Monday, November 9, 2020

What Are The Delaunay Variables? How Are They Used In Celestial Mechanics?

 


The Delaunay variables play an important role in celestial mechanics, especially in perturbation theory.  That is concerned with how the presence of a third body (say m 3  in the accompanying diagram) perturbs or disturbs the motion of m 2.  These variables are defined by the equations:

ℓ  =   n(t  - T)

L =  Ö(m a)

G  =   L    Ö (1 -   e 2)

H =   G cos i

g   =  w

h  =   Ω


The symbols used are standard, e.g.  w   is the argument of the perihelion, W is the longitude of the ascending node, e is the eccentricity, a is the semi-major axis of the orbit,   and i is the inclination of the orbit.   Also, n is the mean motion (i.e. of the planet or other body per day),  T is the date of perihelion, t is any future date assigned,  and m  is the reduced mass, i.e.

m =   1/ (1/m 2   + 1/ m 3)

As with all similar problems in Hamiltonian mechanics, the approach begins with the applicable Hamiltonian for the system (see diagram).  In its most general form we write:

H  =   ½ å 3 i=1  P i 2    -  m / r  +  R

After modification and as a function of the Delaunay variables (L, ℓ):

H  (L,  ℓ  )  =   -  m 2 / 2 L 2  -  k 2  m 3    {1/  D (L,  ℓ  )  +   r ·  r 3   /   r 3  2 }

A particular set of differential equations will always be associated with the new Hamiltonian, e.g.

L’ =    -  H  / ℓ        ℓ    =     H  / L

g ‘  =   H  / G          h’ =    H  / H

G’ =   -    H  / g     H’  =  -    H  / h

 A huge simplification arrives  if R = 0., which then reduces to the 2-body problem, which we've examined in previous blog posts.   Note that R in the second Hamiltonian is expressed:

R   =   k 2  m 3    {1/  D (L,  ℓ  )  +   r ·  r 3   /   r 3  2 }

Now, for the case at hand (consult diagram), we may write:

D 2     =  r  2   +   r 3  2    -   2 r ·  r 3  cos S

 And:  r ·  r 3  =   r   r 3  cos S

Assume now that r 3  is greater than r (perturbing an inner planet or body by an outer one):

1 /D      =  1/r [ 1 + (r / r 3)  2  -  2 (r / r 3)  cos S] 1/2

Then the above can be rewritten as the sum:

½ å ¥ r= 0  (r / r 3) i  P i 

=   1/  r 3  [ P o   +   (r / r 3)  P 1   + (r / r 3)  2  P 2    +  ...]

The P i   are functions of the angle S and are called Legendre polynomials.  In this case, the first three may be written:

P o   =   1,      P 1     =   cos S,    P 2     =   ½ (3  cos 2 S   -   1) 


Problem for ambitious readers:

Using the Legendre functions for the angle S just given rewrite the perturbation term R in terms of them.

Thence or otherwise, rewrite a Hamiltonian incorporating R and these functions.   From this, write out the form of at least one applicable differential equation incorporating Delaunay variables and explain your basic procedure (say for the Delaunay variables L, G,  ℓ and g.)

For those really wanting a challenge:  Estimate the magnitude of the error in the modified Hamiltonian H  in terms of k and   m 3.  (You can take  m 3 =  mass of Jupiter,  m 2 = mass  of Earth, and a 3 =  semi-major axis of Jupiter).   Make sure your reference Hamiltonian conforms with these.

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Sunday, November 8, 2020

Can Biden Heal The Nation If Trumpies Refuse To Accept Reality Of Dotard's Defeat? Doubtful


Trump pointing blame at media (top)  and image of  flag under Trump shown in multiple media (TIME, FT etc)  under 'American Reality'.    A divided nation we better get back.

"The question before us is:  If the lawful election process goes forward, will the president's supporters accept the lawful result even if he is encouraging them not to." -  Jon Meacham, presidential historical author

"The American people have fired the most corrupt,  incompetent, indecent and lethal president in American history.  We will now have a decent man at the top and he will work tirelessly to bring this nation together.  We will finally see the institutional vandalism come to a fast end."   Steve Schmidt, former Republican strategist, on MSNBC Saturday

"The peaceful transition of government between presidents, and particularly between presidents of opposing parties, is the most critical underpinning of our republic—it’s what holds us together as a nation, however bitterly fought elections might be. And right now, they’re about as bitter as they’ve been since the Civil War. Every day in which two-time popular vote-losing impeached lame duck Donald Trump refuses to acknowledge his loss, and every day in which a Republican Party now led by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell allows him to keep up this fraudulent fight, is a day that’s more dangerous to the country as a whole."  - Joan McCarter, Daily Kos

"Most still-rational Americans, watching Donald Trump's atrocity of a press conference on Thursday night, had two simultaneous reactions: Wow, that man really is the worst living American, and also, yeah, this is all over except for the paperwork.

It was an odd mix of emotions. There was the disgust of watching the actual president of the actual United States demand that legal votes be thrown out insinuating that millions of American voters were somehow fakes. But there was also the relief of seeing Trump's facade of bravado collapsing, exposing the loser that was always hiding behind that wall of bluster."  - Amanda Marcotte,  'Hey, FOX News Go Home! It's Time To Admit The Trump Party's Over'

The  header of this post is not merely rhetorical.  There were 70.4 million fellow Americans that voted for this 'Lord of Misrule'  and Hitler wannabe for one reason or another.  The 2nd biggest block of voters in American history for one election.  These people aren't going away, and the question - despite the millions in the street celebrating the Biden victory - is what becomes of them?  Specifically: Will they become constructive citizens to enable our nation to recover from its Trumpian depredations?  Or will they become a bitter, aggrieved fifth column out to undermine the critical Biden presidency?   The answer may well determine whether this nation prospers or sinks and disintegrates as other democracies have done.

Sen. Dick Durbin, perhaps overcome by the joy of the moment, told the Washington Post:  

“The national nightmare of President Donald J. Trump ends in eleven weeks."

But Mike Littwin, writing in the Colorado Springs Independent ('The Nightmare Will Continue') warns:  "Whatever happens next Trump will retain a hold on the American psyche."

To be sure this will be a negative hold and indeed, toxic, given we already see how his enablers are destroying any faith this election was legitimate - and hence that President-elect Joe Biden is legitimate. This will give Trump's followers license to act as an inimical force causing much turmoil and possibly years of civil unrest. I already indicated in my previous post how Trump himself  has taken a flame thrower to our electoral system, e.g.

This is despite even the Murdoch media orbit now unifying to tell Trump to try to display a note of dignity and grace.  But the man is incapable of it, tuned only to vengeance, fear and hate. We also knew from the get go Donald Trump, the primping slimeball poseur, would never concede if he lost.  Most sensible citizens who voted to take this nation back from the brink of an authoritarian nightmare, knew this.  However, Donald Trump understood he could not let down his 88 million Twitter followers- who hang on his every garbled word -  in the midst of the Biden win catastrophe.  (The first time in nearly three decades an incumbent has been kicked out of office after one term. )

But not so fast.  Even as I write this, Trump's legal team has vowed to go to the mat, and one saw Jonathan Turley on FOX news Saturday night blabbing that: "There have been affidavits that have come forward suggesting episodic errors such as poll workers ignoring dates. But the much more serious question is whether systemic errors occurred such as ballots not being authenticated properly. That would affect all the ballots".  

Implying that if this applied in Pennsylvania then all the counted ballots might be thrown out, hence Turley's mock regret that "I feel like a wedding crasher at a wedding reception."

 But it was encouraging to read in The Denver Post Saturday (p. 1A):

But none of the dozen or so lawsuits they had brought in battleground states appeared to be gaining any traction in the courts. And in any case, none seemed likely to give Trump the edge he would need in vote counts in the states that will determine the outcome.

In seeking to foment widespread doubt about the legitimacy of the election, Trump and his surrogates seemed less focused on substantive legal arguments that could hold up in court than on bolstering the president’s political narrative, unsupported by the facts, that he was somehow being robbed of a second term.

Thus, it is indeed all merely political theater waged by a desperate punk who knows he will soon be a private citizen and subject to the full force of the law for his sundry crimes in office.   But never mind, this political theater is intended to have a deleterious effect: to reinforce the conspiracy ideations of Trump's 70 million -plus voters so they never have to accept the incoming administration.  Thereby kneecapping Joe Biden in his quest for healing the nation (and moving beyond demonization)  from the very outset.

