"Hey! I'm still doin' great with the economy according to dummy voters! What more could I want?"
As far -fetched as it sounds - and it breaks all barriers for fiction - Trump (despite falling approval across the board) "has maintained the backing of a majority of voters on the economy, with 54 percent approving of his handling of it - a record high in the poll" (WSJ, July 16, 'Poll Shows Biden's Lead Growing', p. A4). Which begs the question: How could so many Americans' brains be eaten away even in the midst of a pandemic? One which, by the way, Trump has vastly rendered worse by his atrocious handling of it, leading to 134,000 + dead and 45 million unemployed. See e.g.
Trump Has Sabotaged America's Coronavirus Response
One must therefore ask: If American voters' brains are intact, what alternate Earth are they living on in which Trump is an economic star? What do those 45 million people who are unemployed really think of this con man? Do they really thank him for farting around for 2 weeks claiming a virus "hoax"? And then as time ran out and ICUs filled up, triggering lockdowns as a last resort blunt weapon against Covid that cost them their jobs. Or do they naively blame the virus instead?
Do they approve of his handling of the economy because they now happen to be flush with some cash after those $1200 stimulus checks arrived, and the $600 / week unemployment insurance bonus (which is due to end by July 27th)? Oh yeah, and will they still be handing him boffo approval ratings when the moratorium on evictions expires July 23 and some 22 million are tossed onto the street?
Janice has the opinion that this majority of voters are approving of Trump's economy handling because they still have 401ks and the stock market is still going up. Ok, in burps and fits, but still going up - for now. Mainly because these loopy momentum investors driving the stocks, mutual funds (not the passive holders), are placing their bets on an optimistic future where the virus is conquered by January, and jobs proliferate, people are back at work etc. (cf. WSJ, May 9-10, 'Investors Shrug Off Jobs Data') . To wit: "The reopenings have encouraged investors that the economy is poised for a rapid rebound by early 2021"'
But looking at the explosion of Covid cases and overwhelmed hospitals (WSJ, today, p. A1) that's more a pipe dream. My bet now is that 30 - 45 states will have to renew lockdowns to prevent their ICUs and hospital workers being overrun, also because too many idiots refuse to wear masks.
Let's assume Janice is correct that it's the 401 k holders giving Trump this economic boost. What will their 401ks look like after the unemployment bonuses end, and the evictions (for non payments of rent) start back, and the only thing left between them and the dumpster fare is cashing out their 401ks? Or, maybe they are looking for Mitch McConnell to come through again with the HEROES Act and more unemployment bonuses and stimulus checks. Well, they shouldn't hold their breath because Mitch has no intention of tossing more money into the ring and running up more deficits.
The GOP lot has already made their stance clear to citizens who want to get through the pandemic lockdowns etc. and financially survive. No more money, but "You can find something new to do!" (Ivanka two days ago) Or hey, you can cash out your 401(k) or large part of it. Or, you can ask the IRS for a loan!
The one good aspect in all this unreality? According to the same WSJ piece from today on the polling:
"By more than 2 to 1, voters said they're more likely to vote for a candidate who is more focused on stopping the spread of the virus than on reopening businesses."
And, of course, successful reopening of businesses is directly tied to the real economy. Never mind the pop-eyed detachment of the stock market and the irrational exuberance of its minions. Ultimately, it is Main Street and its jobs economy - tens of millions now unemployed and likely more by November- which will be the noose that finally hangs Trump once and for all.
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