If You Lean Toward Conspiracy In Jeffrey Epstein's Death At Least Embrace A Plausible Theory

"Conspiracy theories are usually false because the people who come up with them are outsiders to power, trying to impose narrative order on a world they don’t fully understand — which leads them to imagine implausible scenarios and impossible plots," - Russ Douthat, NY Times

"Consider the Bureau of Prison’s suicide prevention protocol. Epstein was found last month unconscious in his MCC cell with marks on his neck. If he was not on suicide watch, it would be astonishing. Yet if he were on suicide watch, his death would be virtually inconceivable.....We are not talking about inexperienced yokels. BOP personnel, especially at MCC, are the best professionals in the corrections industry, and they receive special training in administrating suicide prevention. Who better to guard against such a horrific development?"-   Harry Litman, The Washington Post, Monday, 'Jeffrey Epstein's Apparent Suicide Is Unfathomable'


After billionaire financier bad boy Jeffrey Epstein's apparent suicide over the weekend, it was inevitable that the conspiracy theories would be flying..(cf. 'Conspiracy Theories Fly Online Over Epstein Death', WSJ, Aug. 13, p. A2).  Of course, most of the "theories" - namely the ones spewed by Trump and the Right- which I call conspiracy hogwash-   don't amount to a micro-hill of ant feces. They are made up garbage with no plausible basis, and above all, fail to provide any logical answer to the question one always raises after such events: "Cui bono?"  Who benefits?

As I noted in my post of October 28, 2016 ('Separating Paranoid Balderdash From Rational Conspiracy Thinking')  one must take care to separate rational and coherent conspiracy proposals from those spawned by outright kooks and whackadoodle screwballs.  In the latter category we can put Alex Jones, e.g.









Jones is a confirmed, demented moron,  notorious for  the nutso conspiracy ideation that the Sandy Hook/Newtown massacre was a federal "false flag" operation. Those twenty  kids weren't really slain, they were merely actors- as well as the teachers- in an elaborate script to befuddle the public and make them demand gun confiscation across the land.  

Another conspiracy kook is Donald Trump with his "counting illegal immigrant votes"  bunkum from 2017 (to explain why Hillary won the popular vote by nearly 3 million). Oh, and claiming Ted Cruz' father was in on the JFK assassination, e.g.


http://brane-space.blogspot.com/2016/05/did-rafael-cruz-help-lee-oswald-kill.html

So given Trump's history of  'kookamonga'  conspiracy rubbish there is no reason at all now to put any stock into his tweets implicating Bill Clinton.  This is even more perverse, in my opinion, than his paranoid codswallop from February, 2017 that Obama was bugging him. Recall this followed all the birtherism conspiracy nonsense he started in 2011.

In the end, I always go back to Barbadian psychologist Pat Bannister's categorization of those who invoke conspiracies and how she differentiated them. As part of her construction of a theory of mind, specifically showing the role of lying in young children, she also noted adeptness at detecting lies was linked to accurate detection of real conspiracies. 

Bannister  published several erudite papers, mainly appearing in university symposiums, showing that conspiracy investigation arose as an evolutionary adaptation to the (earlier evolved) ability to lie. In her conception, if conspiracy is among the most sophisticated forms of lying (entailing misdirecting actions as well as words)  then an evolutionary  "equalizer" was needed in order to expose it so this advanced lying would not be to the total future detriment of a tribe, community or nation.

Think of it: effective conspiracy (a surreptitious plan to alter outside events to a group's advantage)  is not merely a simple matter of bending the truth, but bending it - usually in an extended manner over time - to achieve a specific end or manifestation in the real world. It requires not only the awareness of what's in the minds of those one conspires against and those who might try to detect the plan, but also predicting in advance how they might act or respond to prevent the conspiracy from being executed in the first place. And also predicting how future inquirers might be impeded from exposing it decades later.

