Monday, February 3, 2014

The Upcoming Debate Featuring Bill Nye vs. Creationist Ken Ham: Will It Really Be A Waste of Time?

As many of us in the science community are aware, Bill Nye and Ken Ham will be debating creationism on Feb. 4,  and most of us are truly hoping that Bill shoves Ham's creationist codswallop right down his throat - and then some. We are sick and tired of having a debate that ought to have been settled nearly 90 years ago with the Scopes trial. Haven't the fundies and their brethren nitwits learned yet that it's over, as in case closed? Evidently not, and none other than scribe Sean McElwee makes a case - on salon.com - that Nye is likely wasting his time.

Having had 12 major debates with assorted creationists since 1974 (when I was called upon to debate a Scripture teacher on evolution in my 3rd year as a biology -chemistry teacher and Peace Corps volunteer) McElwee may be right.  It seems the other side is always too inured to reason and scientific argument to make a dent. They are citing their Bible quotes, while you are citing Darwin's Origin of Species or his later book on human evolution. So inevitably, the debate ends up only for 'show' since you're not going to change a diehard religious believer's mind (though we will soon see why much more enters into it). The question is 'Why not?'


McElwee argues any debate is a "bad idea for both scientists and Christians".  He notes that Ham’s young-earth creationism "represents the distinct tendency of American Christian fundamentalists to reject science and use their religion to defend economic ideas, environmental degradation and anti-science extremism."  In other words, the conservative ideological position itself requires this contrarian dynamic to clothe itself in a kind of protective mantle vs. the 'kyrptonite' of scientific inquiry.  To do otherwise is to invite massive defeat across the board, from evolution to global warming to economic theory. (Forever slaying the damnable perversion of Darwin's natural selection via Herbert Spencer's Social Darwinism)

In other words, Ham and his cohort know their asses are beaten to a pulp - but they keep the act up of "unsettled science", or "disputed findings" because they have no other option. That's the only wicket open and despite the fact it's a losing one, it's the only one that postpones their capitulation.

McElwee's point that the vast majority of right-wing Christian fundamentalists in the U.S. are evangelicals,  or followers of an offshoot of Protestantism, is a good one for two reasons. First, it shows these people are outliers since there are still vastly more non-evangelical Protestants in the world - offering some counter point of sanity. Second, not all evangelicals are as nutty as the most extreme fundies. This is one reason that author Susan Jacoby advised calling out the extremist fundies so they can't hide behind the more moderate "evangelical" front.

As she points out, this bland generic term can encompass “both theological liberals and conservatives”[1]. Hence, it is a disservice to forward- thinking evangelicals to conflate them with a regressive cultist group that would dispatch them to Hell as it does Jews, Roman Catholics, Mormons, and non-fundamentalist Protestants. It is also important not to be so cowardly in the use of terms, because in order to recognize the reach of the Religious Right one needs to know exactly what part of the ideological spectrum is subsumed and pandered to, by the likes of Ralph Reed, Albert Mohler, Jr.,  Pat Robertson and others.

The problem with U.S. Fundyism, as Richard Hofstadter once pointed out in his classic on Social Darwinism (Social Darwinism in American Thought, American Historical Association, 1955) , is that it became even more perverted by linking up with Herbert Spencer's Social Darwinism - on top of its excessive, aberrant individualism. Once it did so, it lost all claims to providing a moral foundation for anything or anyone and mutated to a cult - like Jim Jones' "People's Temple" in Guyana.  As it tethered its goals to those of American capitalism, it lost even more moral capital, until today it's nothing but a chimera or shell  - that serves only as a vehicle to exploit the Densan portion of the populace. 

But this plays into why Nye's debate of Ken Ham may not be advisable. The hard fact is that on account of its anti-intellectual basis, American Christian right-wing fundamentalism distrusts all experts and inevitably inveighs against their influence. Thus, in every debate, they will seek to frame it in a way to unbalance the expert holding an opposite view to their creationist/ ID stance. But this stance isn't informed by "faith" - which is the point missed by eager secular debaters.  Rather, the Social Darwinian, individualistic political and economic views are imposed on Scripture, which is often read without theological rigor. It is not religion that is the problem, but rather the use of religion as an ideological weapon.

