I should have understood fully when Janice became ill with the flu three days ago, the odds were that I wouldn't luck out again like 2 years earlier when I dodged it. While I commiserated with her many groans and barely able to catch a breath from the hacking, wheezing cough, I still thought it'd miss me. How foolish!
Yesterday, midway through the Packers-Bucs game my throat and chest-lungs began to feel as if some maniac had rubbed them raw with sand paper. A few minutes later, I had to bolt into the nearest toilet unleashing a torrent that might have been the product of a CIA rectal re-hydration torture session. After barely making it to the end of the game I had to collapse in bed. Dehydrated and coughing in non-stop spasms that wracked my rib cage.
It's gotten progressively worse since and it appears I will have to take some recovery time - so no blog posts for a few days. (Right now I am still on the last dose of meds - Nyquil, Claritin and aspirin- I took at 3 a.m, - soon to wear off.)
The worst part is the difficulty breathing. An act we all take so much for granted, as simple as drawing a breath, exhaling, is now compromised by a microscopic virus. The problem - as info shows - is some of us are susceptible to a strain of Avian flu that seems to be among the renegades now running loose and which the CDC and vaccine makers didn't plan for.. (We had our shots 3 months ago, but since then we've learned the vaccine only covers 33% of the possible strains. We're still informed that the flu we do get will likely be "milder". If that's the case I wouldn't like to experience what I have without the shot!)
Anyway, as per the Avian component effects (not same as H7N9 Bird flu - which is far worse), what happens is that fluid fills your lungs and you almost feel like you're drowning. When you lie down and try to sleep all you hear is the wheezing of mucus deep inside the bronchi each time you exhale. Then, at some point the violent cough reaction is triggered by the tickling sensation deep in the lungs, and your head and chest feel as if they will explode from the pressure. Even taking large doses of cough medicine only help up to a point.
Then, this is interspersed with nausea and diarrhea and I was barely able to finish a bland breakfast this morning of baked potato and scrambled eggs.
So, my compadres, I hope to be writing more posts at the back end of this flu which I hope will be gone sooner rather than later.
As for Xmas dinner, it appears it is now likely to be hot dogs, baked potato and maybe a can of chicken noodle soup thrown in.
Take care and take precautions! In the meantime, enjoy the posts which are already put up - many of which haven't been read as much as some others, e.g. my refusal to do the ice bucket challenge (890 reads), and Meryl Davis' peculiar facial characteristics (7,900 reads and counting - go figure!)
See also:
http://www.cnn.com/2014/12/31/health/flu-epidemic/
and:
http://www.naturalnews.com/047890_flu_vaccines_CDC_apology_medical_fraud.html#
Showing posts with label H7N9 Bird flu. Show all posts
Showing posts with label H7N9 Bird flu. Show all posts
Monday, December 22, 2014
Monday, October 14, 2013
Could the Shutdown Make This The Worst Flu Season Ever?
Let's understand that the flu is no joke, and no sport. Getting it can means weeks of suffering and often wishing you were dead. That's about how I felt after getting the Hong Kong Flu in December, 1968 with the effects lasting for months. It's also close to how my wife felt after getting the H3N2 variety of flu last December. Nonetheless, we reason that it still makes sense to get flu shots - if only because they can at least lessen the effects, symptoms. So this year we got ours at our primary doc's office a week ago. It was the new '4 in 1' vaccine that is supposed to protect against 4 varieties.
We also make sure to get flu shots because the evidence now shows that getting the full bore flu can produce an inflammatory response that weakens already damaged blood vessels making the person more susceptible to a heart attack. So why take the chance?
It appears that we may have well acted wisely - especially this year- as government and CDC (Center for Disease Control) resources are hobbled and subverted by the Tea Party instigated government attempted hostage -taking and shutdown. How so? According to former CDC Director David Satcher, for any flu outbreak to occur while two-thirds of the staff of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is on furlough could be disastrous.
In an editorial for Bloomberg News, Satcher wrote, "there is a very real potential for unnecessary pain, suffering and death when the work of public-health officials is curtailed.”
This is serious, but we already know that given the priorities of effect arising from the ongoing shutdown, the welfare of ordinary Americans lies at the bottom of the list. Trumping it are ongoing development of military weapons systems (e.g. the F-35 bomber), which private defense contractors are not about to let go of come hell or high water. Thus, it's no surprise to see how Satcher has laid out just how the diminished capacity of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to monitor disease directly translates into reduced protection for the American people. These include:
- Weakened surveillance for detecting and responding to infectious diseases: Nine of the 10 Global Disease Detection Centers have significantly reduced monitoring for diseases such as Ebola and new pathogens such as Middle East respiratory syndrome (Corona virus) and H7N9, which could threaten the U.S.