So let's assume Trump's desperate legal team fails in its bid to scotch the election this morning, as they've been failing with other efforts. The question remains of whether his mentally twisted groupies and cult followers  will ever get back to reality and accept his loss.  The answers thus far aren't sanguine.  Interviews with assorted Trump supporters, voters in the Sunday Denver Post showed how much in denial they remain about any Trump loss.  According to one diehard Trump supporter, Jake Angeli:

"Trump always looks like he's going to lose and then he wins."

Another South Dakota farmer and Trump voter, Scott Vamder Wal insisted  Trump could still contest the results and "find a path to victory", adding:   "I wouldn't say it's totally over until all the legal avenues are exhausted."

In effect, all these Trumpers are kept hoping inside their detached rabbit holes as long as Trump keeps fighting, and pursuing specious court cases- none of which have worked and amount to something like a "primal scream" according to one MSNBC legal analyst.  The gimmick - which many Repuke stalwarts continue to support- keeps the Plebes hopeful but also denying reality - and worse, accepting the election has really been stolen.  This is not a recipe for comity or peaceful transition - but perhaps it is the political warfare that  the Reeps want.  If so, both sides need to collaborate to stop it. In the words of one Denver Post opinion writer (Doug Friednash) today:  

"We voters need to let the representatives we've elected know that the partisan blood sport is over. We now expect them to do the governing we expect them to do."

 As an article in the WaPo noted after Biden's victory speech Saturday night:

"The president has greeted the prospect of defeat with obstinance and disbelief, whipping up his loyalists with a fusillade of lies to believe the election was stolen. The legal battles will continue, and Trump’s rhetoric aims to make Biden an illegitimate president in the eyes of Trump Nation, even before the president-elect is sworn in."

As the near final tally for both candidates shows, support for Trump is completely unprecedented in our lifetime. Over 70 million votes thus far, or nearly 7 million more than he got in 2016.  That is how many of our countrymen were prepared to risk  driving this nation off an authoritarian cliff with attendant loss of whatever democracy we have left - after Trump has ripped it to shreds. As a piece in The Toronto Star asked on Saturday: 'What the hell is wrong with Americans"?'    Well, the short answer is that this orange Orang posing as a man has bamboozled them.  

That plus their willingly stepping into and indulging in the fever swamps of wild, unhinged conspiracy ideations. For example, QAnon, which accepts without a scintilla of evidence that the Democrats are a pack of pedophiles who worship Satan and drink the blood of children. Exaggeration?  I refer to the same Toronto Star piece where one read about the travails of a Biden supporter in the midst of one band of Trumpies:

"Anger broke out when one man, who identified himself as Ron Russ, walked slowly through the crowd carrying a Biden-Harris sign. Speaking briefly to media, he said he did it to give voice to the Biden supporters in the state, unrepresented in the crowd of hundreds of Trump supporters.   As for the latter, they immediately shouted "Pedophile!" and "Communist!"  at Russ."

Pedophile?  Where the hell did these blithering numskulls get that?  Well, again, from the QAnon fantasy conspiracy playbook. See also:

The same mental quagmire is where these deadheads got the 'Communist" epithet. Well, indirectly. They likely heard the word "socialism" bandied about as a threat attached to Biden and Harris, with the subtext that "AOC" would seek to rule them.  And so they conflated socialism with communism - and ended up calling Mr. Russ a commie.  Well, what do you expect of semi-educated bird brains?

All of this is the result of a balkanized social media system that encourages uncritical conflation and is a major ongoing mind fuck of more than half the country.  Back to the Toronto Star piece we run into one Phoenix woman  named Chloe Castleberry, who held up a sign reading: Smells like Voter Fraud - and  babbled to the Canuck reporter:

"People adore him. We need to see where the fake ballots are coming in at!"

 According to the same piece, "there is no way, given what she has seen of support for Trump, that the vote count favouring Biden is legitimate". 

And:

"Trump supporters like Castleberry cite right-wing “whistleblowers” who have been making allegations of vote tampering and dumping, as evidence that America’s democracy is under attack."

Further on we read about "one group of four women from L.A. who drove six hours to Phoenix for the (Maricopa, AZ)  rally. They said they believe Biden and the democrats are trying to steal the election, and are furious that Facebook and Twitter have taken steps to remove or correct posts claiming election fraud is taking place."

No, you cannot make this screwy shit up, or the extent of brain fucks these women manifest.  Or when one (a Janelle Riviera)  expounds thus:

“These are very important things and for it to be censored, it’s ridiculous. Our democracy is on the line. Our freedom is on the line.”

Good grief, woman!  Your freedom and our democracy were on the line with Trump's authoritarianism!  Didn't you see what he did in Lafayette Square in D.C. this past summer? 

 As I observed in my November 6th  post: These pathetic creatures can in some way be given a limited dispensation, probably with condition they seek therapy or some mental help.  After all, their brains have been gutted by the lies spewed from their orange master, Dotard.   As my psychology post doc niece put it:  "They could each use about 1,000 hours of online therapy along with some good anti-psychotic meds - when it sinks in that Trump is not going to be around for a  second term."   

 Sadly, these Trumpers are convinced they've been screwed by the election system itself (and the majority voting side)  as opposed to Trump who's played his biggest con on them:  Accepting that one of the better functioning election systems in the world is their enemy. And that - following Trump and the wishes of the Russians - it is better to destroy it and those who voted in it (to supersede their pro-Trump votes) than accept it and move on.    

Joe Biden's appeal to national healing is noble and welcome, but as I wrote in my post of October 13:  "As a consequentialist (and atheist) this is also my position, that the world can only be better in the future with Trump out of it. No more rage tweeting, sowing political discord or conspiracy mongering - especially if a President Biden is trying to get the nation back to normality and functionality.  If Trump were to be taken down by the virus this better world would manifest.  It is true his zombies would remain and still be full of "piss and vinegar" - likely their grievances spilling into the streets (especially if the election is close) but there would be no more insane tweets to feed their froth, and fuel their bigotry."

I  stand by that assessment, especially after seeing what this disgusting traitor has unleashed against our nation's election system in the past six days.  Hence, there can be no "healing" as a nation until and unless Trump is out of the picture, full stop.  Out how? Take your pick: Covid relapse, brain aneurysm, heart attack, fall down the WH steps, who the hell knows?  But as long as he's around the national nightmare will continue  - because you can't make peace with rats, especially when they're traitors.  

Too hyperbolic an assessment?  Not according to one political analyst quoted in the current issue of TIME (p. 33):

 "Trump isn't going away.  He's still going to be the leader of the party and the biggest voice. And he'll at least flirt with the idea of running again (in 2024). It's going to continue to be a populist, grievance-fueled party."  

 Which is terrible news for this country, which will never heal, or reduce the divisions until the side with grievances grows up, does some self-examination, and opts to join the constructive citizenry.  

Currently a widespread trope making the rounds among pundits in different print media, e.g. WSJ, FT, TIME is that:  

"Americans are by and large entrenched in their cultural tribes and virtually nothing can budge them."   

This has been expressed, for example,  by David French in TIME (p. 40), by Janan Ganesh of the FT, and Stephen Carter of Bloomberg News.  Carter went so far as to suggest Democrats committed a form of "moral hazard" by holding Trump's vile tendencies, psychotic mindset and incompetence about the virus up to examination. After all, those who voted Trump (over 70 million) mostly didn't give a shit or believed their 401ks or safety were more important.  

But the Dems were not wrong, and an agglomeration of voters who favor a mendacious authoritarian and Russian puppet-  who's presided over a pandemic which has seen 236,000 dead, and an economic collapse - have to be 52 cards short of a full deck, sorry.  The truth is that most of this lot are buried in conspiracy ideations that don't even make the cut of theories. And as long as they are prepared to sacrifice their brains, this nation is headed into the crapper.   The words of James Madison are relevant here:

"Knowledge will forever govern ignorance, and a people who mean to be their own governors must arm themselves with the power which knowledge gives. Popular government, without popular information, or the means of acquiring it, is but a Prologue to a Farce or a Tragedy -- or perhaps  both. "


See Also:

 | 

The GOP Has a Decision to Make: It's Either Trump or America

And:
Joe Biden Won, but We Lost: There's No Doubt Who We Are Now, and It Ain't Pretty

And:
Can Biden Heal America when Trump and his Allies Don’t Want it Healed?

