Monday, June 4, 2018

The Insanity Of Pursuing Longevity and Questionable End of Life Treatments, Endless "Wellness"

My brother Mike's death over the weekend highlighted again an issue we all must face: when or whether to finally call it quits and pull the plug - as it were- on any further treatments. In Mike's case his oncologist informed him-  soon after the diagnosis of stage IV liver cancer-  he could keep him alive an "extra few months" by use of radiation plus chemo, "but there would be side effects."  Mike wanted nothing of it, and said flatly 'No!' Further,  he delivered his DNR (do not resuscitate) form for when the final showdown arrived.

It did less than two weeks ago when he was barely able to eat more than a few spoonfuls of chicken broth.   He had no appetite at all and had already lost more than forty pounds in a few weeks.  He also said that if eating less meant speeding the end, as he'd heard or read, he'd certainly do it.  Saturday night was the end, as his daughter Ciara described his last minutes for us in a twenty minute phone call.  Apart from some last minute "flailing" - likely from not enough oxygen to his brain, he died peacefully.

Mike's death brought into focus my own battle with prostate cancer, with the most recent PSA at 2.7 (from a nadir of 2.0 last June) but the critical free PSA still sitting at 4.1%.  That low free value is not good news as it still translates to a 70 percent or more probability of the cancer still there.

After the results went to UCHealth in Aurora, the NP, Kristen, tried to talk me into getting another biopsy and also even a 2nd focal cryotherapy. I said no way, especially as I'd had three administrations of general anesthesia in the past two years which have left my memory with holes galore. See e.g.

http://brane-space.blogspot.com/2017/07/dealing-with-memory-loss-after-general.html

 So I wanted no more invasive procedures that would necessitate general anesthesia. In fact, I didn't even want another invasive biopsy. The most I agreed to is another MRI if and when the PSA doubled from its nadir.  I also am disinclined to take any of the drugs, e.g. Lupron - that wreak havoc with cognitive capacity or cause depression. As I put it to her, what's the point of adding five or ten more years if they're going to be spent as a brain-addled vegetable?

This all brings to mind two recent books by different authors seeking to bring some semblance of sanity and rational discourse to the longevity, end of life debate, and keeping the wellness fetishism at bay. Indeed, in respect of this I've already pointed out the vast sums spent to keep patients alive, often against their will and dodging their DNR orders. (See the book, The Nurses, for more on this).

A provocative article by Josh Zepps, appearing at salon.com two years ago, points out the problem:

“Medicare costs more than $500 million per annum, 30 percent of which is spent on the five percent of beneficiaries who die each year. One third of that is spent on the final month of life. The final month. I mean, you want to talk about priorities, let’s just take that one datum. More than $50 million each year spent on the final month of life.”

Zepps is correct about the magnitude of Medicare spending in the final months of life. But I believe that is the fault of the medical establishment and its specialist practitioners. This is based on not leveling with severely infirm elderly people regarding limits of additional treatments and their real costs vs. benefits.. Missing in most treatment discussions, for example, is any reference to quality of life .The focus is exclusively on quantity and that also often comes with huge medical costs. Missing "the talk" is it any wonder older patients tend to believe medical treatments can offer curative solutions rather than only palliative ones?

What can be done? Author Barbara Ehrenreich ('Natural Causes: An Epidemic Of Wellness, The Certainty Of Dying, And Killing Ourselves to Live Longer')  has a decidedly curmudgeon's point of view which is necessary amidst all the circulating happy talk,  medical codswallop.

“Old age isn’t a battle,” Ehrenreich (also author of "Nickel And Dimed")  says, quoting the late Philip Roth, “old age is a massacre.” In the past few years, Ehrenreich has given up on screenings and scans, but that's not because she is lazy or suicidal. At 76, she just considers herself old enough to die.  Like me, she takes the attitude that no one of sanity, or any degree of rationality,  ought to be jumping onto the academic longevity bandwagon and aspiring to live to 160 or some similar nonsense.

 To her, aging is “an accumulation of disabilities”, which no amount of physical activity or rigorous self-denial can prevent. Hence, she takes all the self-help books aimed at her age group  with a grain of salt.  These include books spouting the usual balderdash:   “active aging”, “productive aging”, “anti-aging”, even “reverse-aging”, with a long life promised to anyone who makes an effort, regardless of factors such as genetics or poverty.  No surprise this unhealthy obsession with wellness fantasies is enriching these wannabe prophets and peddlers, e.g.  of schmaltz smoothies (for heightened wellness) to almost Trumpian wealth.  Hell, they're making more $$ than Trump with his Trump University con.

But - like me - if she has symptoms, she’ll have them investigated, at least in a first pass. But when a doctor tells her there could be an undetected problem of some kind and more tests are needed, she refuses to play along. What exactly makes her more percipient and wise to the wellness and extending health cons than most people?

