Showing posts with label social distancing. Show all posts
Showing posts with label social distancing. Show all posts

Thursday, April 9, 2020

Our Escape From 'Galaxy's Edge' @ Disney World Before The COVID-19 Shutdowns




Top: Part of crowd at  Galaxy's Edge area in Disney Hollywood Studios waiting to get into the popular 'Rise of The Resistance'  (Star Wars) ride.  Bottom, yours truly near Millennium Falcon model, about to enter Smugglers' Run ride.


Our Trip to Disney World in February (11-16) came just as the coronavirus scare was heating up in the media and in U.S. health centers. Also after Trump was given an intel heads up (from the Defense Intelligence Agency or DIA among others) about a "potentially calamitous pandemic". I.e.

"National Security Council officials received the warnings in early January about the potential dangers from a new virus in Wuhan, China.  The State Department’s epidemiologist warned early that the virus could develop into a pandemic, while the National Center for Medical Intelligence, a small outpost of the Defense Intelligence Agency, reached the same conclusion."

But the ignorant buffoon-  still smarting from his deserved  impeachment-   dismissed it, then proceeded to downplay its severity, i.e. "It's no worse than the flu" after referring to a "democratic hoax" for 2 weeks.

Close to this time, after Dotard finally awakened,  he imposed travel restrictions on China, but forgot all about the threat from Europe- which is now believed to have triggered the wave of infections in New York, e.g. NY Times:

"New research indicates that the coronavirus began to circulate in the New York area by mid-February, weeks before the first confirmed case, and that it was brought to the region mainly by travelers from Europe, not Asia."  'The majority is clearly European,” said Harm van Bakel, a geneticist at Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, who co-wrote a study awaiting peer review.

A separate team at  the N.Y.U.  Grossman School of Medicine came to strikingly similar conclusions, despite studying a different group of cases. Both teams analyzed genomes from coronaviruses taken from New Yorkers starting in mid-March.

The research revealed a previously hidden spread of the virus that might have been detected if aggressive testing programs had been put in place"

Had Dotard  and his feeble, feckless administration had tests ready for the incoming European travelers-  as well as U.S. students returning home-   New York might gave been spared thousands of unnecessary, horrific deaths - now much worse than suffered  in 9/11.  Certainly similar travel restrictions to what were applied to China would have helped.

We knew  at the time we left for Orlando (actually, on Feb. 7)  it was more serious than the idiot occupying the WH made it out to be, but also we realized we could not pass up the chance to meet with cousins for this long planned family reunion. Indeed,there was little of note regarding any risks mentioned in the media, though we were aware New Orleans' Mardi Gras would be going on a week after we'd be coming back to Colorado. (It's now believed the New Orleans' severe outbreak was triggered by the Mardi Gras crowds)

The main purpose of our trip was to attend a cousins' reunion in Orlando proper, with more than 18 cousins and spouses (and children) from my mom's side of the family - some of whom I hadn't seen in over 40 years.  However, given the three day duration of the actual reunion (in a succession of events, e.g. dinners, barbecue) we opted to add on a week at DisneyWorld - staying at the unique Animal Kingdom Lodge.  One big reason for this add-on excursion was  to experience the new Star Wars and Avatar rides, attractions.  We also looked forward to being in a lodge where one had close access to an array of African animals populating an expansive, grassy savannah.  These included: giraffes, Zebras, Thompson's Gazelles, Wildebeest,   Waterbuck, Vultures, etc., each of which we could see from our balcony.

We'd heard from Disney agents that we needed to plan ahead for seeing most of the attractions, especially the new rides, the "Rise of the Rebellion" at  the Galaxy's Edge in Hollywood Studios, as well as the new "Smugglers' run" ride.  We also wanted to go on two new "Avatar"-based  rides at the Animal Kingdom.  We got the fast passes for nearly all the rides, attractions but at the time couldn't get any for the Rise of the Rebellion - the most popular ride. (Disney customer agents said the fast passes for that ride would not be available until Feb. 16th -the day we were to fly back to Denver.)

So we decided to bite the bullet and just get up as early as possible on the morning of  February 12th, to get to that Star Wars-based virtual reality experience and ride.  Instead of trusting a bus (making other stops),  we hired a taxi at 5:45 a.m.  and got to Hollywood Studios at 6:15 a.m.  Even so, the crowd gathered at the entrance was mind- boggling, easily in the thousands. Fortunately, Disney opened the gates at 7:00 a.m. and after a security check the visitors swarmed in. We then had to reach the Star Wars "Galaxy's Edge" area for the actual ride.  

