Tuesday, November 12, 2024

The Colorado Anomaly: Why Was It The Only State To Swing Deeper Blue - Instead of Trump Red?

                           Kamala delivers a stirring speech in Denver, in March

"It’s basically a case of simplistic populist philosophy. It works because too many people don’t understand financial capitalism that really caused the inequality in the first place.  And instead believe in the myth that the government is the root cause of all problems. It started with Ronald Reagan and Friedman economics and corporations are happy to promote the self serving myth. TFG is basically peddling the Santa Claus message of voting for him and get bigger presents."  - Washington Post comment


According to Maureen Dowd in her Saturday NYT column:

"Donald Trump won a majority of white women and remarkable numbers of Black and Latino voters and young men. Democratic insiders thought people would vote for Kamala Harris, even if they didn’t like her, to get rid of Trump. But more people ended up voting for Trump, even though many didn’t like him, because they liked the Democratic Party less." 

This followed a remarkable across the nation shift with millions sliding to the Right to elect a vile, 34 count convicted felon, consummate con man, liar and traitor insurrectionist, often by significant shifts to the Reeps in a majority of states. Some other columnists, e.g. in WaPo, even claimed that many women responding to pollsters and avowed they'd vote Harris, then turned around and voted for the orange pestilence in secret. What, worms nestled in their brains? 

But not Colorado. Turns out Kamala Harris and the Dems again took the state by double digit margins - in a remarkable exception to the national trend which is now projected to even make Trump the popular vote winner, the first time for a Reepo nominee in 20 years. 

In the wake of this insane result, according to Ms. Dowd:

 "Gobsmacked Democrats have reacted to the wipeout in different ways. Some think Kamala did not court the left enough, touting trans rights and repudiating Israel. Other Democrats feel the opposite, calling on the party to reimagine itself. Others blame Biden for taking too long to bow out, others and other assert a massive 'rebranding' is needed."

  Hold the phone. The Dem ticket here in Colorado went gangbusters for Kamala. So why did we hold strain for sanity and reason - recognizing a lying POS and tyrant imp traitor criminal - while the rest of the nation went bonkers, lied in polls, hawked their sanity and brains or otherwise used up their moral capital?  Over what? The fuckin' price of eggs? Give me a break, do.

Turns out the answer is pretty simple: Colorado ranks as the second most highly educated state, as well as the least religious state. Kevin Ingham, of Aspect Strategic - a Democratic Polling Firm that helped conduct a bipartisan statewide survey of voters the final 2 weeks of the election - worked with Bridge Strategy (a Republican firm) to get the answers to what happened. In summary, according to Ingham:

 "Colorado was remarkable for the fact that while the rest of the country moved significantly to the right - and that includes other 'blue' states like New York, New Jersey and California, Colorado did not." 

In terms of the differential he was referring to states that Harris still won (like NY, CA, NJ) but with much narrower margins than Biden had four years ago. When all the votes are counted, indeed, Aspect and Bridge project a 13 -plus point win for Harris here in the Centennial State. Not too shabby. Ingham - in a Denver Post interview (Nov. 8),  chalked the state's evident political stability up to several factors including: a much more homogeneous population, the second highest rate of college education among states, and very little religiosity compared to other states that lost their bearings and bounced Trump's way.  

This especially is interesting given one would have thought more religious voters would have demonstrated higher moral standards and emphatically not voted for a self-confessed pussy grabber ('They let ya do it!'), adjudicated rapist (of E. Jean Carroll) and 34 x convicted felon.  But one must surmise that mammon trumps morality these days, especially when false promises are ingested wholesale, i.e. to lessen the cost of bacon and eggs.

But Coloradans were too smart to take the bait. Further, for both the college-educated and irreligious Trump made little headway. A sign those two factors must count for a helluva lot in terms of elections. Indeed, it also meant fewer of us here in Colorado would either express our pique in not voting, or voting 3rd party. Each of which ended up lowering turnout for Ds in the other states and paving the way for Trump 2.0.   

The combo Aspect-Bridge survey, used to frame a Washington Post polling model, found that white voters in Colo. supported Harris 53% to 45% while voters of color did so 63% to 30%.  College grads went for Harris by 58% to 39%.  And incidentally, Latinos in our state supported Kamala at a higher clip then their compaƱeros nationally. One reason?  They are educated enough to know that even being legal doesn't ensure their security if Trump wants to issue rabid executive orders.  And they've not forgotten when Trump came down the escalator at Trump Tower in 2015 he did assert 'they" (Latinos) "are bringing their criminals, their rapists".

