Showing posts with label Gov. Jared Polis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Gov. Jared Polis. Show all posts

Tuesday, May 12, 2020

Why Is The Stock Market Going Up As More Millions File For Jobless Claims?


Graph showing the rapid increase of jobless claims, and the rise of the S&P 500 over the same period (From The Wall Street Journal, May 9-10, p. A5).

It may seem to be a mystery wrapped in an enigma: Why has the stock market (e.g. the S&P 500, see graphic) continued to go up as jobless claims have now reached 33 million? It it a serious manifestation of cognitive dissonance that deserves some kind of explanation.  

One explanation offered by the finance pundits is the extremely low interest rates, next to zero.  These historically low rates mean trillions can be borrowed, as they have, but the borrowing costs mean the blowback will not terrify investors as much as they otherwise would.  Add to that the fact that the Fed is committed to protecting the commercial paper niche - as connected to money market mutual funds- and one has loads of investor confidence that things will not go totally south.  

But there are other factors to also consider (cf. WSJ, May 9-10, 'Investors Shrug Off Jobs Data') .  Chief among these is the reopening of the economy, which moves "have encouraged investors that the economy is poised for a rapid rebound by early 2021''  According to one equity investor, R.J. Grant, quoted in the piece:

"People are making the bet that this is the bottom."

Well, maybe, but not necessarily, and even Grant had to concede (ibid.):

"The market is really divorced from economic reality right now."

  Well, of course it is, never mind the media hype and endless scenes of yahoos and morons crowding into restaurants on Mother's Day, such as at one place in Castle Rock - about 40 miles north of us.  The State Health Dept. - using its authority and order from Gov. Jared Polis- has since forced the place - C&C Breakfast  and Korean Kitchen-  to remain shuttered for 30 days. Its license has also been suspended for 30 days. Some lessons are learned the hard way!  This sense was reinforced this morning as Dr. Ben Gupta - on 'Morning Joe' - noted only two states, Montana and Vermont, have actually met the standards to reopen at any level. 

As for Trump's deranged claims yesterday that the U.S. leads in testing, Dr. Gupta quickly thumped them. He noted on a  per capita basis (the only basis that counts) we are being beaten by every major country, and even the Czech Republic has 7 times more testing efficacy.   Trump was so unhinged after a CBS reporter (Weija Jiang) put him on the ropes that he stalked out of the briefing like the coward he is, e.g.



by Cody Fenwick | May 12, 2020 - 6:53am | permalink

Again proving his briefings and pressers aren't worth an ounce of doggie lickspittle.  Every network that airs them ought to first present a warning: "Viewing this could be hazardous to your brain!"

As Dr. Gupta observed, if some places open too early, before even a week's decline in cases is evident, there would well be a renewed outbreak such as now occurring in S. Korea.  That could well trigger the worst of both worlds: a 2nd wave which mandates another lockdown in many states, coupled with an economy that is re-cratering.  Further, these investors are making an assumption that may not be valid, i.e. that customers, people will readily fill the stores, restaurants etc. That may not be the case at all and in fact - despite the noisy protests on TV- a  solid majority of Americans sees too early reopening as the real threat.

Reinforcing this, we learn that Goldman Sachs analysts tracking measures  such as traffic in restaurants, have found "only very small gains".  In other words, it is way too early for investors to display such irrational exuberance.  This take was further bolstered by a piece today ('Hopes Dim For Speedy Rebound', WSJ, p. A2) where we learn:

"According to a survey by market research firm Coresight Research, more than 70 percent of people in the U.S. expect to avoid some public places after the lockdowns ease, with more than half saying they expect to stay away from shopping malls for more than six months."

That is definitely a blow - and reality check- for all those malls opening now, from Georgia to Texas.

Back to the stock market:  the other takeaway is the rise is uneven,  as well as divided.  As per the initial WSJ piece again:

"The stock market is increasingly divided between the haves and the have nots - and the recent rally reflects the outperformance of a handful of stocks.  Big technology companies, which re heavily weighted in the indexes, have driven much of the rebound, continuing a trend which was prevalent during the nearly 11-year bull market."