We were informed that in order to get on the ride we had to get access to a numbered "Boarding Group"  and that meant hitting the right  cell phone access button for the special app exactly at 8:00 a.m. (or as close to the time as possible). When the time came, Janice had her finger ready - but the connection failed at 7:59 a.m.  So we were stuck without getting on, after all the early effort- and bummed out - worse because we had skipped a breakfast. So we hiked out of the area to grab some eats (bananas, muffins, coffee) at an outdoor cafe before returning and having more luck with the new Smuggler's run ride.

The size of the crowd preparatory to boarding group access - as seen from the top image- was already incredible, with thousands of wannabe Star travelers cheek to jowl. We  both speculated that the reason for the cell dropout at the absolute wrong time was thousands trying to gain access at once. Too much competition and our fingers weren't fast enough.*  Looking back now, it would have been a perfect venue and time for the COVID-19 to spread, given zero social distancing. I guess you could say we were lucky as the spreading virus had not hit Florida yet, though some ten days later a visitor from LA was reported to have come then returned to California where he died of severe respiratory symptoms. 

Barely a month later (March 16) Disney closed all its theme parks worldwide, and we learned from a WSJ report (April 2, Disney to Furlough Employees Across All U.S. Divisions)



That U.S. employees would be furloughed out of 222,000 worldwide.  Nonessential workers wold be furloughed from April 19th "making them eligible for compensation passed in the recent stimulus package."   According to the same piece, the shutdown of Disney theme parks only came "amid calls to socially distance from other people".  Based on what we saw from the days we went to the parks, we can attest that the crowds were phenomenal.  Social distancing, especially at any restaurants, was impossible, but then it had not become an imperative at the time we were there in February.

On reaching Denver and hearing the news of impending spread of the virus, then erupting by early March, Janice wasted no time in stocking up on provisions: canned tuna, canned salmon, batches of Basmati rice, beans and more beans, Spam, canned veggies....and toilet paper. She managed to get all that  at a Colorado Springs Costco before the panic buying began a few days later- with store shelves rendered bare and people getting increasingly unnerved.

Looking back, we count ourselves lucky we planned for the trip and went when we did.  This was mere weeks before airlines severely cut back on flights and the social distancing meme assumed the gravity of a mandate.  As far as we know all the cousins got back to their respective homes safe and sound and are hunkered down like we are now - enjoying their photos & videos of the reunion. 

As for the Disney World rides  and attractions we understand from the WSJ piece they are shut down indefinitely.  Doesn't matter, both Janice and I got to be kids again and enjoyed the rides just like the kids, dodging the COVID-19  bullet by a mouse's whisker.
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* Janice did return to the park later in the evening as part of boarding group 109 - the last for the day (as per a message relayed to her cell at 6:15 p.m. while we were dining in the Lodge club area). I told her to go ahead as I wasn't able. (I had been walking the whole way around the park -  12 odd  miles by my estimate-  while Janice was using a small electric scooter or ECV (electrical conveyance vehicle) -  designed  for older visitors.

See also:

Monday, March 23, 2020

Can Americans Really Be Persuaded To "Voluntarily" Distance To Avert A COVID-19 Catastrophe?

"It does seem counterintuitive that Trump stands a chance of spinning his epic fuck-up into a victory. It's not going to be easy, especially when there are scenes on the news of nurses weeping behind their face-shields, crying out for more masks, more ventilators, more everything. We will be witness to outright chaos on the hospital wards, and someone will get a camera into a room where an expiring coronavirus victim is gasping for air. (Here is a scene from an overwhelmed hospital in Bergamo, Italy, on Sky News.) Trump won't be able to spin scenes of death and dying out of existence, no matter how many toadying fools he's got standing behind him in the White House press room." - Lucian Truscott IV,  'Trump's Performance With His Task Force Is An Act'.


On watching the scenes over the ABC News last night-  of people clustering out in the open - in the Covid-19 hard hit states of New York, California and Florida, I mentioned to Janice that people aren't taking the social distancing seriously.  She merely replied: "Hate to say I told you so, but there it is. As I said before, most of your countrymen are a pack of idiots, selfish, gullible,  arrogant and stupid."

We then noted the appearance of NY Governor Andrew Cuomo who asserted he is prepared to crack down, but it remains to be seen whether cop "suggestions" to scofflaws will be enough. I believe rather what New Orleans' mayor has in mind might more plausibly make them snap to attention: A $500 fine for first offense, and later possible jail time.  Somehow, if force is needed, it may have to be employed to get these dopes to grasp the situation we're in, and that it's not just a big staycation.  Janice agreed, saying: "Some stronger Chinese methods might also be called for to wake them up!"

In his latest NY Times piece columnist Donald McNeil wrote that containing the virus:

"takes intelligent, rapidly adaptive work by health officials, and near-total cooperation from the populace. Containment becomes realistic only when Americans realize that working together is the only way to protect themselves and their loved ones."

But this is at odds with the degree of social hobnobbing visible in the news spots. It as if these fellow citizens have zero sense of civic responsibility. They place more priority in their flouting of social distancing and gratuitous aggregating than stopping the virus. Are they then ready for the body bags to pile up and possibly including their own kin? Probably not, because that impact - such as we are now seeing in Italy- appears too distant and unreal to them.  They will actually have to see the catastrophe unfold in their own communities to "get it."  It is as if their prefrontal cortex  has ceased to function, which is understandable in the Trump era where almost every day we behold numerous assaults on that brain area. Hell, even Anthony Fauci  must be at the edge having to deal with Trump's incessant false hope blurtations and exaggerations, e.g.


McNeil also writes:

"In interviews with a dozen of the world’s leading experts on fighting epidemics, there was wide agreement on the steps that must be taken immediately.

Those experts included international public health officials who have fought AIDS, malaria, tuberculosis, flu and Ebola; scientists and epidemiologists; and former health officials who led major American global health programs in both Republican and Democratic administrations.

Americans must be persuaded to stay home, they said, and a system put in place to isolate the infected and care for them outside the home."

The question, however, is whether mere reason and persuasion can work given we inhabit a nation loaded with entitled people who have little sense of common cause and generally see individual liberty as their personal right.  Even in a deadly pandemic which has every capability of wiping them out if they put that personal liberty before cooperative action.  McNeil again:

"It was not at all clear that a nation so fundamentally committed to individual liberty and distrustful of government could learn to adapt to many of these measures, especially those that smack of state compulsion.

“The American way is to look for better outcomes through a voluntary system,” said Dr. Luciana Borio, who was director of medical and biodefense preparedness for the National Security Council before it was disbanded in 2018."

That may be,  but clearly it isn't enough as the example of Italy shows, now with so many dead bodies in assorted villages there is no longer enough burial space and they have to be cremated. Is this really what Americans want?  Are they that determined to flout state shutter- in -place and lockdown orders to try to show who is the boss? Then I hope they are ready to get COVID-19  and perhaps - when no ventilators are there to keep them breathing-  they will see the error of their ways. Of course by then it will be too late. 

It is, of course, no surprise we are following the infection trajectory of Italy almost to a tee, for the extent of time covered thus far. McNeil notes for example:

"Italy moved incrementally: Officials slowly and reluctantly closed restaurants, churches and museums, and banned weddings and funerals. Nonetheless, the country’s death count continues to rise. The United States is slowly following suit. International flights are all but banned, but not domestic ones. California has ordered all residents to stay at home; New York was to shutter all nonessential businesses on Sunday evening.

But other states have fewer restrictions, and in Florida, for days spring break revelers ignored government requests to clear the beaches."

So given we are lackadaisical in approach like Italy, we should not be amazed if we soon see similar apocalyptic scenes playing out here.  Meanwhile, many pundits still point with amazement to China managing to bring virus deaths to a screeching halt (no cases reported in the last 4 days), all but forgetting the draconian methods needed to do it, i.e. (ibid.):

"In contrast to the halting steps taken here, China shut down Wuhan — the epicenter of the nation’s outbreak — and restricted movement in much of the country on Jan. 23, when the country had a mere 500 cases and 17 deaths. Its rapid action had an important effect: With the virus mostly isolated in one province, the rest of China was able to save Wuhan."

Could that degree of restriction be applied here, say to prevent our medical system from being overwhelmed and maybe 800,000 dead in the next two months from lack of ventilators? I doubt it.  If the governors of New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania totally locked down their 3 states in tandem there'd probably be rioting in the streets.  

