Friday, February 28, 2025
Wednesday, February 26, 2025
Solar Superflare Potential Now Accepted As More Common Than Once Believed
Superflares, monstrous explosions from our Sun that have occurred in the past, could wreak havoc on our little world - its technological infrastructure and life forms. Habitually, they have been written off as "unlikely" but this may be premature. From the time of my original paper linking sunspots to solar flares,
http://adsabs.harvard.edu/full/1983SoPh...88..137A
It’s been known that solar flares are closely correlated with sunspot group evolution and that the intensity of solar flare eruptions is related to the size of sunspot groups, the number of sunspots in groups, and the complexity of the magnetic field. The more complex the structures and magnetic field polarities are, the more likely large solar flares will erupt.
Now, a new paper ('Sun-like stars produce superflares roughly once per century') by Vasilyev et al. has found superflares are much more common for sunlike stars than originally believed. This is also supported by a paper delivered by Yuto Notsu at the Solar Dynamics Observatory workshop, e.
Here is the core finding: Vasilyev et al. investigated brightness measurements of 56,000 Sun-like stars observed by the Kepler space telescope. They identified almost 3000 bright stellar flares with energies ranging from 1034 to 1035 erg, which are called superflares. The occurrence rate is about one superflare per star per century. If the Sun behaves like the stars in this sample, then it could produce superflares at a similar rate. Prof. Kazunari Shibata also indicated - in his June, 2020 presentation- that such superflares were conceivable for the Sun. He used the diagram below:
Stellar superflares are energetic outbursts of electromagnetic radiation that are similar to solar flares but release more energy, up to 1036 erg on main-sequence stars. True it's unknown whether the Sun can generate superflares and, if so, how often they might occur. But one can't rule them out. Vasilyev et al. identified 2889 superflares on 2527 Sun-like stars, out of 56,450 observed. This detection rate indicates that superflares with energies >1034 erg occur roughly once per century on stars with Sun-like temperature and variability. The resulting stellar superflare frequency-energy distribution is consistent with an extrapolation of the Sun’s flare distribution to higher energies, so they suggested that both are generated by the same physical mechanism.
If twist in the magnetic field is the key signature then one can surmise that a large enough sunspot, say > 3500 msh in area, and subjected to a twist or shear of its magnetic field, could reach the point of releasing a 1034 to 1035 erg solar flare.
The twist for a magnetic flux tube is defined:
T(r) = (L B q(r))/ (r B z (r))
Let L be the length of the giant flux tube bearing the sunspot proposed by Shibata. Then r is the radius and B q(r)) and B z (r)) denote the respective magnetic field components. The tube becomes kink unstable when: T(r) >2p. If enough free energy has been accumulated it can then potentially be released.
Solutions To Calculus Center Of Mass Problems
1) A straight, thin rod PQ of length 2a of constant cross sectional area A is of variable density, r.
Given r = ro (1 + 2x 2 / a 2) where x is the distance along the rod from the end of P and ro is a constant. Find the position of the center of mass.
Solution:
We make use of the sketch below with blackened element dx and distance x from P.
