Showing posts with label Anthony Fauci. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Anthony Fauci. Show all posts

Thursday, July 30, 2020

The Fed Warns Of Economic Calamity If People Don't Change Behaviors - And Dotard Retweets Idiot Quacks

Brane Space: Demonic Disease: How Belief in the Satanic turns humans into  Satanic beings
"I know it's true, what that Stella Immanuel said about demons! And I'm gonna retweet it! And yeah, I am a very stable genius!"

"I was probably the healthiest person you ever met. No pre-existing conditions, ski seventy to one hundred days a year.  But I got Covid, had sepsis, had MRSA, had a collapsed lung, and on a ventilator for thirty -one days. Hospitalized for sixty. Loss of blood pressure caused me to lose several fingers. I was on my death bed. This thing is for real, This virus is no joke,"      Greg Garfield,, Covid survivor, this morning on CBS

"It's so fundamental we can't say it enough. Until the virus is contained  the labor market won't be able to fully recover, leaving people in need of support. The path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the virus."  - Fed Chair Jay Powell, WSJ, 'Business & Investing', p. B12. today.

As we learned this morning that the GDP shrank by 32.9 percent in the previous quarter (see WaPo link at bottom), we are now on notice that we had best change behaviors - or NO  part of the economy is coming back.  The news backed up  Federal Reserve  notices and interviews (over the past 4 weeks)  that if Americans don't collectively get on board in dealing with the virus, we are all for the economic high jump ('Fed's Outlook Grows Gloomier', WSJ, July 28, p. A2).    As noted therein:

"Officials have warned this month in speeches and interviews that the economy faces a deeper downturn and more difficult recovery if the country doesn't take more effective action to slow the spread of infection."

Boston  Fed President Eric Rosengren was even more blunt in his assessment:(ibid.):

"This economy will face severe economic consequences if the public health response doesn't improve."

Adding:

"The Fed's policy response is not going to be able to offset all the losses if we continue to make serious public health mistakes."

This was endorsed by Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan:

"How well we follow the health care protocols from here is going to be the primary economic tool we have.left."

In other words, the Fed is out of miracle moves to rescue the economy, and this is the crux of the problem - as so eloquently stated by Jay Powell (see top quote). . It's now up to U.S. citizens to get their act together and work together to alter the course of the virus in the U.S.  This instead of engaging in endless mask wars and other self defeating idiocy while buying into fake notions of personal liberty.  We have to understand in this moment of peril our personal freedom has to be sacrificed for the greater communal good.  If we don't grasp that, if we don't act accordingly, you could as well write our epitaph - and not just for the economy.  In addition, the economic disaster coming will almost surely be compounded if a new huge Covid benefits package  (HEROES ACT) isn't passed, and I mean by TODAY!  If that $600/week unemployment extra benefit isn't in the package you can pretty well kiss the GDP and economy goodbye.  GDP depends on spending, and little or none will be done without the enhanced unemployment benefit.  As  financial contributor Jill Schlesinger said on CBS this morning:

"That extra $600 a week was spent in the economy. So without a new package I think we are going to see the economy flatten out." 

Alas, any change in behaviors for the 1 in 4 Americans who think it's all a "plandemic" or "hoax" may be a long way off.  This is given we have a  leader who is totally incompetent in his response to the pandemic, and done everything -including sidelining top medical experts - to ensure the death toll hits hundreds of thousands by November.  Worse, he has now started pandering to a classic crackpot and spreading her idiocy with his retweets.

Maybe Trump  sings the praises of Stella Immanuel -  a Houston pediatrician and demon believer -

because he senses her IQ is as low as his.   Immanuel, leader of Fire Power Ministries,  believes endometriosis and other potentially dangerous gynecological conditions are the residue of sexual intercourse with demons.  Incredibly,  this quack based at  the Rehoboth Medical Center in Houston, also has claimed "alien DNA"  has been used in medical treatments.  (I do hope in none of my prostate cancer treatments, including cryo-freezing of cancer cells back in 2017.  Were these replaced by 'alien DNA'?  Inquiring minds want to know!)

This crackpot quack Immanuel also teaches that demons, known as “spirit husbands” and “spirit wives”, once walked the Earth in physical form. After they drowned in Noah’s flood, however, they carried on only in non-corporeal form. They visit humans in sexy dreams, which aren’t dreams after all but spirit spouses making a booty call. This is almost as cracked as one "minister" (Contessa Adams) once claiming incubi and succubi inhabited sex toys and could possess the humans using them, see e.g.
By contrast, Immanuel's  demons are responsible not only for diseases of the female reproductive system but also for male impotence, most financial troubles, marital discord and spiritual malaise.

No, folks, you cannot make this bullshit up.  But this is the sort of irredeemable crappola our  great leader wastes his time tweeting and retweeting.  As well as watching on the tube.  Don't believe it?  You can find Immanuel on Trump’s Twitter feed, where she testifies to the power of hydroxychloroquine - the magic snake oil Dotard and his ass clowns have been humping for months now.   Sadly, millions of Americans heard or saw her advice, thanks in part to the Dotard's amplifying effect,  this before Facebook took down her page and the video (after 20 million views).

Earlier Twitter took down the offending video because (WSJ, July 29, p. A6):

 "It violated its Covid 19 misinformation policy which prohibits misleading claims asserted as fact to influence others' behavior."

In the wake of that a Trump spokesman fulminated (ibid.):

"It is beyond the pale for Twitter to silence the views of medical professionals who happen to dissent from the establishment's anti-hydroxychloroquine  narrative."

But those weren't "medical professionals" but a gaggle of medical quacks and associated hare-brained imbeciles, like Stella Immanuel.  As for the anti-hydroxychloroquine narrative, that is pure bollocks.  The malaria drug has already caused a number of deaths from inappropriate use and the FDA rightly revoked its emergency use authorization.

