A recent (Jan.26, p. A1) WSJ piece has warned: China Plots AI-Driven Military) eliciting the question of how seriously we ought to take this threat - if indeed serious threat it is. On reading the article carefully, and given the Chinese military is now dedicating huge outlays to 'swarm intelligence' (simulating clashes between drone swarms in real time), I'd say the U.S. needs to take the Chinese thrust using AI systems very seriously indeed.
First thing first. As author Josh Chin notes:
"Militaries around the world are intrigued by the idea of advanced self -teaching forms of AI like those that underpin ChatGPT, to improve everything from logistics to battle field analysis and combat. Actual use of the military technology is still in its infancy and shrouded in secrecy."
The angle of the Chinese People's Liberation Army? According to the WSJ:
"The PLA is intensely focused on harnessing AI to deploy swarms of drones, robot dogs and other autonomous systems. The idea is they could overwhelm enemies or erect impenetrable defenses with minimal human input."
The bad news for the U.S.? Since 2022, Chinese defense contractors, military institutes and military-oriented universities "have published at least 930 patent filings related to swarm intelligence. There have been only 60 such patent filings in the U.S. over the same period. And 10 of those were from Chinese entities."
What makes the Chinese AI swarm effort so formidable is the widespread use of animal models to perfect the interactions. For example, using actual hawks to see how they select prey, or fend off other animal opponents. In one five-on -five test, the AI driven hawks destroyed all the AI doves in 5.3 seconds.
We know drones have already emerged as key and formidable weapons on Ukraine's battlefields. It's also become clear that drone swarms can be used as effective decoys to force an enemy to burn through its munitions while the real threat takes deadly aim. (Taking out enemy soldiers and tanks while they are preoccupied with the decoys.)
Now, by inter linking AI with robots, the Chinese will be able to exploit its existing advantage in hardware (Chinese factories can already pump out a million or more drones each year.) This confers on the PLA an enormous tactical advantage.
Already, in one 2024 test, a truck-mounted system launched as many as 48 fixed wing drones at a time. The Chinese state broadcaster insisted the system could also be used to launch 200 at one time - capable of also splitting up to carry out coordinated tasks. These could include reconnaissance, strikes and deception.
The basis of future strategies, as acquired by Georgetown University's CSET (Center for Security and Emerging Technology) is also enough to give a person the willies. For example, CSET already has seen plans to create AI-driven deep fake videos to broadcast via lasers onto buildings. In addition, there's a plan afoot for an unmanned ground vehicle to blast target with sounds loud enough (400 decibels) to rupture eardrums. In the words of Sam Bresnick, a researcher at CSET: "The idea is can some company deliver this kind of thing so we can produce it at scale?"
What Bresnick insists has been a "fever dream" of Chinese military ambitions for decades, does have one big pitfall. Current AI-driven swarm systems are almost entirely dependent on radio communications between drones which are easily disrupted b electronic attacks. In addition, while the Chinese AI-based animal model algorithms theoretically give large numbers of drones rules on how to at (or react) in concert to execute missions, the trick is getting them to work in realistic battlefield scenarios.
But make no mistake the U.S. "Department of War" is taking the threat seriously. We learn at the end of the WSJ piece that "the Pentagon is striving to close the gap with China." To that end, "a new, long range kamikaze drone that costs $35,000 has been developed."
Let's hope it's worth the cost in an actual battlefield setting.
See Also:
200 Drones One Mind How China's AI Swarm Tech Works
And:
China Drone Warfare: PLA Releases New Footage of Drone Swarm Tests | WION NEWS
And:
China’s Military Labs Build 'Apex Predator' Drones, Robot Packs
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