"Conspiracy theories are usually false because the people who come up with them are outsiders to power, trying to impose narrative order on a world they don’t fully understand — which leads them to imagine implausible scenarios and impossible plots," - Russ Douthat, NY Times
"Consider the Bureau of Prison’s suicide prevention protocol. Epstein was found last month unconscious in his MCC cell with marks on his neck. If he was not on suicide watch, it would be astonishing. Yet if he were on suicide watch, his death would be virtually inconceivable.....We are not talking about inexperienced yokels. BOP personnel, especially at MCC, are the best professionals in the corrections industry, and they receive special training in administrating suicide prevention. Who better to guard against such a horrific development?"- Harry Litman, The Washington Post, Monday, 'Jeffrey Epstein's Apparent Suicide Is Unfathomable'
After billionaire financier bad boy Jeffrey Epstein's apparent suicide over the weekend, it was inevitable that the conspiracy theories would be flying..(cf. 'Conspiracy Theories Fly Online Over Epstein Death', WSJ, Aug. 13, p. A2). Of course, most of the "theories" - namely the ones spewed by Trump and the Right- which I call conspiracy hogwash- don't amount to a micro-hill of ant feces. They are made up garbage with no plausible basis, and above all, fail to provide any logical answer to the question one always raises after such events: "Cui bono?" Who benefits?
As I noted in my post of October 28, 2016 ('Separating Paranoid Balderdash From Rational Conspiracy Thinking') one must take care to separate rational and coherent conspiracy proposals from those spawned by outright kooks and whackadoodle screwballs. In the latter category we can put Alex Jones, e.g.
Jones is a confirmed, demented moron, notorious for the nutso conspiracy ideation that the Sandy Hook/Newtown massacre was a federal "false flag" operation. Those twenty kids weren't really slain, they were merely actors- as well as the teachers- in an elaborate script to befuddle the public and make them demand gun confiscation across the land.
Another conspiracy kook is Donald Trump with his "counting illegal immigrant votes" bunkum from 2017 (to explain why Hillary won the popular vote by nearly 3 million). Oh, and claiming Ted Cruz' father was in on the JFK assassination, e.g.
http://brane-space.blogspot.com/2016/05/did-rafael-cruz-help-lee-oswald-kill.html
So given Trump's history of 'kookamonga' conspiracy rubbish there is no reason at all now to put any stock into his tweets implicating Bill Clinton. This is even more perverse, in my opinion, than his paranoid codswallop from February, 2017 that Obama was bugging him. Recall this followed all the birtherism conspiracy nonsense he started in 2011.
In the end, I always go back to Barbadian psychologist Pat Bannister's categorization of those who invoke conspiracies and how she differentiated them. As part of her construction of a theory of mind, specifically showing the role of lying in young children, she also noted adeptness at detecting lies was linked to accurate detection of real conspiracies.
Bannister published several erudite papers, mainly appearing in university symposiums, showing that conspiracy investigation arose as an evolutionary adaptation to the (earlier evolved) ability to lie. In her conception, if conspiracy is among the most sophisticated forms of lying (entailing misdirecting actions as well as words) then an evolutionary "equalizer" was needed in order to expose it so this advanced lying would not be to the total future detriment of a tribe, community or nation.
Think of it: effective conspiracy (a surreptitious plan to alter outside events to a group's advantage) is not merely a simple matter of bending the truth, but bending it - usually in an extended manner over time - to achieve a specific end or manifestation in the real world. It requires not only the awareness of what's in the minds of those one conspires against and those who might try to detect the plan, but also predicting in advance how they might act or respond to prevent the conspiracy from being executed in the first place. And also predicting how future inquirers might be impeded from exposing it decades later.
Thus, as Bannister pointed out in a 1972 UWI symposium, the Kennedy assassination conspirators would have to know not only how the normal law enforcement structure would respond to an executive action (assassination), but also the official paraphernalia needed to misdirect it in the case of an accidental encounter while the plot was unfolding. (Thus, years later, with the publication of Abraham Bolden's 'The Echo From Dealey Plaza', we learned about the critical role of the stolen Secret Service Commission books which allowed conspirators to pass for security personnel.)
The conspirators would also have to be able to predict where the biggest potential threats might lurk, e. g.odd citizens with movie cameras (like Abraham Zapruder and Orville Nix) or with still cameras (like Mary Moorman). Thus, they had to have special teams ready to confiscate them. The greatest level of forward planning and cognition was reserved for the autopsy - which had to be carried out in a secure venue under full government control (not Dallas' Parkland Hospital) so that the actual entry and egress points for the bullets could be manipulated as well as x-rays, regular photographs.
In other words, taken in concert the Kennedy assassination conspiracy amounted to one of the most sophisticated lies in history, fooling a generation almost totally (other than a few original skeptics like Mark Lane) until at least the JFK Records Act required long stored documents, files be released to the public. Bannister didn't accept any given conspiracy case dismissed by the media was hopeless. Hence, whatever the conspiracy, there would always be 'x' number of critical intellects capable of detecting its mechanisms ex post facto from clues that the conspirators left behind.
In Bannister's mode of thought then, the conspiracy alert sounder had to possess a theory of mind at least equal to the conspiracy planners', certainly in finally exposing it. Yes, there could be missteps - especially given the conspiracy planning side would inevitably add further layers of lies ex post facto to throw off conspiracy investigators. These would be in the form of misinformation and disinformation (e.g. inventing whacky conspiracy theories to circulate and get many to bite then ridicule them as 'buff-based') or simply ridiculing any person that even conceives of conspiracy - no matter how well -versed or grounded the formulation is.
