Mail Call Brane: Readers Seeking Answers

Just curious as to the latest on Colorado’s MJ laws, and Implementing them.- Allan, Montreal, Quebec

A. The latest news is that on Wednesday the Colorado legislature made history, becoming the first in the nation to pass laws regulating recreational marijuana use. This now makes 4 major bills passed this year on marijuana legalization, and now the legislature awaits Gov. Hickenlooper to sign them. If he does sign them, and as a Dem Governor presiding over a D-legislature he ought to, then we will see the following (Denver Post, Thurs. May 9, p. 1A):


1-Marijuana will be sold in specially licensed stores that can also sell pot-related items such as pipes. However, only Colorado residents can own and invest in the stores, and only current medical marijuana dispensary owners can apply to open recreational pot shops for the first nine months. The first stores will open on Jan, 1, 2014.

2- Colorado residents will be able to buy up to an ounce of marijuana, the maximum legal amount for non-medical needs. Out of staters will be able to purchase only a quarter ounce at a time. The pot must also be sold in child-resistant packages, with labels that specify potency.

3- Voters will have the option of imposing heavy taxes on pot sales. A ballot measure set for November will ask voters to approve a 15 % excise tax and an additional 10 percent sales tax on marijuana. The excise tax will fund school construction while the sales tax will fund MJ regulation. Hickenlooper has already advised voters to pass the bills, and one wonders given his past MJ opposition, whether he will postpone signing the passed bills until November. And also, if the tax ballots don’t pass, then vetoing the four already passed MJ bills. I wouldn’t put this past a guy that once drank fracked water and claimed it was fine.

4- Incorporated marijuana collectives will be banned, so will MJ coffee shops, MJ-smoking in bars and gov’t run MJ stores. Though Colo. will have the most liberal MJ laws in the country – it will have the most restrictive laws in the country for MJ-themed magazines. These, like pornography, will have to be kept under the counter. (Publications such as 'High Times' have vowed to sue.)


5-Colorado drivers for the first time will be subject to a “stoned driving limit” (which is still being worked out). Juries will be allowed to presume that anyone testing above the limit was too high to drive.


Q. Were you aware that Sally Jewel, President Barack Obama's newest appointed Secretary of the Interior, is a pro-fracking hireling? Having read your blogs on fracking I wonder what you make of this appointment?
- Cheryl T., Wauwatosa, Wisc.


A. Okay, what Jewell actually said is: “ We must develop our domestic energy resources armed with the best available science, and this unbiased, objective information will help private, nonprofit and government decision makers at all levels make informed decisions about the responsible development of these resources. “ And yes, a number of right wing papers (i.e. The Washington Examiner) have taken this to be a strong endorsement of fracking. But as the Examiner puts it:


"Jewell was referring to hydraulic fracturing, or 'fracking, ' the process by which a pressurized mixture of (mostly) water and chemicals is injected into shale rock formations deep underground. The process provides access to natural gas deposits that would otherwise be impossible to reach. The technology has been in use for 60 years in Texas and Oklahoma, but its phenomenally successful use more recently in Pennsylvania to develop the Marcellus Shale and in North Dakota to develop the Bakken formation has sparked an energy revolution in this country.  Environmentalists oppose fracking, claiming it threatens groundwater even though the evidence for this claim is all but nonexistent.”


Of course, assuming this is so, then it would be an unmitigated disaster. Anyone who has read my prior blogs on fracking would see why, e.g. http://brane-space.blogspot.com/2013/02/that-disgusting-oil-reeking-fluid.html
and  http://brane-space.blogspot.com/2013/03/doctors-muzzled-to-prevent-warning.html


The facts are substantial so that appeal to scientific basis must mean not going forward with fracking and applying the precautionary principle: the frackers must prove their methods aren’t harmful to ground water supplies, not the converse- that potential victims must prove the harm. Already there have been more than 1,000 documented cases of water contamination while methane leaks associated with hydraulic fracturing have caused houses and wells to explode.  Moreover, fracking doesn’t just contaminate water but air as well. Residents in Dish, TX have repeatedly complained of illness since frackers arrived. Air quality tests have revealed high levels of benzene in the air.