"How dare they take away our personal liberty and our right to kill ourselves if we want!"

Forgetting they're killing many others with them, all expected to sacrifice the minority's personal liberty for the lives of the majority.  All forgetting Spock's famous words at the end of the classic Trek film Star Trek II:

"The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the one, or the few."

More collectively organized societies get that, and it's time ours did too especially when we are in a similar war mode - in terms of mobilizing critical  resources, especially medical equipment.  In this regard I am always reminded of my folks' sacrifices during World War II.  Did they pout and cry because they had to adhere to gas and food rationing and state rules?  Of course not,  because they put on their 'big boy' pants and  understood they were all in that great moment together, to subdue a common foe.  We can do less now. Less thought of "me", much more of  "WE".

Update: Confirming once again he's out of his depth and indeed, a national security threat, Trump has insisted "the cure cannot be worse than the disease" and that he is considering removing current restrictions "at the end of the 15 days".   The blowhard, bombastic maggot and walking human feces does not grasp that "15 days" was an optimum case projection - assuming Trump and his cronies didn't fuck up any critical aspect, like getting sufficient tests out. But as we know they've fucked up multiple aspects, from failing to get out enough test kits, to waiting too long to declare a pandemic (calling it a "hoax" for the first 2 weeks),  to not delivering enough medical supplies where needed. In the latter case, forcing medical workers to compete for N95 masks and ventilators etc.

And so he and his asswipe administration have led us to a clusterfuck: health workers now crying and begging for protective personal equipment, and imploring we the citizens to  "stay in while we fight for you."  Now the orange fungus, fretting over his precious economy,  would simply torpedo that and allow our millions of medical heroes to die as well as millions more Americans to become infected by leaving their shuttered homes to prematurely return to jobs that may afford no protection - and zero sick days off. So once more this swine has proven he isn't fit to collect dog poop in parks, far less run a nation. As Maureen Dowd put it in her recent NY Times piece:
Image may contain: possible text that says 'rump 1S just a petrified sales- man who believes in perception over reality. He thinks if he can create the perception that this is going to be a quick fix and there's a little pill coming, then the stock market will roar back, along with his 2020 momentum.'
Also, given his latest performances, we now know he is indeed the "same psychotic monster" we had always believed, e.g.



See Also:

NUCLEAR RISK



And:

As coronavirus spreads, so do doubts about America’s ability to meet the moment


Excerpt:

"We are at a fork in the road and the choices we make now are going to put us down at least one of two pathways,” said Schoch-Spana, who has studied the response to the 1918 flu outbreak, which killed at least 50 million people globally.  

Monday, April 15, 2013

What Do You Do If A Bird Flu Pandemic is Coming? (2)

With the latest reports of the cases of human Avian flu  increasing- and spreading- the interest in what Americans need to do is not purely academic or abstract. It entails genuine grave decisions on matters of life and death. Some further areas I want to cover in this blog post include:  hygiene, cooking when electricity is either not available or only partially,  and wills.

Hygiene:

There are two aspects here, external and internal - the first to do with interactions with the outside world in the grip of Avian  H5 N1 flu, and the second pertaining to your household when one or more members becomes ill.

In the external realm, you will want to protect yourself by "social distancing"  - avoiding gatherings of people, or even simple social occasions whether weddings, parties or whatever. This sounds harsh, but we know from data compiled during the Spanish flu pandemic that those who were most likely to survive minimized their contacts with the outside word and had few if any occasions to mingle. Mingling in any venue means chances increase for droplet or touch infection, even if you're wearing a flu mask - and you should wear one if you go out, even to shop for other needed odds and ends (e.g. battery chargers, Mag-lites etc.).

Also, it goes without saying that when you return home you wash hands rigorously, no 5 seconds and done.  During the recent norovirus outbreak I even went one step further by using antiseptic wipes on the surfaces of any bottles, or cans purchased at the grocery which I intended for immediate use. This after learning that the norovirus can last up to 13 or more days on surfaces. As I already had a wife recovering from H3N2 flu, I didn't want her - or me (as the primary helper) to get norovirus on top of it.

