Tuesday, February 14, 2023

Latest Polls Do Not 'Undermine' Biden's Case For Running In '24 - Because Polls Are Not Logical Arguments


The latest news  (Many Democratic Voters Unsure on Biden , p. A4, yesterday ) in The Wall Street Journal, citing a recent poll from the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs "showing that 62% of Democrats didn’t want Mr. Biden to seek a second term"  is typical of the detachment from reality exhibited by American voters.  This is reinforced by the ancillary polling that showed:

 "in a hypothetical matchup of Mr. Biden and former President Donald Trump, 48% of overall voters in the Washington Post-ABC poll favored Mr. Trump, while 45% preferred Mr. Biden."


 That any higher percentage of voters could favor the psychotic sociopath Trump over Biden is itself damning as well as infuriating.  Also according to the piece, Julian Castro tweeted the poll results and stated that they:


"undermine Biden’s central argument for renomination.”


In fact they do nothing of the sort because poll results cannot undermine any such argument given they are not an argument themselves. They represent a highly subjective "guesstimate" of a swath of the electorate who may not even be thinking clearly at the time. (Many blinded by economic difficulties in their lives combined by the 24/7 blabbery of the cable news pundits, most of whom are useless).   I already noted the role of the media in these pathetic polls in an earlier post:



 I actually had thought Mr. Castro would be smarter than to tweet nonsense like that. But evidently he's not and still smarting from being bounced out of his 2020 campaign. But it's not just Castro. The WSJ piece also serves up a potpourri of voter comments, digging behind the poll results.  For example, one woman of 35 said she definitely believed Biden "too old, and he might have a stroke or something."  


Yep, and I might too, so what? No one knows when they might shuffle off this mortal coil.  But the point eluding her is that an untimely end could happen to any president and any number of them have died in office - some prematurely (JFK, William McKinley), others not (like FDR).  My point in the earlier post is embodied in this extract which I have not budged from:    


"Trump must be stopped at all costs, even if it means re-electing  an 82- year old Joe Biden.  That must be to preserve what's left of our democracy, and fuck the naysayers and nervous Nellies."


Going into the article in more detail, the issue seems to be a problem with fewer Dems than independents.  For example, Susan Rusch, 72, of Waukesha, Wis., said 


 I’m up in the air about it. The only thing that makes me unsure is his age. I do think it probably should be a younger person. But if he was a candidate I’d definitely vote for him.”  


Good thinking! Because Biden is definitely preferable to Donald Trump no matter which way you cut it.  I was also heartened to see the response of Cynthia Johnson, 67, a retired teacher, who stated:


To me, he’s the person who can relate on any level with anyone. I think it just comes natural for him, 


This is sensible, and what one expects from a voter in tune with reality.  Even more sensible is the take of Democratic pollster Jeff Horwit:


“There’s nothing he can do to change his age and every day he gets a day older.  What really does matter are these other qualities where he has taken a hit.”


  Which again elicits the question of why he has "taken a hit" and I submit it can be directly traced to the media framing of him as too old, or rickety, or not as sharp. Which is deplorable and ageist given how many other nations have elder leaders.  E.g.   


- Harald V, King of Norway, 85 yrs.

- Michael Aoun, President of Lebanon, 87 yrs.

- Paul Biya, President of Cameroon, 89 yrs.



But what most disturbed me was the polling tilt of independent voters toward Trump (in a Biden-Trump rematch) which was 50% to 41%.   I don't know what planet these independents inhabit but it can't be the same one I'm on, or else the pandemic and too much MJ candy and booze has turned their brains to mush. 


The other aspect is that most independents are actually "swing voters" who don't follow political news closely and are swayed mainly by transient external topics and emotions. Further they are more likely to imbibe derelict memes off social media. In particular, it is highly plausible that - without knowing Trump is currently under at least 6 investigations (including by special counsel Jack Smith) - they could mistake his feral, psychotic "energy" to be more desirable than Biden's calm, and sane sense of normality.  In this sense, NY Times' columnist Charles Blow offered one of the most trenchant takes last week:


"Biden as a calm, thoughtful antidote to the endless madness of Donald Trump has now become his greatest obstacle.  This as a public addicted to flash and theater draws back from his deliberativeness."


 Rachel Maddow,, in her show last night devoted the first segment to how Americans - too many- often see the creeping authoritarianism in other nations (like Hungary and Turkey) but are less able to detect it in their own.  In particular, how authoritarians' first precept is always to negate an independent judiciary. 


Of course, Trump is at the focus of all of this, as Maddow elucidates,  given his prior attacks on the free press and rigging our own judiciary, e.g.


by Joan McCarter | February 15, 2023 - 7:21am | permalink


This also echoed  and reinforced by his GOP election denier sycophants, i.e. to "defund the FBI" and investigate the DOJ for "weaponization of government".  In this regard, she expects to see more authoritarian attacks on our own judiciary as indictments of Trump loom - including a report Thursday from a Georgia grand jury.  See e.g.


Authoritarian style attacks on judiciary expected as potential Trump indictment looms (msnbc.com)



One  wishes that the swing voters who'd currently take Trump over Biden would finally wrap their heads around this.    We can only hope, if Trump does end up the Reep nominee, these indies come to their senses. 


See Also:


Ask Biden Not To Run Again? Sure, But Only IF Trump Doesn't!


