"The crisis we now find ourselves in is a human tragedy, an economic calamity but it is also a singular national humiliation. We're living in a moment when the U.S. is a laughingstock or a subject of pity around the world."- Chris Hayes on All In, July 2nd
As the SARS-Cov-2 virus continues its depredations, with 30,000 new deaths forecast in the next 3 weeks, it may finally be sinking in this is serious. The Covid 19 plague has already shattered all illusions that the summer heat would make it vanish and the economy would be going 'gangbusters'. Americans are gradually learning that the virus controls their economy, not vice versa. and until we get the damned thing under control - meaning decreasing cases in all 50 states- reopening is a fool's errand.
Earlier the mindless followers of Trump, including at FOX News and the WSJ's op ed pages, had puzzled over why even aggressive tactics for reopening in red states have come a cropper. These nabobs were convinced that sheer will and courage in reopening would put the virus in its place, with American pluck the supreme victor. That lasted only until we've beheld ice trucks laden with corpses fill up, like in Texas' Rio Grande valley (Hidalgo County), where they are now seeing the folly of reopening too soon, i.e. before the cases had gone down.
As Dr. David Ho put it on Maddow Wednesday night: "The situation can still be saved but we have to act NOW!" By "act" he meant instituting a 2nd nationwide lockdown as well as universal masking and social distancing until the cases are on a downward trend again. Oh, and doing this along with contact tracing and ten times more testing. This is why over 150 medical -epidemiological experts have dispatched a letter to the powers - that-be to get it right this time around, e.g.
https://uspirg.org/sites/pirg/files/USP_Public-health_final-letter-shutdowns_V2.pdf
Enough then, with the BS and balderdash that the "economy can't sustain any more lockdowns" and "Masks take away my personal freedoms!"
People, in other words, have to grasp the tail doesn't wag the dog. The dog being the pandemic. The 'dog' (pandemic) determines how confident customers are in venturing out - whether to dine, buy school items, board a plane, or just shop in supermarkets. Right now nearly 72% of Americans aren't confident at all and as they see the new surge and its deadly toll, their lack of trust is fully justified.
That includes wifey and me. We will soon (next month) be celebrating our 45 th anniversary. But as much as we'd like to we will not be dining out. Too dangerous still - especially given our ages and each of us has conditions that would make us more vulnerable if infected. So we will order food for takeout then just pick it up, and watch a pay per view movie dining at home.
According to The Denver Post yesterday (p. 9A) restaurants that pulled the economy through the great recession ten years ago are no longer able to do so. Keeping to 50 percent (or lower) capacity does not a profit make. As the piece notes:
"Restaurants now are less likely to deliver an economic boost, having suffered lockdowns and occupancy restrictions. It's also unclear how readily Americans will return to dining out."
Well, from the polls available, not too readily. Especially the senior population that frequents restaurants the most. The article goes on:
"Before the pandemic restaurants had employed 11 million people nationwide- more than the number that worked in construction or in factories. They generated more revenue than grocery stores. From 1990 through February this year they generated more than twice as many restaurant jobs (91%) as overall jobs (40%)."
Going on to point out that as restaurants reluctantly closed their sales sank more than 50%- from $66b in February to $30 b in April. In March 5.4 million restaurant workers had to be let go. And while 1.4 million were rehired in May, that is set to crater once more as Covid 19 has surged in many Sunbelt states and new lockdowns loom.
Add to that 10 -11 million close to eviction because the eviction moratorium ends July 31, and 30 million plus who will lose their unemployment bonus of $600/week by the end of next week if congress (i.e. Reepo Senate) doesn't vote to extend them. If not, it's self-evident that spending - any kind - is set to crash as people rightly pull in the purse strings for simple financial self-preservation. So you can blame any further crash of the economy or an extended recession on the Repubs who've been dithering for over two months on whether to extend the unemployment bonus. Their worry? They feel too many would just loaf at home, not return to work - and watch TV soaps - like they would do in their place. Wastrel Reeptardo goofballs like Ted Yoho (FL). Oh, and morons like Sen. Ron Johnson (WSJ, today, p. A15, 'No More Blank Checks From Congress For Coronavirus') spouting the usual Repuke idiocy:
"There is no need to continue broad economic shutdowns with fatalities in these (low annual flu) ranges."
Again, unable to process with his feeble intellect that it isn't fatalities driving the crisis but overwhelmed ICUs and health workers from the higher infection rates which translate into much higher intensive care rates. Because the ER- ICU teams are desperately trying to stop the infections from becoming fatalities. In addition, Johnson takes no account of the lasting damage: vascular, cognitive, to liver, to kidneys etc. - that outlasts being hospitalized and which 1 in 3 recovering patients will deal with for 3 weeks or more.
But despite these very real risks to workers with infection on returning to work amidst the current surge, this fool won't budge. He doesn't want another cent going to the 30 million Americans still unable to get work. They can go pound sand for all he cares.