- CDC doesn’t have the personnel to monitor, track and provide guidance about seasonal flu activity, even as the season is beginning. Tens of thousands die in the worst flu seasons, what will the death toll be like when little or no monitoring is available? What if the Corona virus strikes at the same time and inadequate personnel are available to make a differential diagnosis from serious influenza? What if the Bird flu strikes?
- Although state public-health investigators can detect disease outbreaks, the CDC’s ability to conduct cross-state collaboration and lab work for linking these outbreaks is critical (see e.g. the film 'Contagion) and hence capacity for state assistance is severely diminished.
- The CDC isn’t able to conduct routine inspections of high-security labs to ensure that they are taking appropriate precautions when handling deadly agents such as anthrax, smallpox, monkeypox and Ebola. Several incidents concerning lax security have already been reported. What if lack of adequate oversight permits one of the harbored 'beasties' to escape confinement?
- Staffing at the Emergency Operation Center is minimal. In the event of a natural or man-made disaster, the CDC will have difficulty in responding quickly and efficiently to any public-health challenge. Think of something like an F5 tornado striking Oklahoma or Missouri, or massive flooding in New Jersey from another super storm. Do we really want this?
True, the shutdown may not generate any massive additional illness or compounded catastrophe from lack of resources. But such an outcome may be based on pure dumb luck, not on rationally appropriated resources, personnel. As Dr. Satcher puts it:
"Surely we can agree that it is irresponsible to base our disease detection and response strategy on luck.”
Well, rational people may well agree, but this, alas, doesn't include the pro-Dixie Tea Bagger contingent - who have no use for a federal government, and would have their states secede if they could.
Monday, April 15, 2013
What Do You Do If A Bird Flu Pandemic is Coming? (2)
With the latest reports of the cases of human Avian flu increasing- and spreading- the interest in what Americans need to do is not purely academic or abstract. It entails genuine grave decisions on matters of life and death. Some further areas I want to cover in this blog post include: hygiene, cooking when electricity is either not available or only partially, and wills.
Hygiene:
There are two aspects here, external and internal - the first to do with interactions with the outside world in the grip of Avian H5 N1 flu, and the second pertaining to your household when one or more members becomes ill.
In the external realm, you will want to protect yourself by "social distancing" - avoiding gatherings of people, or even simple social occasions whether weddings, parties or whatever. This sounds harsh, but we know from data compiled during the Spanish flu pandemic that those who were most likely to survive minimized their contacts with the outside word and had few if any occasions to mingle. Mingling in any venue means chances increase for droplet or touch infection, even if you're wearing a flu mask - and you should wear one if you go out, even to shop for other needed odds and ends (e.g. battery chargers, Mag-lites etc.).
Also, it goes without saying that when you return home you wash hands rigorously, no 5 seconds and done. During the recent norovirus outbreak I even went one step further by using antiseptic wipes on the surfaces of any bottles, or cans purchased at the grocery which I intended for immediate use. This after learning that the norovirus can last up to 13 or more days on surfaces. As I already had a wife recovering from H3N2 flu, I didn't want her - or me (as the primary helper) to get norovirus on top of it.
Now, ridicule the films 'Contagion' and 'Fatal Contact- Bird Flu in America' as scare mongering if you will, but the fact is people are often way too 'touch happy' during even seasonal flu outbreaks and this is what brings perdition on them and their families. They touch each other, shake hands, hug in the grocery mart, then touch their noses, face etc. --- and as the CDC character notes in 'Contagion' - up to 3500 times an hour! In a time of Avian Flu, if you happen to go out and about, you want to minimize touching as much as feasible. Use readily disposable latex gloves if you must go out at the height of an epidemic or pandemic, and then the payment will not be as fierce if you touch door knobs, elevator buttons or other contaminated surfaces.
Those who think these precautions are over the top, I suggest you get hold of PBS' documentary on the Spanish flu and watch it, especially the scenes of the bloody vomit and sputum covering hospital beds and the lungs (at autopsy) turned into jello after the subjects shown were infected. This isn't a damned joke, not one bit.
The hygiene principles applied to external agents can be also applied to the household. How did I avoid getting H3N2 flu when my wife had it? A number of precautions, all based on reasonable separation and isolation, which would help in the event Avian Flu takes down any person in your household:
1- Keeping all utensils, dishes etc. separate – each person using his, her own.
2- The infected person covering every sneeze or cough to reduce the likelihood of droplet infection.
3- Washing hands after touching almost everything including laptop (that we sometimes share), phone, or even a door knob. As for phone, using wipes to scrub it down before making or taking a call.