In the 1960s, Ehrenreich had worked on immune cells as a Ph. D. student, specifically on those known as “macrophages”, and had come to think of them as friends – frontline defenders against microbial invaders.  Much more research instead  exposed them as traitors, including showing how they could become "biological double agents" for their role in cancer and autoimmune diseases. Hence, one of her basic "wellness" beliefs was shattered early and with it all the associated hokum delusionary twaddle. . If one's body can attack itself, then why bother trying to look after it? At least to any assiduous, extreme extent?

Overdiagnosis has become an epidemic. Bone density scans, dental x-rays, mammograms, colonoscopies, CT scans: she questions them all. Preventive medical care, in the US at least, has become a lucrative industry. Many doctors profit financially from the tests and procedures they recommend. And celebrity-driven campaigns for more screening increase the demand. People are being made sick in the pursuit of wellness.

Coming at the issue from a different direction is 37 year old Kate Bowler, author of Everything Happens For A Reason and Other Lies I've Loved. That title acknowledges that nothing at all - in terms of people's fates - need happen for a reason. One moment you may be walking peacefully down the street and the next a large scaffolding falls down and kills you. Yes, there may be lurking reasons in the fact the scaffolding was loosened and the law of gravity did the rest. But not that it would have struck you at the exact right time and place to kill you.  Same thing with a large tree falling on your house during a severe storm - crashing through the roof - and taking out one or more family members in their beds. Ditto with driving down a road when all of a sudden a large sinkhole opens up and you perish.

So, in many ways, as Prof. Bowler learned, life is a crap shot, such as after she learned she had Stage 4 colon cancer. And such as after my youngest brother learned he had stage 4 liver cancer. Bowler's colon cancer especially is something no 37 year old ought to remotely worry over, since screenings, colonoscopies usually aren't recommended until at least 45 or 50..   The greater irony is that Bowler had spent ten years - according to a WSJ review piece ('The False God Of Wellness', May 23, p. A13) studying the bogus American "prosperity" gospel, i.e. God "rewards the faithful with health and wealth" and lays diseases and calamities on the unbelievers and sinners.

Of course, this is rubbish. Any person of average intelligence scanning a given day's headlines in the papers can prove to himself this is errant nonsense to which only a fool would give credence. But in the land of perpetual optimists there are plenty of fools willing to believe it, as it gives them a sense of exception and some comfort. But as Prof. Bowler learned, it's all a thin veneer of fantasy.

Particularly objectionable for any cancer patient is to hear the constant martial refrains - often from well meaning people (including on survivor sites) - to "do battle" with the disease. Why?  If indeed Ehrenreich's theory is correct one's own immune system can "aid and abet"   the proliferation of the disease. So, one's own body become an ally of the cancer.   In Ms. Bowler's case, as the WSJ review article noted, she tired of hearing she had to "battle" the cancer and soon grasped this bollocks was merely an extension of the prosperity gospel of proto-Calvinist loons and buffoons. Amid the exhortations to be an "optimistic warrior" she realized she was tempted to partake in the prosperity bilge once more.  So she'd deserve a "full life" as wife and mother in exchange for her godly devotion, or in this case total optimistic faith in current medicine for a positive outcome..

Then dousing the fantasies she grasps (ibid.):

"One moment I was a regular person with regular problems, and the next I was someone with cancer."

Which is exactly how it is when you get the confirmed cancer diagnosis. There then follows listening to all the medical blabber of treatments and life extension possibilities from them, which gives the illusion of control. But, of course, as Ehrenreich notes, this can only be a total illusion if one's own immune system is at the core of the cancer and one's enemy.   As for Bowler, she describes control as a "drug that has us all hooked".  Indeed, and I admit falling for it too after the focal cryotherapy treatment last June and being assured the cancer was totally frozen out since it was "localized".

So I asked the UCHealth NP: Why has it seemed to come back? 'Well, it happens!'  Perhaps, but perhaps you guys never had it as much  under control as you assumed!

Even if we adhere to the most judicious diets and avoid all meats, alcohol, smokes etc. there is absolutely no assurance of continued wellness to the point of escaping all diseases such as cancer. And even if one manages to add years via saintly diets, they may not be years of life quality.  I can cite examples from my own extended family .Janice's cousin Desmond hardly ever touched animal fats over 80 years - no bacon, no burgers, no steaks  None of that. He also didn't smoke and drank only on rare (celebratory) occasions.. He was the full embodiment of the healthy, low BMI,  80 -year old male-  until he got Alzheimer's at the age of 83 and went downhill from there. Having to be kept in a special nursing facility with astounding expenses paid for by his family estate.  When we visited him for the last time he barely recognized us and had the vocabulary of a babbling two year old.