Frustrated by pushing premature reopenings that have now resulted in many thousands more deaths and ICUs flooded, Trump has vowed to make it ten times worse by pushing schools to reopen for the fall. But does anyone with an IQ over 10 really believe that's going to make Covid deaths go down or help retailers and restaurants stay open? Prize-winning medical journalist Laurie Garrett isn't biting and lashed out at how Trump has rendered America's schools "medical and moral catastrophes" and they are nowhere near ready to reopen, e.g.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/07/24/americas-schools-are-a-moral-and-medical-catastrophe/
This is because in nearly all the areas considering school reopening, none have achieved the goal of 14 straight days of declining cases. Hence, the nation's retailers for sure aren't holding their breath to see a huge school purchase boom (WSJ, 'Retailers Face Hard Lesson', July 23, p. B12) The piece points out retailers - especially geared to school sales- can't even properly gauge inventory because of the existing uncertainty - including parents' fears. They don't know whether ordering tons of hoodies, calculators, and backpacks now will leave them still sitting on shelves in September.
Hell, the Trump morons have even railed against the CDC guidelines for schools to reopen as "too restrictive", and those don't even include a high grade HEPA filter in each classroom, as one Harvard prof has insisted be installed.
And until the money is spent to ensure these kind of adaptations - including enough space for limited capacity classes- Americans aren't buying. According to a Denver Post piece yesterday ('Very Few Americans Back Full Reopening of Schools', p. 14 A):
"Only about one in ten Americans think daycare centers, preschools or K12 schools should open this fall without restrictions, according to a new poll from the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs."
And further 46 percent think "major adjustments" are needed, i.e. HEPA filters working in each classroom, while 31 percent don't believe any in person instruction should happen this fall. Of course, the wealthy have their own solutions which will work for them as the WSJ let us know 3 days ago, e.g
Amid Coronavirus, Parents 'Pod Up' to Form At-Home Schools ...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/amid-coronavirus-parents-pod-up-to-form-at-home-schools-11595323805
But this is a no-go for most American parents who will barely be able to make it if new stimulus checks and unemployment bonuses aren't forthcoming from the cheapskate Reepos.
The importance of infusing more lifeline checks to people is also underscored when we see (WSJ, July 23, 'Virus Effect On Retailers Worse Than Expected', p. B1):
"With a resurgence of coronavirus cases across much of the country, companies that were relatively healthy before the pandemic are showing signs of buckling. Bankruptcies in the sector are piling up, with more retailers seeking Chapter 11 protection so far in 2020 than all last year. "
The result? "The financial pain for U.S. retailers is worsening beyond what executives and analysts anticipated when the coronavirus began to spread."
Well, they fell off the mark in expectations because they miscalculated the degree of arrogance and over confidence in state governors who believed (like Texas' Guv Greg Abbott) they could just plow ahead with reopenings and devil take the virus. Except the virus is having the final say as bodies cram into ICUs and health workers are on their last legs from the stress and work of caring for so many. Indeed, in Texas' Hidalgo County, triage will now have to be implemented at hospitals to determine who can enter an ICU and who is beyond hope of saving.
We let ourselves get into this mess by not taking the virus seriously as other nations (like the United Arab Emirates - with the highest testing rate in the world) We also had too many stupid people who believed wearing masks was a political statement - and proceeded to start fights with workers in stores over defending their "rights". Ignoring the fact there are no rights without responsibilities. Finally, we were led to this tragic pass by not having a coordinated national strategy - because our leaders lacked both the vision and courage.
So no wonder now we see the likes of Michael Appel (of Appel Associates LLC) saying (ibid.):
"You're going to see as time goes on how the dominoes fall. The big question for any retailer is if they close tomorrow would anyone care."
The same could be asked of the casinos in Vegas- one of our favorite places and which we enjoyed in October of last year, e.g. the Bellagio Fountains at night seen from our 11th floor room:
Flash forward 8 months, now we learn (WSJ, July 23, p. B3) the Sands revenue alone has dropped 97% and pessimism has engulfed the town. During a conference call with Wall Street analysts Sands Chief operating officer Robert Goldstein "offered a pessimistic outlook for Las Vegas" To wit, "even if casino revenue rebounds conventions and other group events have supplanted gambling as the primary economic engine."
He goes on to tell the WSJ (ibid.)
"In all of the years I've been here in Las Vegas I've never felt more gloomy than I do today about what's happening in Las Vegas short term."
In essence, he said, all the Strip's resorts are now "running like a regional casino operator relying on nearby gamblers driving in."
In other words, the thousands of Vegas visitors who'd normally arrive daily by air to fill the resorts and casinos (like when we were there) are no longer doing so. (Again largely driven by fear of infection associated with getting on a plane.) So in Las Vegas now it's all local folk or none at all. No casino can survive for long in a restrictive (and artificial) bubble like that. Again, public -customer confidence dictates the economic register and that is determined by the fear (or not) of the virus. As long as we refuse to contain it - which means pursuing rigorous methods - we will not make headway.
