Long Term COVID-19 Risks To The Economy And The Resulting Need To Recalculate One's Financial Security

The 'bloodbath' in the stock market yesterday may only be a harbinger of what is to come, not that Captain Dotard T. Bonespurs and his crew of idiots and lackeys would know.  They have continued to flaunt their utter incompetence in not only dealing with the novel coronavirus but with the economy as well. 

Meanwhile, the market shock yesterday (DOW plunging by 2, 013 pts.) , based also partly on the oil prices bottoming out to $31 a barrel, shows how unprepared too many are for the year - hell years- ahead.  Oil-energy specialist Dan Dickers -interviewed by Chris Hayes last night on 'All In' conceded the coming recession could be as bad or worse than the credit collapse 'great 'recession 10 years ago.

A lot of this has to do with the U.S. shale oil business being over-leveraged for the past five years at least. Thus, "tons of debt" (Dickers' parlance) has been issued with some $600 b "in triple B bonds or B minus bonds".    Given this, it's little wonder U.S. shale drillers can't beg, borrow or steal any credit now - say from the banks - to support their activities. (See e.g. 'Shale Drillers Face Fight For Survival As Prices Plummet', WSJ, today, p. B1).  Indeed Scott Sheffield (Pioneer Natural Resources CEO) estimates (ibid.):  "50 percent of public E&Ps will go bankrupt over the next two years."

Dickers estimates as much as $2 trillion could be out there with U.S. banks holding a lot of it (one reason the bank stocks were "murdered" in the bloodbath yesterday).   All of which points to mammoth liquidity problems in many ways analogous to what presaged the credit crisis 10 years ago.   Worse, "the Fed is now out of quivers".  

Trump has been able to hold up his fake economy - and overextend the life of the Bull (which Dickers insists is 3 years beyond terminal) -  by gimmicks such as tax cuts, deregulation and getting Jerome Powell's Fed to cut interest rates. But this is  about to end because of the COVID-19 pandemic (a term I use even if the WHO still refuses to).  As Dickers put it to Hayes:

"The coronavirus will be the straw that broke the camel's back of the global economy."

Here it is well to grasp the risks of this virus to the U.S. economy and indeed to the global economy which Ian Bremmer (TIME) even predicted would see the end of globalization.  These risks are mainly to the supply side and include:

- Cessation of commercial air travel in major areas as well as layoffs, hiring freezes, unpaid leave and reduction of flight schedules  (United has already asked a number of workers to take at least 6 months of unpaid leave, cf WSJ today, 'Fear of Flying Spawns Fresh Crisis For Airlines'', p. A1)

- Closures of restaurants, entertainment and sports centers as a result of lack of attendance.   Many of these rely on discretionary spending and foot traffic which will be at risk in the event of mass quarantines such as implemented in Italy. (As companies retrench, it affects workers and suppliers, which then have to tighten their own belts.Layoffs rise; wages decline. Consumers spend less. More businesses shutter.  A vicious circle.)

-  Collapse of energy-oil prices  leading to  bankruptcies and further mass layoffs in that sector. Especially major losses in shale fracking - which has been propelled in large measure by leveraging debt to continue flooding a world already glutted by oversupply  (Crude prices notched the largest one day decline since the great recession yesterday when Saudi Arabia went 'nuclear' by producing more oil after Russia failed to agree to cut production)

All the above aspects factor in what we call "network effects".  The scale of this - still underappreciated- is determined mainly by the virus' R-nought value. If then, as many Americans catch COVID-19 as caught the H1N1 Swine flu in 2009, the death toll could exceed 440,000 by the time it's over.  As Niall Ferguson points out in his WSJ column yesterday (p.A17):

"Network effects are the reason it is anything but dumb to worry about this novel coronavirus.  Not only is it spreading much faster than most Americans realize, it is also disrupting global manufacturing supply chains as well as all the economic activities that depend on travel and proximity."

The even more somber specter hanging over the markets is the degree of  ordinary leverage, beyond the already referenced over-leveraged oil markets.  This is the degree to which disproportionate debt underlies the purchase of ordinary stocks, shares. One pundit on CNBCs  'Squawk Box' yesterday morning observed that currently for every $1-2  an investor uses to purchase a share -  say for $10  - the balance is appropriated via leverage or going into hock.  Hence, a paper $6 trillion loss in a major sellout could actually turn out to be $50 trillion. 

This warning is not new. Two years ago, we read in the April 17, 2018 Financial Times ('IMF Sounds Alarm On Excessive Global Borrowing') :

"The world's $164 trillion debt pile is bigger than at the height of the financial crisis a decade ago, the IMF has warned, sounding the alarm on excessive global borrowing.  The fund said the private and public sectors urgently need to cut debt levels to improve the resilience of the global economy, and provide greater firefighting ability it things go wrong."

Much of this arose from leveraging debt to purchase stocks,  the new game in town since the recession as played by the Street's  'wise guys' and 'masters of the universe'.   The FT piece went on to point out:

"World borrowing is more than twice the size of the value of goods and services produced and 225% of global gross domestic product. This is 12 percentage points higher than the peak of the previous financial crisis in 2009." 

