New IPCC Finding Shows More Rapid Ocean Warming - And Accelerated Path To Calamity

Devastation in Puerto Rico following Hurricane Maria, which climate scientists agree was spawned by warmer ocean temperatures from global warming.

Even as we've learned of the world now projected in an ominous United Nations report — prepared by The Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change, a new subsidiary report warns of warmer than ever oceans.  According to the last major assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the world's oceans have taken up over 90% of the excess heat trapped by greenhouse gases.

This new study says that every year, for the past 25 years, we have put about 150 times the amount of energy used to generate electricity globally into the seas - 60% more than previous estimates.   This poses serious problems going forward, not the least of which is the threat to ocean life (such as corals) from warmer temperatures, e.g.

Dying coral reef from warmer ocean temperatures (left and a healthy reef.

As well as rising sea levels, and more frequent Category 5 hurricanes (such as Maria, see top graphic) which feed off higher ocean temperatures.

 The IPCC team bases its predictions about how much the Earth is warming by adding up all the excess heat that is produced by the known amount of greenhouse gases that have been emitted by human activities. This new calculation shows that far more heat than we thought has been going into oceans. But it also means that far more heat than we thought has been generated by the warming gases we have emitted. 

All the extra heat being absorbed by the oceans means not only a much greater difficulty of containing increased warming - even to 2 C- but also many deleterious effects for ocean life itself.  According to  Laure Resplandy , a geoscientist at Princeton University who led the startling study published Wednesday in the journal Nature:

"If you look at the IPCC 1.5C, there are big challenges ahead to keep those targets, and our study suggests it's even harder because we close the window for those lower pathways.A warmer ocean will hold less oxygen, and that has implications for marine ecosystems.  There is also sea level, if you warm the ocean more you will have more thermal expansion and therefore more sea level rise."

The critical element is the fact that as waters get warmer they release more carbon dioxide and oxygen into the air.  As Dr. Resplandy made clear:

"When the ocean warms, the amount of these gases that the ocean is able to hold goes down,"  

Adding:

"So what we measured was the amount lost by the oceans, and then we can calculate how much warming we need to explain that change in gases."

The additional IPCC findings help resolve a long-running puzzle about the rate of ocean warming before 2007. when more reliable measurements from devices called “Argo floats” were put to use worldwide. Before that, differing types of temperature records — and an overall lack of them — contributed to uncertainty  about how quickly the oceans were heating up.

The higher-than-expected amount of heat in the oceans means more heat is being retained within Earth’s climate system each year, rather than escaping into space. In essence, more heat in the oceans signals that global warming is more advanced than scientists thought.

As Dr. Resplandy put it:

"We thought that we got away with not a lot of warming in both the ocean and the atmosphere for the amount of CO2 that we emitted.  But we were wrong. The planet warmed more than we thought. It was hidden from us just because we didn’t sample it right. But it was there. It was in the ocean already".

 Of course, this again puts the lie to climate change denier Holman Jenkins' recent bloviations, e.g. 'How Greens Humiliate Themselves', WSJ 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-greens-humiliate-themselves-1540939433

That there is oh so much uncertainty and climate scientists are just squandering time and money trying to nail down any real increase in global temperatures.   Of course, this is utter codswallop which merely says more about the deficiencies of the Journal's op -ed writers than anything else. 

Given ocean temperatures are rising more rapidly than previously calculated, that  leaves nations even less time to dramatically cut the world’s emissions of carbon dioxide. That is, assuming there is any hope in limiting global warming to the ambitious goal of 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels by the end of this century.  Many newer results show this is overly optimistic and neglecting other factors in play, e.g.

Climate report understates threat

Excerpt:

"So far, average temperatures have risen by one degree Celsius. Adding 50 percent more warming to reach 1.5 degrees won’t simply increase impacts by the same percentage—bad as that would be. Instead, it risks setting up feedbacks that could fall like dangerous dominos, fundamentally destabilizing the planet. This is analyzed in a recent study showing that the window to prevent runaway climate change and a “hot house” super-heated planet is closing much faster than previously understood."

Even as we've now been informed of the new ocean warming factor, we also have found out - more than than a year after the fact-  the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency took down information on climate change from its website for an “update”, it now seems uncertain whether it will ever reappear.

In April last year, the EPA replaced its online climate change section with a holding page that said the content was being updated to “reflect the agency’s new direction under President Donald Trump”.

Information previously found at epa.gov/climatechange made it clear that human activity was warming the planet, resulting in harm to Americans’ health as well as crucial ecosystems on which humans depend.

The “update” page has now given way to a page that simply states: “We want to help you find what you are looking for.” Below, one finds links to search other areas of the EPA website, as well as to an archived “snapshot” of the site from the day before Trump became president in January 2017. The switch was observed by the Environmental Data & Governance Initiative, which tracks changes in government websites

In the words of Juidth Enick, former EPA special administrator:.

“It’s an embarrassment. It is a ghost page.  It’s a bit like Amazon not allowing the public to order books via its website – it’s that fundamental. There’s no other issue at the EPA more important than climate change; it affects air, water, health and whether large parts of the world will survive.”

The likely culprit responsible? Scott Pruitt, the climate pseudo - skeptic who was Trump’s pick as EPA administrator until he resigned in July amid a long-running ethics scandal, repeatedly questioned basic scientific understanding of climate change while he headed the agency, such as whether carbon dioxide is a primary driver of planetary warming.

