Kelvin wave
hitting Southern California: What to expect as El Niño threatens the coast
again
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A powerful El Niño is already
battering California’s coastline. Now a massive underwater wave is arriving
in Southern California, raising sea levels and potentially amplifying the
damage from storms, high tides and erosion. |
By now, after multiple Pacific hurricanes and the U.S. West roasting in abnormally high temperatures the past 10 days (both Denver and Colo. Springs breaking records), most of us have been aware heat building up. This can be traced to Kelvin waves. Coastal and equatorial Kelvin waves are massive, slow-moving subsurface ocean pulses that act as a primary physical driver of El Niño and regional weather change. Unlike surface waves at the beach, Kelvin waves do not break or curl. They are vast, underwater bulges—often thousands of miles wide, extending about 200 meters deep, and moving eastward at roughly 6 miles per hour (150 miles per day).
Most warm-water (downwelling) Kelvin waves depress the ocean's
thermocline (the boundary between warm surface water and deep cold water) as
they travel. Cold-water (upwelling) phases can also occur under opposing wind
conditions.
Their presence near the surface of the tropical Pacific eventually makes the entire planet warmer. The trend takes a while to materialize, but recent El Niños have led to annual global heat records in the year after they form. To that end, scientists broadly expect 2027 to be a veritable record breaker: the hottest year humans have ever experienced. This is given that El Niños have much stronger impacts on climate hazards and extreme worldwide. Look for example at the summer European heat waves, e.g.
El Niño then is the most violent manifestation of climate variability worldwide, with ranging from local fisheries collapse to widespread coral reef dieoffs, to severe droughts and food shortages around the world. It is useful then to see how El Niños form, as shown in these diagrams.
The bad news is that El Niño continues to ramp up which will cause havoc and climate catastrophe into 2027. The phenomenon's strength is determined by measuring water temperature in the central Pacific around the equator and comparing a three-month average to normal. If its 0.5 C (0.9 F) warmer than normal it becomes an El Niño. The peak of the scale is 2.0 C (3.6F) and is labeled 'very strong'. The most recent weekly El Niño figure has registered 3.4C (6.0 F) above normal and is classed as a "super" or historic El Niño event exceeding all previous records. This will mark the strongest event humans have ever endured and we had better be prepared. This super El Niño is expected to completely reshape the 2026–2027 winter pattern by energizing a highly active southern jet stream. Because this event is pacing toward historic levels, meteorologists expect its typical climate impacts (in the U.S.) to include:
- Torrential Rain: California faces a dramatically elevated risk for a barrage of moisture-heavy atmospheric rivers starting heavily in December.
- Flooding & Landslides:
Saturated soils from consecutive storms raise serious concerns for coastal
erosion, landslides, and flash flooding, particularly across Central and
Southern California.
- Deep Mountain Snow: Exceptional moisture is expected to bury upper mountain areas (above 7,000–8,000 feet) in feet of snow, heavily benefiting ski resorts like Mammoth Mountain. However, warmer temperatures mean resort base levels may see rain instead of snow.
- Delayed Winter in Midwest: A robust
northern jet stream will keep Arctic air bottled up in Canada. This will bring
widespread, above-average temperatures across the northern tier of the U.S.
- Less Lake-Effect Snow: Due to
the lack of early-winter Arctic outbreaks, the Great Lakes will remain largely
unfrozen, but the temperature contrast needed to trigger heavy lake-effect snow
will be mostly absent.
-Active Storm Track: The southern third of the country—from Texas through the Gulf Coast and into the Southeast—will experience a much cooler and stormier winter than normal. While the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic are overall expected to see below-average seasonal snow totals, super El Niños historically increase the risk of massive, singular Nor'easters. If the active southern storm track collides with a temporary blast of cold northern air in late January or February, major East Coast cities could still get slammed by a historic snowstorm.
Lastly, I should also note this warming is happening in an ocean that has been heating up for decades as it absorbs heat trapped by greenhouse gas emissions from human activity. The effects are not constrained to the Pacific. For example, what's being reflected by the dying coral reefs in the Caribbean and elsewhere:
is not a change in El Niño but decades of warming from greenhouse gases - the ocean itself absorbing much of the heat as well as CO2 leading to its increased acidity, e.g.
Brane Space: Physics Today Report Indicates Ocean Acidification Increasing
Even in the last month the daily global average sea surface temperature reached 21.1 degrees Celsius (70 degrees Fahrenheit), according to Europe’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, breaking the previous record set in March 2024. It really should not surprise anyone we have clearly passed major climate tipping points and the coming effects are sure to make them even worse.
All climate scientists - not poseurs like Bjorn Lomborg - agree that climate change is a serious problem with or without El Niño worsening.
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