This is incomprehensible but much of it can be blamed on the Fed with its idiotic and inappropriate rate cuts which have only fed the leveraging fever and yen for ever more derivatives (incorporating this debt).   Adding:

"Vitor Gaspar, the director of fiscal affairs at the  IMF, singled out the U.S. for criticism, saying that it was the only advanced country that was not planning to reduce its debt pile - with the recent tax cuts keeping public borrowing high.z'

Indeed, as a share of gross domestic product , and because of Trump's tax cuts and deregulation  "the deficit will be at least 4.3%  every year through 2030.  That would be the longest stretch of  budget deficits exceeding 4% of GDP since the last century."  (WSJ, 'Trillion Dollar Deficits Seen For Years', January 29, p. A3)

So how might this affect the average bloke saving for retirement or trying to?  First, forget the "4% rule" regarding spending down your nest egg, say over a 30-year timeline.  Incredibly, WSJ finance columnist Anne Tergesen, (March 9, p. B8), was still citing this now antiquated rule in her latest piece,  as if we're in totally normal financial times.  

Now, for some clarity for those not au fait with financial terms, or approaches for retirement saving.  The 4% rule was developed to give investors, prospective retirees a sense of how much they needed to save.  Hence, a person who managed to sock away $1 million would anticipate withdrawing no more than $40,000 a year, say to pay for things his Social Security won't cover.   One landmark study, I believe by T. Rowe Price, found that investors who applied it had a 95% chance their savings would last for 30 years.

But given that the 10 year Treasury note yield dipped to 0.4 % yesterday at the close, and that the U.S. Treasury yield was much higher (5-6%) when the study was conducted (1990s) this no longer applies.  Even before the stock crash yesterday, and in the wake of the Fed's earlier rate cuts, the yield had dropped below 1 % for the first time.   A rate that low (and bound to go even lower if the Fed goes to negative interest rates)  means that anyone following the 4 % rule would have a 1 in 3 chance of running out of money, say over the same 30-year horizon.  

 According to Wayne Pfau - a professor at the American College of Financial Services - quoted in a recent TIME essay ('Low rates are changing the rules for retirement', March 16-23, p. 34) you should expect to withdraw no more than 3% a year in retirement.   For the guy with the $1m nest egg that means no more than $30,00 a year withdrawn, for those like wifey and me, no more than $13,500 a year. (That is easily met given we are not big spenders and live well below our means.)

What about when this virus threat is finally over, say in 18 months, Dotard is finally out of the WH -and people find they're falling behind and fear not catching up?   There are a number of options but none are easy, or very comforting.  One could, for example, work longer, adding more earning income to what the 401(k) or IRA doesn't currently deliver.   Or - wow! - they can spend less, like Janice and I do.  Last, they can seek out higher returns via riskier assets (e.g. exchange traded funds, or emerging market funds) which I do not recommend. 

One thing nearly all proper financial advisers, from Suze Orman  to "McMillion" recommend, is keeping 12-18 months worth of expenses in cash.  (Janice and I have roughly five years' worth).   In addition, both Ms. Orman (see latest AARP Bulletin) and Prof. Pfau advise supplementing investment income with guaranteed, steady income via a fixed income annuity.  However, you have to be prepared to hand over a large cash stash to purchase the steady income, which alas, too many Americans are unwilling to do. They'd rather risk their future in the stock market casino - which as we've seen the past few weeks is not for the faint of heart. Or those who wish to know what they have coming in each month, say to buy groceries,  pay the utilities, the doctor or(and) the dentist. 

See also:

Donald Trump | Economic Policy

Donald Trump and the Great Recession of 2020

And:

Coronavirus | Social Security | Taxes

Trump Is Using the Coronavirus to Launch a Trojan Horse Attack on Social Security

And:

Coronavirus | Healthcare Policy | Worker's Rights

Coronavirus Could Wreak Havoc on the Working Class

And:

• Know-nothing president tweets photo of himself fiddling while coronavirus churns 

And:

Coronavirus | Economic Policy

How to Respond to the National Emergency

And:

Coronavirus | Healthcare Policy

America’s Homeless Are Among Most Susceptible to COVID-19. We Cannot Forget Them.

And:

Immediate Fixed Annuity Rates | Free Online Annuity Calculator‎

COVID-19 Pandemic Could Well Prove The End Of Trump's Economy - And Trump's Re-Election Bid

"We're moving closer to the day when it is China's increasingly hefty economy, not America's, that's most to blame for a global recession."  - Ian Bremmer, TIME essay, 'The Economic Cost Of The Outbreak'.

"We're not prepared for this at all. Especially if we have a Chinese-scale outbreak."  
-   Health Policy Analyst and author of the book, 'The Coming Plague', Laurie Garrett.- on Rachel Maddow last night.

“Anyone who has a better idea for what lies ahead please let us know because right now the direction ahead for the economy is straight down.” -  Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG Union Bank

The pundit class and scribes have been working overtime trying to figure out what if anything might put an end to the Trump administration, at least in terms of its revival after the general election.  The answer - as we saw the stock market tank a second day with nearly $1.7 trillion lost already, is the COVID-19 virus.  It would be particularly karmic to see this virus end the ongoing virus of Donald Trump given he's dismissed its effects, as have his lackeys and toadies.  As we learned from Business Insider:

"Trump spent much of Tuesday reassuring the public that the coronavirus is under control.