The notion of natural gas as “clean energy” is also a myth. While it emits half as much carbon as coal and 70% as much as oil, it still imposes a carbon burden. In addition, it emits large quantities of methane gas which is 30 times more potent than CO2.  These figures, though smaller than the coal and oil carbon burdens ought not be ignored given that we have now hit 400 ppm of CO2 in the atmosphere, a threshold not reached for nearly 3 million years (Denver Post, today, p. 1B). What the new threshold means is that we have far less margin for error. Do we really want to conduct an aberrant experiment to turn our planet into another Venus, with a runaway Greenhouse effect - making it uninhabitable for future generations?

The production of this fuel also isn’t “clean” as it damages water, air and infrastructure. It is, in reality, no different from fouling our own nest to get a temporary solution to an energy problem –which is really spawned by too high a global population and too concentrated energy use.


Here are 5 other facts on fracking that ought to cause alarm and get the attention of our politicos who are too often hostage to special (read 'monied') interests:

1- Fracking a single well requires more than a million gallons of water. Here in COS, a number of wells have consumed over 3 million gallons, and many have come up empty. This insanity is occurring in an arid region in which we’ve had severe drought the past three years. The wastewater produced by fracking also contains high levels of radioactivity that wastewater treatment plants aren’t equipped to deal with.


2- Dangerous fracking chemicals are kept secret. In many states, the drilling companies won’t disclose the chemicals used in the fracking fluid, claiming the mixture is a “trade secret”. But independent analysts have identified 41 known chemicals most highly toxic carcinogens.


3- There exists a “Halliburton Loophole” with respect to most laws and oversight applied to fracking. This means the effluent generate by the frackers as well as their shale driller cohorts is exempt the Clean Air Act and the Safe Drinking Water Act So, E coli, is controlled in your water but it’s A-ok if carcinogenic benzene piles up.  Pardon me, but this selective regulation shows the paws of big, I mean BIG, lobby money!


4- The number of fracking wells is now growing at an exponential rate, in 28 states.

5- Turning on your tap (see image in previous links) liberates water accompanied by methane which can catch fire.

Fracking is unacceptable as an energy extraction process, since it imposes severe long term health costs to extract a temporary energy fix.


Q. In your April 13 blog on Bird Flu you mentioned the reported mortality rate of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza and that “studies of the levels of cytokines in humans infected by the H5N1 flu virus show elevated levels of tumor necrosis factor-alpha a protein associated with tissue destruction at sites of infection and increased production of other cytokines” What does this mean for getting sick? How sick can you get? - Delores, Bellingham, WA


A. Pretty damned sick! So sick in fact, that even if you don't die you will likely want to. The tumor necrosis factor-alpha a protein is implicated in severe inflammation and also potential degeneration of organs affected, including kidneys and lungs. Similar effects were reported during the Spanish Flu pandemic but of course the micro-biological, genetic marker tie- ins weren’t then available. However, doctors who performed the autopsies of some patients reported lungs turned to jelly as well as other organs. Basically, with the cytokine storm and tumor necrosis factor-alpha a protein, your whole body is sent into a death spiral of organ shutdown, shock,coma from immune system over-stimulation.

The closest I came to this was in December, 1968 when I got the Hong Kong Flu. I vomited for days, could barely breathe as I coughed up bloody mucus with each spasm, and felt like I had burst at least one lung. It was a god-awful experience I never want to repeat, and that flu barely killed 1 m around the world. The H5N1 will likely be 100 to 500 times more lethal and brutal.  I took more than 2 months to recuperate.


Q. I got a kick out of your brother Mike’s comments in your April 21 blog on the biblical exegesis test. He claimed that “the Jesuits themselves are the “storm troopers” of the RCC, and their purpose is propagation of the RC faith by any means possible? (i.e., SATAN!)”

What is he some kind of a crackpot? I couldn’t believe this guy couldn’t take the bible test or even answer one little question. And he claims to read the good book! It seems to me he’s got a lot of talk but little to show for it. I notice that since April 30 you have totally ignored him. Is this intentional? Alice K, Joliet, IL


It is. I think I mentioned in my blog on Colorado MJ issues and Mike's onerous errors (‘Reefer Madness Redux’, April 30) that since it's useless to try to argue or debate him (since he’s totally ignorant of the basic parameters that apply to the content of any worthwhile argument) . there'd be no further exchanges. At least not until he could pass a basic test in logic, for which I provided a link at the end of the blog.


Up to now, he’s not taken the test - which indicates to me he has no logic to demonstrate, nor is he the least interested in using logic in his arguments. This being the case, he's all about making noise and nothing more.

Therefore,  it’s a waste of time to engage him on any issue. He can believe whatever he wants to believe, but I don't have to give any heed to what I regard as noise.  If then he chooses to come to this blog (which he probably does to dredge for new material since he can’t think of any on his own) that’s his choice. As far as I am concerned his blog exists only as background noise in the blogosphere. It merits no more attention than noise, and certainly not being considered as any signal.  And if it is noise, then none of his harangues or "issues"  merit being dignified by any response.

Q. My husband of 44 just had his lab test come back and his PSA has tripled in 2 yrs. from 1.8 to 5.5.  I have pleaded with him to get a biopsy but he's terrified of sepsis as he read that this occurs in any cases with these biopsies. He also fears, after reading your own blog of July 19 last year (Notes on a prostate biopsy) having a young female physician assistant doing the procedure and not the actual urologist. He also fears the type of pain you described. Is there any way to get him to change? I fear he might have an aggressive cancer that might kill him!- Genevieve R.,  Los Angeles, CA

A. Your husband is actually quite right to be concerned, as the incidence of deaths, infections (including from sepsis, or massive blood poisoning via infection) have risen sharply, see e.g. http://www.naturalnews.com/033660_prostate_biopsy.html

As the article notes:

"....the research team found that having a prostate biopsy resulted in men being more than twice as likely to need hospitalization in the immediate post-procedure period. And once hospitalized, the men were at an increased risk of serious complications including bleeding and infection, flare-ups of underlying medical conditions (such as heart failure or breathing disorders) and death.


The researchers emphasized in their paper that their new data should remind doctors to carefully consider the risks and benefits of biopsy for individual patients before performing biopsies to look for cancer in the prostate"

See also: http://www.npr.org/2011/05/23/136501992/doctors-fret-over-rise-in-prostate-biopsy-infections


So what to do?  The best advice is to discuss the problem with one's personal physician, and this includes a cost -benefits assessment. In my case, the biopsy was done after PSA doubling, and then after the free PSA test, which also yielded a high probability of cancer. (The free PSA may actually be the most sensible next step. It measures the concentration of free prostate specific antigen, i.e. in the blood, relative to the bound form. The result comes back as a percentage. If it is 25% or higher then the chances are more than 90% the problem is enlargement of the prostate, not cancer. If the result is 5% or less, then the odds switch in the other direction: 77% that it's cancer and not benign hypertrophy.)


My biopsy, done after the free PSA,  then found an aggressive adenocarcinoma in two cores (Gleason socre 4+3) , and cancer present in five (lowest score Gleason 3+3). I was told by the urologist that watchful waiting could not be an option, so elected to have high dose radiotherapy. 

The infection risk from prostate biopsies can be contained with scrupulous cleanliness, and that means a thorough enema before hand. Also, the biopsy patient  takes a ciproflaxin  pill just before. Another alternative is to have the biopsy performed via the trans-perineal route (through the perineum) which carries vastly less risk of infection because the rectum wall isn't being penetrated by the tissue extracting needles. The problem is that this trans-perineal procedure is usually more costly, since in general the patient has to be put under (general anesthesia) and more staff are needed to be present.

Re: the physician assistant, I don't think the sex ought to matter - but whether the person is competent. A good way to find out is to become a temporary member of 'Angie's List' and then look up urologists and see what the reviews say.  The fact is that more and more physician assistants are now doing these procedures, and if they have the proper training - which most do - then the expertise should not be an issue.

