Faire Capitalism', p. A13) who insists we need "a bare bones government, not a bare bones economy".   Hey, Henny, how about just bare bones - and skulls - piled up in pit graves across the country? You ok with that, mate?  After all, Henny doesn't want any "security blanket statism " (i.e. 'dirigisme') with workers begging the gov't to  help feed them and their family- say instead of the hedge fund owners ready to tap into the PPP (Paycheck Protection Program).  As revealed by Bloomberg News, most of these hedge fund operations chomping at the bit for cheap, no strings loans, only have four or five employees.   Henny, I am sure, will be fine with that "laissez-faire" giveaway as will Holman Jenkins.

Thus, whisking millions back to work prematurely serves two main purposes for the WSJ's hacks: 1) Disabling any need for the govt' to step in again to send relief checks or expand food stamps etc., and 2) To provide more billions for the rich, the one percent, hedge fund owners, Repuke donors and the like..   As I often say, you can't make this shit up. Out of the mouths of capitalist loons and baboons.

Zeke Emanuel (oncologist and Vice Provost for Global Initiatives at the Univ. of Pennsylvania)- put it in stark terms for the economy über alles  humpers like Jenkins, Henninger et al on the April 6th 'Last Word' :

"Realistically COVID -19 will be here at least for the next 18 months or more.  There will be no normalcy until we find a vaccine or effective medications.   I know that's dreadful news to hear. How are people supposed to find work if this goes on in some form for a year and a half?   Is all this economic pain worth trying to stop COVID-19?

The truth is, we have no choice. Prematurely ending the physical distancing and the other measures, the deaths could skyrocket into the hundreds of thousands if not millions. We cannot return to normal  until there's a vaccine. Conferences, concerts, sporting events, religious services, dinner at a restaurant, none of that will resume until we find a vaccine, a treatment or  a cure."


At the basis of these strategies is the nature of exponential growth for this virus, e.g.

 As described by one knowledgeable WSJ columnist ('The Power of Exponential Growth', p. C4, April 4-5). 

"Exponential growth is dangerous because if each person infects more than one other person, the spread of disease quickly becomes overwhelming. Multiplying by 3 for instance. it only takes 21 steps to reach 10 billion, more than the current population of the world."

 Little Holman would do well to process and remember her words, and he might also avail himself of the recent work of sane WSJ columnist Jo Craven McGinty ('Why The Flu Doesn't Tank The Economy',  April 11-12, p A2) wherein she notes:  "Instead of gentle waves of cases cascading around the country like the flu, a tidal wave of Covid cases has swept across major cities in half the time"

The point being that the R- nought is significantly greater so the rate of transmission is faster. This is a fact any dolt has to master before jumping like a lemming onto the hurry up and re-open bandwagon.  

 Holman needs to process all this (along with his WSJ editors) before he next writes fulsome twaddle complaining about "heavy-handed government intervention".   Nobel winning economist Paul Romer on All In last week posited over 300 million tests were needed nationwide before we can even think of returning to business as usual.  This country isn't even doing one hundredth of such tests per week, so how can there be the most remote hint of reopening? Further, the U.S. federal government "has yet to launch a national test and trace strategy to find and isolate virus carriers" (WSJ, today, p. A9), without which it is sheer madness to reopen.

At minimum, as Prof. Romer indicated to Chris Hayes,  we need at least 4- 5 million tests per week to get a basic idea who's infected, where the virus is. The sad and sorry fact? The U.S. of A. has barely done 3.2 million tests in the past month - so we're way way behind the curve of testing adequacy.  Without that and contact tracing it's a bloody fool's errand to open the country up. Apart from which opening up is not like flicking on a light switch. As Anthony Fauci pointed out to ABC's David Muir in an interview on the news  last night:

"It's gonna be like a rolling re-entry not like a light switch turning on and off.... Also, we do not know everything about this virus and what it's capable of doing. It is also entirely conceivable we will see a rebound of the virus as we get into a seasonal situation, such as next fall or winter."

The other element Jenkins and his team of  greedhead buffoons don't grasp, is that the economy is inextricably bound with the nature of the virus, the pandemic.  "You want to get the economy back? Take care of the virus!"  In the words of Chris Hayes, host of 'All In' last night. Until the problem of the virus is fully solved, there is no way in hell that the economy can come back even in a diluted, weakened state. But try telling or explaining that to those like the Pennsylvania Repukes pushing against Gov. Tom Wolf to open the state up - with one Repuke Mike Turzai- blurting:

"The hurt from the economy is as great as the hurt from the virus, so we need to help both at the same time."