Nowhere was this more in evidence than in a debate I attended back in 1986 on 'Creationism vs. Evolution'. ). The presenter was none other than Duane Gish - then of the Institute of Creation Research. (See advert  below- still preserved from the date it appeared: Feb. 19, 1986)


Evidently Gish had invited members of the science staff (any of them) based at The Geophysical Institute (affiliated with the University of Alaska-Fairbanks) to debate him. All of them declined. On being notified of this, Gish commented:

"It's rather strange that they wouldn't be prepared to support evolutionary debate because they teach it year in and year out. If it's supported by the scientific evidence then it should be a simple thing to do".


However, the professional scientists at the Geophysical Institute. were not amused. The Head of the UAF Biology Dept., Stephan McLean noted (from The University of Alaska Sunstar campus newspaper that also reported Gish's comments):

"I refuse to get involved personally in debating this issue. In any case, the question that was put forward was extremely biased. The creationist side chose the topic, booked the hall, and made the rules - then invited this very skilled person. The way it was structured allowed the creationist advocate to take the offensive and put the evolutionist on the defensive".

Then Director of the G.I., Professor Juan G. Roederer was less polite:


"These individuals are simply impostors. They essentially base their arguments on a distorted or outright falsified interpretation of existing scientific fact.”


 True to form, the "rules" allowed freelancing by Gish, and he exploited them to clown around with specious, irrelevant illustrations ("Anyone here have a grandma that used to be a gorilla?") that totally misrepresented the evolution position. In any genuine formal setting, he'd have been hooted out, but his semi-educated audience ate it up. There is no reason, of course, that this time of farce couldn't be repeated - especially if the creationist side is losing.

All of which suggests, that the best way to confront these ideologues may not be by engaging them in debate, as the Univ. of Alaska scientists showed. The reason is that the religious right’s stance on climate change, economics and evolution isn't informed by their religious beliefs, but by secondary political -economic dynamics. If one doesn't address them, therefore, he or she will only be wasting time in a futile dialectic.

 
The best way to address the problem is to confront the underlying political and economic concerns that are obscured by religious dogma, rather than attacking the religion directly. Attacking directly will only harden the positions of the followers of the religions, and make them even more averse to accepting the words of them thar pointy -headed intellectuals.


 The job of an astute debater then, would be to point out that our problems require an entirely new political and economic paradigm,:  one that rests on understanding and empathetic action between people of all faiths or none at all.  I touched on this sort of holistic approach in my recent book, Beyond Atheism, Beyond God. The beauty of it is that it enfolds not only our deleterious environmental and climate issues, but also those of economic inequality and corporate power.

Religious reformers, concerned environmentalists, scientists and economists must work together toward a more sustainable and equitable  future. Bill Nye is intensely concerned about climate change and evolution, as are we all. However, I suspect he could make more headway by allying himself with progressive religious leaders to combat entrenched knuckle-dragger political, economic memes rather than debate fundamentalists - who will never alter their minds based on a debate. They can't because they understand that the political and economic identities which they uphold are more important, and they require the religious smokescreen to provide cover. In this case, any debate will inevitably prove futile.
 
 


[1] Jacoby: The Age of American Unreason.,188.

Lessons from a SuperBowl Blowout

Broncos fans express dismay during the first half of Super Bowl XLVIII at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, N.J., on Sunday.
"The slime green on his Seattle uniform is nastier than cornerback Richard Sherman. If he's the toughest thing the Seahawks have on their side, Denver will win the Super Bowl by two touchdowns" - Mark Kiszla - Denver Post . Jan. 29

"Compared to the cockroaches under the sink of a double-wide that sat a few miles east of the Mississippi River, Sherman is as cuddly as a pussycat.....There's the bottom line: Sherman isn't a tough guy. But he will play one on television for 15 seconds, " - Mark Kiszla, Denver Post, Jan. 29

 Broncos' fans are still in a state of shell shock after yesterday's shellacking by the Seattle SeaHawks. They somehow made the error of conflating how 'Murica "feels" about a team - 70 percent favored the Broncos after Richard Sherman's rant 2 weeks ago - for actually winning the biggest game of the year.  They felt having a dopey, half--clued in nation of "fans" behind them would secure the Lombardi trophy. They were wrong.

