Other Voices Weigh In On The Trump Daily PR Show ("Briefings"), The News Cycle And The Political Environment We're In

I will let other bloggers, e.g. from smirkingchimp.com,  have their say concerning the insanity going on all around:

Heather Digby Parton

Article Tools E-mail | Print Comments (0)

Donald Trump

Don't Let the Polls Fool You: Trump's Bizarre Coronavirus Show Isn't Working

by Heather Digby Parton | March 31, 2020 - 7:41am | permalink

— from Salon

Excerpt:

Here's an example of what President Trump thought was important to share with his millions of Twitter followers this past weekend as we watched the nation's coronavirus numbers climb into the tens of thousands:

“President Trump is a ratings hit. Since reviving the daily White House briefing Mr. Trump and his coronavirus updates have attracted an average audience of 8.5 million on cable news, roughly the viewership of the season finale of ‘The Bachelor.’ Numbers are continuing to rise..."

--
.On Monday, nearly 12.2 million people watched Mr. Trump’s briefing on CNN, Fox News and MSNBC, according to Nielsen — ‘Monday Night Football’ numbers. Millions more are watching on ABC, CBS, NBC and online streaming sites, and the audience is expanding. "
---

As historian Kevin Kruse tweeted in response: "People stop to look at really bad highway accidents too." Unfortunately, that wasn't the end of it. Trump's friends at OAN brought up both his Nielsen ratings and his approval ratings at the White House coronavirus campaign rally on Sunday as well. Twice:

The OAN reporter helps the President turn the press briefing into an attack on the media as other correspondents glare at her

At least Trump agreed to extend the federal social distancing guidelines through the end of April, ruefully conceding that his stated goal of having millions of Americans crowded into churches on Easter Sunday was "aspirational." He said "people" had all told him he should open the nation for business right away ("They said just ride it, ride it like a cowboy, ride that sucker all the way through"), but when he was told on Sunday that more than 2.2 million people could die he decided not to. He said that if we keep the death toll down to 100,000 to 200,000 it will show that his team has done "a very good job."

Last month Trump was assuring us that the U.S. only had 15 cases and they would be down to zero in no time — and now pretty much any number below 2.2 million is proof that his genius leadership saved hundreds of thousands of lives.

He also insulted reporters and claimed the hospitals don't really need all those masks, insinuating several times that he thinks doctors and nurses are either hoarding them or selling them on the black market. These rallies have to have some good old-fashioned Trumpian red meat, after all. Just because we're dealing with an unprecedented global crisis doesn't mean his followers shouldn't be entertained.

His "ratings" are understandable. He schedules them for the usual news hour on the East Coast, most people are off work and sitting at home, and everyone's anxious for news. But he shouldn't be too sure that everyone is tuning in because they think he's so terrific. Plenty of people are watching his incoherent antics with shock and dismay.

These are not press conferences and they convey very little useful information. He is performing a bizarre ritual, modeled on his campaign rallies but with the specter of mass death hanging over them. He reads from written remarks which contain almost normal-sounding talking points, randomly punctuated by weird, mind-boggling digressions, lies and conspiracy theories.

Coronavirus | Media

Will Coronavirus Kill Off the News Business Just When America Realized We Actually Need It?

Excerpt:

Even the late great Charles Dickens, who churned out copy for 19th-century daily London rags like the Morning Chronicle before he went super long-form, would have struggled to keep up with the best of times and worst of times hitting America’s (and the world’s) newsrooms in the earth-shattering year of 2020.

On the upside, the public’s craving for accurate, real-time information about the coronavirus — what’s open or closed, how to stay safe, or how quickly is the global pandemic spreading — has sent internet traffic to news websites skyrocketing to once unthinkable levels. After several years when the New York Times was becoming Home Depot with its digital subscriptions while local papers were becoming your dying Main Street hardware store, people now desperately need news about their home town. Many local sites say online readership has more than doubled. What could go wrong?

