"Sorry Joe, I love you, but it is really time to take away the keys to save the Nation. And we all know it. I will vote for you if you stay in, but prefer you give the reins over to younger, stronger and a better communicator who can take down the fascist wannabes and continue to restore dignity, kindness, and competence to the White House, as you have done. Democrats are adaptable and realize it is the Democratic policies that matter to us all. Republicans are inflexible and devote all their energy to one man who says he is the only one that can fix it."- WaPo Comment yesterday
“It makes me sad that Biden doesn’t see what’s
inescapable: If he doesn’t walk away gracefully right now, he will likely go
down as a pariah and ruin his legacy.”
– Maureen Dowd, NY Times, ‘Lord Almighty,
Joe! Let It Go!’
The saying in the Vegas poker card game rooms: is "You have to know when to hold 'em and when to fold 'em." Well, the time is now to "fold 'em in terms of another run for the presidency, Joe. All good things must come to an end, as they say, and it is time to end your 2024 campaign. The polling, which you may well disbelieve, is foretelling a hideous wipeout this November which we cannot afford. Neither the party or the nation. Certainly, we cannot afford to lose the House too, given its oversight power and passing legislation.
As I wrote in my June 28th post right after that cataclysm:
"the weak, thready voice - compounded by frequent stammering - left its residue in viewers' minds (and ears), certainly mine. The impact was that 90% of his points were lost because either they weren't heard properly or were too weakly delivered. The impression left was one of "an enfeebled candidate" to quote MSNBC's Joy Reid in the post-debate analysis.
Trump, by contrast, barked bodaciously in blustering responses, ninety five percent of which contained zero accurate content and were tangential to the moderators' questions. The lies themselves flew out of his mouth like a firehose. I told Janice I estimated two hundred in two minutes but it may have only seemed that way since so many were put together in single word salads. The result? Trump created the illusion of having more energy, more youth and more mental acuity - but of course that degraded as the debate wore on."
Alas, as I also noted, this disaster cannot be undone or unseen, and certainly not by tiddly winks minor events like rallies, or interviews or even press conferences (like the NATO one) . In the latter you also managed to garble key names - mixing up Kamala Harris (your VP) with Trump, and Zelenskiiy with Putin. People- viewers, noticed and these flubs (which may be minor to you) grossly magnified the image of a president who is woefully weak in effective communication when we need him to 'ace it' every time. And hence, being so ineffective, is unlikely to take down Trump and the MAGAs.
The defensive and unrealistic answers in the July 5th Stephanopoulos interview were equally pathetic and disclosed an air of unreality- leaving an even more despairing outlook in the minds of many voters. Including when Stephanopoulos asked about taking a cognitive test to brush back the doubts and you replying:
"Look. I have a cognitive test every single day. Every day I have that test. Everything I do. You know, not only am I campaigning, but I’m running the world,”
Inciting me to respond in my July 8th post:
"No, Joe, you are not "taking a cognitive test every day" nor are you "running the world". You are performing the day-to-day tasks entrusted to the leader of one nation (USA) and these are basically pro forma- defined in the Constitution. Also, they do not test any particular aptitude, whether quantitative, verbal or analytical thinking."
At that time you trailed Trump by six points in both the New York Times/Siena College and Wall Street Journal polls. It's since gotten worse and the predictive markets now have you losing in a blowout -
Never mind the Pollyannas who still believe you can pull it out. But recent polls disclose two thirds of Democrats now want you to bow out realizing these polls are not make believe. (And recall in 2020 you NEVER were behind Trump in polling, and even then - but for 44,000 votes in 3 key swing states might have reached a 269-269 tie with the final decision going to the Repuke House.)
At this point, there is only one remote way to counter the dismal polling trend, and that is to obliterate the cringe worthy memory of your June 27th debate. In effect, you would need to debate Trump again immediately, and wipe the floor with him. Thus, enabling viewers to aver "Yeah, he really does have it. The last debate was just a bad night!" But failing such an event or not doing it, means the viewers' perceptions are solidified from the previous debate last month. And there is no way out of it, no rallies, no interviews, no press conferences, and frankly, I doubt even Town Halls will work at this stage.
