Kiribati - Another 'Nail' In The B.S. Coffin Of Anthropogenic Climate Change Deniers

Kiribati boy tries to negotiate passage in deep waters which will soon inundate his island

A recent visit to Barbados (in April ) reminded us again  of the extent to which the island is at risk of losing its precious beaches, especially on the east and southeast coast.. With each passing year more coastal land is reclaimed due to the inexorably rising sea and now- unlike thirty years ago - you won't find one single climate change skeptic.

The degree of ocean reclamation of beach near the Atlantis Hotel had our heads spinning, as we were informed by the proprietor it had become much worse since our last buffet lunch there in 2010. He since had to move the pavilion and restaurant tables some twenty five feet further away from the beach which also reduced the total size of the area so more diners (who wished to dine outside) had to be  packed together.

Janice's older brother, a mechanical engineer, expressed the opinion of all of us in the party: "I just don't see how any of these climate change deniers have any credibility any more. It seems to me they all ought to be hooted out on a rail. "

Indeed. But Barbados isn't the only place enduring loss of beachfront land and even future inundation from rising seas. Look also at the island off Kiribati  - a collection of 23 coral islands and reef atolls in the South Pacific.  See e.g.  http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/09/22/kiribati-president-buying-land_n_5860064.html

In a recent Sunday New York Times article (p. A11) we learned how the future has now crashed into Kiribati and big time. Fortunately for them, no climate deniers like Kort Patterson were around to suffer like the islanders are. But as the piece informs us, for years climate scientists (real ones) has been predicting that much of the island of Kiribati proper would become uninhabitable - and within decades. This was directly because of an onslaught of problems linked directly to  climate change. 

But the islanders, much like the current climate deniers, paid little heed. They took all the advance warning with so many grains of salt and probably even believed they were coming from "alarmists", or rich white guys who merely wanted to drive them from their tropical island paradise. Now it appears a "tidal surge" last winter delivered a wake up call. Also known as a "king tide" the event shocked islanders much like the recent deluges in West Virginia, Texas and other U.S. locales have shocked residents there.  The Times quotes one pastor (of the Kiribati Uniting Church) who exclaimed "It shocked us. We realized, okay, maybe climate change is real."

To set the context, while the Pacific island nations are scattered and small, with tiny populations, they are sort of the 'canary in the coal mine' in terms of rising seas from climate change.  Indeed, these nations - in many ways like Barbados and other Caribbean island nations - are among the world's most vulnerable to the vicissitudes of climate change, especially in the economic and physical sphere. In Barbados, this has led to a general program to educate average citizens about the risks from climate change. Already, these risks have been visible in the recurring invasions of red algae and a certain species of knotty seaweed on southeast coastal beaches, such as Crane beach. The economic downside is obvious in driving tourists away.

It is a travesty of sorts that while world powers like the U.S. conduct summit meetings to negotiate carbon reduction, even if they aren't entirely successful like the Paris climate summit last December, nothing similar is being done for the micro nations like Barbados or Kiribati, the places where the most extreme climate consequences will strike first. 


This is extremely dismaying, and as we beheld in Bim, has the political establishment anxious given how the island is already suffering from credit downgrades.  Where does a tiny island state with a GDP roughly the same as Alex Gonzalez payroll on the NY Yankees go to get badly needed funds to reclaim beaches lost to the rising seas? To the IMF at 25%  interest? It simply isn't in the cards, not when there are so many other issues in play including how to ensure the island's water quality and protect it from possible sea water incursion.  

Meanwhile, in Kiribati, as in Barbados, climate scientists warn that rising seas are also likely to worsen erosion, trigger groundwater shortages and increase the intrusion of salt water into freshwater supplies.  Then there are the impacts from natural invasions that are accompaniments of climate change. In Barbados there are two: 1) ever more Sahara dust  clouding the skies and causing respiratory distress in residents - the dust arriving in greater concentrations due to droughts in Africa, and 2) the arrival of tropical pests including giant African land snails that consume vegetation as well as the Zika virus and dengue fever.  Again, as Janice's brother Anthony put it "Only an idiot or uneducated twit would believe climate change isn't real, or isn't human-engendered." 