"China is working very, very hard," Trump told reporters at a business roundtable at the US embassy in New Delhi. "I have spoken to President Xi, and they are working very hard. If you know anything about him, I think he will be in pretty good shape. They have had a rough patch, but now it looks like they are getting it more and more under control. I think that is a problem that is going to go away."

Trump's comments are at odds with reality

The coronavirus, or the COVID-19 virus, originated in Wuhan, China, and has killed 2,700 people and spread to 30 countries. There are at least 36 confirmed cases in the US, including repatriated citizens.

On Tuesday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced that it expected the virus to spread further within the U.S."

 These insights have arrived even as the markets themselves clearly aren't taking seriously a single word uttered by Trump or his lackey stooge Larry Kudlow (same crackpot who said there was no housing crisis before the 2008 calamity) .

Perhaps the worst crime, even as an incompetent media still fulminates over  Bernie's offhand Castro remarks, is that this vile president - whose first job is to protect the American people-    is doing nothing of the kind.    After all, what to make of a bunch which is told flat out - by the CDC-  not to put 14 Americans who tested positive for COVID-19 on a plane with healthy passengers to AL, but does it anyway?  Oh, yeah, Trump was supposedly "furious" this happened, but later was caught in a presser saying "We brought those Americans in from that ship because it was the right thing to do".  The right thing to possibly start an outbreak that can't be contained, from an ignoramus who's gutted the CDC pandemic response.  As Rachel Maddow put it last night:

"This is the leader of the federal government in the midst of a response to what is looking like a global pandemic.  This is not how it's supposed to work.  This is not how the response to a global health crisis is supposed to look like. A leader is not supposed to say 'I think it will go away in April because the heat will kill it, we don't need to do anything'."

Apart from his pathological lies about the virus, over  successive years this orange garbage of a so-called leader  has cut the CDC budget to combat pandemics.    Now, grasping the "reaper" nearing the door,  his Health & Human Services chief (Alex Azar) is asking for "emergency funding" of $2.5 billion-  a lot less than what's been allocated to fight previous pandemics. 

Meanwhile, Trump is more concerned with how the virus is affecting the markets and his re-election chances.    Hence, his insistence all is under control and things will stabilize when warmer weather comes in and the daffodils emerge in the Spring.  Which is BS, as many health specialists (e.g. Dr. Nancy Messonnier) have pointed out.  

The markets themselves, including the bond market, aren't buying Trump's codswallop.  For reference, the yield on the Treasury 10-year note fell to an all time low Tuesday as "stocks swooned" (WSJ, today, p. A1).  According to Tradeweb, the yield fell as low as 1.310% on an intraday basis. before settling at 1.328% (ibid.).  This may not mean much to the average reader, but Treasury yields are key economic gauge, and when they get depressed it generally portends slow economic growth. In this case, if the COVID-19 virus spreads in the states, it could signify a recession and the end to this Bull Market.

In the wake of the news, James Athey - a senior investment manager at Aberdeen Standard Investments- was quoted in the WSJ piece thusly:

"The size of this economic shock is looking increasingly large on a global scale."

Adding:

"What we're just seeing here is the crack in that sentiment driven equity rally."

In other words, investors are starting to awaken from their trance of irrational exuberance and face reality about the potential havoc of COVID-19.  But is our illustrious prez? Hell no.

Perhaps it is true, as a recent TIME essay pointed out ('The Economic Cost Of The Outbreak', Feb. 24, p. 39)  that most Americans have zero clue how Chinese product supply lines affect the global economy.    Or that China now accounts for nearly a third of world GDP growth - up from around 3% in 2000 (WSJ,   'Epidemic Takes Toll On Growth',  p. A5, Feb. 25).   Already many electronics producers that depend on Chinese parts "have suspended output because of the outbreak".

All this is germane in relation to the dissembling of Trump and his retinue of clueless clowns like Larry Kudlow, e.g. claiming "the economy is holding up nicely" because the virus is completely contained.    Whereas the cold hard fact is that economic disruption could be "severe", as CDC officials have noted.   In the end,  WHO are you going to trust with your lives and risk management?  A cabal of clowns and authoritarian poppets who only care about perpetuating their grifter circus via their lying leader, Trump?  Or the health systems and agencies for which they've cut funding to fight the damned thing?

Given only 4 states even possess the materials to test for COVID-19, you know you cannot trust the Trumpites when they insist they have it "contained".  You have to know, given their serial mendacity and history they are feeding you BS merely to keep themselves in power and destroy what is left of our constitutional democracy.

The key thing now is not to panic but rather to act in a rational and responsible way for your families, while taking anything Trump says (or Kudlow) with a grain of salt.  If you're told 'X' by Trump, and 'Y' by the CDC, it stands to reason you accept 'Y', not 'X'.  Thus, be prepared when schools slam their doors shut even as Trump says they're open,  especially as outbreaks pop up in many local communities. Also be prepared for possible supply shortages, for example in respirators and face masks - because our glorious government did not adequately prepare.  Why? Because these inveterate asswipes believe the "media and Democrats" are deliberately trying to tank the markets with fear.   (If you require an emergency antidote to this shit, please see the last link and Laurie Garrett's article, 'Trump Has Sabotaged America's Coronavirus Response'.)