Would it not have been better in retrospect for Desmond to have gorged on animal fats, smokes etc. to spare him the indignity of his later lengthy decline as well as expenses?   You tell me.  Mike, by contrast, ate what he wanted ('Five Guys' burgers was a favorite place) and drank a  six pack of beer each night in his early days.  He also smoked like a trooper just like my other two now deceased brothers.  The commonality? All three died rather rapidly - no long stretches of decline with enormous medical bills or more treatments to stay alive.

According to a paper ( Death and Taxes: Why Longer Lives Cost  Money)  produced by the UK Institute of Economic Affairs:

"Despite the costs associated with the ageing population, it is sometimes claimed that people who are at risk of premature mortality due to lifestyle factors are a ‘drain on the taxpayer’. Smokers, drinkers and the obese, in particular, are blamed for rising costs to the general taxpayer.

These claims do not stand up against evidence. If one looks at the lifetime costs to all public services, it is clear that the ‘longevity-related’ costs of healthier people are considerably higher than the ‘lifestyle-related’ costs of less healthy people. Acute healthcare costs are usually higher, long-term healthcare costs are invariably higher, and welfare costs (eg. pensions) are vastly higher
."


The IEA paper goes on to elaborate:

:"In recent decades, healthier lifestyles and longer lifespans have been associated with a rise in the number of years spent in poor health. There has been a rise in the number of people suffering from chronic and non-fatal conditions which are often expensive to treat and manage. Medical science and healthier living do not eradicate the costs of disability and disease, they merely postpone them and pave the way for more expensive non-fatal conditions amongst very old people."

Whether one wishes to admit it or not, therefore, practicing healthy living or eating habits could merely be postponing massive, exploding medical costs until later as the IEA paper suggests.

Of course, no one - certainly not me - is advocating deliberate, dedicated consumption of high fatty foods, like the constant diet of Kentucky Fried Chicken that ultimately did in former child star Tommy Rettig  at the age of 54.  What we are saying is that one ought to be able to enjoy his food, even if those choices lean to burgers, the occasional steak and hot dogs, without being made to feel like a health spending criminal.  The reason is that it is actually the healthy eating zealots whose longer lives add the bulk of medical costs over time.  Maybe, indeed, we should strive more for a balanced quality of life - which includes eating what we wish up to a point - than emulating an abstemious monk.

And it is also plausible the wellness addicted zealots and those seeking ever more life extending treatments are driving our medical system into the dirt. Maybe the next time the wise-ass doc tells us: "Sorry, but you only have four months to live...unless you …."

We retort: "Thanks, doc, I am okay with that!"

Newsflash: FBI Agents Don't Do'Trick Dancing With Guns! (Or Trick Dancing,Period!)


Idiot FBI agent tries to show off dance moves and drops his gun - which then goes off and hits a bystander when he tries to grab it.

In a sickening spectacle of stupidity yesterday, we beheld an "off duty FBI agent" doing a dance trick at a Denver night club when the idiot's gun fell out of his pocket. He then quickly tried to retrieve it, realizing his rank imbecility, and it went off - hitting a bystander in the leg. Do effing morons like this joker really exist in the FBI? Even now when the agency is under so much scrutiny from the Dotard claimed "spygate" nonsense and double dealing with the Steele Dossier. 

In the words of former agent Ron Hosko:

"This is an unintended, unwelcome black eye for the FBI"

Indeed, and it has almost the same level of deplorable optics as CDC personnel losing track of anthrax, smallpox and other bugs several years ago. It shows, in other words, a clown car picture that is the farthest thing from a serious, sober investigative entity.    You can see the clown in action here:

https://www.cnn.com/2018/06/03/us/dancing-fbi-agent-gun-discharge/index.html

FBI officials Sunday declined to discuss what happened  just after midnight Saturday morning at Mile High Spirits, 2201 Lawrence St.,  and they have not identified the agent. But he’s been seen on a 32-second video clip dancing like a drunken monkey in front of appreciative onlookers and performing a back flip. Then we behold a muzzle flash as he grabs his fallen pistol, and Voila! - a spectator gets hit in the leg and has to be rushed to the ER.

Hopefully,  the FBI clown dancer is prepared to pay for  the wounded guy's hospital bills.  As a source of embarrassment to the agency this incident - which has now been seen by millions - is literally unparalleled. The fact a goofball agent isn't even capable of keeping his firearm secured is indeed one of the most glaring unforced PR  errors ever. 

Needless to say, this buffoon merits no second chances and he needs to be fired from the agency, cut loose like a diseased dog, asap. He is no longer worth the price of the liability he is. And that's assuming he now doesn't face charges by local (Denver) authorities for his reckless act. At the least, wanton discharge of a weapon in a public place, despite being an "accident".

Naturally, FBI officials declined to reveal any policy governing off-duty agents who carry guns.  But it seems to this observer that if the agency is rational and adheres to a sober policy, it absolutely forbids off duty agents doing trick dancing while packing heat.  Just my opinion, I could be wrong.