What to do? Barbados top Minister for the Environment is already drawing up plans if the worse comes to the worst, including evacuations of affected citizens to other  (higher altitude) parts of the island. In the case of Kiribati we learn (ibid.)  it has actually been "drawing up plans for its demise".  In doing so, the government has "been promoting migration with dignity" and has been urging residents to acquire employable skills before they move abroad.  Already, the government has "bought up nearly 6,000 acres of land in Fiji" - an island nation more than one thousand miles distant. This is as a potential refuge given Fiji is at a higher elevation and has a more stable shoreline.

Yes, some people in the world, not so blessed as to inhabit rarefied ivory  towers of unaffected areas, don't have the luxury to pen codswallop about "climate alarmists". The threat to their very way of life is real and very personal, involving how they can live and where they can actually survive.   But one thing is true: eventually everyone on the planet will be affected, even the most hidebound, stubborn deniers - who might well be yelping "There is no climate change it's just a big conspiracy!"  even as they are carried away by rising seas.

Life Changes At The Cusp Of The Runaway Greenhouse

Let us recognize that life at the cusp of the runaway greenhouse will not be "sweet bread" to use Bajan parlance. For those alive in 2035 and going forward, they will need every bit of resourcefulness and mettle to cope with the tidal wave of changes to descend on them. In this post I want to examine some of them with the underlying subtext: Are  we remotely ready to deal with them?

As shown in the accompanying graphic, some of the most profound changes will occur in sea level states such as Florida as projected sea level rise affects over 3 million in that state alone, as well as more than 560 million worldwide. Already Miami experiences severe flooding with heavy rains and pumps are often needed to eliminate the water. But this is batting on a 'losing wicket' that will only postpone the inevitable.

Island states like Barbados and Kiribati are particularly affected. A recent visit to Barbados (last May) reminded us of the extent to which the island is at risk of losing its precious beaches. With each passing year more coastal land is reclaimed due to the inexorably rising sea and now- unlike thirty years ago - you won't find one single climate change skeptic. As for Kiribati, see e.g.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/09/22/kiribati-president-buying-land_n_5860064.html

Unaddressed are also the following effects which will creep into the lives of those living near the first "year of no seasons" - the first signal of the imminent runaway:

- Hotter and hotter night time temperatures

Up until relatively recently, the bane of heat waves has been broken by the fact they usually don't last overly long, e.g. a week or ten days, and when they are finished night time temperatures get significantly cooler than day time  -providing needed relief. By the cusp of the runaway all that will change. Not only will heat waves be prolonged (lasting 2-3 months or longer) but will be severe, with highs in the 100-110F range. These conditions will be life - threatening for millions especially as the night time temperatures will scarcely be much lower.

Already, night time minimums have been rising more rapidly than daytime highs, even as the length of summer (and spring) stretches beyond their astronomical definitions.  The natural response in developed nations will be to amp up the a/c but this will clearly lead to more blackouts as power grids are strained beyond their capacity.

Extended heat waves, encroaching into what was spring and "winter" will also force school systems to install more air conditioning, at great expense. Will public school systems already scratching for money be able to afford it? They had better, or else they will have to cut the school year dramatically. (Or let kids mostly self-educate on their home computers, assuming electricity is available.)

- Water limits will see mass rationing for most communities

By which I mean water access, if at available at all, will be limited to specific intervals of the day. A major reason is that our water infrastructure was created for a 20th century climate. Indeed, many water systems originated in the 19th century especially in major cities like New York, Chicago. These systems will not be able to withstand the withering heat from prolonged heat waves and so an already dire water situation will become manifestly worse. In western states, water may not be available at all, as it's being delimited by prolonged drought but also by the fracking craze.  Some estimates indicate Colorado, for example, may run out of potable fresh water by the middle of the next decade if the fracking insanity isn't halted.

All this implies that if there is water, it will become immensely costly. We are talking of rates as high as $300 a month or more just for recycled toilet water. How will people, especially the poorest, be able to afford that if they can barely afford food now? It is clear any government at the time may have to provide water stamps as well as food stamps.

True, the planned expansion of the Gross Reservoir near Denver  makes sense. But even that will only provide a limited solution as the state's population continues to grow, and the frackers show no signs of relenting in their yearly plunder of hundreds of millions of gallons for frack wells.

- Fire potential will soar nationwide, worldwide:

While raging fires in the West have become commonplace, e.g.


They will also be common throughout the nation at the cusp of the runaway greenhouse. The reasons for the coming "fire age" were clearly explained in a  Washington Post   article three years ago:

"Warmer weather, earlier snowmelt, drought and beetle infestations facilitated by warmer climates are all contributing to the rising number of fires linked to climate change. Across large swaths of the United States and Canada, bark beetles have killed many mature trees, making forests more flammable. And tropical rain forests that were not susceptible to forest fires in the past are likely to become drier as temperatures rise, growing more vulnerable."

This means that every state will need to have provisions ready for massive fire -fighting, and that means budgets to support it as much (in fact more) than they now support snow removal. (By the first estimated 'year of no seasons', 2040 (according to David Suzuki) there will, of course, be no more snow so all budgets will have to redirect to fire fighting.


- Heat Compromise of General Infrastructure :

While the effect on water delivery systems will be bad enough, the immense heat projected by 2035-37 will also wreak havoc on roads, bridges and even airports. Current road materials exhibit a limited range of heat tolerance and road buckling occurs with sustained temperatures above 90F - exactly the conditions that will emerge at the cusp of the runaway greenhouse.

Bridges are especially vulnerable to high temperatures, which stress bridge integrity. Already, thanks to lack of maintenance, nearly 70 percent of U.S. bridges are compromised in some way and it is these bridges most likely to be affected first as the temperatures ramp up. Like it or not, taxes may  have to be increased exponentially to pay for all this. (The American Society of Civil Engineers estimates a cost of $1.6 trillion just to achieve a moderate state of maintenance. Redesign for the "heat era" may require 2 or 3 times that.)

Airports will also be affected. DIA or Denver International Airport has the world's longest runway, but may need to extend it even further. The much higher temperatures at the cusp will make it much harder to attain lift (from the Bernoulli effect).  Thus, much warmer air will be less dense (when a gas is heated it expands so its density or mass/ volume decreases), reducing the mass of air flowing over the air foils (wings) to create lift. This will necessitate more runway length for takeoff. Already, in Colorado, the runways serving Aspen and Vail have been lengthened by 1,000 ft. to accommodate such changes during the summer months. We can expect similar modifications to be made nation wide as we approach the cusp of the runaway.

- Spread of Tropical Diseases:

We already know that West Nile Fever and Dengue fever will spread to most of the nation by the first year of no seasons, but other viral and parasitic infections will also abound. Two of these are illustrated below:












Thus, worm infestations, especially of the brain (above left) will proliferate as well as elephantiasis,  from  filariasis which will occur throughout the U.S. by 2040. Right now, there are in excess of 9 BILLION worm parasites inhabiting the vertebrates of our world, according to the author of Parasite REX. The human population alone may carry within it up to 2 billion worm parasites, including: hook worm, one of 5,000 forms of tape worm, round worm, trypanosomes, schistosomiasis-causing flukes and the protozoan that causes Toxoplasma (which over 1 billion may carry, mostly in their brains.).

With the stimulative effects of runaway cusp warming these numbers can expect to double or triple, especially amongst the human denizens of the planet. For an excellent insight into what we're in for and how bad it will be consult the paper: Global Climate and Infectious Disease:The Cholera Paradigm, in Science, Vol. 274, 20 December, 1996, p. 2025.

Do you really want to live to 100?

See also:

http://www.smirkingchimp.com/thread/william-rivers-pitt/61297/how-to-die-of-dumb

Chikungunya Fever Strikes Eastern Caribbean - Is Barbados Ready?

The news in the Sunday New York Times was disturbing to say the least. Evidently, a mosquito-borne disease once peculiar to equatorial Africa has now invaded the Eastern Caribbean. This needs to be addressed with emergency given how fragile all the island nations economies are. They certainly can't afford to lose any segment of their tourist earnings, for example.

Already, according to the Times ('Virus Advances Through East Caribbean'), the French side of St. Martin has been affected, as the virus has also spread to seven other locations, including: British Virgin Islands, Dominica, French Guiana, Guadeloupe and St. Bartholemy. Barbados hasn't been affected yet, but given its bond downgrade predicament, its Ministry of Health needs to keep keen vigilance.  All the island's health resources need to be ready in case this virus hits.

Already, 3,700 are confirmed to have contracted Chikungunya in the region, and "experts say conditions are ripe for the virus to spread to Central and South America."  The French side of St. Marten has 476 cases confirmed currently - the largest cluster of all the islands - while the Dutch side has 40 cases, according to the Caribbean Health Agency.

Experts  say it is "unlikely to affect the United States" - but again, 20 years ago "experts" said the same about West Nile Fever- and now it's everywhere.  The problem is that as global warming becomes more pronounced - especially if the Keystone XL pipeline is approved (adding some of the most concentrated carbon stores to the atmosphere) then it is inevitable more tropical diseases will spread to the U.S. including dengue fever, and possibly schistosomiasis.

Chikungunya (pronounced: chik-en-GUN-ya) was first identified in Tanzania in 1952. The name translates to "that which bends up" in the Kimakonde language peculiar to Mozambique.  According to the World Health Organization, some 2 million cases have been confirmed reported in India, Myanmar and Thailand. The Aedes aegypti mosquito carries the disease.

The symptoms include extreme muscle pain and fever with symptoms similar to those of dengue fever. For those who don't know, dengue is also known as "bone break" fever because the chronic pain is so bad it feels as if your bones have been broken and you can barely move them. The difference is that pain from Chikungunya, mainly in small joints, tends to last for months. The pain is so bad, especially in the wrists and ankles, that it is incapacitating. Workers, for example, are unable to even work a keyboard, far less punch in text messages on Twitter.

According to Ann N. Powers a specialist on vector-borne disease:

"They miss school and work. It's quite a drain on resources and the work force."

Exactly the last thing that Barbados, or any other island state needs!

 Dr. C. James Hospedales, executive director of the Caribbean Health Agency based in Trinidad, has observed:

"It is an important development when a disease moves from one continent to another. Is it likely here to stay? That's the pattern we observe everywhere."

Let's hope that this disease doesn't lay waste to the people and resources of the region. And if it does enter Barbados, let's hope the authorities act with urgency.

2014: The Year Global Warming Deniers Will Wish They Were Right!

Two and a half years ago, in a blog post entitled 'If You Think It's Hot Now Just Wait a Few Years', I referenced climatologist S. George Philander who - 13 years earlier-  wrote a hot-button piece in Eos: Transactions of the American Geophysical Union (March 31, 1998) entitled:‘Who is El Nino?’

Philander argued that El Nino and its sister cycle 'La Nina' are not merely the yings and yangs of a meteorological cycle but  offshoots of climate change in terms of their expected future behavior. Thus, as more CO2 is pumped into the atmosphere (as indicated by the Keeling curve - which shows CO2 injection has exceeded the absorption capacity of the oceans), El Nino will ramp up leading to blistering hot and dry conditions, even as La Nina brings cooler spells and precip in alternate periods. However, unmentioned is the game changer of altered albedo.

Each El Nino cycle that over-warms, has pernicious and permanent effects on the Arctic, leading to ever more polar ice melting and large glaciers retreating, including much of the land mass of Greenland. The situation worsens as rising temperatures (from higher CO2 levels) lead to earlier and earlier melting, Prolonged Arctic melting- the mechanism of which is shown below:

exposes ever more surface area- thereby reducing the albedo or reflectivity of the surface - leading to increased absorption of solar radiation. Meanwhile, bare ice is much less reflective than snow, absorbing even more solar radiation and further speeding any melting. (In the diagram, the red arrows indicate incoming radiation and the blue arrows indicate radiation reflected back into space. Percentages give the amounts of reflected incoming solar radiation).
As anyone can see (even without a physics background)the above process over time results in ever diminished reflection of solar radiation back into space, a darker Earth surface - with more IR (infrared radiation)absorbed - which reinforces more melting, which in turn leads to more absorbed solar radiation and ever more melting - in a positive feedback loop that will become ever more consolidated.

Now, we learn that El Nino is about to ramp up again this year. This is bad news given that even in the absence of El Nino, 2013 was one of the hottest years on record. Readers may find this incredible given the bone chilling cold recently, but last month was the warmest December in 30 years. Now, with El Nino's next onset the stage is set for heat records to be broken like never before. In some quarters there are projections that this may be the hottest year ever recorded (TIME, 'El Nino Is On Its Way', Jan. 13, p.41)

As Philander and others have noted (op. cit.) El Nino conditions are incepted when the surface waters of the Southern Pacific become abnormally warm. This is critical given the Pacific covers some 30 percent of the planet's area.  With the solar insolation at some 1360 watts/m^2  this means the added energy will force an array of radical weather changes globally.  It can also trigger extremes of weather conditions such as we've seen the past few El Nino cycles, i.e. extreme rainfall in parts of the Western Hemisphere along with prolonged dry conditions in Asia.