A lot. Even as most newsrooms push for a new business model around digital subscriptions, the old model — heavily dependent on advertising — had helped keep U.S. journalism barely afloat...until now. With nearly half the nation on near-total lockdown and the rest reeling, most of the businesses that buy ads in local papers, especially in smaller towns or for youth-oriented alt-weeklies — like restaurants, nightclubs or boutiques — are closed and have nothing to advertise. Scores of layoffs are already happening.

Consider New Orleans. I’ve written in the past about the struggle of journalism to survive near the mouth of the Mighty Mississippi, where a perfect storm of lots of news (from climate change in our lowest-lying state and a swatch of chemical plants called “Cancer Alley” to a tradition of crooked government) and poverty — with fewer folks than average having digital access — had roiled the market. But with the city, on a per capita basis, now rivaling New York as a coronavirus epicenter, things have really hit the fan...

Even the huge increase in web traffic has been somewhat negated by some advertisers demanding their digital ads not run next to stories about coronavirus, even though there’s little other news. Most newsrooms have seen upticks in digital subscribers — even after many news orgs moved coronavirus stories in front of the paywall that’s meant to drive subscriptions — but so far it’s not enough to offset the ad-loss tsunami.

This has all been a plot twist in the wider war for the future of journalism that escalated when President Trump was elected on a media-bashing platform in 2016. But even as the 45th POTUS attacked “fake news” and called journalists “enemies of the people," while news orgs like the Post argued back that “democracy dies in darkness,” to many everyday readers this was often an abstract kind of cold war. Not anymore. The coronavirus has made it clear that access to accurate information can be a matter of life and death.

read more | Will Bunch's blog | 1 comment | 169 reads

Cody Fenwick

2020 Elections | Coronavirus

How Coronavirus Could Trigger a Constitutional Crisis — and Why Congress Must Address It Now

Excerpt:

Coronavirus is reshaping our world in nearly every conceivable way — from shutting down borders to making handshaking verboten — and we need to be prepared for more changes coming down the pike. With enough foresight, we might be able to mitigate the damage of some of the costlier developments before they arise.

That’s why David Daley, a senior fellow for Fair Vote and author the new book “UNRIGGED: How Americans Are Battling to Save Democracy,” is sounding the alarm about the prospects for the 2020 election.

“The biggest fear is that this public health crisis explodes into a constitutional crisis,” Daley told me.

We’ve already seen signs that something like this might be coming. As the country remains under guidelines to practice strict social distancing — avoiding crowds, limiting unnecessary travel outside the home, standing at least six feet away from others if possible — it gets harder and harder to imagine how a normal election might take place. As the crisis was ramping up, Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine announced that he was canceling the March 17 election, in which Democratic primary voters were primed to go to the polls. He made this announcement the day before in-person voting was to take place, citing the danger posed by the outbreak, only to be ordered by a judge to proceed with the vote. He defied that order and kept the polls closed anyway.

This disturbing precedent is an ominous warning for November 2020, when the stakes will be much higher, Daley argued. Ohio, after all, could be a swing state in the presidential election. What happens if we’re in the midst of another outbreak of the virus by then, and a governor in similar position to DeWine chooses — even for good reasons — to cancel voting? We could wake up Wednesday morning on Nov. 4 and find we haven’t elected any president at all.

A failure to hold a real statewide election on voting day could leave the task of selecting electors for the electoral college to state legislatures. Since many state legislatures in potentially blue states are held by Republicans, this could be a catastrophe for democracy.

Healthcare Policy

Republicans Won't Let a Little Thing like a Global Pandemic Stop Them from Destroying Health Care

Excerpt:

With more than 150,000 confirmed positive COVID-19 cases, more than 2,800 deaths (as of the moment I am writing this sentence), and at least triple-digit numbers in nearly every state, you'd think even Republicans would realize now is the time to preserve the nation's health care system, such as it is. You'd be wrong. None of the 18 Republican state attorneys general suing to overturn the Affordable Care Act are relenting. Neither is Donald Trump nor Attorney General William Barr.

