Showing posts with label Poisson statistics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Poisson statistics. Show all posts

Tuesday, April 14, 2015

One Of The Most Massive Scientific Projects Which Few Know About

Image result for brane space, limits of scientific  inquiry,  Meudon

This would be the monumental Solar -Terrestrial Predictions Workshop and its relevant volume (over 630 pages - see cover) completed in the 1980s. The project saw the input from over two  hundred solar and space physicists covering every aspect of the problem of solar-terrestrial interactions, including: long, medium and short term solar  forecasting, geomagnetic activity and auroral (substorm) forecasts, as well as ionospheric predictions.

I was at the University of the West Indies at the time, and recruited by Dr. Donald F. Neidig of the Air Force Geophysics Laboratory to make a contribution to the specialized area of statistical limitations on flare forecasts, and specifically how Poisson statistics play a role in such forecasting. My paper ‘Limitations of Empirical-Statistical Methods of Solar Flare Prognostication’ appears on pp. 276-284 of the Proceedings and received much attention from the other contributors - since of course it impacted in multiple ways on their work as well.

Sadly, this massive work - the end product of millions of man-hours of intense scientific  collaboration and research-   is now mostly relegated to the mists of time forgotten. Even googling the header 'Solar Terrestrial Predictions Proceedings- Meudon' brings up nothing of relevance or substance.  Like so many things, because it was never digitized,  it was as if it never occurred or the work never published (The final book, though dated '1984' - did not actually appear in print format until 1987.)

The concept of a Poisson-based “delay time” for build up of magnetic free energy, was first postulated by me in 1984,  for application to “SID” (sudden ionospheric disturbance-generating) flares, with the release attendant on a change in initial free magnetic energy (E m = B2/2m ) given by[i]:

/   t  { òv  B2/2m  dV} = 1/m  òv div[(v  X B) X B] dV 

 -   òv  {han | Jms |2 }dV       

where the first term on the right side embodies footpoint motion, and the second, joule dissipation, but with Jms the current density at marginal stability – since the marginal stability hypothesis is required for a driven process, and han  is the anomalous resistivity. In the same paper, it was shown how the flare distribution corresponds to a Poisson process of the form P(t) =   exp (- l)   lt  / t!, where theoretically the Poisson mean rate of occurrence is: lm =   l Dt, with Dt  = t,  assuming the time interval Dt = 1d. In reality, measuring constraints (say achieving uniformly equal time intervals between successive Mt. Wilson magnetograms), will usually ensure  Dt ¹ 1d, so Dt  ¹  t thereby introducing a selection effect variability, complicating computation of P(t).  It was also suggested, but not proven, that variability in l arises from  variability in vertical magnetic gradients (Bz) and critical changes in the associated current density at marginal stability (Jzms) such that: d(Ñ(+ Bz) ) Þd Jzms Þ dJz  ( dt)/ dt, where Jz  is the vertical current density associated with putative footpoints magnetic induction (+ Bz ) and rate of change in |Bz| modulated by significant evolutionary changes (dt) in the lifetime of the magnetic field, especially critical if  dt < Dt


Since magnetic gradients and associated scale lengths (ℓB) also will change in time, there would be scope for accepting a Poisson process of form P(t) = f(dt,dℓ) which would embody an energy modulation with some inbuilt variance, with the latter having to be known to determine how much energy might be released and when. In other words, the differing scale factors inevitably introduced variabilities that were difficult to account for. The Poisson statistics therefore had to be able to take these differing modalities into account.

More recently, Wheatland and Craig (2003)[2] have argued that the waiting time distribution (WTD) in individual active regions is consistent with a Poisson process in time, which would conform to: P(t) =   l(t) exp (-lt)  where l(t) is the mean rate of flaring or “tick rate”.  It must be noted here that a priori l(t) ¹ lm Dt since the latter variability also takes into account variation in data indices, selection effects arising therefrom (already noted in a paper I had co-authored with Constance Sawyer, in Solar Physics, 1985,  98, 193.) In effect, we had forecast the later work of Wheatland and Craig by at least 18 years.