Let us note for the record here that the age bogey also exploded for Reagan - in an October, 1984 debate with Walter Mondale - in the same way it did for Biden (an awful performance in a campaign debate.) But weeks later Reagan resurrected himself in a new debate and wacked Mondale, including with this zinger:
"I will not make age an issue in this campaign. I am not going to exploit, for political purposes, my opponent's youth and inexperience."
Reagan went on to win in a landslide. Is Biden capable of a similar comeback? I somehow doubt it and probably too much time has already passed. I.e. to get back as many viewers as in the first debate. But it also means Biden courts a second disaster in the Sept. debate with Trump.
So let's face reality, the odds of a successful debate do-over so are about the same as space aliens from a planet in the Zeta Reticuli system abducting the orange tyrant before Nov. 5th.
This means there is only one way out: bowing out gracefully now and turning the torch over to Kamala. Be content that you did yeoman service staving off the Trump threat for nearly 4 years, but now it's time to turn the leaf over to a more energetic champion of freedom. This is unfair, but no one said battling the age demon is fair or easy. As Peggy Noonan wrote in her recent WSJ column (7/6/24, p. A13):
"Old age involves plateaus and plummets. It gets worse not better."
I have been a robust defender of yours on this blog for the past three years, but alas, the June 27th calamity discloses to me you are not the same Joe I defended even 4 months ago (State of the Union). The appearance in the debate last month was a shock and showed me that the downward polling is not going to end anytime soon. It would take an immediate - like before the weekend - debate with Trump in which you destroy him as much as he did you earlier. But let's face it that's not going to happen. So the best move now is to cut losses, and leave the race to younger champions.
Oh, and don't get distracted by the Trump reactionary media Right and all their horse shit about the Biden "coup" (e.g. WSJ today, 'Democrats Prepare for Biden Coup', 'Top Democrats Turn Screws On Biden' etc.) They know in their heart of hearts the best chance for the Trumpites to take over all branches of government and execute their 'Project 2025' is for you to stay in. They also recognize it's their best chance to finally obliterate your legacy especially the achievements of the past 4 years, e.g. infrastructure bill. Do not let these odious, lying fuckers do it. Remember they, e.g. WSJ, FOX, Newsmax etc. are the ones who've been ripping you apart the past two plus years, e.g.,
So why would these roaches now suddenly come to your defense? Well, because they see the 538 polling that you are losing in 6 of 7 battleground states which you won in 2020. And despite close national (popular vote) polling (43%- 41%), losing in 6 of 7 battlegrounds portends a landslide in the Electoral College. As Jonathan Karl noted on ABC this a.m. All of which shows it is time to pack it in. You've done your duty now let others do theirs.
As Rep. Jamie Raskin put it on All In Friday night - using a well understood baseball metaphor. Biden is in an analogous position to a starter in the 8th inning who's coming up to his 108th pitch and we know 110 pitches is about the limit in today's game. He's already lost some of his speed, the fastball now down to 89 mph from 96 mph and he's put two men on base. However, he still believes he can get the last two outs. Does the manager leave him in and perhaps let the game get away? Or put in a reliever who's fresh and has an assortment of pitches to draw on: fastball, sinker, slider, splitter etc.? The rational manager looking at the situation will put in the reliever. This is what we need now to avoid a calamity in November, which may well see the end of the American democracy experiment.
See Also:
Opinion | It’s Time for Democrats to Hold Hands and Jump - The New York Times (nytimes.com)
And:
And:
Obama tells allies Biden’s path to winning reelection has diminished
by Robert Becker | July 8, 2024 - 5:14am | permalink
Often it takes an unfolding process before the best and right choice emerges
Talk about not digging yourself out – by denying the size of the hole. Proposing that anxious voters should banish empirical evidence of frailty not only dooms Biden’s chances but jeopardizes an equal challenge: holding the Senate and retaking the House. To lose all three prompts Shakespearean tragedy.
Though Biden’s increasing flaws (and pressure for alternatives) are self-evident, how telling is it that Biden scoffs at calls to withdraw, thus further underlining for months the implicit WH cover-up.
If the debate weren’t bad enough, adding to Trump’s lead, the president’s rigid defiance belittles his own honest doubters, making a bad situation worse. As with cognition, time rolls on: taking too long to withdraw (or obstructing) will amplify party divisiveness beyond the nonsense that his deranged, more demented opponent spouts daily.
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