Now, ridicule the films 'Contagion' and 'Fatal Contact- Bird Flu in America' as scare mongering if you will, but the fact is people are often way too 'touch happy' during even seasonal flu outbreaks and this is what brings perdition on them and their families. They touch each other, shake hands, hug in the grocery mart, then touch their noses, face etc. --- and as the CDC character notes in 'Contagion' - up to 3500 times an hour!  In a time of Avian Flu, if you happen to go out and about, you want to minimize touching as much as feasible. Use readily disposable latex gloves if you must go out at the height of an epidemic or pandemic, and then the payment will not be as fierce if you touch door knobs, elevator buttons or other contaminated surfaces.

Those who think these precautions are over the top, I suggest you get hold of PBS' documentary on the Spanish flu and watch it, especially the scenes of the bloody vomit and sputum covering hospital beds and the lungs (at autopsy)  turned into jello after the subjects shown were infected. This isn't a damned joke, not one bit.


The hygiene principles applied to external agents can be also applied to the household. How did I avoid getting H3N2 flu when my wife had it? A number of precautions, all  based on reasonable separation and isolation, which would help in the event Avian Flu takes down any person in your household:



1- Keeping all utensils, dishes etc. separate – each person using his, her own.

2- The infected person covering every sneeze or cough to reduce the likelihood of droplet infection.

3- Washing hands after touching almost everything including laptop (that we sometimes share), phone, or even a door knob. As for phone, using wipes to scrub it down before making or taking a call.

4- No touching of the face if you can help it, including picking at nose, rubbing eyes, putting fingers into mouth etc. Be conscious of what you are doing with fingers, hands!

5- Sleeping in separate bedrooms -if this is feasible-  especially as infected people will experience severe coughing bouts at night which they'll not  be able control- hence droplets spread through the room.

The above are all in place once a household member gets ill

  Cooking when Electricity is a problem:

 Let's face it- eating canned foods for three months may not be everyone's cup of tea. For those who want some degree of diversity, you will need to get cooking gear that doesn't depend on electricity - and bear in mind the folks that operate your utility or power station can get sick too!

 The methods most recommended in survival handbooks include:  

- Two burner Coleman stove  

- Small Weber Kettle grill (burns charcoal briquettes but can use other materials)  

- Large Weber Propane grill that runs off a 20-lb propane tank.  

My preferences go to the first two, since I kind of instinctively distrust propane tanks. But this is still a personal choice.  A further note, since water is likely to be in short supply, it is useful to wrap any veggies or meats in aluminum foil before putting onto your heat source. This way you keep the surfaces of your grill or stove clean in a (likely) water -challenged situation and the last thing you want is salmonella with Avian  flu going around!  Just remember to stock plenty of aluminum foil along with your foods.    

Making out a Will:

 Incredibly, nearly 2 in 3 Americans have no Will. Though they may pout and whine about the "government" taking their hard earned money, this is where it all gets exposed as nonsense-- since without a will that's exactly what you're allowing to happen!  No one likes to think about the inevitable (except maybe the crazed fundies in their salvation and 'Hell' phantasms)  but think about it you must - especially when a flu pandemic is facing you.   Among the myths that people buy into:  

"Joint ownership of accounts, property etc. makes a will unecessary". 

This is a common misconception. In fact, joint ownership alone often creates needless state or federal estate taxes and may result in gift taxes being due. It may also deny you complete control over your property while you're still living. Thus, joint ownership is a poor substitute for a will but can work well in conjunction with one.  

"A Will is not needed for a small estate".

On the contrary, the smaller the assets or estate the more important it be settled quickly, since delays mean increased expenses cutting down the proceeds. In many cases, an estate is larger than the owner realizes, and it's often undervalued. Still have all those 1952 TOPPS baseball cards? Well, they are part of your estate and if in near mint condition, now worth over $55,000.  

Can you prepare a will - last will and testament- on your own? Yes, but it's not a good idea. The reason is that many do-it-yourself wills are declared null and void by the courts.   My wife and I got our original will done soon after our marriage (1975)  by an attorney  in Barbados, it took ten minutes and cost $100 Bds. We got our will revised about ten years ago, to take into account family-beneficiary changes etc. It was done by a local attorney for about $200 and took less than a half hour.  

Given such an important piece of the typical American's financial puzzle, it is incredible that more haven't done it. With a possible Avian flu pandemic it is essential it be done, and now may be the time to do it so you can focus your energies on collecting supplies later. Just a bit of advice!