The lessons, some of which are restated here (also in terms of the economic blowback), are summed in one takeaway:
There will be no going back to any kind of normality or vibrant economy until we get this virus under control.
And that does not mean each manjack doing his or her own thing, or blowing off the experts. It means pulling together as my folks and their generation did during World War II. No whining, no bitching or fighting with store workers - just putting on the big boy pants and acting like responsible adults for once! As opposed to toddlers in need of their personal sippy cups.
See Also:
by Jaime O'Neill | July 24, 2020 - 7:14am | permalink
Excerpt:
"It is sickening that we mostly still can't find out if we're sick, can't get tested until it's often very late in this deadly game that is no game at all. It is sickening to inventory ourselves daily for symptoms, to attempt to self-diagnose without the tools to do so. It is sickening that we are told things that are later rescinded, or that the leader of our nation insists on spreading so much misinformation. It is sickening we can't get those tests we need, and it is sickening that so much time has passed and still less-than-nothing is forthcoming from the federal government, unless you count those unwanted storm troopers being sent to selected American cities."
And:
And:
by Jill Richardson | July 24, 2020 - 5:47am | permalink
Excerpt:
"When he can’t pretend everything is fine, he blames the Chinese. But China is not responsible for Trump’s botched response to the pandemic. Now the Trump administration is actively interfering with the pandemic response.
Hospitals have been instructed to send COVID data to a central database in Washington, bypassing the Centers for Disease Control (CDC). The information will no longer be accessible to the public, raising concern that the data is being hidden for political reasons and the lack of transparency will make it easier for the administration to mislead the public.
The administration is also blocking CDC director Dr. Robert Redfield from testifying before Congress about the safety of reopening schools. They are attempting to block GOP senators from allocating billions of dollars to the CDC, Pentagon, and State Department for pandemic response. And the administration even opposes sending billions to states for testing and contact tracing.
Trump’s message to states has largely been “you’re on your own,” declining a national leadership role and placing responsibility for handling the pandemic on the states. He’s also suggested that governors should “treat him well” to receive federal aid, using the pandemic as a bargaining chip to silence dissent from governors who disagree with him."
He goes on to tell the WSJ (ibid.)
"In all of the years I've been here in Las Vegas I've never felt more gloomy than I do today about what's happening in Las Vegas short term."
In essence, he said, all the Strip's resorts are now "running like a regional casino operator relying on nearby gamblers driving in."
In other words, the thousands of Vegas visitors who'd normally arrive daily by air to fill the resorts and casinos (like when we were there) are no longer doing so. (Again largely driven by fear of infection associated with getting on a plane.) So in Las Vegas now it's all local folk or none at all. No casino can survive for long in a restrictive (and artificial) bubble like that. Again, public -customer confidence dictates the economic register and that is determined by the fear (or not) of the virus. As long as we refuse to contain it - which means pursuing rigorous methods - we will not make headway.
The lessons, some of which are restated here (also in terms of the economic blowback), are summed in one takeaway:
There will be no going back to any kind of normality or vibrant economy until we get this virus under control.
And that does not mean each manjack doing his or her own thing, or blowing off the experts. It means pulling together as my folks and their generation did during World War II. No whining, no bitching or fighting with store workers - just putting on the big boy pants and acting like responsible adults for once! As opposed to toddlers in need of their personal sippy cups.
See Also:
As parents realize how badly the U.S. botched the next school year, we’re furious
And:
Excerpt:
"It is sickening that we mostly still can't find out if we're sick, can't get tested until it's often very late in this deadly game that is no game at all. It is sickening to inventory ourselves daily for symptoms, to attempt to self-diagnose without the tools to do so. It is sickening that we are told things that are later rescinded, or that the leader of our nation insists on spreading so much misinformation. It is sickening we can't get those tests we need, and it is sickening that so much time has passed and still less-than-nothing is forthcoming from the federal government, unless you count those unwanted storm troopers being sent to selected American cities."
And:
And:
by Jill Richardson | July 24, 2020 - 5:47am | permalink
Excerpt:
"When he can’t pretend everything is fine, he blames the Chinese. But China is not responsible for Trump’s botched response to the pandemic. Now the Trump administration is actively interfering with the pandemic response.
Hospitals have been instructed to send COVID data to a central database in Washington, bypassing the Centers for Disease Control (CDC). The information will no longer be accessible to the public, raising concern that the data is being hidden for political reasons and the lack of transparency will make it easier for the administration to mislead the public.
The administration is also blocking CDC director Dr. Robert Redfield from testifying before Congress about the safety of reopening schools. They are attempting to block GOP senators from allocating billions of dollars to the CDC, Pentagon, and State Department for pandemic response. And the administration even opposes sending billions to states for testing and contact tracing.
Trump’s message to states has largely been “you’re on your own,” declining a national leadership role and placing responsibility for handling the pandemic on the states. He’s also suggested that governors should “treat him well” to receive federal aid, using the pandemic as a bargaining chip to silence dissent from governors who disagree with him."