Further down the line, look out for business shutdowns if the virus spreads further, and employees in different businesses are either laid off or told to work from home.   Universities should already be implementing remote (online) modes of learning to eliminate spread of infection. The scale of the U.S. outbreak may also affect whether - and to what extent- supermarkets remain open, and even if Amazon.com supply lines are affected. Hence, don't rush to prematurely stock the larders as so many did with the Year 2000 scare, but do keep your ears to the ground regarding the virus' effects in your own state or community.   If then it looks like it's ramping up, stock up on canned goods and non-perishables before the store shelves run bare. Also, it may be a good idea to stock drinking water if the worse comes to the worst (utility companies no longer able to function because of illness of critical workers.).

Extreme measures like this in a nation with a functional gov't  shouldn't be needed, but we can't bank on that with the likes of the ineffectual, lying Trumpites.  Do we even know if this government, or even local governments, have  a system in place using essential personnel to keep the sewer systems pumping? Or the water systems pumping water, and the electrical grid going?  What about the food supply chain, what if that is disrupted?  As health policy analyst Laurie Garrett asked last night (MSNBC): "Look at the Chinese and convoys as far as the eye can see,  bringing food into Wuhan. Could we do that?"

See another Laurie Garrett interview (on 'Democracy Now') here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v_z297eni8c


Referencing how we my soon see a shortage of critical drugs, including for heart disease, diabetes etc. because of the virus- spawned shutdown of Chinese pharmaceutical factories.  This is why it's also a good idea to get a supplemental supply of the meds you may need (for a prolonged quarantine) now.

Whole cities soon shut down by quarantine and no food or fuel coming in, or medicines? Excessive?   Exaggeration?  Not really, not when one considers the fatality rate of COVID-19 is at least at 2 % (some Chinese provinces are reporting 6%) while the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic reached 1.9 % and we know historically how bad that was. See e.g.

• 100 Years Later: A Look At The Deadliest Pandemic...

Amidst all of this, it is tragic that we - the citizens of this nation- are saddled with perhaps the most self-aggrandizing, useless, and most dangerously misguided president in our history.  And that, incredibly, our pathetic media believes it more important to bray about a Dem candidate extolling the literacy program of a long deceased  dictator than what the current dictator is failing to do.

Trump, I understand, is to take to the airwaves tonight - to try to lie his way out of all the heat and scrutiny he's taking.  This is one American, in fact two (with Janice),  who won't be wasting time watching the performance of "Mr. Reality TV" Liar-in-Chief.   Put the head of CDC on and we'll watch but not the orange fungal maggot. 

Meanwhile, we have the likes of the Wall Street Journal's editorial reactionaries claiming today the congressional appeal for more resources to fight COVID-19 is merely "political opportunism" to enable more government spending (e.g. 'The Spending Virus')  p. A16.    These nabobs would do better to pay attention to the market's own reaction - a 1900 pt. drop and 6.6% retreat - that it doesn't trust the Bozo the WSJ seeks to protect.

The rest of us need to have the sense to grasp that neither Trump or his media defenders have our welfare at stake, but holding onto their own power.  Perhaps, as they seek to brazenly consolidate that power with lies, the one factor they can't control will ultimately put it an end to it.

See also:

https://www.newsbreakapp.com/n/0OEF8EVv?s=a3&pd=02XzPsdj

And:

The outbreak is exposing the problems with President Trump’s boasts about the stock market.

And:

Trump Has Sabotaged America's Coronavirus Response

Excerpt:

" In 2018, the Trump administration fired the government’s entire pandemic response chain of command, including the White House management infrastructure. In numerous phone calls and emails with key agencies across the U.S. government, the only consistent response I encountered was distressed confusion."

Kudos To Justin Trudeau For His Smack Down Of Traitor Trump

This photo of the 71 year old brat facing an "intervention" by REAL world leaders, said all you needed to know about the G7 summit over the weekend. When I asked Janice  what Angela Merkel was likely saying she replied: "I'm going to bash your fat orange face in if you don't act your age!"

"To our allies: Americans stand with you even if our president doesn't."  - Sen. John McCain

"Why is Donald Trump acting like a snowflake on the international stage? Why is he acting like the ultimate snowflake when Justin Trudeau gives a blandly Canadian response? It was not that tough. He was being kind, eminently reasonable." Joe Scarborough this morning.

The ending of the G7 meet in Quebec was supposed to be a non-drama. Basically, all seven member nations had agreed to signing the final statement --  which was crafted by the U.S. delegation though with some disagreements noted.  Reporters on Air Force One had even been told that the United States would sign the joint statement. But then the unthinkable occurred, as Traitor Trump - our illegitimate resident - unleashed a broadside on Canadian Premier Justin Trudeau.  The orange- hued mutt didn't even have the courage to broach opposition (to a Trudeau speech) to his face, but  in a remarkable pair of acrimony-laced tweets after sneaking away on Air Force One.. But this is the coward twerp we've come to know:

A fucking disgrace and rank embarrassment  to the nation and a blight on the world.  A blight because this feral swine - by his puerile actions-   upended two days of global economic diplomacy late Saturday.    He did this by having  a hissy fit and refusing to sign a joint statement with America’s allies, threatening to escalate his trade war on the country’s neighbors and deriding Canada’s prime minister as “very dishonest and weak.”

Imagine that! This Do-TURD calling Justin Trudeau 'dishonest and weak' when already Trump had spieled off over 3, 300 lies by his 500th day as resident.  A zero who is so weak he has to recruit lackeys to do his firing for him (such as for Comey and Tillerson)  and hasn't the balls to criticize a man to his face but has to resort to tweet attacks on Trudeau on his plane. . Like a little tweety bird, all twitters, no substance...and no balls.  Rather like the "ultimate snowflake" to use Joe Scarborough's phrase.

But it didn't stop there. In addition, Trump sent off his little pet monkeys, including economic adviser Larry Kudlow and senior trade adviser Peter Navarro,  to spout even more disparaging adjectives on the Sunday talk show circuit. These included the following descriptors of Justin Trudeau: “amateurish,” “rogue,” “sophomoric” — while also accusing Trudeau of a “double-cross” and “betrayal.”

But the most incendiary remark was unleashed by the pretentious buffoon, Navarro:

“There’s a special place in hell for any foreign leader that engages in bad-faith diplomacy with President Donald J. Trump and then tries to stab him in the back on the way out the door.”

Making one wonder what this imp would say if Trudeau had really stabbed Dotard in the back.  Somehow I think these two assholes-  Kudlow and Navarro -  have their perspectives inverted. They need to reverse the mirror because they are the dregs who betrayed the Canadian PM and the G6.  Why? Because literally moments after Mr. Trudeau’s government proudly released the joint statement, again drafted and approved by the UNITED STATES -  and agreed to by all seven countries -  Trump blew it apart with his deranged tweets.  As Ian Bremmer put it this morning on CBS, "this was the geopolitical equivalent of the Comey firing".  And he traced it to Trump's inability to control his emotional impulses in a critical setting.

Trump  also, by his classless fit, shattered the veneer of cordiality that had prevailed throughout the two days of meetings in a resort town on the banks of the St. Lawrence River.  That fit, perhaps triggered by the worry he would soon be meeting a superior opponent in Kim Jong Un in Singapore,  led him to tweet:

“Based on Justin’s false statements at his news conference, and the fact that Canada is charging massive Tariffs to our U.S. farmers, workers and companies, I have instructed our U.S. Reps not to endorse the Communique as we look at Tariffs on automobiles flooding the U.S. Market!” 

 

Of course, all of this is horse manure, given that when goods and services are factored into the trade equation, the U.S. is actually coming out slightly ahead of Canada.

 And WHO is Trump anyway, that he can't be challenged or confronted-  especially by a PM defending his own country from the ravages of a Hitler wannabe, e.g.


Hyperbole? Hell no!  Recall that Bill Eddy-   who wrote the definitive book on high conflict personalities -  observed that Trump is  “…potentially the most dangerous person in politics since Adolf  Hitler.”  Got that? The most dangerous politico since Adolf Hitler. Indeed, he's already shown himself to be a traitor to this Republic  and even former Director of National Intelligence,  James Clapper,  now concedes (in the latest TIME, June 11, p. 45), that Trump definitely got shoehorned into office by Russian hacking into U.S. election systems. As he put it:

"Of course the Russian efforts affected the outcome. Surprising themselves, they swung the election to a Trump win. To conclude otherwise stretches logic, common sense and credulity to the breaking point.  Less than eighty thousand votes in three key states swung the election, I have no doubt that more votes than that were influence by this massive effort by the Russians."

So despite Trump incessantly calling the Mueller probe a "witch hunt" and "a hoax" he knows damned well he had the assistance of an alien, hostile state to get into high office. In other words, he is a traitor:
One can then plausibly conjecture that a prime reason for Trump's rage against Trudeau is that he knows in his heart of hearts Trudeau is legit, legitimately elected, while he needed the help of Putin and Co. to grab enough electoral votes. (And as I noted in previous posts, had the electoral college done its due diligence as opposed to rubber stamping, Trump never would have been installed, e.g.

http://brane-space.blogspot.com/2016/12/why-hamilton-electors-would-be-right-to.html

In an alternate universe where law is respected, this bitch would have been hung already or put before a firing squad. He most certainly wouldn't be sowing discord and chaos, alienating our closest allies and slandering the Prime Minister of the host nation for the G7 meet..  All appalling actions, behavior more in synch with a mentally unbalanced 12 -year old than a U.S. president. But wait, he isn't a real president, only a pretender, a fake. A Traitor!

 In an interview with a San Diego journalist two years ago,  referencing the earlier quote, Bill Eddy was asked: "Clearly a terrifying opinion — yet we do remember the ardent hordes of Hitler’s followers. Can you elaborate?"

Eddy replied:

"There are similarities regarding how he connects with his followers, so that they become more passionately connected when he and they are criticized. It strengthens their bond. It’s a major part of my book. In a nutshell, it’s because he uses emotions instead of logic, and uses repetition on a greater scale than most politicians since Hitler. He has conditioned his followers to his simple arguments from day one. Hitler was known for spewing ten times as many words as any other politician, and he used modern media for voice (daily speeches  on the radio) and face (movies of him speaking at his huge rallies). These emotional media projecting face and voice are much more powerful on our brains than printed words."

It is noteworthy that in the interest of comity Justin Trudeau had sought to play down personal clashes with Trump as he wrapped up the summit, calling the meeting “very successful” and saying he was “inspired by the discussion.”.   Why wouldn't the PM who is the host of such a meeting want to at least put a positive accent on it at the end?  The same way (well, not quite) Dotard is trying to put a positive spin on the Singapore meeting with Kim, before even having met him.  A "summit" which from all indicators will be more like a glorified photo op.

Trudeau was also justified in pledging to retaliate against the United States tariffs on steel and aluminum products in defense of Canadian workers.  Again, this is eminently natural to do  for a nation's leader and only a spineless, worthless wuss and loser would punt.   He also said this to Trump's face, as well as on assorted Sunday shows last week, so it was never "behind" the orange baboon's back.  But see, Trudeau didn't realize fully he wasn't dealing with a mature adult male but a sick, narcissistic, egomaniacal coward who sees every robust defense of others' interests as a threat to his own.  Hence, the urge - like a 12 year old who needs a serious intervention - to 'punch back",   even when others are merely defending their own turf and principles. 

But like the alley cats  the 14 year old Trump used to stab with his specialty switchblades while growing up in Queens, he expects no one to fight back. Trudeau did and the bellyaching litte yellow belly couldn't take it.

 Trump, who apparently saw Trudeau’s news conference on television aboard Air Force One en route to Singapore, lost it at the sight of a fearless leader.  His only recourse then was to again emulate a petulant twelve year old, and project his own insecurities and defects onto Trudeau, e.g.

“PM Justin Trudeau of Canada acted so meek and mild during our @g7 meetings,only to give a news conference after I left saying that, ‘US Tariffs were kind of insulting’ and he ‘will not be pushed around.’ Very dishonest & weak. Our Tariffs are in response to his of 270% on dairy!”

Not long after that childish expulsion, John "Ripper" Bolton -  Trump's top national security stooge.....errr adviser  -   tweeted out a photo of Trump, with arms crossed and pouting, as the leaders of the other nations stood in a circle around him.  Evidently DOLT-on believed the image (seen at the top) would convey Trump in a defiant pose facing down the G7 allies trying to get him to rescind "America First".

In fact, all the photo did is confirm the truth most already knew: The U.S. is being led by a 71 year old, navel -gazing man baby who conducts government business like a dyspeptic toddler who shits his diapers every two minutes and expects quick changes.

Mr. Trudeau’s office responded to Dotard’s Twitter barrage with a carefully worded statement, making clear the U.S.'  maggot leader had lied again.   As Trudeau spokesman Cameron Ahmad put it:

 “The prime minister said nothing he hasn’t said before — both in public, and in private conversations with the President.”

Meanwhile, President Emmanuel Macron of France had left an indelible imprint of his thumb on Trump's right hand after a particularly vise-like hand shake. (Google "Trump bruised right hand from Macron" or some such, and you'l see it.) As Janice put it when the image flashed across the news last night: "Too damned bad Macron didn't break his hand!"  Ouch!

That  power hand shake (Macron got the jump on him) was followed by 48 hours of tense and often confrontational closed-door discussions between Trump and the leaders of America’s closest allies — France, Britain, Canada, Japan, Italy and Germany — in the hopes of resolving a brewing trade war among friends. Instead, the gathering   to further inflame Dotard's belief that the United States is being treated unfairly by countries with which prior presidents had long ago negotiated trade agreements for the flow of goods and services.

Exhibiting his full range of ignorance and stupidity, Trump railed about what he called “ridiculous and unacceptable” tariffs on American goods and vowed to end them.  Like the disruptive, ignorant  brat he is, he whined:

“It’s going to stop, or we’ll stop trading.with them. And that’s a very profitable answer, if we have to do it.”

Awww, Bwaahahahahahaaa!   Poor little baby Doturd. Give him a sippy cup, and another diaper change. Wouldn't want him going into that meeting with Kim Jong Un with a full load.

The other six leaders were defiant in the face of Trump’s threats, accented by Justin Trudeau's end comment:
 

“I have made it very clear to the president that it is not something we relish doing, but it is something that we absolutely will do. As Canadians, we are polite, we’re reasonable, but also we will not be pushed around.”

Goof for you, sir! And be ready to level the full 'boom' of the planned $12.8 billion tariffs on Trumpdom come July 1st.

Emmanuel Macron himself  said that trade debates ought never be conducted via angry emotional outbursts, Adding:

 “There is no winner, there are only losers when you take that strategy.”

Next time, sir, please do crush Trump's tiny hand. It would make wifey's day.

See also:

http://www.smirkingchimp.com/thread/p-m-carpenter/79588/america-first-more-like-america-dead-last

Karl Marx Statue Is Unveiled As 'Moderate' Marxism Still Makes Life Better For Millions - And Naysayers Yap

Top of the Karl Marx statue unveiled in Trier, Germany Saturday.

It is safe to say that if you asked 100 Americans what Karl Marx is most famed for, his actual works - not even two would be able to name them. And yet, when they bitch and moan about how they can't make ends meet and whine "the rich are getting richer" at their expense, and inequality only seems to be growing - they ought to have known that Marx did his best to change that dynamic.  But such is the deplorable state of education in our country, that a huge bottomless pit of ignorance is what one must contend with.

