Kim Jong-Un Calls Trump A "Mentally Deranged Dotard" - He's Correct

"You're rocket man, Kim!"  -  "And you are a deranged dotard, Trump!"

As the "war of words" continues, this time backed up by nuclear force, Kim Jong-un returned fire on the Orange Orang letting fly with the epithet that he was a "mentally deranged dotard".  Of course, 90 percent of Twitter users had to race to their dictionaries to look up the word, but if they went to the Oxford Dictionary they'd have seen the meaning as a "mentally deficient elderly person" - in other words, an elderly person likely with some degree of dementia.

While the media goes nuts over the charge, anyone following Trump's antics the past seven months knows damned well it hits the nail on the head. In fact, I'd already written a post some time ago pointing to the evidence Trump likely has Alzheimer's disease.  See e.g.

http://brane-space.blogspot.com/2017/05/does-donald-trump-have-alzheimers.html


For example, I pointed to the "Alzheimer's stare" characteristic of  the disease in many elderly, e.g


This was pointed out to me by my psychologist niece Shayl, now finishing her Ph.D. No one, obviously, faults an innocent person suffering from the disease - but Trump is in no way innocent. IF indeed he was innocent, he would have long since resigned from office as a danger to himself and others, especially given his access to the nuclear codes. An innocent man would grasp the risk his defective judgment poses and vacate a powerful position, as opposed to keeping it out of ego or a deranged commitment to a clueless base.

This is especially relevant as those in the later stages of Alzheimer's - as Shayl also points out - are given to explosive eruptions of rage. We've seen Trump in this mode many times, and again it wouldn't be so serious or detrimental if he didn't have his grubby orange mitts near the nuclear football.

Further evidence? His father Fred was diagnosed with Alzheimer’s disease six years before his death. According to the Alzheimer’s Association, “age, family history and heredity” are the most important risk factors in developing the disease. Trump, at 70 years old, is the oldest president to take office. Moreover,  a recent analysis found he showed symptoms of age-related cognitive impairment.

Reinforcing this, Trump displays no command of internal formation of relevant words, language. Look at his recent appearance referring to a non-existent African nation of Nambia.   This isn't simply a one off "mispronunciation" either,  given Trump is known for incomprehensible "word salads".

Alex Leo of the Daily Beast transcribed one sentence Trump delivered at a campaign stop in South Carolina last year, manifesting as a series of dead ends, unfinished thoughts and odd ramblings:

"Look, having nuclear—my uncle was a great professor and scientist and engineer, Dr. John Trump at MIT; good genes, very good genes, OK, very smart, the Wharton School of Finance, very good, very smart—you know, if you're a conservative Republican, if I were a liberal, if, like, OK, if I ran as a liberal Democrat, they would say I'm one of the smartest people anywhere in the world—it's true!—but when you're a conservative Republican they try—oh, do they do a number—that's why I always start off: Went to Wharton, was a good student, went there, went there, did this, built a fortune—you know I have to give my, like, credentials all the time, because we're a little disadvantaged—but you look at the nuclear deal, the thing that really bothers me—it would have been so easy, and it's not as important as these lives are (nuclear is powerful; my uncle explained that to me many, many years ago, the power and that was 35 years ago; he would explain the power of what's going to happen and he was right—who would have thought?), but when you look at what's going on with the four prisoners—now it used to be three, now it's four—but when it was three and even now, I would have said it's all in the messenger, fellas, and it is fellas because, you know, they don't, they haven't figured that the women are smarter right now than the men, so you know, it's gonna take them about another 150 years—but the Persians are great negotiators, the Iranians are great negotiators, so, and they, they just killed, they just killed us."

Hell, don't just take my word for these claims and conjectures,  given I'm as anti-Trump as it gets and want to see his ass removed from office asap as an act of national emergency..  Study  the clip below,

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NXUhcVWOyuI in which David Pakman shows how typical Trump bluster could actually be a sign of progressive dementia. Think this is an exaggeration or hype?  Try to recall  when Trump forgot which country he’d just bombed. (He said "Iraq", it was Syria.)  Also how it just slipped his mind to sign a pair of executive orders during an event created for that explicit purpose. And hey, how about when he couldn’t locate Rudy Giuliani, who was sitting directly across from him at a media briefing some months ago?

Say what you will of Kim, and I am no fan -  as he's nothing more than a juvenile delinquent with his own hands on nuclear buttons-  but his assessment of Trump was spot on.  .To staunch further hysteria fomented by the media, i.e. that he plans to "drop an H-bomb in the Pacific"  - let's halt right there and agree there's no evidence he has even one hydrogen bomb. And I refer to the test done a few weeks ago which raised all kinds of hackles and alarms.

In my Sept. 5th post, for example, I cited the research of Paul Richards, a researcher at Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, who studies the seismic signals of nuclear weapons test explosions:

"It does not seem large enough to be the mark of a true hydrogen bomb detonation."

