Thursday, March 5, 2020

With Dem Moderates United & The Youth Vote "AWOL" - No One Should Be Surprised By Biden's "Lazarus" - like Rise

Recall in my February 25th post, I'd written:

"Third Way Pooh- Bah (Jonathan Cowan) recently put it:  "The moderate wing needs to consolidate support behind a single moderate candidate, and quickly.  By April it's too late."

But have they? Hell no!

If they did the basic math they'd see - from their respective numbers, percentages - they are continuing to divide their moderate vote thereby enabling Bernie to have a free ride (in one single lane) to the D-nomination.  So, as they whine about Bernie's alleged threats they really are doing nothing to stop him given they are not allowing any one centrist standard bearer to take over.  Each is too prideful and egoistic to bow out, especially the low rankers like Amy Klobuchar, to really enable a DNC-brand moderate to prevail

Well, the day before Super Tuesday and after Joe Biden's South Carolina win (after getting a critical endorsement from Rep. Jim Clyburn) all the afterthought moderate Dem candidates got the sense they were born with. They realized if they didn't finally bow out of the race and leave Biden as the lone moderate hope, Bernie would not be stopped.  Once Klobuchar, Buttigieg and Steyer left their votes had to go somewhere, and they went to Biden.  Hence, the huge Super Tuesday night for Joe.

Also helping him, and hurting Bernie, is the youth vote (the Millennials et al), did not turn out as they had in previous cycles.  This was reported last night by Intercept journalist Mehdi Hasan (on 'All In') and also by Rachel Maddow, in the course of her excellent interview with Sanders.    See e.g.

The reason for the lack of youthful turnout is troubling as well as incomprehensible.  This is given the young who are quick to chant "Ok, Boomer!" have a lot more to lose than us Boomers by failing to vote. As I had written in my November 18th post:

"Pew Research reports consistently that only 10 percent of likely voters are under 30.  Do you really want to change things so your agenda is dealt with and not ignored? Then you need to triple or quadruple that performance.

 Yet this is the age demographic most adversely affected by a plurality of federal resources being spent on seniors. So what exactly do these under 30s  (e.g. Millennials)  expect when the political class feels it can write them off each year as non-serious threats?

The voting percentages are even worse in the off year elections, which are often as important as general elections. The reason is that House seats are often up for grabs and it is in the House that budgets are made and where economic winners and losers determined. In the 2010 election, for example, barely 16% of 18-24 years olds voted compared to 28 % in 2008. 

My point is that if you really want to impress me and other Boomers, don't invoke a dumb meme and then wear it out. Get your butts out to vote - in every election- and change your lot in life by pushing the political class to recognize you instead of ignoring you.  Even more impressive, put down your cell phones and the incessant, vacuous search for 'likes'  and cut out the social media -
instagram blabber.  Instead,  emulate the Parkland students' style of activism and maybe even voter enrollment instead. "

Have the young on whom Bernie depends done that? Evidently not in the Super Tuesday states, according to stats delivered by Mehdi Hasan and Rachel Maddow last night - from exit polls.  Also as we read in today's NY Times ( 'How Huge Voter Turnout Eluded Bernie Sanders On Super Tuesday')

"In state after state, there has been little evidence — at least outside California — that he has generated higher turnout among young voters. And though he has promised to deliver record turnout, it may in fact be Mr. Biden who is accomplishing that, lifted by his strong support among black voters.

In Texas, where Mr. Biden prevailed over Mr. Sanders, only 15 percent of voters were younger than 30, and nearly two-thirds were 45 or older, according to exit polls. ..  In no state did people younger than 30 account for more than 20 percent of the electorate, based on exit polls, and in most states they accounted for 15 percent or less.  Because so few young people voted, it did not matter that Mr. Sanders won them by huge margins, because Mr. Biden won the much more plentiful older voters."

 So maybe these youngsters - more invested in their smart phone texting than voting -are ok with the status quo of monstrous student loan debt,  marginal health care options and more attention to Boomers than to their own issues. But see,  the Boomers get out and vote in every election,  they don't slack off like these young, social media addicts. So politicos know they can't afford to ignore them or they get voted out.   

As for Bernie, with Bloomberg now backing Trump with his endorsement and money, there is little doubt unless he gets that youth vote turnout in the next 6 states he isn't going to get the nomination.  Especially if he's behind in delegates at the final bell in the Super Tuesday vote count. (California could still decide it).. The reason is that a  runnerup, even a few delegates behind, has a herculean task overtaking the front runner - because of only getting fractions of delegates in each subsequent primary. 

The question remaining is whether Biden can really beat Trump.  After all, he's not really been vetted under real heat from one opponent. A real vetting would be in the form of a head to head debate between Biden and Bernie early next week - before the next set of primaries. So voters can really see what they are getting.  In the meantime, Rachel Maddow had best resign herself she isn't going to get a one on one interview with Joe, like she had with Sanders last night.  

It might expose more weaknesses than his campaign team wants. Oh yeah, the DOW bounced back up yesterday on the Biden results. Businesses, investors had earlier been "petrified" of a Sanders' presidency  and what executive orders he might issue or policy changes.   But watch for markets to tank today, as the supply side threat of COVID-19 returns to take precedence in investor consciousness.

See also:


"Being of unoriginal mind but keenly exploitative of whatever maliciousness worked before, congressional Republicans are now set on recreating Hillary Clinton's nonexistent email scandal in the evil-clown form of nonexistent Biden scandals.

They'll hold public hearings to humiliate and badger, issue subpoenas to intimidate and bankrupt, employ hundreds of fanged shysters to play Roy Cohn; and all the while their corrupt but unaccountable president will strong-arm the FBI to conduct illicit political investigations into Biden's innocent activities — the dark and phony proceedings of which will leak daily via the White House."

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