4- No touching of the face if you can help it, including picking at nose, rubbing eyes, putting fingers into mouth etc. Be conscious of what you are doing with fingers, hands!
5- Sleeping in separate bedrooms -if this is feasible- especially as infected people will experience severe coughing bouts at night which they'll not be able control- hence droplets spread through the room.
The above are all in place once a household member gets ill
Cooking when Electricity is a problem:
Let's face it- eating canned foods for three months may not be everyone's cup of tea. For those who want some degree of diversity, you will need to get cooking gear that doesn't depend on electricity - and bear in mind the folks that operate your utility or power station can get sick too!
The methods most recommended in survival handbooks include:
- Two burner Coleman stove
- Small Weber Kettle grill (burns charcoal briquettes but can use other materials)
- Large Weber Propane grill that runs off a 20-lb propane tank.
My preferences go to the first two, since I kind of instinctively distrust propane tanks. But this is still a personal choice. A further note, since water is likely to be in short supply, it is useful to wrap any veggies or meats in aluminum foil before putting onto your heat source. This way you keep the surfaces of your grill or stove clean in a (likely) water -challenged situation and the last thing you want is salmonella with Avian flu going around! Just remember to stock plenty of aluminum foil along with your foods.
Making out a Will:
Incredibly, nearly 2 in 3 Americans have no Will. Though they may pout and whine about the "government" taking their hard earned money, this is where it all gets exposed as nonsense-- since without a will that's exactly what you're allowing to happen! No one likes to think about the inevitable (except maybe the crazed fundies in their salvation and 'Hell' phantasms) but think about it you must - especially when a flu pandemic is facing you. Among the myths that people buy into:
"Joint ownership of accounts, property etc. makes a will unecessary".
This is a common misconception. In fact, joint ownership alone often creates needless state or federal estate taxes and may result in gift taxes being due. It may also deny you complete control over your property while you're still living. Thus, joint ownership is a poor substitute for a will but can work well in conjunction with one.
"A Will is not needed for a small estate".
On the contrary, the smaller the assets or estate the more important it be settled quickly, since delays mean increased expenses cutting down the proceeds. In many cases, an estate is larger than the owner realizes, and it's often undervalued. Still have all those 1952 TOPPS baseball cards? Well, they are part of your estate and if in near mint condition, now worth over $55,000.
Can you prepare a will - last will and testament- on your own? Yes, but it's not a good idea. The reason is that many do-it-yourself wills are declared null and void by the courts. My wife and I got our original will done soon after our marriage (1975) by an attorney in Barbados, it took ten minutes and cost $100 Bds. We got our will revised about ten years ago, to take into account family-beneficiary changes etc. It was done by a local attorney for about $200 and took less than a half hour.
Given such an important piece of the typical American's financial puzzle, it is incredible that more haven't done it. With a possible Avian flu pandemic it is essential it be done, and now may be the time to do it so you can focus your energies on collecting supplies later. Just a bit of advice!
Hygiene:
There are two aspects here, external and internal - the first to do with interactions with the outside world in the grip of Avian H5 N1 flu, and the second pertaining to your household when one or more members becomes ill.
In the external realm, you will want to protect yourself by "social distancing" - avoiding gatherings of people, or even simple social occasions whether weddings, parties or whatever. This sounds harsh, but we know from data compiled during the Spanish flu pandemic that those who were most likely to survive minimized their contacts with the outside word and had few if any occasions to mingle. Mingling in any venue means chances increase for droplet or touch infection, even if you're wearing a flu mask - and you should wear one if you go out, even to shop for other needed odds and ends (e.g. battery chargers, Mag-lites etc.).
Also, it goes without saying that when you return home you wash hands rigorously, no 5 seconds and done. During the recent norovirus outbreak I even went one step further by using antiseptic wipes on the surfaces of any bottles, or cans purchased at the grocery which I intended for immediate use. This after learning that the norovirus can last up to 13 or more days on surfaces. As I already had a wife recovering from H3N2 flu, I didn't want her - or me (as the primary helper) to get norovirus on top of it.
Now, ridicule the films 'Contagion' and 'Fatal Contact- Bird Flu in America' as scare mongering if you will, but the fact is people are often way too 'touch happy' during even seasonal flu outbreaks and this is what brings perdition on them and their families. They touch each other, shake hands, hug in the grocery mart, then touch their noses, face etc. --- and as the CDC character notes in 'Contagion' - up to 3500 times an hour! In a time of Avian Flu, if you happen to go out and about, you want to minimize touching as much as feasible. Use readily disposable latex gloves if you must go out at the height of an epidemic or pandemic, and then the payment will not be as fierce if you touch door knobs, elevator buttons or other contaminated surfaces.
