No, This Senior Will Not Be "Sacrificing" For The Economy, I.e. Donnie Bonespurs

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Crave Unity If You Must - But Not At The Expense of Conscience and Moral Clarity

Look, I get the sentiments and angst of "middle of the road" voters like Elisa Parker, described in a Denver Post front page story as terrified at the nation's polarization and desperately searching for it to end.  But for god's sake, that doesn't mean - or shouldn't - sacrificing clarity and conscience at any cost - just to get peace. It can't or we are all for the high jump.

There is ONE side, one source, at fault and it is up to even the "moderates" to figure that out before election day next Tuesday. It is simply not good enough to wring hands and bleat repeatedly about being caught "between both extremes" while you shift from "liberal to conservative" media to find answers.  The answers are there, in front of citizens' eyes- they just have to look- and not very far.  Then the source of all our travails and political division exposed as Donald J. Trump, as former Republican strategist Steve Schmidt put it last night on 'All In':

"What Trump is doing is stoking and inciting for the purposes of political power the worst amongst us to take action in his name..... This man (Robert Bowers), a fanatic  was radicalized by FOX News, by talk radio and a right wing propaganda machine that is as sophisticated as it is deadly."

See:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uwxQYQB1zD0

I advise all readers to watch Schmidt's explanation of how and why Trump has waged a cold Civil War that has now become hot on the margins. And will get even hotter unless people come to their senses and put a check on his authoritarian narcissism.

We know, for example, that the White Nationalists marching last year in Charlottesville, e.g.

grew even more fond of Dotard after Trump said there were some “very fine people on both sides”.  They took that as a cue to get even bolder.   We also know that Robert Bowers believed the caravan was caused by Jews and supported by HIAS. That's when he then tweeted, "Screw your optics, I'm going in!"   Would he have been that energized if Trump hadn't been pounding the "caravan" as an existential threat at every damned rally he had? I say, doubtful. So it merely took his already virulent anti-Semitism in conjunction to what he interpreted - from Trump's rhetoric - to be an immediate threat, to act.

See e.g.

Trump's phony 'caravan' hysteria led to the Synagogue murders: Adam Serwer for The Atlantic

Trump is the source of our current tribalism and "cold Civil War" to use Steve Schmidt's term. Trump, aka Dotard, even had the shameless audacity to blame Jews for their slaughter by saying they ought to have had armed guards at the synagogue. The same idiocy he had proposed (with his crank NRA lackeys) for schools after the Parkland massacre.

According to Stanford Sociology professor Robb Willer, quoted in the Denver Post piece, "the violent tribalism currently so ingrained in American life will eventually right itself". However, this will not be until the public decides it's had enough and stops rewarding politicians who use incendiary language and demonize the other side."

Newsflash! That is exactly Donald Trump!  Don't use excuses to deflect by saying (as WSJ's Holman Jenkins often has ) that "it's just his style",  or as some media pundits insist "he likes to punch back". (Hey, let this mutt punch back at a tackling dummy or whatever.)

At least, let's call a spade a spade and outright just say he loves to foment hate. It's in his DNA.

As Prof. Willer explained:

"That is the question of our time. Are we going to continue the war or are we going to choose peace? We don't yet know what the answer to that will be because while a majority are fed up with the political divisions it does feel we're stuck here."

Well, we're stuck until the message to cease and desist is sent. That opportunity arrives next week and as former Republican commenter Max Boot put it, the only way to send a clear message is to vote Democratic because now that is the only way to put a check and balance on Trump - wich the GOP congress chooses not to do.

As reported in The Guardian, it is Trump who has fueled a climate of hatred in general and antisemitism in particular, with the GOP congress acting as his enabler, several experts warned on Monday. Trump's  tone has justifiably received renewed scrutiny after Saturday’s massacre of 11 worshippers at The Tree of Life Synagogue, the deadliest attack on Jewish people in American history.  David N Myers, a professor of Jewish history at the University of California, Los Angeles put it bluntly:

“He has dramatically elevated the level of rhetorical tension in ways that do not discourage people from acting out their terrifying views,"

Trump renewed the offensive on Monday with a tweet that warned of an “invasion” of immigrants, echoing the hate-filled writings of accused synagogue gunman Robert Bowers.

Trump wrote that “some very bad people” were mixed into the caravan of several thousand people, mainly from Honduras, currently travelling through Mexico. “This is an invasion of our Country and our Military is waiting for you!” Trump added.

Citing official sources, The Wall Street Journal reported that the Trump administration was preparing to send 5,000 more troops to the border to help with security, angering immigrants’ rights activists and others who say the move militarizes the issue unnecessarily for political gain ahead of crucial midterm elections next week.

But Trump’s choice of words also caused further outrage.

