It's been known for at least 38 years, that South Florida will be 'ground zero' when the rising seas from climate change begin to have their most serious impact. Indeed, the image of projected sea reclamation by 2035 for Florida - in a U.S. Geological survey map - was actually published first in a (World Book) Science Encyclopedia article from 1981.
Meanwhile, sea rise prognostications had forecast a 20- 25 ft. increase by 2070 owing to the melting of Greenland' enormous ice sheet. But frankly, that's all gone by the backboards as we now have direct evidence the melting of the Greenland ice sheet has accelerated and dramatically.
How much are we talking about? According to the latest reports (cf. The Denver Post, Aug. 25, p. 1A, 'Greater Mass Loss Going Forward'):
"By the end of the summer about 440 million tons of ice wil have melted or calved off Greenland's giant ice sheet. "
Adding:
"In the span of July 31 to August 3, more than 58 billion tons melted from the surface. This is more than 40 billion tons more than the average for this time of year."
Which elicits the question of what transpires if this rate of melt is sustained or even accelerates? It seems clear that in such a case the forecast that "Greenland alone would cause 3-4 feet of sea level rise" must be advanced, possibly to 2040 or even earlier. Indeed, Greenland accelerated melting is now evident given (ibid.):
"A NASA satellite found that Greenland's ice sheet lost about 255 billion metric tons of ice a year between 2003 and 2016, with the loss rate generally getting worse over that period."
Add that to the melting of the Arctic ice caps and Antarctic ice shelf as well and one can imagine a scenario for a 20-25 ' sea level rise by mid century. We also now have to factor in the effects of the burning Amazon rain - forest - likely to add 2- 5 gigatons of carbon to the already CO2 sodden atmosphere. This is no longer in the realm of science fiction such as portrayed in flicks like 'Waterworld'.
Just look at the projected map of sea reclamation projected by the U.S. Geological survey for Florida by 2035. Now imagine a sea level rise instead of 3 m and five times the number of Florida residents affected. Yes, it is quite within the realm of plausibility now. Hell, we've even seen how Miami itself is now subject to flooding. The map below of the Miami area shows effect of elevation on rate of property price appreciation:
Where the more contrast colored purple section refers to greater effect on rate of appreciation. The incredible conclusion of Harvard real estate professor (and author of the paper) Jesse Keenan, is that ordinary home owners are already factoring future sea level rise into their calculations.
What about the island nation of Barbados, where I lived with wifey for 20 plus years? It won't be any better for Bim's residents - unless they are living toward the higher elevations as indicated in the topographical map below
Here the green coded area is greatest in elevation over sea level - from 194m to 338 m. To spare Bim's populace from the ravages of sea level rise on the same scale we expect for South Florida, they'd have to move to this area. The most populated areas near the south coast (1- 3 m elevation) would be totally reclaimed by the ocean. Already as I posted previously, sea level rise has claimed large chunks of the beaches in and around Christchurch and St. Michael parishes. On several visits to Bim over the past several years we've seen the encroachment of the sea first hand.
The future for Barbados and other island states does not look promising as an article in the UK Independent notes:
"With a sea-level rise of one metre, which is now regarded as highly likely by the end of the century, the Caribbean would see "at least 149 multi-million dollar tourism resorts damaged or lost" and would also see loss or damage of 21 of the Caricom airports, and the inundation of land surrounding 35 of the region's 44 portsmage leapt upwards, as one metre of sea level.
With a two-metre sea-level rise, by no means impossible, there would be "at least 233 multi-million dollar tourism resorts lost" plus damage or loss of nine power plants, 31 airports, and the loss of 710km of roads. However, when a more sophisticated analysis was done on the impacts of erosion caused by rising seas, it was found that the damage leapt upwards, as one metre of sea level rise on low-lying coasts gives between 50 and 100 metres of erosion. A one-metre rise with erosion factored in would result in "at least 307 multi-million dollar tourism resorts damaged or lost," the report says."
So we are talking calamitous economic and topographical changes here. Almost certainly permanent and indeed - with increased warming - the forecast can only get worse. Indeed, we are speculating that at the current rapid Greenland ice sheet melt rate our favorite Bajan beach (below) may no longer even exist by the time we next visit.
Lastly, let's bear in mind that sea level rise is only one aspect of the ongoing climate catastrophe. The other is the increased frequency of extraordinarily hot days - spiking heat indices to unheard of levels (110 F and above) as lives and livelihoods are put at risk.
"The team's projections bumped up against the limits of the NWS heat index formula, which is capable of calculating a value for 99 percent of summertime conditions. The analysis found that as climate change intensifies extreme heat, the numbers will often rise beyond the calculable range."
In other words, we are taking of conditions at the cusp of the runaway Greenhouse effect. Conditions so radically divergent from those today that current heat index models are unable to calculate the temperature (or thermature) limits.
One thing for certain, with the incineration of the Amazon rain forest all our futures - especially for the younger generation - suddenly got much, much worse.
See also:
https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/rising-sea-level-threatens-hundreds-of-caribbean-resorts-says-un-report-2148034.html
And:
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