What Do You Do If A Bird Flu Pandemic is Coming? (2)

With the latest reports of the cases of human Avian flu  increasing- and spreading- the interest in what Americans need to do is not purely academic or abstract. It entails genuine grave decisions on matters of life and death. Some further areas I want to cover in this blog post include:  hygiene, cooking when electricity is either not available or only partially,  and wills.

Hygiene:

There are two aspects here, external and internal - the first to do with interactions with the outside world in the grip of Avian  H5 N1 flu, and the second pertaining to your household when one or more members becomes ill.

In the external realm, you will want to protect yourself by "social distancing"  - avoiding gatherings of people, or even simple social occasions whether weddings, parties or whatever. This sounds harsh, but we know from data compiled during the Spanish flu pandemic that those who were most likely to survive minimized their contacts with the outside word and had few if any occasions to mingle. Mingling in any venue means chances increase for droplet or touch infection, even if you're wearing a flu mask - and you should wear one if you go out, even to shop for other needed odds and ends (e.g. battery chargers, Mag-lites etc.).

Also, it goes without saying that when you return home you wash hands rigorously, no 5 seconds and done.  During the recent norovirus outbreak I even went one step further by using antiseptic wipes on the surfaces of any bottles, or cans purchased at the grocery which I intended for immediate use. This after learning that the norovirus can last up to 13 or more days on surfaces. As I already had a wife recovering from H3N2 flu, I didn't want her - or me (as the primary helper) to get norovirus on top of it.

Now, ridicule the films 'Contagion' and 'Fatal Contact- Bird Flu in America' as scare mongering if you will, but the fact is people are often way too 'touch happy' during even seasonal flu outbreaks and this is what brings perdition on them and their families. They touch each other, shake hands, hug in the grocery mart, then touch their noses, face etc. --- and as the CDC character notes in 'Contagion' - up to 3500 times an hour!  In a time of Avian Flu, if you happen to go out and about, you want to minimize touching as much as feasible. Use readily disposable latex gloves if you must go out at the height of an epidemic or pandemic, and then the payment will not be as fierce if you touch door knobs, elevator buttons or other contaminated surfaces.

Those who think these precautions are over the top, I suggest you get hold of PBS' documentary on the Spanish flu and watch it, especially the scenes of the bloody vomit and sputum covering hospital beds and the lungs (at autopsy)  turned into jello after the subjects shown were infected. This isn't a damned joke, not one bit.


The hygiene principles applied to external agents can be also applied to the household. How did I avoid getting H3N2 flu when my wife had it? A number of precautions, all  based on reasonable separation and isolation, which would help in the event Avian Flu takes down any person in your household:



1- Keeping all utensils, dishes etc. separate – each person using his, her own.

2- The infected person covering every sneeze or cough to reduce the likelihood of droplet infection.

3- Washing hands after touching almost everything including laptop (that we sometimes share), phone, or even a door knob. As for phone, using wipes to scrub it down before making or taking a call.

4- No touching of the face if you can help it, including picking at nose, rubbing eyes, putting fingers into mouth etc. Be conscious of what you are doing with fingers, hands!

5- Sleeping in separate bedrooms -if this is feasible-  especially as infected people will experience severe coughing bouts at night which they'll not  be able control- hence droplets spread through the room.

The above are all in place once a household member gets ill

  Cooking when Electricity is a problem:

 Let's face it- eating canned foods for three months may not be everyone's cup of tea. For those who want some degree of diversity, you will need to get cooking gear that doesn't depend on electricity - and bear in mind the folks that operate your utility or power station can get sick too!

 The methods most recommended in survival handbooks include:  

- Two burner Coleman stove  

- Small Weber Kettle grill (burns charcoal briquettes but can use other materials)  

- Large Weber Propane grill that runs off a 20-lb propane tank.  

