Thursday, January 17, 2019

The Moral Hazard Of Appeasing Trump - And Why Pelosi Is Correct To "Disinvite" Him To The House For SOTU


The  Swine and thug holding the nation hostage must not be rewarded for his terrorism.  Nancy Pelosi is correct to disinvite him to the House for the State of the Union - and no 'security' pretext is needed. If he wants to deliver it, let him either drop his terrorist extortion - or do so from a Senate backroom toilet.


"There have been many policy disasters over the course of U.S. history. It’s hard, however, to think of a calamity as gratuitous, an error as unforced, as the current federal shutdown.

Nor can I think of another disaster as thoroughly personal, as completely owned by one man. When Donald Trump told Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi, “I will be the one to shut it down,” he was being completely accurate — although he went on to promise that “I’m not going to blame you for it,” which was a lie."  Paul Krugman,  'Donald Trump and His Team Of Morons', NY Times

"Trump is not entirely to blame.  The United States Senate could take up legislation that it passed just a few weeks ago, that they thought was a good idea, to open government and continue this debate over how we exercise border security. Why not do that? I blame the Senate. I blame those who are essentially handing over their responsibility to the president. Mitch McConnell has made Donald Trump the majority leader of the United States Senate. -  Rep. Dan Kildee (MI), last night on 'All In'.

"Donald Trump has apparently outsourced his presidency to the notoriously anti-immigrant Ann Coulter, as she bragged about it in an interview last night."  - Chris Hayes on 'All In' last night

According to the Wikipedia online encyclopedia, "moral hazard" is defined as arising:

" When an individual or institution does not take the full consequences and responsibilities for its actions, and therefore has a tendency to act less carefully than it otherwise would, leaving another party to hold some responsibility for the consequences of those actions"

For example, if after days of pleading for "a few extra bucks",  I were to lend a friend $40, and he used it for gambling at a Sports Book, then: a) he isn't accepting the full consequences of his own poor money management and decisions, and b) he will treat my $40 less carefully say - than if he was really down to his last nickel and had to go and earn that money, in say five hours of 'sweat equity' flipping burgers at Mickey D's.

In addition, he leaves me holding some of the responsibility for his ill-chosen actions, since I am enabling them by giving him money! Thus, I am countenancing moral hazard and he is ensnared via my own ill-considered decision to "help" him to dodge full responsibility for his own individual choices.


The situation becomes more desperate and pregnant with moral hazard if - after being denied a loan- he vows to jump in front of a passing car.  He's now ratcheted up the stakes and worse, tried to  take me hostage, by putting the onus on me for his living, or not.

In a real way, he's no longer a friend but has become a psychological extortionist - even terrorist-  instead. 

This is no different to what Trump is doing now with this federal shutdown - except he is promising to take the whole nation with him as he dives off the precipice   And already we see the risk markers in abundance, as 40,000 Coast Guard members are now without paychecks along with TSA screeners,  air traffic controllers,  IRS employees and many others. Many of these are now having to visit food pantries, and a mere weeks from being evicted from homes or apartments.

Should this piece of pseudo-presidential shit be rewarded with a State of the Union address in the House of Representatives, where he can sashay in as if nothing is wrong and be accorded a respect he doesn't merit? Worse, be granted the media stage to belch the lie that "The State of the Union is sound, blah blah..."  Absolutely not! He must not be given the time to grandstand for his derelict base, his sycophants, and his overseers in the Reich media machine - namely Ann Coulter and Rush Limbaugh.

This is the same reason the Dems must never yield to this degenerate and give billions for his fucking, stupid border wall. Because as one Dem Senator confided to MSNBC's Chris Hayes: "We won't move. We cannot. If this works for Trump the country will border on ungovernable."  Meaning,   having won in this hostage taking showdown he will use the same game of shutdown 'chicken' again and again, i.e. when the debt ceiling deliberations come up or for any other appropriations bill.   In Times' columnist Michelle Goldberg's take, "Trump would be completely unbound in using this tool".  

It would be as if my 'friend' used the "suicide or gimme a loan" gambit every time on me. To unplug the moral hazard my only option is to tell the friend, 'do what you want, I am not lending you a red cent'.  In the same way, Dems cannot give Trump and his Reich cohort a dime for his mythical wall to embolden them to shut the government down in the next budget kerfuffle.

Thus, no matter how much devastating crap is going on Trump must not be appeased !  It is true there is increasing collateral damage from Trump's political terror and  hostage taking. We know 800,000 federal employees are either at home or working without pay on "furlough", but that's merely the tip of the iceberg.  Another 3-4 million contract workers are also not being paid.  Whole towns - like Ogden, Utah - are also being adversely affected and may have to pull back services because tax receipts are vanishing since their resident federal workers can't spend without incomes. 

While I can certainly sympathize with all of these Trump victims, they are basically in the same position as hostages taken by a demented terrorist.  Sadly, this terrorist cannot be rewarded any more than if it was a high level ISIS vermin who'd taken prisoners.  That means, above all, the Democrats cannot give into his insane demands, not now, not ever.  However long this thing drags on, it is up to Trump and the Republicans to end it.   

How bad can things get?  Yesterday's Denver Post featured a litany of the ills that are yet to come if this shutdown lasts beyond February, including:



- 38 million losing their food stamps when the SNAP program runs aground from lack of funding.  This loss of food stamp funding alone would strip at least 0.53% from the GDP.

