Monday, February 13, 2023

Sorry, UFO fans, Those Unidentifieds Were Not Alien Craft

The takedown of a fourth unidentified flying object yesterday stirred up even more hyper-reactions. These included Rep. Jim Himes (Conn.), the ranking Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, who went ballistic after the second and third objects were shot down in remote areas off the northern coast of Alaska and over Canada’s Yukon territory. After the third UFO was  described by Canadian authorities as cylindrical Himes warned the lack of information "could quickly lead to public anxiety and wild speculation about alien invasions."

The fourth UFO (Sunday) was described as "unlikely to be a balloon" and octagonal in shape. It was initially announced in a pair of tweets from Michigan lawmakers. Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) said the object was “downed” by pilots from the U.S. Air Force and National Guard. She said in a tweet that she learned about the latest object from the Defense Department and “that all parties have been laser-focused on it from the moment it traversed our waters.”

So what gives here, with the spate of  Unidentified Objects - or more exactly (and completely) - unidentified flying objects?  It is useful first to consult the most comprehensive definition ever given for a UFO, by Prof. J. Allen Hynek, from his book: UFOs: A Scientific Inquiry:


“A UFO is the reported perception of an object or light seen in the sky, the appearance, trajectory and general dynamic behavior of which do not suggest a logical, conventional explanation and which is not only mystifying to the original percipients but remains unidentified, after close scrutiny of all available evidence by persons who are technically capable of making a common sense identification, if one were possible.”  


The fact is that the set of  recent "UFOs" tracked and shot down are not likely any extraterrestrial craft for several reasons:


- Actual alien craft - or what I surmise to be such (e.g. the objects sighted by Nazy pilots, e.g.


 https://youtu.be/Ce6ZevfbIK0 


Have control of such incredible dynamics that they need not worry about slow human jets (or human wits) catching them, far less shooting one down.  Ain't gonna happen.


- Following the hysteria over the Chinese spy balloon, e.g.  


With Chinese 'Spy Balloon' Hysteria In US of A Maybe It's Good The Aliens Keep Their Craft Mostly Hidden


there is no way actual aliens would risk encounters with a bunch of paranoid Earthers now triggered to shoot first and ask questions later.


-  The basic descriptions of the three recent objects shot down thus far don't match any of the true UAP reported by Navy (e.g. Nimitz pilots) which literally can run rings around our military aircraft.


-  The admission that NORAD has now "adjusted its radar filters" means that lesser (smaller)  objects of any type will now be detected, and that seems to be just what has happened.  There are more unidentified objects in the skies because there is more focused radar power now manning the skies.


Even Luis Elizondo, the military intelligence officer who ran the Pentagon’s U.F.O. program until 2017, concurred that more "UFOs" are being detected simply because of increased (radar) vigilance. This followed political blowback because the Reeps went ape shit over the Chinese spy balloon while trying to show their MAGA macho creds. See e.g. 



Biden still knew he had to up the ante by demanding radar enhancement of all bogeys as well as shoot downs.  Never mind most of the stuff taken out so far are more in the line of simple meteorological devices with no ominous attributes to note.  This from the WSJ news section after the recent flap:


Balloons have a range of scientific and commercial applications, people in the industry say. In the field of astrobiology, balloons study microorganisms called magnetotactic bacteria that live in the atmosphere and can endure extreme conditions.

World View Enterprises Inc., a Tucson, Ariz., company that says it has launched more than 120 high-altitude balloon missions in the last decade, rigs balloons with cameras to inspect natural-gas and oil pipelines and sensors to sniff the atmosphere for traces of gases.

NASA and research agencies from several other West-ern nations also operate massive research balloons that spend several weeks circling the globe in the stratosphere at altitudes of up to 120,000 feet. These balloons can give vital information about atmospheric conditions and chemistry that drones or high-altitude aircraft can’t obtain.


 So I'm not particularly worried. In the end I suspect the remains of the "UFOs" will disclose one or more entries from the above subset of IFOs. On the other hand, some balloons may indeed be aerial pests. For years even small fry adversaries "have sent low-tech gadgets into the skies above the U.S."  according to. Elizondo.  But that doesn't mean all are dire threats, or even a minuscule fraction of them.