My preferences go to the first two, since I kind of instinctively distrust propane tanks. But this is still a personal choice.  A further note, since water is likely to be in short supply, it is useful to wrap any veggies or meats in aluminum foil before putting onto your heat source. This way you keep the surfaces of your grill or stove clean in a (likely) water -challenged situation and the last thing you want is salmonella with Avian  flu going around!  Just remember to stock plenty of aluminum foil along with your foods.    

Making out a Will:

 Incredibly, nearly 2 in 3 Americans have no Will. Though they may pout and whine about the "government" taking their hard earned money, this is where it all gets exposed as nonsense-- since without a will that's exactly what you're allowing to happen!  No one likes to think about the inevitable (except maybe the crazed fundies in their salvation and 'Hell' phantasms)  but think about it you must - especially when a flu pandemic is facing you.   Among the myths that people buy into:  

"Joint ownership of accounts, property etc. makes a will unecessary". 

This is a common misconception. In fact, joint ownership alone often creates needless state or federal estate taxes and may result in gift taxes being due. It may also deny you complete control over your property while you're still living. Thus, joint ownership is a poor substitute for a will but can work well in conjunction with one.  

"A Will is not needed for a small estate".

On the contrary, the smaller the assets or estate the more important it be settled quickly, since delays mean increased expenses cutting down the proceeds. In many cases, an estate is larger than the owner realizes, and it's often undervalued. Still have all those 1952 TOPPS baseball cards? Well, they are part of your estate and if in near mint condition, now worth over $55,000.  

Can you prepare a will - last will and testament- on your own? Yes, but it's not a good idea. The reason is that many do-it-yourself wills are declared null and void by the courts.   My wife and I got our original will done soon after our marriage (1975)  by an attorney  in Barbados, it took ten minutes and cost $100 Bds. We got our will revised about ten years ago, to take into account family-beneficiary changes etc. It was done by a local attorney for about $200 and took less than a half hour.  

Given such an important piece of the typical American's financial puzzle, it is incredible that more haven't done it. With a possible Avian flu pandemic it is essential it be done, and now may be the time to do it so you can focus your energies on collecting supplies later. Just a bit of advice!  

What IF the Bird Flu Pandemic Is Coming: What Do You DO? (1)

The ABC news report last night that a 7-year old Chinese girl has contracted Avian flu in Beijing, nearly 750 miles from Shanghai – the source of the outbreak-  ought to send chills down the spine of every sentient being. Though we don’t know exactly how she contracted the disease, whether from a distant wild bird or human – this we do know- this virus is evolving even as I write.

If we soon learn the virus has fully mutated to the highly pathological H5N1 form, and a global pandemic may be imminent what do you do? Of course, the first reaction (dumb!) of many will be denial: ‘It’s just a flu for cripes’ sakes!’, or ‘Look, the government is hyping it to try and get us under control!’ or: ‘I ain’t doin’ nuthin’ until I actually see people in my neighborhood getting’ sick!’


Devoid of any knowledge of the Spanish Flu Pandemic – which killed over 50 million over 1918-19- it is probably human nature to treat any flu outbreak as ‘no biggie’ but that could be a fatal error. I saw what my wife endured, with H3N2 flu and it was perhaps only one or two more days (unless she recovered) before I’d have had to rush her to an ER.

In the case of Avian H5N1 Flu, you'll not likely have weeks to endure and recover, but maybe a day or two. In that time you or a loved one will know if you or your loved one(s)  will live or die. And bear in mind here, hospitals will be overrun and switchboards clogged, so there will be little they can do once hordes of Avian-flu infected people begin pouring in.  This is also why a Will is essential for any Avian flu planning as well and I will go into that in the next blog.

