"The UFO compels decision because it exceeds modern governmentality, but we argue that the decision cannot be made. The reason is that modern decision presupposes anthropocentrism, which is threatened metaphysically by the possibility that UFOs might be ETs. As such, genuine UFO ignorance cannot be acknowledged without calling modern sovereignty itself into question."- Alexander Wendt and Raymond Duvall, 'Sovereignty and the UFO', Political Theory, Vol. 36, No. 4, p.612.
The headline on the front page of The Sunday Denver Post Perspective section featured at least three-inch letters as shown above. Just as noteworthy, the subheader screeched: 'Everyone needs to adjust to that fact.' It was obviously intended to snatch attention (say away from the Sports pages or the latest front page news about Trump tweeting nonsense) and it succeeded. The author was Daniel W. Dresner, not an astrophysicist but a professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University.
Which elicits the question of why an international politics prof would be writing about UFOs. Well, because the ramifications of UFOs clearly extend beyond the domain of astronomers and astrophysicists. Specifically, author Dresner cites a key paper by Alexander Wendt and Raymond Duvall in the journal Political Theory which I strongly urge every blog follower to read (you can download the PDF version) e.g.
Sovereignty and the UFO - Alexander Wendt, Raymond Duvall, 2008
Therein you will clearly see why the issue of the UFO and specifically what the paper's authors call the "UFO taboo" has come to the attention of political theory researchers. (By "UFO taboo" I and they mean the aversion to scientifically studying this phenomenon because it risks larger societal derision and even ostracism. A stupid reaction but an understandably human one, especially from a species that fancies itself the 'lords of creation' but actually might conceivably be seen as two-legged termite by a truly advanced civilization. )
As Perspective author Dresner writes: "UFOs are usually only brought up to crack jokes, and have been dismissed for decades."
He goes on, referencing the paper for which I provided the link above:
"In that paper, eventually published in the journal Political Theory, Wendt and Duvall argued that state sovereignty as we understand it is anthropocentric, or 'constituted and organized by reference to human beings alone'. They argued that the real reason UFOs have been dismissed is because of the existential challenge that they pose for a world view in which human beings are the most technologically advanced life forms.
'UFOs have never been systematically investigated by science or the state, because it is assumed to be known that none are extraterrestrial. Yet in fact this is not known, which makes the UFO taboo puzzling given the ET possibility. The puzzle is explained by the functional imperatives of anthropocentric sovereignty, which cannot decide a UFO exception to anthropocentrism while preserving the ability to make such a decision. The UFO can be known only by not asking what it is."
The conclusion of the authors (Wendt and Duvall) from this is that: "UFO ignorance is political rather than scientific".
Now let's try to unpack this for the more casual reader. Basically, Dresner and the paper's authors are asserting that humans are too fragile to handle the potential truth that we share the universe with more advanced beings. If then the UFOs seen in our skies, e.g. by military pilots going on record, are actual advanced ET craft, then it helps to avoid that unpleasant reality in one of two ways. One either dismiss the topic out of hand as the province of cranks or better (more "rational skeptic" approach), don't press the topic and instead leave the nature of the UFO unknown. Then everyone can go home and sleep at night without fretting that some advanced civilization is using our skies as their personal playground.
Now let's try to unpack this for the more casual reader. Basically, Dresner and the paper's authors are asserting that humans are too fragile to handle the potential truth that we share the universe with more advanced beings. If then the UFOs seen in our skies, e.g. by military pilots going on record, are actual advanced ET craft, then it helps to avoid that unpleasant reality in one of two ways. One either dismiss the topic out of hand as the province of cranks or better (more "rational skeptic" approach), don't press the topic and instead leave the nature of the UFO unknown. Then everyone can go home and sleep at night without fretting that some advanced civilization is using our skies as their personal playground.
Certainly they would have to be more advanced- much more- if they can get to our planet from light years way, perhaps many light years.