Still, as Elizondo noted,  the Biden administration must find a way to balance vigilance over actual threats against “chasing our tail” whenever something unknown shows up.  Which is admittedly "a tough task" given the Reeptards react to everything now.

Contrary to what some folks may believe, tracking  UFOs or UAPs is not all about finding aliens or alien artifacts. Unknown objects in American airspace could pose national security or safety risks and that's why there needs to be attention paid to them.  It isn't so much exercising sovereignty as ensuring safety of the inhabitants of the surveilled country.  That includes keeping the skies safe for commercial aircraft traversing their sundry routes.  And let's further note that dispatching "spy balloons" isn't a one way street, e.g.

China Says U.S. Sent Balloons Into Its Airspace

Last summer, the All-Domain Anomaly Resolution Office (AARO) was created under the Department of Defense to aid in the study of UAPs, and the office coordinated with the ODNI for the new report.  The purpose is to implement a major step toward ensuring the safety aspect, including how normal aircraft might avoid collisions with potential UAP in their flight paths.

Still there is a fine line between exercising due diligence over what's up there and what it's doing and going batshit nuts over every unidentified "hobby" craft, i.e.  that may only have nuisance value to the rascals who sent it.  Or in Mr. Elizondo's words:

What’s happening now is you have low-end technology being used to harass America,” 

But that doesn't mean reacting to everything, including wasting resources on jets chasing nuisance objects.  "Unidentifieds" that never would have been detected had radar screening not been refined.  Still that doesn't mean WSJ troll Holman Jenkins Jr is on target when he scribbles(Chinese Spy Balloons and the UFO Obfuscation):

"For five years, the public heard UFO, UFO, UFO. A succession of high-ranking officials delighted the media with hints about uncannily advanced technology when they already knew the culprit was probably or certainly China. They knew the technology represented no significant advancement over off-the shelf drone and lighter-than-air expertise widely available in the world."

Sorry, dope, not ALL UFOs are made in China!  On that note let's hope Holman is soon able to raise his UFO I.Q.  In the meantime, rest easy my droogs, there are no alien craft amidst these recent "unidentifieds".


See Also:

Three objects shot down over U.S., Canada may be ‘benign’ - The Washington Post

And:

California UFO Scare Shows More People Need To Bone Up On Sky Objects

And:

Why Harvard's Top Astronomer (Avi Loeb) Is Wrong About UFOs - And Indeed Is Doing UFO Research Himself

And:

No, Not A Good Idea To Try To Bounce Radio Waves Off A Possible Alien Artifact

4 comments:

none said...

Not for a post. Is your scientific critique of Lisle et. al 2004 published in a place that it can be read more carefully and referenced?

Copernicus said...

I am not sure what you mean by "referenced" and "read more carefully". Both posts on Jason Lisle - from July 22, 2011, contain references including his DVD 'The Young Sun" as well as the pages of his Ph.D. dissertation, as well as his published paper and the fact Lisle himself contradicts his 'Young Sun' assertion in his Ph.D.! (Introduction). Not to mention his Ap. J. paper 'Persistent North-South Alignment of the Supergranulation'. So the post contains all the references one would need or want imho. At this late stage - 12 years hence- there is really no external "authoritative' or independent source that would publish the content.

Anonymous said...

I am looking for a published version of your critique, beyond the blog post.

Copernicus said...

Ok, I did find two published critiques of Lisle's work, but from his "young Earth, young Sun' perspective. The links are:

i) https://biologos.org/articles/light-matters-a-response-to-jason-lisle?gclid=Cj0KCQiAxbefBhDfARIsAL4XLRqZRuMuqL1te9rt07VcgMFQHyQQBQA3LXfONmr24QmZzBRm6Ugc8EQaAugkEALw_wcB

And:

ii) https://freethinkingministries.com/an-evidentialist-review-of-jason-lisles-the-ultimate-proof-of-creation/


There is also a Rational Wiki criticism:

https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Jason_Lisle

There are, alas, no published journal articles or books that I have been able to find. Hope the above helps. I suspect few have gone into his PH.D. dissertation (which I had to pay to get) or his Ap. J paper as I did, or found the investment of time worthwhile - which is why published scientific critiques are scant.