What do you do when no one is yet ill but the Avian flu is rapidly spreading? First, note a huge difference between the H3N2 outbreak last year and a future Avian flu is that in the former one could still make multiple runs to the supermarket, and supplies didn’t run out. There were only limited numbers of the severely ill, perhaps 10,000 in a given community. This will not be so if Avian flu strikes the U.S. and millions of severe cases emerge within very short time spans. (Refer to the highly pathological effects, symptoms listed in the previous blog post)

Then, multiple runs will be made on every major supermarket,  corner grocery and even 7-11s as the outbreak takes down hundreds of thousands in the first week. So you can almost bet that will mean scarcity of grocery supplies within days. Don't be in the position of trying to build up your supplies, food stores when everyone else is, unless you don't mind getting stuck with Kibbles 'n Bits, lima beans and lemons.  The cautious move then is to begin (gradually) stockpiling food, water, etc. as soon as the CDC confirms human- to- human transmission of the H5N1 flu. Even if this is in Asia! So yes, that means you set to work BEFORE the first case is confirmed in the U.S.  Bear in mind here that this thing can and will be transmitted at the speed of modern jet flight - so after you hear the human-human transmission is verified in China, it may only be a day - perhaps 2 or 3 at most, before the first U.S. case shows up.  When that announcement is made by the health authorities, look for all hell to break loose!


The Y2K scare, though bogus, did provide an insight into how much food to cache. You are basically looking at a minimum of perhaps 3 months in isolation (with little or no gov't help)  and possibly local quarantines, once the flu strikes. Obviously, with runs on supermarkets the rule, there’ s little room for mathematical error. You begin by stocking as many diverse canned goods as possible: tuna, salmon, Spam, pineapple, chicken, beans, corn, spinach, whatever your family can go with and over a fairly long time. (In the next blog I will discuss cooking options, even if there’s no electric.)

How much to stockpile? That begins with the size of your household. Let’s say there are three people: 2 parents and one child. You will likely need (daily) the equivalent of 2 gallons of fresh water, and eight cans of tuna (or 4 cans tuna, 4 cans Spam) and three cans of corn (or three cans of beans, or pineapples). The sheer volume of stocked food is also another reason why it’s ridiculous to try and grab everything needed once the flu lands in your area. By then, you’ll only be able to get the dregs! So, what you’re likely looking at is a 2-3 week time interval to try to collect all the canned goods, water you estimate you will need.

Btw, that implies having a manual can opener – since electricity can’t be assumed to remain unaffected!

Re: water, remember to fill any bathtubs as well, since if the water ceases to be available (remember it depends on pumping which depends on electricity) you will still be able to flush the toilet.  Use the available water filled in bathtubs and  in any other containers you can find to flush toilets. Save the purchased bottled water for drinking. Since this flu brings on a “cytokine storm” as an over reaction of many human immune systems (see prior blog) and is liable to cause severe diarrhea and vomiting, you will definitely want to have enough to flush toilets!

Other items you will need to buy and store before the U.S. outbreak:

1- Functioning cellular phone with well-charged battery (rapid re-chargers should also be kept in reserve)

2- Obtain one or more dependable self-winding watches so you don't have to use batteries, or chargers to get the time.

3- Flashlights (e.g. Mag-lite) , and also keyring-sized LED lights such as those from Photon-Microlight,which can be worn on a ring.

4- A small AM/FM radio - to receive emergency broadcasts - and note there are several compact, magneto-driven wind up models  (Eton Emergency radio) available for most uses. Battery -operated models are also ok, provided you have on hand extra long life batteries.

5- A good First Aid kit, which contains adhesive bandages, antiseptic wipes, burn cream and other supplies. It's also a good idea to have plenty of boxes of spare antiseptic wipes on hand to wipe down surfaces if one or more in  your household becomes ill.

6- Disposable dust masks to filter out air pollutants (e.g. from mass- disposal pyres)  if you need to go outside. Also be sure to have a good supply of face masks, or "flu masks" - see e.g. .
http://www.webmd.com/cold-and-flu/features/swine-flu-h1n1-and-face-masks especially in the early phases of the U.S. Avian incursion.

7- Cash. Always have enough cash available, for example if food stores run out - or other critical stores (batteries) - and you may have only scalpers to buy from. One Survival Handbook recommends having on hand at least ten $100 bills, and at least twenty smaller denomination ($20) especially since if the electricity supply is interrupted there won't be any working ATMs.

More in Part 2 (Including hygiene, cooking without electricity and Will preparation)

Evidence Found Bird Flu Is Evolving: Will There Be A Pandemic Within 6 Months?