And into that bottomless pit, as often as not, propaganda, anti-Marx slander and brainwashing enter. Such as in the WSJ op-ed piece, 'Marx's Apologists Should Be Red In The Face', p. A13, May 4), by Paul Kengor - a "professor of history at Grove City College" - according to the endnote.

Numerous myths and slanders were trotted out in Kengor's piece and it is perhaps easiest to dispatch them by way of listing then skewering them.  But let me start with the biggest, e.g.

1) The "Bloodletting" inspired by Marxism/ Communism:

With Kengor writing:

"We're told the philosophy (of  Marxism) was never the problem- that Stalin was an aberration as were, presumably, Lenin, Trotsky, Mao, Pol Pot the Castros, not to mention the countless thousands of liquidators ..Couldn't any of them read?  ...This is the bicentennial pf the man whose ideas killed millions.'

Of course, this is balderdash. But sadly, this trope and fairy tale has become entrenched in the densan portion of the populace, as it's been subjected to decades of corporatist brainwashing.  If people knew the true facts, they'd appreciate Stalin was indeed an aberration, in a way he "ate his own young" to advance his megalomania. This was not anything to do with Marxism,  which is a philosophy, not a political orientation, e.g. communism.   Specifically, Stalin, in his paranoid cruelty, not only had Russian revolutionary leaders assassinated and executed, but indeed exterminated entire affiliate parties. For example, Stalin raged that Leon Trotsky and his followers were most outspoken against him. He therefore ordered “Trotskyites” to be butchered remorselessly. Estimates from released former Soviet archives show more than 44 million Trotskyites were butchered.

What does this all mean? It means it wasn't Marxism responsible for the slaughter and butchery, but individual megalomania!  It also means it wasn't atheism responsible for the slaughter. Neither Marxism nor atheism created the single-minded dictators, like Stalin, Pol Pot or Mao (in China) who brooked no competition and used the levers of state power to exterminate opponents.   Now, is it possible that communism - as the then practical manifestation of Marx's  "stateless society" - provided the means for Stalin to "stack the deck " to inflict his monstrous harm?   Yes, it is true, but this is no different from Trump using his own megalomania and constant deranged outbursts,  and lies  to stress and destabilize our constitutional structures and norms. Those actions, including his ceaseless slander of the FBI,  could also materialize  ultimately  in monstrous harm -if we don't get rid of him soon.

The difference is that the concentrated power in the Soviet state made it almost impossible to get rid of Stalin short of assassination. But we can choose to get rid of Trump by gathering our wits and first claiming back the House in the coming midterms to reaffirm separation of powers (and cross checking Trump's worst instincts), then getting rid of him either via impeachment (and indictment in a Dem -run Senate) or in the next  general election.  But be warned even then!  As per Ian Bremmer's piece ('The Strongman Era', TIME, May 14, p. 43):

"An August, 2017 Washington Post poll found that 52 % of Republican voters would support postponing the 2020 election if Trump said the delay was needed to ensure that only eligible American citizens could vote."

Make no mistake if we crossed this dangerous 'Rubicon' all bets would be off about a peaceful,  democratic transition of power. We'd truly be in a "Stalinesque" era and there's no telling what further Trump transgressions could follow.

It would do well for Kengor in this sense to attend to the words of European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker - who pointedly observed in the run up to the Marx statue unveiling that Marx was not responsible for the horrors committed long after his death in 1883.

2. Communism Marxism relies on state violence to seize private property:

Americans here get hung up on account of their failure to distinguish personal-private and public property. They also fail to process differences, because of capitalist blinders, to see how their own country exercises violence against THEIR property.  For sure, Communism necessarily distributes PUBLIC property universally, but, at least as far as the communist is concerned, you can still keep your smartphone.

Americans will yelp, 'See, told ya!' But not so fast! As Douglas Rushkoff points out ('Life, Inc,', p. 54) the very construction of the federal highway system (to serve the automobile manufacturers) "didn't bother to consider the effects of their constructions on the people around them. Huge swaths of territory were considered only for their value as rights of way not places in themselves."

The result?

"Neighborhoods were uprooted, divided and demolished. Local governments that attempted to resist were quickly neutralized in the courts."

I can cite also the case of my own grandfather, whose beloved corner grocery at N. 27th St.. and Meinecke in Milwaukee was seized by "eminent domain". He was paid only a fraction of its worth. All this to make way for a new expressway which ended up never being built. Don't think he experienced state violence at the literal seizure of his property? Think again!


3) Communist economies aren't  based on free exchange, Capitalist economies are:

In fact, barter and 'black markets' have always been part of communist economies, as they are in the capitalist ones. The reason is to get around state-centrally controlled markets in the former, and capitalist Neoliberal controlled markets in the latter. Rushkoff again, shows how we are all puppets in the capitalist market system as well as victims, from gentrification of neighborhoods - with long time residents (usually less wealthy displaced)  to make way for new condos or Starbucks, to fracking polluting air and water - to make way for drilling gas or shale oil, to the toxic polluting of water supplies.