Those who think these precautions are over the top, I suggest you get hold of PBS' documentary on the Spanish flu and watch it, especially the scenes of the bloody vomit and sputum covering hospital beds and the lungs (at autopsy) turned into jello after the subjects shown were infected. This isn't a damned joke, not one bit.
The hygiene principles applied to external agents can be also applied to the household. How did I avoid getting H3N2 flu when my wife had it? A number of precautions, all based on reasonable separation and isolation, which would help in the event Avian Flu takes down any person in your household:
1- Keeping all utensils, dishes etc. separate – each person using his, her own.
2- The infected person covering every sneeze or cough to reduce the likelihood of droplet infection.
3- Washing hands after touching almost everything including laptop (that we sometimes share), phone, or even a door knob. As for phone, using wipes to scrub it down before making or taking a call.
4- No touching of the face if you can help it, including picking at nose, rubbing eyes, putting fingers into mouth etc. Be conscious of what you are doing with fingers, hands!
5- Sleeping in separate bedrooms -if this is feasible- especially as infected people will experience severe coughing bouts at night which they'll not be able control- hence droplets spread through the room.
The above are all in place once a household member gets ill
Cooking when Electricity is a problem:
Let's face it- eating canned foods for three months may not be everyone's cup of tea. For those who want some degree of diversity, you will need to get cooking gear that doesn't depend on electricity - and bear in mind the folks that operate your utility or power station can get sick too!
The methods most recommended in survival handbooks include:
- Two burner Coleman stove
- Small Weber Kettle grill (burns charcoal briquettes but can use other materials)
- Large Weber Propane grill that runs off a 20-lb propane tank.
My preferences go to the first two, since I kind of instinctively distrust propane tanks. But this is still a personal choice. A further note, since water is likely to be in short supply, it is useful to wrap any veggies or meats in aluminum foil before putting onto your heat source. This way you keep the surfaces of your grill or stove clean in a (likely) water -challenged situation and the last thing you want is salmonella with Avian flu going around! Just remember to stock plenty of aluminum foil along with your foods.
Making out a Will:
Incredibly, nearly 2 in 3 Americans have no Will. Though they may pout and whine about the "government" taking their hard earned money, this is where it all gets exposed as nonsense-- since without a will that's exactly what you're allowing to happen! No one likes to think about the inevitable (except maybe the crazed fundies in their salvation and 'Hell' phantasms) but think about it you must - especially when a flu pandemic is facing you. Among the myths that people buy into:
"Joint ownership of accounts, property etc. makes a will unecessary".
This is a common misconception. In fact, joint ownership alone often creates needless state or federal estate taxes and may result in gift taxes being due. It may also deny you complete control over your property while you're still living. Thus, joint ownership is a poor substitute for a will but can work well in conjunction with one.
"A Will is not needed for a small estate".
On the contrary, the smaller the assets or estate the more important it be settled quickly, since delays mean increased expenses cutting down the proceeds. In many cases, an estate is larger than the owner realizes, and it's often undervalued. Still have all those 1952 TOPPS baseball cards? Well, they are part of your estate and if in near mint condition, now worth over $55,000.
Can you prepare a will - last will and testament- on your own? Yes, but it's not a good idea. The reason is that many do-it-yourself wills are declared null and void by the courts. My wife and I got our original will done soon after our marriage (1975) by an attorney in Barbados, it took ten minutes and cost $100 Bds. We got our will revised about ten years ago, to take into account family-beneficiary changes etc. It was done by a local attorney for about $200 and took less than a half hour.
Given such an important piece of the typical American's financial puzzle, it is incredible that more haven't done it. With a possible Avian flu pandemic it is essential it be done, and now may be the time to do it so you can focus your energies on collecting supplies later. Just a bit of advice!
Sunday, April 14, 2013
What IF the Bird Flu Pandemic Is Coming: What Do You DO? (1)
The ABC news report last night that a 7-year old Chinese girl has contracted Avian flu in Beijing, nearly 750 miles from Shanghai – the source of the outbreak- ought to send chills down the spine of every sentient being. Though we don’t know exactly how she contracted the disease, whether from a distant wild bird or human – this we do know- this virus is evolving even as I write.
If we soon learn the virus has fully mutated to the highly pathological H5N1 form, and a global pandemic may be imminent what do you do? Of course, the first reaction (dumb!) of many will be denial: ‘It’s just a flu for cripes’ sakes!’, or ‘Look, the government is hyping it to try and get us under control!’ or: ‘I ain’t doin’ nuthin’ until I actually see people in my neighborhood getting’ sick!’