As I predicted at the end of the previous blog (a 34-17 blowout by Seattle) this wasn't going to happen. Seattle's D had quietly stewed all week long as the dumb national media coronated  Peyton Manning and his "legacy" even before a single play of the game. Peyton was the good guy while Richard Sherman (according to dumbass Sen. John McCain) was the "snarling face of Seattle".  He would not realize how much more fuel he gave the Hawks as they laid plans to lay waste to Peyton, the Ponies, and all the dumb Americans who hopped onto the Denver bandwagon.

But perhaps no one delivered more 'fuel' than the Denver Post's resident moron, Mark Kiszla, who still hasn't learned to keep his computer keys and yap shut before big games. Recall that before last year's AFC divisional playoff  Kiszla outdid himself with insults against Ray Lewis and the "over the hill" Ravens. The outcome? The Ravens knocked the Ponies from the Playoffs in a double overtime victory.

Anyway, let's  look at some lessons to take away after his blowout, which rivals some of the worst in SuperBowl history:

1) Don't buy into the media hype leading up to the Big Game.

As assorted pundits wail about the "hype" and how the game never lived up to expectations, they need only look at themselves in the mirror to find who to blame. Following the Richard Sherman rant 2 weeks ago, the callow media immediately jumped on the national bandwagon to stand with the "good guys" and against those "bad, evil Seattle 'thugs'". The rancor got worse when -  in a follow up interview - Richard Sherman said that using the word 'thug' on him (via tweets) was as bad as the 'N-word.' Then John McCain stepped in and added more ignominy, asserting that "decent Americans" would support Denver. Polls appeared to suggest this, with 70 percent preferring a Broncos' win in the SuperBowl.

Meanwhile, to echo this meme, the national sports media (except in Seattle)   drank the kool aid and kept repeating that hey, in this era of high octane offense, with the rules the way they were, there was just no way - no way at all, Seattle could prevail over the number one O in the nation. Especially with Peyton Manning at the helm, who'd already been named MVP and Offensive Player of the year.

So, along with  dissing any Seattle chance to win, the media endlessly sang the praises of Peyton's accomplishments  during the week. Meanwhile, Seattle's players stewed and ramped up their anger, not only at being ignored but at being the "villains" in the piece. They quickly adopted an 'Us against the world' mindset, similar to what the Baltimore Ravens did in 2000 (after Ray Lewis became an issue on Media Day, and coach Brian Billick refused to answer questions about him.). The Ravens went on to pound the NY Giants 34-7.


2)  Great Defenses Will Always Better Great Offenses

The NFL has tried to jury rig the rules to favor offenses, but as the SuperBowl result showed, this doesn't work if a team has a truly high caliber defense: one that's physical, preternaturally fast, furious and prepared to hit on every play. THAT was the D Seattle brought to the game, and Denver simply wasn't prepared for it.  The statement play, as observed by Eric Davis on NFL AM this morning was undoubtedly Kam Chancellor smashing Demaryius Thomas on a crossing route. Thomas was hit so hard that he likely had to check his teeth after, to make sure they were all still there.

As Davis noted, "the message was that you can try to cross over the middle, but you will pay a toll, and it will be paid each time you try."  The Broncos receivers got the message and were wussified by the specter of being tattooed each time - and they played like it.

An excellent A -class defense also finishes, and this is what Seattle did. They didn't go to a "prevent" defense after they were up 43-8, nor did they allow a cheap cosmetic TD at the end,  which drives many of us crazy when our teams do that crap. 

Before the SuperBowl, the media yappers kept repeating how Seattle "had never faced an offense as potent as the Broncos" - but they forgot the Broncs played in the AFC, and truly - I would not put their Offense even on the same level as the Niners or Saints. Sure they chopped up New England and San Diego in the playoffs - but let's bear in mind NE was missing most of their star defensive players (e.g. NT Vince Wilfork), and San Diego was hurting too. Meanwhile, Seattle arrived at the SB healthy and ready.

Bottom line: a top tier defense with all its players healthy will beat a top tier offense- even in this era where the NFL has tried to ensure the "offense" rules..


3) Showboating Isn't a Substitute for Superb Play

I had to laugh when the Broncos players were introduced, preceded by the team's mascot 'Thunder' (shipped specially to NY for the SuperBowl) ridden out from the stadium entrance in a flourish of flares and booms.  This setup - as we learned in The Denver Post- was part and parcel of the massive expectation of a Broncos' win. It was meant to intimidate the other guys, and maybe turn them into wussies. Didn't work out that way! About ten minutes later, in the first play from scrimmage, the snap from Manny Ramirez bounced past Manning into the end zone for a safety. To many Broncos' fans it signified the beginning of the end.

Denver's showboating and pre-game fanfare rated an 'A-plus' but it didn't count against a ferocious defense when the actual game commenced.


4) Seattle's 12th Man Traveled - and Made an Impact.

It was truly amusing before the game to watch videos on The Denver Post website bragging how they were in greater abundance in the stands than the Seattle fans. One guy decked out in Bronco orange bragged in his video that he estimated a 3 to 1 advantage.  Alas, as Denver took the ball first (after Seattle deferred) the crowd noise was almost deafening. The SEATTLE fans thereby made their presence known and likely caused the miscommunication that resulted in the first snap from scrimmage going awry - giving Seattle a safety.  This misplay set the tone for the rest of the game. (In a post game news conference, Peyton Manning blamed the noise for the foul up)


5) What Denver Has to Do To Win A 3rd SuperBowl

From the evidence of this game, the Broncos will need to pay much more attention to building their D, to at least remotely emulating Seattle's. That means aiming for a defense marked by punishing hitters endowed with tremendous speed.  Youth emphasis helps and that means aged guys like Champ Bailey will have to hit the road, for guys with the skills, speed of Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor.

Seattle's swarming defense at the line was impressive - ganging up on RBs, and ball stripping-  as much as delivering powerful hits on the WRs in crossing routes, and their DBs covering every play, preventing long passes. Many teams, including the Packers and Ravens, will be studying Seattle's defense in the hope of building one like it, but most will fail because of a number of reasons, including salary cap issues (the Ravens are limited by the $120m contract to Flacco, and the Pack is limited by a similar mega- contract to Aaron Rodgers, plus $60m to LB Clay Matthews).


Will these lessons be learned in time for the next Big Game? One hopes so, but knowing the short memory of most of the media - as well as most Americans - don't be surprised if they aren't.

Sunday, February 2, 2014

Are Football Fans Immoral If They Watch the Superbowl? NO!

















Mr. Almond asks: "Am I absolutely moral if I watch the Superbowl?"  The Cube doth reply, 'No!'  


According to Steve Almond, in last Sunday's New York Times magazine ('A Fan's Farewell Note', p. 44), those of us who tune in to watch the Superbowl today  will be de facto moral reprobates. Or at least accomplices to an immoral industry and sport. Almond reminds us that the evidence is now incontestable that "catastrophic brain injury" occurs "routinely" as part of the game, and this puts fans in a "morally queasy position". According to Almond:

"We not only tolerate this brutality, we sponsor it just by watching at home."

Huh? How do I "sponsor" it if I am merely a passive spectator, especially if my team isn't even in it - so I haven't purchased any gear - like sweatshirts or team caps from Nfl.com?  All we ordinary fans are doing is enjoying what promises to be a memorable sports event with the Number one ranked defense in Seattle vs. the No. 1 ranked offense in Denver?

Mr. Almond does agree to the game's popularity and he admits that he's aware "more than 100 million will watch the game" and "most of my friends will be parked in front of their TVs" - but he adds that he won't be among them. Oh no! He is making his statement to stand against NFL- promoted brutality and will not be among them. This is his swan song to the game ...a "fan's farewell."

Well, more power to you, dude, but don't expect many of us to join you! What is Almond's problem? In his own words, it's that he "can no longer indulge "(the pleasures of viewing great plays) because he "feels complicit" when he does.  I can't explain that kind of thinking, because it makes no sense - it's almost like "sympathetic magic" . How can you feel "complicit" if you don't really control any of the game's directions or fortunes? That's attributing way more power to the fans than they're capable of.

To his credit, Almond does concede there are two "rationalizations" that NFL fans invoke to defend their sport: 1)The NFL is working to make the game safer, and 2) All players CHOOSE to incur the game's risks and are lavishly compensated for doing so.

Almond asserts that excuse (1) is "flimsy at best" - since for years the league denied any neurological damage as a result of hard hits. (Well, we know this! That was part of the popularity of the sport, hence the success of videos like "NFL's Hardest Hits').  The problem is, as the NFL has kowtowed to the nervous Nellies, and helmet to helmet hits have been disallowed, as well as other hits that ordinarily were ok in the olden days - players are now going for the legs. So, in striving for  a putative safety in one area, players end up often losing their careers on account of leg injuries from which they're unable to return.

This brings up (2) which Almond acknowledges is "technically true".  Indeed, even the lowest rung "utility"  or "practice squad" players on an NFL team earn vastly more than high school algebra teachers- which is the REAL immorality - if Almond truly wishes to find such. It shows how inverted the nation's priorities are. So, given this inversion something has to 'give'  in terms of offset. There has to be some element in this highly remunerated  NFL game that warrants the mega-salaries or even vastly larger salaries than benefit the hoi polloi.  That is the risk of specific kinds of injuries- which ALL players have to know about before they sign on.

This game isn't croquet after all! The very nature of the game , i.e. in asking two sets of 11 large sized men to confront and stop each other,  calls for violence!  You're not going to stop the other guy across from you by calling him names!  Also, contrary to myth, football can be violent even in its tag or flag variation. When I attended Monsignor Pace High (1962-64) there was no varsity or other tackle football team yet - but we did have intramural tag teams. I played inside LB for one such intramural team - and my job was to sack the quarterback. I loved it. And be aware that on every down that meant crashing through blocks of the O-line using arms, elbows. That meant you sported bruises after each game, though maybe not concussions.

Given this, it's ludicrous for Almond to also take issue with the sport as played "by kids with limited options" - who then look on the NFL as their path to "riches and glory".  But see, it is the parents' job to temper their kids' expectations and let them know that only 1 of every 5,000 HS players will make it to the NFL. And only 1 of every 150 of those will reach true celeb status, including the million dollar endorsement deals and other perks. The parents are the ones that have to impart the reality, not the NFL.

In the end, I plan to enjoy the game today with my brats, beer, burgers, chips and dips. Almond can go to his computer and/or read a book if he wants to.

As to how the game will play out - I detect a seething Seahawks team, especially angry after Earl Thomas and Richard Sherman were snubbed for top defense honors - and eager to prove something after Peyton Manning has held center stage all week.  My prediction:

Seattle 34 Denver 17

Saturday, February 1, 2014

Solutions to Complex Integral Additional Problems





1) ∫ -¥  ¥    sin x dx / (x2   + 2x + 4)


In terms of f(z) we can write:


f(z)=  exp(iz)   dz / (z2  - 2z + 4)

so the integral becomes:


∫ -¥  ¥    exp(iz)   dz / (z2  - 2z + 4)


Factor f(z) to get:

exp(iz)   dz / (z2  - 2z + 4) =    exp(iz)/ (z + 1 - iÖ3) (z + 1 + iÖ3)

 
Then singularities (poles ) occur at:

z= -1 + -iÖ3   and z = -1  -iÖ3
Therefore:
Res f(z) =  lim z ® 1+iÖ3       [exp(iz)/ (z + 1 + iÖ3)]
=  exp i(- 1+ -iÖ3)/  2iÖ3   =   exp(-i) exp(-Ö3) / 2i Ö3   exp (-Ö3)
But recall exp (-i) = sin(-1) =  -sin (1)  so that:
Res f(z) = - sin(1)/ 2i Ö3   exp (-Ö3)
Then:


∫ -¥  ¥    exp(iz)   dz / (z2  - 2z + 4)  =
2 pi [- sin(1)/ 2i Ö3   exp (-Ö3)]  =    -pi [- sin(1)/ Ö3   e-Ö3  ]
=  ∫ -¥  ¥    sin x dx / (x2   + 2x + 4)
Note: this soln. is for  the upper half plane. To modify the development for the case where the singularity is in the lower half plane, or m < 0 (i.e. m = -i) then we have:
∫ -¥  ¥    exp(im x)  f(x) dx  = - 2 pi Ã¥ (Res)
(See e.g. the accompanying graphic. Note that  in the lower graphic, that should be - i Ö3   along the Im -axis)

2)  ∫ -¥  ¥    cos x dx / (x4     +  1)

To obtain singularities:


x4     +  1 = 0   or  x4     =   -1

Then: x =   (-1)1/4 = (-1 + 0i) 1/4

=   4Ö1 [cos (p + 2kp/ 4) + isin((p + 2kp/ 4)]

For k= 0: 

(-1)1/4 =   cis(p/ 4) =  exp (ip/ 4)

For k=1:


(-1)1/4 =   cis(3p/ 4) =  exp (i3p/ 4)
Both poles are in the upper half plane (see e,g, diagram for Jan. 27 post)
The above are associated with two simple poles, for which:
Res f(z) z = exp pi/4       =   lim z ® exp pi/4      exp(iz)  / 4 z3     =
 exp(- p/4) / 4 exp(3pi/4) =  exp(- p/4) /  2Ö2 – 2iÖ2  =
exp(- p/4) /  2Ö2 (1– i)
And:
Res f(z) z = exp 3pi/4       =   lim z ® exp 3pi/4      exp(iz)  / 4 z3     =
 exp(- 3p/4) / 4 [exp(3pi/4)] 3 =  exp(- 3p/4) / 4 exp(7pi/4)
=  exp(- 3p/4) / 4[ cos(9p/4) + i sin(9p/4)]
=  exp(- 3p/4) /  2Ö2 + 2iÖ2  =    exp(- 3p/4) /  2Ö2 (1 +i)
Finally:
∫ -¥  ¥    exp(iz) dz / (z4     +  1)  =
 2 pi [exp(- p/4) /  2Ö2 (1– i)  +    exp(- 3p/4) /  2Ö2 (1 +i) ]
= ∫ -¥  ¥    cos x dx / (x4     +  1)

Barbados' Bond Position worsens...What's Next?















One year ago (Feb. 18 post, 'Is Barbados Soon to go the way of Greece') I noted that Barbados bonds were downgraded to junk by Moody's six odd months after Standard and Poor's did the same. I added that these events were disturbing in the extreme, given the island nation had been on a downward trend since I last visited in 2010.

The downgrade lowered the country’s foreign and local currency bond ratings to Ba1 from Baa3. (note: a junk bond, is defined as one that is “below investment grade” due to a heightened risk of default, is any bond with a rating of Ba1/BB+ or lower, according to the system used by Moody’s.) Moody’s  accompanying statement held that Barbados’ outlook remained negative, and cited two factors in the downgrade: Barbados’ “continuing lackluster economic performance,” and “ongoing deterioration in the government’s debt metrics.”

Adding to the concerns, was the fact that Barbados’ economy grew by 0.6 percent in 2011 and 0.2 percent through September of 2012, well below expectations. Meanwhile, The United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America  projected  the country’s GDP to improve in 2013 with a rate of 1 percent . Much of this obviously can be traced to the U.S. recession.

SO what has transpired in the interim? Barely three months ago (Nov. 5) I cited a report in the Barbados NATION (THREE DEVALUATION OPTIONS)  that reported on three options (internal, external and fiscal) for devaluation presented by the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB). The two with the most heft were "internal" and fiscal"- meaning across the board cuts in civil servants' pay (or numbers) or actual currency devaluation.

Earlier last month we learned for the first time of hundreds having been laid off in assorted banks, among whom was my niece Trudi. This followed an earlier government announcement on Friday 13 December by the government of Barbados that it will lay-off over 3,000 public servants in January as a first step in cutting back government expenditure and reducing national demand for goods and services. The announcement rattled other Caribbean Community (CARICOM) members. Since then the Bim government has played it coy and mustered a waiting game, though all eyes remain fixed on further actions. Make no mistake that such a cut - representing more than eight percent of civil service manpower - would be catastrophic from many perspectives.

But it is clear, from an even more recent report out of the Barbados NATION  by Tony Best (Jan. 28) that something will have to be done, and if it isn't rendering civil servants redundant it likely will have to be currency devaluation. Both wifey and I dread this last step because it would mean a severe cut in our retirement income, depending on the magnitude of devaluation.  For example, a 100% devaluation would cut our income nearly one third. (100% devaluation would mean $1 BDS would be equal to $4 U.S. instead of $2 U.S. as is currently the case)

In the latest report (ibid.)  it appears the lowering of Barbados' bond quality in 2013 led the island's cognoscenti to dismiss the signs and portents  - basically resulting in ignoring  Wall Street’s call to action. Since then, Barbados’ bonds have declined to a current BB rating with a negative outlook .  This was described by Richard Francis, S&P’s lead analyst on Barbados, as three notches below investment grade, the lowest it has been in almost two decades. What’s worrisome is his warning that the country stands a one-in-three chance of seeing that rating downgraded again.

If it is, it could well be 'curtains' for those of us dreading massive layoffs in Bim (which will lower its life quality drastically, as well as probably increase crime rates) or currency devaluation which could have many of the same effects.  To underscore this Francis added that while Barbados’ credit rating “isn’t among the lowest of the low”  any further decline would make a bad situation worse and eventually hit Barbados in the pocketbook.

Best emphasized that "the reality should be clear" and added ominously:


"Chris Sinckler, Minister of Finance, went to the financial markets last year to borrow money to prop up declining foreign reserves but couldn’t get an acceptable offer and had to withdraw the bonds largely because of the credit rating.

Obviously, Wall Street’s message had reached potential bond investors and it was that the risk of Barbados’ defaulting on its bonds had increased and to get the money it needed, the island had to pay a “premium”. It’s that straightforward. There is a nexus between the rating, an indication of risk, and the interest rate a country pays".


Best went on to report that eventually Barbados obtained a Credit Suisse loan but the terms were horrendous. According to Aaron Freedman, a Moody's analyst, the "terms are of concern" - which is really an understatement.

How bad? The Moody's analyst cited "LIBOR plus 700 (basis points" - or essentially yields implying Bim's gov't is trading in the "secondary market".  LIBOR denotes the interbank interest rate - what banks allow each other- and 700 basis points is 7 percent on top of that.  The Moody's analyst was further quoted as saying:


“Obviously there is a significant premium risk that the Government is paying. That has direct fiscal implications. If your interest expense rises, it makes it that much more difficult to achieve fiscal consolidation. Interest expense already consumes a significant portion of the Budget. We were expecting it would be close to 30 per cent of Government revenues, which is one of the highest levels we have seen anywhere.”


Best observed that the analyst's point was underscored by a headline in a Bloomberg News story: Barbados Bonds At Record Yields As IMF [International Monetary Fund] Urges Restraint:


“Yields on Barbados’ 2021 dollar bonds were at a record 9.58 per cent at 12:16 p.m. New York Time [December 20[ and were up 33 basis points, or 0.03 percentage point, this week. The 2022 bonds trade at 9.61 per cent after rising to a record 9.64 per cent on December 18.”
 
Best adds that the decline in foreign reserves is the major reason for the record-high interest rates Barbados is paying on its bonds. Such a decline, which also occurred before the IMF intervention in 1991 (after Barbados attempted to emulate the Reagan tax cuts in 1986) essentially was accelerated when people with monetary interests in Bim (but living in the U.S.) began pulling money out - or existing residents tried to get money into U.S. banks to escape possible devaluation. But even before this, foreign reserves were dropping because of the island's continued massive importation, e.g. of food stuffs, as well as automobiles.

 I pointed such problems out in a blog back in May, 2010 ('Will Barbados Fall to the Sovereign Debt Crisis', Pts. 1 and 2). I wrote:

 "In terms of food, nearly all has to be imported and fuel costs add to the import costs. Bajans do grow a lot of their own, e.g. chickens for example, but it can't meet the island's demands. Autos, meanwhile,  clog the island's narrow highways and biways. Each also must be imported, as does petrol, and the costs of both are eating up precious capital"

What must be done? Best's words are stark and unforgiving but probably spot-on:


"Barbados has to take tougher action in order to stabilize its finances and boost its credibility. So, despite the statements by unions about layoffs and the delay in accelerating the layoff by two weeks, Government must go ahead with its plans."


Carl Rose, a managing director of Oppenheimer in Atlanta, quoted in Tony Best's piece, observed:
 
"The market's signal is clear: Barbados must implement its adjustment report quickly and forcefully.”

Tony's parting words?


"The Barbados Workers’ Union and National Union of Public Workers may shout and scream but more painful cuts, even beyond the initial 3 000 tranche of layoffs, are needed to protect the currency, cut the deficit and reduce the debt."

Let's hope the island's leaders, and its people, do the right thing to protect the country ....and soon!