Adding:

"The limited number of (hydrogen bomb tests) that have been done underground in the few megaton range have magnitudes on in the high six or seven range. That would be a hundred times larger than this."

This is reinforced by Won-Young Kim, also a research scientist at Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory who collaborates with Richards.   He observes that for a test of a supposedly more powerful device, the seismic signal bears a similarity to those of previous nuclear tests involving smaller devices.

Kim added in a CNBC interview:

 "The consensus is that a hydrogen bomb or thermonuclear device would be huge — the yield would be much bigger than that of a small nuclear bomb."


How is this? Let's go back to yield and mass delivery specs for earlier H-bombs, for which I showed two designs, e.g.

The U.S. original H-bomb (Teller-Ulam ) design shown in the top graphic, consists of a fission bomb - massive in itself  -  at one end of a heavy radiation case. At the other end is the thermonuclear charge, basically a cylinder with a neutron shield at one end (liquid deuterium inside it) and a thin 'spark plug' of plutonium mixed with tritium. At detonation, the radiation from the fission bomb reflects off the radiation casing and compresses the thermonuclear charge to many times its original density.

The compression then sparks a fission reaction in the mixed Pu- ³ H spark plug that compresses the fusion fuel simultaneously from the other side. The fusion material is now primed for fusion reactions which yield megaton scale release.

Given a similar design for the N. Korean weapon, the best explanation of what transpired is that the full implosion of  the thermonuclear charge failed to occur.  This means the high density needed for actual nuclear fusion - needed to overcome Coulomb repulsion, i.e. between like charged protons- did not occur. The result of 100 kt was merely an advanced atomic explosion, or "boosted" detonation,  but not a hydrogen fusion detonation.

By comparison, the U.S.  early 50s' 'Mike' design, once refined, came in at 1,360 kg  for total mass and the yield to mass ratio translating into just over a 1 megaton explosion (1.08 Mt).  This conforms to what Bruce Bennett, a senior analyst for Rand Corporation, a non-partisan think tank - said: "That type of explosion doesn't cause kilotons [of explosive yield], it causes megatons."

Again, the incipient danger now is the ever spiraling rhetoric on both sides, as former N. Korean CIA analyst Sue Mi Terry has warned.  This makes an accidental strike ever more likely owing to misunderstanding. Both sides need to cool it, especially the U.S. which we expect to be the adult in the room,  not a spoiled brat confronting another one. 

It may be time for Chief of staff Gen. John Kelly, to read the Donald "the riot act" and make sure he grasps that no more blustering brinksmanship will be tolerated.  If he doesn't conform, then Kelly needs to leave and - on his own - work to get Trump either committed to the nearest asylum or removed under the 25th Amendment to the Constitution,

The funniest tweet today? Trump calling Kim a "madman" - failing to recognize the chief Madman front and center in the oval office.
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Could North Korea Fire An H-Bomb Mounted ICBM At The U.S. ? Not Likely!

Designs of primitive H-bombs (ca. 1952-55) from U.S. (top) and Soviet Union. The necessary mass to build such  weapons would eliminate any rocket the North Koreans currently have - or would have even ten years from now.

Probably the worst nightmare currently for Americans is whether North Korea has the potential to lob a megaton scale warhead - via ICBM  -   on San Francisco or LA. Especially, as I've already shown, e.g.

http://brane-space.blogspot.com/2017/05/calling-bunkum-on-that-missile-defense.html


the intercepting missile system is of dubious benefit given all the tests have been rigged thus far.

What I hope to show in this post is that there is little concern of any such scenario happening any time in the near future.

Recall in an earlier post I cited the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (the same group that operates the ‘doomsday clock’ and has now moved it two and a half minutes to midnight) estimating the North possesses twenty weapons in the 10 – 20 kiloton range or roughly the same magnitude of yield as the atomic bomb that reduced Hiroshima to ashes in 1945.

This was based on North Korea being at the most primitive, early stages of A-bomb development. If this is the case,  then according to  Physics Today (April issue) their existing weapons would deliver a yield of roughly 0.08 kt/ kilogram. That is yield per actual bomb mass.  This means they’d need to be able to launch or carry (via plane) at least 100 kg of bomb mass to get an 8 kiloton A -blast, or 200 kg to get a 16 kt yield.   This is feasible with their existing bombers and might also be with their most advanced (solid fuel) missile and certainly with their Taepodong 2 the closest they have to classic ICBMs like the U.S. Atlas V.

As shown above, the Taepodong-2  is 95 feet long, as compared with the Atlas 85' 6" in nuclear warhead configuration. (The rocket was also used for Project Gemini launches, e.g. sending John Glenn into orbit in 1962.) As can also be seen, the range could be up to 9,300 miles - depending on payload mass and thrust - but more confidently 2,300 miles. Bottom line, this is the missile - if redesigned sufficiently - that could conceivably deliver an H-bomb warhead.