Sunday, June 3, 2018

In Memoriam - My Youngest Brother Mike


Mike and wife Gerri, in November, 2014, after cleaning up my mom's grave site in Punta Gorda, FL. Gerri died in April last year of congestive heart failure.


Mike, left, and yours truly on Dec.25, 1956.  Above, Mike's blog image. One of his last posts was a guest entry (Feb. 18th) on my blog.

The phone call came in at a quarter to midnight last night from the daughter of my youngest brother Mike(age 64) that he had passed away in the Port Charlotte hospice he'd been in for the past week. I'd known since the end of April that Mike had been battling stage IV liver cancer.  He'd first become worried after a rapid loss of weight (10 lbs.)  that he'd  first brought to the attention of his VA PCP..  Meanwhile, by early April, this VA primary care physician became concerned by his last liver enzymes test- with all the numbers way too high.

A visit to the ER on April 24 - after experiencing extreme pain in the upper abdomen-  resulted in the ER attending   "feeling a 'lump' in the right abdominal area". 

A   subsequent CT-scan with contrast showed  "a mass of cancerous -like spots" .  But the doctors wanted further tests, namely a liver biopsy, to confirm what they suspected.   The problem was that when the VA PCP submitted the order for a biopsy the VA officialdom nixed it. They informed  Mike and the VA doc that in their (VA) opinion "it was not an immediate, life-threatening condition".  Mike informed me of this in an email and I told him to screw the VA and just use his Medicare to get the biopsy done, even if he had to shell out 20 percent of costs (he had no Medicare supplement).

He did so and the results came  back -  for the worst -  by May 3rd. They showed that he had inoperable liver cancer with tumors throughout the organ. By then Mike had dropped nearly 45 pounds and was barely able to eat  "a few bites of scrambled egg" at a time.  He sent several photos by email, each showing more and more weight loss. By now he also opted to go in for hospice care, which his Medicare approved. This was given the oncologist had given him only 1-2 months to live at most.

When I last spoke to him on the phone two weeks ago, he was barely able to move, to get up or walk and had to wear a Foley catheter, also had the hospice nurse coming in three times a week. A week later, he needed a level of care he was unable to get even at home.

 Make no mistake that my youngest brother and I diverged and disagreed on almost every  conceivable topic and issue for two brothers related by blood. And this was even more than I differed from my middle brother Jerome (who died of a burst abdominal aneurysm in August, 2016) and my second brother John (who died in May, 2013 of  congestive heart failure).

For example, Mike was a hard core NRA member and  gun owner (I already noted his February 18 guest post on Brane Space) as well as a firm believer in Trump and his agenda. We had actually been blog enemies for a while, and "Pastor Mike" via his  "atheist registry",  drew national attention back in 2010, e.g.
https://www.mediaite.com/online/florida-pastor-calls-for-an-atheist-registry-media-points-and-laughs/

But by November, 2014, and after my mom's death, he  had a true  "come to Jesus" moment and dropped the harsh evangelism.  Indeed, he had sent me an apology via email for all the atheist attacks he'd committed for years - including blog posts with photo-shopped images of all my friends, as well as Richard Dawkins, Stephen Hawking et al in "hell".

Mike was a committed conservative, and we disagreed on much more than we agreed on, but he will be sorely missed, especially in the spirited exchanges we've had in recent years.  He is survived by daughter Ciara and son Dylan, as well as by me and sister, Jo-Marie (with whom both of us have been incommunicado since 2014). He will be cremated then his remains buried at military cemetery in Punta Gorda, FL with Marine Guards in attendance and a folded flag to be given to Ciara.

Rest in Peace, Mike. Perhaps you'd have lived longer had the VA been more on the ball!

Saturday, June 2, 2018

The Dark Side Of That Unemployment Report: A Labor Shortage Leaving Many Businesses Adrift

Image may contain: one or more people, people standing and food
Crabbers, e.g. crab processors, at a plant in Maryland. Most MD crab processing businesses are critically short of workers - thanks to Trump's draconian immigration controls, and his miserly "lotto" program for issuing H2B visas.

The glowing unemployment report released yesterday -  only 3.8 percent unemployment,  or the lowest seasonally adjusted rate in nearly 17 years  -  which naturally has Trump bragging and exaggerating.  The truth, however, is that his draconian immigration policies - especially to do with H2B visas and available foreign guest workers - have many businesses in near panic.  And we haven't even gotten to his 25 %  steel tariffs, enacted against allies like Canada, the EU and Mexico yet.

Let's get it out right now: This nation's economic growth - which Donnie J. Dotard so often brags about, especially the stock market  - is on the verge of circling he drain thanks to his tight- fisted, even cruel immigration -labor policies.  From home construction, to agricultural crops (harvesting) to landscaping, to wait staff and cooks, the nation is reeling from a lack of enough workers.