-The Department of Housing and Urban Development  has said it will not be able to renew 1, 150 rental assistance contracts with private land lords that expired in December.  This means tens of thousands could be shoved into the streets.

-  Another 550 rental assistance contract expire in February affecting an additional 16,000 households.

- By March, subsidies for the great majority of contracts will end jeopardizing the vouchers (e.g. Sec. 8) used by 2.2 million low income households. This according to Sharon Parrott, a senior fellow at the Center of Budget and Policy Priorities.

- By end of March TSA screeners may walk off their jobs en masse leaving thousands of flight cancellations in their wake, especially if joined by the air traffic controllers (who have already filed a lawsuit against Trump's government.)    

 This little gem has already been dropped into the meme pool, as Robert Costa reported in the WaPo.  Costa noted a couple of Republican lawmakers confided that "the only way this breaks open is if TSA workers stay home and Americans get furious about their flights".  Well, maybe a certain class of Americans, the business passengers, as the WSJ reported last week.

As Sam Berger, a senior adviser at the Center for American Progress,  observed:  "Shutdowns don't get bad linearly, they get bad exponentially, the longer they go on."    

The problem is that too many of the conservo  persuasion are unable to process exponential increase, another reason they fail to grasp the peril of climate change-  which manifestations can increase exponentially, e.g. with forcing factors.

And smiling and gloating behind all the pain is the venomous, extremist bitch,  Ann Coulter, proud of the havoc she's wrought.  Coulter bragged in a VICE-TV interview she's been in regular communication with Trump  on Twitter. She actually confided to the reporter that she has him by the balls and regularly orders him to "play this out and focus on immigration."   Her own words from the interview:

"I've  been advising the president in my columns and in  my Twitter conversations -  that you're not allowed to know about  -   to play this out. To keep it focused on immigration.  As long as people are talking about immigration you are winning, Mr. President. But whatever happens, just build the wall."

Asked why Dotard's digging his heels in, Coulter replies:

"It's self preservation. Because he is dead in the water if he doesn't build that wall. Dead, dead, dead."

In other words, Donnie Dotard has become Ann Coulter's perpetual bitch.  As for all the federal workers impacted by the shutdown, many now having to turn to food pantries, the harpy had this to say to the VICE-TV reporter:

"It's very silly for the Democrats to hold up funding the government while they're weeping about federal employees with benefits: retirement plans, and vacation and sick leaves better than anyone watching this program has.

In other words, dismissing and denigrating all those federal workers, many of whom literally have her life in their hands. So much for gratitude.

Let me reiterate again that it is standard procedure among most law enforcement agencies not to reward terrorists or hostage takers with payouts.  That now includes Ann Coulter who seems to be dictating Trump's every move - if we are to believe her.  The reason is simple: Though the refusal to give in may likely cost lives, it is much worse to reward such vile behavior and encourage further hostage taking, terror in the future.  The exact same holds true with the current domestic terrorist named Donald Drumpf occupying the Oval Office. The selfsame mutt threatening all manner of mayhem - and even trying to blame the Dems for the deaths of two migrant kids.

Look, if this asshole truly wanted a wall for "security" - as political commentator Ezra Klein noted three weeks ago-   he'd have signed off on the $25 billion offered in 2017 as part of a DACA deal. He didn't do that, crapping all over the deal instead after the Right's screech monkeys blew a gasket.  Just like barely 3 weeks ago he saw himself  harshly criticized in the Reich media  by Limbuagh, Coulter, Ingraham & company and then turned around and crapped on a CR that was already voted on by 100-0 in the Senate and which he'd agreed to! He rejected the continuing resolution because a gaggle of right wing lowbrow apes and blowhards went apoplectic and called  him "gutless".    

The most amusing aspect is how the Trump terrorists are claiming Pelosi's disinvite move is a sign of "weakness" because she's afraid of giving Trump a mammoth media stage to "gain advantage". Well, true, but the issue is  gaining advantage by spewing lies, now approaching the 7,000 level according to the WaPo lie counter.   That said, the REAL weakness is on the Trump and McConnell hostage taking side, given they are now trying to split the House Dems - to no avail. (See e.g. 'White House Fails To Split Democrats'. WSJ,  yesterday, p. A5).  In addition, we know the Trump hostage takers are aware this "wall" is something most Americans - the sensible faction - don't want (cf.  'Trump's Pinned To A Wall Few Americans Want', WSJ,  p. A15, by William Galston). 

As Galston wrote at the end of his column: "The art of the deal isn't bludgeoning everyone else into submission. It's providing them incentives to give you what you value most."    

What Trump should be valuing most is not his  nutso  fantasy "wall" but his whole economy as well as the stock market he constantly brags about. As this shutdown insanity goes on and the collateral damage multiplies, chipping away at retail sales and shaking consumer confidence, he is looking at a major recession by year's end if not sooner.  Jamie Dimon has already predicted a zero growth in GDP this quarter and other financial experts assert we are looking into the maw of a financial disaster rivaling the one in 2008 if Dotard doesn't come to his senses.  

In the meantime, my only advice to Nancy Pelosi would be to drop the "security" ruse about stalling the State of the Union. Just come right out and say Dotard is NOT invited to the People's House until and unless he drops the terrorist hostage taking. Look at it this way, Nancy, we do not reward terrorists in the country - whether of the Isis brand or domestic ones like Trump, Ann Coulter and Mitch McConnell.

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