Tuesday provides a small chance to get it right. But if voters fail to follow through, or too many are bamboozled by the "threat" of a caravan of poor Honduran migrants, well they will have a real existential threat to fret over in a dozen years.

See also:

We Have 12 Years to Save—or Lose—Our Only Home

Nicole Wallace Is Correct: Trump's Lies On Puerto Rico Maria Death Toll Mark a "New Level of Horror" With Lying Maggot

"I tell ya, three thousand didn't really die from the hurricane in Puerto Rico! The Dems made it all up with their media pals!"

Let us accept as a plausible proposition that any "leader" who lies as easily as he breathes is no use at all, posing not only a national security threat but a dereliction of duty and violation to our Constitution that can only merit being hung by the neck - metaphorically if not actually. (And with Manafort finally flipping we now know Mueller's noose is  rapidly tightening!)  

  We now know that  six days ago, speaking in North and South Dakota and in the air on his way back to Washington Trump publicly made 125 false or misleading statements — in a period of time that totaled only about 120 minutes....The day before, this human refuse  made 74 false or misleading claims, many at a campaign rally in Montana.  
 
Lying to his idiot mutt supporters in campaign mode is one thing but denying the deaths of 2,975  Puerto Ricans who perished in Hurricane Maria is another. The walking filth actually accused the dems of rigging the numbers, inflating the grim figures. His disreputable, vile tweets included: 

"3000 people did not die in the two hurricanes that hit Puerto Rico. When I left the Island, AFTER the storm had hit, they had anywhere from 6 to 18 deaths. As time went by it did not go up by much. Then, a long time later, they started to report really large numbers, like 3000."

And also:

"This was done by the Democrats in order to make me look as bad as possible when I was successfully raising Billions of Dollars to help rebuild Puerto Rico. If a person died for any reason, like old age, just add them onto the list. Bad politics!"

The mayor of San Juan, Carmen Yulín Cruz, responded to Trump on Twitter: “This is what denial following neglect looks like: Mr Pres in the real world people died on your watch. YOUR LACK OF RESPECT IS APPALLING!"

Adding:

“Thousands of Americans, our diaspora & latinos that came to PR to care for us and become advocates for our people deserve better than this,” she continued. “Simply put: delusional, paranoid, and unhinged from any sense of reality. Trump is so vain he thinks this is about him. NO IT IS NOT.”


So Mayor Cruz - like many of us - already knew the degenerate nature of this human pestilence, but as MSNBC host Nicole Wallace put it yesterday afternoon this latest exhibition crossed into the realm of the horrific. In her own contempt-filled words:  "Good God! This is a whole new level of horror!" 

Indeed it is, and the national nightmare will continue until we get rid of this pestilence fouling the highest office.  One thing we cannot do, as film maker Michael Moore warned two nights ago on a special 'All In'- is allow this despicable turd to remain in office permanently, even if he loses another election -electoral votes included. Now we see in his latest egomaniacal outburst he lacks even a scintilla of empathy for all those lives lost.

Who can forget the video images of how this demented,  traitorous slime tossed paper towels to a crowd on his one and only visit to the island territory last year, after Maria struck.  The video clip has  been played thousands of times, including two days ago on MSNBC which prompted the scum's latest pushback to try to salvage whatever shred of reputation he has left. (Which is mainly as the nation's number one liar, after now passing 5,000 lies in office.)

 Despite significant evidence showing nearly 3,000 people perished in the devastating storm  last year, Trump insisted that the official death toll was a "political scheme" (by the Dems) to make him look bad. The piece of crap vermin seems not to grasp that hurricane deaths are both proximate and distal. In the first case, one may be killed in a sudden storm surge, or being trapped in electrified water after flooding and power lines come down - during the storm proper. In the second, lack of a/c may cause his diabetic or other meds to go bad and engender a medical crisis that takes his life.   There is full agreement that either or both of these causes contributes to the toll of a major hurricane, but the brainless, lying stooge sitting in the Oval Office appears not to grasp that. Instead, he makes those deaths all about himself, how he is being treated or perceived. Worse, he creates even further faction, further polarization in an already fractured nation.

Let's get it straight here that any so-called "leader" who is more concerned with inflating his own ego than protecting the nation and who can't even discern reality deserves to be hung. He is a useless piece of waste, useless to the citizens not only of Puerto Rico but the mainland too, especially after we learned $10 million was surreptitiously transferred from FEMA to ICE  (to expedite more deportations etc.) even before the start of hurricane season.  A fell fiscal move sure to make the post-disaster effort for Florence much more challenging with fewer funds and resources. 

We back up here to point out, for those who need catching up, that Puerto Rico’s government raised the official death toll from 64 people to 2,975 late last month following the publication of new research by George Washington University’s Milken Institute School of Public Health.  Though the official death toll was changed, reports by other academic institutions and newspapers estimated the death toll was "in the thousands" as early as December 2017.  

 After Trump dispatched his lying tweets, GWU professor Carlos Santos-Burgoa replied:

"We're giving Trump evidence.  It should not generate political controversy"

But of course it would to a congenital fucktard who isn't qualified to be a porto-potty cleaner.

Trump's denial of evidence right in front of him reminds many of us of Woodward's portrayal of the  scum in his book, 'FEAR'.  Specifically,  at a meeting with Pentagon brass when the POS wanted the U.S. to remove support for the South Korean military last year,  claiming it "cost too much money".   Gen. Mattis and others had to try to drill deep enough into his vacuous brain to grasp those troops weren't supported for their benefit but for our security too.  At another point a trio  (including econ aide Gary Cohn) tried to get the putz to understand the negative effects of tariffs, but he remained obdurate saying "I've been thinking like this for thirty years"!.  In other words, impervious to modifying his take or comprehension of reality after data is presented, a highly dangerous trait for a leader.

