The leaked Alito draft that the Trump-constructed Supreme Court majority plans to reject Roe v. Wade next month is now disputed only by hopeless Pollyannas and blockheads. The hitherto longstanding view that a woman has the constitutional right to decide whether she wants to end a pregnancy is now barely 7 weeks from being history Further, in at least 13 states, laws banning abortion could kick into place almost immediately. See e.g.
None of this deadly serious stuff has evidently made it into the noggins of some pro-choice activists.
As reported in a WSJ piece barely two weeks ago ('Abortion Rights Activists Press Biden', May 21-22, p. A5)
"President Biden is facing calls from increasingly frustrated advocates to be more vocal in his support for abortion rights. While Mr. Biden has expressed his support for Roe, the 1973 decision that established a constitutional right to abortion, he hasn’t given a speech on abortion, met at the White House with abortion providers or participated in a recent day of protest rallies around the nation."
But these frustrated activists are putting the cart before the horse and also jeopardizing Democratic retention of congress in the fall. The former is so given Biden's White House has already said it won’t detail its next steps on protecting abortion rights until a final ruling. That will not be until next month and until then activists and pro-choice advocates need to keep their powder dry as well as outrage. Peaking too soon in this political season cold be calamitous come November.
Besides which the president has already directed the Gender Policy Council and the White House Counsel’s Office to work on plans for how to respond if Roe is overturned. The point is that action cannot simply be reactive it must be thoughtful and include all aspects. That is ongoing as aides are in the midst of preparing messaging strategies. especially nuanced ones needed for moderate left Catholics and millions of swing voters on which the November election may turn. Especially given the signs so far are the Democratic turnout will be depressed and discouraged in contrast to the MAGA faction.
Beyond all that, as I noted in previous posts, there are limited policy and legal moves the White House can make right now. For example, the notion of codifying Roe is out of the question given there will never be the 60 votes to get it done - and Manchin and Sinema don't wish to put aside the filibuster.
Never mind, some revved up advocates - like Amy Hagstrom Miller- of Whole Women's Health (an abortion provider) don't want to wait until the SC ruling. According to her:
"This is an emergency. It’s not just a belief or a feeling. It’s a human-rights issue, For them to say, ‘Vote in November,’ when we voted them into the majority. We have a majority everywhere! I don’t feel like they’re doing what they can.”
Amy, Amy, take a deep breath and think before you speak or leap. The "majorities" you see "everywhere" are a mirage. First, they are paper thin, 50-50 with only VP Kamala Harris to break votes in case of a tie. And second, two Dems - Manchin and Sinema - have become more like Reep obstructionists refusing to even get Biden's green-based infrastructure package passed. And they made it clear they will not break the filibuster to codify Roe. One would have thought this would be clear to Miller given she sat in a September roundtable discussion with Kamala Harris.
Further, inveighing against the November vote now could well lead to catastrophe. Hagstrom is also failing to process that recent polls have shown abortion restrictions are favored by 48% of voters (WSJ, April 2-3, p. A4). That is nearly half, which is another reason Biden and the Dems need to tread cautiously right now. Even before the Supreme Court leak, a Wall Street Journal survey showed that more American voters favored the idea of a ban on abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy than were opposed to it.
One good sign, according to Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research is poll numbers were already starting to shift in favor of Democrats in advance of the SC ruling. But a wise person will not jump the gun, and with a volatile issue like this - with too many voters still putting inflation first in their priorities - we can't afford to blow it.
Right now, as Horwitt shows, key groups -mainly suburban and younger woman - are "expected to be motivated by concerns about abortion and whether elected leaders are doing enough to ensure it." But clearly the GOP leaders not, and are in haste to assert they will enact even more draconian, punitive laws (like in Louisiana and Oklahoma) if Roe falls. Ladies, the Reeps are not your friends, and mark me will not solve the inflation problem. If anything they will make it worse by giving corporations carte blanche to raise prices even more, using systemic (supply-chain based) inflation as a dodge or cover.
The second thing is the abortion issue isn't simply about the right to the procedure but the control of one's life and decisions. The radicalized QAnon, Trumpite GOP want to take that bodily autonomy away from women, wherever they are, and render them simply forced birthing vessels, even after rape or incest.
The turnout of the D-vote in November, as Joy Reid stated last Thursday, will therefore be as crucial as the one in 2020 to finally root out Trump. There will be no second chances given how the Reeps are headstrong moving to ensure democracy will replaced by anocracy or straight fascist autocracy if they win. Whatever the bane or misery from higher food and gas prices for so many, that misery will be multiplied tenfold if voters let the GOP control congress again, expecting them to miraculously improve the economy. Sorry, that's like hoping aliens will finally abduct Trump from Mar-a-lago.
Citizens, instead of seeing responsible governance, will see again a demented cult devoted to grandstanding with multiple bogus investigations, at least one attempted bogus impeachment of Biden, and no movement at all on the exploding automatic weapon shootings - which saw 12 more over the weekend.
All the time appealing to white grievance and victimization, while they whittle away at voting and abortion access. So making an election bet on the Reeps is not a bet any sane voter ought to make, not now, not this year and likely not ever. Morgan Hopkins, interim executive director of campaigns and strategies for the abortion rights group 'All Above All', praised former press secretary Jen Psaki for talking about the impact the Alito-predicted draft ruling would have on women. This will be more widely discussed and circulated after the actual ruling next month. Then, we can also expect more direct engagement from Biden and his team.
In the meantime, our primary goal has to be sustained excitement of our voter base - as well as expanding it ahead of the critical midterms - by education and savvy political strategy. It will be a long and emotional 6 months but we have to succeed in the effort, not just for American women but for all U.S. citizens who value this last great experiment in democracy. We can't let ours fall like so many others have.
Remember this: The GOP always pounds its self righteous chest about being "pro life" - but will not lift a finger, have not thus far, to even limit the ghastly plague of assault weapon slaughter. In fact they even brag about their automatic weapons stash, fondling each, almost to the tune of a fetish, e.g.
by David Badash | June 3, 2022 - 7:47am | permalink
Do you really want these fuckers controlling both houses of congress- as well as your own bodies?
See Also:
by Joan McCarter | June 1, 2022 - 7:24am | permalink
Excerpt:
As soon as next week, the U.S. Supreme Court is almost certainly going to make official the draft opinion overturning Roe v. Wade leaked in early May. When that happens, at least 26 states will likely ban abortion, and 13 states will automatically do so. At least a dozen—Arkansas, Idaho, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, and Utah—will classify either (or both) obtaining or providing abortions as a felony punishable by prison time.
But making abortion a felony does not mean that it has to be prosecuted, and an increasing number of prosecutors are standing up to say they will not do so and some localities are setting themselves up as safe havens from that law. Austin, Texas, is the first major city in a red state to shield its residents from enforcement by the state and decriminalize abortion.
No comments:
Post a Comment