WSJ columnist Gerald Seib ('Immigration Debate Misses Economic Reality',  May 22, p. A4) summarizes the issues nicely:

"The American birthrate has slowed dramatically...hitting a thirty year low. At the same time, Alaska fisheries, New Hampshire restaurants, and Maryland crab processors all say they are critically short of workers. Farmers say they need thousands more workers and some production is moving overseas for lack of labor.   There are 6.6  million job openings in the U.S. which means for the first time in history there are enough openings to provide a job for every unemployed person in the country."

One of the largest, emerging unemployed contingents is the legion of new college grads. But ...will they take the jobs available? Say in construction, landscaping, agriculture, short order cooks at restaurants or even janitors there?  I doubt it, which perhaps others also know given the op-ed piece  by Tyler Bonin appearing on Tuesday (WSJ,  'My Advice To Grads: Start Mopping', A17) admonishing new grads:

 "There is a time to be bold but also a time for humility. A task once considered beneath you could be the key to your success.Do the job nobody wants, because believe it or not, somebody appreciates it. Volunteer to learn and to provide value to others."

Of course, the new grads' student loan schedule and amounts to be paid off may be a tad more than a $10 an hour job mopping floors at Safeway can provide.    But let's get real, the spectrum and number of jobs going begging is far in excess of what all this year's college grads could fill.

In Thursday's WSJ  ('Housing Shortage Shadows Rural Areas', p. A3) we read, for example,  how the labor shortage, especially in construction, is adversely affecting new home starts. Hence,  if the housing supply remains low it means the demand will continue to drive up prices. (Like here on the front range in Colorado, with the median home price in Denver now $529,000.)  We further learn, e.g. for a town in Ohio:

"The labor shortage is so bad  that the chamber of commerce goes from town to town to recruit workers."

With one member noting: :"The fear is that if we don't solve this in some way we're going to lose big employers."

Even the WSJ editorial writers entered the fray three days ago ('A Miserly 15,000 More Visas')   referencing how the  H2B visas "allows businesses to hire foreign guest workers for busy seasons" and congress had given the Trump  administration  authority to issue as many as 69,000 more visas to meet employer needs.

And yet the Department of Homeland Security has handed out "a mere 15,000 extra H2B visas this summer."

Adding:

"The 15,000 won't come close to meeting the demands across the country from resorts, fisheries, landscapers and restaurants among many other industries."

The most choice aspect was the editor's reference to the Trump "restrictionists" who claim "more foreign busboys or crab pickers will replace Americans when employers can't come close to finding enough Americans."

In other words, the dumb Trumpies are - as the Journal notes - seeking to protect mythical American jobs (i.e. that Americans won't take) at the expense of business viability and economic growth, e.g.

"Mr Trump says he wants the economy to grow by 4 percent or more but it won't happen if employers can't find enough workers."

This isn't just  aimless conjecture either. In the case of Maryland crabbers, we've learned for the first time the demand for crab processors in eastern Maryland was so high that the "U.S. had to award them by lottery". ('Crab Country Craves More Visas', WSJ,  May 12-13, p. A3).   The problem? Under this absurd system some companies - like G.W. Hall - got all the workers they requested, but other companies got zilch, zero, none.   In the words of Bryan Hall, quoted in the piece, referring to another owner:

"It's not right for me to have the girls and not him" referring to Russel Hall owner Harry Phillips.

The farm labor shortage is just as critical,  as reported in the WSJ editorial 'Exporting Jobs Instead of Food' (May 18, p. A14), e.g.

"The farm labor shortage is growing more serious as the overall U.S. jobless rate falls. The Labor Department says about half of the 1.2 million or so workers employed in agriculture are undocumented and if they were deported the shortage would become a crisis.."

The editorial concluded that the "U.S. farm labor shortage is driving production overseas,"

The labor dearth is equally parlous for construction. As per a Denver Post piece (May 13, 'Help Wanted As Applicants Are Scarce', p. 8B):. Quoting Michael Smith who runs the Colorado Homebuilding Academy:

"We've got a labor shortage. Labor is not keeping up with the change in the demand, unfortunately."

The need for more construction workers becomes self-evident when it is realized that by 2025 there will be approximately 100,000 open positions in construction and special trades but barely one fourth of the workers to fill them. Most of the projected open positions are driven by the population explosion along the front range with many would-be Denver residents  now looking to Colorado Springs for homes (and a long, e.g. 65 minute, commute).

What about getting native born Americans to get out there and get their hands dirty? (The Labor Dept. and DHS insist if employers in the short- staffed areas pay more, more Americans will take the jobs. Personally, I doubt it.)