How many? Well, it turns out a seminal paper: Galactic Civilizations: Population Dynamics and Interstellar Diffusion’ by William Newman and Carl Sagan, in Icarus, Vol. 46, June 1981, page 293, gave some of the answers. In particular they sought to give a general answer to how long an alien colonization wave front ,might take to reach the Earth. They used the known diffusion equation of mathematical physics to work it out along with a set of reasonable assumptions..
The authors began with a standard diffusion equation, treating the spread of any colonizing civilization similarly to any medium that diffuses – for example, viruses, or general infections, or even human populations (say in the early colonization of the New World).. The basic diffusion equation used was (p. 301, eqn.12):
d(r)/dt = DIV (D(x,t,r) · grad r(x,t)
d(r)/dt = DIV (D(x,t,r) · grad r(x,t)
where, r (x,t) describes the population density at time t, and position x, and D is the diffusion coefficient in terms of x, t and r. The preceding equation is then tweaked and used as the basis for future refinements.
Rather than weary the casual reader with the dozens and dozens of equations leading to the Results section (page 314), I will simply commence at that section and then go from there.
The authors' first major computation is of N’, the steady state number of extant advanced civilizations in the Milky Way. This is essential to obtain because it is one of the key variables used to compute the mean distance between advanced civilizations in the Milky Way:
L M = (2.5 x 10 11 /N’) 1/3
Where the numerator refers to the number of stars estimated in the galaxy, and N the estimated civilization-bearing stars. The result is in parsecs, assuming the mean separation between stars in the galaxy is 1pc = 3.26 light years. (Bear in mind while our region near the outer rim is sparse with stars, the interior third of the Milky Way is teeming with them, very densely packed)
L M = (2.5 x 10 11 /N’) 1/3
Where the numerator refers to the number of stars estimated in the galaxy, and N the estimated civilization-bearing stars. The result is in parsecs, assuming the mean separation between stars in the galaxy is 1pc = 3.26 light years. (Bear in mind while our region near the outer rim is sparse with stars, the interior third of the Milky Way is teeming with them, very densely packed)
Based on a star –planet formation factor, f * ≈ 1, and a mean lifetime for an advanced civilization of 106 years, the authors obtain: N’ = f(106) = 106 , or one million advanced civilizations in the Milky Way alone.
(* Note: my inclination is actually to increase f to ≈ 2, based on the discovery of more than 950 actual extra-solar planets, which were unknown at the time Newman and Sagan published their paper. This would yield double the number of advanced civilizations, but we will retain the more conservative estimate)
Then, the mean distance between advanced civilizations in the Galaxy is:
LM = (2.5 x 10 11 /106 ) 1/3
Readers may well not appreciate this, but this is literally “next door neighbors” in terms of the galaxy!
The authors’ next task is to obtain the velocity of the colonization wavefront which they give as (Eqn. (79), page 316):
V = (v j )(D g) 1/2
Here, (v j ) is a dimensionless constant of order unity(1), and g ≈ 0.1 (based on the rate of migration of human populations today (Newman and Sagan estimated 0.01 /yr, but that was nearly 30 years ago before the age of globalization). The diffusion coefficient, D, they (very) conservatively estimate at: D ≈ (2 x 10 -8 pc 2 /yr).
LM = (2.5 x 10 11 /106 ) 1/3
Readers may well not appreciate this, but this is literally “next door neighbors” in terms of the galaxy!
The authors’ next task is to obtain the velocity of the colonization wavefront which they give as (Eqn. (79), page 316):
V = (v j )(D g) 1/2
Here, (v j ) is a dimensionless constant of order unity(1), and g ≈ 0.1 (based on the rate of migration of human populations today (Newman and Sagan estimated 0.01 /yr, but that was nearly 30 years ago before the age of globalization). The diffusion coefficient, D, they (very) conservatively estimate at: D ≈ (2 x 10 -8 pc 2 /yr).