Again he tried to shift blame to the media on Monday, arguing that “fraudulent” reporting was contributing to anger in the country and - in yet more homage to Hitler - again declaring that the press was the “true Enemy of the People”.  Like a true fascist or proto-Nazi Trump has consistently  decried criticism of his corrosive rhetoric and fears over its consequences.  All of which are entirely valid, given only a confirmed tyrant would be at home with an obsequious press.

A survey by the Public Religion Research Institute found a majority (54%) of Americans feel Trump’s decisions and behavior have encouraged white supremacist groups, compared with 39% who say they had had no effect and 5% who say he has discouraged these groups.

Critics say he has a history of using Jewish stereotypes.

In 2015, he told the Republican Jewish Coalition “I’m a negotiator like you folks” but suggested they would not support him “because I don’t want your money”. The following year, he tweeted an image of Clinton set against a background of US currency with a six-pointed star (reminiscent of the star of David) and the words, “Most corrupt candidate ever!”  E.g.

His closing campaign ad further railed against “global special interests” and featured images of George Soros, a billionaire investor and philanthropist, and the Federal Reserve chairwoman, Janet Yellen, both of whom are Jewish. Let's not mince words here, though "the Donald" may have thought he was cleverly disguising his anti-Semitic hostility most of us saw right through it.

Subsequently, the Trump White House issued a statement to commemorate International Holocaust Remembrance Day that made no mention of Jews or antisemitism. Then the press secretary, Sean Spicer, was forced to apologize after asserting that Adolf Hitler, who gassed millions of Jews during the Holocaust, did not use chemical weapons.

Myers went on to say: “There is a toxic culture of vilification and demonization that has pervaded American political culture in recent years. Donald Trump did not invent that toxic culture but he has certainly stirred the pot considerably.”

As I've written about before, Trump has also made derogatory comments about women, Mexicans, Muslims and others. Myers added: “He’s an equal opportunity and equal opportunistic vilifier. My surmise is that he doesn’t dislike Jews more than other people but I am stupefied by his unwillingness to call it out when it occurs, especially given his own family background with his son-in-law and daughter.”

Want to sent a message to stop this insanity? Vote all Dem, down the ballot, next week on Tuesday. Dithering about and unable to decide so you plan to stay home? Then you award Trump and deliver a de facto vote for more polarization and hate speech - also the destruction of vital social insurance programs if the GOP retains the House as well as Senate.

Not bothered by Trump's rhetoric and like his economic moves  (tax cuts, dergulation etc.) instead?  Then you are merely an accomplice after the fact to enable his hate speech further, under the misguided belief the economy will keep working in your favor. 

Here's the single takeaway or bottom line in this pivotal election: We are in the midst of a moral crisis and the leader of the political coalition that controls all levers of  the federal government is continuing to stoke the fires of fear, resentment and hatred that have led us to this moment. If you seriously believe not voting Dem  -and hence putting a check on Trump - is not in your self interest, there is nothing more I can write or say. You clearly believe the nation's welfare is of lower priority. 'Nuff  said.

See also:

We Can't Deny the Connections Between the Pittsburgh Shooting Suspect's Apparent Motivation and Trump's Bigotry

Are You Ready For The Trump-Driven Stock Market Crash?

"Goddamn! I didn't think it'd crash that soon!  The end of the year?"

The headlines in yesterday's Financial Times were uncompromising and ought to have sent a signal to any sane investor- whether invested in a 401k, or IRA or just ordinary mutual funds, and even stocks.  That is, the testimony of Fed Chair Janet Yellen that the economy faces an "uncertain path" under the Donald Trump administration, which will also affect fiscal policy. She also warned against raising interest rates "too slowly" in her appearance before Congress Tuesday.

Is she right? Or is this scare mongering? First, let me remind readers as I've posted about before, Trump's fiscal plans are inherently unstable.   The reason is that the plans as they are include virtually NO new revenue and monstrous spending including on increasing the military proportion of the GDP. He also wants an "across the board" tax cut starting with increasing the current standard deduction of $12,600 (for joint filers) now, to $30,000.  These deductions, by the way, are what you use when you don't itemize.   At the same time, Trump would dump the $ 4, 050 write off claim for each member of a household, e.g. the "personal exemption". He also wants to simplify the tax code by changing from the current seven brackets - ranging from 10 percent to 39.6 % to just three brackets.

In addition, if he gets the help needed from congress, he will scrap in turn: 1) the AMT or alternative minimum tax, 2) the estate tax and 3) the 3.8% surtax on investment income - as part of abolishing Obamacare.  As regards the corporate tax rate he would lower it from the current 35 % (actually few businesses pay that rate, most are effectively 5%) and replace it with a 15 percent rate.  He has also floated the idea of applying this not only to big corporations but small business owners and the self-employed, including dentists, law partners, and Trump himself.

While all this sounds terrific in theory it carries a steep price tag, which you can get an idea of by studying the graphic below. That is, the national debt as a percentage of GDP would explode through the roof - exceeding the size of the entire U.S. economy within ten years. See e.g.