One Maine employer - Bob Smith, owner of Sebasco Harbor Resort in Phillipsburg, quoted in the Denver Post 4 days ago, said:

"People say you should give these jobs to Americans. If you can find 'em then that's great. The only Americans we can find to do the work right now are in Puerto Rico."  (As U.S. citizens Puerto Ricans face no travel restrictions so can work wherever and as long as they want.)

On learning of all this, Janice fumed, asking why the hell enough Americans can't be found for the jobs going begging - from crabbers in Maryland to construction workers in Denver.. "You mean to tell me there are no able -bodied guys to do this work?"  Not really, hon!

Look, college grads are not  running up to Baltimore to process crabs nor are they going to go for construction jobs in Denver or Miami. And they certainly aren't going to California to help harvest oranges, prunes or whatever.  They believe, having shelled out tens of thousands for college, they are at least entitled to an indoor, office job complete with a/c even if it is done as a temp or volunteer. Especially if they had the likes of Sting (at Brown) or Hillary (at Yale College) delivering the commencement address.

Older workers are also out of the work game, like the two of us. As William Galston noted in his own WSJ piece three days ago ('Can America Grow Like It Used To?'):

"Two thousand was the last year in which the entire baby boom generation was of prime working age, and 2019 will be the first year in which none of it is. ...American men experienced the largest decline in labor participation rate of any OECD country."

Adding:

"There is no sign of a new baby boom on the horizon"

This despite Galston trying to make the case to "raise the aggregate level of work in our society."

Not even mentioned yet are the million or so (estimated) young folks who have joined the F.I.R.E. ('Financial independence, retire early') movement, aiming to cash out their chips, cubes and lockers by the age of 40 - to go globe trotting, or write blogs.  (I will have a special post next week on this movement, and how these ambitious young Turks plan to achieve that early retirement).

The point is, with all these labor participation subtractions, no economy can grow unless there are compensating additions. If it isn't coming via new births (irrelevant since these workers are needed now) then it must come via immigration. And yet the reactionary Trump bunch are cutting their noses to spite their faces. As Gerald Seib pointed out (ibid.) they are now cutting the LEGAL immigration numbers as well as the illegal, by as much as "260,000 slots per year or 25 percent".  Seib quotes the Cato Institute:

"This would be the largest policy driven reduction in legal, immigration since the racially motivated acts of the 1920s."

Galston, Seib and the WSJ editorial writers are in agreement that the fruit of this misplaced, ignorant policy position - based on bigotry - will only wreak economic havoc and dislocation as well as much lower growth,  possibly even recession. Trump should enjoy his high stock market for now, because it won't last much longer.  Especially, after he's now also declared a trade war with our allies including the EU, Canada, Mexico -  by slapping a 25 percent tariff on steels and 10 % on aluminum -  using a national security pretext.

Don't think this is any kind of biggie? Check out yesterday's WSJ 'Business and Investment' section (p. B9) on how these tariffs are roiling shares of manufacturing stocks. This is given that those companies will be most sensitive to the tariff retribution of the targeted nations- -when it comes. And it surely will: Canada is set to impose a $12.8b hit starting on July 1st.

Trump, aka Dotard, can boast all he wants of his "terrific" unemployment numbers, but as we see, he is still capable of self-destruction (including of his base) by shooting from the hip in reactive measures (via trade tariffs and immigration policies)  that are not conducive to this country's economic well being.

Friday, June 1, 2018

Selected Questions -Answers From All Experts Astronomy Forum (Model Planet And Moon Orbits)

Question -

Hello
I am designing a planetary system and want a moon to orbit a planet in
such a way that, when it is viewed from the surface of the planet, the
moon is seen as stationary in the sky.(Moons orbital period is same as
planetary rotational period) I believe this is called an acentric orbit?
How do I go about determining the mass/distance relationship?  It is my
intention to have two moons, one behind the other, both stationary as seen
from the planets surface.  Can this be done?

Answer:


The type of orbit that you described, with the moon (or satellite)
stationary in the sky with respect to position on the planet, is called
'geostationary'.

The first thing you need to do, is to obtain or set the mass (M) for your
planet. This is so you can get its acceleration of gravity, g.

You also want to know the radius (r) of your planet.

If you know M, and r, then:

g = (G M)/ r 2

where G is the universal constant of gravitation, or

G = 6.7 x 10 -11  (note that this is the value compatible with using metric
units of meters for r, and kilograms or kg for M).

Thus, in the case of the Earth, for which M = 6 x 10 24 kg, and r = 6.4 x
10 6 m, we have:

  g = [(6.7 x 10 -11 ) (6 x 10 24 )]/ (6.4 x 10 6) 2

which you can check on any good multi-function calculator, and which will
be found to be g = 9.8 m/s2  approx.