And:


An Unfocused, Incompetent Corporo-Media Is Largely Responsible For The Awful Biden Ratings And Coverage


And:


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by Brandon Gage | February 20, 2023 - 8:03am | permalink

— from Alternet

Right-wing commentator Ann Coulter tore into former President Donald Trump on Saturday's edition of the conservative Timcast podcast.

"Well he's always known how to be a celebrity, right? Like that, that reminded me of the reality TV show aspect of Trump. Right? He knew, he knew..." host Lydia Smith began.

"I don't, I think you're giving him more – I don't even think it's knowing how to be – I think he is a narcissistic, I, I, I didn't – the one thing I didn't know when I wrote In Trump We Trust is how profoundly stupid he is. Um, I made very clear in the book the only thing he could do – we will forgive him for anything. And I defended him," Coulter recalled.

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by Jaime O’Neill | February 20, 2023 - 7:48am | permalink

Facebook is keeping track of my life, and I guess that's a good thing. Given my memory, it's mostly just gone with the wind (wasn't that a movie, or something?).

Yesterday, for instance, Facebook posted "memories" of things written by me or responded to by others in the past. What a revelation. And how remarkable it is that the more things change, the more they remain the same.

Here, for instance, are a couple of comments that came my way on Valentine's Day of 2018. It must have been something I said because I don't think I knew either of these respondees.

Anyway, on that day, someone I don't know named Tristan wrote: "I just call a spade a spade, TRAITOR. Maybe you should take your kids to a place where there is no right to own guns. Better that than starting a civil war over hostile intent to dismantle the constitution for free and independent people of north America."

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by Robert Reich | February 20, 2023 - 7:40am | permalink

— from Robert Reich's Substack

Friends,

I’m honoring Presidents’ Day by sharing with you some thoughts about Jimmy Carter, who is now in hospice care.

Carter’s administration marked the end of 45 years of democratic capitalism, whose goal had been to harness the private sector for the common good.

It’s important to understand what happened and why.

For years, the rap on President Carter has been that his presidency failed yet his post-presidency was the best in modern history.

This is way too simplistic.

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by Bella DeVaan | February 20, 2023 - 7:16am | permalink

— from Inequality.org

You might have heard about a certain French writer who visited the United States in 1831. Alexis de Tocqueville is an all-time emigre superstar, a beloved bard, and the author of Democracy in America.

One of Tocqueville's favorite things about our country then is something many of us would name today: Our generosity.

The Frenchman marveled at the Americans who came together to help one another, financially and socially, in voluntary associations—paying what he called a "self-tax for the common good" and showing "self-interest properly understood."

To historian Olivier Zunz, Tocqueville's "grasp of the relationship between interest and altruism remains essential." The notion that one's own well-being is inextricable from the well-being of one's community is what drives the generosity of Americans today.

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by Sonali Kolhatkar | February 20, 2023 - 6:51am | permalink

One of the things that new visitors to the United States learn—but often don't understand—is that they are expected to tip nearly every service worker they encounter. The most obvious tipping expectation is at restaurants and bars, where they must gift an additional 18-25 percent of their total bill to their waitstaff or bartender.

Taxi and rideshare drivers also expect tips, as do hotel bellhops and cleaning staff, as well as hair stylists, and even babysitters. Delivery drivers, in the age of online shopping, expect tips—but only those delivering food via such services as DoorDash, and not, say, your Amazon package deliverer, and certainly not your local postal worker bringing you your daily dose of junk mail.

Forget those who are new to the U.S.—the expectations about when to tip and how much to tip are bewildering even for those of us who have lived here our whole lives. There are detailed guides now for the confused consumer, such as New York magazine's explaining-and-shaming approach to tipping etiquette after the COVID-19 pandemic changed the rules of "polite society," while exhorting readers to accept the status quo: "It's just the rules; don't complain." Real Simple magazine recently issued a primer that billed itself as the "Ultimate Guide" for the confused tipper. "Tipping used to be about showing appreciation for good service," lifestyle writer Julie Vadnal says in the Real Simple article. "[B]ut as the minimum wage has plateaued (the federal minimum wage has been $7.25 since 2009), workers have come to depend on it." The federal government’s baseline wage for tipped workers is an unimaginably low $2.13 an hour.

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by Marc Ash | February 20, 2023 - 6:39am | permalink

— from Reader Supported News

At the recent Munich Security Conference in Germany Vice President Kamala Harris spoke forcefully and with conviction about crimes against humanity committed in Ukraine by Russian invaders, and the planners, directors and facilitators of their actions. Harris said in part:

"In the case of Russia's actions in Ukraine, we have examined the evidence. We know the legal standards and there is no doubt these are crimes against humanity … Let us be clear, Russian forces have pursued a widespread and systemic attack against a civilian population … Gruesome acts of murder, torture, rape, and deportation. Execution-style killings, beatings, and electrocution. Russian authorities have forcibly deported hundreds of thousands of people from Ukraine to Russia — including children."

There is no humanitarian relief organization in the Western World that would disagree. Perhaps the most cucial thing Harris said was,

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by Ted Rall | February 20, 2023 - 6:25am | permalink


[click image to enlarge]

Former South Carolina Governor and UN Ambassador Nikki Haley is running for the Republican presidential nomination. Aside from her personal issues around her betrayal of Trump, is the racist and sexist GOP ready to nominate a woman of color?

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And:




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