The most gratuitously odious event from Tuesday's show news conference? Trump asserting Dr. Anthony Fauci "had misled the public"  and also "Fauci and the Democrats perpetuated Covid deaths to hurt Trump."

Fauci fired back squashing the Trump claim.  As far as hurting Trump, the only one who's done that is the Dotard himself, because of his colossally incompetent response to the pandemic.  Tweeting his numskull conspiracy ideations and watching Trump TV when he ought to have been doing all he could to protect American lives.

The Reeptards, including two Colorado idiots now filing a lawsuit  in Fort Collins, to claim masks are "unconstitutional"  and are "political speech" - ought to be forced to see an image of an intubated Herman Cain - before he croaked from Covid.


 Cain, recall, posted a photo of himself at the Trump Tulsa rally, hamming it up with other unmasked goobers.
Cain sits among a group of fellow maskless Trump supporters who hold up "Black Voices for Trump" signs.

A pity this lot didn't see Greg Ip's WSJ piece today (p. A2) noting the death rate from Covid 19 is "5 to 40 times deadlier than seasonal flu."

Not that it would have made much difference.  It seldom does to those on the lower end of the IQ (Bell) curve.

See also:

Economy shrinks at fastest quarterly rate on record


And:
by Robert Becker | August 3, 2020 - 6:19am | permalink
And:

Friday, July 3, 2020

Profile Of Another Covid Quack: Joseph A. Ladipo (Still Peddling Baloney Amidst The Worst National Response To Pandemic)

Joseph-Ladapo Photo
Dr. Joseph R. Ladipo  - his Covid quackery continues to reach the WSJ op-ed pages.
And (right) Covid mutant he chooses to ignore.


"The crisis we now find ourselves in is a human tragedy, an economic calamity  but it is also a singular national humiliation.  We're living in a moment when the U.S. is a laughingstock or a subject of pity around the world.  Look at the chart of nations and all who've gotten their cases down, some at or near zero. Then look at the graph going straight up. That is us, our cases are skyrocketing.  We are living in this tragedy, this national humiliation for all to see. We keep setting new records each day, five times in the last eight days and yesterday another record." - Chris Hayes, last night on 'All In


"While we have been continually screwing up, we have learned something. We have learned that masks work!  Pretty well, to slow the spread of this thing.  If you wear a covering that covers your mouth and your nose that is going to make you less likely to infect other people, especially if you have coronavirus but you don't know you have it."  -  Rachel Maddow last night.

"Right now we are heading at a million miles per hour in the wrong direction.   It's absolutely the saddest thing, the most unnecessary situation we're finding ourselves in. And it's  behaviorally driven."- Dr. Aileen Marty, infectious disease expert who helped Miami-Dade County write its reopening rules (This morning on CBS)

"It's actually possible that we could become the next New York City. I can't believe we're now staring down the barrel of that gun." - Roberta Schwartz, President of Houston Methodist Hospital, quoted in The Houston Chronicle yesterday.

The trouble with medical quacks is that their words can be taken very seriously if published in venues regarded as having some degree of gravitas.   Never mind this may only be on the notoriously ideological Op-ed pages of The Wall Street Journal ("the print version of FOX" according to Janice), and despite those pages not having the veneer of respected journalism of the the rest of the paper.  Just the source name "Wall Street Journal" can lend credibility where none is really warranted.    This is the case with the continued bunkum about the pandemic and the U.S. response to it  (now  seeing a record 54, 915 reported cases yesterday)  churned out by the likes of Joseph R. Ladipo, a  Covid quack based at UCLA, for Pete's sake.  In his latest WSJ op-ed he started off by writing: (July 2, p. A17, 'The Coronavirus Credibility Gap'):


"The American public is fractured over policy responses to Covid-19. That rift is most visible in debates about masks and new rounds of shutdowns. Such disputes are common in a country as diverse and opinionated as America. "


Let's first register that the American public is "fractured" because of a lack of nationally coordinated response.  As journalist Laurie Garrett put it last night, it as if the U.S. is acting as 50 different nations in its response, as opposed to one unified country.   That, and the lack of national mandates has caused this virus to now spread like an uncontrolled wildfire, and yet Ladipo writes in his op-ed as if we still need to give different people "choices" in their behavior. ("The preferences and circumstances of individuals vary".)    Ladipo even has the nerve to insist "alternative to masks" exist and "include physical distancing"  - unaware or ignorant of the fact the two mitigations are not mutually exclusive.  They are intended to be used in tandem.  

Giving people "choices" and "mask alternatives"?  No, we do not, if we wish to get this virus under control and not have the economy suffer irreparable damage, even as medical workers burn out and hospitals crater.   Ladipo, who often resorts to false analogy, invokes the need for "empathy" - as with HIV patients, drug users or cig smokers-  which examples do permit a kind of luxury of time for response.  But having played the fool for three months we no longer have that luxury of paced, measured and "empathetic,   even "tolerant"  response - say to maskless scofflaws- 0r idiot college kids who think Covid is a parlor game.  No, it's time to bring the hammer down, like Barbados did, fining lockdown and curfew violators $10,000 each and 90 days in the can.  When your whole home is on fire you do not use a fire extinguisher, you call the Fire Dept.

Ladipo writes that "such disputes are common in a country as diverse and opinionated as America" - and yet the case stats now disclose the only nation showing as shameful a response is Brazil - also led by a narcissist autocrat.  All other nations are seeing their numbers dive lower, even as the EU now prohibits Americans from traveling there for fear of spreading the virus. And why not given we've done nothing to show a serious behavioral response?  