For a geo-stationary condition, the distance R of a moon or satellite from
the CENTER of the planet is:

R = {[g* (r 2)*T 2]/
4p 2 } 1/3

where all the quantities are as defined above, and T is the period of your
planet - in seconds- to make one rotation. (Note that the whole quantity
is raised to the 1/3 power, e.g. the cube root)

We can use
p  = 3.14

 Let's apply it to the case of the Earth, for reference:

R = {[(9.8)* (6.4 x 10 6) 2  (86,400) 2]/ 4 * (3.14) 2 } 1/3

which comes out to:

R = 4.23 x 10 7 m

or R = 42,300 km (since 1 km = 1000 m or 10 3 m)

In other words, this is the distance that a moon would have to be from
Earth to be stationary to an observer on the surface.

Note here that:  R = d + r where r is the radius of the planet (Earth) and
d is the distance from surface to Moon center.

Thus, if r = 6400 km, then

d = R - r  = 42,300 km - 6400 km =  35, 900 km

or R =  (35, 900 km ) 0.625 = 22, 400 miles

(Since 1 km = 5/8 or 0.625 of a mile)


All of this can be applied to your own planet and moon, simply by changing
the quantities as needed when making the substitutions.

One final point. You want to make sure that your moon is beyond the Roche
limit, i.e. the limit wherein the tidal forces of the planet can tear it
asunder.

This is typically:

2.423 x the planet's radius, assuming both planet and moon have the SAME
density.

In that instance, you need to use the formula for the Roche Limit:

RL = [(2.423)* r* (density of planet)]/ (density of Moon)

We know, from a geodetic table, that:

density of Earth = 5.51 g/ cc (grams per cubic centimeter)

density of Moon = 3.34 g/cc

Then:  RL =  [2.423* (6.4 x 10 6  m)*5.51]/ 3.34

Note that we needn't worry about density unit compatibility since the same
factor will apply whether in kg/ m 3 or g/cm 3 )

Thus:

RL =  2.423 * (6.4 x 10 6 )* 1.65 = 2.55 x 10 7 m


or 25, 500 km (or 40, 939 miles)

Since a geo-stationary 'moon' for Earth would be at R = 42,300 km

and

RL < R   (25, 500 km <  42, 300 km)

then the condition is met, at least for the case of the Earth .

This is what you will have to do with your own 'designed' system to make
sure it conforms to realistic physical conditions.

Now, you also mentioned having "an additional moon", so that one is behind
the other and "both stationary as seen from the planets surface".

Alas, you are seeking to have 'your cake and eat it'.

The point here is that only one moon can occupy a given geo-stationary
orbit (i.e. for one planet) and conform to those orbital parameters.

Thus, you would virtually have to have one moon 'sitting' adjacent to the
other in orbit, but this is clearly impossible since the Roche Limit
prohibits it!

Thus, the realistic position for a 2nd moon would have to be such that
it's OUTSIDE the Roche Limit of the inner moon.

Say, your first moon's radius is 1000 km, then the 2nd can be no closer
than:

2.423 x (1000 km) = 2, 423 km

assuming both have the same density. But, now - 2,423 km further out, one
has (say for the case of Earth and a geo-stationary moon):

R' = 42,300 km +  2, 423 km = 44, 723 km

and since R <> R'  (not equal R') the moon can no longer be stationary for
the same observer on the planet (Earth).

Hopefully, you will find this information helpful in designing your
system!




What Happened To Civility? TRUMP!



"'Roseanne' was not canceled because it is mean or HORRIBLE to compare a black person to n ape (though it is both of those things). It was canceled because it carries the weight of past horrors and current atrocities - because comparing a black person to an ape nods to an historically rooted yet increasingly emboldened far right movement whose chosen figurehead - Donald Trump -is the president of the United States.

Because it is our collective responsibility not to let that movement win, to fight to be a better country and right now cultural power is all we have. ...Canceling 'Roseanne' is not society regulating 'mean speech'; it is regulating our collective morality so we don't atrophy into a moral vacuum."  

- Lindy West, NY Times. June 1, p. A23.

It's truly laughable to behold all the Righties now in high dudgeon and overcome by self-righteous fervor after Samantha Bee's little 48 second riff on Ivanka Trump on TBS.  These goddamned hypocrites are intent on making a case for a "double standard" despite Bee delivering one scripted word (part of her team's effort) as opposed to randomly spewing racial hate in tweets like Roseanne Barr.   To me,  the monologues comedians use as vehicles of outrage -such as Michelle Wolf's and now Samantha Bee's-   are no biggies because they are expressing vehement disdain at a totally corrupt and gangster administration that not only flouts norms, but laws,  as it enriches itself while it makes fools of a backward, gullible base. Just look at the trade war the Dotard has begun. Do any of his groupies really believe it won't affect them, their lives?  Look at the drastic limitations of H2B visas which are impacting businesses adversely across the country. To the point it will jeopardize economic growth, and the life quality of Dotard's base.

Getting back to Samantha Bee, she was expressing righteous anger and outrage at the Trump border policy of ripping small children from their migrant parents and separating them - then dispatching the kids to often cold, distant facilities.