To fix ideas, five big tech stocks: Apple Inc., Amazon Inc., Microsoft Corp., Alphabet Inc. and Facebook Inc. together make up 20 percent of the S&P 500.  All have been benefiting as Americans have sheltered at home, and virtual home schooling, combined with corporate work at home, have become the norm.

In the words of Giorgio Caputo, a portfolio manager at J.O.  Hambro Capital Management (ibid.):

"The whole market is not up. It's the best of times for some firms and the worst of times for some firms."

As if to confirm that, we further read that the energy sector - which has taken the greatest hit - constitutes just about 3 percent of the broad stock index.  In effect, their losses are disguised because "the stocks that have suffered the most have little sway over the market's direction."

The bottom line is that most stock investors can rejoice even as their compatriots on Main Street suffer with job losses, because they are "counting on a quick rebound next year."

But if a second wave of Covid- 19 strikes because of mass stupidity - and failure to appreciate the biology of the virus - all those nice hopes and dreams for another Bull  market maybe flushed right down the toilet. 

See Also:

Fauci: Reopening too quickly could lead to ‘really serious’ consequences

And:
And


Tuesday, April 28, 2020

"Quarantine Fatigue" - The Latest Meme Hatched By FOX's Coronavirus Truthers? You Bet!


Numskulls & Shutdown "fatigued" wimps crowding Huntington Beach Sunday, even as the virus lurks among them - ready to roar into more overrun ERs. 
Even bigger crowd of numskulls and quarantine wimps at Newport Beach, CA, eager to prove Darwinian theory's culling of the dumbest and most reckless.
"The whole point of the shutdown was to buy ourselves time so we could do it right the second time after we muffed the first response. It's not only important to avoid opening up too aggressively but  if you don't have a good amount of testing, tracing and isolation, you won't be able to keep infected people away from susceptible people. The basic biology then is the infection is just going to take off again.  So unless the biology has changed we're going to end up in the same place and that is what we're all worried about."  - Dr. Ashish Jha,  Professor of Global Health, Harvard University, on 'All In' Monday night

"Despite Donald "Why Not Shoot Up Lysol?" Trump's unsubtle yearning to "reopen" the economy (which won't work) and let the novel coronavirus run rampant, a new poll from the Washington Post and the University of Maryland shows that strong majorities of Americans think that's a really stupid idea. Eight out of ten Americans took one look at the yahoos protesting the lockdowns in various state capitals and said, nah, living is more important than being able to order that 400-calorie vanilla-hazelnut frappuccino inside the Starbucks,:  -  Amanda Marcotte, smirkingchimp.com blog


Have  the last remaining sane and intelligent citizens finally been converted into morons by the raging Trumpie protesters?  That is what we initially considered upon watching the scenes of crowded beaches on the nightly (NBC) news yesterday.  An hour or so later, we were gratified -when Rachel Maddow announced on her MSNBC show: "The vast majority of Americans remain committed to shelter in place guidelines".   New polling appears to support this vote for common sense,, but one wonders how long it will last.   