It was basically a race between successful gaming of the public via actual conspiratorial actions (in cover ups) and exposing it at a deeper cognitive level by those with conspiracy awareness.
This brings us to the Epstein case, which one can begin to examine by asking "Cui bono?" In the first instance this would, of course, be Epstein's pal Trump - and make no mistake Trump would have much to worry about from any Epstein testimony - should he have lived. Does this mean Trump ordered him killed? Nope. An active aggressive (as opposed to passive) modus operandi was unnecessary given last month Epstein was found last month unconscious in his MCC cell with marks on his neck. Thus, we already knew Epstein was at risk (to himself) having already had one event in which he attempted self-termination.
Hence, all that was needed was to remove the protections and safeguards present to prevent his commission of the act. In other words, some person or persons had to have merely wielded enough leverage (money?) to upend the Federal Bureau of Prisons suicide prevention protocol. Even Miami Herald reporter (Julie Brown) who was the lead journalist in exposing Epstein's crimes, agreed that this would not have been that hard to do knowing what she did about "prison culture". So payoffs would be made, likely to some higher up, then lower echelon guards would be brought into the mix say to doctor their check-in logs. Voila! Epstein is left unattended for at least one long enough period (2 hours according to reports on CBS yesterday a.m.) to do himself in.
Now that we further know (revealed yesterday) the guards may have well falsified their suicide check -ins, we have further ballast for a working conspiracy. This in the sense that missing the Epstein checks wasn't just a case of "forgetting" or blatant incompetence. No, there was clear skullduggery at work.
Now that we further know (revealed yesterday) the guards may have well falsified their suicide check -ins, we have further ballast for a working conspiracy. This in the sense that missing the Epstein checks wasn't just a case of "forgetting" or blatant incompetence. No, there was clear skullduggery at work.
This gives the basis for a rational conspiracy proposal, as opposed to the crap and brain barf we behold Donnie Dumpsterfire spewing and retweeting from the Right wing loons.
Add to this the other power players, i.e. all those "players" in sex games who could have been scalded with reputations ruined by any Epstein exposures. As we read in this NY Times piece from Aug. 12 ('The Day Jeffrey Epstein Told Me He Had Dirt On Powerful People')
"Almost exactly a year ago, on Aug. 16, 2018, I visited Jeffrey Epstein at his cavernous Manhattan mansion.
The overriding impression I took away from our roughly 90-minute conversation was that Mr. Epstein knew an astonishing number of rich, famous and powerful people, and had photos to prove it. He also claimed to know a great deal about these people, some of it potentially damaging or embarrassing, including details about their supposed sexual proclivities and recreational drug use.
So one of my first thoughts on hearing of Mr. Epstein’s suicide was that many prominent men and at least a few women must be breathing sighs of relief that whatever Mr. Epstein knew, he has taken it with him."
Or....they breathed sighs of relief that their plan had succeeded. The bribes were taken, MCC payoffs made, check-in reports falsified. The worst punishments for the offenders would be either forced unpaid leave, or reassignments, i.e. being moved to other facilities. Ho hum. This again makes the above passive conspiracy proposal the most logical and rational. IF indeed the reputations of powerful people were in play they would stop at nothing to compromise Epstein's suicide prevention protocols to prevent him talking. This leaves the three key questions:
1) Who benefited?
2) Who had the power to orchestrate the disruption of Epstein's suicide prevention protocol?
3) Who would have the power to cover it all up with a specious report?
Now you can agree with this depiction or not, after all it's only a theory - heck, maybe only a suspicion, an educated, rational conjecture. But one thing for sure Epstein's death at just this time spares a hell of a lot of power players tons of embarrassing news print. Much like Lee Oswald's killing 56 years ago, e.g.
spared a clique of conspirators from devastating exposure. Thereby ensuring an investigative charade and whitewash in the infamous "Warren Report". Hopefully, an FBI investigation will be rigorous enough to eliminate a similarly bogus "Epstein report".
In the WSJ piece I cited at the top we were informed:
"Conspiracy theories are likely to complicate probes under way by the Federal Bureau of Investigation. and the Justice Department."
However, I dispute that provided the FBI focus on the rational (and most probable) conspiracy theory I summarized in this post, and ignore the utter bilge spouted by Trump and the Right. The latter is all deflecting noise and the FBI needs to be after the signal not the noise. As for the Justice Dept. let's bear in mind that while AG Barr delivered a good patter on pursuing this case and insisting "no conspirators should rest easy" his own DOJ isn't clear. After all as pointed out yesterday (WSJ, p. A4, 'Prison Staff Put On Leave In Epstein Case'): Barr's DOJ "controlled staffing levels and other safeguards" through the 120 facilities and 180,000 inmates under the Bureau of Prisons. Hence, unless Barr investigates his own DOJ, BOP there is nothing gained by asserting conspiracy theories "complicate probes". Given all this it is evident that Barr needs to recuse himself from any future investigation, or judgments.
See also:
Opinion | Count Me Among the Jeffrey Epstein Conspiracy Theorists
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/14/opinion/jeffrey-epstein-death.html?
"To take the sudden death of such a man in stride — a man whose alleged misdeeds cast him as a veritable pimp to the elite, not to mention a monster in his own right — would be a bit irrational, I think, even if it had happened in Times Square at noon on a clear day. Yet Mr. Epstein died in a locked room guarded by agents of the same establishment, the same power structure that he so broadly and horribly corrupted."
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