Sunday, March 13, 2011

An Obama Landslide for 2012

Barack Obama in 2008. He's due for a landslide victory next year, if he doesn't make any bonehead mistakes!

Some of the assumed GOP field of presidential candidates for 2012. All are in for a shellacking if they're dumb enough to run vs. Barack.

Generally, it's dangerous making political predictions more than a year in advance of elections. However, in the case of next year's general elections, I feel very confident making at least one: that President Barack Obama will win back his office in a landslide worthy of Ronald Reagan's (in 1984) v. Walter Mondale.

There are a number of reasons for making such a forecast, but let me focus on the major ones:

1) The field of GOP candidates challenging is downright pathetic.

Indeed, the only one who's tossed his hat into the ring so far is Newt Gingrich (he of many wives, and who left a wife that had cancer - some "family values"!). The others like Tim Pawlenty, Mitch Romney, Mike Huckabee, and Sarah Palin, make noises but none have committed. The buzz is that they lack the money to compete with Obama, so are waiting until almost the time of the Iowa primaries before doing anything.

None of these characters offers a real threat to the prez and I believe they themselves know it. Palin, while much hoopla has been made over her, still has negatives way too high to be taken seriously, surpassing the 57% mark. Even at special conservative conclaves, when straw polls have been taken of assorted forecast contenders (like her, Huckabee, Romney, Pawlenty etc) she's barely come in at better than 11% or well within the lower tier. What is it about her that even the conservos distrust? Errrr.....mayhap that she only has half a brain? ("I can still see Russia when I look out my front door")

Of course, there's always the possibility of a "dark horse". One such might be the former ruler and owner of Godfather's Pizza, Herman Cain - often referred to in endearing terms as "my people" by white rustic, pro -Confederate Southerners . Well, doh! Ever heard of 'Uncle Toms'? These were the house slaves who did the White Massah's spying work for him, and that usually meant undermining the welfare of field slaves, often squealing on them ('Massah, dey's readin' books!') to curry special favors (fewer or no whuppins' for them and their pals). They pop up like so many weeds in a given election array, as they also have amongst the tea baggers.

If Herman Cain turns out to the the GOP-Johnny Reb coalition's "Obama" then I am truly sorry for them. Because he will get his tail buried even more by the real Obama than either Palin, or Gingrich. How 'bout a 537-0 electoral rout?

2) The Dem and Socialist -leaning base is fired up. This is over the fascist GOP Gubernators' attempts to destroy the unions in this country, by ending collective bargaining rights. We've seen Kasich do it in Ohio, as well as Walker in Wisconsin (but look for the latter's recall in 2012).

The point is, while the Dem base had been listless and de-energized after Obama "gave away the farm" with the December Bush tax cuts extension (retaining tax cuts for the wealthiest when he stated clearly he'd disallow them during his 2008 campaign- thereby adding $140 billion to the deficit that didn't need to be there) the base is now manning the barricades. They're energized because they understand the Repukes and their Nazi clowns* are out to destroy the Democratic Party in perpetuity. If they can slaughter the unions and their funding, like they did ACORN, that leaves but one group left - the young, college voters- and they're now targeting that demographic via new voter ID regulations.

The Dem subgroups aren't unaware of what's going on, and MSNBC hosts like Ed Schulz and Rachel Maddow have helped them see their very lives and futures are on the line. Look for this sense of assault to ramp up during next year, culminating just in time for the November elections.

Look for key groups to get involved in that election, such as the ACLU, and The Southern Poverty Law Center ( as the threat to denying Dem voters their franchise becomes ever more immediate. Look for those groups to also keep a sharp and wary eye on the Sunshine state after it rescinded legislation that would have allowed felons the right to vote. This means, of course, that "felon's lists" might be used on black Democratic voters again, like they were in the election of 2000 - when more than 57,000 in Duval County were so maliciously listed (deliberately and against the law) to award GeeDumbya Bush the state. Now, with a new Repuke governor, Rick Scott, that threat to steal Florida is again in play.

3) The Repukes have overplayed their hands in terms of gutting the Affordable Health Care Act, which they disparage as "Obama care". The fact is that key elements have kicked in, such as parents' right to keep their adult children on their own insurance plans until the age of 26, as well as an end to denying people insurance because of pre-existing conditions and elimination of most of the "doughnut hole" that hitherto had ensnared millions of seniors with prescription drug plans under Medicare Part D. Recent polls in Colorado show, for example, that more than 61% of voters approve this health plan coverage because of the very significant benefits conferred. As one put it, writing in The Denver Post Letters:

"The fact I no longer have to worry about my son not getting insured - because of cerebral palsy- is a huge relief. I can finally sleep at night."

This is echoed in many other quarters.

4) The Repukes are also overplaying their hands in the budget battle with Obama. Even those voters who don't persistently read the news are hearing from their close friends or co-workers how the Republicans want to take away vouchers for homeless veterans, and plan to remove the home heating subsidies for poor seniors, while they also lower the boom on school nutrition programs for poor kids.

The latest highlight is sure to be the Reeps' demand to cut funding for NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) for weather forecasting funds (get ready out there in Okie-land to set up your own early warning for tornadoes!) and also eliminate a planned tsunami early warning system based in Hawaii. (Really brilliant idea there, Goopers, after the devastating Japanese earthquake and tsunamis!)

The final bust will arrive if the Goopers allow a shutdown of government, meaning no VA pension or disability checks, and no Social Security checks.

That will also be the final nail in the GOOPS' coffins for 2012.

As I said, I forecast an Obama landslide, and the only thing that will prevent it is a major blooper on his part (e.g. getting involved in another war or invasion, or asking to privatize Social Security or Medicare) or ......if he allows yet another Bush tax cuts extension next year. (Which I believe will narrow his popularity enough among his base that it'll prevent a landslide, but still yield a respectable margin, along the lines of what he earned in '08, maybe a bit smaller - minus Virginia, Ohio or Florida. )

As I say to any Repukes: Bring it on!
* See: Old Nazis, The New Right and The Republican Party, 1991, South End Press, by Russ Bellant. Documents the extensive links between Nazis, the S.S. and The Republican Party since the 1960s.

No comments: