Let's get down to reality here, as Lexington notes in his recent Economist column ('Anger Management', Aug. 15, p. 24), , Trump doesn't stand a snowball's chance in hell of either getting nominated or becoming President in a 3rd party run. As Lex notes, Trump's only claim to fame is being a "splenetic and bombastic property tycoon". The only reason he's riding the polls so high is - again according to Lexington - because he has "grassroots conservative followers" who only measure success by anger and blowhard Trump delivers it in spades.
These Trumpite follower blowhards - also with their own anger management problems (according to Lex)- remain sure:
"that Obama is bent on destroying their country and cannot understand why Republican leaders have not done more to thwart his agenda despite controlling both chambers of congress. They are reluctant to accept that governing in a large, messy democracy involves compromise, or that the concerns of hard core conservatives do not always enjoy majority support."
The last sentence is especially important, and indeed, if this was a fascist Dictatorship with the GOOPs in charge, they'd have more leeway to do what they want. And Trump also would if he surmounted all odds (about the same as aliens landing on the WH lawn) to be nominated President and then win the general election. But it isn't going to happen because Bernie Sanders has more chance of attaining the Oval office. Bernie Sanders, think of him what you will, has an actual policy agenda that is realizable and do-able.
Trump's policies as Lexington mocks, are "a mess of boastfulness and absurdity" such as his plan for ISIS ("we go in knock them the hell out and take the oil") which truly, only a bright kindergartner would applaud or believe attainable. Meanwhile, his daft plan to send all immigrant kids back to Mexico - who were born here - would require repeal of the 14th amendment. The cost to send all Mexicans back is estimated at up to $200b. None of his dopey, angry bird followers appear to process any of this.
The second point on "majority support" is also relevant. As none other than Karl Rove noted in a WSJ op -ed five weeks ago, the latest tally of political identification shows conservatives have fallen from 36% of the population to 28 percent, and liberals (or progressives) have climbed from 26 % to 35 percent. Thus, it is absurd for conservatives to believe any of their nutty proposals have a chance of passing with such an imbalance in the electorate. Unless, of course, they can get enough moderates or independents to climb on board their nutso wagon. But given the Donald's very high unfavorables (59 percent by one recent poll) outside of his Trumpster gaggle, that isn't very likely.
As Lexington also points out, noting the divide between serious voters and Trumpsters:
"Some Trump fans simply relish the skunk-at-the picnic aspects of Trump's presidential bid. They do not care that his policy platform is a mess of boastfulness and absurdity."
This is spot on and is somewhat akin to a mean-spirited schadenfreude. But in this case the level of political insight is about at the level of a kindergartner who laughs when his teacher accidentally sits down on a 'pooper cushion' that a wicked kid has placed on her seat.
It's gross, cruel and the kids love it. But they're kids, about five years old, and to some degree can be excused for their kid-brained prank. After all, they've not yet reached the age of reason. As for adults, we expect them to have more common sense and sobriety, especially in the national political arena.
Trump has no chance to win, no matter what his groupies might believe, because first, loyal Repubs are outraged (as Lex notes) that he wouldn't agree to the pledge put forward at the last debate. The Red State gathering in Atlanta, in fact, has viewed Trump as beyond despicable because of this disloyalty. (Ibid.)
If Trump runs as a 3rd party candidate, meanwhile, he runs the risk of peeling off just enough support from the Repuke candidate to hand the election to Hillary or Bernie.
As for winning the general, no way in hell. The trouble for Trumpsters is that their numbers are more than outweighed by sane, serious voters, as opposed to their own 'skunk -at -a picnic' types.
The true and relevant question isn't whether Trump will win, because he won't. It is as Lexington put it:
"When Republicans ditch Donald Trump how will they confront his supporters?"
My suggestion, for what it's worth? Give the Trumpsters a prescription for a really good anti-psychotic or better yet free passes to a sanitarium. They will need it!
http://www.smirkingchimp.com/thread/jaime-oneill/63502/donald-trump-s-song-of-himself
http://www.smirkingchimp.com/thread/robert-c-koehler/63496/the-donald-s-inclusive-racism
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