The idea that we’re all going around  in the US of A making free choices in an abundant market where everyone’s needs get met is patently belied by the lived experience of hundreds of millions of people. Most of us find ourselves constantly stuck between competing pressures and therefore stressed out, exhausted, lonely, and in search of meaning. — as though we’re not in control of our lives. From the type of isolated subdivisions we inhabit, to the jobs we can get, to the restrictions placed on us by banks and the Fed, and even the way the stock market is rigged against us (some small niche getting info on companies in advance) we are all living in a fool's paradise where we think we're exercising enormous freedoms - but are merely doing what our capitalist overseers expect.

By comparison,  in the old Soviet Union, at least every Russian really had a job if he wanted it, even it was filing cards, being a teacher assistant,  or road works. The state truly supported the citizen. No, it wasn't nirvana - hell no, but economic security and having food on the table  - even if only Borscht and bread-  was a given. No Soviet kid would go hungry because of cuts to food stamps, or cuts to his parents' unemployment benefits.

 The origin of capitalism was depriving British peasants of their access to land (seizure of property, you might call it), and therefore their means of subsistence, making them dependent on the market for their survival. Once propertyless, they were forced to flock to the dreck, drink and disease of slum-ridden cities to sell the only thing they had – their capacity to use their brains and muscles to work – or die. Just like them, the vast majority of people today are deprived of access to the resources we need to flourish, though they exist in abundant quantities, so as to force us to work for a boss who is trying to get rich by paying us less and working us harder.

Kengor barks about the central principle of Marxism being the "abolition of property" - and in this case he really needs to read a book on how capitalists spawn shock crises to grab property - mainly from the downtrodden  in the newly- shocked nations, societies. I am referring, of course, to Naomi Klein's book,  'The Shock Doctrine: The Rise of Disaster Capitalism' (2007).  As Klein describes, the shock doctrine's basis of "disaster capitalism" is to deliberately use assorted confected crises - whether military  or economic- to justify subverting the will of many other nations and their citizens to make the world "safe" for global capital. In one chapter where Klein coins the term "disaster capitalism" she analogizes it to the electric shocks delivered via certain tortures, say to a person's head & genitals. The shocked victims became so mentally incoherent, terrified -  that they were ready to accept just about anything demanded of them.

In the case of  the newly "de-communized" Russians,  following the fall of the Soviet Union,  Klein notes that after only a year of Neoliberal thuggery and "market therapy" millions of had lost their life savings when the ruble lost nearly all its value. Adding insult to injury, abrupt cuts in government subsidies meant that millions of workers had not been paid in months. Consumption? The average Russian consumed 40 percent less in 1992 than 1991 - and they weren't even consuming that much in '91!   Basically, to survive, the Russian middle class was forced to sell all or most of their belongings - setting up card tables on the streets to do so. As Klein describes this travesty:

"Desperate acts, that the Chicago School of Economics praised as 'entrepreneurial' and proof that a capitalist renaissance was indeed under way."

Recall here Henry Giroux's description of Neoliberalism's mandate:

"As an ideology, it casts all dimensions of life in terms of market rationality, construes profit-making as the arbiter and essence of democracy, consuming as the only operable form of citizenship, and upholds the irrational belief that the market can both solve all problems and serve as a model for structuring all social relations. As a mode of governance, it produces identities, subjects, and ways of life driven by a survival-of-the fittest ethic, grounded in the idea of the free, possessive individual, and committed to the right of ruling groups and institutions to exercise power removed from matters of ethics and social costs...."

Having skewered Kengor's main points and Marxian slanders , it behooves us to note there are examples of democratic socialism - call it "moderated Marxism" -  that persist today in assorted nations and which redound to the benefit of their citizens. I am writing about nations such as Germany, Denmark, Norway and Sweden.  Germany, for example, has a "heavy, progressive income tax" of the type Kengor disparages as :"Marxist" but lo and behold, Germany has recently  posted a projected, consolidated budget surplus of 50 million euro ($62 billion) between now and 2021. Most of which will be spent on social services, e.g. unemployment compensation, child care, as opposed to reckless tax cuts like the debtor nation U.S. (See 'Germany, Awash In Money, Shies Away From Tax Cut'' , WSJ,  Feb. 21, p. A11)

And then there is Denmark, also benefiting from much lower inequality and citizen social enrichment from higher taxation, as two of her citizens had to educate Oprah, see e.g.
Oprah got perfect response from Danish woman on their social welfare state   

The  "welfare states" Marx envisaged, actually states which address the economic needs of ALL citizens, remain alive and well all the anti-Marx hysteria and contempt nothwithstaning.

See also:

http://www.smirkingchimp.com/thread/kevin-zeese-and-margaret-flowers/79037/for-his-200th-birthday-honoring-marx-as-an-activist

Excerpt:

"At 24 years of age, Marx was writing fiery articles opposing Prussian authoritarianism. The newspaper he edited was closed in 1842 by the government, he was exiled and moved to Paris from where he was expelled in 1844.

In 1848, Marx and Engels published the Communist Manifesto. “The Manifesto” was written as a declaration of the principles of socialism for the Communist League in Brussels. It remains a statement of the core principles of socialism to this day. At 45 years of age, Marx was elected to the general council of the first International where he was active in organizing the International’s annual congresses.

Marx’s vision of socialism had nothing in common with one-party dictatorships like the former Soviet Union that declared themselves to be socialist or communist. For Marx, the key question was not whether the economy was controlled by the state, but which class controlled the state. "