Bee delivered her statement with the poster 'Migrant Kids' in the background and said:

"Tearing children away from their parents is so evil,  it's the inciting incident in almost every movie we've ever cared about  You know, Ivanka, that's a beautiful photo of you and your child, but let me just say, one mother to another, do something about your father's disgusting immigration practices,  you feckless c***!"

Outrageous? Yeah, ok, maybe. But understandable in context, and as CNN's Peggy Drexler has pointed out:

"Bee is not Barr — she is not spewing random and racist, anti-Semitic, conspiracy-theory views over years on Twitter, as Barr  has, and often in the service of supporting the President's policies. Nor, let's be honest, are we living in a time of particularly polite discourse. .  . It's important, too, to remember that Bee is a comedian known for delivering a standup monologue which, like that of other comedians, often uses outrageous, boundary-pushing and, to some, offensive comedy to make strong points about politics. "


The point here is to distinguish vulgarity from overt racism such as Barr delivered. Also, to process that Barr just tweeted her foul racist hits on Valerie Jarrett out of the blue, because the little racist demon nestled in her lizard brain prompted it. Meanwhile, Bee was reacting to a genuine abomination which has already seen 658 kids ripped from their parents' arms at the border because the degenerate Trump cabal want to punish migrants for even attempting to come here.

Indeed, before accepting an award last night for her show 'Full Frontal', Bee made the following point regarding how the comment would be received: 
"We spent the day wrestling with the repercussions of one bad word, when we all should have spent the day incensed that as a nation we are wrenching children from their parents."

Spot on and accurate!  But typical now when perceptions and processing of events have fallen down a rabbit hole thanks to the traitor and tyrant fouling the highest office in the land. Who should be setting the best tone, but is defecating on civility and norms with each tweet literally and setting the worst. Those who are aghast and against this perfidy may go overboard at times, like Bee, Michelle Wolf and even yours truly, but our visceral, vehemence ought to be grasped in context. Not made the orphan example of some ludicrous existence of a "double standard" by the same despicables who applaud Trump's policies.

Let us agree then that one of the roles of a President is to project decorum and respect for this office, and from this office to the world - and to his fellow citizens.  But over the past 16 months of the Trump occupation he has done exactly the opposite.  From spewing the most verminous, atrocious lies, such as blaming Dems for the separation of kids from parents at the border - to attacking the very rule of law by undermining his own Dept. of Justice. The latter has included not only ginning up fake issues like "spygate" - which even House oversight committee chair Trey Gowdy now concedes  is spurious - to granting mock pardons outside the brief and policies of the DOJ.   With every move we see a fell gangster in office, who needs to be removed in the most expeditious way possible, and hopefully soon - before this nation falls into total civil disorder, never mind a constitutional crisis (which I believe is ongoing) 

Sadly, Peggy Drexler's point that we will now be mostly consumed by one bad word that Bee used in a spasm of rage, instead of on the odious immigration policy, is coming to pass.  But this is understandable given we have never been a people known for judiciously weighing actions and the ultimate  import of issues.  Often letting them be clouded or trumped by trivial distractions.  

The warning last night from a number of pundits (E.g. Jill Wine-Banks, Matthew Miller)  that our democracy is being weakened by those at the top should not be taken lightly. Every lie they spew, every vile policy they enact and enforce, and every attack made on the rule of law - including Trump's specious "pardons" -  is another nail in the coffin of our Republic. In the case of the latter, as Lawrence Tribe, David Corn, Matt Miller and others have warned, Trump is "discrediting this institution of his own government"  and his issuance of these pardons is a "complete perversion of the pardon process".  The combined effect of which is to delegitimize one branch of government - his own. This is given he's using these pardons to "punish prosecutors who brought the original cases" against the convicted and admitted culprits. (Dinesh D'Souza, for example, already admitted wrongdoing.)

Since civility will be in greater regress if democracy fails, there must be payback for the Trumpies' actions. The desire to move toward civility - while worthy in itself- cannot be used as a smokescreen (or bludgeon)  to inhibit or prevent robust outrage or protest when and where it's justified, such as in the case of these draconian immigration practices - which cross the line into proto-Nazism.

Those who rue the absence of civility and decency ought to have thought hard about those virtues before electing Trump, the antithesis of both.  As we've been reminded by smirkingchip.com blogger Roy Edelson about Trump's behavior during the campaign, e.g.

"In Burlington,, Vermont, Trump ordered his security personnel to 'Throw them out into the cold.  Don’t give them their coats. No coats! Confiscate their coats. 

In Las Vegas, Nevada, he told the crowd, 'I’d like to punch him in the face” and reminisced about earlier days when demonstrators would be “carried out on stretchers.”

 Carried out on stretchers.  Just like our nation is about to be now.
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