And:

How Trump’s erratic behavior and failure on coronavirus doomed his reelection


And:


And:
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Friday, November 6, 2020

Trump Has Done More Damage To Our Electoral System Than Russian Bots - Or GRU Agents



 That Donald Trump's name  - even long after he's gone- will live in infamy, is by now well- acknowledged by sentient citizens.  Even if his reality-detached, mentally- deranged crackpot followers still worship him as an orange demigod and are unable to process he will soon be history, e.g.   


These pathetic creatures can in some way be given a limited dispensation, probably with condition they seek therapy or some mental help.  After all, their brains have been gutted by the lies spewed from their orange master, Dotard.   As my psychology post doc niece put it:  "They could each use about 1,000 hours of online therapy along with some good anti-psychotic meds - when it sinks in that Trump is not going to be around for a  second term."  

No similar dispensations or excuses can be made for Trump who- in the space of about ten minutes last night:  "took a pick axe to our election system".  Those the words of former Missouri Senator Claire McCaskill, so appalled by the outrageous claims and vile lies regurgitated about our just concluded election.   Not only did he do vast,  possibly irreparable damage with his reckless reference to a "coup" and "illegal ballots",   he also sowed the seeds of potential civil violence.  This is if his legion of zombies and cult followers  are unable to process the reality of his loss. (Hell, HE can't process the reality of his impending loss!)    

But the point is that with his wild and reckless claims, Traitor Trump (in conjunction with FOX News' lackeys like Tucker Carlson) have arguably done more damage to our electoral system - especially torpedoing citizen trust- than 1 billion Russkie bots on Facebook  - and 1000 Russian GRU agents working overtime to spread disinformation.    What's even worse is that the GOP Senate Sewer rats - like Lindsey Graham and Ted Cruz- are helping to spread the same garbage and false claims of voter fraud. Hence, these vermin are accomplices to Trump's destruction of our electoral system, and hence also traitors to our constitution and democracy.  (Which we knew already when they voted to keep him around after he was impeached.)

I didn't think things could get much worse -  after the election - when Trump prematurely barked out that  he was the winner, at 2:30 in the morning Wednesday.  But they did get worse later that night when QAnon goons and imps began protesting - long guns in hand - at the Maricopa,, AZ   vote processing center as well as  targeting the TFC Center in Detroit 

Then, instead of quieting the roiling and raw emotions percolating inside so many  - who believed counting ballots is the same as "stealing votes"  - Trump and his allies among the GOP's Senate rats began pumping up the volume of lies, innuendo and baseless claims, disinformation.  

Lindsey Graham at first tried to remain silent as Trump fulminated, then "earned a Twitter rebuke from Trump, 'No one is surprised!''"  according to an FT report.  After that, the  shameless Trump asslicker  went 'all in' and "promised $500,000 for a fund to fight legal battles".   He even went so far as to insist Trump could have all the votes in Pennsylvania "quarantined"  and then on Dec. 14 appoint Trump-friendly state electors to cast electoral votes for him.   There is your real coup and I can tell Lindsey now it would not go down well if implemented.   Anyone recall what transpired after Martin Luther King was assassinated in 1968? 

One would have thought that since these same lower level GOP minions may also need the election system one day to further their aspirations, that they'd show more respect for it.  But they obviously do not care.  They'd rather destroy faith in the system now among many millions of voters, just to appease Trump.  Why?  One theory offered is that they need his Twitter base to keep getting elected.  So their party and position in it is more important than the nation or our election system. Let them recall their actions when that system is totally destroyed after being currently delegitmized  through their cowardice and collusion.

From Belleau Wood to Iwo Jima to the beaches of Normandy, hundreds of thousands have died for the right these wretched, cynical, sore loser imps and traitors so shamelessly defile now.  But I suppose we ought not be surprised when Trump himself dismissed those heroes as "suckers and losers"  mere months ago for sacrificing their lives, e.g.

Americans Who Died in War Are 'Losers ... - The Atlantic

The take this morning, e.g. from John Dickerson and Major Garrett on CBS, is that Trump will not concede even after Biden is designated President- elect.   Garrett's take was that basic civics may need to be re- taught to Trump, in particular  that there are certain rules that must be followed in any transition.  However, given that Trump has blown past all existing rules and norms that may not matter. 

 As one legal specialist on MSNBC put it, all the legal moves by the Trump cabal are merely PR sideshows and "political theater" meant to pump up the base and keep the mentally-challenged minions agitated.  All screaming that the "illegal ballots" (e.g. mail ballots)  are being counted while the real "legal" ones (same day ballots at polls) are ignored. Too ignorant to grasp that BOTH ballots are legitimate so Trump's efforts at casting illegitimacy on this election - because of widespread use of mail ballots- is simply sour grapes.  But magnified to the point of a malignant trope designed to keep civil unrest going for months.  

Russian GRU agents,  who for months had sought to interfere in our election system (seeding bots and disinfo on social media),  must be overjoyed now. That our own so-called leaders (especially a sitting president)  have ably done their nefarious work for them, i.e. in targeting and undermining our election -  and setting us at each other's throats.  

Trump and his family, political acolytes,  need to grok that the greatest majority of voting Americans in history - nearly 75 million - have made their choice known and decided to fire Trump for his incompetence, unfitness for office and endless gaslighting and sowing division.  He needs to finally put on his big boy pants and acknowledge he needs to go into the sunset without fanning more flames of unrest or questioning the legitimacy of this election.

Or admit he's  been a Russian plant and puppet all along.

See Also:

 | 
Clown Coup: Trump's Effort to Overthrow Democracy as Well-run as His Business (and Presidency)

by Amanda Marcotte | November 6, 2020 - 7:31am | permalink

— from Salon

And:

The Boy Who Called Fraud

by Heather Cox Richardson | November 6, 2020 - 7:40am | permalink

— from BillMoyers.com

And:

 | 
Trump's Nuisance Lawsuits to Interfere with the Vote Count Are Failing

And:
America Is Now a Corpse
by Chris Hedges | November 6, 2020 - 6:20am | permalink

— from Scheerpost

And:

Listening To Trump Leaves Me Speechless
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Thursday, November 5, 2020

Solutions To Matrix Groups Problems:

 1. For the group PSL(2,z) show that the identity element (e)

= s 4 =   t 3 .

Solution:

The identity element e =

[1 0]
[01]


While s =

(0 1)
(-1 0)

And t =

(0 -1)
(1 -1)

One therefore simply needs to multiply s x s x s x s in order to obtain e (using the rules of matrix multiplication) and t x t x t, to find e in the same.

2. (a) For the group sl(2) show that:(a) [h.f] = h*f - f*h = -2f

The "Casimir element", C, of sl(2) is defined according to:

h 2  / 2 + h + 2f*e

find the element

Solutions:

Again, using the elements h and f as defined, we multiply:

h*f - f*h =

(0 0)
(-2 0)

And since f =

(0 0)
(1 0)

It means that the relation: h*f - f*h = -2f


(b) By matrix multiplication, we determine:  h 2  / 2  =

(½ 0)
(0 ½)

And adding the matrix h yields:

(1½   0)
(0    -½)


Now, adding 2fe =

(0 0)
(0 2) 

Therefore:  C =

(1½    0)
(0    1½)

3. Show that the Klein Viergruppe, V4, is Abelian.

Solution:

This is easily shown by matrix multiplication for which we will find:

a*b = b*a =

(-1 0)
(0 -1)

And: a*c = c*a =

(-1 0)
(0 1)

And finally, b*c = c*b =

(1 0)
(0 -1)

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Diatribes & Digressions About This General Election

 The diatribes I have concerning this election aren't just small or middling ones, but major ginormous rage reactions.   Instead of consuming at least three posts spelling them out,  let me confine attention to the top five:

1)   The cowardly twerp and sore loser Trump finding it necessary to interfere in ongoing close battleground state counts.   That includes filing lawsuits in Pennsylvania, Georgia and Michigan and demanding a recount in Wisconsin.  See e.g.

Trump campaign mounts legal barrage in three states

 As MSNBC's Ari Melber put it: "Only a losing candidate demands ballot counting be stopped when he's behind."

But this is Donald Trump, a graceless, classless and bombastic cretin who's lost over his whole miserable life - from lousy casino deals, to Trump University, and even a Trump Foundation charity (Trump paid $25 million to students of his Trump University to settle fraud accusations. His charitable foundation was shut down after the authorities found a “shocking pattern of illegality.”)

This time the jig is up early and Trump knows it which is why he's desperately trying to use "infantile" frivolous  lawsuits (in the words of  Nicole Wallace) to halt  ballot tabulation to try to delay the process enough to miss the certification deadline of December 14.  If he can do that he believes he can then pick his own state electors to squeeze him back into power.  Or, failing that, he thinks he can take one state (probably Pennsylvania) and make a case to the Supreme Court for a win.

2)   The entire abominable polling  process  - which once again misled observers and voters -  especially Dems expecting a huge blowout.   The polling approaching election day had Biden up by an average of 8-9 points nationally and at least 5-6 points in each battleground state.   But as the results rolled in Tuesday night it was clear these numbers amounted to a major misfire and poll models came under intense scrutiny and criticism.   

Just look at the Senate races and how the Dem candidates were often polling far ahead (e.g Cunningham over Thom Tillis by 10 pts in NC) but ended up losing.    The way it looks right now, the Dems probably won't retake the Senate despite hundred of millions being pumped  into key races, especially the $100 m into Jaime Harrison's South Carolina battle with Lindsey Graham.

 A possible cause of this national polling fiasco appeared in one NY Times op-ed over the weekend, quoting one Trumpkin who bragged: "We got all our under 45 year old guys either pranking the pollsters  or not picking up the phone at all, or giving misleading answers."

If that's true the next iteration of  election polling needs to somehow take such misdirection into account.   Either that, or people will no longer ascribe any credibility to polls, dismissing them all as "fake".  

3) Repuke goons and Trumpie renegades  mobbing election centers - as in Maricopa County, Arizona last night  as well as  targeting the TFC Center in Detroit -   and screaming epithets, like the "Brooks Brothers" mobsters during the Florida recount back in 2000.   Of course, these fools in their MAGA caps were turbo-charged by Trump's reckless claims of fraud in the ballot- counting process and prematurely claiming himself as the "winner" early yesterday morning.  This was at his ridiculous White House "victory party".  (He evidently "lost it" when he saw on a large screen that FOX News had called Arizona for Biden, demolishing his "victory" meme one time.)

All Trump did with his deranged nonsense is to make it more difficult for his cult to face reality when it arrives.  One journalist who's covered Central America, averred last night the shrieking mobs in Arizona, as well as Michigan, reminded him of what he observed in failed states in those other places - usually ruled by dictators.  We cannot allow these Trump-infected goons to close down post-election ballot counts in this country.  If they need to be removed at the point of a gun, so be it

4)  Democrats in Florida failing big time to craft coherent narratives to counter the anti-socialist claptrap spewed and circulated by Miami's Cubans.    I first learned about the right wing Cubans' tactics on Bill Maher's (October 17) Real Time show featuring actor John Leguizamo.    Leguizamo told Maher how he had been registering Columbian voters in Miami-Dade County and then found out their Whats App feeds were being blasted by anti-socialist screeds and propaganda.  He told Maher that he believed it affected up to 400,000 potential Latino Biden voters.  Well, as it turned out the Cubans clearly succeeded in their campaign to terrify Latinos - including Venezuelans, Puerto Ricans, Columbians - away from Biden and the Dems using the socialist bogey.  

Former RNC chair  Michael Steele -  interviewed on MSNBC Morning Joe yesterday -  laid much of the blame on Democrats for failing to craft  and circulate a counter narrative to offset the Cubans' influence.  Also on failing to mobilize a get out the vote Latino effort in time.  This, he said, is why Miami-Dade had 200,000 fewer votes for Democrats this time around including loss of a House seat.

5) White suburban women in several Ohio counties going 54% for Trump after being influenced by his "law and order" BS, e.g. "I'm trying to protect you women in those suburbs"  etc.   Just enough of these women were  probably affected to toss Ohio into the 'red' column.  Later exit polls showed college educated white women broke almost evenly for Trump and Biden. This marked a 7 points loss from what Hillary garnered in 2016.  What happened?  Assuming they are as much against pussy grabbing now as they were then, we must deduce they fell for Trump's law and order scare tactics - especially after seeing the scenes of looting in the cities over the summer.  So much for critical thinking in college education!

Digressions:

1)   Ok, no more $100 million infusions into any single Senate campaign.  I applauded Jaime Harrison and his bold push to oust the slimy weasel Lindsey Graham - but I made one donation to that end.   He ended up with nearly $100 million in moola and got blown out by    56.1% to   42.6%   How much did I contribute to this futile effort?  One donation of 10 bucks. What I once put down in a Vegas Sports Book for the Packers to beat the Niners several years back - and lost.