Contrast that with last night's scenes (on 'All In') showing people in places like Prague in the Czech Republic celebrating in outdoor cafes, New Zealanders playing rugby, high school students in Denmark out celebrating the end of school (and not virtual school), bars in Ireland back open, along with movie theaters, museums and other venues.  In Japan, the malls of  Tokyo are open and the streets as crowded as they've ever been. Just like New York City once was, the only difference being everyone wearing masks in the rest of the sane world.  So they can afford to celebrate a genuine reopen, while we pursued a premature fraudulent one that the likes of Ladipo had also supported.

Ladipo appears to have a particular "bee in his bonnet" about mandating that people wear masks.  Why?  Given that is precisely the item that's permitted the normal world to reopen while we grovel like fools in false rebellion, based on a fictitious concept of liberty. I have no idea also why Ladipo invokes this nonsense given even he must know there can be no genuine liberty without responsibility. Besides,  citizens of other nations display no similar reservations, nor are they any less aware of personal freedom. They just happen to possess a lot more insight into the nature of the virus and hence have more common sense.    Here's a news item out of FORBES that Ladapo and his fellow anti-mandate quacks ought to digest:

"Goldman’s analysts found that wearing face coverings has a significant impact on coronavirus outcomes, and they suggest that a federal mask mandate would “meaningfully” increase mask usage across the country, especially in states like Florida and Texas, where masks are not currently required. 

The researchers estimate that a national mandate would increase the portion of people wearing masks by 15 percentage points, and cut the daily growth of new cases by 1.0 percentage point to 0.6%. 

Reducing the spread of the virus through mask-wearing, the analysts found, could be a substitute for strict lockdown measures that would otherwise shave 5%—or $1 trillion—off the U.S. GDP. "

Here's a number check of how we are now faced with a five alarm fire and why a national mandate is essential - no exceptions (if you have "trouble breathing" you stay home!) if we are to dig ourselves out of the debacle we're in:  With a combined population of 2.6 billion, China, Japan, Korea, Thailand, Vietnam, Australia and the EU are averaging 6,760 new cases. By comparison, Florida with 21 million people, counted 10,100 cases yesterday - or more than 3,300 the tally of the combined nations cited. 

 Does Ladipo know enough math to reckon this stat into his consciousness?  That is without making specious attacks using strawmen on medical experts' credibility?  (Such as belaboring that experts  such as Dr. Fauci held an  original position that no masks were needed. But that was back in February when much less was known about the virus and which behaviors carry the most viral loads.)

Here's another non-trick question: How does Ladipo now account for Texas Governor Greg Abbott ordering a statewide mandate for masks?  Here was a guy who originally didn't believe they were necessary but has since (as Houston ICUs are overwhelmed) had a 'come to Jesus' moment.  As Chris Hayes' put it last night "The country is in flames, and we cannot just douse each ember as it appears like other nations. That is not us. We are way past the ember stage. The country is on fire. It is in flames. And the rest of the world is looking on in horror."

And yet Ladipo proposes we get a metaphorical squirt gun to combat this raging fire, rather than go all  out.   Most aggravating is when this quack writes that:

"if political leaders and health experts want to restore their credibility and the public's confidence they need to admit that politics rather than science influenced important public health decisions."  

But he's mixing apples and oranges here, in this case the scientists who use science with the politicos (like Trump et al) who don't.   Thereby, via such conflation,  it escapes him the latter are responsible for using politics to drive their decisions - the classic case being Trump for whom his re-election is the only barometer, and which is why now he tries to ignore the virus' ravages -  hoping it will "disappear" by November..

The other key point, less noted in much of our media, is the importance of a centralized, national health system.  As Laurie Garrett explained last night on 'All In':

"Every single European country has a national health system. That means they have centralized data, centralized purchasing, and centralized policy. So that a given response happens for the whole country, not piecemeal. Here, we have a completely fragmented response.  I mean just today Rep. Andy Biggs in Arizona called on to shut down the coronavirus task force and get rid of Tony Fauci and Deborah Birks.  Meanwhile, Andrew Cuomo says we're not allowing these people from this list of states to enter without quarantine. So we're acting more like 50 different nations than like a single national response."

And of course, mandating masks be worn would be a key part of any nationally coordinated response.   As Hayes replied to her: "The only Moonshot I can think of to save us is a 100 percent mask adoption.   If everyone masks up and gets on the same page."  But as Garrett noted, the decision to wear or not wear a mask is being tainted by politicized memes, so if you wear one you are an "elitist"  and stand for lockdowns.  If you don't, you're for "freedom" and the economy opening.  She then referred to the Goldman Sachs report cited earlier to show this is a misdirection by those who ought to know better.  As Dr John Lapook put it on CBS this morning:

 "For this weekend I'm telling everybody to stay home. You know our country has done things a lot harder than this.  Compared to what our parents had to go through in World War Two wearing a mask and social distancing are nothing.  It's a walk in the park compared to the rationing  and curfews then."  

 Maybe.  But we no longer have the stoic and made of sterner stuff citizens we had then.  We now have wimps, whiners and twaddle -brained imps who have lost their common sense, courage and intellect to PR and propaganda.   As a prime exhibit there is Repuke strategist Alex Castellanos who told The Washington Post:

"Members of the Church of Secular Science bow to the Gods of Data by wearing a mask as their symbol, demonstrating that they are the elite; smarter, more rational, and morally superior to everyone else.”

Maybe not necessarily "morally superior", since this isn't a gauge of morality, though it is of ethics, i.e. in saving lives and  grasping one's responsibility to the larger community, namely the vulnerable ones such as elders and disabled citizens.   But yes, if we accept the data and the science concerning the virus we ARE more rational and I'd wager smarter.    In general, anyone guided by facts and reason is more intelligent than one who is not, like Dotard Trump.