But there are many formidable obstacles.  Bear in mind a fission bomb, such as dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, is not the same as a fusion weapon. The mass, in general, is much less for the former and this is because the fusion bomb design (see very top design image) requires incorporation of a fission bomb to set off the fusion bomb that delivers a megaton yield (this is typically the threshold for an H-bomb).

Thus, the fission bombs (A-bombs) dropped on Japan are basically implosion weapons consisting of a solid metal, plutonium core which is compressed using high explosive lenses. Now, compare this with the U.S. original H-bomb (Teller-Ulam ) design shown in the top graphic. Here, a fission bomb - massive in itself  - sits at one end of a heavy radiation case. At the other end is the thermonuclear charge, basically a cylinder with a neutron shield at one end (liquid deuterium inside it) and a thin 'spark plug' of plutonium mixed with tritium. At detonation, the radiation from the fission bomb reflects off the radiation casing and compresses the thermonuclear charge to many times its original density. (Recall that in fusion much higher density is needed to overcome Coulomb repulsion, i.e. between like charged protons).

The compression then sparks a fission reaction in the mixed Pu- ³ H spark plug that compresses the fusion fuel simultaneously from the other side. The fusion material is now primed for fusion reactions which yield megaton scale release. Andrei Sakharov's design (lower graphic) adopts  similar design except the neutron shield is integrated over the overall design. and the secondary is stripped of its high-explosive components.

The primary limiting factor for all such weapons is the 1.5 m radius (maximum) dictated by the size of delivery vehicles which the North would also need to attend to.

The Physics Today article notes the transition to megaton scale explosive yield is at least two orders of magnitude higher than the 0.08 kt/ kg for the Nagasaki bomb. This means we are talking about 8 kt/ kg . The U.S.  early 50s' 'Mike' design, once refined, came in at 1,360 kg and for the yield to mass ratio given translates into just over a 1 megaton explosion (1.08 Mt). The thrust needed to hurl this warhead mass over even a 5,500 mile range (say to reach California)  is simply too much for the North Koreans to achieve right now, even with their Taepodong -2. We are talking about a total thrust of 360,000 foot-pounds, or 1, 600 kilo newtons. (kN).   This level of thrust required to hurl a 1,200 - 1,500 kg H-warhead is at least ten years down the line and may require total re-design of the Taepodong-2,  say using "strap on" boosters. (E.g. boosters attached to the side of the main rocket).

In the April Pyongyang parade of military wares there were displayed rocket casings and what might be a new, long range missile.  But in any event worries over this becoming an H-bomb - bearing ICBM are premature. The North simply hasn't demonstrated any long range capacity for an ICBM say to match the U.S. Atlas missiles of the 1960s.

Another primary impediment to ICBM deployment is the design of a re-entry vehicle capable of withstanding the fall through the atmosphere as the warhead zeroes in on the target.  After two successive missile tests with unusually steep trajectories, the North asserted the Hwasong -12 "verified the homing feature of the warhead under the worst re-entry situation". Maybe, but it remains to be seen whether that is feasible with a genuine long range missile like the Taepodong-2. If it can master these technological re-entry problems, then according to Lt. Gen. Vince Stewart it will be "on a pathway where this capability is inevitable." In other words, an H-bomb bearing ICBM. (WSJ Editorial, 'North Korea's Missile Advances')

Note the warhead of the Atlas D was originally paired to a  re-entry vehicle (RV) with a W49 thermonuclear weapon, for a combined weight 3,700 lb (1,680 kg) and yield of 1.44 megatons (Mt). The W-49 was later placed in a higher ablative RV, for a combined weight 2,420 lb (1,100 kg) The maximum explosive yield delivered with these later designs was 3.75 megatons - or more than ample to reduce Moscow to radioactive ashes along with the surrounding 150 square miles.

The bigger threat from the North remains its solid fuel Hwasong-12 missile which experts say is capable of flying 2,800 miles or more than enough to reach Guam. (WSJ, 'Pyongyang Revs Up Missile Work',  May 23, p. A10).  The missile is capable of carrying a nuclear warhead, say in the A-bomb regime (0.08 kt/ kg),  but clearly not an H-bomb. The mass constraints are simply too great for that achievement, but one can't discount the possibility the North's rocket and bomb wizards will try working on it.

Right now, though, the danger is that they mount the less massive, A-bomb yield warheads, say onto the Hwasong -12 (or their KN-15) and use them to strike South Korea or Japan - say if provoked by the U.S.  Right now, the North Koreans are estimated to have 1,000 missiles - according to Daniel Pinkston, a North Korean ballistics experts at Troy University in S. Korea. (Ibid.)

Let us hope that when the next crisis unfolds with Kim Jong Un,  Trump doesn't go too far in his bombast, threats,  or worse - doing something really, really stupid to trigger a catastrophe on the Korean peninsula