Uh no, dope, you can't "help both at the same time".   The reason is that the economic function -at any level - is contingent on the control of the virus.  That is only achieved with a vast testing and contact tracing program. Do you have that? If no, then you can't open the economy yet.  The worst outcome at this stage would be a second wave of deaths, illness to begin because states let up too soon.   Such a scenario would force an even longer postponement. How hard is this to process?

With inadequate testing there will always be the lurking virus clusters (like in a Smithfield meat plant Sioux Falls,SD because of its inept, dumb governor Kristi Noem) especially with the dearth of proper testing going on now - which ought to have commenced months ago.

On reading Jenkins' propaganda piffle it was also clear to me he doesn't really believe in the idea - better principle, of flattening the curve. This is when he refers to "apparent curve flattening".    But there's nothing "apparent" about it.
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One can see, even if one has zero math skills and couldn't pass a Mensa test if his life depended on it (like Jenkins et al) that flattening the curve is real and is evidenced when the caseloads are less than what we'd see if the hospitals were overwhelmed. As we look to the states where strict mitigation was in force, e.g. CA, WA, we can easily see it works and they've even been able to donate ventilators and staff to the states in the east (NY, NJ etc.). 

Another aspect is that if mitigation is not coordinated simultaneously  for all states, then one would have different curves in succession at different times -  like a wave train.  This is what the US of A is in for,  looking at the red states like TX, SD, etc. none of which have firm shelter in place rules.  That means, logically - as virologist Dr. David Ho has pointed out, the curves for flattening are spread out over time.  Don't fancy the longer wait?   Then blame Trump for his lack of leadership is setting up a coherent national coordination policy!

In the case of multiple curves spread over time, we then have -  instead of one area under the curve to deal with say 'A'  (the area under the green hump above)-   a succession of areas: A1 + A2 + A3 etc. each area extending over the time axis.   That means the flattening process will take much much longer and hence the time to justify reopening the economy will take much longer.  This is what Jenkins and his band of nitwits doesn't grasp.  That includes the likes of ol' Phil Gramm - long time anti-big government gadfly (and former Chairman of the Senate Banking Committee)who in his latest effort ('More Stimulus Would Crush The Recovery',  WSJ, April 15, p. 17)  clearly has no sympathy for the 17-odd million Americans currently without income - other than what the CARES act has provided. And yet this mutt would deny them any more despite that $1200 per person, and extra unemployment cash - will barely last another month - if they are lucky.

What's Gramm's (and co-author's Michael Solon's) answer?   Well, it's to "rely on private capital and initiative and our free enterprise system".   In other words, let the loafers waiting for new handouts get off their butts and figure out - using "initiative" - ways to enhance their cash flow without depending on gov't handouts.  Else, "all this new government borrowing will consume the very oxygen a powerful recovery will need,"

What are Gramm, Jenkins Jr., Solon and the Wall Street Journal editorialists terrified of? Well, a "Depression-esque recovery" demanded by the Democrats in an election year. Which, of course would be horrific given the Democrats "have sought to use the crisis to permanently expand government spending and the role government plays in the aftermath."

Yep, for sure we don't want government providing desperate millions of our fellow citizens a lifeline to survive a few more months - with no money coming in to pay for groceries, utilities, or rent.  The Repuke barbarians would rather let those millions perish in pauperhood than let the federal government extend a helping hand.  The motto of these apes is to "let 'em lift themselves by their own bootstraps or pound sand."

Hence, the Scrooge aspects of so many of the "solutions" proferred, from raiding their own 401ks to get the money they need, to taking out loans and asking for "forbearance", to drawing down on their Social Security early.  What next will these fools offer? Going to blood banks and trying to sell blood to get nutrition for their starving kids? 

Instead, they'd rather keep that $250m now being held up (in the latest CARES bill) to support more tax breaks for hedge fund billionaires and other wealthy pals of Trump and the Repubs.  As noted  last night (All In) the Washington Post reported that 80 percent of the tax changes in the new coronavirus  relief package "overwhelmingly benefit millionaires."    So while a young guy like Ned Standford, featured on ABC news and just laid off, barely has a buck left to get a box of Kraft Macaroni and Cheese, the millionaires that WSJ and Jenkins et al pander to will be sitting pretty.  But this is all the more reason people not allow themselves to be played like pawns by the Wall Street cowboy capitalists.  Will the Tea Party type Trumpsters marching in Lansing and elsewhere get it?  I didn't even bother to ask Janice as I know already what she will say.

Btw, if you're wondering why your "stimulus" check is taking longer to arrive it's because Trump deliberately held them up so his monicker could be imprinted on the checks by the Treasury Dept. (He now denies it, but the delay has already affected the timing.)  So the checks will now take an extra 2-3 days (so we're told) because Trump has to stroke his own ,monstrous ego- even while kids are going without soup and parents without basics like TP.