But Castellanos' take suggests we will have to  continue to deal with irrational clowns and the idiots with misbegotten notions of liberty,  as well as medical Sophists like Ladipo.   Thus, we will likely have to shut down again to force these imps to learn a painful lesson they ought to have learned in March.  As Janice put it: "This country has too many idiots!"  Alas, I concur.  The "Greatest  Generation"  we are not.  The election of Trump has ensured that, and the real test to see if we are worthy citizens will come in November, in whether we can expel the maggot traitor one time.   "Make America Great Again?"  Maybe, but only if Trump is dumped first!

See Also:





Friday, May 1, 2020

In Fragmented Response To Reopeninig - Survivng COVID -19 May Depend On Your State Getting the R-Nought Down To 1.0


Armed domestic terrorists  in Lansing, MI yesterday, antsy to rush back to croak from the SARS- Cov-2 virus.  Most are brainwashed dupes of the coronavirus truthers at FOX.


"Look, in a public swimming pool there is no separate area designated for urination. In the same sense, if you have one state opening up that hasn't controlled infections it affects all other states." - Health specialist last night on All In'

"Today, The Wall Street Journal ran an editorial about R nought - but they don't even look at their own news stories which feature the Asian successes.  I mean we're not so stupid in America that we can't learn from the others.  Right now it's like a madhouse that we don't know what to do.  Like governors and states are debating the dates to open and not the contact tracing.  Not following the confirmed cases, not preparing the quarantine.  This is the tragedy because we're wasting our time Do we have any sense of learning the most basic things, that's the real issue."-  Dr. Jeffrey Sachs, Columbia University, on 'All In' Wednesday night

" This is what I a deeply and profoundly concerned about, which is the over interpretation that some of these early antibody studies that suggest as many as 80fold more have actually seen the virus, that this is being used to suggest 'oh this is not a devastatingly deadly or virulent disease.  But anchor it on what we actually see. In the major cities that have been hit, whether in Wuhan, China, northern Italy or New York City iur intensive care units have been overwhelmed with virus. Even in the worst flu years we don't see the bodies piling up in morgues that can't handle them.  This is far worst than flu and we have to be careful as we interpret these early assessments of the percent of people in our communities that have seen the virus, We have to be careful that we don't reopen the economy too early because this will provoke a second wave of epidemic, and behind it we will see the deaths start to mount,
 -Dr. George Q. Daley, Dean of Harvard Medical School, Wednesday night on 'All In'

"You can't just leap over things and getting into a situation where you're really tempting a rebounf. That's the thing I get concerned about. I hope they don't do that."  Dr. Anthony Fauci, yesterday

"All of humanity’s problems stem from man’s inability to sit quietly in a room alone.”  -  Philosopher Blaise Pascal

In this pandemic era let us concede delusions run wild, not only amidst the ongoing culture wars where liars (coronavirus truthers)  and armed right wing terrorists run amuck. But also  in the rarefied realm of pie-eyed  than Wall Street  investors who have single-handedly  pumped the S&P 500 up by 31 percent since March 23rd.  This according to the NY Times, and despite waves of grim news: Over 1 million US. cases, 60,000 dead, 16 percent unemployment, a tanking GDP - irrational exuberance continues to hold sway.  Much of this is tuned to the belief - not really supported empirically - that the world in 10-12 months will look manifestly better than it does now. This despite states reopening their economies when they haven't even shown progress in declining infections, testing or lowering the transmission rate, otherwise known as R-nought.


As Chris Hayes so superbly explained on his 'All In' show Wednesday night: 


"There is actually a specific goal every society is trying to accomplish, and that is to keep the rate for transmission of the coronavirus down.  So that each infected person, on average, infects less than one other person.  This is the key benchmark: if the transmission rate is less than 1 the disease is declining. If the transmission rate is more than 1 the disease is spreading. That is literally the threshold to create a society and an economy that are working."


And unlike the trolls and Covid truthers on FOX News   - like Tucker Carlson and Sean Hannity - this is basic  science biology if you will.   As opposed to propaganda to feed the gullible, poorly educated, or Right wing loons toting ARs into statehouses.  The warp and woof of this virus then, is defined by two fundamental parameters: the transmission rate ("R nought")  and fatality rate.  Both of which, I might add, assorted medical quacks have tried to lowball in recent weeks, even despite overflowing ERs, even dozens of rotting bodies as discovered in a Brooklyn funeral home yesterday.  According to the NY Times (April 30, 'Bodies Pile Up As N.Y. Struggles To Bury Its Dead'):


"With more than 18,000 announced fatalities and a total death toll that is almost certainly higher, the coronavirus crisis is the worst mass casualty event to hit New York since the Spanish flu pandemic a century ago. At the height of the outbreak in April, a New Yorker was dying almost every two minutes — more than 800 per day, or four times the city’s normal death rate. And though the daily toll has recently slowed, hundreds of bodies are still emerging each day from private homes and hospitals."
 

 Would a "seasonal flu"  cause such an overflow - or 60,000 dead in 2 months? No, only a dedicated liar, imbecile or quack would say so, given a low fatality rate virus would not generate nursing homes or funeral homes full of rotting corpses, or flooded ICUs. 

Unlike our moron leader, Germany's Angela Merkel holds a doctorate in quantum chemistry. She was thereby eminently qualified to explain the basis of the reproduction rate barely two weeks ago, as Germany prepared to open up its economy. She noted, for example, at this time (when the R-nought was about 1.0):


"I can only say that for one chain of infection, if one person will infect on other person that is an average of one person infecting one other. If we get to the point each person infects 1.1. other people then by October we would reach the capacity level of our health system, and its assumed number of intensive care beds. If we get to 1.2 people infected per person - which is just 20 percent more than what we have now - then we will reach the limit of our health care system in July.  And if it is 1.3 people infected per person we will reach the limit in June.


So that is where we can see how little the margin is. The margin for error."