Electron micrograph of H5N1 influenza virus particles. 

The report appearing in yesterday's Milwaukee Journal -Sentinel was brief but had the impact of a blow to the solar plexus. Word, for word, it reported:

"Genetic analysis of the H5 N1 avian flu virus responsible for at least nine human deaths in China portrays a virus evolving to adapt to human cells, raising concern about its potential to spark a new global flu pandemic.

The collaborative study, conducted by a group led by Masato Tashiro of the Influenza Virus Research Center, National Institute of Infectious Diseases, and Yoshihiro Kawaoka of the University of Wisconsin-Madison and the University of Tokyo, appears in the current edition of the journal Eurosurveillance. The group examined the genetic sequences of H7N9 isolates from four of the pathogen's human victims as well as samples derived from birds and the environs of a Shanghai market.

"The human isolates, but not the avian and environmental ones, have a protein mutation that allows for efficient growth in human cells and that also allows them to grow at a temperature that corresponds to the upper respiratory tract of humans, which is lower than you find in birds," Kawaoka, a leading expert on avian influenza, said in a news release from UW-Madison.

The findings, drawn from genetic sequences deposited by Chinese researchers into an international database, provide some of the first molecular clues about a worrisome new strain of bird flu, the first human cases of which were reported on March 31 by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. So far, the new virus has sickened at least 33 people, killing nine. Although it is too early to predict its potential to cause a pandemic, signs that the virus is adapting to mammalian and, in particular, human hosts are unmistakable, says Kawaoka.

-------

The preceding ought to be enough to get any normal human's nerves on edge. Also, if unleashed in an outbreak against an essentially 'naked" (from immunity) populace, the results would be devastating. In 2003, world-renowned virologist Robert G. Webster published an article titled:  "The world is teetering on the edge of a pandemic that could kill a large fraction of the human population" in American Scientist. He called for adequate resources to fight what he sees as a major world threat to possibly billions of lives. 

On September 29, 2005, David Nabarro, the newly appointed Senior United Nations System Coordinator for Avian and Human Influenza, warned the world that an outbreak of avian influenza could kill anywhere between 5 million and 150 million people. The reported mortality rate of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza in a human is high; WHO data indicate 60% of cases classified as H5N1 resulted in death.

My take, given the H5N1 would (from cases analyzed thus far) incept a "cytokine storm" - similar to what the H1N1 Spanish Flu did, is that at least 500 million would perish, and possibly as many as 1 billion. I believe the reason the CDC is now barely a step from emergency mode (their website info now is partially 'redded out' with reference to old info and the emphasis is now on 'real time information) is because they are fully aware of the fact the Avian flu in its H5N1 human-to human manifestation could wipe out up to one seventh of the global populace.

Richard Besser, former CDC doc and now medical correspondent with ABC News, sounded downright nervous in his report last night from China, talking about a "race against the clock".

Back to the phenomenon of the cytokine storm: Research on genetically restored Spanish flu discloses that death likely arrived via a cytokine storm. In the current Avian flu cases,  one boy documented with H5N1 experienced diarrhea followed rapidly by a coma without developing respiratory or flu-like symptom. This shows that one can perish that suddenly, and with no evident breathing problems. There have been studies of the levels of cytokines in humans infected by the H5N1 flu virus. Of particular concern is elevated levels of tumor necrosis factor-alpha, a protein associated with tissue destruction at sites of infection and increased production of other cytokines. Flu virus-induced increases in the level of cytokines is also associated with flu symptoms, including fever, chills, vomiting and headache.

The inflammatory cascade triggered by H5N1 has been called a 'cytokine storm' by some, because of what seems to be a positive feedback process of damage to the body resulting from immune system stimulation. H5N1 induces higher levels of cytokines than the more common flu virus types.