"Representatives for five of those attorneys general—from the states of Arkansas, Georgia, Mississippi, Missouri, and Tennessee—confirmed to The Daily Beast that the coronavirus outbreak has not changed their plans to try and kill the health care law as parties to the case of Texas v. California," that outlet reports. The other 13 either declined to comment or just ignored the request for comment from reporter Sam Brodey. As of publication of Brodey's story, Georgia had more than 1,700 cases and Tennessee about 1,000. They are echoing their dear leader Trump, who said last week that "what we want to do is get rid of the bad health care and put in a great health care."

Spoiler alert—there is no plan for "great health care" in the Trump administration. Or in any of those states. Or in the Republican U.S. Senate or among Republicans in the House. Still. It's quite possible that the Supreme Court, and specifically Chief Justice John Roberts, sees what's happening around the country and gives a damn. But, as always, that's a thin reed on which to rest all our hopes.

P.M. Carpenter

Donald Trump

Just a Sliver of 90 Minutes and 32 Seconds of Trump's Cost-free Airtime, Just Yesterday

Excerpt:

Stirring oratory from the president of the United States — real FDR, John Kennedy stuff:

"The Americans of every background are uniting to help our nation in this hour of need. It’s up to 151 countries, so when we say our nation, our nation and the world, when you think. Think of it, 151 countries. Somebody said to me today that wasn’t in this particular world, they didn’t know that we had that many countries. 151 countries. That’s something."

Not that a U.S. president who must deal with global issues should know that there are in fact 48 more countries than this president is aware of, but think of it, 195 countries. That's something. As somebody said to me today that was in this particular world, they knew that. (And Trump makes fun of Joe Biden?)

He also noted that we’ve been doing more tests than any other country anywhere in the world…. It’s also one of the reasons that we’re just about the lowest in terms of mortality rate.

Yet already noted by USA Today about his first claim: "Trump [omits] a huge piece of context: The United States population is more than six times the size of South Korea’s. On a per capita basis, South Korea is testing far more of its citizens than the U.S." As to his second claim, of 42 countries with known mortality rates, 19 others have lower rates than ours.

To correct every one of Trump's lies and airborne droplets of contagious disinformation in his Propaganda Hours and Two-Minute Hates would require Sisyphean heaves of determination that I simply don't have. But God bless 'em, three Washington Post reporters offer, this morning, a pithy survey of Trump's long-running snakeshit in their lede to "11 to 100,000: What went wrong with coronavirus testing in the U.S.":

We have it totally under control.
— Trump, in an interview, on Jan. 22

We're in great shape in our country. We have 11 [cases], and the 11 are getting better.
— Trump, in remarks, on Feb. 10

You may ask about the coronavirus, which is very well under control in our country.
— Trump, in a news conference, on Feb. 25

It’s going to disappear. One day — it’s like a miracle — it will disappear.
— Trump, in remarks, on Feb. 27

Anybody that needs a test, gets a test. They’re there. They have the tests. And the tests are beautiful.

Paul Krugman  (NY Times, today)

This Land of Denial and Death

Excerpt:

"Among advanced countries, the United States has long stood out as the land of denial and death. It’s just that we’re now seeing these national character flaws play out at a vastly accelerated rate.

About denial: Epidemiologists trying to get a handle on the coronavirus threat appear to have been caught off guard by the immediate politicization of their work, the claims that they were perpetrating a hoax designed to hurt Trump, or promote socialism, or something. But they should have expected that reaction, since climate scientists have faced the same accusations for years.

And while climate-change denial is a worldwide phenomenon, its epicenter is clearly here in America: Republicans are the world’s only major climate-denialist party. Nor is climate science the only thing they reject; not one of the candidates contending for the G.O.P.’s 2016 nomination was willing to endorse the theory of evolution.

What lies behind Republican science denial? The answer seems to be a combination of fealty to special interests and fealty to evangelical Christian leaders like Jerry Falwell Jr., who dismissed the coronavirus as a plot against Trump, then reopened his university despite health officials’ warnings, and seems to have created his own personal viral hot spot.

The point, in any case, is that decades of science denial on multiple fronts set the stage for the virus denial that paralyzed U.S. policy during the crucial early weeks of the current pandemic.

About death: I still sometimes encounter people convinced that America has the world’s highest life expectancy. After all, aren’t we the world’s greatest nation? In fact, we have the lowest life expectancy among advanced countries, and the gap has been steadily widening for decades.

This widening gap, in turn, surely reflects both America’s unique lack of universal health insurance and its equally unique surge in “deaths of despair” — deaths from drugs, alcohol and suicide — among working-class whites who have seen economic opportunities disappear.

Looking At Entropy and The 2nd Law Of Thermodynamics

Two general statements applicable to heat engines-cyclical machines, provide a basis for the Second Law of Thermodynamics: 1)  The Kelvin-Planck statement, and 2) the Clausius Statement. Hence, it is worthwhile to first examine each in turn:

I) The Kelvin -Planck statement:

It is impossible to construct a heat engine, operating in a cycle, which produces no other effect than absorption of thermal energy from a hot reservoir and the performance of an equal amount of work.

Does a refrigerator not qualify? NO! Because it is simply a heat pump (cf. Fig. 1) operating in reverse. Thus in this case the engine absorbs heat Q_c from the low temperature or cold reservoir and expels heat Q_h to the hot reservoir. In other words, it can be depicted by Fig. 1 with the thermodynamic arrows reversed. 


Then, the work done is: - W = Q_c - Q_h or, Q_h = Q_c + W (e.g. heat given up to hot reservoir equals the heat absorbed from the cold reservoir).

II): The Clausius statement:

It is impossible to construct a cyclical machine that produces no other effect than to transfer heat continuously from one body to another at higher temperature.

*Entropy:

Given the Kelvin-Planck and Clausius statements regarding the 2^nd law of thermodynamics, it is evident that since a perfectly 100% efficient cannot be constructed, then inefficient engines will reign and that means waste heat given off or manifesting as increased disorder. This disorder,  which refers to cohesion of states in matter is what we call entropy, often denoted by the symbol S.

All isolated systems then tend to a state of disorder and entropy is a measure of that disorder. A general result (from a field of physics known as statistical mechanics) which can be stated is:

“The entropy of the universe tends to increase in all natural processes.”

In thermodynamics at this level, however, what most concerns us is the change in entropy of a system.  A general principle to do with this can be stated:

“The change in entropy DS of a system depends only on the properties of the initial and final equilibrium states.”

Example: 

In the case of an engine performing a Carnot cycle  (Fig. 2)running between hot and cold temperatures T_h  and T_c. 

One finds:

DS =  Q _h/T_h   -  Q _c / T_c  

And since we showed previously for the Carnot cycle:

Q _h/T_h   =   Q _c / T_c  

Then:  DS =  0

One can generalize to state that for any reversible cycle:

∮dQ _r /T  = 0

Which implies that the entropy of the universe remains constant in any reversible process.

 Quasi-static reversible process (Ideal Gas):

Of more practical application is the quasi-static reversible process, say applied to an ideal gas. In this case, we consider an ideal gas which goes from an initial state of temperature and volume (T_i, V_i)   to a final state (T_f, V_f).    

By the first law of thermodynamics:

dQ = dU + dW = dU + p dV

For an ideal gas:

dU = n C _v,m dT and P = nRT/V

So that:

dQ = n C _v,m dT +  nRT (dV/V)

To integrate the preceding, we need to divide through by T:

Þ  dQ/ T = n C _v,m dT/T +  nR (dV/V)

And this is to be integrated between limits corresponding to the initial (i) and final (f) states. Thus the change in entropy, DS :

DS = ò^f _i   dQ/ T = n C _v,m   ò^f _i   dT/T +  nR  ò^f _i  (dV/V)

DS =   n C _v,m    ln (T_f/T_i)  + nR ln (V_f/V_i) 

Change in Entropy for Reversible Process:

In the case of a real, irreversible thermodynamic process, consider:-

a)The case of heat conduction and the one way loss of heat (Q) from a hot reservoir (at temp. T_h ) to a cold sink (at temp. T_c). Then at the cold sink  heat increases by Q  / T_c  while at the hot source, heat decreases by Q / T_h  . The change in entropy is then:

DS =  Q  / T_c  - Q /T_h    or, since T_c  < T_h  :

 D S >  0

b) Free expansion:

We consider a treatment of a system equivalent to an isothermal, reversible expansion such that W = 0, Q = 0 and DU =  0, we have:

DS = ò^f _i   dQ/ T = 1/T ò^f _i   dQ

Here: dQ = W(i® f) = nRT  ò ^Vf _Vi  (dV/V) = nRT ln (V_f/V_i) 

Note:

In the preceding case, the process must be performed very slowly to approximate an adiabatic free expansion.

Thought Challenge:

Technically speaking, the 2nd law of thermodynamics applies only to closed systems. Solar radiation injects on average 1360 watts per square meter onto the Earth's surface, or 1360 J each second per sq. meter.

Given this fact, and that plants absorb a good deal of this for the process of photosynthesis, show why the creationist argument that "evolution violates the 2nd law of thermodynamics" doesn't hold up. (Hint: NO quantitative work is needed!)

Could Toilet Paper Manufacturing Come To A Halt In Two Months? It's Possible If People Don't Stop Panic Buying

Graph showing level of demand on toilet paper compared to other goods.


According to a recent WSJ piece:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/relax-america-the-u-s-has-plenty-of-toilet-paper-11584388168

Toilet paper production could conceivably come to a full stop in 2 months if people fail to come to their senses and cease panic buying. Why?   The mass stockpiling of toilet paper is now forecast to cut  manufacturers' sales down the road, or even destroy their profit margins.    In the words of one manufacturer of a popular brand:

"We've all seen photos of people carrying shopping carts filled with toilet paper out of stores. They probably won't buy more for three to four months. " 

The last sentence portends what the companies all fear is a  "demand shock"  which will strain the system, and indeed could send it off the tracks.   Think of it, the plants and mills are cranking this stuff out 24/7 to try to meet a truly aberrational demand not based on reason or need (i.e. the average couple needs only 2 rolls per week, so 144 rolls in multiple large packages would last them 72 weeks or nearly  1 1/2 YEARS.)

According to the same CEO:

"We purchase large rolls from mills and our equipment cuts and packages them into the designated end product like toilet paper or kitchen towels, depending on the quality of the paper.  

Most mills are operating 24 hours, 7 days a week operations already. They are running on fixed capacity.  It's not like there's an idle machine that can be cranked up to increase production." 

The last point is the most critical for consumers to grasp.   In addition, that this fixed production capacity for the paper plants is offset by a different fixed capacity for retailers like Krogers, King  Soopers or Safeway.  The latter is spelled s-p-a-c-e.  Toilet paper takes up a lot of space, and there is only so much space even in a large supermarket or wholesale operation like Costco.  If these retailers allow all the toilet paper that can be delivered to sit there taking up hundreds of cubic feet of space, there won't be room to store other products people also need.   This is especially given toilet paper is relatively low cost compared to other products that can be stored like toiletries, or meats (in cold storage). 

This condition of limited space for the retail outlets means they can only afford to keep a set amount of inventory on hand. Even if all the toilet paper made by the all  companies could be delivered  expeditiously to retailers  -  who might need the added amounts for desperate shoppers-  there's no way they'd be able to find the space to put it.     It's a simple math problem of cubic feet of supply coming in, and the cubic feet of space to accommodate it. The backlog has meant manufacturers are no longer dispatching as many trucks with the products to the stores, at least until they clear their own inventory.

This has led the same CEO quoted earlier to conjecture:

"What I suspect is happening right now is retailers are tapping into toilet paper inventory that's sitting in their warehouses until they get more shipment from producers."

 But the producers don't want to send any more until the retailers clear their own warehouses out, so companies aren't stuck storing the surplus indefinitely. Or hiring more truckers to deliver it.   That means loss of profits including having to hire more warehouse workers. 

Basically, here's what has happened: The stores had stored TP like many other items according to a "just in time" model. In this frame, the given industry - whether for TP, cold drinks, meats, milk or whatnot - adopts a strategy that aims to produce, ship and stock as few goods as needed, to meet current demand.   Thus, by decreasing the capacity of their distribution centers they were able to save on rent, utilities as well as labor.  Meanwhile, distributors saved on fuel and wages.   Manufacturers also gained by cutting down on capital locked  up in unsold inventory.

The more unsold inventory, the more capital lost.  Again, if people no longer purchase toilet paper after the pandemic ends (because they already have so much of it), the manufacturers will be in a world of hurt via lost capital. 

Basically then, the hysterical run on stores for toilet paper has capsized every aspect of the just in time model.   As one Walmart exec put it to a WSJ reporter (March 24, p. B4, 'Grocers Revamp Inventory Strategies'):

"We had sold three months of supplies in 10 days. Nobody keeps three months worth of anything anymore."

To adjust to the increase in demand grocers have had to make more space for inventory and manufacturers have had to maximize output.  This has assured more than enough toilet paper technically, if people would just back off and cease the hysterical  surplus buying.  (Grocers could help here by limiting purchases to one package per customer)

In the meantime, the manufacturers are re-purposing production, for example to make  less kitchen paper towels and more toilet paper.  But there are ongoing worries concerning a supply chain breakdown and the weak link in the chain appears to be truckers who have to be the main ones delivering it to the retail stores.  To those who may not realize it, truckers are now seeing hell having to meet this punishing demand.  Under orders from trucking companies, they're  often remaining in their trucks with no rest stops (having to use diapers) and also facing nowhere on their routes to grab eats. (One New Orleans trucker admitted to The Times Picayune his wife makes him a large 'vat' of hot gumbo for each trip which he then eats in the cab.)

Consumer products company Kimberly-Clark (KMB), whose retail toilet paper brands include Scott and Cottonelle, said it is taking steps to accelerate production and reallocating inventory to meet current demand.   In a statement to CNN Business, the KMB CEO said:

"We want to assure consumers that we are doing our best to ensure a steady supply of product to stores, and will continue to make adjustments to our plans as necessary,

Another way suppliers are responding to the toilet paper craze: Some are cutting out distribution centers, sending trucks directly to and from paper factories to get product onto shelves more quickly, said Scott Luton, founder and CEO of Supply Chain Now Radio, a digital media company focused on supply chain management.

But less said now,  except in only certain business pages - like in the WSJ-  is that some companies are considering halting their production, certainly by the end of May.  They simply don't trust Americans - stacked to the brim with hundreds of rolls - will go on buying it when the COVID-19 plague ends.

And they don't want to deal with the demand shock of thousands of cubic feet of toilet paper stuck in their warehouses representing millions of bucks in lost capital.   My Psychology Ph.D. niece Shayle (see link below) who mostly gets the TP mania, still had cause to ask:

"Uncle Phil, I get the toilet paper insanity on account of the fecal phobia of so many Americans, but what's with the run on gun stores and ammo?"

I replied: "Didn't you know? Those gun and ammo buyers are getting ready to protect their toilet paper supplies."

So get a grip, people, and no more toilet paper hysteria.

See also:

• What's Really Behind The Toilet Paper Panic Buying...

Why Taking A Vitamin D Supplement Could Be An Effective Preventative Action In Sparing You From The Need To Be Intubated

"Vitamin D reduces the probability of contracting viral & bacterial respiratory infections" - Dr John Campbell

"There is no vaccine, there is no treatment. And yet the president inexplicably announced today a malaria medicine had been approved by the FDA as a treatment for coronavirus. This is not true at all. It's not true, not true, not true!  And it is insane that the president of the United States would say something that wrong and that irresponsible in the middle of a crisis this serious."    Rachel Maddow, March 19

"There's some flat out statements  made by Chinese scientists and doctors that this drug was 'helpful', but this was only in shortening the course of the disease by a little bit.  But there's no evidence it made a huge difference in terms of mortality or survival".    Dr. David Ho, virologist, March 19 on Rachel Maddow, referring to the anti-malarial drug Chloroquine, 

Amidst all the hoopla spawned by Trump about using anti-malarial drugs to fight the coronavirus, too many tend to forget that this has caused a run on the critical drugs (e.g.  chloroquine ) leaving fewer supplies for actual malaria patients in Africa.  Instead of repurposing these critical drugs (which help many millions against one of the planet's worst parasitic diseases) would it not be better to find something else to deal with COVID-19?  Well, yes, which is where the research comes in disclosing Vitamin D supplements may well be the best early tool - at least to increase chances for protecting one's respiratory tract.  Such protection, as advocated by Dr. John Campbell, lessens the chance for needing any serious respiratory intervention, such as intubation and being on a (scarce) ventilator for weeks.

Some nauseating trolls on Reddit, in reply to those who've tried to circulate more info on Campbell and his Vitamin D advice, respond:  "No scientific evidence vitamin D impacts this virus. Stop posting this propaganda."

But in his video dealing with the beneficial Vitamin D effect- based on randomized, double bind studies published in peer-reviewed British medical journals - Dr. Campbell skewers this claptrap. For example, he cites  a paper in The British Medical Journal (15 February, 2017) with title:  'Vitamin D Supplementation To Prevent Acute Respiratory Tract Infections: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of individual Participant Data'.

With the key finding:  "Observational studies report associations between low serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (the major circulating vitamin D metabolite) and susceptibility to acute respiratory tract infection."

In other words, those most at risk of ARDS (Acute respiratory distress syndrome)  are those for whom the blood levels of the vitamin D metabolite are too low.   Campbell's explanation of  how and why this is so is also brilliant and understandable by any lay person - especially how the vitamin is essential to having healthy epithelial cells more resistant to the virus. Again, no claim of a cure is being made, only that those who do take the vitamin are going to most probably be better protected from a respiratory event (and having to be intubated, needing a ventilator) than those who don't take it. The sample population of 10,900 is also a convincing data set separated into a control group (non-vitamin takers) and the active subset taking vitamin D in three different forms.

And no, for the record, Campbell is not a medical doctor, he is a Ph.D. professor who lectures at a Nursing school in the UK.  That doesn't mean his advice is spotty or "rubbish", or "propaganda".   Readers can judge for themselves by accessing this video on Youtube in which Dr. Campbell makes a compelling case for its use, citing all key journal references, and the relevant statistics:

https://youtu.be/W5yVGmfivAk

He indicates taking 25 micrograms per day which appears to be the most effective dose.  Given that the typical unit for Vitamin D in the U.S. is the i.u. it is good to know every 40 i.u. =  1 mcg.. Hence, 1000 i.u. = 25 mcg.  Janice and I take this amount every day - unless we happen to be in Barbados (which won't happen again for awhile, I suspect)

People can, of course, believe what they will, but for our part we are encouraged that Dr. Campbell is no crank or crackpot and people dismiss his information and knowledge background at their own peril.  In this morass of ideological polarization, where even Dr. Tony Fauci is hounded by Trump trolls and zombies, it is refreshing to find another voice of reason offering a potential way out of the plague wilderness in which we find ourselves!

See also:

oronavirus | Rush Limbaugh

Rush Limbaugh Argues That Medical Experts Are Just Part of the ‘Deep State'

And:

Coronavirus | Wall Street

Is Wall Street Killing Grandma?

And:
Trump steels nation for extended shutdown after experts warn virus could kill 200,000 in U.S.