Thus, as Bannister pointed out in a 1972 UWI  symposium, the Kennedy assassination conspirators would have to know not only how the normal law enforcement structure would respond to an executive action (assassination), but also the official  paraphernalia needed to misdirect it in the case of an accidental encounter while the plot was unfolding.  (Thus, years later, with the publication of Abraham Bolden's 'The Echo From Dealey Plaza', we learned about the critical role of the stolen Secret Service Commission books which allowed conspirators to pass for security personnel.)

The conspirators would also have to be able to predict where the biggest potential threats might lurk, e. g.odd citizens with movie cameras (like Abraham Zapruder and Orville Nix) or with still cameras (like Mary Moorman). Thus, they had to have special teams ready to confiscate them.  The greatest level of forward planning and cognition was reserved for the autopsy - which had to be carried out in a secure venue under full government control (not Dallas' Parkland Hospital) so that the actual entry and egress points for the bullets could be manipulated as well as x-rays, regular photographs.

In other words, taken in concert the Kennedy assassination conspiracy amounted to one of the most sophisticated lies in history, fooling a generation almost totally (other than a few original skeptics like Mark Lane) until at least the JFK Records Act required long stored documents, files be released to the public.  Bannister didn't accept any given conspiracy case dismissed by the media was hopeless. Hence,  whatever the conspiracy,  there would always be 'x' number of critical intellects capable of detecting its mechanisms ex post facto from clues that the conspirators left behind.  

In Bannister's mode of thought then, the conspiracy alert sounder had to possess a theory of mind at least equal to the conspiracy planners', certainly in finally exposing it.  Yes, there could be missteps - especially given the conspiracy planning side would inevitably add further layers of lies ex post facto to throw off conspiracy investigators. These would be in the form of misinformation and disinformation (e.g. inventing whacky conspiracy theories to circulate and get many to bite then ridicule them as 'buff-based') or simply ridiculing any person that even conceives of conspiracy - no matter how well -versed or grounded the formulation is.

It was basically a race between successful gaming of the public via actual conspiratorial  actions (in cover ups)  and exposing it at a deeper cognitive level by those with conspiracy awareness.   

This brings us to the Epstein case, which one can begin to examine by asking "Cui bono?"  In the first instance this would, of course, be Epstein's pal Trump - and make no mistake Trump would have much to worry about from any Epstein testimony - should he have lived.  Does this mean Trump ordered him killed? Nope. An active aggressive (as opposed to passive)  modus operandi was unnecessary given last month  Epstein was found last month unconscious in his MCC cell with marks on his neck.  Thus, we  already knew Epstein was at risk (to himself) having already had one event in which he attempted self-termination.

Hence, all that was needed was to remove the  protections and safeguards present to prevent his commission of the act.  In other words, some person or persons had to have merely wielded enough leverage (money?) to  upend the Federal Bureau of Prisons suicide prevention protocol.   Even Miami Herald reporter (Julie Brown) who was the lead journalist in exposing Epstein's crimes, agreed that this would not have been that hard to do knowing what she did about "prison culture".   So payoffs would be made, likely to some higher up, then lower echelon guards would be brought into the mix say to doctor their  check-in logs.   Voila!  Epstein is left unattended for at least one long enough period (2 hours according to reports on CBS yesterday a.m.) to do himself in. 

Now that we further know (revealed yesterday)  the guards may have well  falsified their suicide check -ins, we have further ballast for a working conspiracy.  This in the sense that missing the Epstein checks wasn't just a case of "forgetting" or blatant incompetence.  No, there was clear skullduggery at work.

This gives the basis for a rational conspiracy proposal, as opposed to the crap and brain barf we behold Donnie Dumpsterfire spewing and retweeting from the Right wing loons.

Add to this the other power players, i.e. all those "players" in sex games who could have been scalded with reputations ruined  by any Epstein exposures.  As we read in this NY Times piece from Aug. 12 ('The Day Jeffrey Epstein Told Me He Had Dirt On Powerful People')

"Almost exactly a year ago, on Aug. 16, 2018, I visited Jeffrey Epstein at his cavernous Manhattan mansion.