The latest CDC Notice is given as follows:

The highly pathogenic avian influenza A (H5N1) epizootic (animal outbreak) in Asia, Europe, the Near East, and Africa is not expected to diminish significantly in the short term. It is likely that H5N1 virus infections among domestic poultry have become endemic in certain areas and that sporadic human infections resulting from direct contact with infected poultry and/or wild birds will continue to occur. So far, the spread of H5N1 virus from person-to-person has been very rare, limited and unsustained. However, this epizootic continues to pose an important public health threat.

There is little pre-existing natural immunity to H5N1 virus infection in the human population. If H5N1 viruses gain the ability for efficient and sustained transmission among humans, an influenza pandemic could result, with potentially high rates of illness and death worldwide. No evidence for genetic reassortment between human and avian influenza A virus genes has been found to date, and there is no evidence of any significant changes to circulating H5N1 virus strains to suggest greater transmissibility to or among humans.

Genetic sequencing of avian influenza A (H5N1) viruses from human cases in Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia shows resistance to the antiviral medications amantadine and rimantadine, two of the medications commonly used for treatment of influenza. This leaves two remaining antiviral medications (oseltamivir and zanamivir) that should still be effective against currently circulating strains of H5N1 viruses. A small number of oseltamivir resistant H5N1 virus infections of humans have been reported. Efforts to produce pre-pandemic vaccine candidates for humans that would be effective against avian influenza A (H5N1) viruses are ongoing. However, no H5N1 vaccines are currently available for human use.

Research suggests that currently circulating strains of H5N1 viruses are becoming more capable of causing disease (pathogenic) in animals than were earlier H5N1 viruses. One study found that ducks infected with H5N1 virus are now shedding more virus for longer periods without showing symptoms of illness. This finding has implications for the role of ducks in transmitting disease to other birds and possibly to humans as well. Additionally, other findings have documented H5N1 virus infection among pigs in China and Vietnam; H5N1 virus infection of cats (experimental infection of housecats in the Netherlands, isolation of H5N1 virus from domestic cats in Germany and Thailand, and detection of H5N1 viral RNA in domestic cats in Iraq and Austria); H5N1 virus infection of dogs (isolation of H5N1 virus from a domestic dog in Thailand); and isolation of H5N1 viruses from tigers and leopards at zoos in Thailand). In addition, H5N1 virus infection in a wild stone marten (a weasel-like mammal) was reported in Germany and in a wild civet cat in Vietnam. Avian influenza A (H5N1) virus strains that emerged in Asia in 2003 continue to evolve and may adapt so that other mammals may be susceptible to it as well.

Highly pathogenic H5N1 in people can include:


Symptoms:

• Fever and cough

• Acute respiratory distress

• Shortness of breath/difficulty breathing

• Abdominal pain

• Diarrhea

Complications:

• Pneumonia

• Respiratory failure

• Shock

  * Altered mental state


• Seizures


• Failure of multiple organs (e.g. kidney failure)


• Death


The other bit of news (from flu.gov) is  that Thailand has begun a phase 1 clinical trial to test an H5N1 avian, or bird, influenza vaccine in a needle-free, nasal spray form. This trial is a result of international collaboration with health agencies around the world, including the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services’ Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA). This is the first step in testing the new vaccine in humans. The study and data analysis is expected to be complete by May 2013.


People need to also grasp that even if an initial vaccine is successful, such virulent influenza outbreaks often come in waves. In the case of the Spanish flu there was a first relatively mild wave, then a much more deadly form (that incepted more cytokine storms).  The flu virus also mutates so that a vaccine that may work for the initial H5N1 onslaught may not work for a later one.  For a fairly good depiction of what could transpire, see the movie: 'Fatal Contact: Bird Flu in America'.  We are talking of so many dead that corpses have to be collected daily in the streets by garbage trucks, driven to landfills, stacked like cordwood and buried or set afire. We're also talking of massive dislocation of supply lines, supermarket shelves bare, and even the possibility of water, electricity output affected.  As for hospitals....the floods of patients in every city and town will overwhelm them and their resources within days!

Having seen what my own wife suffered - barely able to breathe at times-  with the H3N2 flu last December (written about in my Dec. 25 blog post) I don't want to see anything any worse! We may need to pare down the world's burgeoning populace- but not this way!