Devoid of any knowledge of the Spanish Flu Pandemic – which killed over 50 million over 1918-19- it is probably human nature to treat any flu outbreak as ‘no biggie’ but that could be a fatal error. I saw what my wife endured, with H3N2 flu and it was perhaps only one or two more days (unless she recovered) before I’d have had to rush her to an ER.
In the case of Avian H5N1 Flu, you'll not likely have weeks to endure and recover, but maybe a day or two. In that time you or a loved one will know if you or your loved one(s) will live or die. And bear in mind here, hospitals will be overrun and switchboards clogged, so there will be little they can do once hordes of Avian-flu infected people begin pouring in. This is also why a Will is essential for any Avian flu planning as well and I will go into that in the next blog.
What do you do when no one is yet ill but the Avian flu is rapidly spreading? First, note a huge difference between the H3N2 outbreak last year and a future Avian flu is that in the former one could still make multiple runs to the supermarket, and supplies didn’t run out. There were only limited numbers of the severely ill, perhaps 10,000 in a given community. This will not be so if Avian flu strikes the U.S. and millions of severe cases emerge within very short time spans. (Refer to the highly pathological effects, symptoms listed in the previous blog post)
Then, multiple runs will be made on every major supermarket, corner grocery and even 7-11s as the outbreak takes down hundreds of thousands in the first week. So you can almost bet that will mean scarcity of grocery supplies within days. Don't be in the position of trying to build up your supplies, food stores when everyone else is, unless you don't mind getting stuck with Kibbles 'n Bits, lima beans and lemons. The cautious move then is to begin (gradually) stockpiling food, water, etc. as soon as the CDC confirms human- to- human transmission of the H5N1 flu. Even if this is in Asia! So yes, that means you set to work BEFORE the first case is confirmed in the U.S. Bear in mind here that this thing can and will be transmitted at the speed of modern jet flight - so after you hear the human-human transmission is verified in China, it may only be a day - perhaps 2 or 3 at most, before the first U.S. case shows up. When that announcement is made by the health authorities, look for all hell to break loose!
The Y2K scare, though bogus, did provide an insight into how much food to cache. You are basically looking at a minimum of perhaps 3 months in isolation (with little or no gov't help) and possibly local quarantines, once the flu strikes. Obviously, with runs on supermarkets the rule, there’ s little room for mathematical error. You begin by stocking as many diverse canned goods as possible: tuna, salmon, Spam, pineapple, chicken, beans, corn, spinach, whatever your family can go with and over a fairly long time. (In the next blog I will discuss cooking options, even if there’s no electric.)
How much to stockpile? That begins with the size of your household. Let’s say there are three people: 2 parents and one child. You will likely need (daily) the equivalent of 2 gallons of fresh water, and eight cans of tuna (or 4 cans tuna, 4 cans Spam) and three cans of corn (or three cans of beans, or pineapples). The sheer volume of stocked food is also another reason why it’s ridiculous to try and grab everything needed once the flu lands in your area. By then, you’ll only be able to get the dregs! So, what you’re likely looking at is a 2-3 week time interval to try to collect all the canned goods, water you estimate you will need.
Btw, that implies having a manual can opener – since electricity can’t be assumed to remain unaffected!
Re: water, remember to fill any bathtubs as well, since if the water ceases to be available (remember it depends on pumping which depends on electricity) you will still be able to flush the toilet. Use the available water filled in bathtubs and in any other containers you can find to flush toilets. Save the purchased bottled water for drinking. Since this flu brings on a “cytokine storm” as an over reaction of many human immune systems (see prior blog) and is liable to cause severe diarrhea and vomiting, you will definitely want to have enough to flush toilets!
Other items you will need to buy and store before the U.S. outbreak:
1- Functioning cellular phone with well-charged battery (rapid re-chargers should also be kept in reserve)
2- Obtain one or more dependable self-winding watches so you don't have to use batteries, or chargers to get the time.
3- Flashlights (e.g. Mag-lite) , and also keyring-sized LED lights such as those from Photon-Microlight,which can be worn on a ring.
4- A small AM/FM radio - to receive emergency broadcasts - and note there are several compact, magneto-driven wind up models (Eton Emergency radio) available for most uses. Battery -operated models are also ok, provided you have on hand extra long life batteries.
5- A good First Aid kit, which contains adhesive bandages, antiseptic wipes, burn cream and other supplies. It's also a good idea to have plenty of boxes of spare antiseptic wipes on hand to wipe down surfaces if one or more in your household becomes ill.
