The ‘State of the World’ report (2000, pp. 46-47), warned that ever increasing water deficits will likely spark “water wars” by 2025 - with more than 500 million people in a condition of water deprivation. We now know from the data, that estimate was too conservative by far. We have reached a planet wide state of water bankruptcy.
This condition is here now and means that many regions will no longer be able to bounce back from frequent water shortages. Roughly 4 billion people - or just under half the global population - already live with severe water scarcity for at least one month a year. That means inadequate water to meet all their needs, whether washing themselves or their clothes, cooking their food, or simply staying hydrated.
Even in the so-called developed world, and especially here in the mountain west, water shortages are affecting lives - whether in terms of extended drought, or the fires triggered. Right now, my niece Vanessa and her hubby are in a fire danger warning with wind gusts up to 80 miles per hour and humidity at record lows (3%). Similar conditions are evident throughout Colorado and the usual snowpack is down to a minimum.
Beyond Colorado and the U.S. many more people - from equatorial Africa, to Europe to southwest Asia are seeing the ongoing consequences of water deficits, including: dry reservoirs, crop failures, sinking cities, water rationing, dust storms and frequent wildfires.
Meanwhile, the wildfire dangers are so great in Colorado now that everyone on the Front Range is advised to have a 'go bag' packed and ready to grab at a moment's notice. That bag (mine is a Sierra backpack) will include, basic clothing, important docs (passports, IDs, etc.), meds, medical insurance and credit cards, as well as assorted jump drives containing precious photos, books in e-form as well as correspondence and coming blog post material.
We here in the Springs, like citizens of other states, are at the mercy of drought because it affects the Colorado River where water demand has outstripped the supply. Much of this outstripping has occurred since the state's fracking craze - which consumed vast amounts of fresh water in order to get at shale oil. In much the same way AI data centers are now consuming millions of acre feet of water to feed the energy beast of AI demand. As that energy demand grows the rate of water deprivation will accelerate with water bankruptcy.
Let's be clear water bankruptcy isn't just a metaphor for water deficits. It is in fact a chronic condition that develops when a city or country uses more water than it can reliably replace. This is especially when aquifers and wetlands' replenishment become hard to reverse. It goes without saying such areas need to think long and hard before allowing the presence of bitcoin factories or AI data centers.
A new study by the UN University Institute for Water, Environment and Health has concluded the world has now gone beyond temporary water crises. That means many natural water systems are no longer able to return to their historical conditions. These systems have now descended to a state of failure, or water bankruptcy. In other words the water resources that support life display an 'overdrawn account'.
In financial bankruptcy, the initial warning signs are usually manageable: late payments, borrowing money using credit cards and selling things on eBay - often precious things. Then the spiral of debt tightens and the threat of delinquency rises. Water bankruptcy manifests in an analogous way, and in similar stages.
At first we pull a little more water out of the ground during dry years.to do what we regard as necessary tasks - say for fracking. Then we use bigger pumps and deeper wells to try and get more and more - until the water account dries up.
Case in point: frackers for the past 10 years - have been allowed to run amuck, drilling up to 50,000 frack wells across the state with each one consuming up to 5 million gallons each to enable hydraulic fracturing of the soil to release shale oil and natural gas. Do the math and you will see that the total water lost to fracking actually exceeds the shortfall noted earlier by nearly 37 billion gallons! (Using a 4 million gallon per well average consumption) Note again, this is going on in an already arid state that has suffered over seven years of drought. So no surprise our water accounts are now overdrawn.
The Global Bankruptcy Report, published on January 20, documents how widespread this degenerative process is becoming. Groundwater extraction alone has contributed to significant land subsidence over more than 2.3 million square miles including urban areas where close to 2 billion people live. When ground water is over pumped the underground structures - which hold water like a sponge - can collapse. Once the pores become compacted they can't be refilled.
In Mexico City land is sinking by 25 cm (10 ") per year. Jakarta, Bangkok and Ho Chi Minh City are among the high subsidence examples in Asia. Agriculture, so far, is among the world's largest water users. It is responsible for nearly 70 percent of global freshwater withdrawal. When a given region experiences water bankruptcy, farming becomes more difficult and more expensive. Farmers lose their farms, their work, political tensions rise and national security is threatened. Under the most severe conditions, mass migrations can be driven which creates tensions in other nations - which may have few or no resources to support them.
About 3 billion people - and nearly half of global food production - is now concentrated in areas where water storage is declining or unstable. More than 650,000 square miles of irrigated cropland are currently operating under high or very high scarcity.
In sum, the water wars that The State of the World 2000 forecast may be just around the corner.
See Also:
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Data Drain: The Land and Water Impacts of the AI Boom - Lincoln Institute of Land Policy
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