Seeing the crawlers on the earlier newscast ("Quarantine Fatigue strikes Americans") was definitely not encouraging. to future confidence that citizens will remain in shutdown mode.   But then on further inspection it appears the term evidently originated within the rat warrens of the "Coronavirus Truthers" hunkered down at FOX News.  (See e.g.''Rightwing Media Spreading Epidemic of Misinformation' in one of the links at end of this post)
 Despite the FOX trolls, we ought to all, at least the higher IQ subset of the population, be able to agree on some general propositions:
1) The SARS- Cov-2 virus has spread as an unseen stealth agent among us, causing illness and death- the various forms of which (e.g. strokes in the young) are still not widely understood.
2) Despite the yen to reopen to business, at least 31 states   according to Harvard researchers--have still not met even minimal standards of testing.  These states will have to significantly step up testing to even mildly loosen 'stay at home' orders.  As Harvard Prof. Ashish Jha noted on All In last night, barely 2% testing is being done per day - which needs to be 10-20 times higher.
3) Given we have a vast "naive" population (with no immunity) and no vaccine, or treatment that works, it is pie-eyed foolish in the extreme to rush to reopen unless vastly more tests are run - up to 500,000 per day. Minus that testing, shutdowns are the only protection for a vulnerable populace (elderly, those with severe health issues).
None of this ought to be rocket science, so one is left to wonder why there is this "quarantine fatigue".  Are Americans such pathetic and entitled wimps an whiners that can't at least be content to remain locked down until June? For the sake of our hospitals, heroic health workers- many at the end of their tether?  Or must we again be reminded of Trauma nurse Amy Pacholk's words:
"All I keep hearing is that the curve is flattening, the curve is flattening. So that may be true but all the ICUs are still full. The sickest are still there. People are waiting to be intubated.  We're full we can't handle anything more. We can't open this country. If you want to live you stay home. My God,  don't open up this country. It needs to be closed until at least June."
Well, no, since polls show up to 8 in 10 Americans are not prepared to go out and have nails done, or eat out  - even if every burg in every state re-openend. The smart people know it is a fool's errand until the transmission rate is 1.0 or less. So, in the end we must deduce all those clogging beaches in the images are victims of FOX News and its grievance paradigm - or propaganda machine (also replicated in the WSJ's Op-ed pages)

Given we know the virus is a stealth assailant, it is highly plausible that amidst the tens of thousands  of  FOX-swallowers packing Florida and California beaches Sunday there may well have been lesser thousands of infected roaming amidst the unknowing masses. As an epidemiologist friend of ours at the Queen Elizabeth Hospital in Barbados put it:  "If any one of those beaches in the U.S. had 10,000 beach goers, you can be sure at least 1,000 were Covid-infected.  If the R nought is 3.0 that means each one of the infected could have spread the virus to 3 others, and each of those to three others in turn, i.e. 9 - and so on."
As I've written before in other posts, no one fancies an ongoing shutdown. Hell, I'd like nothing better than to get back to reading the papers over a sausage croissanwich, coffee and hash browns at  the nearest BK, but I can't.  Our Gov. Jared Polis has made it clear that even if some businesses can open seniors have to remain in lockdown mode for the time being. So no appearing at any packed venues, or inside dining. So, I am content just to pick up a bagel a few days a week at the nearby bagel place.
As the NBC News showed, tens of thousands of people packed southern California beaches over the weekend, reigniting fears that large crowds in public spaces could reverse progress on containing Covid-19 in the U.S.  Photos of the crowds in Newport Beach, Orange county, during the weekend  rightly sparked intense backlash and comparisons with Florida, where images of beachgoers raised alarms about the state’s coronavirus strategy. In recent days, beach and park reopenings have also prompted debates and public health concerns in Texas, Georgia, Mississippi, South Carolina and other regions looking to re-emerge from lockdowns.
But none of these impatient fools get that the virus is an unseen (stealth) killer and disabler) and it can be infecting the most healthy looking person. That person can spread it to you just by talking at close distance.  This is why California’s governor Gavin Newsom chastised those who crowded the beaches, saying “this virus doesn’t take the weekends off”.  No, and it doesn't pay any attention to human circulated memes like "the Covid can't take the heat!"
As Newsome went on to say:
“This virus doesn’t go home because it’s a beautiful, sunny day along our coast,” 

The governor, who last week urged beach-goers to practice physical distancing, added at his daily news briefing yesterday:

“We can’t see the images like we saw, particularly on Saturday in Newport Beach and elsewhere,”
As usual there is no unified plan.  Local officials in Los Angeles and the surrounding region have been deeply divided on the merits of allowing beach visitors. Many popular beaches have remained fully closed to the public due to Covid-19, though a handful have taken steps to permit visitors in a limited capacity while adopting a range of restrictions, enforcement plans and recommendations.
California’s statewide shelter-in-place order remains in effect, and police at the open Orange county beaches have attempted to enforce distancing rules. But there have been growing concerns over the weekend that the crowds were too dense, and the Newport Beach city council is now considering closing the beaches for the next three weekends or possibly blocking roads to the most popular destinations.
At Newport Beach, where temperatures were close to 90F (32 C), residents compared weekend crowds to the Fourth of July holiday, and lifeguards reminded people to stay apart if they were in groups of six or more. Police officials told the Los Angeles Times the department did not issue any citations for violations of stay-at-home orders.
Neighboring Huntington Beach in Orange county also saw big gatherings, despite the closure of parking lots along the highway. Sitting on a bench by the beach, Robin Ford surveyed the crush of visitors with concern.  Ford told the Orange County Register.:
“Unless all these people are in one household, it does look like they are not social distancing,”  
Meanwhile, Los Angeles city and county beaches, trails and playgrounds were closed, and officers on horseback were patrolling those areas to enforce social distancing rules. The city also opened cooling centers for people who might not be able to survive the heat wave at home, according to LA mayor, Eric Garcetti.
Barbara Ferrer, the head of the LA county health department, urged LA residents not to crowd the neighboring beaches that remain open.
Further north in California, police in Pacific Grove said they had to close the picturesque Lovers Point park and beach at the southern end of Monterey Bay due to lack of social distancing.
The question of beach access is likely to become more contentious as the U.S. heads into summer. Some experts have argued that governments should find ways to allow people to visit beaches while strongly encouraging distancing and other safety measures.

This isn't a remote issue in Barbados which has enforced a 24 hour lockdown now for weeks, with penalties of up to a year in prison and $50,000 fine for scofflaws.   See e.g.

Janice's take as usual is no nonsense on the comparison:  "Bajans have more sense than Americans and more self-discipline. They don't whine and cry and act like brats if they don't get their way.  They sacrifice for the greater good."

But not only Bajans.  75 years ago Americans also self-sacrificed with limited gas, food rationing and other curfew limits during World War II.  But then  our people were tougher, more resilient and not so entitled - i.e. made soft by too many conveniences and a social media environment that weakened brains.  They - like my parents - put on their big boy pants and toughed it out for YEARS, not just months.   Moreover, the sacrifice was uniform and universal across the nation, not just practiced in certain regions, states. Contrast that with the nonsense we behold now, including a moron president who actually believes injecting disinfectant like Lysol can be a treatment. (Or embedding a UV light into the body).  Compare Trump to FDR who was a real leader during the trying times of the Second World War and you have all you need to know about how and why this nation has gone off the path of being a beacon for the rest of the world.  And will likely cease to be the world's foremost superpower within the next ten years.

As of Monday, California has had 43,464 positive cases and 1,755 deaths..  Here in Colorado we have over 13,500 cases and nearly 600 deaths. Look for those numbers to explode as the morons  - such as shown in the images- keep having their tantrums about "quarantine fatigue". and claiming (as the Gridlock nuts are here in Colo., e.g. 'Inside State's Growing Shutdown Movement' Denver Post, p. 1A yesterday) they have a god-given right to "liberate" themselves.   Just take a gander at one of the quotes (ibid.) out of the mouth of a 'Gridlock'  protest leader  (and Coronavirus truther) named Joel Oltman from Castle Pines:

"If I choose the wrong way and it ends up killing me, I'm sorry but I made a choice.  I made an educated choice affecting me while respecting that other people deserve the right to feel safe."
Sounds all fine and noble, but he's totally oblivious to the fact that if  he's a stealth  (asymptomatic) carrier he can spread the virus to possibly hundreds of others.   How much "respect " is that for the rights of others to feel safe?  Of course, it goes without saying the guy is a Repuke.  As I said, all entitlement, no sense of sacrifice for the common good.  

See Also:



by Amanda Marcotte | April 28, 2020 - 7:15am | permalink
And:




And:




And:




And:

by Bill Berkowitz | April 29, 2020 - 5:39am | permalink

And:

by Bill Berkowitz | April 26, 2020 - 5:31am | permalink