6- Disposable dust masks to filter out air pollutants (e.g. from mass- disposal pyres) if you need to go outside. Also be sure to have a good supply of face masks, or "flu masks" - see e.g. .
http://www.webmd.com/cold-and-flu/features/swine-flu-h1n1-and-face-masks especially in the early phases of the U.S. Avian incursion.
7- Cash. Always have enough cash available, for example if food stores run out - or other critical stores (batteries) - and you may have only scalpers to buy from. One Survival Handbook recommends having on hand at least ten $100 bills, and at least twenty smaller denomination ($20) especially since if the electricity supply is interrupted there won't be any working ATMs.
More in Part 2 (Including hygiene, cooking without electricity and Will preparation)
If we soon learn the virus has fully mutated to the highly pathological H5N1 form, and a global pandemic may be imminent what do you do? Of course, the first reaction (dumb!) of many will be denial: ‘It’s just a flu for cripes’ sakes!’, or ‘Look, the government is hyping it to try and get us under control!’ or: ‘I ain’t doin’ nuthin’ until I actually see people in my neighborhood getting’ sick!’
Devoid of any knowledge of the Spanish Flu Pandemic – which killed over 50 million over 1918-19- it is probably human nature to treat any flu outbreak as ‘no biggie’ but that could be a fatal error. I saw what my wife endured, with H3N2 flu and it was perhaps only one or two more days (unless she recovered) before I’d have had to rush her to an ER.
In the case of Avian H5N1 Flu, you'll not likely have weeks to endure and recover, but maybe a day or two. In that time you or a loved one will know if you or your loved one(s) will live or die. And bear in mind here, hospitals will be overrun and switchboards clogged, so there will be little they can do once hordes of Avian-flu infected people begin pouring in. This is also why a Will is essential for any Avian flu planning as well and I will go into that in the next blog.
What do you do when no one is yet ill but the Avian flu is rapidly spreading? First, note a huge difference between the H3N2 outbreak last year and a future Avian flu is that in the former one could still make multiple runs to the supermarket, and supplies didn’t run out. There were only limited numbers of the severely ill, perhaps 10,000 in a given community. This will not be so if Avian flu strikes the U.S. and millions of severe cases emerge within very short time spans. (Refer to the highly pathological effects, symptoms listed in the previous blog post)
Then, multiple runs will be made on every major supermarket, corner grocery and even 7-11s as the outbreak takes down hundreds of thousands in the first week. So you can almost bet that will mean scarcity of grocery supplies within days. Don't be in the position of trying to build up your supplies, food stores when everyone else is, unless you don't mind getting stuck with Kibbles 'n Bits, lima beans and lemons. The cautious move then is to begin (gradually) stockpiling food, water, etc. as soon as the CDC confirms human- to- human transmission of the H5N1 flu. Even if this is in Asia! So yes, that means you set to work BEFORE the first case is confirmed in the U.S. Bear in mind here that this thing can and will be transmitted at the speed of modern jet flight - so after you hear the human-human transmission is verified in China, it may only be a day - perhaps 2 or 3 at most, before the first U.S. case shows up. When that announcement is made by the health authorities, look for all hell to break loose!
The Y2K scare, though bogus, did provide an insight into how much food to cache. You are basically looking at a minimum of perhaps 3 months in isolation (with little or no gov't help) and possibly local quarantines, once the flu strikes. Obviously, with runs on supermarkets the rule, there’ s little room for mathematical error. You begin by stocking as many diverse canned goods as possible: tuna, salmon, Spam, pineapple, chicken, beans, corn, spinach, whatever your family can go with and over a fairly long time. (In the next blog I will discuss cooking options, even if there’s no electric.)
How much to stockpile? That begins with the size of your household. Let’s say there are three people: 2 parents and one child. You will likely need (daily) the equivalent of 2 gallons of fresh water, and eight cans of tuna (or 4 cans tuna, 4 cans Spam) and three cans of corn (or three cans of beans, or pineapples). The sheer volume of stocked food is also another reason why it’s ridiculous to try and grab everything needed once the flu lands in your area. By then, you’ll only be able to get the dregs! So, what you’re likely looking at is a 2-3 week time interval to try to collect all the canned goods, water you estimate you will need.
Btw, that implies having a manual can opener – since electricity can’t be assumed to remain unaffected!
Re: water, remember to fill any bathtubs as well, since if the water ceases to be available (remember it depends on pumping which depends on electricity) you will still be able to flush the toilet. Use the available water filled in bathtubs and in any other containers you can find to flush toilets. Save the purchased bottled water for drinking. Since this flu brings on a “cytokine storm” as an over reaction of many human immune systems (see prior blog) and is liable to cause severe diarrhea and vomiting, you will definitely want to have enough to flush toilets!