But long before that staggering event to come, latent fiscal instabilities are bound to play havoc in a stock bubble environment. This includes not only Trump's spending plans but the enormous  uncertainty to do with the ACA and its repeal, and what to replace it with. As I posted on December 23rd, the two main hospital lobbies - the American Hospital Association and the Federation of American Hospitals-- have released dovetailing studies that their members will suffer more than $200 billion in potential losses if the health care law is repealed without restoring funding cuts that were used to finance coverage expansion.

In other words, the GOP and Trumpsters are in a real hammerlock. You can't just dismiss $200b in losses to one market sector and not create serious stock market instability. You can't just take away the coverage of 20 million people and not expect political blowback. In the first case, there is the potential for a major correction or crash given the bubble that exists in the DOW and S&P 500.

In addition, and definitely not to be discounted, there is a sobering assessment is from the American Academy of Actuaries. The organization said that delaying the effective date of a repeal while developing a replacement would trigger a crisis for the individual health care market.  This is where millions who don't have job-based coverage (including many unemployed Trump voters) can buy policies. This includes more than 10 million with current access to Healthcare.gov.

Factor into this that the current market is way overvalued with P/E ratios through the stratosphere, and you have the earmarks for a crash and even major recession. (This is what actually prompted George Soros for taking a "bear position" after Trump's election for which he is being mocked by the "smartypants" now with the DOW at 20,000 or higher. But what will this lot do when the DOW crashes to 10,000?)

This wasn't merely an abstract exercise for Charlie Farrell, the CEO of Northstar Investment Advisors LLC, writing in The Denver Post Business pages three weeks ago. ('Do You Have The Stomach For The Next Stock Crash?')  He wrote:

"For the past eight years, investors have enjoyed a steadily increasing stock market. Memories of the 2008 crisis have largely faded and many investors have forgotten that sinking feeling. But if you want to avoid the mistakes investors made during the last crisis, you should start thinking bad thoughts. Yes., bad thoughts. Start training your brain and your guts for the next stock market decline. Why? Because big stock market crashes and declines happen and they pose a big threat to your wealth."

Does he know something about the Trump agenda others don't. Hardly! Well informed investors would already have processed the Trumpies want to roll back the Dodd-Frank protections that were implemented after the 2008 crash and banking crisis. They'd also know how the fiduciary rule to protect investors has been diluted and some Trumpies want it gutted entirely. As finance columnist Jill Schlesinger put it in her recent column ('Vital Fiduciary Rule Under Fire', D. Post, Feb. 5):

"I thought of the word 'shame' when news emerged that the Republicans in Congress were launching an effort to delay and perhaps kill portions of the Department of Labor's fiduciary rule, which is scheduled to begin implementation on April 10. The potential about face is a slap in the face to anyone who cares about investor protections."

So those two changes alone, to banking regs and the fiduciary rule, could wreak havoc with many. NOw add in the fact the stock market is 250% beyond what it was in late 2009 and you have the makings for real worry. Why?  Because a market that has increased 25% or more a year is in dangerous territory.

Arch-forecaster Nate Silver, in his book, The Signal and the Noise- Why So Many Predictions Fail But Some Don’t  warns (p. 347):

"Of the eight times in which the S&P 500 has increased at a rate much faster than its historical average over a 5-year period , five cases were followed by a severe and notorious crash, such as the Great Depression and the Black Monday crash of 1987”.

Interestingly, two of the largest stock market dives have followed two of the biggest bubbles: the first of 37.85 percent and on the heels of the bubble that formed from Jan. 14, 2000 to Oct. 9, 2002, and the second of 58.78 percent that formed (mainly due to the housing bubble) from Oct. 9, 2007 to March 9, 2009. People should also be leery of the S&P increasing beyond the range Silver notes over a 5-year period, and the DOW is also a proxy of that. In other words,   red alarms ought to have sounded after if it hits 20,000 - and especially if it rises further.  Are we in a "bubble"?  Check out some of the more current stats using Google and then you decide.  But bear in mind when most offerings are over-priced it is likely bubble territory.

All like now, specially with Trump's daffy economic plans in the pipeline (once he settles down,  if he ever does) and potential repeal of the ACA, people ought to be re-assessing their risk tolerance. Can you really afford to lose 75 percent of your 401k  if the market came a crapper again?

Author Farrell himself is blunt about how you will know if you're ready for stomach churning crash. He asks:

"Do you have the guts to see your stocks decline by 50 percent and stick with them? Most people don't".

He adds that if you are in the market - say with a 401k - and near retirement, you need to have at least three months of cash reserves. Some advisors like Schlesinger say six months is more like it.  She also insists those planning on hiring financial advisors need to grill them thoroughly about the investments being proposed and especially how they are being paid. If it is via commissions on sales, they may not have your best interests at heart.

See also:

http://smirkingchimp.com/thread/chuck-collins/71355/wall-street-hopes-you-ve-forgotten-the-crash-already