V = (1)[ (2 x 10 -8 pc 2 /yr) (0.1 /yr)] 1/2 = 6.3 x 10 -9 pc/ yr
But the authors adjust this value (with "bias") i.e. toward younger civilizations - using historic Earth colonization rates- to: 3 x 10 - 4 pc/ yr. I removed some of that bias using a statistical algorithm, leading to the slower colonization wave rate of :
V = 4.4 x 10 -5 pc/ yr
Now, before anyone gets too ecstatic, bear in mind:
1) Sagan and Newman based their diffusion coefficient on relatively low travel speeds (v much less than c) since anything near v ~ c would be enormously expensive in terms of shielding, propulsion (page 312). They opted then for speeds far below relativistic (e.g. ≈ 40,000 km/h).
2)They deliberately assumed a “random walk” diffusion with directional bias “away from population centers".
I personally suspect the first is way too conservative and ignores the sort of ingenuity and enterprise that may well apply to a truly advanced civilization which is also space faring. And again, just because we can’t imagine humans attaining relativistic speeds, doesn’t mean advanced aliens couldn’t. So, just a shift (reduction) of the base travel time to about one ten thousandth of what the authors use enhances the diffusion wave speed, V to 0.004 pc/yr. This reduces the time to encounter to 1.57 x 10 4 yrs. or just over 15,700 years. A blink of an eye.
The conclusion here is that any of the strange craft we've seen in the previously released Pentagon files, i.e.
Could well be craft from an advanced civilization, based on fine tuning the Sagan- Newman diffusion wave equations. This doesn't prove the unusual craft seen in one released Pentagon video, e.g. https://youtu.be/Ce6ZevfbIK0 is an actual alien craft, only that this hypothesis can't be excluded. Especially in light of the Sagan-Newman paper, especially with factors tweaked after the emergence of the exoplanet discovery era. More to the point let's recall that in retrospect Sagan - a once UFO skeptic - disclosed to J. Allen Hynek that he believed them to be "real", i.e. possible alien craft, but "couldn't admit it in front of colleagues." See e.g.
https://setiathome.berkeley.edu/forum_thread.php?id=76926
Dresner, for his part, has noted the military pilots' UFO reports - on the record - cannot just be dismissed given their backgrounds, and so a crack has appeared in the "official authority" narrative. That is, "that no official authority can take seriously the idea that UFOs can be extraterrestrials." The fracture of this trope, as Dresner notes, was reinforced by the NY Times story in 2017 (by Helene Cooper, Ralph Blumenthal and Leslie Keun) concerning the Defense Department's 'Advanced Aerospace Threat Identification Program' cataloging the reports of the pilots. Further, Defense Dept. officials had confirmed its existence. In Dresner's words:
"Though this story generated some justified skepticism, it represented the first time the U.S. government acknowledged the existence of such a program."
Dresner then adds to this the research by Harvard's Avi Loeb into the nature of the strange object Oumuamua e.g. his co-authored paper appeared
All of this has led inexorably to:
"the official organs of the state now acknowledging that UFOs exist even if they are not literally using the acronym."
In other words, adopting a strategy I used in my first ever published paper nearly 40 years ago, e.g.
Transient Optical Phenomena of the Atmosphere - a Case Study
The upshot is that the cracks in the once pervasive belief in human cosmic sovereignty may finally be ready to open to the size of a yawning canyon - from a tiny fissure. Especially as officialdom is finally ready to come around and at least admit UFOs could pose aerial threats to pilots, even if they may not be ET in origin. It will be interesting in any case to see what now unfolds. This is given my now deceased middle brother Jerome (who was based at Wright -Patterson while in the USAF) predicted on July 30, 1990 (while we were at a Stahl family reunion in Pt. Charlotte, FL):
"I'm predicting the first alien craft to land in full public view will land sometime in the year 2020."
Alas, Jerry won't get to see if his alien prophecy is fulfilled. He died of a ruptured abdominal aneurysm on Aug. 5, 2016.
I end with Prof. Dresner pointing out that "in recent years the U.S. national security bureaucracy has met the first criterion (UFOs exist) and one wonders what happens to our understanding if great powers meet the second one (UFOs might be ETs)."