Other items you will need to buy and store before the U.S. outbreak:
1- Functioning cellular phone with well-charged battery (rapid re-chargers should also be kept in reserve)
2- Obtain one or more dependable self-winding watches so you don't have to use batteries, or chargers to get the time.
3- Flashlights (e.g. Mag-lite) , and also keyring-sized LED lights such as those from Photon-Microlight,which can be worn on a ring.
4- A small AM/FM radio - to receive emergency broadcasts - and note there are several compact, magneto-driven wind up models (Eton Emergency radio) available for most uses. Battery -operated models are also ok, provided you have on hand extra long life batteries.
5- A good First Aid kit, which contains adhesive bandages, antiseptic wipes, burn cream and other supplies. It's also a good idea to have plenty of boxes of spare antiseptic wipes on hand to wipe down surfaces if one or more in your household becomes ill.
6- Disposable dust masks to filter out air pollutants (e.g. from mass- disposal pyres) if you need to go outside. Also be sure to have a good supply of face masks, or "flu masks" - see e.g. .
http://www.webmd.com/cold-and-flu/features/swine-flu-h1n1-and-face-masks especially in the early phases of the U.S. Avian incursion.
7- Cash. Always have enough cash available, for example if food stores run out - or other critical stores (batteries) - and you may have only scalpers to buy from. One Survival Handbook recommends having on hand at least ten $100 bills, and at least twenty smaller denomination ($20) especially since if the electricity supply is interrupted there won't be any working ATMs.
More in Part 2 (Including hygiene, cooking without electricity and Will preparation)
Saturday, April 13, 2013
Evidence Found Bird Flu Is Evolving: Will There Be A Pandemic Within 6 Months?
Electron micrograph of H5N1 influenza virus particles.
The report appearing in yesterday's Milwaukee Journal -Sentinel was brief but had the impact of a blow to the solar plexus. Word, for word, it reported:
"Genetic analysis of the H5 N1 avian flu virus responsible for at least nine human deaths in China portrays a virus evolving to adapt to human cells, raising concern about its potential to spark a new global flu pandemic.
The collaborative study, conducted by a group led by Masato Tashiro of the Influenza Virus Research Center, National Institute of Infectious Diseases, and Yoshihiro Kawaoka of the University of Wisconsin-Madison and the University of Tokyo, appears in the current edition of the journal Eurosurveillance. The group examined the genetic sequences of H7N9 isolates from four of the pathogen's human victims as well as samples derived from birds and the environs of a Shanghai market.
"The human isolates, but not the avian and environmental ones, have a protein mutation that allows for efficient growth in human cells and that also allows them to grow at a temperature that corresponds to the upper respiratory tract of humans, which is lower than you find in birds," Kawaoka, a leading expert on avian influenza, said in a news release from UW-Madison.
The findings, drawn from genetic sequences deposited by Chinese researchers into an international database, provide some of the first molecular clues about a worrisome new strain of bird flu, the first human cases of which were reported on March 31 by the Chinese Center
The preceding ought to be enough to get any normal human's nerves on edge. Also, if unleashed in an outbreak against an essentially 'naked" (from immunity) populace, the results would be devastating. In 2003, world-renowned virologist Robert G. Webster published an article titled: "The world is teetering on the edge of a pandemic that could kill a large fraction of the human population" in American Scientist. He called for adequate resources to fight what he sees as a major world threat to possibly billions of lives.
On September 29, 2005, David Nabarro, the newly appointed Senior United Nations System Coordinator for Avian and Human Influenza, warned the world that an outbreak of avian influenza could kill anywhere between 5 million and 150 million people. The reported mortality rate of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza in a human is high; WHO data indicate 60% of cases classified as H5N1 resulted in death.
My take, given the H5N1 would (from cases analyzed thus far) incept a "cytokine storm" - similar to what the H1N1 Spanish Flu did, is that at least 500 million would perish, and possibly as many as 1 billion. I believe the reason the CDC is now barely a step from emergency mode (their website info now is partially 'redded out' with reference to old info and the emphasis is now on 'real time information) is because they are fully aware of the fact the Avian flu in its H5N1 human-to human manifestation could wipe out up to one seventh of the global populace.
Richard Besser, former CDC doc and now medical correspondent with ABC News, sounded downright nervous in his report last night from China, talking about a "race against the clock".