As Hayes said, imagine having a leader with that kind of ability, to be able to describe the core issue to citizens, with that level of nuance.  Well, as we know, we lack such a leader in this country. We are left with only a pretender and dyspeptic brat moron, part of the reason we've now racked up more deaths than in the Vietnam war.   We also understand that propping up  this phony leader is an entire propaganda establishment, determined to try to shoehorn him into office again despite revealing himself as totally unfit in this pandemic. 

 Like FOX News and its coronavirus truthers, the Trump Propaganda Axis includes Rush Limbaugh, and the Wall Street Journal Editorial staff - responsible for its op-ed pages.  Hence, Jeffrey Sachs' reference (see quote at top) to these editors not even "looking at their own news stories".  Well, they don't because those pages are under the control of Rupert Murdoch himself and will always hew to the truther line echoed by FOX.  Hence, the 4/29 editorial ('Germany's R0 Experiment', p. A18) barking bollocks like:


"The upward drift in Germany's reproduction rate (R0) now suggests that those strict lockdown measures may not have stopped the disease in its tracks so much as delayed the inevitable at enormous cost."


But as Merkel herself stated in her speech (replayed on All In) that time bought by the lockdown actually freed up one third more capacity in hospital ICUs.  While it is true that the R-value has crept back up to 1.0 from 0.8,  Lothar Weiler - head of the Robert Koch Institute (which the WSJ editors quote)  has asserted:  "the increase alone is not cause for alarm" - but "we don't want it to go back up again" i.e. to 1.1.  That Germany is considering reimposing lockdown measures, then, merely shows Ms. Merkel has her hands on the brakes and is powering up the German economy under strict controls. 

This as opposed to the reckless "race car" ambitions of states in the U.S. - all headed for a huge crack up-- and Trump's refusal to take any responsibility.  It certainly doesn't mean Germany has only "delayed the inevitable" as the WSJ paints it.   It is also instructive to read - from the WSJ's own regular news pages (e.g. 'South Korea To Open Up But Carefully', p. A9) how South Korea is gearing up with multiple conditions for reopening.  This in a nation that's already tested almost to the limit, and now "has a rule for almost everything".   I.e.  "The guidelines spell how everything from how to work to how to relax ahead of a full resumption of daily activities."


This, compared to the U.S. where Trump has now insisted his guidelines for reopening  have been aborted from today, May 1st.  And further indicating lack leadership, this in a nation that's tested barely one percent of citizens while S. Korea has tested close to 10 percent. South Korea then, like Japan, Taiwan and other nations, has a rational basis to reopen. Again using testing and contact tracing to systematically track down the disease- to thereby KNOW where it is before unleashing its masses. The U.S under Trump and the truthers is doing just the opposite. Fortunately, many in the U.S. just aren't going to bite, and will remain in lockdown whatever nutsos - like Rick Desantis in FLA- recklessly open up. 


But the key point that may be lost on too many, is how many of the states now opening up are using the science and information described by Angela Merkel.  In other words knowing what their existing real time R value is, called  R t , before opening up.   It appears hardly any are, in fact 8 states (Alabama, Idaho, Texas, North Dakota, Indiana, Iowa, Utah, Wyoming) are rushing to open despite having no declines over the past 14 days - one of the Trump bunch's "Phase 1"  determinants. Hence,  without thought of the exponential rate of infection which is why the margin for error is so small.  Err too much on the side of opening things up - while ignoring the R-value in your area- and you face a calamity such as now occurring in Black Hawk County, Iowa - thanks to a moron governor mandating sick people go to work.  Or listen too much to the rubbish data and "over interpretations"  (the term of Harvard's Medical School Dean)  trotted out by the quacks  (Joseph Ladapo)  and proto-quacks  like John Ioannides and his Stanford ilk


Other nations like S. Korea (WSJ, April 29, p. A9) and Taiwan have been able to keep the virus suppressed by lots of testing and contact tracing - which latter aspect the Trumpies seem to have barely heard of.  This, even as a nitwit like Jared Kushner brags that the response has been next to sublime.  Fortunately, intelligent state governors now have a tool at hand which can forecast for them the number of cases and deaths if they relent too soon on social restrictions.   The tool is known as the  Massachusetts General Hospital simulator, and can be found at this link:

https://analytics-tools.shinyapps.io/covid19simulator06/


One need only select the state and what level of extending existing sequester conditions apply.  The simulator will then show the total cases up to some date 'x' as well as expected fatalities.

According to The Boston Globe,  Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker plans to announce later this week whether the coronavirus order closing nonessential businesses in Massachusetts will be extended.  But according to this Massachusetts General Hospital  (MGH) simulator, the decision ought to be a no brainer .  According to the Globe (April 29)

"As other states across the country began easing restrictions meant to curb the spread of COVID-19 over the weekend, researchers at the Boston hospital released the new interactive online tool predicting a second wave of COVID-19 infections and deaths this summer if shutdown orders are lifted this spring — both across the country and in Massachusetts. According to the MGH simulator, the state’s business closure order and stay-at-home advisory should remain in place for another 12 weeks — or until roughly July 20 — to ensure against a late-summer surge in COVID-19 hospitalizations and to keep the number of statewide deaths due the disease just under 5,000 through the end of August. As of Monday, the COVID-19 death toll in Massachusetts stood at just over 3,000.
But if the state’s current restrictions were allowed to expire in four weeks and replaced by “minimal restrictions,” on May 25, the simulator predicts catastrophe.
The outbreak would accelerate again in July, killing more than 27,000 people in Massachusetts and infecting more than 2.8 million people — or roughly 40 percent of the state’s population — by the end of August. And if restrictions were lifted in just two weeks, the model predicts 42,700 deaths — and nearly 3.4 million cumulative COVID-19 cases in Massachusetts alone. In both scenarios, the state’s health care system would be completely overwhelmed by a second surge of patients dwarfing the number available hospital beds, according to the model."
Jagpreet Chhatwal, the MGH project lead, said the simulator is intended to inform coronavirus response efforts in the midst of the quickly changing and uncertain environment. But the staggering worst-case numbers belie the fact that the somewhat rigid, if illustrative, tool doesn’t cleanly map onto the policy options before the Baker administration.

The simulator models three differing intervention levels: a complete travel lockdown, the state’s current orders, and “minimal restrictions” — the latter of which includes no state mandates and only “learned social awareness” about the disease.  Even with those efforts in mind, Chhatwal told WBUR in an interview Sunday that the model suggests the state shouldn’t lift restrictions until the end of June, when the state will have enough testing to isolate all active COVID-19 cases.  In the words of the MGH researcher and assistant professor at Harvard Medical School:

“Before that, if we lift restrictions, the virus can spread in the community, which can be difficult to trace,”  
Is this simulator result a shot over the bow of other states, especially the likes of Iowa and Georgia where Governors are literally mandating workers (e.g. in meat packing plants in Iowa) go back to work? You bet it is.  Right now, from what research professional such as Prof. Ashish Jha and Harvard's Medical Dean, Dr. George Q. Daley argue, we are in deep trouble.  That's because this reopening operation is moving ahead blindly with too limited testing capacity - despite enormous capacity being unused. ('U.S. Testing Capacity Is Going Unused', WSJ, 4/ 30, p. A5)   Why is this happening? Because of a total abdication of responsibility by the Trump administration. To wit, "largely leaving the challenge up to the states" .

 So: "the result is a disorganized system that isn't matching limited supply with demand."

Without that testing, and a rigorous program of contact tracing,  we are witnessing too many states and citizens acting like lemmings in their yen to jump into an open economy- rife with the virus.  They need to settle down, put rifles away, and study the news images from a  Brooklyn neighborhood, i.e.  when the police found dozens of decomposing bodies stashed inside two trucks outside a funeral home on Utica Avenue in Brooklyn.

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Thursday, April 16, 2020

Why Holman Jenkins & His WSJ Wrecking Crew Want To Get You Back To Work Prematurely





In  what Janice calls "Americans' last IQ test"  we beheld Capt. Bonespurs bellowing about getting the U.S. economy open before May.  Fortunately, the CEOs of major companies in a meeting with the imp pushed back, saying 'Whoa! We need lots more testing first!"  This echoes Dr. Tara Narulla's warning this a.m. - to those who have ears to listen and a brain to process: 

"We need tests to be ubiquitous, efficient and to have a rapid turnaround time.  Without that we're really flying blind - and it's not just a question of opening the economy but keeping the economy open. If we can do that and fix the problems on the supply side then hopefully we can reopen the economy and keep it open."

Clearly, Dr. Tara gets it - like nearly all medical specialists and especially the epidemiologists.  She gets that the economy cannot be prematurely opened - without enormous viral blowback  i.e. until an effective mass testing program is underway. This is one which can test 20 % or more of the population, as opposed to the barely 1 percent thus far.  But while she gets it, and millions of Americans do as well, we behold a build up of  irrational impatience in a number of places, from Vegas to Lansing, Michigan, even as the mitigation is beginning to work.  For example, we saw last night and this a.m parading Tea baggers holding 'Don't Tread on Us!' signs as well as others with 'Liberty once lost is lost forever' signs.  Hey, Trumpista dolts, how about your life once lost is lost forever?  Then you won't have to worry about any income, period!

Meanwhile, Vegas' mayor Carolyn Goodman belched out: "This shutdown has become one of total insanity!"  Uh no, my dear mayor lady, it's become an effective means to prevent Vegas' hospitals from overflowing with Covid patients.   But lest we come down too hard on these minor leaders like Goodman - or South Dakota's  clueless governor Kristi Noem (who refuses to shut down despite one of the biggest clusters in the nation) or the hoi polloi screaming protests for "taking their liberties", let's look further afield at the real culprits.  The brigands in media - mainly reactionary right trolls - who keep feeding these memes- energizing the "revolt of the dummies" to borrow J's parlance.

Start with the WSJ editorial scribes themselves (i.e. 'It's Still America, Virus Or Not!', April 13, p.  A16) who Joe Scarborough ripped to shreds just two mornings ago, e.g. "Who do these Wall Street  Journal editors think they are?  They yelp about liberals just wanting to feed money to workers instead of going back to their jobs. When they can sit in their nice home offices and not have to worry about getting sick!" 

Of course, though Joe focused on the rush to get back to jobs, the Journal's editors went even further off the deep end in their bogus arguments, ibid.:

"The First Amendment still stops government from prohibiting the free exercise of religion, and still guarantees the right to free assembly."

Incredibly conflating the first amendment and free exercise of religion with the right to assemble cheek to jowl amidst a pandemic..  So with the spread of such deformed and misbegotten memes it's no wonder we have seen as many fellow citizens as we have devolve into stupidity.  It seems, as Janice is wont to say, "in this country the virus of stupidity is as rife as the bat virus."  Well, yeah, ok, I have to agree if we see these Tea Party -like protests continue.

 Then there is the Journal's proudest provocateur and rhetorical bomb thrower, Holman Jenkins Jr. In an earlier (April 7) blog post  I already highlighted his  daft op-ed ('Was Dr. Strangelove an Epidemiologist?')  where he trots out a medical resident named Joseph A. Ladapo (of UCLA) who claimed in a recent op-ed that "the shutdowns if prolonged will only make matters worse."      Adding that even when restrictions are lifted "we will emerge right back where we started.... and no matter what our hospitals will still be overwhelmed."

Says who?  As I observed at the time one was left to wonder where this quack came by that "Eureka" brain fart.  In fact, Jenkins' balderdash was pure propaganda only spun to try to get pressure on the medical community to loosen standards and allow the virus to resume its hatchet job on hospitals, nursing homes, meat packing plants and prisons.  It can't be otherwise, i.e. like Jenkins Jr. really cares because every word he writes (e.g. 'Sweden Is a Viral Punching Bag', WSJ, April 15, p. A15) reinforces the conclusion he's out for one thing: reopening the economy too soon so he can quickly resume his evening dinners of foie de gras and wine.  Most telling in his latest (April 15, ibid.) jeremiad against the medical community:

"When it's all over, academics will look seriously at how the lockdown strategy compares with alternative strategies .  They will ask how much of our apparent curve flattening to date was due to individuals taking precautions, how much to heavy -handed government intervention. How many lives- and more realistically years- were really saved by our efforts?"

Again, the  little Neolib mutt just doesn't get it.   He doesn't get that the core issue is preventing our limited medical system (including in terms of supplies raided by Trump, Jared & Co.) from being overrun. Already in NYC the past two weeks we've beheld a system at the very brink - often with double the number of Covid patients for the ER (or ICU) capacity.  Did Holman see any of this?   The fact that New York's system didn't tip over into chaos was all because of the mitigation efforts which he belittles, suggesting some alternative mode of solutions exists. It doesn't, other than in his febrile mind.

Another crass and cynical aspect of the above quote from Jenkins' piece is the question, 'How many lives- more realistically years- were really saved by our efforts?'  This rhetorical bit and its implication may have been missed by many.  What he means by referring to "years saved" is the fact that older Americans - say in the 70-85 year bracket, don't have that many years of their life left anyway, say compared to young sprats, millennials etc.  Hence, the deaths of older Americans in his quantitative risk vs. benefit view don't count as much toward being "saved", if lost to Covid.  One hundred seniors with maybe two years left each (on average) to live in nursing homes, by his reckoning, adds up to 200 years saved. Compared to 100 millennials with maybe 50 years each left to live.  In this way, Jenkins can pretend to minimize the loss of life, the same way his conservo compadre Bill O'Reilly could when he said of dying seniors in nursing homes, "They were mostly on their last legs anyway."

But look, without any valid cures, treatments or vaccines,  we are all for the high jump anyway, say if the economy is prematurely opened. Especially before widespread effective testing and contact tracing. This is the method we are left with, whether Jenkins Jr. likes it or not. Or his WSJ compadre Daniel Henninger (WSJ, today,'Restore Laissez -Faire Capitalism', p. A13) who insists we need "a bare bones government, not a bare bones economy".   Hey, Henny, how about just bare bones - and skulls - piled up in pit graves across the country? You ok with that, mate?  After all, Henny doesn't want any "security blanket statism " (i.e. 'dirigisme') with workers begging the gov't to  help feed them and their family- say instead of the hedge fund owners ready to tap into the PPP (Paycheck Protection Program).  As revealed by Bloomberg News, most of these hedge fund operations chomping at the bit for cheap, no strings loans, only have four or five employees.   Henny, I am sure, will be fine with that "laissez-faire" giveaway as will Holman Jenkins.

Thus, whisking millions back to work prematurely serves two main purposes for the WSJ's hacks: 1) Disabling any need for the govt' to step in again to send relief checks or expand food stamps etc., and 2) To provide more billions for the rich, the one percent, hedge fund owners, Repuke donors and the like..   As I often say, you can't make this shit up. Out of the mouths of capitalist loons and baboons.

Zeke Emanuel (oncologist and Vice Provost for Global Initiatives at the Univ. of Pennsylvania)- put it in stark terms for the economy Ã¼ber alles  humpers like Jenkins, Henninger et al on the April 6th 'Last Word' :

"Realistically COVID -19 will be here at least for the next 18 months or more.  There will be no normalcy until we find a vaccine or effective medications.   I know that's dreadful news to hear. How are people supposed to find work if this goes on in some form for a year and a half?   Is all this economic pain worth trying to stop COVID-19?

The truth is, we have no choice. Prematurely ending the physical distancing and the other measures, the deaths could skyrocket into the hundreds of thousands if not millions. We cannot return to normal  until there's a vaccine. Conferences, concerts, sporting events, religious services, dinner at a restaurant, none of that will resume until we find a vaccine, a treatment or  a cure."


At the basis of these strategies is the nature of exponential growth for this virus, e.g.

 As described by one knowledgeable WSJ columnist ('The Power of Exponential Growth', p. C4, April 4-5). 

"Exponential growth is dangerous because if each person infects more than one other person, the spread of disease quickly becomes overwhelming. Multiplying by 3 for instance. it only takes 21 steps to reach 10 billion, more than the current population of the world."

 Little Holman would do well to process and remember her words, and he might also avail himself of the recent work of sane WSJ columnist Jo Craven McGinty ('Why The Flu Doesn't Tank The Economy',  April 11-12, p A2) wherein she notes:  "Instead of gentle waves of cases cascading around the country like the flu, a tidal wave of Covid cases has swept across major cities in half the time"

The point being that the R- nought is significantly greater so the rate of transmission is faster. This is a fact any dolt has to master before jumping like a lemming onto the hurry up and re-open bandwagon.  

 Holman needs to process all this (along with his WSJ editors) before he next writes fulsome twaddle complaining about "heavy-handed government intervention".   Nobel winning economist Paul Romer on All In last week posited over 300 million tests were needed nationwide before we can even think of returning to business as usual.  This country isn't even doing one hundredth of such tests per week, so how can there be the most remote hint of reopening? Further, the U.S. federal government "has yet to launch a national test and trace strategy to find and isolate virus carriers" (WSJ, today, p. A9), without which it is sheer madness to reopen.