I venture to say if the last happens, humans may finally have arrived at cosmic maturity, via a willingness to accept they aren't the smartest denizens on the cosmic 'block' - and can deal with that letdown.
See also:
1) Sagan and Newman based their diffusion coefficient on relatively low travel speeds (v much less than c) since anything near v ~ c would be enormously expensive in terms of shielding, propulsion (page 312). They opted then for speeds far below relativistic (e.g. ≈ 40,000 km/h).
2)They deliberately assumed a “random walk” diffusion with directional bias “away from population centers".
I personally suspect the first is way too conservative and ignores the sort of ingenuity and enterprise that may well apply to a truly advanced civilization which is also space faring. And again, just because we can’t imagine humans attaining relativistic speeds, doesn’t mean advanced aliens couldn’t. So, just a shift (reduction) of the base travel time to about one ten thousandth of what the authors use enhances the diffusion wave speed, V to 0.004 pc/yr. This reduces the time to encounter to 1.57 x 10 4 yrs. or just over 15,700 years. A blink of an eye.
The conclusion here is that any of the strange craft we've seen in the previously released Pentagon files, i.e.
Newly Released Pentagon UFO Files - Not A Laughing ... - Brane Space
Could well be craft from an advanced civilization, based on fine tuning the Sagan- Newman diffusion wave equations. This doesn't prove the unusual craft seen in one released Pentagon video, e.g. https://youtu.be/Ce6ZevfbIK0 is an actual alien craft, only that this hypothesis can't be excluded. Especially in light of the Sagan-Newman paper, especially with factors tweaked after the emergence of the exoplanet discovery era. More to the point let's recall that in retrospect Sagan - a once UFO skeptic - disclosed to J. Allen Hynek that he believed them to be "real", i.e. possible alien craft, but "couldn't admit it in front of colleagues." See e.g.
Dresner, for his part, has noted the military pilots' UFO reports - on the record - cannot just be dismissed given their backgrounds, and so a crack has appeared in the "official authority" narrative. That is, "that no official authority can take seriously the idea that UFOs can be extraterrestrials." The fracture of this trope, as Dresner notes, was reinforced by the NY Times story in 2017 (by Helene Cooper, Ralph Blumenthal and Leslie Keun) concerning the Defense Department's 'Advanced Aerospace Threat Identification Program' cataloging the reports of the pilots. Further, Defense Dept. officials had confirmed its existence. In Dresner's words:
"Though this story generated some justified skepticism, it represented the first time the U.S. government acknowledged the existence of such a program."
Dresner then adds to this the research by Harvard's Avi Loeb into the nature of the strange object Oumuamua e.g. his co-authored paper appeared
All of this has led inexorably to:
"the official organs of the state now acknowledging that UFOs exist even if they are not literally using the acronym."
In other words, adopting a strategy I used in my first ever published paper nearly 40 years ago, e.g.
Transient Optical Phenomena of the Atmosphere - a Case Study
The upshot is that the cracks in the once pervasive belief in human cosmic sovereignty may finally be ready to open to the size of a yawning canyon - from a tiny fissure. Especially as officialdom is finally ready to come around and at least admit UFOs could pose aerial threats to pilots, even if they may not be ET in origin. It will be interesting in any case to see what now unfolds. This is given my now deceased middle brother Jerome (who was based at Wright -Patterson while in the USAF) predicted on July 30, 1990 (while we were at a Stahl family reunion in Pt. Charlotte, FL):
"I'm predicting the first alien craft to land in full public view will land sometime in the year 2020."
Alas, Jerry won't get to see if his alien prophecy is fulfilled. He died of a ruptured abdominal aneurysm on Aug. 5, 2016.
I end with Prof. Dresner pointing out that "in recent years the U.S. national security bureaucracy has met the first criterion (UFOs exist) and one wonders what happens to our understanding if great powers meet the second one (UFOs might be ETs)."
I venture to say if the last happens, humans may finally have arrived at cosmic maturity, via a willingness to accept they aren't the smartest denizens on the cosmic 'block' - and can deal with that letdown.
See also:
