Rapid Melting Of Greenland Ice Sheet : Will Our Favorite Barbados Beach Still Be There Next Time We Arrive?

It's been known for at least 38 years, that South Florida will be 'ground zero' when the rising seas from climate change begin to have their most serious impact. Indeed, the image of  projected sea reclamation by 2035  for Florida - in a U.S. Geological survey map -  was actually published first in a (World Book) Science Encyclopedia article from 1981.   

Meanwhile, sea rise prognostications had forecast a 20- 25 ft. increase by 2070 owing to the melting of Greenland' enormous ice sheet.  But frankly, that's all gone by the backboards as we now have direct evidence the melting of the Greenland ice sheet has accelerated and dramatically.  

How much are we talking about?  According to the latest reports (cf. The Denver Post, Aug. 25, p. 1A, 'Greater Mass Loss Going Forward'):

"By the end of the summer about 440 million tons of ice wil have melted or calved off Greenland's giant ice sheet. "

Adding:

"In the span of July 31 to August 3, more than 58 billion tons melted from the surface. This is more than 40 billion tons more than the average for this time of year."

Which elicits the question of what transpires if this rate of melt is sustained or even accelerates? It seems clear that in such a case the forecast that "Greenland alone would cause 3-4 feet of sea level rise" must be advanced, possibly to 2040 or even earlier.  Indeed, Greenland accelerated melting is  now evident given (ibid.):

"A NASA satellite found that Greenland's ice sheet lost about 255 billion metric tons of ice a year between 2003  and 2016, with the loss rate generally getting worse over that period."

Add that to the melting of the Arctic ice caps and Antarctic ice shelf as well and one can imagine a scenario for a 20-25 ' sea level rise by mid century.   We also now have to factor in the effects of the burning Amazon rain - forest - likely to add 2- 5 gigatons of carbon to the already CO2 sodden atmosphere.  This is no longer in the realm of science fiction such as portrayed in flicks like 'Waterworld'.  

Just look at the projected map of sea reclamation projected by the U.S. Geological survey for Florida by 2035. Now imagine a sea level rise instead of 3 m and five times the number of Florida residents affected. Yes, it is quite within the realm of plausibility now.  Hell, we've even seen how Miami itself is now subject to flooding.  The map below of the Miami area shows effect of elevation on rate of property price appreciation:

Where the more contrast colored purple section refers to greater effect on rate of appreciation.  The incredible conclusion of Harvard real estate professor (and author of the paper) Jesse Keenan, is that ordinary home owners are already factoring future sea level rise into their calculations.

What about the island nation of Barbados, where I lived with wifey for 20 plus years?  It won't be any better for Bim's residents - unless they are living toward the higher elevations as indicated in the topographical  map below

Here the green coded area is greatest in elevation over sea level - from 194m to 338 m. To spare Bim's populace from the ravages of sea level rise on the same scale we expect for South Florida, they'd have to move to this area.  The most populated areas near the south coast (1- 3 m elevation) would be totally reclaimed by the ocean. Already as I posted previously, sea level rise has claimed large chunks of the beaches in and around Christchurch and St. Michael parishes.  On several visits to Bim over the past several years we've seen the encroachment of the sea first hand.

The future for Barbados and other island states does not look promising as an article in the UK Independent  notes:

"With a sea-level rise of one metre, which is now regarded as highly likely by the end of the century, the Caribbean would see "at least 149 multi-million dollar tourism resorts damaged or lost" and would also see loss or damage of 21 of the Caricom airports, and the inundation of land surrounding 35 of the region's 44 portsmage leapt upwards, as one metre of sea level.  

With a two-metre sea-level rise, by no means impossible, there would be "at least 233 multi-million dollar tourism resorts lost" plus damage or loss of nine power plants, 31 airports, and the loss of 710km of roads. However, when a more sophisticated analysis was done on the impacts of erosion caused by rising seas, it was found that the damage leapt upwards, as one metre of sea level rise on low-lying coasts gives between 50 and 100 metres of erosion. A one-metre rise with erosion factored in would result in "at least 307 multi-million dollar tourism resorts damaged or lost," the report says."

So we are talking calamitous economic and topographical changes here. Almost certainly permanent and indeed - with increased warming - the forecast can only get worse.  Indeed, we are speculating that at the current rapid Greenland ice sheet melt rate our favorite Bajan beach (below)  may no longer even exist by the time we next visit. 

Lastly, let's bear in mind that sea level rise is only one aspect of the ongoing climate catastrophe.  The other is the increased frequency of extraordinarily hot days -  spiking heat indices to unheard of levels (110 F and above) as lives and livelihoods are put at risk.

To fix ideas, the Union of Concerned Scientists 'Killer Heat' team recently compared historic averages over the period 1971- 2000 with projected heat indices for the middle to the end of this century. Their finding? 

"The team's projections bumped up against the limits of the NWS heat index formula, which is capable of calculating a value for 99 percent of summertime conditions. The analysis found that as climate change intensifies extreme heat, the numbers will often rise beyond the calculable range."

In other words, we are taking of conditions at the cusp of the runaway Greenhouse effect. Conditions so radically divergent from those today that current heat index models are unable to calculate the temperature (or thermature) limits.

One thing for certain, with the incineration of the Amazon rain forest  all our futures - especially for the younger generation - suddenly got much,  much worse.

See also:

https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/rising-sea-level-threatens-hundreds-of-caribbean-resorts-says-un-report-2148034.html


And:

Brazil | Environmental Policy

Bolsonaro’s Horrific Plans for the Amazon Revealed in Leaked Presentation

And:

Donald Trump | Energy Policy | Environmental Policy

Trump and the Climate Crisis — a Crime Against Humanity

"Climate Change Has Run Its Course?" More Balderdash From An Academic Know Nothing

Devastation in Puerto Rico following Hurricane Maria, which climate scientists agree was spawned by warmer ocean temperatures from global warming.

In a WSJ article Tuesday (p. A15) by Steven F. Hayward  ('Climate Change Has Run Its Course') it is claimed that climate change is now passé  and "climate change as an issue is essentially over". It is quite possible that Hayward, a "senior resident scholar" at the University of California -Berkeley,  really is a scholar of some repute at least in "government studies".   But the tripe he wrote for the WSJ a few days ago discloses him as merely another climate know nothing who probably has never even taken a college physics course.

Basically this dunderhead trots out all the usual canards which I do not intend to go through  in detail -  as I've addressed them dozens of times  with other uninformed dopes, pretenders and propagandists, e.g. Steve Koonin, David R. Henderson, Roger Pielke Jr. et al.  So I will just take up the new arguments that Hayward insists disqualifies the topic as anything of immediate import.

What is ironic here, is just as I was reading Hayward's codswallop, wifey and I were on the phone with an agent from the Hartford, to discuss yet another roof replacement.  This was to do with replacing all the tiles on our roof after another mega hailstorm barely three weeks ago - with many stones the size of golf balls or half dollars. This followed an initial hail storm featuring baseball size hail in 2016 which saw us replacing the roof for the first time.  This after residing 17 going on 18 years here in Colorado, but which featured two massive hailstorms in the past two years that required new roofing.  Of course, even the most menial moron ought to be able to grasp this is linked to climate change. Just as the drought we're in the middle of which has now eroded the snowpack to 50 % of what it was a few months ago.
 
This triggered water restrictions in Manitou Springs, nearby, but not yet here in Colorado Springs. (Though it should!)  Meanwhile, we're now in the midst of a string of 90 degree plus days or some 15 degrees hotter than normal.

And this is just the beginning of what we here in Colorado can expect. Merely two years ago the average temperature in Denver for June, July and August was 72.7 degrees — 1.5 degrees higher than the annual average of 71.2 dating to 1872, according to Kyle Fredin, meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Boulder. If current trends in heat-trapping emissions continue, Denver residents by 2050 will face an average of 35 days a year where temperatures hit 95 degrees or hotter, the study found. 

Boulder by 2050 will have an average 38 days a year with temperatures exceeding 95 degrees and, by the end of the century, an average of 75 such days a year. The studies found Fort Collins by 2050 will have an average 24 days with temperatures exceeding 95 degrees and 58 days on average by the end of the century.

These numbers may not significantly impress many people, but they should given they mean vastly more demands on the power grid.  Moreover, our power grid demands will be multiplied across the nation and people will take notice as their electricity costs spike upward from 100-200%.   Also, as extended periods of each day find people - wherever they live- without power,  especially in 100 degree plus temperatures.

Factor in also the "one hundred year storms" with rain downpours the likes of which that can sweep whole towns away - such as for Ellicot City, MD recently.   See e.g.
http://brane-space.blogspot.com/2017/11/rivers-from-skies-nature-of-mega.html

Then there is the ongoing risk of flooding in Miami  given sea level rise.  Even though it may only be measured in inches these rain events are able to flood the streets even on sunny days if there is also a king tide on those days..

Research published  in the journal Environmental Research Letters  and reported in the WSJ (April 21-22, p. A3) shows that "single family homes in Miami Dade County are rising in value more slowly near sea level than at higher elevations."  

 Reinforcing Keenan's work, the WSJ (ibid.) cites another new paper from researchers at the University of Colorado-Boulder and Pennsylvania State University. This paper "shows the trend in Miami is playing out across the country, with homes vulnerable to rising sea levels now selling at a 7 percent discount compared to similar but less expensive properties."

But all this is but a prelude to what can be expected by 2035, e.g. as seen in this U.S. Geological survey projected map:


I reference all the above, as well as the monster hurricanes last year, that wreaked havoc in Texas, Florida and Puerto Rico given the following words from Hayward's piece:

"While opinion surveys find that roughly half of Americans regard climate change as a problem, the issue has never achieved the high salience among the public,  despite the drumbeat of alarm from the climate campaign. Americans consistently ranked climate the 19th or 20th of 20 leading issues."


Eliciting the question of why this is so when Europeans - who generally aren't threatened by monster hurricanes or tornado outbreaks - rank it consistently higher. Are the Germans, Dutch, British more intelligent than Americans? I wouldn't say so only that their media do not undermine the message by  canceling out the alarms by publishing the dreck from rightist and libertarian think tanks in the misplaced interest of "balance".   These op-ed pieces are written mainly by propagandists and climate deniers paid by the think tanks so the newspapers save money by filling space without using actual journalists.. Again, we call this agnotology.   As Exhibit One I present this garbage published in the WSJ in January, 2012:











In many ways it's cut from the same patch of recycled, already skewered balderdash as Hayward's recent piece. As I have pointed out repeatedly, agnotology, derived from the Greek 'agnosis' - the study of culturally constructed ignorance- is achieved primarily by sowing the teeniest nugget of doubt in whatever claim is made (and as we know NO scientific theory is free of uncertainty).

Stanford historian of science Robert Proctor has correctly tied it to the trend of skeptic science sown deliberately and for political or economic ends . In other words, the supporters of agnotology - whoever they may be- are all committed to one end: destroying the science to enable economic profit and hence planetary ruin. Proctor also notes these special interests are often paid handsomely to sow immense confusion on the issue.  Hence, it's no surprise most of the twits who scribble these pieces hail from economics, government studies or political science - and also belong to rightist, corporate think tanks (e.g. American Enterprise Institute, Heritage Foundation, Manhattan Institute, Hoover Institution). In Hayward's case, he is an imp from  the American Enterprise Institute.

Despite all this, as well as the fact that typical brains take more time to process slow moving threats, I am still convinced climate change will make its way up the priority ranking of issues for Americans.  It is bound to after enough of their homes are destroyed by tornado outbreaks, hail storms, floods, or general severe storms such as intensifying hurricanes.  All spinoffs as climate change ramps up.

Knowing Hayward's connection to that think tank I wasn't the least  surprised when he wrote the following:

"The descent of climate change into social justice identity politics represents the last gasp of a cause  that has lost its vitality."
-
SO in other words, we are to ignore the fact that the poorest, most resource -devastated populations are usually the most ferociously hit, such as in Puerto Rico. (See image at top).  In that instance, when reporters like David Muir from ABC travel to Puerto Rico's hinterlands to show us vast scenes of devastation and the people drinking from contaminated pools to get water,  we are to see them as detached from us - maybe a different species. But lord help you if you identify with them.  As if there is no way such a fate could ever befall the rest of us, especially in the nightmare that is Trump world - where Scott Pruitt's EPA is daily wrecking more and more protections from climate change onslaught.

Anyone can see this is irresponsible nonsense, and in fact if we dispel identity politics in any form we cede the memetic and political battlefield to the Right.  Naomi Klein put it thusly in her book NO Is Not Enough - Resisting Trump's Shock Politics'   :

"It is short-sighted,  not to mention dangerous, for liberals  and progressives to abandon their own focus on identity politics",

because:

"To a terrifying degree, skin color and gender conformity are determining who is physically safe in the hands of the state, who is at risk from vigilante violence, who can express themselves without constant harassment and who can cross a border without terror."

Process that the next time you see the images of Trump tossing packages of paper towels to Puerto Ricans after Maria, and marveling at only "16 dead" when we now know the total is over 4,600.