And:

And:



Tuesday, April 7, 2020

Economy Uber Alles Chauvinists Need To Get A Grip: This COVID Crisis Isn't Ending Any Time Soon


The  "economy over all" pressure purveyors - for anyone who's been reading the reactionary financial press (and even some mainstream media) -  are out in abundance. The common theme of these impatient  Trump trolls,  quack doctors and econ-driven pundits is that we "cannot afford"  to keep the shutdown going (now affecting 41 states with 9 dumbo states still opting out).  The argument is basically a take off on Trump's earlier bilge that the "cure can't be worst than the disease".  Well, uh, yes, it can - if you have a nation that blew every opportunity to get the national outbreak under control. This indeed, is the curse of having Trump & Co. in charge as they've blown it from the get go.  For two weeks downplaying the threat, then  failing to act to get sufficient ventilators, then doing nada - in actually coordinating medical supplies- while the states tried to outbid each other for N95 masks and ventilators.  All this while we beheld a daily spiel full of lies, exaggerations and happy talk designed to lure the stupid and gullible into letting their guards down  See e.g. 


AP FACT CHECK: Trump's misfires on virus death rates, tests


 Even this morning Trump was at it again, lying through his teeth, insisting the federal gov't is rushing supplies to hard hit areas. But notably dismissing an inspector general's report  (released Monday) showing hospitals are lacking critical supplies and dealing with long delays in waiting for coronavirus test results.  As per his M.O. Trump tried to  spin the IG report as "politically biased", never mind it was based on interviews with 323 hospital administrators.  Trump actually said in response to pressure for more testing (CBS, this a.m.): "We're the federal government, we're not supposed to be standing on street corners doing testing."

Actually, sonny, that's pretty close to what you should be doing if you have any intention of getting the economy out of its medically induced coma. Because without testing, without knowing where the virus is - who has it - including the millions who are infected but asymptomatic (and spreading it),  any ambition to reopen the economy is dead in the water.

Even worse, and like your typical snake oil salesman, Trump has been shamelessly pushing the anti-malarial drug hydroxychloroquine, often making  reckless comments literally pulled out of his fat ass.  ("What do ya have to lose?")  The bombastic buffoon even had the temerity to interrupt Dr. Anthony Fauci -  when a reporter at the presser yesterday asked if there was any evidence the drug actually worked on the virus. Dotard,  believing himself to have more expertise than Dr. Fauci, blabbed at the reporter (WSJ, today, p. A4): "Do you know how many times he's answered that question? Maybe 15 times! You don't have to ask that question!" 

But he does need to ask that question,, and of Dr. Fauci himself, when the nation is confronted by this orange maggot's exaggerations and  con man hype day in and day out - at these briefings - which are merely glorified campaign rallies in miniature.  So this human refuse is literally playing with thousands of American lives with his insane narcissistic maneuvers, spinning and refusal to take any responsibility. If we hit the million death mark you can blame this asshole.  See e.g.
Drug pusher Trump has a share in the malaria drug he keeps over-selling for COVID-19

Making matters worse, and effectively acting as accomplices are the numerous pundits, editorial writers and columnists trying to apply pressure to open things up - while downplaying the risks of premature economic moves in any or all states. For example, there is the WSJ's Holman Jenkins, Jr. ('Was Dr. Strangelove an Epidemiologist?')  where he trots out a guy named Joseph A. Ladapo (of UCLA) who claims in a recent op-ed that "the shutdowns if prolonged will only make matters worse."    

Adding that even when restrictions are lifted "we will emerge right back where we started.... and no matter what our hospitals will still be overwhelmed."

Says who?  One is left to wonder where this quack came by that "Eureka" brain fart. But it surely must have made little Holman's own Eureka moment to find such an outlier clown to help him make the case we need to ditch the shutdown ASAP for the sake of our economy. (A position the same day WSJ editorial ('The Shutdown Crash Arrives') vigorously supported, observing "the anti-virus strategy is putting millions out of work"

Sadly, neither the WSJ editors, or Jenkins Jr. or William McGurn (e.g. today) , Kim Strassel and others in that 'hurry up and open the damned country" orbit get it.  That opening prematurely without millions more tests is a colossal fool's errand doomed to backfire, and badly.  In contrast to Jenkins et al at least one WSJ columnist (Greg Ip) seems to get it, writing in his own column ('Uncertain Path of Virus Poses Its Own Risks', p.  A8):  "These days excessive confidence should be greeted with skepticism".

And particularly when used as part of a coordinated PR ploy to push an end to the shutdown (which isn't even nationwide given 9 states are still playing roulette with their residents' lives).  Again. without testing - we are flying blind- and we can't know how many are actually infected in this country, and how many others they are likely infecting and how many hospital beds, ICU space and ventilators will be needed to cover all bases.  As Elizabeth Rosenthal asked in a recent NY Times piece:


How can we know when to reopen society without testing many more people?