Being appointed to assist in this huge project - never mind it's no longer on most peoples' radars - remains one of the high points of my scientific career!




[i] Stahl, P.A. and  Achong, A.: 1984a, Proceedings of the Second Caribbean Physics Conference, Ed. L.L. Moseley, pp. 1-11.

[2] Wheatland, M.S. and Craig, I.J.D.: 2003, Astrophys. J., Vol. 595, p. 458

Friday, June 27, 2014

A Cavity Resonator Model Applied to Solar Loops and Flare Triggers (1)



The problem of identifying a unique trigger for solar flares has been pursued for over 4 decades, but with little to show for it. In this post I examine a possible approach that might be productive, especially after higher resolution images become available from a planned solar telescope.


1.     Background to Cavity Resonator Approaches:


On the Sun itself, the 5-minute oscillations, more figuratively described from time to time as a “ringing of the photosphere” were first tied to waves trapped in a resonant cavity by Schatzman, 1956[2]. The gist of the model is that the upper and lower cavity boundaries reflect waves into the cavity and thereby engender a standing wave, which may either be acoustic or gravity.

 Properties of generic coronal cavity resonators were elucidated by Hollweg (1984)[3] whereby a coronal loop is treated as three relatively disjoint regions, separated by discontinuities. The standing waves produced are invoked to account for energy dissipation and heating in the corona. Some aspects of Hollweg’s model (e.g. reflection properties of Alfven waves, quality factor Q, relation to wave number vectors) are also employed in my own resonator model for solar flare inception.

 Where I diverge from both the (e.g. Federov et al) auroral cavity resonator and the coronal one proposed by Hollweg is that in this flare trigger model I adopt a dual resonator for a given compact flare loop. The basic sketch is shown above. Thus, to trigger a specific (e.g. compact) flare the conditions must be such that the Q-(quality) value in each resonator reinforce the other. In my generic model, I include a small coronal arch cavity resonator with some resemblance to Hollweg’s and a large scale loop resonator which depends on the oscillations arising from magnetic (Alfven) waves in combination with the loop’s twist (and associated kink instability)

 The difference is that I go into much more detail to incorporate ex-post facto data into my model to show how the magnitudes of the changing physical quantities vary not only in the corona in its pre-flare state, but during the flare as well. As an application ansatz, dual resonators in the electrical engineering setting often use closed-loop resonators in order to shift down the original resonator and arrive at a very small structure (e.g. Collado et al, 2007)[4]. In the flare trigger model context this would be the kernel or coronal loop apex resonator.  In the engineering context, mirrors are sometimes employed to linear cavities (analogous to the extended coronal loop with its primary cavity at the apex) to obtain simultaneous dual wavelength oscillations. It is precisely within the scope of these dual oscillations that the flare trigger can be conceived – e.g. for specific cases when a dual resonance is achieved and with it the maximum instability.

2.     Motivation:

Having established that a hybrid flare model is the most plausible one to approach the 1B/M4 flare of November 5, 1980, I now single out the key feature for the flare trigger. Before proceeding, let us inspect the gestalt for what this article is all about, as depicted in the schematic below:
No photo description available.

The diagram depicts the generic inputs and processes entering the hybrid flare model (in the main rectangle), which includes components for R (reliability statistics), H (helicity considerations) and Poisson statistics. Thus, the hybrid model seeks to reconcile all of these, as well as recognizing the inputs from two paradigms: the E-J and the B-v.  For example, the B-v paradigm and its assumptions figure more prominently in the reliability analyses as well as the magnetic helicity. (E.g. see: http://brane-space.blogspot.com/2010/10/look-at-magnetic-helicity.html )  The E-J paradigm factors more into the basis for Poisson variations based on the manner in which the current densities (J) arise and how the E-field is generated.  The putative flare trigger attempts to make use of all of these.