At minimum, as Prof. Romer indicated to Chris Hayes,  we need at least 4- 5 million tests per week to get a basic idea who's infected, where the virus is. The sad and sorry fact? The U.S. of A. has barely done 3.2 million tests in the past month - so we're way way behind the curve of testing adequacy.  Without that and contact tracing it's a bloody fool's errand to open the country up. Apart from which opening up is not like flicking on a light switch. As Anthony Fauci pointed out to ABC's David Muir in an interview on the news  last night:

"It's gonna be like a rolling re-entry not like a light switch turning on and off.... Also, we do not know everything about this virus and what it's capable of doing. It is also entirely conceivable we will see a rebound of the virus as we get into a seasonal situation, such as next fall or winter."

The other element Jenkins and his team of  greedhead buffoons don't grasp, is that the economy is inextricably bound with the nature of the virus, the pandemic.  "You want to get the economy back? Take care of the virus!"  In the words of Chris Hayes, host of 'All In' last night. Until the problem of the virus is fully solved, there is no way in hell that the economy can come back even in a diluted, weakened state. But try telling or explaining that to those like the Pennsylvania Repukes pushing against Gov. Tom Wolf to open the state up - with one Repuke Mike Turzai- blurting:

"The hurt from the economy is as great as the hurt from the virus, so we need to help both at the same time."

Uh no, dope, you can't "help both at the same time".   The reason is that the economic function -at any level - is contingent on the control of the virus.  That is only achieved with a vast testing and contact tracing program. Do you have that? If no, then you can't open the economy yet.  The worst outcome at this stage would be a second wave of deaths, illness to begin because states let up too soon.   Such a scenario would force an even longer postponement. How hard is this to process?

With inadequate testing there will always be the lurking virus clusters (like in a Smithfield meat plant Sioux Falls,SD because of its inept, dumb governor Kristi Noem) especially with the dearth of proper testing going on now - which ought to have commenced months ago.

On reading Jenkins' propaganda piffle it was also clear to me he doesn't really believe in the idea - better principle, of flattening the curve. This is when he refers to "apparent curve flattening".    But there's nothing "apparent" about it.
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One can see, even if one has zero math skills and couldn't pass a Mensa test if his life depended on it (like Jenkins et al) that flattening the curve is real and is evidenced when the caseloads are less than what we'd see if the hospitals were overwhelmed. As we look to the states where strict mitigation was in force, e.g. CA, WA, we can easily see it works and they've even been able to donate ventilators and staff to the states in the east (NY, NJ etc.). 

Another aspect is that if mitigation is not coordinated simultaneously  for all states, then one would have different curves in succession at different times -  like a wave train.  This is what the US of A is in for,  looking at the red states like TX, SD, etc. none of which have firm shelter in place rules.  That means, logically - as virologist Dr. David Ho has pointed out, the curves for flattening are spread out over time.  Don't fancy the longer wait?   Then blame Trump for his lack of leadership is setting up a coherent national coordination policy!

In the case of multiple curves spread over time, we then have -  instead of one area under the curve to deal with say 'A'  (the area under the green hump above)-   a succession of areas: A1 + A2 + A3 etc. each area extending over the time axis.   That means the flattening process will take much much longer and hence the time to justify reopening the economy will take much longer.  This is what Jenkins and his band of nitwits doesn't grasp.  That includes the likes of ol' Phil Gramm - long time anti-big government gadfly (and former Chairman of the Senate Banking Committee)who in his latest effort ('More Stimulus Would Crush The Recovery',  WSJ, April 15, p. 17)  clearly has no sympathy for the 17-odd million Americans currently without income - other than what the CARES act has provided. And yet this mutt would deny them any more despite that $1200 per person, and extra unemployment cash - will barely last another month - if they are lucky.

What's Gramm's (and co-author's Michael Solon's) answer?   Well, it's to "rely on private capital and initiative and our free enterprise system".   In other words, let the loafers waiting for new handouts get off their butts and figure out - using "initiative" - ways to enhance their cash flow without depending on gov't handouts.  Else, "all this new government borrowing will consume the very oxygen a powerful recovery will need,"

What are Gramm, Jenkins Jr., Solon and the Wall Street Journal editorialists terrified of? Well, a "Depression-esque recovery" demanded by the Democrats in an election year. Which, of course would be horrific given the Democrats "have sought to use the crisis to permanently expand government spending and the role government plays in the aftermath."

Yep, for sure we don't want government providing desperate millions of our fellow citizens a lifeline to survive a few more months - with no money coming in to pay for groceries, utilities, or rent.  The Repuke barbarians would rather let those millions perish in pauperhood than let the federal government extend a helping hand.  The motto of these apes is to "let 'em lift themselves by their own bootstraps or pound sand."

Hence, the Scrooge aspects of so many of the "solutions" proferred, from raiding their own 401ks to get the money they need, to taking out loans and asking for "forbearance", to drawing down on their Social Security early.  What next will these fools offer? Going to blood banks and trying to sell blood to get nutrition for their starving kids? 

Instead, they'd rather keep that $250m now being held up (in the latest CARES bill) to support more tax breaks for hedge fund billionaires and other wealthy pals of Trump and the Repubs.  As noted  last night (All In) the Washington Post reported that 80 percent of the tax changes in the new coronavirus  relief package "overwhelmingly benefit millionaires."    So while a young guy like Ned Standford, featured on ABC news and just laid off, barely has a buck left to get a box of Kraft Macaroni and Cheese, the millionaires that WSJ and Jenkins et al pander to will be sitting pretty.  But this is all the more reason people not allow themselves to be played like pawns by the Wall Street cowboy capitalists.  Will the Tea Party type Trumpsters marching in Lansing and elsewhere get it?  I didn't even bother to ask Janice as I know already what she will say.

Btw, if you're wondering why your "stimulus" check is taking longer to arrive it's because Trump deliberately held them up so his monicker could be imprinted on the checks by the Treasury Dept. (He now denies it, but the delay has already affected the timing.)  So the checks will now take an extra 2-3 days (so we're told) because Trump has to stroke his own ,monstrous ego- even while kids are going without soup and parents without basics like TP.

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