Instead of peddling horse manure like in his WSJ op-ed, Steven Hayward ought to be explaining to his groupies why it is that reinsurance companies like Munich Re all have climate change factored into their tables, costs, plans. But he won't because he's a puppet for those whose only interest is to milk the oil out of the planet, even if it surpasses the 550 gigaton limit we can extract without triggering the runaway Greenhouse.

See also:

http://www.smirkingchimp.com/thread/jeremy-brecher/79526/a-climate-constitution-in-the-courts-and-the-streets

Miami's Residents Now Factor Climate Change Into Housing Costs

It's been known for some time, at least 35 years, that South Florida will be 'ground zero' when the rising seas from climate change begin to have their most serious impact. Indeed, the image produced giving a U.S. Geological survey map - with projected inundations by 2035, was actually published first in a Science Encyclopedia from 1981.

More recently, it's come to the attention of those who live in Miami or Miami -Dade (the greater metro area) that some areas flood during heavy rainfall and even on sunny days - when high tides known as "king tides" can swell the sea.

In fact, a 2016 study in the journal Ocean and Coastal Management found that the frequency of flooding increased significantly in Miami Beach between 2003 and 2016, with rain-induced events jumping 33 percent and tide-induced events soaring more than 400 percent.

How are tide-induced events generated and how are they connected to climate change? An examination of the diagram below can help which serves to illustrate tidal effects at Barbados:


It is not too difficult to see that the Moon would exert a pull, say  with force F1,   on the near point -  call it A on the Earth. By the same token, point B on the opposite side from A would be pulled  (say  with force F2) )nearer to the Moon than the water above it, thereby inducing a high tide at point B as well. In other words, two separate pulls, with F1 > F2,  resulting in two high tides at locations A  and B.  In this context one can appreciate the concept of differential gravitational pull.

Now, a "king tide" is the common term given to high ("spring") tides which occur when the Moon is at its closest position ("perigee") relative to the Earth.  The difference in distance works out to about 50,000 km or 30,000 miles.  That difference is enough to  generate a significant differential gravitational tidal pull at high tide - when the alignment is as shown.

In a normal situation such tides wouldn't constitute a flooding threat other than when the configuration occurs during a storm, e.g. hurricane. But to have it occur even on sunny days shows some other factor at work - and that other factor is incipient rising seas from climate change.  In effect, the sea level rise - even though it may only be measured in inches - is ample to flood the streets of Miami on sunny days if there is also a king tide on those days. 

That may still sound somewhat sketchy except now we have evidence from Miami property values that the rising seas from climate change  is factoring into realty assessments. Research published last Friday in the journal Environmental Research Letters  and reported in the WSJ (April 21-22, p. A3) shows that "single family homes in Miami Dade County are rising in value more slowly near sea level than at higher elevations."

Why is this? Well, it's entering into buyer considerations of possible "more frequent minor flooding in the short term and the challenge of reselling properties that  decades from now could be submerged. (Again, refer to the projected U.S. Geological survey map).''  The map of the Miami area showing effect of elevation on rate of price appreciation is shown below:

Where the more contrast colored purple section refers to greater effect on rate of appreciation.  The incredible conclusion of Harvard real estat4e professor (and author of the paper) Jesse Keenan, is that ordinary home owners are already factoring future sea level rise into their calculations.

 Reinforcing Keenan's work, the WSJ (ibid.) cites another new paper from researchers at the University of Colorado-Boulder and Pennsylvania State University. This paper "shows the trend in Miami is playing out across the country, with homes vulnerable to rising sea levels now selling at a 7 percent discount compared to similar but less expensive properties.".  In addition the paper "shows that the size of coastal discount has grown over time".  The same thing appears to be happening in Barbados, especially as hotels, beach houses now start to discount their rates after obvious sea level increase has eroded their once extensive beach fronts.

In the case of Miami it's an obvious testing ground for the vulnerability of housing markets to sea level rise- climate change because its elevation "is as little as 1 foot above sea level".

The WSJ cites one particular Miami native (Joel Fabelo) whose previous waterfront home "increasingly flooded in the final five days they lived there" - and "a half a dozen times each year when tides were especially high, water rose over the sea wall leaving mullets swimming on the lawn."

Are Miami's home owners loopy?  Are they too susceptible to global warming "blurtations"? Nope, they have their heads screwed on straight and they know what they know - and what they see with their own eyes. Moreover, like  nearly all the reinsurance companies (e.g.  Munich Re) they have climate change factored into their tables, costs, plans.  They better, because they will be ground zero as the planet's sea level continues its inexorable rise owing to melting ice caps, and the Greenland ice sheet.