What is desired is a model that approximately replicates the event sequence for the region AR2776 such that the flares occurring conform to the average Poisson  activity:  l (av) =  2.6 x 10-5 s-1  and the length, resonance variations described above imply a twisted cavity (dual) resonator over the region defined by (l1 + ℓ1^ +  ℓ2^   +  xi ).  (See e.g. my post of June 22nd: http://brane-space.blogspot.com/2014/06/quantifying-solar-loop-oscillations.html

Where:   0 <   xi  <  1.1 x 106 m

The basic geometry is shown in Fig. 1 (top) in the region of the apex, and primary coronal cavity. It is assumed that with compressional Alfven waves the loop aperture can vary, from a1 to the outer radius taken as r1. This variation could well account for the uncertainty in source-kernel dimensions:


The electric field E(z) shown in Fig. 1 is described according to:


E(z)  =   Eo cos w(t – z/ vp)

Where Eo  denotes the uniform (non-varying field magnitude) and  vp =  c sin(J)

is the phase velocity with J the pitch angle of the twist component for relative helicity (H(R) [T]).

The model works via the basic loop changing its effective resonator length (for which there is an associated resonator angular frequency wo) and twist (F(r)).  Radial surfaces (rs < r)  form in the loop apex (small resonant cavity) for E-field resonating corrections modeled after the J o (ar)   Bessel function.  The J o (ar)   induced field in turn generates azimuthal corrections in the axial B-field that alters the twist of the gross loop.

Thus, the twist dependence is (see also http://brane-space.blogspot.com/2013/04/looking-at-bessel-functions-applications.html):


F(r) =   L J1(ar)/ r J o (ar)   =    L B j (r) / r Bz (r)     = L E z (r)  /  r E j (r)

Such that: E z (r)  ® B j (r) ® E1 z (r) ®   B1 j (r) ® E2 z (r) ®   B2 j (r)


E j (r) ® B z (r) ®  E1 j (r) ® B1 z (r) ®  E2 j (r) ® B2 z (r) . . . . En j (r) ® Bn z (r)

From the secondary, tertiary etc. fields inner nested radii aij are generated which conform to ratios related to the Bessel functions. The key point of the mutually generated fields is that they operate according to a positive feedback which ultimately incepts a resonance condition and explosive release of energy. The radii in turn can be used to obtain wave modes associated with a given oscillation period for the resonator. The relative E-field strengths successively generated for the ideal cavity coronal resonator are defined by the Bessel series:

Jm (x) = (1/ 2m m!) xm [1 -  x 2/ 22 1! (m + 1)  +  x4/ 242! (m + 1) (m + 2) -  ….

.(-1)j x2j / 2 2j j! (m + 1) (m + 2)……(m + j) +  …]

Which may be simplified for the m = 0 case  to:


J0 (x) = 1 -  (x/2)2 + 1/(2!)2 (x/4)4 – 1/ (3!)2 (x/2)6 +  .




Where x for the E-field is defined x =  Ö mo Öℰo w r  =   2.405



For which a key cut-off radius is defined at the surface rs  = r .  Other surfaces  (si) may be defined for zeros of J0 (x).  Meanwhile, coronal loop oscillation periods and emergence have been well explicated by a number of authors (e.g. Edwin and Roberts, 1983, op. cit., Andries et al, 2005[5])
(More to come)



[1] E.N. Fedorov, V.A. Pilipenko, M.J. Engebretson, and T. J. Rosenber: 2004, ‘Alfven Wave Modulation of the Auroral Acceleration Region’, in Earth Planets Space, 56, p. 649.
[2] E. Schatzman: 1956, Ann. Astrophysics, 19, 45.
[3] Joseph V. Hollweg, Solar Phys., 91, 269, 1984
[4] C. Collado, J. Pozo, J. Mateu and J.M. O’Callaghan: 2007, European Microwave Week.
[5] J. Andries, M. Goosens, J.V. Hollweg, I. Arregui and T. Van Doorselaere,: 2005,  Astronomy & Astrophysics,  430, 1109.