The framework for this answer is tied inextricably to the fact that this virus is  not only insidious (in that it can hide among a large segment of the populace who have few or no symptoms) but also the exponential nature of its spread. I.e.

As described by one knowledgeable WSJ columnist ('The Power of Exponential Growth', p. C4, April 4-5):

"Exponential growth is dangerous because if each person infects more than one other person, the spread of disease quickly becomes overwhelming. Multiplying by 3 for instance. it only takes 21 steps to reach 10 billion, more than the current population of the world"(7.75 billion)

Therein lies the key that too few of these econ -pushing pundits, columnists and editorial writers get, and why all the rosy blabber about ending this threat in weeks or months is Pollyannish poppycock.

 Those in search of a  more realistic assessment and answer to Ms. Rosenthal's question can do no better than Zeke Emanuel (oncologist and Vice Provost for Global Initiatives at the Univ. of Pennsylvania)- who put it in stark terms for the economic chauvinists and humpers last night ('Last Word') :

"Realistically COVID -19 will be here at least for the next 18 months or more.  There will be no normalcy until we find a vaccine or effective medications.   I know that's dreadful news to hear. How are people supposed to find work if this goes on in some form for a year and a half?   Is all this economic pain worth trying to stop COVID-19?

The truth is, we have no choice. Prematurely ending the physical distancing and the other measures, the deaths could skyrocket into the hundreds of thousands if not millions. We cannot return to normal  until there's a vaccine. Conferences, concerts, sporting events, religious services, dinner at a restaurant, none of that will resume until we find a vaccine, a treatment or  a cure.

One thing I've learned as a cancer doctor is that it's wrong to paint an overly rosy picture in order to maintain a patient's hope.  Because it fails, it's false.  Biology and disease are formidable opponents that inevitably tell us the truth.  We cannot reieve the oppression of this pandemic until we are realistic. So we need to prepare ourselves for this to last 18 months or more and for the toll it will take, We need to develop a long term solution based on those facts. It has to account for what we are losing as this fight goes on. 

Lawrence, this crisis is not going to go away in a few weeks or when the thirty day plan comes to an end. Although  COVID-19 is affecting us in different ways, and we have to be up to it and fight together.  

When things do open it will probably first be schools because  younger people are more likely to be protected, less likely to die. But that has to be on a voluntary basis. But we can only do that opening when we have testing and the right public health infrastructure.""

The preceding ought to be read and re-read for anyone mesmerized by Trump's  happy talk B.S., false hope blather.   In conjunction with the above, you might also wish to check out the description of this virus'effects on the lungs - by Dr. Kathryn Dreger (NY Times, last week).  Therein she writes:

"It causes a gummy yellow fluid, called exudate, to fill the air sacs, stopping the free flow of oxygen. If only a few air sacs are filled, the rest of the lung takes over. When more and more alveoli are filled, the lung texture changes...  These machines  (ventilators) can’t fix the terrible damage the virus is causing, and if the virus erupts, the lungs will get even stiffer, as hard as a stale marshmallow.

“I feel like I’m trying to ventilate bricks instead of lungs,”  is how one intensive care unit doctor put it.

The heart begins to struggle, begins to fail. Blood pressure readings plummet, a condition called shock. For some, the kidneys fail completely, which means a dialysis machine is also needed to survive. Doctors are left with impossible choices. Too much oxygen poisons the air sacs, worsening the lung damage, but too little damages the brain and kidneys. Too much air pressure damages the lung, but too little means the oxygen can’t get in. Doctors try to optimize, to tweak.....

Even among the Covid-19 patients who are ventilated and then discharged from the intensive care unit, some have died within days from heart damage"

The preceding horrific 'drowning' effects -  and equally desperate treatments -  are worth avoiding even if only a minority of citizens might endure them.  And that means keeping the economy shuttered down - as the sensible Europeans have done  (WSJ, 'Europe Freezes Economy, Willing To Pay  Price',   March 27, p. A9).

The alternative of opening businesses too soon will be too horrible to contemplate and in the end be self-defeating. That's because such premature opening will lead to a second (and likely worse wave) of illness, with an even longer "medically induced coma" for the U.S. economy. 

Our best option now? Follow the lead of the Europeans,  or better  yet, New Zealand, 


And not be suckered by the bollocks of either Holman Jenkins, Jr. or his pet toady doc (Ladapo)  willing to provide specious cover for his codswallop. 

See Also:


Trump wants a quick economic recovery, but China’s experience hints at long-lasting problems