Friday, November 21, 2014

Yes, All That Frigid Cold & Buffalo's Snow Event - Can Be Traced to Global WARMING

NASA imagery

Satellite image of Arctic at point of maximal Arctic melting. Increasing warmth in the Arctic is influencing the polar vortex causing icy cold to spill southward to North America.

As Buffalo, NY was piled under by more feet of snow on top of the 6' they already had,  random tweets could be observed on multiple forums to the effect that "So much for global warming!"

Uh no, Bozos, much much more global warming! Dumbness in scientific matters appears to always surface when events occur - like Buffalo's lake effect snow storm  - that seem to contradict what we know scientifically or otherwise incepts cognitive dissonance amongst the hoi polloi. This is no different. So let's try to trace the logical sequence here for those who somehow believe the frigid air and snow storms mean global warming is a "hoax" in the words of  Sen. Screwball,  James Inhofe (OK).

The first element is the Arctic air dipping into the States, which we now know is a result of what's been called the polar vortex.  This phenomenon was originally proposed in a theory by Prof. Gunther Weller of the University of Alaska-Fairbanks, more than 25 years ago. He defined it as a normally stable system circulating around the Arctic, like a massive cyclone. (Weller called it  a stable polar cyclone)   However, with increased warming in the Arctic-  especially more than anyplace else on Earth-  the circulation in the vortex is weakened and the vortex’s cold spills southward – discharging energy and creating the record breaking cold we’ve been seeing.

In other words, the polar vortex is the first sign of an ongoing Arctic instability associated with its extraordinary polar warming - again first revealed by Prof. Weller a early as 1986. As the melting ice proceeds faster the instability will become more and more pronounced leading to more such events in the years to come. Until the point is reached that the 'fridge' has totally defrosted leading to monumental climate upheaval and prolonged heat waves around the world - as well as the first "year of no seasons."

We see then that the polar vortex was the "necessary condition" for the massive snow event in Buffalo. For the actual occurrence there must also have been the "sufficient condition" and that was the warm waters of Lake Erie. (Note: Technically speaking, Typhoon Nuri might be regarded as the "co-necessary condition" as it approached the Aleutians from Japan and triggered the instability of the vortex.)

To remind readers, a necessary condition is one which, if absent, the entity cannot exist or the phenomenon cannot occur.. A sufficient condition is one which, if present, the entity or phenomenon must exist. For example, a sufficient condition for the existence of a hydrogen emission nebula in space would be proximity of the nebula to a radiating star. The necessary condition is the nebula exist in the first place.

For the Buffalo snow storm the necessary condition was the polar vortex (as we saw, traced to  global warming -climate change) and the sufficient condition was the frigid air descending over the highly warmed Lake Erie giving rise to a monstrous "lake effect" which generated snow volumes much much higher than normally experienced in the region.

Bottom line: Don't take the frigid temperatures or the Buffalo snowstorm as any evidence there is no global warming!

1 comment:

Fawad umair said...

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