The volume element can then be expressed:
dV= A dr x
and the mass element: dm = Adx r
Where r is the density. Then we can write:
dm = A dx ro (1 + 2x 2 / a 2)
The x -coordinate of the center of mass of dm is x, so therefore:
x =
ò 2a 0 x. Adx ro ( 1 + 2x 2 / a 2) / ò 2a 0 Adx ro ( 1 + 2x 2 / a 2)
x = A ro ò 2a 0 ( 1 + 2x 2 / a 2) dx /A ro ò 2a 0 ( 1 + 2x 2 / a 2) dx
= [x 2 /2 + 2x4 /4a 2] 2a 0 / [x + 2x3 /3a 2] 2a 0
= (2a 3 + 8 a 2) / (2a + 16a/3) = 15a/ 11 (from end of P)
2) Find the center of mass of a solid hemisphere of radius r if the density at any point P is proportional to the distance of P from the base of the hemisphere. (Hint: Add another lower latitutde layer to the upper latitude circle below to form a thin slice of thickness dy. Then imagine the whole hemisphere cut into slices of thickness dy, i.e. by planes perpendicular to the y-axis)
Solution:
Below I show the hemisphere again with the lower latitude circle added and slice thickness dimension dy indicated, which will provide the basis for integration:
Note: We imagine the entire solid cut into slices of thickness dy so can write:
dV = A(y) dy as the volume of the representative slice at distance y above the base of the hemisphere (which lies in the x-z plane). The area of a face of the slice dV is:
A(y) = p x 2 where: x 2 + y 2 = r 2
And so: dV = A(y) dy = p (r 2 - y 2) dy
With mass element: dm = kp (r 2 - y 2) y dy
The center of mass of the 'ground' slice may then be taken at the geometrical center (x, y, z) = (0, y, 0) or:
y = ò y dm / ò dm
= ò r 0 kp (r 2 - y 2) y dy / ò r 0 kp (r 2 - y 2) dy
= kp [r 2 y3 /3 - y5 /5 ] r 0 / kp [r 2 y2 /2 - y4 /4 ] r 0
y = 8r/ 15
Monday, February 24, 2025
Looking Back On Last Week's Solar Dynamics Workshop - One Of The Best Meetings I've Ever Attended
The Solar Dynamics 2025 workshop last week was one for the ages, covering a mind boggling array of topics many of which can be found at this link, as well as the full schedule:
I decided from early to attend to catch up on decades of the latest solar research, and Janice was excited to come along. Although she didn't attend the presentations and work sessions she did get to meet a lot of intelligent solar physics people - like at the 'Hive' breakfasts. She also enjoyed the bon homie at the reception on Monday night,
And we both enjoyed once again being in Boulder, one of our favorite places, including going to Sherpas one of the most popular eating places, featuring Nepalese food.
Monday got off with a bang as we sat at the breakfast tahle with workshop organizer Dean Pesnell and assistant Don Hathaway. Conversation quickly turned to the DOGE cuts at NOAA, with Dean speculating that up to ten percent of those giving presentations at the workshop likely joining" breadlines" by September. All this because of an "unelected moron taking a wrecking ball to critical agencies."
Later, at the invited talk and plenary session, Dean delivers a rousing justification of the question; Why Study the Sun. Well, because it's the only star we can access at close quarters, and the Solar Dynamic Observatory has now compiled 900 years worth of data in 15 years.. E.g. listing sites where interested people - not just researchers- can go to collect fantastic images, as well as data. E.g
And:
An excellent in depth overview of all the talks can be found at:
The 9:15 Monday presentation held the greatest interest for me, given the topic was deciphering solar flares, CMEs, SEPs and their predictions. She noted the critical role of the Solar Dynamics Observatory especially that "hundreds more predictive parameters" had been made available in the last 20 years. Most of these were unheard of at the time I published my own research in Solar Physics in 1983, 84. Yes, the 1980s marked an era of a lot of predictive work but it was prefaced on greater simplicity, i.e. large sunspots equal large flares.
Now, with AI and machine learning much more sophistication had emerged with less emphasis on human assumptions and selective bias. She pointed out this was also an opportunity to remind attendees that "outliers are your friends." I.e. don't ignore the data because it comes from an outlier.
Other presentations which grabbed interest included one by Canadian astronomer Louis Vuitte on sympathetic flares and their relation to angular separation. Following his talk we are introduced to the Gannon superstorm, which parameters are examined, and the plasma conditions that incepted it.
Wednesday night featured the sendoff dinner for Dean Pesnell, which we enjoyed:
The final presentation I attended was Thursday at 1:30 from Bibhuti Kuma Jah. This dealt with the Advective Transport (AFT) model. It’s been exceptionally successful in modelling the global solar magnetic field, as well as the evolution of Active Regions (ARs) over their lifetime. One of the pitfalls of the AFT model is that it can not predict the emergence of ARs in the farside, which impact models that rely on the global magnetic field for, e.g., calculating the global coronal and heliospheric magnetic field, the inferred structure of the heliospheric current sheet, and our knowledge of active regions appearing at the East solar limb, some of which may give rise to limb flares. These limb flares can have severe space weather impacts and significantly affect our satellites and communication systems. In this study, we address this limitation by incorporating farside unsigned magnetic flux maps derived from time distance helioseismic acoustic data.
These maps are derived from the Doppler measurements of the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) and are transformed into magnetic representations through a machine learning algorithm. Despite their innovative approach, these generated acoustic maps present notable challenges, such as significant uncertainties and the potential for false AR detections.
To mitigate these issues, Kumar Jha's work introduces an automated detection and tracking algorithm for ARs on the far-side, allowing us to evaluate their accuracy. The algorithm assigns properties such as tilt and flux to the far-side ARs, using information from their nearside manifestations if they rotate into view at the eastern limb. Subsequently, these characterized ARs are integrated into the AFT model. This is good to know so that researchers don't get too far ahead of themselves.
Thursday night we celebrated at Sherpas Nepalese Restaurant:
Friday, February 21, 2025
The Seven Barriers Breached Over Five Years To Give Us Tyrant Trump
"Donald Trump isn't a 'king' and we won't let him use New Yorkers as roadkill on his revenge tour. We'll see him in court."- NY Governor Kathy Hochul, after Trump proclaimed himself a "king" of New York
The path to Adolf Hitler's dictatorship and trashing of Germany as well as demolition of Europe and World War II, occurred in multiple steps - any one of which - if blocked, could have spared the world the decades of trauma wrought by the Nazis, and Third Reich. As Illinois governor J.B. Pritzker noted, the fall of the Weimar Republic basically took place in one month, three weeks and eight days. The fall of the American democratic experiment is on pace to occur even more rapidly unless Americans wake up and resist.
Basically, there have been seven barriers over two years to stopping our current nightmare of Trump unleashed. Any one of those - if effective - would have derailed the Traitor's return to unchecked power and a potential dictatorship.
We look at these again;
Barrier One Breached: Following his first impeachment - his quid pro quo telephone call to Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy - the Senate could have convicted the maggot and that would have ended any further presidential runs right there. They didn't and he moved on.
Barrier Two Breached: Following his 2nd impeachment, after fomenting the January 6, 2021 insurrection at the Capitol e.g.
the Senate again could have convicted the imp and prevented his return to power. Instead, the votes to do this fell 7 short and he continued his march toward an American autocracy.
Barrier Three Breached: The Colorado Supreme Court's ruling (under the 14th amendment, Section 3) to disqualify Trump from ever running again - was scotched by the Supreme Court.
The ruling, issued on Dec. 19, 2023, said in part:
“We conclude that because President Trump is disqualified from holding the office of President under Section Three (of the 14th Amendment), it would be a wrongful act under the Election Code for the Secretary to list President Trump as a candidate on the presidential primary ballot,” the court’s majority opinion says. “Therefore, the Secretary may not list President Trump’s name on the 2024 presidential primary ballot, nor may she count any write-in votes cast for him.”
This was a blockbuster decision to say the least and could have led to other states disqualifying the traitor from running. Instead, the 6 conservo cowards on the Supreme Court jettisoned the ruling claiming Trump could not be so disqualified given the president is not an official.
Barrier Four Breached: The failure to sentence Trump promptly after his conviction as a felon in the hush money case, e.g.
The prompt sentencing of this thug, in whatever real guise, would have delivered the proverbial 'scarlet letter' and made voters think twice before casting a ballot for him. This was not done.
Barrier Five Breached: Biden's disastrous debate performance against Trump in June 2024, e.g.
Biden One-Upped By Trump's "Flood The Zone With Lies" Strategy - But Don't Look For A 2nd Debate
Delivered renewed 'life' to a campaign by making the orange traitor appear more energetic and mentally able than Biden. The latter's subsequent backing out did not leave enough time for Kamala Harris to do what she needed to do to win.
Barrier Six Breached: The Supreme Court's granting Trump total immunity for all "official acts" while in office, e.g.
The ruling in July 2024 - effectively a months delay paralyzing other courts - indicated how far the court’s renegades ruthlessly abandoned the rule of law and the Constitution. Indeed, this single ruling of ‘presumptive immunity for official acts’ is similar in many ways to the changes made to the Weimar justice system after Hitler ascended to the Chancellorship in 1933. There followed the mutation to the Reich courts and the multifold ways the Nazis perverted state power - just as Trump is on the verge of doing now.
Barrier Seven Breached: The failure of American voters (on Nov. 5th, 2024) to finally put a check on Trump's aspirations to autocracy by doing what the Reep Senate and Supreme Court did not do. This, by voting him out once and for all. This they did not do, i.e.
Brane Space: How I Lost All Respect For My Country In The Space Of Four Hours
instead opting to put the cost of their eggs and other groceries over protecting democracy - a choice which they will rue for the rest of their days - given Trump will never make good on his "vow" to bring inflation down.
See Also:
by C.J. Polychroniou | February 22, 2025 - 6:34am | permalink
During his first month in office, President Donald Trump has signed a plethora of executive orders that have proclaimed a dramatic expansion of the powers of the executive branch. In his latest, issued on February 18 and entitled Ensuring Accountability for all Agencies, Trump aims to bring all independent federal regulatory agencies under the direct control of the chief executive. Unsurprisingly, the 47th president of the United States has already referred to himself as the “king” and may even envision himself as emperor, making the Napoleonic statement “He who saves his Country does not violate any Law” after several judges blocked a slew of his executive actions.
David M. Driesen, university professor at Syracuse University College of Law, says that Trump’s executive order to curb the authority of independent agencies is illegal and that the president is using unitary executive theory to establish a dictatorship. In the interview that follows, Driesen addresses Trump’s recent actions as well as the debate over unitary executive theory — a legal theory which says that the U.S. president can rule over the executive branch with absolute power. In two recent cases the far right Supreme Court has signaled increasing openness to this theory, once considered a fringe interpretation of the Constitution. Legal scholars and advocates, including Driesen, are now sounding the alarm that Trump’s seizure of dictatorial executive power may succeed with the court’s approval.
And:
by Robert Reich | February 25, 2025 - 6:25am | permalink
— from Robert Reich's Substack
Friends,
What is occurring now in the United States has very little to do with making the government more “efficient,” or rooting out “incompetence,” or “depoliticizing” parts of government that should be nonpartisan.
Nor is it motivated chiefly by Trump’s desire get rid of “D.E.I.” and “woke,” or “weaponize” law enforcement, or establish white Christian nationalism, or wreak vengeance on his enemies.
The real story is this.
In every part of the government that involves the use of force — the military, the investigation and prosecution of crimes, the authority to arrest, the capacity to hold individuals in jail — Trump is putting into power people who are more loyal to him than they are to the United States.
And:
And:
And:
Brane Space: Trump Declares He's Now Beyond All Laws Because Of "Divine Orders" - He's Flat Wrong
And:
by Henry Giroux | February 21, 2025 - 6:13am | permalink
This is reprinted from the introduction to Henry Giroux’s latest book, The Burden of Conscience.
“We live in a world where the funeral matters more than the dead, the wedding more than love and the physical rather than the intellect. We live in the container culture, which despises the content.”
—Eduardo Galeano
At the heart of this book lies a stark truth: Americans, and people worldwide, are facing a moment of grave danger. This is not just a political crisis but a moral one, demanding that the search for truth be met with an urgent recognition—both individual and collective—that democracy itself is under siege. The United States is embroiled in a historic battle over the soul of democracy, the values that sustain it, and the institutions that create citizens ready to defend it. Civic culture, shared values, and the commitment to the public good are being dismantled by the rise of twenty-first-century authoritarians who camouflage their disdain for democracy by championing unreservedly for “illiberal democracy”—a deceptive code for a new breed of fascism. In an age of shrinking political horizons, the unpalatable and unthinkable have not only been normalized but airbrushed into acceptability.
And:
by Thom Hartmann | February 22, 2025 - 6:27am | permalink
Former Republican Congressman Adam Kinzinger asks a question no current Republican politician appears willing to say out loud for fear that Musk, Trump, or other rightwing billionaires will use the corrupt Citizens United decision to blow them out of the water politically with a multimillion-dollar primary challenge:
“[A]s I watch the behavior of our political leaders, the comments of an ever-increasingly unhinged Trump, and the growing indifference of many Americans toward our role in the world, I have to ask a painful question: Are we now the bad guys?”
It’s a helluva question.
Our nation’s Founders overthrew a king in 1776, and paid a huge price for it. Altogether, seventeen of the fifty-six signers of the Declaration of Independence were wiped out by the war they declared.
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