Back to the phenomenon of the cytokine storm: Research on genetically restored Spanish flu discloses that death likely arrived via a cytokine storm. In the current Avian flu cases, one boy documented with H5N1 experienced diarrhea followed rapidly by a coma without developing respiratory or flu-like symptom. This shows that one can perish that suddenly, and with no evident breathing problems. There have been studies of the levels of cytokines in humans infected by the H5N1 flu virus. Of particular concern is elevated levels of tumor necrosis factor-alpha, a protein associated with tissue destruction at sites of infection and increased production of other cytokines. Flu virus-induced increases in the level of cytokines is also associated with flu symptoms, including fever, chills, vomiting and headache.
The inflammatory cascade triggered by H5N1 has been called a 'cytokine storm' by some, because of what seems to be a positive feedback process of damage to the body resulting from immune system stimulation. H5N1 induces higher levels of cytokines than the more common flu virus types
The latest CDC Notice is given as follows:
The highly pathogenic avian influenza A (H5N1) epizootic (animal outbreak) in Asia, Europe, the Near East, and Africa is not expected to diminish significantly in the short term. It is likely that H5N1 virus infections among domestic poultry have become endemic in certain areas and that sporadic human infections resulting from direct contact with infected poultry and/or wild birds will continue to occur. So far, the spread of H5N1 virus from person-to-person has been very rare, limited and unsustained. However, this epizootic continues to pose an important public health threat.
There is little pre-existing natural immunity to H5N1 virus infection in the human population. If H5N1 viruses gain the ability for efficient and sustained transmission among humans, an influenza pandemic could result, with potentially high rates of illness and death worldwide. No evidence for genetic reassortment between human and avian influenza A virus genes has been found to date, and there is no evidence of any significant changes to circulating H5N1 virus strains to suggest greater transmissibility to or among humans.
Genetic sequencing of avian influenza A (H5N1) viruses from human cases in Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia shows resistance to the antiviral medications amantadine and rimantadine, two of the medications commonly used for treatment of influenza. This leaves two remaining antiviral medications (oseltamivir and zanamivir) that should still be effective against currently circulating strains of H5N1 viruses. A small number of oseltamivir resistant H5N1 virus infections of humans have been reported. Efforts to produce pre-pandemic vaccine candidates for humans that would be effective against avian influenza A (H5N1) viruses are ongoing. However, no H5N1 vaccines are currently available for human use.
Research suggests that currently circulating strains of H5N1 viruses are becoming more capable of causing disease (pathogenic) in animals than were earlier H5N1 viruses. One study found that ducks infected with H5N1 virus are now shedding more virus for longer periods without showing symptoms of illness. This finding has implications for the role of ducks in transmitting disease to other birds and possibly to humans as well. Additionally, other findings have documented H5N1 virus infection among pigs in China and Vietnam; H5N1 virus infection of cats (experimental infection of housecats in the Netherlands, isolation of H5N1 virus from domestic cats in Germany and Thailand, and detection of H5N1 viral RNA in domestic cats in Iraq and Austria); H5N1 virus infection of dogs (isolation of H5N1 virus from a domestic dog in Thailand); and isolation of H5N1 viruses from tigers and leopards at zoos in Thailand). In addition, H5N1 virus infection in a wild stone marten (a weasel-like mammal) was reported in Germany and in a wild civet cat in Vietnam Asia in 2003 continue to evolve and may adapt so that other mammals may be susceptible to it as well.
Highly pathogenic H5N1 in people can include:
Symptoms:
• Fever and cough
• Acute respiratory distress
• Shortness of breath/difficulty breathing
• Abdominal pain
• Diarrhea
Complications:
• Pneumonia
• Respiratory failure
• Shock
* Altered mental state
• Seizures
• Failure of multiple organs (e.g. kidney failure)
• Death
The other bit of news (from flu.gov) is that
People need to also grasp that even if an initial vaccine is successful, such virulent influenza outbreaks often come in waves. In the case of the Spanish flu there was a first relatively mild wave, then a much more deadly form (that incepted more cytokine storms). The flu virus also mutates so that a vaccine that may work for the initial H5N1 onslaught may not work for a later one. For a fairly good depiction of what could transpire, see the movie: 'Fatal Contact: Bird Flu in America'. We are talking of so many dead that corpses have to be collected daily in the streets by garbage trucks, driven to landfills, stacked like cordwood and buried or set afire. We're also talking of massive dislocation of supply lines, supermarket shelves bare, and even the possibility of water, electricity output affected. As for hospitals....the floods of patients in every city and town will overwhelm them and their resources within days!
Having seen what my own wife suffered - barely able to breathe at times- with the H3N2 flu last December (written about in my Dec. 25 blog post) I don't want to see anything any worse! We may need to pare down the world's burgeoning populace- but not this way!
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