Other dynamical changes triggered by El Nino can affect quality of life, even food availability. For example, because El Nino can reduce the upwelling of cold, nutrient rich sea water (i.e. that supports large fish populations in the Pacific) and destroy coral reefs - marine life can be decimated. Already there are shortages of certain fish, e.g. blue fin tuna, and these are going to get much worse over this year as El Nino unfolds.

Apart from that, there is the spread of more tropical diseases, including dengue fever, schistosomiasis, malaria, and West Nile fever - and likely others. (I look for an emergence of Rift Valley Fever in the U.S. along with dengue.)  It is estimated the strong 1997-98 El Nino cost the U.S. some $25b in health care costs and hours lost on the job. This marked the year when West Nile really began to spread, and it also marked the increased incidence of worm infestation of human brains, especially around the world, e.g.
 

The three warmest years on record were all El Nino Years: 1998, 2005 and 2010. This year will likely beat those if the Southern Pacific heats up enough (about 0.9F) in which case climate scientists can declare an 'El Nino Effect'.  In this case, 2014 will likely break all prior heat records with extended heat waves with high temperatures rising above 105-110F and never dipping below 80-85F at night.

Bear in mind also, the unusual warmth of last year (despite no El Nino) comports with the controversial 2008 Nature paper of  Noel Keenlyside et al, which looked at past and (forecast) future global average temperatures, with the particular graphic for reference labeled:

 "Hindcast/forecast decadal variations in global mean temperature, as compared with observations and standard climate model projections".

The termination of the running ten-year mean labeled as "flat warming" thus would have ended last year. Recall that a source of confusion in the paper leading deniers to circulate the myth that "warming had ceased from 1998"  is that each point on the graph represented a ten-year centered mean. That is, each point represented the average temperature of the decade starting 5 years before that point and ending 5 years after that point. Thus, the statistics for potential “cooling” could not possibly have been justifiably extrapolated beyond 1998 + 5 = 2003.

One key marker was the red line in the Nature publication, highlighting actual global temperature data from the U.K.'s Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and Research.  Another  marker was the black line in the same Figure, which was actually one of the IPCC scenario projections, labeled 'A1B.' It denoted a relatively high-CO2-growth model -- but actual carbon emissions since 2000 have wildly outpaced it. A further check by skeptics of the  additional solid green line - the "hindcast" of the authors – e.g. how well their model compared to actual data (and the A1B scenario) could also be done. It would have  been seen that, if extended (in dashes) through 2010 and finally to 2025, it JOINED up with A1B. In other words, a general trend of much higher warning.

The period 2013-14 marks the termination of the Keenlyside et al flat line trend and a general increase to higher and higher global surface temperatures on past 2025. This also comports with the most recent findings that much hotter climate change regimes are in store for us. According to a new study published in Nature, climate-change will “lock” into place by the year 2047 (plus or minus 14 years, when the uncertainty is factored in). Once that happens, every year after 2047 will be hotter than even the current hottest year on record.

By 2047, the study concludes, our current record temperatures will become the new normal temperatures.   Of course, since the planet has differing temperature regions, latitudes etc. the emergence of the new heat world will not be uniform.  The Nature study estimates that Singapore, for example, will reach its temperature point-of-no-return as soon as 2028. Cairo, they say, could start to see a “lock-in” of global warming in 2036, 11 years before the global X-year 2047.


According to Chris Field, one of the scientists who worked on the project, "One can think of this year [2047] as a kind of threshold into a hot new world from which one never goes back.”


People -adults living now, still alive in 2047, will remember 2014 as the year leading up to the new heat regime on Earth.  Instead of overly complaining about the cold, snow etc. Earthlings would do well to enjoy the next several weeks while they can. It may be the last "cool relief"  they see for some time! Spring with massive tornado outbreaks, heat and wildfires will be here soon enough. If the warming deniers are still babbling when this year concludes, well......all I can say is they are disconnected from the rest of the planet.  Disconnected to the extent of being certifiable for special insane asylum domiciling.

See also:

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/17/science/earth/un-says-lag-in-confronting-climate-woes-will-be-costly.html?hp&_r=0

Enjoying the End of a Mild Winter? Get Set for Summer HELL!

As I had predicted at the end of 2011:

http://brane-space.blogspot.com/2011/12/one-sure-prediction-even-more-climate.html

There will be even more climatic catastrophes in 2012, and we've already seen this partially fulfilled in the sheer number of devastating tornadoes spawned since January. Meanwhile, though many people (especially the irritating weather folk) praise the "beautiful" weather, and temperatures 25-35 degrees higher than normal - most thinking people understand this is as welcome or normal as a two-headed baby. Do you see people awwwwing and oooohhing over those? Hardly! Because they're understood to be an abnormality, disjoint from the natural or biological order.