 Meanwhile people who attended church services at least once a month went for the pussy grabber and insurrectionist felon by 65% to 31%.  Meanwhile, for those who never attend church - like me and wifey- preferred Harris by 74% to 25%. Overall, Colorado is among the states with the highest share of people who never attend religious services, so their brains (and hence IQs) are not gutted by supernaturalist bunkum.  This according to a separate Pew survey.  

And for those who might argue the cost of living here in Colorado isn't the same as in other states, think again. I just bought a pound of bacon at the store two days ago and shelled out 9.99. Meanwhile, pork chops came to 13.99. A dozen eggs are also pretty high at 5.59. And don't even look at housing, the average home price here in the Springs now passing a half million.  No, we are hit by high prices too and economic pain, but we didn't let an orange slimeball and con artist gaslight us into believing he was our economic savior. We read actual print websites (NY Times, WaPo, Financial Times) not just social media blurts and 're-tweets'. Sadly, the media preferences of millions of our fellow Americans (Tik Tok, Reddit, Facebook etc.)  bear little resemblance to the offerings of the legacy media, and so misinformation can spread as well as mind viruses. 

This is what won the Nov. 5 election for Trump, not any failure on the part of Dems or Kamala. Colorado voters were percipient enough to avoid the gaslighting pitfalls, unlike the red shift segment of voters.

Also at the dummy end of the national voter spectrum we learned the Trump-Vance transition spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt  barked Sunday to Fox News' Maria Bartiromo :

"Blue state Democrats are vowing to fight back against President-elect Trump's agenda should it undermine their own state's policies, leading one key Trump transition team member to slam them for being "out of touch" with their own voters.

"They should open their eyes and look at how the American people voted in this election," 

Uh, no, babe. Only the low IQ, low information or easily gaslit "American people" voted so - again committing the fallacy of over-generalization. Those of us in Colorado sure didn't, except for the churched peoples.  The Blue state govs, like Jared Polis in our state, are perfectly justified to defend their states' political integrity by preparing to go against a twice-impeached traitor and convicted felon, sorry.  Especially given not enough voters-  namely the young, white women and certain minorities-  were not prepared to do so. Effectively enabling the total destruction of the environment as Trump packs his administration with regulations cutters - not to mention ensuring a climate change holocaust - as the monster gets the U.S. out of numerous accords and goes to "drill baby drill". Let's also not forget the spectacle of millions - or so he claims- being forcibly deported or incarcerated in detention camps.

Lastly, if Trump appoints RFK Jr. as "health czar" look for the CDC's mission to be undermined, as well as the FDA's - including approval of any new vaccines. For sure, you had better hope we don't see an Avian flu pandemic. As it is, we learned in the NY Times one of Trump's first executive orders in January will be withdrawal from the World Health Organization. (Controverting Biden's exec order to rejoin it after beating Trump in 2020). Be careful what your wish for, or whom you vote for.

As for the delirious (from MJ) Bill Maher on Real Time, who huffed Friday night that "losers need to look in the mirror". Yeppers, Bill, the losers (and dummies) who voted Trump expecting he will improve their lives. In that respect a commenter on the NY Times had the best take for the likes of Maher, as well as Maureen Dowd, Fareed Zakaria and other proto pundits rebuking the Dems' for their "ignorance" of the plight of working class voters and their failures to help the downtrodden:

"Ms. Dowd, you miss an important key point--Donald Trump IS a member of "the elites." He sounds and acts like some loudmouth working class Joe at the corner bar, but he is NOTHING like "the middle class" he claims to champion. Donald Trump is a billionaire. Wrap your mind around that. He has (or claims to have) more money than a middle-class person could spend in a dozen lifetimes. He has been surrounded by luxury since his birth. He got into college because of Daddy's money. He received draft deferments during the Vietnam War because of Daddy's money. He got into business fueled by Daddy's money. He's never done an honest day's work in his life. His entire career is built upon his ability to lie convincingly. Donald Trump is a product of television, and television is the business of illusion. If not for "The Apprentice" and Trump's vicious delivery of the words "You're fired!" nobody would know or care about him.

So stop blaming the Democratic Party. It's an easy (and lazy) target. Put the blame where it belongs--on the shoulders of a coward, a bully, a con-man, a pathological liar, a downright miserable, evil excuse for a human being. Put the blame on Donald Trump.

The next four years in this country will be hell on earth. Trump will pardon himself of all his crimes, past and present. He will direct the DOJ to shut down all investigations and prosecutions involving him. He will be, in essence, a king--and nobody will be able to stop him."

The only other takeaway we need here is Sen. Chuck Schumer gathering his Dem majority to fight like junkyard dogs to get Biden's 32 federal judge nominees (still in the 'pipeline')  confirmed. Trump has demanded McConnell and the GOP block them but this can't happen, not after the Merrick Garland fiasco.

See Also:

by Paul Rosenberg | November 10, 2024 - 7:01am | permalink

— from Salon

Nine days before Election Day, Donald Trump delivered his closing argument at a Madison Square Garden rally that drew comparisons to a 1939 pro-Nazi rally in the same arena and characterized by similar anti-democratic themes: demonization of immigrants and political enemies, invocation of strongman leadership, threats of violent retribution, denunciations of the press.

Responding to criticism of this self-evident hate-fest, Trump characterized it as “a lovefest.” He wasn’t just lying. That’s too simple an explanation of how Trump behaves in general, and what he’s doing here. Lying is deceiving people about the state of the world, and Trump routinely does that too. But simply tallying up the lies gives no insight into their purpose. Bulls***ting is deceiving people about one’s motives — using true or false claims indiscriminately — and is a more accurate description of his routine behavior. But calling that rally calls a “lovefest,” is doing something more: That's gaslighting, an effort to undermine people’s entire sense of reality and impose an invented reality in its place

» article continues...

And:

Opinion | Right-wing disinformation is a mortal threat to democracy - The Washington Post

Excerpt:

Whether you believe that Americans embraced President-elect Donald Trump’s misogynistic, racist and bullying persona because they misunderstood what he stood for or because they liked what he stood for; or because they believed (falsely) that the economy was in a recession or because they could not afford to buy their own home; or because of some combination of all of these, we cannot ignore the success of the right-wing media’s disinformation network in shaping how millions of Americans view the country....

 Reuters-Ipsos poll found that “Americans who primarily get their news from Fox News and Conservative Media and social media/other are more likely to answer questions about inflation and crime incorrectly than Americans writ large.” 

When tens of millions of Americans believe things that simply are not true, Democrats’ accomplishments matter very little. And frighteningly, “You can get people to vote away their democracy … as long as you create a false world for them to believe in,” as historian Heather Cox Richardson said.

And:

Opinion | Americans’ fury at globalization will hurt the rest of the world - The Washington Post

Excerpt:

What ultimately motivates Trump’s voters is that the United States has done a dismal job of distributing the gains from these global wins. It is by far the most unequal nation in the developed world. The American poverty rate vastly exceeds that of other affluent nations. Its life expectancy is shorter than that of its peers. Its social ills belie its place among the group of “advanced” nations.


That’s not other countries’ fault, however. That’s the fault of a political system unwilling to address the social downsides of the many changes, whether technological, economic or demographic, that modernity has brought about, and distribute some of the gains from its winners to its losers.


And:

by Alex Henderson | November 12, 2024 - 6:43am | permalink

— from Alternet

Many of the voters who supported President-elect Donald Trump on Election Night 2024 were staunch MAGA loyalists. Others, however, voted for Trump despite their reservations, often because of inflation and the economy.

In an article published by the Philadelphia Inquirer on November 11, one of the Pennsylvania results who voted for him was 45-year-old Matt Wolfson of Scranton.

A former construction worker, Wolfson voted for Trump despite his affinity for authoritarians.

Wolfson told the Inquirer, "He's good and bad. People say he's a dictator. I believe that. I consider him like Hitler, but I voted for the man.”

In response to that quote, a Philly resident tweeted, "This quote is absolutely insane."

» article continues...


And:

by Robert Reich | November 11, 2024 - 6:33am | permalink

Monday, November 11, 2024

Sketches, Drawings From My Dad's Pacific War Diary (1942-43)

 These are some of the most notable sketches from Dad's World War II Diary as referenced in the previous post:













See also:

A Veterans' Day Remembrance Of My Dad In World War II - Pacific Theater

 

At my dad's funeral in July of 2009, and a photo taken after his return to the U.S. from the Philippines, in May, 1945.

In June, 1971, two weeks before leaving on my Peace Corps assignment, my dad and I sat down on the front porch of our (then) Hialeah, FL home, and went through his war diary - written over 36 months while he served in the Pacific. But what impressed me besides his writing of the various battles experienced, were the lavish illustrations*: artillery shells exploding and lighting up the night sky, and Japanese Zeros firing in the Battle of Buna - as well as the sketches of his fellow troops many with gaunt faces. Many of those troops had to fight on without so much of a hint of a C-ration.

The Battle of Buna itself slogged on, recorded over some twenty pages of his diary, and extracted a remorseless toll. For serious WW II historians, Buna Gona among the most savage of the Pacific theater, and in many historians' minds even bloodier than Guadalcanal.  Those interested who wish to read an excellent account of the battle can go here:

http://www.historyofwar.org/articles/battles_buna.html

From the above link, picking up after the fiercest fighting:

"Scattered fighting continued over the next few days, as the last surviving Japanese strong points were mopped up. Casualties on both sides were high – the Allies buried 1,400 Japanese dead, while the Allies lost 620 dead, 2,065 wounded and 132 missing, two thirds of them in the three regiments of the 32nd Division and the rest in the 18th Brigade. In all the Papuan campaign cost the Allies more men than the fighting on Guadalcanal.

Buna, Gona and Sanananda were the first battles in which Allied solders attacked Japanese troops who had had time to dig in."


Interestingly, during our conversation that evening in June, 1971, I recall asking Dad what was worse, the Japs or the mosquitoes. He said, on thinking it over, it was a "toss up".. That might sound strange but his worst mortal wound wasn't from a Nipponese combatant but from a New Guinea mosquito leaving him at death's door with malaria.

New Guinea head hunter and Dad, taken before the Battle of Buna

Re: World War II, being a "good" (just) war also meant national sacrifice. It de facto  meant not only mass rationing for then citizens in the States, but also higher taxes to fund the war effort. To fix ideas, some numbers can help concerning World War II:

- A total of 16.1 million served, of whom 6.1 million volunteered - including dad (over a year before Pearl Harbor)

- 406,000 were killed (nearly the population of Cleveland) and 671,000 were wounded

- By war's end 12.1 million were still in uniform (compared with 3.1m in 1970 at the height of the Vietnam War)

- In 1950, 28 percent of all men 18 and over were WWII veterans - while today barely 1 percent of men and women are active duty military.

The preceding are all based on Census data, but it actually understates the wartime mobilization. For example, looking just at men aged 15 to 39 in 1940 (my dad was 20), between 50 and 60 percent served in World War II.

These stats disclose not only a massive mobilization in response to a real threat - but a collectively unifying dynamic not present today. The effort involved almost everyone, and even if you weren't in uniform you were likely in a factory welding tanks, planes .. .or using your ration books to purchase groceries while also paying higher taxes. NO one complained! As my dad put it, anyone calling for no taxes during the massive War effort would have been branded unpatriotic at best, and a traitor at worst.

Not one person complained about heavy new taxes during the four years of the U.S. fighting in the Pacific theater, or in Europe, though we've seen no similar pay-go with sixteen years in Afghanistan. Nor did people bitch in the immediate post-war period when the high taxes helped to finance the Marshall Plan - to help pay for the reconstruction of Europe.


Meanwhile, in the aftermath of the War,  tax rates as high as 91 percent at the upper end helped finance the interstate highway system, new schools and other projects.

By contrast, since the launch of the two recent U.S. invasions and occupations (Afghanistan, Iraq), I have not seen one single tax raised to pay for them. This means the sacrifice is not spread out, and it also tells me that the politicians and congressional lawmakers themselves understood these were not real wars. In real wars the sacrifice is shared by ALL citizens.

Back to my memories of dad: His final wish - at the time of his 89th birthday in May, 2009, and about two and a half weeks before he died, was that my book on the JFK assassination ('The JFK Assassination: The Final Analysis') be completed and published "even if it means an independent or self-publishing company".   The 50th anniversary edition was published in 2013:


 He was that committed to it especially after reading the first three proof chapters before he fell ill. No surprise that I dedicated the book to him:

From that fatal Sunday (Nov. 24, 1963)  when Oswald was shot down in cold blood , he never believed Lee had a role in the vile killing of a President he loved and respected. In his own words: "He's just a workingman set up to be the patsy. Anyone who's ever hunted  ducks or geese knows you always have a decoy. That's exactly what he was!"

As for the Warren Commission Report, he never bought that pile of rotten fishwrap and said more than once it was "LBJ's protection from prosecution" (He'd followed the Bobby Baker scandal closely.)  When I told him I was dedicating the book to him he was overjoyed, "the happiest birthday" he'd had in some time.

Was dad, a decorated WW II vet, a "conspiracy kook"? Not in any way, shape or form - not even remotely. He was a fully trained, enlisted soldier,  familiar with the firing of rifles in different conditions under stress and knew Oswald's alleged feat didn't add up,  "especially with that damned Mannlicher-Carcano".  He knew, much better than the Warrenite fraudsters and groupies, what was feasible and what wasn't.  He also knew the "single bullet theory" was a fraud, "one of the biggest ever perpetrated on the American people."


When dad died on July 12, 2009, I learned afterward (from my mom)  he'd left his collection of JFK books and memorabilia to me - including the uncirculated Bicentennial  JFK coin shown below:



Today, I recall Dad's WWII exploits, as I do John F. Kennedy's.  This is given both JFK and dad were heroes in the Pacific theater and fought the good fight to make this nation better.

In the case of JFK, there have been actual comparisons made to Trump (back in 2017), such as one Steven Livingstone  book, claiming that there was "a parallel between Kennedy's mastery of television and Trump's use of twitter". But this is like comparing a comic blurtation to a debate speech. As I've noted in previous posts (after Trump won in 2016),  twitter was -is (now as 'T') a cartoon medium - with only 140 characters maximum to convey thoughts. By contrast, JFK literally had to think on his feet and often (in his press conferences) deliver extended sophisticated responses (sometimes topping 5,000 words) to savvy reporters, something I doubt Trump could do if his life depended on it.

As the late CBS anchor Bob Schieffer put it: "I don't remember anyone telling Kennedy you need to stop doing so much television. But everywhere I turn I hear Trump supporters saying 'if only he would stop those tweets'". 

So clearly, it's comparing chalk and cheese.


* Illustrations in next post

See also:


Friday, November 8, 2024

A Problem Template For Pendulum Libration , Simple Harmonic Motion & Total Energy

 

  Simple Pendulum:  At angle  the motion is not simple harmonic.


Consider  the equation for a simple pendulum:

q dt 2   - k sin  q

 If  q  is small enough i.e. sin q »   

Then: d q dt 2   - w q

 or:   q "   - w q

So the problem reduces to one of SHM.

We can also formulate:

Ć² ( d  q dt  ) (d q dt 2   ) =  ½ ( d  q dt  )

= -  Ć² w 2 sin  q (q dt ) =   w 2 cos  q +  C

Now define: f =  q /2 =    Ć² Ć–A dt = Ć² f/ [Ɩ1 - sin  f ]

 Since:

Cases:

i) For k = 0,  w = 0, trivial

ii) For 0 > k > 1,   can take on any value.

iii) For k = 1i: Integrand ® oo  when f  ®  p /2

iv) For k > 1: Integrand exists for sin  <   1k 

Since: 1 - k sin   > 0

We then have the condition for libration that: k > 1

In effect,  k is a function of total energy of the system k (w2, C). A graph of the latter  (as potential energy V( q )) through the motion in the plane is shown below:


At the libration level we see the motion of the pendulum is constrained i.e. between two 'mirror' values for q:

For q :    - 2  <   0   <   a                 0   <   a  <   2p 

For this energy E  less than a certain critical value (E crit = 2 mgL), the pendulum will just swing back and forth in the plane.  ( The critical value of E is just the value of the potential energy at the top, q = ±pThis kind of periodic motion is called libration. 

 In contrast, if E is greater than the critical value, the pendulum will swing around and around. This kind of periodic motion is called rotation. If the energy is just equal to the critical value, there will be two possibilities. 

 If the pendulum starts out in motion, it will approach its vertical position ever more closely, without reaching it in any finite time. Or, the pendulum could start out perched exactly in the vertical position. It will remain there indefinitely. If the energy is zero (k = 0,  w = 0), the pendulum just hangs straight down in a vertical plumbline.  

We now examine the case for k < 1 which means the angle q (or f)  can have any value, since  f =  q /2 .  The diagram below can be of help:


Here, we have the case for k = 1 which means that as f  ®  3p /2 the integral  ® oo  as t  ® oo.  As the pendulum approaches an upright position it takes "an infinite time" to do it.  Let's break the problem template down in summary:

1) The independent variable for this approach is the time, t.  The dependent variable is x or q .

2) If the solution x(t) is known, then x'(t) is found by differentiation.  This is an example of a problem with one degree of freedom.  All such problems in mechanics can be completely solved. 

3) A particular solution requires knowing the value of 2 constants of integration. 

Suggested Problem:

The motion of the  pendulum below is studied as part of a celestial mechanics course, where    is the critical torque for which  f  p /2.

a) Write an appropriate equation for the critical torque value using the parameters: m (for pendulum mass), R for radius of motion, and g (acceleration of gravity).

b) If the value of    is exceeded then the applied torque becomes larger than the restoring torque. Write an inequality expressing this condition.

c) Write out one  plausible form for the integral: Ć²Ć–A dt.

d) To have libration we need k > 1. Write an appropriate integral for this.

e) Given the condition sin f »   f   show the motion would be simple harmonic and write an equation for the characteristic frequency, o.