The overriding impression I took away from our roughly 90-minute conversation was that Mr. Epstein knew an astonishing number of rich, famous and powerful people, and had photos to prove it. He also claimed to know a great deal about these people, some of it potentially damaging or embarrassing, including details about their supposed sexual proclivities and recreational drug use.

So one of my first thoughts on hearing of Mr. Epstein’s suicide was that many prominent men and at least a few women must be breathing sighs of relief that whatever Mr. Epstein knew, he has taken it with him."

Or....they breathed sighs of relief that their plan had succeeded.   The bribes were taken, MCC payoffs made, check-in reports falsified.  The worst punishments for the offenders would be either forced unpaid leave, or reassignments,  i.e. being moved to other facilities. Ho hum. This again makes the above passive conspiracy proposal the most logical and rational.  IF indeed the reputations of powerful people were in play they would stop at nothing to compromise Epstein's suicide prevention protocols to prevent him talking.    This leaves the three key questions:

1) Who benefited?

2) Who had the power to orchestrate the disruption of Epstein's suicide prevention protocol?

3) Who would have the power to cover it all up with a specious report?

Now you can agree with this depiction or not, after all it's only a theory - heck, maybe only a suspicion, an educated, rational conjecture. But one thing for sure Epstein's death at just this time spares a hell of a lot of power players tons of embarrassing news print.   Much like Lee Oswald's killing 56 years ago, e.g.



spared a clique of conspirators from devastating exposure. Thereby ensuring an investigative charade  and whitewash in the infamous "Warren Report".  Hopefully, an FBI investigation will be rigorous enough to eliminate  a similarly bogus "Epstein report".

In the WSJ piece I cited at the top we were informed:

"Conspiracy theories are likely to complicate probes under way by the Federal Bureau of Investigation. and the Justice Department."

However, I dispute that provided the FBI focus on the rational (and most probable) conspiracy theory I summarized in this post, and ignore the utter bilge spouted by Trump and the Right. The latter is all deflecting noise and the FBI needs to be after the signal not the noise.  As for the Justice Dept. let's bear in mind that while AG Barr delivered a good patter on pursuing this case and insisting "no conspirators should rest easy" his own DOJ isn't clear.   After all as pointed out yesterday (WSJ, p. A4, 'Prison Staff Put On Leave In Epstein Case'):   Barr's DOJ "controlled staffing levels and other safeguards" through the 120 facilities and 180,000 inmates under the Bureau of Prisons.  Hence, unless Barr investigates his own DOJ, BOP there is nothing gained by asserting conspiracy theories "complicate probes".  Given all this it is evident that Barr needs to recuse himself from any future investigation, or judgments. 

See also:

Opinion | Count Me Among the Jeffrey Epstein Conspiracy Theorists

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/14/opinion/jeffrey-epstein-death.html?

Excerpt:

"To take the sudden death of such a man in stride — a man whose alleged misdeeds cast him as a veritable pimp to the elite, not to mention a monster in his own right — would be a bit irrational, I think, even if it had happened in Times Square at noon on a clear day. Yet Mr. Epstein died in a locked room guarded by agents of the same establishment, the same power structure that he so broadly and horribly corrupted." 


And:

Jeffrey Epstein

Legal Experts ‘Dumbfounded’ by Epstein’s ‘Unfathomable’ Suicide on DOJ’s Watch

And:

Donald Trump | Jeffrey Epstein

FBI Agents Are ‘Furious’ That Trump Spread ‘Bullshit’ about Jeffrey Epstein: Report

And:

Jeffrey Epstein | Prisons

How a Suicide Watch Really Works

by John Kiriakou | August 14, 2019 - 6:03am | permalink

And:

Jeffrey Epstein

Jeffrey Epstein’s Eyes

by Richard Eskow | August 14, 2019 - 6:22am | permalink

Excerpt:

The talking heads have also babbled on about the inner workings of federal prisons. Nearly every word I’ve heard is either factually incorrect, out of context, or fantastical. I spent 23 months in a federal penitentiary and served on suicide watch over a fellow inmate. So I can set the record straight about how suicide watches work in federal prisons, and about the conditions that led Epstein, apparently, to take his own life. If Epstein’s death turns out to have been an actual suicide, it would be the result of a complete breakdown in the system that was supposed to protect him.