2)  Many progressive voters (including Janice) are fretting over how a Biden administration will get anything passed  assuming there is another McConnell -ruled Senate.  As I told her,  I am hopeful there will be less Reep obstruction with Trump out of the picture,  s0 no longer holding GOP Senators hostage. But if that is not the case a President Biden would  have no choice except to govern - like Obama had to  - by issuing executive orders.  And his first item of business must be to kill all Trump's executive orders.  After that,  he has to replace Bill Barr at the DOJ.  Even if that means using a temporary appointment - if any Republican Senate prevents a Biden nominee confirmation.  (There is a remote chance we could win two runoff races in GA and control the Senate with a Biden win. )

Fortunately, as the FT's Edward Luce observed in a recent essay, U.S. Presidents have almost unilateral power in foreign relations.  So Biden can bring the U.S. back into the global community of nations,, beginning with re-entering the Paris Climate Accord, then repairing relations with NATO, and also the World Health Organization - which Dotard threatened to leave.  The delirious FT op-ed nabob Janan Ganesh has recently whined ('A Fickle U.S. Cannot Lead The World') that it would be sad if U.S. foreign policy changes again, say on the Iranian nuclear deal and other issues, because this gives the image of a  "fickle" American state,  hostage to whoever is president.  Well, sorry, Janan, but that's the way it is!  We can't have the policies of a criminal resident like Donald Trump being the last word!

Biden will also be able to return all those scientists to their various agencies (NOAA, EPA etc.) that Trump marginalized or expelled. So it's not like he's totally impotent or a "lame duck".

3) About the only option left now for the Right's media is to keep bragging about how Trump "increased his base, his supporters".  Yeah, he did, to about 69 million (from 63 million) which is a damned disgrace.  But these nabobs fail to also observe how Biden and the Democrats increased their popular vote support to the largest ever, over 71 million. 

4) It's clear Biden is close to an electoral college win without Ohio.  So let's hear no more pundit babble about "As Ohio goes so goes the nation...."  Yadda Yadda.

5)  When all the post-election hubbub and protests die down it will be clear that democracy in this country isn't all it's cracked up to be  - and remains on life support - even given a Biden administration.  Biden vows to unite all Americans, red and blue states - into the United States.  That's a noble aspiration but don't look for it to manifest in this riven nation anytime soon.

No thanks to Trump!  

See Also:

America Wakes Up to a Near Worst-Case Scenario

by Will Bunch | November 5, 2020 - 8:07am | permalink

— from The Philadelphia Inquirer

And:

What’s that Electoral College for Again?

by Heather Cox Richardson | November 5, 2020 - 7:51am | permalink

— from BillMoyers.com

And:

 | 
Trumpism Is Alive and Well — and It Won’t Go Away Even If Trump Does

by William Rivers Pitt | November 5, 2020 - 7:24am | permalink

— from Truthout

Excerpt:

The final results of the 2020 presidential and congressional elections remain unresolved this morning. Even absent an outcome, there are many in the U.S. and around the world who will call Tuesday’s closer-than-expected election a disaster, an abject national humiliation, and a punch in the throat to every medical professional who waded into Donald Trump’s pandemic wearing trash bags and masks dipped in Lysol so they could help save lives...

Many devoutly believed Trump needed to be thoroughly and unquestionably routed last night, and not just to avoid a protracted and messy legal battle that could wind up before a badly compromised Supreme Court. More than that, the hope for a full Trump routing last night was also a hope that the entire grotesquerie that is Trumpism itself might be torn down, burned and buried under salted earth before the watching eyes of the whole wide world.

Well, after a huge turnout, that did not happen. Instead, an election that many expected to be a Democratic “Blue Wave” has become a nip and tuck affair that has seen Democrats actually lose seats in the House of Representatives. Democrats still hold the majority in that chamber, but it is a slimmer one today, and the GOP minority will surely be emboldened after outstripping expectations. Dreams of a Democratic Senate majority are slowly but surely falling to dust.

Ah, yes. Expectations, otherwise known as “polls,” form an entire industry that has once again proven itself unequal to the task it claims expertise in. I’m not one to casually quote neoconservative fiends like John Podhoretz, but in this specific instance, he cuts it right down to the bone.

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