Meanwhile, on Thursday afternoon, a statement from George Washington University  defended its research, saying, as reported : “We stand by the science underlying our study, which found there were an estimated 2,975 excess deaths in Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria.”   Did Dotard accept this? Nope, he doubled down on his denial and batshit crazy conspiracy theory that it was a Democratic plot. 

The sad and savage truth, showing the extent to which Trump blew the response as badly as Bush Jr. did with Katrina?  Maria, which made landfall as a category 4 storm, caused an island-wide power outage, almost completely knocked out communications including satellite phones and left 80% of the island without access to water in the days following the storm. The majority of the island’s 69 hospitals were without electricity or fuel for generators a week after Maria made landfall. The supply chain crumbled, preventing people across the island from getting food, water and fuel.  That is where the distal source of hurricane deaths entered.

Given all this, the single job for Trump and the federal government was to use hundreds of chopper forays (from an offshore ship)  to get supplies to those in the island's hinterlands.  This did not happen and so in terms of any "grade", Trump and FEMA get a big fat F.  That Trump could deny and lie and concoct conspiracy ideations now to protect is ego is indeed a "whole new level of horror" as Nicole Wallace put it. And I'd add, a whole new level of betrayal.

Trump’s claim that when he left the island there had been “anywhere from six to 18 deaths” does not acknowledge that before he arrived, Puerto Rico’s health secretary said it was fair to assume the number would rise. Centro de Periodismo Investigativo (CPI), a local investigative journalism project, also reported before Trump’s visit that hospital mortuaries were at capacity and people were not able to bury dead relatives because funeral homes were unable to operate.

There is also no indication Trump raised “billions” to help rebuild the island and the government’s Federal Emergency Management Agency  has said its recovery efforts were strained after responding to two other major hurricanes weeks before Maria.  All in all, in a display of yet more vicious white nationalism, the Trumpite bastards found it more useful to let over 3 million brown people perish than help them.  For that Trump merits hanging like he does for his traitorous conspiracy with the Russians to get elected.

See also:

http://brane-space.blogspot.com/2017/10/after-puerto-rico-can-we-now-agree-that.html

And:

North Carolina Politicians Have Decried the Climate-Change Science That Makes Hurricane Florence so Dangerous

And:

Barbara Gottlieb

Article Tools E-mail | Print Comments (0)

Energy Policy | Environmental Policy

Pipeline in Hurricane Florence’s Potential Path Poses Added Danger

Are Mensa's Libertarians Really As Dumb As They Write?

Even wifey was appalled to read one of the letters published in the latest Mensa Bulletin,  (January, 'Brainwaves' p. 10) written by a Mensan named Dennis Ward. It read thus:

"Taxes! Taxes! Taxes! People are always complaining about taxes, so the  'smart' members of Mensa have the right solution: It is neither ethical nor moral to force anyone to do anything against their will unless in self-defense. Many people will ask: 'How will we run the government without taxes?'  My answer is that it is neither ethical nor moral to force anyone to do anything against their will unless in self-defense."

Wow! This character repeats a mantra and he makes it appear as if he's delivering some unique wisdom from atop Mt. Olympus,  channeling a Mensan version of Zeus. Give me a break! At best this is regurgitated  from Libby idol Ayn Rand, who blabbered in her book, The Virtue of Selfishness (p. 116):

"Since the imposition of taxes does represent an initiation of force...in a fully free society, taxation, or payment for government services, would be voluntary. Since the proper services of government - the police, the army, the law courts - are demonstrably needed by individual citizens, and affect the individual's interests directly, they should be willing to pay for such services as they pay for insurance.....Men would voluntarily pay for insurance protecting their contracts."

One method of such voluntary government financing would be a government lottery"

and (ibid.)

"A fully free society is one that has been constitutionally reduced to only its most proper, basic functions"


This is also undoubtedly where the pet libertarian canard that “taxes = theft’ comes from. But let's look at it objectively:  the reductio ad absurdum conclusion is that every human resides in a kind of bubble or vacuum wherein he or she presumably controls all.  Face invasion by a foreign army? Develop your own counterforce, or....round up enough soldiers to try to protect you.  Your town flattened by an F5 tornado and all electric power and water gone? Well, try to get neighbors together and dig your own wells for H2O while you cut lumber to put up new telephone poles and look around for electric power lines.  H3N2 flu killing one person after another in your town, and there's no flu vaccine - or Tamiflu - because, well you didn't want to pay  taxes to support the CDC or government health services? Hey, no problemo! Go mix up some camphor balls and listerine and see if that works!

 This elicits two questions, not entirely unrelated: 1) Is it practical to expect an individual in any society to shoulder all responsibility for all possible adverse events - that may not only affect him, but also others in his proximity or region?, and 2) Is it possible to have a "fully free society"?

Let's take the last first and note the libertarian creed has a primary fetish for "full freedom" especially on the individual level.   But this arises from fantasies that bear no relation to the real world we inhabit. This includes such natural threats and affronts to individual freedom as: floods, fire storms, mudslides - such as recently swallowed dozens of California homes, monster hurricanes, tornadoes,
and disease pandemics - say from Influenza,  Zika or dengue fever.

I believe we can agree that each of these, if occurring in a populated place, impinges adversely on the inhabitants' freedom, say to live or even prosper. In nearly every case resources are suddenly limited, including electric power, water and even food. The frequency of these natural enemies of total freedom also appears to be increasing as climate change goes on.

The conclusion then is that a fully free, autonomous and independent society is an impossible concept. This is because no one living on this planet - in any society, country or continent- - can be free of the vicissitudes and vagaries of the multiple possible natural disasters, events that can afflict any given community. Once your domain  is devastated by any natural disaster of any form your "freedom" becomes circumscribed.  Ask the Puerto Ricans still without electric power after Hurricane Maria.  These hapless folk cannot cook their rice, access potable water, refrigerate their medications or watch television news. Or even have lights by which their offspring can do homework - hence why many thousands have abandoned the island to live in the U.S.

By extension then, we can generalize and assert once your domain is subject to any kind of natural disaster (including a pandemic flu) your basic freedom to live and prosper is limited.  This axiom applies to all humans across the planet, no exceptions.

As a corollary let me add that ALL individuals exist as part of communities, they do not exist unto themselves as one hundred percent self sufficient entities. Even if  an individual might conduct his  own home school to teach his own offspring, he'd be hard pressed to  build his own roads, bridges, sewer and water lines, hospitals, airports etc.  So it is daft to believe any individual can live on his own detached from the resources of a greater collective, unless he is maybe another Ted Kaczynski. So seriously, are Ward, Ayn Rand and fellow Libbies asking us to generate 300 million Ted Kaczynskis?  Give me a break!

So moving on to inquiry (1), what then is the Libby solution for a community or even a state, if it is suddenly struck by monster storms, floods or wildfires? Well,  if I am a Puerto Rican and my power and water was knocked out after Hurricane Maria,  I suppose Ward's "solution" is that I retrieve my own telephone poles, power lines, and also machinery to excavate my own water wells.  I suppose also he expects all other Puerto Ricans  to do the same. No dependence on outside (tax-funded) government agencies like FEMA or the U.S. Army to help or lift a mitt.

What a freaking system- of idiocy!

If an H5 N1 Avian flu pandemic arrives, as many (e.g. Dr. Sanjay Gupta)  predict sometime in the future, would Mr. Ward also demand cutting all tax-support for the CDC - which tracks pandemics? Would he prefer we all just fend for ourselves, without even a flu vaccine to help?  I mean, in his deformed stunted world it would be "force" to have any upstanding citizen pay taxes to support the preparation of vaccines or the CDC in its keeping Americans apprised.

But again, this is the problem when one relies on mantras instead of reason and critical thinking, even if a "smart" Mensan.

This bids us also look again at Ayn Rand's solutions to our dilemma of what to do in case we  need police, army, fire fighters, health care or any other ostensible service of government that ordinarily woould be provided via tax dollars. But since taxation is "theft" to her and Ward, then we are to EACH purchase our own services "like insurance"".  Must I really spell out how stupid this is, and that if one is really going to individualize costs - as opposed to share them via a tax commons-  they are going to be astronomical.

Must I also spell out to the libbies that taxation is totally justified by social contract theory. On this basis we in the public sphere democratically allow people (like Warren Buffet and George Soros)  to accumulate wealth only with the understanding that a portion of that wealth would be allocated for public use.  Go ahead and establish whatever business empire you wish, but be aware that your use of our railroads, state highways, airports, etc. makes it incumbent on you to pay into the collective, the  tax commons. And no, this is assuredly not a "voluntary" matter as Rand suggests.

This brings us to one of the most apt criticisms of libertarianism:

"I don't need force to commit theft or fraud. This is a bit of rhetorical sleight of hand that libbies like to play so that they can pretend they are different from government”.

To fix ideas, Bernard Madhoff put a gun to no one's head to part with their money. He merely plied clients with fantastic visions of unearned extra wealth via his investment offerings. They weren't forced to purchase these instruments. This in itself shows the libbie's version of force as theft is poppycock.. Conversely,  taxation is not force if person X opts to live in a state or city whereby that habitation gives tacit agreement to be subject to the state's tax.  If I dislike the terms of that agreement I am at liberty to do what  one hedge fund billionaire once did and live on my own ship outside international waters.

Enter now  Prof. Ernest Partridge take on libertarianism in his 2012 article, ‘Liberals and Libertarians’:

“Now consider the implications of this denial of the "independent existence" of "the public" and "society." If there is no "public," then there are no "public goods" and there is no "public interest." If there is no "society," then there is no "social harm," or "social injustice" or "social (and public) responsibility." It then follows that government has no role in mitigating "social injustice" or promoting "the public interest," since these terms are fundamentally meaningless. Poverty and racial discrimination, for example, are individual problems requiring individual solutions”.


The same critic cited earlier puts thus:

“Libertarians make exceptions for defense of property and prosecution of fraud, and call them ‘retaliatory force’ But retaliation can be the initiation of force."

Libertarianism clearly posits initiation of force for what it identifies as its cosseted minions' interests and calls it righteous retaliation, then uses the big lie technique to define everything else as “evil initiation of force". They support the initial force that has already taken place in the formation of the system of property (e.g. the seizure of Native American lands and violation of umpteen treaties), and wish to continue to use force to perpetuate it and make it more rigid. It is this inchoate ethics that translates into the system’s weakness and exposes libertarians as true hypocrites.

Thankfully, it appears fewer in the higher Q societies have been buying into this codswallop over the last few years. Maybe it's because Ayn Rand's rubbish of "objectiviem" - disguised as philosophy - has also been exposed on a number of fronts.

See also:

http://smirkingchimp.com/thread/richard-eskow/53353/what-america-would-look-like-if-libertarians-got-their-way

"Trump Derangement Syndrome"? The Right Should Be Terrified

One of the supposed  trigger images for "Trump Derangement Syndrome".



One of the tropes circulating amongst the Trumpkins is that the Left is hysterical and over-reacting to the former's beloved, brain dead buffoon - manifesting in TDS or "Trump Derangement Syndrome".  In the fantasies of these Right wing knuckle draggers, most of the Left is either seeking therapy or crouched into fetal positions on cots in their basements, crying at every Trump news flash as they reach for their Zoloft.

The Right should be so lucky, even as we learned last night Dotard was intent on firing Special Prosecutor Robert Mueller last June, but held back when his lawyer (Don McGahn) threatened to quit.

In fact, the Left has been massively organizing by the millions  - especially the women who backed Hillary Clinton- and are now enraged a pussy grabber stole (with Russian help)  her job of destiny. Not only organizing but fielding candidates and winning in state elections.  As a recent TIME article on 'The Avengers' pointed out (Jan. 29, pp. 27-33):

"Progressive women described undergoing a metamorphosis. In 2016 they were ordinary voters . In 2017, they became activists, spurred by the bitter defeat of the first female presidential candidate at the hands of a self-described pussy grabber. Now, in 2018, these doctors and mothers and teachers are jumping into the arena and bringing new energy to a Democratic Party sorely in need of fresh faces."

Adding:

"Call it payback, call it a revolution, call it the Pink Wave inspired by marchers in their magenta pussy hats and the activism that followed. There is an unprecedented surge of first time female candidates....running for offices big and small - from the U.S. Senate to local school boards."

This ought to worry the Repukes and their groupies given "women candidates energize women voters". This, combined with potential depressed turnout on the Right,  holds the potential for a 'blue tsunami" not just a blue wave in November.

Other signs of what's to come:

- Female donors have helped raise $523 million for candidates over the past year, including for organizations like ActBlue

- Support from female voters helped lift Dem Ralph Northam to victory in the Virginia governor's race. (Northam won women by 22 points, which provided the winning margin overall)

- The Ds also picked up 15 seats in the VA House of Delegates of which 11 were won by women.

- The Resistance organization 'Indivisible' now has at least two local chapters in every congressional district and more than 6,000 groups nationwide.

In respect to the last, Professor  of Government and Sociology Theda Skocpol of Harvard "says the anti-Trump progressive uprising already has more local groups than the Tea Party did at its height."  We now also know many of the women who built this new progressive infrastructure are the same ones who spent 2016 trying to stop Trump. Yes, they failed and they were in a world of emotional hurt in the aftermath, maybe even suffering from TDS. But now, they're angry, they're motivated, they're organizing and running for office themselves to bring the Repukes down. They are not going to take it any more.

"Trump Derangement Syndrome"? If that's what it takes to propel electoral organization to topple the Trumpkins and their GOP lapdogs, bring it on.

But it doesn't stop there. There is also the potential for the entire Republican Party to go the way of the Whigs based on their irrational anti-immigration stance. That's not my take but that of Daniel Henninger, conservative columnist of The Wall Street Journal in his article ('Republicans and Dreamers') yesterday. Henninger argues that while the Reeps are "taking a victory lap" after the Dems blinked last week on the shutdown, they shouldn't count their winning chits too soon.  It may be instead that:

"The Republican Party has a last chance not to consign itself to the dustbin of history over the infernal immigration issue."

He is referring to the enormous public support for DACA and the Dreamers as disclosed in polls As he continues:

"DACA has become a household word, meaning that most people who vote have developed an informed opinion about the 800,000 or so Dreamers ...Public support for letting the Dreamers off the deportation hook sits between 70 percent and 80 percent. When polling numbers hit that level the politics of an issue is usually over.

Except - as always for Republicans- if the subject is immigration. Rarely has a political party fallen so deeply in love with a ball and chain."

A 'ball and chain' which Henninger believes will take this party down to the level of irrelevance.  Why? Look at the stats as Henninger does here and consider the consequences if the 'pukes vote down any DACA deal:

"For the purposes of the imminent  Washington battle over the Dreamers, Mr. Trump carried Florida and its 29 electoral votes by 1.2 % of the nine million votes cast. He won Texas' 38 electoral votes with only a 52.4% majority. No Republican since Bob Dole has won Texas with a smaller margin."

He goes on to elaborate how these margins are critically important given we are talking about a total of 67 electoral votes for the two states. In the case of Texas "the Hispanic population has increased in all but 11 of its 254 counties."   Republicans typically win "40 to 45 percent of the Hispanic vote". So any change in the proportions could toss the state into the blue column. Such a change could occur when  agonizing TV scenes showing the deportation of Dreamers play across the country.

The same trigger applies in Florida, with the added electoral specter being the nearly 300,000 Puerto Ricans (voting U.S. citizens) who have migrated there because Dotard allowed the island territory to sink after Hurricane Maria rather than provide timely and sufficient assistance. Even now, barely 50% of the island has its power back. This is disgusting. And the import isn't lost on Henninger, because these dissed Puerto Ricans - while they may be suffering from some TDS - will be up and ready to vote in November. As Henninger notes:

"The state estimates that nearly 300,000 U.S. citizens from Puerto Rico fled to Florida after Hurricane Maria. Some will stay, register and vote.  You cannot, like King Canute, simply order this wave back to Puerto Rico,"

No, indeed, you cannot. And further,  I somehow suspect given the scenes (still fresh in mind)  of Dotard tossing kitchen napkins to their families, there will be many more than "some" casting votes- against Trump and the pukes.