At least it's good to see some of the meteorologists, like Sam Champion on ABC- highlighting the downsides including: much earlier and more intense pollen distribution (a charming welcome for allergy sufferers) and an increase in the insect population, especially ants, ticks and mosquitoes. This also means new waves of mosquito borne illness will likely follow including from West Nile virus and likely (now) dengue fever.

The latter is especially bad, since one becomes so susceptible after the 2nd bout of the disease that the 3rd time is usually not a charm but death. They call it "dengue hemorraghic fever" in the West Indies, because you bleed profusely from every orifice. In the W. Indies the fatality rate is usually 65% or more. The announcement of some 19 cases of dengue in Jacksonville, FL last year was therefore worrisome news, since at that far north it means an inevitable spread - likely to the Gulf states and maybe even all the way to Texas.

Apart from this, Vermont has seen much of its maple syrup crop degraded on account of the sap rising prematurely from the early high temperatures. One of the main consequences, according to long time tappers, is that the sugar content is down by 70%. Not much point in bringing this batch to market because consumers expect maple syrup to be sweet. Meanwhile, other food crops are at risk from a too early ripening.

Strangely, many who relish and embrace the freakishly warm weather in winter are failing to process that if it's 85 in St. Louis or Cedar Falls, or Minneapolis now, it will have to be like bloody hell in late spring or the summer. You're not going to typically enjoy 80s now and then 80s going into May, June, July and August.

A plausible model for the summer - starting from about Memorial Day all the way through Labor Day weekend - is depicted in the map graphic shown. The temperature distributions indicated are highs for those geographical areas that I worked out based on the 2008 Nature paper written by Dr. Noel Keenlyside et al, and specfically their future projections graph, labelled 'A1B'. Recall this was the same paper that skeptics tried to use to claim that warming has "stopped since 1998" - but as I showed in numerous prior blogs, they misinterpreted the statistics. (I.e. each point in the primary 'Hindsight/foresight decadal variations figure represents a ten-year centered mean. That is, each point represents the average temperature of the decade starting 5 years before that point and ending 5 years after that point. Thus, the statistics for potential “cooling” could not possibly have been justifiably extrapolated beyond 1998 + 5 = 2003.)

Making a long story short, the future projections graph A1B disclosed rampant heating beyond 2010, with the Hadley Center UK prognostication line linking up with those from the IPCC and Keenlyside et al. And that's exactly what we've seen - with 2010 the hottest year on record since records were kept, and last year featuring more than 3,800 heat records broken in hundreds of cities and towns across the U.S., with more than 750 records for night time high temperatures broken in Texas and Oklahoma alone.

So, to compile my map distributions I used a program I devised for my Mathcad 14 software, and input data from the past two years to project what can be expected (guided by the A1B graph projections of Keenlyside et al). Even so, it's likely the map shown doesn't tell the whole dreadful story. For one thing, it doesn't indicate how long those blistering temperatures will endure in the regions indicated. But my best guess is that they will last longer than they did last year- when both Texas and Oklahoma endured not weeks, but months of temperatures over 90 degrees, with night time temperatures barely edging into the low 80s. This time around the northeast and east as well as midwest will feel the punch too, and I am predicting a lengthy heat wave for Chicago that may well rival the one some years ago.

This, of course, is all the obverse side to the "wonderful weather" you hear people bragging on now. They fail to understand that this "wonderful" weather comes at a horrific cost. And what you saved in heating bills you're essentially going to give back (with interest) in air conditioning costs. And believe me, you will need it - and that's assuming our twitchy power grids don't come down from the increased demand.

The paradox of global warming, and especially the runaway greenhouse scenario when considered in conjunction with Peak Oil, is that just as temperatures will be ramping up to frightfully high levels - requiring enormous use of a/c- the energy costs will be soaring because of dwindling supply. This means that inevitably multiplied social and environmental costs will emerge. Most likely these will come from trying to stretch the grid beyond capacity, or feverishly accelerating oil shale and natural gas extraction via fracking.

Just bear in mind that the balmy winter you're cooing over now, with temperatures near 80, will likely convert to an insiduous hell of endless days topping 115F or higher (with humidity factored in) - this summer. Don't say you weren't warned!