Did "Conspiracy Theorists" Troll The Parkland Students? No - Lowbrow Loons Spreading Low I.Q. Memes

David Hogg, a Stoneman Douglas student and now gun law activist, is being targeted by the pseudo conspiracy trolls inhabiting 4Chan, Reddit and other nether regions of the net.

Recall it wasn't long after the Sandy Hook - Newtown massacre that a crackpot conspiracy clown named Alex Jones, e.g.









began spinning his delirious, drug-addled bullshit that the whole tragedy where 26 perished was merely a federal "false flag" operation. Those twenty  kids and six adults weren't really slain, they were merely actors in an elaborate script to befuddle the public, forcing a mass  demand for gun confiscation across the land.

Now we see these wretched, half witted memes and crappola resurrected again by a bunch of nitwits occupying the nether regions of the net, e.g. 4chan, Infowars, Gateway Pundit,  Reddit and related enclaves of web trolldom.  This time the pseudo- conspiracy crazies are targeting the outspoken students of Marjory Stoneman Douglas for their newfound activism and eloquence in speaking truth to power. It appears the loopy conspira-tards simply can't handle that presentation of acumen and brilliance,  thereby resorting  to painting the kids into being "paid crisis actors".

One of the prime targets has been  David Hogg, 17, who went from Florida high school student to mass shooting survivor to inspiring  advocate for gun-control laws in a few days. And just as quickly, online conspiracy clowns in the mold of Alex Jones' Infowars (I call them conspira-tards)   began spinning viral lies attacking the teenager’s credibility.

By Wednesday — a week after a gunman wielding a semiautomatic rifle killed 17 people at Hogg’s Parkland, Fla., school — online media sites including YouTube swelled with false ­allegations that Hogg was ­secretly a “crisis actor” playing the part of a grieving student in local and national television news reports.

Hogg wasn't the only one targeted by an online campaign that flared up on anonymous forums such as 4chan and Reddit before it reached conservative websites, Twitter, Facebook and Google’s video platform. Collectively the posts questioned the honesty and credibility of the grieving students as they spoke out against gun violence.  In some cases they publicly challenged President Donald Dotard, the National Rifle Association and lawmakers opposed to gun control -- and this is likely what brought out the Trumpian Trolls from their crevices and rat holes.

Many of these lowbrow kooks, which is what they are, were  also foursquare behind helping to spread Michael Flynn's  Pizzagate conspiracy, i.e. that Hillary Clinton was keeping child sex slaves in the basement of a D.C. pizza parlor and exploiting them.

One is led to inquire what engenders this fulsome crap.  What defects in the brains of these losers causes them to spawn such bollocks, say instead of applying what gray matter they have to researching real conspiracies?  Well, one answer is that researching the real ones - like the JFK assassination  - actually takes hundreds of man hours of real work.  Just plowing through Oswald's CIA files - e.g. the  OS-351- 164 file from his  201- 289 248 CI/SIG file or his 74-500 file. as reported in the Appendices of  John Newman’s book, ‘Oswald and the CIA’- can take hours.   It's a damned sight more exacting than merely reading a bullshit text on 4 Chan or watching a fake video on YouTube.

But that's where we are now, and who can blame the conspiracy skeptics - like Michael Shermer and others -   for going after anything that remotely smacks of conspiracy when a gaggle of clowns and conspira-tards have taken over the zeitgeist and converted it to clown fodder?   Such as the likes of Alex Jones and this currently resurfacing retinue of goofballs trying to paint Hogg and his fellow Douglas classmates as liberal pawns or actors.