Heninger observes (ibid.):

"If Florida turns as reliably blue as California and New York, Republicans - starting with Donald Trump - may never win another presidential election. A Republican candidate would have to run the electoral table across the Midwest."

Yes, the wonders of Trump Derangement Syndrome. In this case now fueling a profound passion in alarmed citizens to take back their country from the traitors, troglodytes and proTrump turds.

If Trump Can't Help Puerto Rico Don't Look For Salvation In A "Zombie Apocalypse"

Artist's depiction of the "Zombie Apocalypse" : a generic term designed to embody all possible real apocalypses including from CMEs and extinction level asteroid strikes.

Devastation in Puerto Rico today - still 85 % without power, water after 4 weeks. How about waiting four YEARS for those essentials to arrive?

As the popular 'Walking Dead' series returns this Sunday, millions waiting with bated breath for Rick & Gang to hollow out the Saviors' skulls, the Zombie Apocalypse resumes once more.  Of course there is no actual possible apocalypse of that sort, i.e. with "walking dead" or  "biters" rampaging across the ravished terrain, though one sometimes wonders about the Trump followers. But we can acknowledge that the term kind of covers all generic end-of world scenarios in the sense of the remaining humans having to fend for themselves to survive day to day. 

In defining these I consider potential catastrophes that have the capability of halting all electric power, as well as water, not just for months - but YEARS. Given electric power can mean the difference between life and death - as we've seen in dozens of scenes from the island of Puerto Rico after Maria struck (mainly in hospitals), and water is essential for life (again as we've seen in Puerto Rico, i.e.

http://smirkingchimp.com/thread/miles-mogulescu/75740/trump-drowns-the-forgotten-men-and-women-in-swamp-water

this is a no brainer.  And not a Zombie no brainer either.  Is Puerto Rico an outlier? I don't believe so, and let's dismiss right now Dotard's giving himself a "ten" for dealing with the aftermath. No, this egomaniacal simpleton earns a '1' if that much (disallowing fractional ratings). He's completely blown it, e.g.

http://smirkingchimp.com/thread/lois-marie-gibbs/75744/hurricane-victims-don-t-have-the-complexion-for-protection

If we get struck with any of the major catastrophes in Trump's miserable term, you can basically phone it in, as in 'all over'.

The major takeaway of this year full of catastrophes - from Harvey, to Irma, to Maria and the California wildfires is that counting on your federal government to help save or rescue you is a lost cause. Not if the catastrophe is in the mega class, or if you have to live amongst a lot of brown or black people. But forget even those differences, I am convinced - after seeing the pathetic response in Puerto Rico - NO one will be rescued after a major catastrophe. 

And look, FEMA is overstretched now with the aftermath of 3 major hurricanes and major wildfires, how would they be able to handle a mega catastrophe that wipes out the nation coast to coast?  Over the past decade alone, FEMA's denials and reversals have generated uncertainty and anger in many communities, left others (like in Puerto Rico) at the mercy of water borne diseases, and led to long rounds of appeals in others.

What major catastrophes are we looking at? I list them now in the order of their likelihood:

1) Dotard goes ape shit and in a moment of manic pique punches in all the nuclear codes.

This is likely to happen if the Dotard's minders are unable to control his worst, most degenerate impulses after he loses it. After John Kelly's performance two days ago, I am convinced no one - no "adult" - exists to put a leash on this asshole and stop him from exercising his most depraved instincts..

If he punches in all the nuclear codes, a la Greg Stillson's fantasy in 'The Dead Zone',  we are looking at over 11,000 nuclear warheads landing in a matter of hours from China, N. Korea, U.S. and Russia, Israel. All electric power be out as in vamonos after the first strikes - probably within 1-2 hours - from multiple EMPs (electromagnetic pulses from air burst) across continents.  To get an idea of what this will be like for any survivors, go and watch the movie 'Threads'.

The film is about 1hr and 47 mins long, Brit-made but if it doesn't scare the bejeezus out of you, you are either already: a) brain dead, or b) a zombie and amongst the walking dead.

'Threads' is set in the industrial city of Sheffield, UK, and to be sure one needs to get adjusted to the peculiar accent. But once one does, he or she will be granted an inside look at a future none of us want to face. (One U.S. reviewer said that "Threads makes 'The Day After' look like a day at the races".) Having seen both I concur.

Threads is not for the squeamish or faint-hearted but I do think all those yammering for war or confrontation with North Korea need to see it and let its message soak in. In fact, I think every critically-thinking red blooded citizen ought to see it, if for no other reason to be motivated to let reps know this thing isn't on - not now or ever. (In a recent poll, 46 % of Republican voters indicated they wanted Trump to launch a preemptive strike on North Korea)

Max. estimated time with no power or water: Up to 10 years.


2. Meridian- centered coronal mass ejection (CME)

The coronal mass ejection, such as shown in the image below:


is the ultimate plausible nightmare catastrophe. While it is true it's unlikely to cause the loss of life such as for (1) in the worst case scenario you will be looking at months or years without electric power or water. In other words, you will be in the situation of Puerto Rico after a massive Cat 5 hurricane - except there'll be no place to go for succor or help.

We narrowly dodged such a monster five and a half years ago. But let's not fool ourselves, the day is coming when we may not be so lucky and can't expect to continue to escape with a glancing blow or solar "wrist slap" -  as we have.

While it is true - as I noted in previous posts - that flare energy (as well as that to power coronal mass ejections) is limited by the magneto-hydrodynamic potentials available on a star like the Sun, this is not really much consolation if and when a major energy burst whacks us straight on broadside with 1 million amp field-aligned induction currents that have the potential to take out all our power grids in a cascade of failures. Space weather aficionados call such maxi-catastrophes "Carrington Events" after the signature original event that transpired in September, 1859, which incepted geo-magnetic currents so large that for days telegraph operators could actually disconnect their equipment from battery power and send messages solely via the emergent "auroral currents".

In our own current situation, we've become a more vulnerable society by constructing mammoth, interlocked  power grids which can crash if the right combination of factors is imposed. While we do have high voltage transformers that connect directly to the ground (zero or earth potential) to neutralize power surges from lightning strikes, these don't afford any protection against powerful geo-magnetic currents that are induced in the earth and flow upward into the grid. Then ...one such mammoth event, could spark calamity. Possibly no electric power for days, maybe longer ...over vast swatches of North America.

In addition, if a monster flare hurls a super stream of charged particles along with the CME we could expect adverse effects on all GPS positioning satellites. Bear in mind that GPS, besides providing directions for road users, allows synchronized cell phone conversations, as well as orchestrates air traffic not to mention 'date stamping' on most financial transactions and guiding the dynamic positioning of the majority of deep sea oil drilling and gas operations.

Imagine then the same deep sea operations and financial transactions (say if you wish to redeem mutual fund shares) occurring when erroneous GPS info is received because a monster flare's radiation has knocked the timing off by even 1 millionth of a second (given the geo-spatial positioning measures accuracy to a few billionths of a second accuracy)? The resulting hundred fold or more time divergence would have catastrophic consequences.

Given the preceding a proactive solution would be advance protection of our power grids from upward directed geo-magnetic currents. Many experts agree a simple solution would be to install large enough resistor -capacitor systems at critical locations (e.g. near power plants or major cities)  in order to sever any CME-driven upward field aligned current connection to the grid. (Recall from my basic physics blog, e;g. http://brane-space.blogspot.com/2011/06/introduction-to-basic-physics-electric.html     that resistors act to limit current and also capacitors can do the same by collecting charge.)

The problem? Major U.S. power companies don't want to assume the cost for any voluntary installations, which could run $100,000 per transformer. Hence, the grid remains unprotected against the rare - but potentially calamitous - Carrington event CME that smacks us broadside. (As opposed to the glancing blow.)

Even a bit of help could be available if we knew the direction of an oncoming powerful CME event and had some time to prepare. Right now such an entity exists: the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) satellite which can measure the intensity and magnetic orientation of any CME that sweeps by it. The problem is that ACE is nearly on its last legs and a replacement monitor is needed, lest we become "blind" to the killer CME with our name on it.

Fortuitously, a fully -ready space craft that can undertake ACE's duties exists.  This Deep Space Climate Observatory (or DSCOVR) could stand between us and utter catastrophe. The problem? The Repukes may want to cut its budget to let it become another useless piece of junk   like the solar satellite shot down as part of a missile test back in the Reagan era.

Max. estimated time with no power or water: Up to 2 years.

3. Asteroid strike:

Of course, the ultimate catastrophe would be  a Torino scale 9 impact, i.e. an "Earth sterilizing event".  Such a calamity would most likely come from an Apollo object, especially a massive Earth orbit crossing object - perturbed out of the asteroid belt.   For example, a  Gaspra (12.5 x 7 x 7.5 miles)  e.g.

impact would obliterate all life on Earth - never to arise again. The crater and blast effects alone would eliminate most of the population on the continent it struck. An ocean strike, creating tidal waves upwards of 2 miles in height, would be even worse. The debris, for its part, would block out most solar radiation for years and probably usher in massive extinction of plants.

The size of object needed is >> 1 km, and an Explosive release: >> 100,000 megatons TNT equivalent.

This is an extreme case and fortunately the odds are in our favor  However, a mass extinction event which could render the entire North American continent rubble is a lot more probable.  The relevant Torino scale would require an object 330' diameter to 1 km (3330') dia. Also an explosive release of  100 Megatons to 100,000 megatons TNT equivalent.

Max. estimated time with no power or water: Up to 10 years.

Let's make this really simple and easy to grasp: the failure to provide power and water access to Puerto Ricans by now - even after 4 weeks after Maria's strike - means there is zero chance the government will help you get through in the case of any of the preceding cataclysms.  And when I write 'you" I refer to anyone in North America and the U.S. in particular.

Yes, Puerto Rico's Debt Needs To Be Forgiven

Scene of desolation in Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria.

In the wake of Hurricane Maria's devastation of Puerto Rico the issue of bringing the island territory of the U.S. back to economic viability has come to the fore.  Let's recall one of the issues even before the monster storm (barely 2 mph less than category 5) was Puerto Rico's  debt.  But in the wake of  Maria, which could cost the island up to $95 billion, more than double its current debt, there are few good options available. The most likely of which is that, under the existing law, all debt holders, including PREPA (electric utility) bondholders, will be those left largely footing the bill.