It was Barbadian psychologist Dr. Pat Bannister who once invoked the idea of  a "conspiracy culture",  to distinguish it from "conspiracy research community". The latter she envisaged as the province of mature, rational, educated adults. Serious people possessing some measure of intellect who brought their scientific, mathematical and other aptitudes to the investigation of multiple aspects of a putative real conspiracy - whether that be the BCCI banking conspiracy or the JFK assassination. These people put in real man hours and actually published their work in authoritative media and respected forums as opposed to spreading bunkum through the lowest dreg regions of the net.

The "conspiracy culture"  by contrast was defined by the  resident "conspiracy theorist",  who put forward conspiracy conjectures  but didn't  advance adequate evidence or documents to  support them. Or, if such were advanced, they didn't meet elementary scientific standards for acceptance, including consistent data selection. For example, the lot who claimed no men actually landed on the Moon and it was all filmed on a Hollywood lot.  This, despite the fact we can actually use lunar ranging instruments - planted by Apollo astronauts, to make incredibly accurate measurements of lunar distance.

If Dr. Bannister were alive today I warrant she'd also include another more debased category, the conspiracy clown.  Into this group would go Alex Jones and his gaggle of anti-intellectual loawbrows of the type now burping out nasty "conspiracy" memes against the FLA students.  This lot - I am sure- she'd bracket as  members of that half of the population with subnornmal I.Q.  i.e.  that their low intelligence spurred them on to attack kids like David Hogg because they could see their intellects were superior to their own. Unable to parse Hogg or his classmates  as  "regular" students, it became easier to simply dismiss them  as 'hired crisis actors" or vilify them as  "liberal pawns". Who also had to be "taught" by liberals what to do and what to say in front of the assembled  media.  Of course, because the lowbrows themselves were too mentally deficient  to do it on their own, they couldn't imagine anyone else  - especially a student - able to.

This is what low intelligence gets you in a nation whose median I.Q. is sinking ever lower by the day, under Trumpdom.  When the 1.8 million DACAns are dispatched it will sink even lower, given the average DACA person has an I.Q. 25 points higher than a 4Chan internet  troll.

But perhaps the best put down of this  nonsense was a humorous one from one of Hogg's fellow students,  Sarah Chadwick. She, tweeted that Hogg “can’t act to save his life,” adding that the fact some people think he is being paid “is hilarious.”

Again, it takes little to no effort to imbibe such twaddle or to share it, and spread it out to like-minded morons.  This in a social media  environment  susceptible to moronic fake news infection because it has few gatekeepers. (It is estimated that Facebook and Instagram have perhaps 200 human monitors -  i.e. apart from the algorithms - to detect specious conspiracy clown ideation. and preventing it from wider circulation.)

The mainstream media then, confers way too much dignity on these net trolls from Reddit,  4chan,  Infowars  and elsewhere by saying they are spawning "conspiracies".  No, they are in fact lowbrow loons spawning and spreading low I.Q. memes.  A meme here being the equivalent of a basic mind virus first elucidated by biochemist Jacques Monod in his book, Chance And Necessity.  Sadly, as we've seen with Pizzagate, even a lowbrow can create mind viruses. The power inheres not in the meme's innate value, but in getting like minded idiots to spread it.  Receptacles who lack mental acuity, basic critical thinking skills and any familiarity with logic.

Props to Hogg for shrugging off the low I.Q. troll attacks, saying "This is just American democracy".

But in fact, Thomas Jefferson would disagree with him that this crude mode of expression - in terms of cockeyed conspiracy ideations - would qualify.   No, Jefferson would see these nutso expressions as a debasement of democracy. After all, in his 'Notes on Virginia', he wrote:

"Every government degenerates when trusted to the rulers of the people alone. The people themselves therefore are its only safe depositories. AND TO RENDER THEM SAFE, THEIR MINDS MUST BE IMPROVED."