Even econ maven Steve Rattner, who initially inveighed against debt forgiveness,  stated flatly in a CNN interview a week ago that investors will have no choice but to "take a haircut".  There is simply no way it can ever be in a position to repay the debt especially after the hurricane's ravages. Rattner of Willett Advisors, originally told Bloomberg TV  that Congressional action might be needed to wipe out the debt.

But this isn't true. (A realization that may have subsequently caused Rattner to change his tune)

Under the PROMESSA act, according to UN sovereign debt consultant Eric LeCompte, the potential for Puerto Rico's debt to be significantly forgiven is a real possibility that will not take an act of Congress. Under the law, the bankruptcy judicial authority has significant latitude to consider the U.S. territory’s ability to pay the debt. The territory also has $50 billion in unfunded pension liabilities.

LeCompte pointed out that the super bankruptcy process includes a key provision that pins debt payments to the economic ability of a sovereign region to pay. The provisions of the PROMESA act are more sweeping in this regard than credit leniency afforded to states or other sovereign governments, he said.  Adding - in one online interview with an investor site (ValueWalk):  "When PROMESA legislation was written, it was very specific to Puerto Rico.  It would be very difficult for other territories to have the same latitude under the law.”

LeCompte also noted that money earmarked to pay bondholders is currently being diverted to hurricane relief.  This in itself makes it incomprehensible why Congress would recently pass - as part of general emergency relief-  a $4.9 b  package for the island territory but via a LOAN with interest attached. WTF?!  With bondholder debt diverted to hurricane relief why on Earth would you add more debt as a component of relief?  It's idiotic, but also passing sadistic.

Basically, what the Repukes in Congress have done is to essentially charge Puerto Rico "a leasing fee for the life raft as they drown", in the words of one commentator. How about, instead of treating the people of Puerto Rico like second class citizens, we treat them like the  hurricane victims of Houston? Give them hurricane relief with NO strings, i.e. no interest-bearing loans attached. This so they can get a head start on rebuilding and get on with their lives.

But the zeitgeist appears to be one of calculated cruelty combined with economic stupidity, such as exemplified in a recent WSJ piece ('Forgiving Debt Would Hurt Puerto Rico') by John Tamny. According to Tamny,  Puerto Rico's debt troubles "were the direct result of policies that hurt growth so forgiving its debt would only free Puerto Rico's politicians from having to address the policies that were suffocating its policies to begin with".

What is Tamny's solution? It is "to allow the government to feel the pain of its debt"  then this would "leave politicians no choice but to adopt pro growth policies".  And what pray tell does this mean? Well "a reduction in income taxes for the highest earners".  So, in the analogy of a foot race, Tamny would have the island cut its legs another foot shorter. 

He clearly is still hostage to the supply side nonsense, which almost brought Barbados to ruin in 1991 thanks to its adoption of Reagan's bunkum in 1986.

The fact is that any drop in revenue from whatever source will not help Puerto Rico, given any island state is already behind the financial 'eight ball' by virtue of its geographical situation - being an ISLAND.  Islands (such as Barbados and Puerto Rico) have to have all resources come in from outside - ship or plane - which naturally increases the cost of living. No surprise then that Puerto Rico's cost of living is some 13 percent higher than any location in the U.S.  Barbados cost of living is even higher than Puerto Rico's - as we relearn each time we visit and go the grocery mart.

Puerto Ricans also can’t claim the Earned Income Tax Credit or Child Tax Credit, which serves to both cushion the blow of living in poverty while enticing people into paid work. Those would be useful in a place where the labor force has fallen by about 20 percent over the last decade.

The territory’s economic struggles -  like those of Barbados -  led it to borrow heavily by issuing bonds in an attempt to keep its budget balanced. But it hasn’t been able to climb out of the hole, and in 2015 its governor announced that it couldn’t keep paying its creditors. Because Puerto Rico isn’t a state, it has been denied the ability to go through municipal bankruptcy. Congress instead set up a Financial Oversight Management Board to come up with a plan. So far, the plan calls for austerity measures that include $25.7 billion in spending cuts. The plan even acknowledges that his will lead to another “lost decade” of economic growth for the island (which could easily end up being worse than their projections).

However, economists Joseph Stiglitz and Martin Guzman have pointed out that if the territory’s economy can’t recover, it will continue to have trouble paying anything to creditors, not to mention prolonging the suffering of its residents. Conversely, if the economy is allowed to regain its health, it will have more revenues that it can use to pay people back.

Another option would be to push for the hedge funds and other firms that own Puerto Rico’s debt to write off large portions of it. Under Congress’s plan, the island can unilaterally reduce its debt with the approval of a federal judge. Doing so could have other ramifications—such as increasing borrowing costs—but it’s also worth remembering that investments are inherently risky. Rattner following his change of heart pointed this out. So the same way a stock investor needs to expect the inevitable losses, so also bond investors need to expect the inevitable "hair cuts" if they happen to invest in places, or products, utilities that go under - for whatever reason.

Let's also bear in mind that allowing Puerto Ricans to  continue to suffer will do no one any good and  - if anything - drive hundreds of thousands to abandon the island to come to the mainland U.S. And, as U.S. citizens, there isn't a god damned thing Trump or his Reich wing cronies can do to stop such a mass migration. Don't like it? Then forgive the damned debt, and offer no strings attached money for relief - to rebuild!

See also:

http://smirkingchimp.com/thread/lois-marie-gibbs/75744/hurricane-victims-don-t-have-the-complexion-for-protection


And:

http://smirkingchimp.com/thread/miles-mogulescu/75740/trump-drowns-the-forgotten-men-and-women-in-swamp-water