Jefferson understood that a citizen "depository" of false beliefs and misinformation would ultimately destroy the Republic on account of the regression of citizens' minds. This is why he harped on mental improvement. He understood that for citizens to attain this improvement  of mind they needed to read in a focused and critical fashion and not believe anything without basis.. Another Founder, John Adams, wrote:

“Facts are stubborn things,”

Because they do not admit of being merely twisted into what one wishes or prefers. Sure, the dregs of 4Chan or Reddit might hate that an articulate bunch of Florida kids could find their voices after a school shooting massacre  - but there it is.  Instead of feeding the green envy monster by concocting imbecilic conspiracy memes that don't fit the facts, they'd do better to do some real research and reading themselves.

Why? To improve their minds of course! That is assuming they have the intelligence to sustain any improvement.

See also:

http://www.smirkingchimp.com/thread/thom-hartmann/77839/two-simple-laws-could-solve-americas-epidemic-of-violence

Footnote:  A wannabe Vermont shooter -  Jack Sawyer- was recently tripped up when a friend reported him to the authorities. He had packed away an AR-15 and shotgun as well as handgun to attack his former High school. See e.g.

https://www.burlingtonfreepress.com/story/news/2018/02/16/teen-arrested-fair-haven-school-shooting-threat/344409002/

He told that friend (as reported on CBS  Early Show this a.m.) he had been "excited" about the Parkland massacre because it "was just stepping up natural selection a notch".  In fact , he had it backwards: The Parkland shooting was reverse natural selection in that a mentally debilitated guy took out 17 students with vastly higher I.Q.s than he had. But this is what happens when military style weapons are allowed to be purchased by anyone.

Defining "Terrorism": Don't Assume You Know What It Means

Incredibly, amidst all the Republican babble in the wake of the San Bernardino massacre, it appears none of them even know what the term "terrorism" means. Of course, it's easy to bandy the word about to gain political leverage or exploit the ignorance of a population, and it serves a long standing interest for Rightists to take the public's eyes off gun control.

In point of fact, there is no single consensus definition of terrorism in federal law and regulation. USC Title 18 specifically defines "domestic terrorism" as:

"A violent act which is committed in the United States and attempts to intimidate or coerce".

The international definition is similar except it includes reference to the locales wherein  the perpetrators committed their fear - inspiring deeds or where they sought asylum.

Under the USC 18 definition, Robert Lewis Dear was definitely a terrorist because he committed his crime with the goal to instill fear or coerce the Colorado Springs community into no longer supporting Planned Parenthood. Conversely, the Newtown and the Aurora Theater massacres were not terrorism under the definition.

At the University of Leiden, two researchers found more than 200 definitions of terrorism scattered around the world. Most shared attributes of violence, political objectives, and causing outright fear. One historian, Walter Lacquer, summed up the differences this way:

"In the real world there is not one terrorism, but a variety of terrorisms. Any attempt to find a common denominator - a formula - say as suited to 19th century Irish terrorism as to narco-terror in Columbia, or Islamic terror in Pakistan is bound to fail"

This is because there will always be divergent emphases, as well as parameter and intenisty distinctions. Recall that in many quarters, the first reaction to the 9/11 attacks was to treat them as a major crime - not terror. It was only when the Bushies introduced the "war on terror" - which is a non sequitur - that terror became a ubiquitous dynamic. The problem is it holds too many in thrall who are prepared to cry 'Terror!' at the first suspicion.

This is misplaced because it makes us all subject to irrational political exploitation and reduces our power as citizens - collectively and individually. We certainly ought to be alert to recognize real actions of terrorists when they arise, but not to call 'Terror!' for everything we see.  As Chris Hayes put it three nights ago: "When everything is terror then the meaning is diluted to the point that we cease to recognize real terror.

That is useful to bear in mind as the calls for more 'wars on terror' heat up and the political Right, especially, attempts to use the word 'terror' as a cudgel to infringe on our civil liberties and misdirect our national priorities - as well as playing right into ISIS' fell hands by refusing Syrian refugees entry.